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We identified a cluster of mpox exposures among key populations in Kenya through retrospective serologic screening. We identified strong seropositivity among sex workers and gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men. These findings demonstrate the need for increased mpox surveillance among mpox-endemic and mpox-endemic–adjacent regions in Africa.

In September 2022, deaths of pigs manifesting pox-like lesions caused by swinepox virus were reported in Tshuapa Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo. Two human mpox cases were found concurrently in the surrounding community. Specific diagnostics and robust sequencing are needed to characterize multiple poxviruses and prevent potential poxvirus transmission.

We report a cluster of clade I monkeypox virus infections linked to sexual contact in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Case investigations resulted in 5 reverse transcription PCR–confirmed infections; genome sequencing suggest they belonged to the same transmission chain. This finding demonstrates that mpox transmission through sexual contact extends beyond clade IIb.

Combining genomic and geospatial data can be useful for understanding Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in high-burden tuberculosis (TB) settings. We performed whole-genome sequencing on M. tuberculosis DNA extracted from sputum cultures from a population-based TB study conducted in Gaborone, Botswana, during 2012–2016. We determined spatial distribution of cases on the basis of shared genotypes among isolates. We considered clusters of isolates with ≤5 single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified by whole-genome sequencing to indicate recent transmission and clusters of ≥10 persons to be outbreaks. We obtained both molecular and geospatial data for 946/1,449 (65%) participants with culture-confirmed TB; 62 persons belonged to 5 outbreaks of 10–19 persons each. We detected geospatial clustering in just 2 of those 5 outbreaks, suggesting heterogeneous spatial patterns. Our findings indicate that targeted interventions applied in smaller geographic areas of high-burden TB identified using integrated genomic and geospatial data might help interrupt TB transmission during outbreaks.

Abstract Background Little research has been conducted on the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on either birth outcomes or the ability of archival medical records to accurately capture these outcomes. Our study objective is thus to compare the prevalence of preterm birth, stillbirth, low birth weight (LBW), small for gestational age (SGA), congenital microcephaly, and neonatal bloodstream infection (NBSI) before and during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Methods We conducted a facility-based retrospective cohort study in which identified cases of birth outcomes were tabulated at initial screening and subcategorized according to level of diagnostic certainty using Global Alignment of Immunization Safety Assessment in pregnancy (GAIA) definitions. Documentation of any birth complications, delivery type, and maternal vaccination history were also evaluated. The prevalence of each birth outcome was compared in the pre-COVID-19 (i.e., July 2019 to February 2020) and intra-COVID-19 (i.e., March to August 2020) periods via two-sample z-test for equality of proportions. Results In total, 14,300 birth records were abstracted. Adverse birth outcomes were identified among 22.0% and 14.3% of pregnancies in the pre-COVID-19 and intra-COVID-19 periods, respectively. For stillbirth, LBW, SGA, microcephaly, and NBSI, prevalence estimates were similar across study periods. However, the prevalence of preterm birth in the intra-COVID-19 period was significantly lower than that reported during the pre-COVID-19 period (8.6% vs. 11.5%, p

Despite the successes in wild-type polio eradication, poor vaccine coverage in the DRC has led to the occurrence of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus outbreaks. This cross-sectional population-based survey provides an update to previous poliovirus-neutralizing antibody seroprevalence studies in the DRC and quantifies risk factors for under-immunization and parental knowledge that guide vaccine decision making. Among the 964 children between 6 and 35 months in our survey, 43.8% (95% CI: 40.6–47.0%), 41.1% (38.0–44.2%), and 38.0% (34.9–41.0%) had protective neutralizing titers to polio types 1, 2, and 3, respectively. We found that 60.7% of parents reported knowing about polio, yet 25.6% reported knowing how it spreads. Our data supported the conclusion that polio outreach efforts were successfully connecting with communities—79.4% of participants had someone come to their home with information about polio, and 88.5% had heard of a polio vaccination campaign. Additionally, the odds of seroreactivity to only serotype 2 were far greater in health zones that had a history of supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) compared to health zones that did not. While SIAs may be reaching under-vaccinated communities as a whole, these results are a continuation of the downward trend of seroprevalence rates in this region.

IntroductionSevere COVID-19 illness is characterized by an overwhelming immune hyperactivation. Autoantibodies against vascular, tissue, and cytokine antigens have been detected across the spectrum of COVID-19. How these autoantibodies correlate with COVID-19 severity is not fully defined.MethodsWe performed an exploratory study to investigate the expression of vascular and non-HLA autoantibodies in 110 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 ranging from moderate to critically ill. Relationships between autoantibodies and COVID- 19 severity and clinical risk factors were examined using logistic regression analysis.ResultsThere were no absolute differences in levels of expression of autoantibodies against angiotensin II receptor type 1 (AT1R) or endothelial cell proteins between COVID-19 severity groups. AT1R autoantibody expression also did not differ by age, sex, or diabetes status. Using a multiplex panel of 60 non- HLA autoantigens we did identify seven autoantibodies that differed by COVID-19 severity including myosin (myosin; p=0.02), SHC-transforming protein 3 (shc3; p=0.07), peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma coactivator 1-beta (perc; p=0.05), glial-cell derived neurotrophic factor (gdnf; p=0.07), enolase 1 (eno1; p=0.08), latrophilin-1 (lphn1; p=0.08), and collagen VI (coll6; p=0.05) with greater breadth and higher expression levels seen in less severe COVID-19.DiscussionOverall, we found that patients hospitalized with COVID-19 demonstrate evidence of auto-reactive antibodies targeting endothelial cells, angiotensin II receptors, and numerous structural proteins including collagens. Phenotypic severity did not correlate with specific autoantibodies. This exploratory study underscores the importance of better understanding of the role of autoimmunity in COVID-19 disease and sequelae.

