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Abstract Background We analyze the forest carbon stock development following the recent historically unprecedented dieback of coniferous stands in the Czech Republic. The drought-induced bark-beetle infestation resulted in record-high sanitary logging and total harvest more than doubled from the previous period. It turned Czech forestry from a long-term carbon sink offsetting about 6% of the country's greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 to a significant source of CO2 emissions in recent years (2018–2021). In 2020, the forestry sector contributed nearly 10% to the country's overall GHG emissions. Using the nationally calibrated Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) at a regional (NUTS3) spatial resolution, we analyzed four scenarios of forest carbon stock development until 2070. Two critical points arise: the short-term prognosis for reducing current emissions from forestry and the implementation of adaptive forest management focused on tree species change and sustained carbon accumulation. Results This study used four different spruce forest dieback scenarios to assess the impact of adaptive forest management on the forest carbon stock change and CO2 emissions, tree species composition, harvest possibilities, and forest structure in response to the recent unprecedented calamitous dieback in the Czech Republic. The model analysis indicates that Czech forestry may stabilize by 2025 Subsequently, it may become a sustained sink of about 3 Mt CO2 eq./year (excluding the contribution of harvested wood products), while enhancing forest resilience by the gradual implementation of adaptation measures. The speed of adaptation is linked to harvest intensity and severity of the current calamity. Under the pessimistic Black scenario, the proportion of spruce stands declines from the current 43–20% by 2070, in favor of more suited tree species such as fir and broadleaves. These species would also constitute over 50% of the harvest potential, increasingly contributing to harvest levels like those generated by Czech forestry prior to the current calamity. The standing stock would only be recovered in 50 years under the optimistic Green scenario. Conclusion The results show progress of adaptive management by implementing tree species change and quantify the expected harvest and mitigation potential in Czech forestry until 2070.

The reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) framework has been implemented over the past decade, and has led to a restructuring of forest governance systems in host countries. In the case of Lao People’s Democratic Republic, which is promoting REDD+, activities have been implemented at project, sub-national, and national scales. Project-scale REDD+ is assumed to be compatible with small-scale forestry, and usually targets local people to enhance participatory forest management through technology transfer. Such projects were also supported by foreign governments under bilateral cooperation or by private funding. In the case of sub-national- or national-scale REDD+, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic government aims to develop a system of forest monitoring, as well as related structures required by international REDD+ entities. These activities are supported by substantial funding from multilateral organizations. Lessons learned from project-scale REDD+ in northern Lao People’s Democratic Republic showed a gap in expectations among different donors and recipients regarding how to implement REDD+, in particular how to reduce dependency on forest resources in rural areas, and how to estimate and account for greenhouse gas emissions reductions with consistent methodologies at different scales. Such differences are related to the attitudes of local people toward participation, and those of the private entities that fund projects and ground-based activities. In future REDD+ schemes, the structural network or structural social capital among project-, sub- national-, and national-scale activities should be reconsidered to enhance the continued participation of stakeholders and make use of their accumulated experience and knowledge of small-scale forestry management.

Abstract Short rotation plantations are often considered as holding vast potentials for future global bioenergy supply. In contrast to raising biomass harvests in forests, purpose‐grown biomass does not interfere with forest carbon (C) stocks. Provided that agricultural land can be diverted from food and feed production without impairing food security, energy plantations on current agricultural land appear as a beneficial option in terms of renewable, climate‐friendly energy supply. However, instead of supporting energy plantations, land could also be devoted to natural succession. It then acts as a long‐term C sink which also results in C benefits. We here compare the sink strength of natural succession on arable land with the C saving effects of bioenergy from plantations. Using geographically explicit data on global cropland distribution among climate and ecological zones, regionally specific C accumulation rates are calculated with IPCC default methods and values. C savings from bioenergy are given for a range of displacement factors (DFs), acknowledging the varying efficiency of bioenergy routes and technologies in fossil fuel displacement. A uniform spatial pattern is assumed for succession and bioenergy plantations, and the considered timeframes range from 20 to 100 years. For many parameter settings—in particular, longer timeframes and high DFs—bioenergy yields higher cumulative C savings than natural succession. Still, if woody biomass displaces liquid transport fuels or natural gas‐based electricity generation, natural succession is competitive or even superior for timeframes of 20–50 years. This finding has strong implications with climate and environmental policies: Freeing land for natural succession is a worthwhile low‐cost natural climate solution that has many co‐benefits for biodiversity and other ecosystem services. A considerable risk, however, is C stock losses (i.e., emissions) due to disturbances or land conversion at a later time.

A comprehensive assessment of European forest-based biomass harvest potentials, their future utilization and implications on international wood product markets and forest carbon dynamics requires the capability to model forest resource development as well as global markets for wood-based commodities with sufficient geographical and product detail and, most importantly, their interactions. To this aim, we apply a model framework fully integrating a European forest resource model and a global economic forest sector model. In a business-as-usual (BaU) scenario, European Union harvests increase seven percent by 2030 compared to past levels (485 million m3 on 2000-2012 average and 517 million m3 in 2030). The subsequent annual carbon stock change is a ten percent reduction by 2030 compared to 2000-2012 average (equal to 119.3 Tg C yr-1), corresponding to decreasing carbon-dioxide removal by the European forests. A second, high mobilization scenario (HM), characterized by the full utilization of the potential wood supply and a doubling of EU wood pellets consumption, was designed to explore potential impacts on forest carbon dynamics and international wood product markets under intensive exploitation of biomass resources. In the HM scenario, harvest increases by 55% (754 million m3 in 2030) compared to the BaU scenario. Fuelwood accounts for this increase in harvest levels as overall competition effects from increased wood pellets consumption outweighs synergies for material uses of wood, resulting in slightly reduced harvests of industrial roundwood. As expected, this increasing harvest level would significantly impair carbon-dioxide forest sequestration from the atmosphere in the medium term (-83% in 2030, compared to 2000-2012 average).