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Introduction. For the effective use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), it is required to take into account the impact of atmospheric environmental factors. Based on the existing level of development of the research and methodological apparatus, it is impossible to determine the probability of damage to the UAV under the conditions of complex exposure to atmospheric environmental factors and to assess the feasibility of further performance of the flight task. Violation of the UAV operation process is caused by the influence of atmospheric precipitation, wind and temperature conditions of the environment. The work aims at the development of a methodology for determining the probability of damage to UAV as a result of exposure to atmospheric environmental factors, as well as to evaluate the performance of the software package implementing the developed algorithm using triangular, trapezoidal, pentagonal, and Gaussian membership functions.Materials and Methods. A technique is proposed that makes it possible, using the theory of fuzzy logic, to determine the probability of damage to the UAV with inaccuracies and uncertainties in the description of atmospheric effects of the environment. It takes into account possible atmospheric forcing and enables to determine the probability of damage to the UAV under various atmospheric influences. The computational complexity of the algorithm implementing the technique depends significantly on the number of qualitative assessments of atmospheric impacts on UAV.Results. A method for determining the probability of damage to UAV as a result of exposure to atmospheric environmental factors based on fuzzy sets (triangular, trapezoidal, pentagonal, Gaussian) was proposed and tested. The use of fuzzy sets for estimating the conditions of the UAV application environment was described. An algorithm was developed to determine the probability of damage to the UAV as a result of exposure to atmospheric environmental factors. A computational experiment was carried out to determine the complexity of calculating the probability of UAV damage as a result of atmospheric forcing under various environmental conditions: «moderate conditions» at a wind speed of 3 m/s, precipitation intensity of 0.8 mm/h, and air temperature of 5 °C; «very heavy conditions» of the external environment at a wind speed of 12 m/s, precipitation intensity 3.5 mm/h, and air temperature of –6 ºС. It was established that the use of triangular membership functions to calculate the probability of damage to the UAV as a result of atmospheric forcing provided higher performance compared to the rest ones (trapezoidal, pentagonal, Gaussian).Discussion and Conclusions. The values of the UAV damage probabilities obtained during the implementation of the methodology under atmospheric environmental influences can be used at the pre-flight preparation stage and during the flight to assess the feasibility of further performance of the flight task. Based on the analysis of the application of the considered forms of membership functions, recommendations for their application are given. The use of algorithms with triangular membership functions will provide high performance of UAV control systems (UAV CS).

Abstract To mitigate temporal aliasing effects in monthly mean global gravity fields from the GRACE and GRACE‐FO satellite tandem missions, both tidal and non‐tidal background models describing high‐frequency mass variability in atmosphere and oceans are needed. To quantify tides in the atmosphere, we exploit the higher spatial (31 km) and temporal (1 hr) resolution provided by the latest atmospheric ECMWF reanalysis, ERA5. The oceanic response to atmospheric tides is subsequently modeled with the general ocean circulation model MPIOM (in a recently revised TP10L40 configuration that includes the feedback of self‐attraction and loading to the momentum equations and has an improved bathymetry around Antarctica) as well as the shallow water model TiME (employing a much higher spatial resolution and more elaborate tidal dissipation than MPIOM). Both ocean models consider jointly the effects of atmospheric pressure variations and surface wind stress. We present the characteristics of 16 waves beating at frequencies in the 1–6 cpd band and find that TiME typically outperforms the corresponding results from MPIOM and also FES2014b as measured from comparisons with tide gauge data. Moreover, we note improvements in GRACE‐FO laser ranging interferometer range‐acceleration pre‐fit residuals when employing the ocean tide solutions from TiME, in particular, for the S1 spectral line with most notable improvements around Australia, India, and the northern part of South America.