IntroductionWhile antibodies raised by SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines have had compromised efficacy to prevent breakthrough infections due to both limited durability and spike sequence variation, the vaccines have remained highly protective against severe illness. This protection is mediated through cellular immunity, particularly CD8+ T cells, and lasts at least a few months. Although several studies have documented rapidly waning levels of vaccine-elicited antibodies, the kinetics of T cell responses have not been well defined.MethodsInterferon (IFN)-γ enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot (ELISpot) assay and intracellular cytokine staining (ICS) were utilized to assess cellular immune responses (in isolated CD8+ T cells or whole peripheral blood mononuclear cells, PBMCs) to pooled peptides spanning spike. ELISA was performed to quantitate serum antibodies against the spike receptor binding domain (RBD). ResultsIn two persons receiving primary vaccination, tightly serially evaluated frequencies of anti-spike CD8+ T cells using ELISpot assays revealed strikingly short-lived responses, peaking after about 10 days and becoming undetectable by about 20 days after each dose. This pattern was also observed in cross-sectional analyses of persons after the first and second doses during primary vaccination with mRNA vaccines. In contrast, cross-sectional analysis of COVID-19-recovered persons using the same assay showed persisting responses in most persons through 45 days after symptom onset. Cross-sectional analysis using IFN-γ ICS of PBMCs from persons 13 to 235 days after mRNA vaccination also demonstrated undetectable CD8+ T cells against spike soon after vaccination, and extended the observation to include CD4+ T cells. However, ICS analyses of the same PBMCs after culturing with the mRNA-1273 vaccine in vitro showed CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses that were readily detectable in most persons out to 235 days after vaccination.DiscussionOverall, we find that detection of spike-targeted responses from mRNA vaccines using typical IFN-γ assays is remarkably transient, which may be a function of the mRNA vaccine platform and an intrinsic property of the spike protein as an immune target. However, robust memory, as demonstrated by capacity for rapid expansion of T cells responding to spike, is maintained at least several months after vaccination. This is consistent with the clinical observation of vaccine protection from severe illness lasting months. The level of such memory responsiveness required for clinical protection remains to be defined.

A lack of up-to-date population figures may hamper effective decision-making. Here, the authors develop a Bayesian model to estimate population data at high resolution in five provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Abstract Background Vaccination efforts to eradicate polio currently focus on children under 5 years of age, among whom most cases of poliomyelitis still occur. However, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), an outbreak of wild poliovirus type 1 occurred in 2010–2011 in which 16% of cases occurred among adults; in a related outbreak in the neighboring Republic of Congo, 75% of cases occurred among the same adult age-group. Given that infected adults may transmit poliovirus, this study was designed to assess adult immunity against polioviruses. Methods We assessed poliovirus seroprevalence using dried blood spots from 5,526 adults aged 15–59 years from the 2013–2014 Demographic and Health Survey in the DRC. Results Among adults in the DRC, 74%, 72%, and 57% were seropositive for neutralizing antibodies for poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3, respectively. For all three serotypes, seroprevalence tended to be higher among older age groups, those living in households with more children, and among women. Conclusions Protection against poliovirus is generally low among adults in the DRC, particularly for type 3 poliovirus. The lack of acquired immunity in adults suggests a potentially limited poliovirus circulation over the lifetime of those surveyed (spanning 1954 through 2014) and transmission of vaccine-derived poliovirus in this age group while underscoring the risk of these outbreaks among adults in the DRC.

ABSTRACT Despite the robust immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines, emerging data have revealed enhanced neutralizing antibody and T cell cross-reactivity among individuals that previously experienced COVID-19, pointing to a hybrid immune advantage with infection-associated immune priming. Beyond neutralizing antibodies and T cell immunity, mounting data point to a potential role for additional antibody effector functions, including opsinophagocytic activity, in the resolution of symptomatic COVID-19. Whether hybrid immunity modifies the Fc-effector profile of the mRNA vaccine-induced immune response remains incompletely understood. Thus, here we profiled the SARS-CoV-2 specific humoral immune response in a group of individuals with and without prior COVID-19. As expected, hybrid Spike-specific antibody titers were enhanced following the primary dose of the mRNA vaccine but were similar to those achieved by naive vaccinees after the second mRNA vaccine dose. Conversely, Spike-specific vaccine-induced Fc-receptor binding antibody levels were higher after the primary immunization in individuals with prior COVID-19 and remained higher following the second dose compared to those in naive individuals, suggestive of a selective improvement in the quality, rather than the quantity, of the hybrid humoral immune response. Thus, while the magnitude of antibody titers alone may suggest that any two antigen exposures—either hybrid immunity or two doses of vaccine alone—represent a comparable prime/boost immunologic education, we find that hybrid immunity offers a qualitatively improved antibody response able to better leverage Fc-effector functions against conserved regions of the virus. IMPORTANCE Recent data indicates improved immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in individuals who experience a combination of two mRNA vaccine doses and infection, “hybrid immunity,” compared to individuals who receive vaccination or experience infection alone. While previous infection accelerates the vaccine-induced immune response following the first dose of mRNA vaccination, subsequent doses demonstrate negligible increases in antibody titers or T cell immunity. Here, using systems serology, we observed a unique antibody profile induced by hybrid immunity, marked by the unique induction of robust Fc-recruiting antibodies directed at the conserved region of the viral Spike antigen, the S2-domain, induced at lower levels in individuals who only received mRNA vaccination. Thus, hybrid immunity clearly redirects vaccine-induced immunodominance, resulting in the induction of a robust functional humoral immune response to the most highly conserved region of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike antigen, which may be key to protection against existing and emerging variants of concern. Thus, next-generation vaccines able to mimic hybrid immunity and drive a balanced response to conserved regions of the Spike antigen may confer enhanced protection against disease.

