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IntroductionSchistosomiasis is a parasitic disease in Tanzania affecting over 50% of the population. Current control strategies involve mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns at the district level, which have led to problems of over- and under-treatment in different areas. WHO guidelines have called for more targeted MDA to circumvent these problems, however a scarcity of prevalence data inhibits decision makers from prioritizing sub-district areas for MDA. This study demonstrated how geostatistics can be used to inform planning for targeted MDA.MethodsGeostatistical sub-district (ward-level) prevalence estimates were generated through combining a zero-inflated poisson model and kriging approach (regression kriging). To make predictions, the model used prevalence survey data collected in 2021 of 17,400 school children in six regions of Tanzania, along with several open source ecological and socio-demographic variables with known associations with schistosomiasis.ResultsThe model results show that regression kriging can be used to effectively predict the ward level parasite prevalence of the two species of Schistosoma endemic to the study area. Kriging was found to further improve the regression model fit, with an adjusted R-squared value of 0.51 and 0.32 for intestinal and urogenital schistosomiasis, respectively. Targeted treatment based on model predictions would represent a shift in treatment away from 193 wards estimated to be over-treated to 149 wards that would have been omitted from the district level MDA.ConclusionsGeostatistical models can help to support NTD program efficiency and reduce disease transmission by facilitating WHO recommended targeted MDA treatment through provision of prevalence estimates where data is scarce.

Abstract Background The identification and mapping of at-risk populations at a lower administrative level than the district are prerequisites for the planning, resource allocation and design of impactful control intervention measures. Thus, the objective of the current study was to conduct sub-district precision mapping of soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) and schistosomiasis in 29 districts of north-western Tanzania using the current recommended World Health Organization criteria. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 145 schools between March and May 2021. A urine filtration technique was used for the quantification of Schistosoma haematobium eggs, whereas quantification of Schistosoma mansoni and STH eggs was done using the Kato–Katz technique. Microhaematuria was examined using a urine dipstick. Results The overall prevalences of any STH and schistosome infections were 9.3% [95% confidence interval (95%CI) 8.6–9.9] and 14.6% (95%CI 13.9–15.4), respectively. The overall prevalence of S. mansoni was 8.7% (95%CI 8.1–9.3), and 36.4%, 41.6%, and 21.9% of the children had low, moderate, and heavy infections, respectively. The overall prevalence of S. haematobium was 6.1% (95%CI 5.5–6.5), and 71.7% and 28.3% of the infected children had light and heavy intensity infections, respectively. The prevalence of microhaematuria was 7.3% (95%CI 6.7–7.8), with males having the highest prevalence (8.4%, P

Abstract Planning and implementation of schistosomiasis control activities requires an understanding of the prevalence, intensity of infection and geographical distribution of the disease in different epidemiological settings. Although, Tanzania is known to be highly endemic to schistosomiasis, there is paucity of data on the geographical distribution of schistosomiasis in potential large water bodies in the country. Thus, the present study was conducted to determine the prevalence, infection intensities and geographical distribution of schistosomiasis along villages located on the shoreline of Lake Nyasa, southern Tanzania. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 1560 children aged 1–13 years old living in villages located along the shoreline of Lake Nyasa. A single urine and stool sample was obtained from each participating child and screened for S. mansoni using Kato Katz (KK) technique to detect eggs and using point-of-care circulating Cathodic Antigen (POC-CCA) test to detect antigen in urine. Urine filtration technique was used to screen for S. haematobium eggs in urine samples. Villages/primary school were mapped using geographical information system and prevalence map was generated using ArcView GIS software. The overall prevalence of S. mansoni based on KK technique and POC-CCA test was 15.1% (95%CI: 13.4–16.9) and 21.8% (95%CI: 18.5–25.3) respectively. The prevalence S. haematobium was 0.83% (95%CI: 0.5–1.4) and that of haematuria was 0.9%. The arithmetic mean egg intensities for S. haematobium and S. mansoni were 18.5 mean eggs/10 ml (95%CI: 5.9–57.6) of urine and 34.7 mean epg (95%CI: 27.7–41.7) respectively. Villages located on the southern end of the lake had significantly high prevalence of S. mansoni than those located on the northern part (χ2 = 178.7838, P = 0.001). Cases of S. haematobium were detected only in three villages. Both S. mansoni and S. haematobium infections occur in villages located along the shoreline of Lake Nyasa at varying prevalence. These finding provide insights that can provide guidance in planning and implementation of MDA approach and other recommended measures such as improvement in sanitation, provision of clean water and behaviour changes through public health education.

Achieving elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem requires a minimum of five effective rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) and demonstrating low prevalence in subsequent assessments. The first assessments recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) are sentinel and spot-check sites-referred to as pre-transmission assessment surveys (pre-TAS)-in each implementation unit after MDA. If pre-TAS shows that prevalence in each site has been lowered to less than 1% microfilaremia or less than 2% antigenemia, the implementation unit conducts a TAS to determine whether MDA can be stopped. Failure to pass pre-TAS means that further rounds of MDA are required. This study aims to understand factors influencing pre-TAS results using existing programmatic data from 554 implementation units, of which 74 (13%) failed, in 13 countries. Secondary data analysis was completed using existing data from Bangladesh, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Haiti, Indonesia, Mali, Nepal, Niger, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, and Uganda. Additional covariate data were obtained from spatial raster data sets. Bivariate analysis and multilinear regression were performed to establish potential relationships between variables and the pre-TAS result. Higher baseline prevalence and lower elevation were significant in the regression model. Variables statistically significantly associated with failure (p-value ≤0.05) in the bivariate analyses included baseline prevalence at or above 5% or 10%, use of Filariasis Test Strips (FTS), primary vector of Culex, treatment with diethylcarbamazine-albendazole, higher elevation, higher population density, higher enhanced vegetation index (EVI), higher annual rainfall, and 6 or more rounds of MDA. This paper reports for the first time factors associated with pre-TAS results from a multi-country analysis. This information can help countries more effectively forecast program activities, such as the potential need for more rounds of MDA, and prioritize resources to ensure adequate coverage of all persons in areas at highest risk of failing pre-TAS.

Endemicity mapping is required to determining whether a district requires mass drug administration (MDA). Current guidelines for mapping LF require that two sites be selected per district and within each site a convenience sample of 100 adults be tested for antigenemia or microfilaremia. One or more confirmed positive tests in either site is interpreted as an indicator of potential transmission, prompting MDA at the district-level. While this mapping strategy has worked well in high-prevalence settings, imperfect diagnostics and the transmission potential of a single positive adult have raised concerns about the strategy's use in low-prevalence settings. In response to these limitations, a statistically rigorous confirmatory mapping strategy was designed as a complement to the current strategy when LF endemicity is uncertain. Under the new strategy, schools are selected by either systematic or cluster sampling, depending on population size, and within each selected school, children 9-14 years are sampled systematically. All selected children are tested and the number of positive results is compared against a critical value to determine, with known probabilities of error, whether the average prevalence of LF infection is likely below a threshold of 2%. This confirmatory mapping strategy was applied to 45 districts in Ethiopia and 10 in Tanzania, where initial mapping results were considered uncertain. In 42 Ethiopian districts, and all 10 of the Tanzanian districts, the number of antigenemic children was below the critical cutoff, suggesting that these districts do not require MDA. Only three Ethiopian districts exceeded the critical cutoff of positive results. Whereas the current World Health Organization guidelines would have recommended MDA in all 55 districts, the present results suggest that only three of these districts requires MDA. By avoiding unnecessary MDA in 52 districts, the confirmatory mapping strategy is estimated to have saved a total of $9,293,219.