A regional, high-resolution reanalysis was analyzed to explore extreme heat loss events in the Northern Red Sea (NRS) and their links to specific regional atmospheric circulation patterns. Such events are determinant for the overturning circulation of the Red Sea and occur frequently between November and March, with maximum frequency during December and January. During these events, the most intense heat loss, often with daily-averaged values lower than -1000 W/m2, is found over the southern half of the Gulf of Aqaba and along the western coastline of the open NRS. Analyses of the spatial modes of variability of these events suggest that the majority of them extend over the entire NRS in an almost uniform way; however, secondary, nonuniform patterns related to regional adjustment in the wind field are also identified. The uniform cold outbursts are associated with distinct atmospheric circulation patterns, which favor the transfer of cold air masses from higher latitudes over the eastern Mediterranean Sea via a strong northwest wind field. Nonuniform events affect considerable parts of the NRS and occur when cold and dry air masses reach the NRS through the Middle East and the northern part of the Arabian Peninsula. The regional sea level pressure drives a clockwise rotation of the wind field that ultimately blows from the northeast/east direction. This rotation of the wind field favors local intensification and lee areas defined by the complex topography and characteristic gaps in the mountain chain along the eastern coastline of the NRS, reflecting the differentiations in the spatial distribution of the heat flux minima.

Sub-hourly heavy precipitation events (SHHPs) associated with regional low-pressure (RegL) systems in Portugal are a natural hazard that may have significant socioeconomic implications, namely in agriculture. Therefore, in this paper, their dynamic and thermodynamic drivers are analysed. Three weather stations were used to isolate SHHPs from 2000 to 2022. Higher precipitation variability is found in southern Portugal, with a higher ratio of extreme events on fewer rainy days. This study shows that these SHHP events are associated with low-pressure systems located just to the west of the Iberian Peninsula. These systems exhibit a cold core, particularly strong at mid-levels, and a positive vorticity anomaly, which is stronger in the upper troposphere, extending downward to low levels. These conditions drive differential positive vorticity advection and, therefore, rising motion to the east of the low-pressure systems. Moreover, at low levels, these systems promote moisture advection over western Iberia, also generating instability conditions, which are assessed by instability indices (Convective available potential energy, the Total-Totals index, and the K-index). The combination of these conditions drives heavy precipitation events. Lastly, the total column cloud ice water revealed higher values for the heavier precipitation events, suggesting that it may be a useful predictor of such events.

Characteristics of marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the East Asian Marginal Seas (EAMS) were investigated using the daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature for 37 years (1982–2018), focusing on seasonal changes and regional differences. The summer MHWs occur 54% more frequently (2.7 events/decade) in a relatively wide area than in other seasons. The strong (up to 3.7 °C) and long-lasting (up to 38 days/event) winter MHWs are concentrated along the subpolar front (SPF) in the East/Japan Sea (EJS) where the MHWs are 20% longer (2.2 days/event) than in the Yellow and East China Seas (YECS). The summer MHWs are primarily driven by increased shortwave radiation associated with reduced cloud cover and latent cooling from the weakened wind over the western flank of developing subtropical highs. Driving mechanisms of the winter MHWs differ by region. The YECS MHWs occur mainly due to the atmospheric processes associated with weakening continental highs, while the EJS MHWs are largely driven by the northward shift of the SPF. Although large-scale atmospheric processes primarily drive the summer MHWs occurring in a wide area in the EAMS, our findings suggest that ocean processes can be major contributors to intensified MHW generation in limited areas, especially in winter.