CD8+ T cells have key protective roles in many viral infections. While an overall Th1-biased cellular immune response against SARS-CoV-2 has been demonstrated, most reports of anti-SARS-CoV-2 cellular immunity have evaluated bulk T cells using pools of predicted epitopes, without clear delineation of the CD8+ subset and its magnitude and targeting. In recently infected persons (mean 29.8 days after COVID-19 symptom onset), we confirm a Th1 bias (and a novel IL-4-producing population of unclear significance) by flow cytometry, which does not correlate to antibody responses against the receptor binding domain. Evaluating isolated CD8+ T cells in more detail by IFN-γ ELISpot assays, responses against spike, nucleocapsid, matrix, and envelope proteins average 396, 901, 296, and 0 spot-forming cells (SFC) per million, targeting 1.4, 1.5, 0.59, and 0.0 epitope regions respectively. Nucleocapsid targeting is dominant in terms of magnitude, breadth, and density of targeting. The magnitude of responses drops rapidly post-infection; nucleocapsid targeting is most sustained, and vaccination selectively boosts spike targeting. In SARS-CoV-2-naïve persons, evaluation of the anti-spike CD8+ T cell response soon after vaccination (mean 11.3 days) yields anti-spike CD8+ T cell responses averaging 2,463 SFC/million against 4.2 epitope regions, and targeting mirrors that seen in infected persons. These findings provide greater clarity on CD8+ T cell anti-SARS-CoV-2 targeting, breadth, and persistence, suggesting that nucleocapsid inclusion in vaccines could broaden coverage and durability.

Abstract Background For many emerging or re-emerging pathogens, cases in humans arise from a mixture of introductions (via zoonotic spillover from animal reservoirs or geographic spillover from endemic regions) and secondary human-to-human transmission. Interventions aiming to reduce incidence of these infections can be focused on preventing spillover or reducing human-to-human transmission, or sometimes both at once, and typically are governed by resource constraints that require policymakers to make choices. Despite increasing emphasis on using mathematical models to inform disease control policies, little attention has been paid to guiding rational disease control at the animal-human interface. Methods We introduce a modeling framework to analyze the impacts of different disease control policies, focusing on pathogens exhibiting subcritical transmission among humans (i.e. pathogens that cannot establish sustained human-to-human transmission). We quantify the relative effectiveness of measures to reduce spillover (e.g. reducing contact with animal hosts), human-to-human transmission (e.g. case isolation), or both at once (e.g. vaccination), across a range of epidemiological contexts. Results We provide guidelines for choosing which mode of control to prioritize in different epidemiological scenarios and considering different levels of resource and relative costs. We contextualize our analysis with current zoonotic pathogens and other subcritical pathogens, such as post-elimination measles, and control policies that have been applied. Conclusions Our work provides a model-based, theoretical foundation to understand and guide policy for subcritical zoonoses, integrating across disciplinary and species boundaries in a manner consistent with One Health principles.

ABSTRACTA serological survey of 2,430 archived serum samples collected between 1997 and 2012 was conducted to retrospectively determine the prevalence of Marburg virus in five African countries. Serum samples were screened for neutralizing antibodies in a pseudotype micro-neutralization assay and confirmed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Surprisingly, a seroprevalence for Marburg virus of 7.5 and 6.3% was found in Cameroon and Ghana, respectively, suggesting the circulation of filoviruses or related viruses outside of known endemic areas that remain undetected by current surveillance efforts. However, due to the lack of validated assays and appropriate positive controls, these results must be considered preliminary.

Background: Rubella vaccine has yet to be introduced into the national immunization schedule of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC); the current burden of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) is unknown and likely to be high. An important consideration prior to introducing rubella containing vaccine (RCV) is the potential inverse relationship between RCV coverage and CRS incidence. Increasing RCV coverage will also increase in the average age of infection. Cumulative infections across all age groups will decrease, but the number of infections in age groups vulnerable to CRS may increase. Methods: Rubella transmission dynamics in the DRC were simulated using a stochastic agent-based model of transmission. Input parameter values for known properties, demographic variables, and interventions were fixed; infectivity was inferred from seropositivity profiles in survey data. Results: Our simulations of RCV introduction for the DRC demonstrate that an increase in CRS burden is unlikely. Continued endemic transmission is only plausible when routine immunization coverage is less than 40% and follow-up supplemental immunization activities have poor coverage for decades. Conclusion: Increased vaccination coverage tends to increase the annual variability of CRS burden. Simulations examining low vaccination coverage and high mean CRS burden are outbreak prone, with multiple years of reduced burden followed by acute outbreaks. These outcomes contrast simulations with no vaccination coverage and high mean CRS burden, which have more consistent burden from year to year.

We conducted a serologic survey of 2,430 serum samples collected during 1997–2012 for various studies to determine the prevalence of the hemorrhagic fever virus Ebola virus (EBOV) in equatorial Africa. We screened serum samples for neutralizing antibodies by using a pseudotype microneutralization assay and a newly developed luciferase immunoprecipitation system assay. Specimens seroreactive for EBOV were confirmed by using an ELISA. Our results suggest a serologic prevalence of 2%–3.5% in the Republic of the Congo and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which have reported outbreaks of infection with EBOV. In addition we detected a seroprevalence of 1.3% in southern Cameroon, which indicated a low risk for exposure in this region.