Sinking particles are a critical conduit for the export of organic material from surface waters to the deep ocean. Despite their importance in oceanic carbon cycling, little is known about the biotic composition and seasonal variability of sinking particles reaching abyssal depths. Herein, sinking particle flux data, collected in the deep Ierapetra Basin for a three-year period (June 2010 to June 2013), have been examined at the light of atmospheric and oceanographic parameters and main mass components (lithogenic, opal, carbonates, nitrogen, and organic carbon), stable isotopes of particulate organic carbon (POC) and source-specific lipid biomarkers. Our aim is to improve the current understanding of the dynamics of particle fluxes and the linkages between atmospheric dynamics and ocean biogeochemistry shaping the export of organic matter in the deep Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Overall, particle fluxes showed seasonality and interannual variability over the studied period. POC fluxes peaked in spring April–May 2012 (12.2 mg m−2 d−1) related with extreme atmospheric forcing. Summer export was approximately fourfold higher than mean wintertime, fall and springtime (except for the episodic event of spring 2012), fueling efficient organic carbon sequestration. Lipid biomarkers indicate a high relative contribution of natural and anthropogenic, marine- and land-derived POC during both spring (April–May) and summer (June–July) reaching the deep-sea floor. Moreover, our results highlight that both seasonal and episodic pulses are crucial for POC export, while the coupling of extreme weather events and atmospheric deposition can trigger the influx of both marine labile carbon and anthropogenic compounds to the deep Levantine Sea. Finally, the comparison of time series data of sinking particulate flux with the corresponding biogeochemical parameters data previously reported for surface sediment samples from the deep-sea shed light on the benthic–pelagic coupling in the study area. Thus, this study underscores that accounting the seasonal and episodic pulses of organic carbon into the deep sea is critical in modeling the depth and intensity of natural and anthropogenic POC sequestration, and for a better understanding of the global carbon cycle.

One of the effects of climate change is the rise of sea level, which poses an important threat to coastal areas. Therefore, the protection and management of coastal ecosystems as well as human infrastructures and constructions require an accurate knowledge of those changes occurring at a local scale. In this study, long time series of sea level from tide gauges distributed along the southern (Atlantic) and eastern (Mediterranean) Spanish coasts were analyzed. Linear trends were calculated for two periods, from early 1940s to 2018 and from 1990 to 2018. Values for the former period ranged between 0.68 and 1.22 mm/year. These trends experienced a significant increase for the second period, when they ranged between 1.5 and 4.6 mm/year. Previous research analyzed the effect of atmospheric forcing in the Mediterranean Sea by means of 2D numerical models, and the steric contribution was directly evaluated by the integration of density along the water column. In this study, the effect of atmospheric forcing and the thermosteric and halosteric contributions on coastal sea level were empirically determined by means of statistical linear models that established which factors affected sea level at each location and what the numerical response of the observed sea level was to the contributing factors. Atmospheric pressure and the west–east component of the wind hada significant contribution to the sea level variability at most of the tide gauges. The thermosteric and halosteric components of sea level also contributed to the sea level variability at all the tide gauges, with the only exception of Alicante. Atmospheric forcing and the steric components of sea level experienced long-term trends. The combination of such trends, with the response of sea level to these factors, allowed us to estimate their contribution to the observed sea level trends. The part of these trends not explained by the atmospheric variables and the steric contributions was attributed to mass addition. Trends associated with mass addition ranged between 0.6 and 1.2 mm/year for the period 1948–2018 and between 1.0 and 4.5 mm/year for the period 1990–2018.

The Mediterranean Sea, strategically situated across a dynamic frontier line that separates two regions with different climates (Europe and North Africa), has been the focus of attention of many studies dealing with its thermohaline circulation, deep water formation processes or heat and freshwater budgets. Large-scale atmospheric forcing has been found to play an important role in these topics and attention has been renewed in climatic indices that can be used as a proxy for atmospheric variability. Among them, the North Atlantic oscillation, the East Atlantic or the East Atlantic–West Russia patterns have been widely addressed but much less attention has been devoted to a Mediterranean mode, the Mediterranean oscillation. This overview summarizes the recent advances that have been achieved in the understanding of these climatic indices and their influence on the functioning of the Mediterranean from a physical point of view. The important role of the Mediterranean oscillation is emphasized and the most relevant aspects of the other indices are revisited and discussed.