Two mRNA vaccines (BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273) against severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are globally authorized as a two-dose regimen. Understanding the magnitude and duration of protective immune responses is vital to curbing the pandemic. We enrolled 461 high-risk health services workers at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and first responders in the Los Angeles County Fire Department (LACoFD) to assess the humoral responses in previously infected (PI) and infection naïve (NPI) individuals to mRNA-based vaccines (BNT162b2/Pfizer- BioNTech or mRNA-1273/Moderna). A chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay was used to detect antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 Spike in vaccinees prior to (n = 21) and following each vaccine dose (n = 246 following dose 1 and n = 315 following dose 2), and at days 31–60 (n = 110) and 61–90 (n = 190) following completion of the 2-dose series. Both vaccines induced robust antibody responses in all immunocompetent individuals. Previously infected individuals achieved higher median peak titers (p = 0.002) and had a slower rate of decay (p = 0.047) than infection-naïve individuals. mRNA-1273 vaccinated infection-naïve individuals demonstrated modestly higher titers following each dose (p = 0.005 and p = 0.029, respectively) and slower rates of antibody decay (p = 0.003) than those who received BNT162b2. A subset of previously infected individuals (25%) required both doses in order to reach peak antibody titers. The biologic significance of the differences between previously infected individuals and between the mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 vaccines remains uncertain, but may have important implications for booster strategies.

As of June 16, 2019, an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak has led to 2136 reported cases in the northeastern region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). As this outbreak continues to threaten the lives and livelihoods of people already suffering from civil strife and armed conflict, relatively simple mathematical models and their short-term predictions have the potential to inform Ebola response efforts in real time. We applied recently developed non-parametrically estimated Hawkes point processes to model the expected cumulative case count using daily case counts from May 3, 2018, to June 16, 2019, initially reported by the Ministry of Health of DRC and later confirmed in World Health Organization situation reports. We generated probabilistic estimates of the ongoing EVD outbreak in DRC extending both before and after June 16, 2019, and evaluated their accuracy by comparing forecasted vs. actual outbreak sizes, out-of-sample log-likelihood scores and the error per day in the median forecast. The median estimated outbreak sizes for the prospective thee-, six-, and nine-week projections made using data up to June 16, 2019, were, respectively, 2317 (95% PI: 2222, 2464); 2440 (95% PI: 2250, 2790); and 2544 (95% PI: 2273, 3205). The nine-week projection experienced some degradation with a daily error in the median forecast of 6.73 cases, while the six- and three-week projections were more reliable, with corresponding errors of 4.96 and 4.85 cases per day, respectively. Our findings suggest the Hawkes point process may serve as an easily-applied statistical model to predict EVD outbreak trajectories in near real-time to better inform decision-making and resource allocation during Ebola response efforts. Keywords: Ebola virus disease, Hawkes point process, Mathematical modeling, Democratic Republic of Congo, Compartmental models

Introduction: As of April 2019, the current Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is occurring in a longstanding conflict zone and has become the second largest EVD outbreak in history. It is suspected that after violent events occur, EVD transmission will increase; however, empirical studies to understand the impact of violence on transmission are lacking. Here, we use spatial and temporal trends of EVD case counts to compare transmission rates between health zones that have versus have not experienced recent violent events during the outbreak. Methods: We collected daily EVD case counts from DRC Ministry of Health. A time-varying indicator of recent violence in each health zone was derived from events documented in the WHO situation reports. We used the Wallinga-Teunis technique to estimate the reproduction number R for each case by day per zone in the 2018–2019 outbreak. We fit an exponentially decaying curve to estimates of R overall and by health zone, for comparison to past outbreaks. Results: As of 16 April 2019, the mean overall R for the entire outbreak was 1.11. We found evidence of an increase in the estimated transmission rates in health zones with recently reported violent events versus those without (p = 0.008). The average R was estimated as between 0.61 and 0.86 in regions not affected by recent violent events, and between 1.01 and 1.07 in zones affected by violent events within the last 21 days, leading to an increase in R between 0.17 and 0.53. Within zones with recent violent events, the mean estimated quenching rate was lower than for all past outbreaks except the 2013–2016 West African outbreak. Conclusion: The difference in the estimated transmission rates between zones affected by recent violent events suggests that violent events are contributing to increased transmission and the ongoing nature of this outbreak. Keywords: Ebola virus disease, Outbreak, Mathematical modeling, Geospatial, Democratic Republic of Congo, Africa