Restoration of peatlands after peat extraction could be a benefit to the climate system. However a multi-year ecosystem-scale assessment of net carbon (C) sequestration is needed. We investigate the climate impact of active peatland restoration (rewetting and revegetating) using a chronosequence of C gas exchange measurements across post-extraction Canadian peatlands. An atmospheric perturbation model computed the instantaneous change in radiative forcing of CO _2 and CH _4 emissions/uptake over 500 years. We found that using emission factors specific to an active restoration technique resulted in a radiative forcing reduction of 89% within 20 years compared to IPCC Tier 1 emission factors based on a wide range of rewetting activities. Immediate active restoration achieved a neutral climate impact (excluding C losses in the removed peat) about 155 years earlier than did a 20 year delay in restoration. A management plan that includes prompt active restoration is key to utilizing peatland restoration as a climate change mitigation strategy.

The hindcasts of residual sea surface are very useful tools for the design of infrastructures and coastal management applications, as well as for scientific studies on sea-level variability. In this paper we present VANI2-ERA, a new hindcast of residual sea surface covering the Mediterranean Sea and a sector of the NE Atlantic Ocean with a spatial resolution of 1/6°×1/4°. VANI2-ERA was obtained with a barotropic version of the HAMSOM model forced with a dynamical downscaling of the ERA40 reanalysis spanning the period 1958-2008. This new hindcast represents an update of the well-known HIPOCAS hindcast, which has been the reference dataset for the last few years. VANI2-ERA has been extensively validated with tide gauge observations distributed all around Southern Europe and compared with four other hindcasts, including HIPOCAS. The new hindcast shows smaller root mean square errors, higher correlation and higher variance reduction than any previous hindcasts at most stations. However, its performance is poorer than HIPOCAS in reproducing the magnitude of extreme events. Residual sea surface trends were also obtained and their uncertainty was assessed by means of a comparison between VANI2-ERA and HIPOCAS for the common period 1958-2001. Differences of up to 0.4±0.1 mm yr–1 between the two datasets are derived from the differences between the ERA40 and NCEP atmospheric reanalyses. The VANI2-ERA hindcast was also used to compare the variability of the period 1998-2008 with past decades, obtaining that the standard deviation of sea-level residuals has been 5-10% lower than for the period 1958-2008. The period 1998-2008 also shows a 20% reduction in the magnitude of positive extreme events, while negative extreme events have not changed significantly with respect to past decades. Finally, the trends computed for the period 1998-2008 are slightly positive (+0.11±0.04 mm yr–1) compared with the clearly negative trends obtained for the period 1958-2008.

Among the numerous processes that govern the functioning of a lake ecosystem, the regime of dissolved oxygen (DO) is of primary importance. The DO content is strongly affected by the temperature regime, mixing conditions and by the duration of the ice-covered period. These are formed due to atmospheric forcing and are, therefore, subject to variations in regional climate. Despite the large amount of data revealing the physical effect on the biological and chemical regimes in lakes, there is still insufficient understanding, both qualitative and quantitative, of how a lake ecosystem would be affected by changes in the lake temperature and mixing conditions due to changes in the atmospheric forcing. Below, the study of shallow lakes’ response to climatic changes using the coupled FLake–FLakeEco modelling system is presented. The results obtained reveal the extreme vulnerability of the lakes’ ecosystems to changes in atmospheric forcing. In ‘future’ climate the permanent existence of potentially dangerous anaerobic zones in shallow lakes is expected. The projected decreased oxygen concentrations are caused by: (1) the reduced oxygen flux from the atmosphere to the lakes due to increased temperature; and (2) strengthened density stratification of the water columns which would prevent aeration of the near-bottom layers.

In this paper we present new data from ship-based measurements and two-year observations from moorings in the Laptev Sea along with Russian historical data. The observations from the Laptev Sea in 2007 indicate that the bottom water temperatures on the mid-shelf increased by more than 3°C compared to the long-term mean as a consequence of the unusually high summertime surface water temperatures. Such a distinct increase in near-bottom temperatures has not been observed before. Remnants of the relatively warm bottom water occupied the mid-shelf from September 2007 until April 2008. Strong polynya activity during March to May 2007 caused more summertime open water and therefore warmer sea surface temperatures in the Laptev Sea. During the ice-free period in August and September 2007, the prevailing cyclonic atmospheric circulation deflected the freshwater plume of the River Lena to the east, which increased the salinity on the mid-shelf north of the Lena Delta. The resulting weaker density stratification allowed more vertical mixing of the water column during storms in late September and early October, leading to the observed warming of the near-bottom layer in the still ice-free Laptev Sea. In summer and autumn 2008, when the density stratification was stronger and sea surface temperatures were close to the long-term mean, no near-bottom water warming was observed. Warmer water temperatures near the seabed may also impact the stability of the shelf's submarine permafrost.