ABSTRACT Here we describe baseline validation studies and field performance of a research-use-only chemiluminescent multiplex serology panel for measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella-zoster virus used with dried blood spots in support of the 2013–2014 Democratic Republic of the Congo Demographic and Health Survey. Characterization of the panel using U.S. FDA-cleared commercial kits shows good concordance for measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella-zoster with average sensitivity across assays of 94.9% and an average specificity of 91.4%. As expected, performance versus available standards validated for plaque-reduction assays does not provide a 1:1 correspondence with international units and yet demonstrates excellent linearity (average Hill’s slope = 1.02) and ∼4 logs of dynamic range. In addition, for the four assays, the multiplexed format allowed for inclusion of three positive and two negative controls for each sample. A prototype Dynex Multiplier chemiluminescent automated immunoassay instrument with a charge-coupled device camera provided a rugged and robust processing and data acquisition platform. Performance of a multiplex instrument for serological testing in a substantially resource-limited environment shows excellent reproducibility, minimal cross-reactivity, and a clear discrimination between specific assays and should be considered a viable option for future serosurveys. IMPORTANCE The critical evaluation of immunization programs is key to identifying areas of suboptimal vaccination coverage, monitoring activities, and aiding development of public health policy. For evaluation of vaccine effectiveness, direct antibody binding assay methods, including enzyme immunoassay, enzyme-linked fluorescence assays, and indirect immunofluorescence assay, are most commonly used for detection of IgG antibodies. However, despite their well-demonstrated, reliable performance, they can be labor-intensive and time-consuming and require separate assays for each individual marker. This necessitates increased sample volumes, processing time, and personnel, which may limit assessment to a few key targets in resource-limited settings, that is, low- and middle-income locations where funding for public health or general infrastructure that directly impacts public health is restricted, limiting access to equipment, infrastructure, and trained personnel. One solution is a multiplexed immunoassay, which allows for the detection of multiple analytes in a single reaction for increased efficiency and rapid surveillance of infectious diseases in limited-resource settings. Thus, the scope of the project precluded a full validation, and here we present abbreviated validation studies demonstrating adequate sensitivity, specificity, and reproducibility.

Monkeypox virus is a zoonotic virus endemic to Central Africa. Although active disease surveillance has assessed monkeypox disease prevalence and geographic range, information about virus diversity is lacking. We therefore assessed genome diversity of viruses in 60 samples obtained from humans with primary and secondary cases of infection from 2005 through 2007. We detected 4 distinct lineages and a deletion that resulted in gene loss in 10 (16.7%) samples and that seemed to correlate with human-to-human transmission (p = 0.0544). The data suggest a high frequency of spillover events from the pool of viruses in nonhuman animals, active selection through genomic destabilization and gene loss, and increased disease transmissibility and severity. The potential for accelerated adaptation to humans should be monitored through improved surveillance. Download MP3 Length: 1:11

HIV-1 is an immunosuppressive pathogen. Our behavioral data for 191 HIV-1–infected rural Cameroonians show frequent exposure to nonhuman primates through activities such as hunting and butchering. Immunosuppression among persons exposed to body fluids of wild nonhuman primates could favor the process of adaptation and subsequent emergence of zoonotic pathogens.

Human parvovirus 4 infections are primarily associated with parenteral exposure in western countries. By ELISA, we demonstrate frequent seropositivity for antibody to parvovirus 4 viral protein 2 among adult populations throughout sub-Saharan Africa (Burkina Faso, 37%; Cameroon, 25%; Democratic Republic of the Congo, 35%; South Africa, 20%), which implies existence of alternative transmission routes.

By analyzing vesicle fluids and crusted scabs from 136 persons with suspected monkeypox, we identified 51 cases of monkeypox by PCR, sequenced the hemagglutinin gene, and confirmed 94% of cases by virus culture. PCR demonstrated chickenpox in 61 patients. Coinfection with both viruses was found in 1 additional patient.

BackgroundEbola virus (EBOV) is a zoonotic filovirus spread through exposure to infected bodily fluids of a human or animal. Though EBOV is capable of causing severe disease, referred to as Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), individuals who have never been diagnosed with confirmed, probable or suspected EVD can have detectable EBOV antigen-specific antibodies in their blood. This study aims to identify risk factors associated with detectable antibody levels in the absence of an EVD diagnosis.MethodologyData was collected from September 2015 to August 2017 from 1,366 consenting individuals across four study sites in the DRC (Boende, Kabondo-Dianda, Kikwit, and Yambuku). Seroreactivity was determined to EBOV GP IgG using Zaire Ebola Virus Glycoprotein (EBOV GP antigen) ELISA kits (Alpha Diagnostic International, Inc.) in Kinshasa, DRC; any result above 4.7 units/mL was considered seroreactive. Among the respondents, 113 (8.3%) were considered seroreactive. Several zoonotic exposures were associated with EBOV seroreactivity after controlling for age, sex, healthcare worker status, location, and history of contact with an EVD case, namely: ever having contact with bats, ever having contact with rodents, and ever eating non-human primate meat. Contact with monkeys or non-human primates was not associated with seroreactivity.ConclusionsThis analysis suggests that some zoonotic exposures that have been linked to EVD outbreaks can also be associated with EBOV GP seroreactivity in the absence of diagnosed EVD. Future investigations should seek to clarify the relationships between zoonotic exposures, seroreactivity, asymptomatic infection, and EVD.

Introduction There is an urgent need to investigate the capabilities of active surveillance in strengthening the development of pharmacovigilance (PV) systems in low-resource settings. Here, we assess the capability and feasibility of prospectively collected data to document maternal immunisation and adverse birth outcomes across delivery centres in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) according to the Global Alignment of Immunisation Safety Assessment in pregnancy (GAIA) definitions.Methods We conducted a facility-based prospective cohort study that enrolled mothers via convenience sampling either during their antenatal care visit or following their delivery. Demographic and clinical information as well as postpartum details related to the index pregnancy were collected after delivery; all mothers were also contacted via telephone 30 days postdelivery to determine if certain outcomes occurred after health facility discharge. Adverse birth outcomes of interest and maternal tetanus immunisation were categorised according to the GAIA criteria, and the level and impact of loss to follow-up (LTFU) was also evaluated.Results The study population consisted of 2675 mothers. The proportion of adverse birth outcomes ranged from 1.6% (for neonatal death) to 15.8% (for small for gestational age). Evidence of maternal tetanus immunisation during the index pregnancy was found for 637 mothers of newborns with any adverse birth outcome. GAIA diagnostic certainty was high for low birth weight and preterm birth, but much lower for stillbirth and neonatal bloodstream infections. Additionally, LTFU was high: only 47.9% of all mothers were successfully followed up via phone call.Conclusion Our investigation highlighted some of the challenges associated with the utilisation of the GAIA criteria in (prospective) observational studies within health facilities in Kinshasa, DRC (eg, data quality, LTFU and selection bias). Nevertheless, active surveillance remains a promising tool for future PV activities in DRC and beyond.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008923.].

Objectives To describe face mask use among pregnant women seeking antenatal care (ANC) in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo and to identify factors associated with masking adherence in this population.Design Facility-based cross-sectional study nested within a prospective cohort study.Setting Random sample of 10 health facilities, including 5 primary health centers and 5 secondary facilities or hospitals.Participants A total of 934 pregnant women aged 18 years or above with a gestational age of at least 32 weeks were consecutively surveyed from 17 August 2020 to 31 January 2021.Primary and secondary outcome measures We estimated the proportions of pregnant women wearing a face mask and masking correctly (ie, over the mouth and nose), and assessed their knowledge regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. Multivariable logistic regression was employed to identify factors associated with overall and correct face mask use.Results Overall, 309 (33.1%) women wore a mask during the interview after their antenatal appointments, but only 33 (10.7%) wore a mask correctly. The odds of masking and correct mask use were significantly higher among women who had their ANC visit in a facility that provided COVID-19 care. Additionally, women who experienced COVID-19-like symptoms in the past 6 months had higher odds of wearing a mask correctly compared with those reporting no recent symptoms. Although 908 (97.2%) women were aware of the COVID-19 pandemic, only 611 (67.3%) thought that COVID-19 was circulating locally in Kinshasa.Conclusion Overall and correct face mask adherence levels were low among pregnant women attending ANC in Kinshasa. Our study highlights the need for improving adherence to correct face mask use in order to help control the spread of COVID-19 within Kinshasa alongside other control measures, like vaccination.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009566.].

Although multiple antigenically distinct ebolavirus species can cause human disease, previous serosurveys focused on only Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV). Thus, the extent of reactivity or exposure to other ebolaviruses, and which sociodemographic factors are linked to this seroreactivity, are unclear. We conducted a serosurvey of 539 healthcare workers (HCW) in Mbandaka, Democratic Republic of the Congo, using ELISA-based analysis of serum IgG against EBOV, Sudan ebolavirus (SUDV) and Bundibugyo ebolavirus (BDBV) glycoproteins (GP). We compared seroreactivity to risk factors for viral exposure using univariate and multivariable logistic regression. Seroreactivity against different GPs ranged from 2.2-4.6%. Samples from six individuals reacted to all three species of ebolavirus and 27 samples showed a species-specific IgG response. We find that community health volunteers are more likely to be seroreactive against each antigen than nurses, and in general, that HCWs with indirect patient contact have higher anti-EBOV GP IgG levels than those with direct contact. Seroreactivity against ebolavirus GP may be associated with positions that offer less occupational training and access to PPE. Those individuals with broadly reactive responses may have had multiple ebolavirus exposures or developed cross-reactive antibodies. In contrast, those individuals with species-specific BDBV or SUDV GP seroreactivity may have been exposed to an ebolavirus not previously known to circulate in the region.

BackgroundTetanus is a potentially fatal disease that is preventable through vaccination. While the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has continued to improve implementing routine vaccination activities throughout the country, they have struggled to maintain high childhood vaccine coverage. This study aims to examine the seroprevalence of tetanus in children 6 to 59 months to identify areas for intervention and improvement of vaccination coverage.MethodsIn collaboration with the 2013-2014 Demographic and Health Survey, we assessed the seroprevalence of tetanus antibodies among children in the DRC. Dried blood spot samples collected from children 6-59 months of age were processed using a prototype DYNEX Multiplier® chemiluminescent automated immunoassay instrument with a multiplex measles, mumps, rubella, varicella and tetanus assay. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with tetanus vaccination and seroprotection.ResultsOverall, 36.1% of children 6-59 months of age reported receiving at least 1 dose of tetanus vaccine while 28.7% reported receiving 3 doses; tetanus seroprotection was 40%. Increasing age in children was associated with decreased tetanus seroprotection, but increased number tetanus vaccinations received. Factors related to increased tetanus seroprotection included number of children in the household, wealth index of the family, urban residence compared to rural, level of maternal education, and province and geography.ConclusionsOur findings in this nationally representative sample indicate that serology biomarkers may help identify children who are not fully immunized to tetanus more accurately than reported vaccination. While children may be captured for routine immunization activities, as children age, decreasing seroprevalence may indicate additional need to bolster routine vaccination activities and documentation of vaccination in school aged children. Additionally, the study highlights gaps in rural residential areas and vaccination coverage based on maternal education, indicating that policies targeting maternal education and awareness could improve the coverage and seroprevalence of tetanus antibodies in the DRC.

Predictions of COVID-19 case growth and mortality are critical to the decisions of political leaders, businesses, and individuals grappling with the pandemic. This predictive task is challenging due to the novelty of the virus, limited data, and dynamic political and societal responses. We embed a Bayesian time series model and a random forest algorithm within an epidemiological compartmental model for empirically grounded COVID-19 predictions. The Bayesian case model fits a location-specific curve to the velocity (first derivative) of the log transformed cumulative case count, borrowing strength across geographic locations and incorporating prior information to obtain a posterior distribution for case trajectories. The compartmental model uses this distribution and predicts deaths using a random forest algorithm trained on COVID-19 data and population-level characteristics, yielding daily projections and interval estimates for cases and deaths in U.S. states. We evaluated the model by training it on progressively longer periods of the pandemic and computing its predictive accuracy over 21-day forecasts. The substantial variation in predicted trajectories and associated uncertainty between states is illustrated by comparing three unique locations: New York, Colorado, and West Virginia. The sophistication and accuracy of this COVID-19 model offer reliable predictions and uncertainty estimates for the current trajectory of the pandemic in the U.S. and provide a platform for future predictions as shifting political and societal responses alter its course.