Considerable interannual differences were observed in river water and sea-ice meltwater inventory values derived from δ18O and salinity data in the Eurasian Basin along the continental margin of the Laptev Sea in the summers of 1993 and 1995, and in the summers of 2005 and 2006 during Nansen and Amundsen Basins Observational system (NABOS) expeditions. The annually different pattern in river and sea-ice meltwater inventories remain closely linked for all of the years studied, which indicates that source regions and transport mechanisms for both river water and sea-ice formation are largely similar over the relatively shallow Laptev Sea Shelf. A simple Ekman trajectory model for surface Lagrangian particles based solely on wind forcing can explain the main features observed between years with significantly different wind patterns and vorticities, and can also explain differences in river water distributions observed for years with a generally similar offshore wind setting. An index based on this simplified trajectory model is rather similar to the vorticity index, but reflects the hydrology on the shelf better for distinctive years. This index is not correlated with the Arctic Oscillation, but rather with a local mode of oscillation, which controls the outflow and distribution of the Eurasian Basin major freshwater source on an annual timescale.

Storm surge events have the potential to cause devastating damage to coastal communities. The magnitude of their impacts highlights the need for increased accuracy and real-time forecasting and predictability of storm surge. In this study, we assess two meteorological forcing configurations to hindcast the storm surge of Hurricane Sandy, and ultimately support the improvement of storm surge forecasts. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is coupled to the ADvanced CIRCulation Model (ADCIRC) to determine water elevations. We perform four coupled simulations and compare storm surge estimates resulting from the use of a parametric vortex model and a full-physics atmospheric model. One simulation is forced with track-based meteorological data calculated from WRF, while three simulations are forced with the full wind and pressure field outputs from WRF simulations of varying resolutions. Experiments were compared to an ADCIRC simulation forced by National Hurricane Center best track data, as well as to station observations. Our results indicated that given accurate meteorological best track data, a parametric vortex model can accurately forecast maximum water elevations, improving upon the use of a full-physics coupled atmospheric-surge model. In the absence of a best track, atmospheric forcing in the form of full wind and pressure field from a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation prove reliable for storm surge forecasting.

This paper presents a method to produce long term climatic forcing fields to force SVAT models in off-line mode. The objective is to increase the temporal frequency of existent climate projections databases from daily frequency to hourly time step to be used in impact climate studies. A statistical clustering k-means method is used. A tens of clusters seems to be enough to describe the climate variability in term of wind regimes, precipitation and thermal and humidity amplitude. These clusters are identified in the future projections of climate and reconstructed sequences at hourly frequency are obtained for all the forcing variables needed by a SVAT model, typically: air temperature, specific humidity, wind force and direction, precipitation, direct short-wave radiation, downward long-wave radiation and scattered short-wave radiation. Ten years of observations from two sites in France are used to illustrate the method: the Chartres station (Paris) and Blagnac station (Toulouse). The reconstruction algorithm is able to produce diurnal cycles that fits well with hourly series from observations (1998-2008; 1961-1990) and from climatic scenarios (1961-2100). The diurnal amplitude and mean value is well represented for variables with marked daily cycle as temperature or humidity. Changes in the mean wind direction are represented and, to a certain extent, changes in wind intensity are also retained. The mean precipitation is conserved during the day even if the method is not able to reproduce the short rain picks variability. Precipitation is used as input in the clusterization process so in clusters representative of rainy days some diurnal variability is nevertheless retained.