Coronaviruses play an important role as pathogens of humans and animals, and the emergence of epidemics like SARS, MERS and COVID-19 is closely linked to zoonotic transmission events primarily from wild animals. Bats have been found to be an important source of coronaviruses with some of them having the potential to infect humans, with other animals serving as intermediate or alternate hosts or reservoirs. Host diversity may be an important contributor to viral diversity and thus the potential for zoonotic events. To date, limited research has been done in Africa on this topic, in particular in the Congo Basin despite frequent contact between humans and wildlife in this region. We sampled and, using consensus coronavirus PCR-primers, tested 3,561 wild animals for coronavirus RNA. The focus was on bats (38%), rodents (38%), and primates (23%) that posed an elevated risk for contact with people, and we found coronavirus RNA in 121 animals, of which all but two were bats. Depending on the taxonomic family, bats were significantly more likely to be coronavirus RNA-positive when sampled either in the wet (Pteropodidae and Rhinolophidae) or dry season (Hipposideridae, Miniopteridae, Molossidae, and Vespertilionidae). The detected RNA sequences correspond to 15 alpha- and 6 betacoronaviruses, with some of them being very similar (>95% nucleotide identities) to known coronaviruses and others being more unique and potentially representing novel viruses. In seven of the bats, we detected RNA most closely related to sequences of the human common cold coronaviruses 229E or NL63 (>80% nucleotide identities). The findings highlight the potential for coronavirus spillover, especially in regions with a high diversity of bats and close human contact, and reinforces the need for ongoing surveillance.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has a history of nonhuman primate (NHP) consumption and exposure to simian retroviruses yet little is known about the extent of zoonotic simian retroviral infections in DRC. We examined the prevalence of human T-lymphotropic viruses (HTLV), a retrovirus group of simian origin, in a large population of persons with frequent NHP exposures and a history of simian foamy virus infection. We screened plasma from 3,051 persons living in rural villages in central DRC using HTLV EIA and western blot (WB). PCR amplification of HTLV tax and LTR sequences from buffy coat DNA was used to confirm infection and to measure proviral loads (pVLs). We used phylogenetic analyses of LTR sequences to infer evolutionary histories and potential transmission clusters. Questionnaire data was analyzed in conjunction with serological and molecular data. A relatively high proportion of the study population (5.4%, n = 165) were WB seropositive: 128 HTLV-1-like, 3 HTLV-2-like, and 34 HTLV-positive but untypeable profiles. 85 persons had HTLV indeterminate WB profiles. HTLV seroreactivity was higher in females, wives, heads of households, and increased with age. HTLV-1 LTR sequences from 109 persons clustered strongly with HTLV-1 and STLV-1 subtype B from humans and simians from DRC, with most sequences more closely related to STLV-1 from Allenopithecus nigroviridis (Allen's swamp monkey). While 18 potential transmission clusters were identified, most were in different households, villages, and health zones. Three HTLV-1-infected persons were co-infected with simian foamy virus. The mean and median percentage of HTLV-1 pVLs were 5.72% and 1.53%, respectively, but were not associated with age, NHP exposure, village, or gender. We document high HTLV prevalence in DRC likely originating from STLV-1. We demonstrate regional spread of HTLV-1 in DRC with pVLs reported to be associated with HTLV disease, supporting local and national public health measures to prevent spread and morbidity.

Two mRNA vaccines (BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273) against severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are globally authorized as a two-dose regimen. Understanding the magnitude and duration of protective immune responses is vital to curbing the pandemic. We enrolled 461 high-risk health services workers at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and first responders in the Los Angeles County Fire Department (LACoFD) to assess the humoral responses in previously infected (PI) and infection naïve (NPI) individuals to mRNA-based vaccines (BNT162b2/Pfizer- BioNTech or mRNA-1273/Moderna). A chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay was used to detect antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 Spike in vaccinees prior to (n = 21) and following each vaccine dose (n = 246 following dose 1 and n = 315 following dose 2), and at days 31-60 (n = 110) and 61-90 (n = 190) following completion of the 2-dose series. Both vaccines induced robust antibody responses in all immunocompetent individuals. Previously infected individuals achieved higher median peak titers (p = 0.002) and had a slower rate of decay (p = 0.047) than infection-naïve individuals. mRNA-1273 vaccinated infection-naïve individuals demonstrated modestly higher titers following each dose (p = 0.005 and p = 0.029, respectively) and slower rates of antibody decay (p = 0.003) than those who received BNT162b2. A subset of previously infected individuals (25%) required both doses in order to reach peak antibody titers. The biologic significance of the differences between previously infected individuals and between the mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 vaccines remains uncertain, but may have important implications for booster strategies.

BackgroundAs of February 25, 2019, 875 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces, Democratic Republic of Congo. Since the beginning of October 2018, the outbreak has largely shifted into regions in which active armed conflict has occurred, and in which EVD cases and their contacts have been difficult for health workers to reach. We used available data on the current outbreak, with case-count time series from prior outbreaks, to project the short-term and long-term course of the outbreak.MethodsFor short- and long-term projections, we modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process that assumes gradually quenching transmission rates estimated from past EVD outbreaks, with outbreak trajectories conditioned on agreement with the course of the current outbreak, and with multiple levels of vaccination coverage. We used two regression models to estimate similar projection periods. Short- and long-term projections were estimated using negative binomial autoregression and Theil-Sen regression, respectively. We also used Gott's rule to estimate a baseline minimum-information projection. We then constructed an ensemble of forecasts to be compared and recorded for future evaluation against final outcomes. From August 20, 2018 to February 25, 2019, short-term model projections were validated against known case counts.ResultsDuring validation of short-term projections, from one week to four weeks, we found models consistently scored higher on shorter-term forecasts. Based on case counts as of February 25, the stochastic model projected a median case count of 933 cases by February 18 (95% prediction interval: 872-1054) and 955 cases by March 4 (95% prediction interval: 874-1105), while the auto-regression model projects median case counts of 889 (95% prediction interval: 876-933) and 898 (95% prediction interval: 877-983) cases for those dates, respectively. Projected median final counts range from 953 to 1,749. Although the outbreak is already larger than all past Ebola outbreaks other than the 2013-2016 outbreak of over 26,000 cases, our models do not project that it is likely to grow to that scale. The stochastic model estimates that vaccination coverage in this outbreak is lower than reported in its trial setting in Sierra Leone.ConclusionsOur projections are concentrated in a range up to about 300 cases beyond those already reported. While a catastrophic outbreak is not projected, it is not ruled out, and prevention and vigilance are warranted. Prospective validation of our models in real time allowed us to generate more accurate short-term forecasts, and this process may prove useful for future real-time short-term forecasting. We estimate that transmission rates are higher than would be seen under target levels of 62% coverage due to contact tracing and vaccination, and this model estimate may offer a surrogate indicator for the outbreak response challenges.

Despite increased vaccination rates, the burden, morbidity and mortality associated with vaccine preventable diseases remains high. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), potentially unreliable data and geographically varied program provision call for a better understanding of vaccination coverage and its changes over time at the country and province level. To assess changes in the proportion of children who were fully vaccinated over time in the DRC, vaccination histories for children 12-59 months of age were obtained from both the 2007 and 2013-2014 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Changes were assessed, both at the country- and province-levels, to identify potential geographic variations. Vaccination coverage improved 70% between the DHS waves: 26% compared to 44% of 12-59 month-old children met full vaccination criteria in 2007 and 2013-2014, respectively (n2007 = 3032 and n2013-14 = 6619). Similarly, there was an overall trend across both DHS waves where as year of birth increased, so did vaccination coverage. There was geographic variation in immunization changes with most central and eastern provinces increasing in coverage and most northern, western and southern provinces having decreased vaccination coverage at the second time point. Using nationally representative data, we identified significant changes over time in vaccination coverage which may help to inform future policy, interventions and research to improve vaccination rates among children in the DRC. This study is the first of its kind for the population of DRC and provides an important initial step towards better understanding trends in vaccination coverage over time.

As of May 27, 2018, 6 suspected, 13 probable and 35 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) had been reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We used reported case counts and time series from prior outbreaks to estimate the total outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use. We modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model that included reproduction numbers from past Ebola outbreaks and a particle filtering method to generate a probabilistic projection of the outbreak size and duration conditioned on its reported trajectory to date; modeled using high (62%), low (44%), and zero (0%) estimates of vaccination coverage (after deployment). Additionally, we used the time series for 18 prior Ebola outbreaks from 1976 to 2016 to parameterize the Thiel-Sen regression model predicting the outbreak size from the number of observed cases from April 4 to May 27. We used these techniques on probable and confirmed case counts with and without inclusion of suspected cases. Probabilistic projections were scored against the actual outbreak size of 54 EVD cases, using a log-likelihood score. With the stochastic model, using high, low, and zero estimates of vaccination coverage, the median outbreak sizes for probable and confirmed cases were 82 cases (95% prediction interval [PI]: 55, 156), 104 cases (95% PI: 58, 271), and 213 cases (95% PI: 64, 1450), respectively. With the Thiel-Sen regression model, the median outbreak size was estimated to be 65.0 probable and confirmed cases (95% PI: 48.8, 119.7). Among our three mathematical models, the stochastic model with suspected cases and high vaccine coverage predicted total outbreak sizes closest to the true outcome. Relatively simple mathematical models updated in real time may inform outbreak response teams with projections of total outbreak size and duration.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1002924.].

Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4(th) Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts.

Deep sequencing was used to discover a novel rhabdovirus (Bas-Congo virus, or BASV) associated with a 2009 outbreak of 3 human cases of acute hemorrhagic fever in Mangala village, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Africa. The cases, presenting over a 3-week period, were characterized by abrupt disease onset, high fever, mucosal hemorrhage, and, in two patients, death within 3 days. BASV was detected in an acute serum sample from the lone survivor at a concentration of 1.09 × 10(6) RNA copies/mL, and 98.2% of the genome was subsequently de novo assembled from ≈ 140 million sequence reads. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that BASV is highly divergent and shares less than 34% amino acid identity with any other rhabdovirus. High convalescent neutralizing antibody titers of >1:1000 were detected in the survivor and an asymptomatic nurse directly caring for him, both of whom were health care workers, suggesting the potential for human-to-human transmission of BASV. The natural animal reservoir host or arthropod vector and precise mode of transmission for the virus remain unclear. BASV is an emerging human pathogen associated with acute hemorrhagic fever in Africa.