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1. Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17

Author

Aniruddha Deshpande, Molly K Miller-Petrie, Paulina A Lindstedt, Mathew M Baumann, Kimberly B Johnson, Brigette F Blacker, Hedayat Abbastabar, Foad Abd-Allah, Ahmed Abdelalim, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Kedir Hussein Abegaz, Ayenew Negesse Abejie, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Ahmed Abualhasan, Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi, Abdu A Adamu, Oladimeji M Adebayo, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji, Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji O Adetokunboh, Tara Ballav Adhikari, Mohsen Afarideh, Marcela Agudelo-Botero, Mehdi Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadi, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Anwar E Ahmed, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Ali S Akanda, Fares Alahdab, Ziyad Al-Aly, Samiah Alam, Noore Alam, Genet Melak Alamene, Turki M Alanzi, James Albright, Ammar Albujeer, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal, Animut Alebel, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Muhammad Ali, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Vahid Alipour, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Ali Almasi, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi, Khalid A Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk, Saeed Amini, Arianna Maever L. Amit, Gianna Gayle Herrera Amul, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Mina Anjomshoa, Ansariadi Ansariadi, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Benny Antony, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Jalal Arabloo, Hany Mohamed Amin Aref, Olatunde Aremu, Bahram Armoon, Amit Arora, Krishna K Aryal, Afsaneh Arzani, Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi, Daniel Asmelash, Hagos Tasew Atalay, Seyyede Masoume Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Sachin R Atre, Marcel Ausloos, Shally Awasthi, Nefsu Awoke, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Getinet Ayano, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Yared Asmare Aynalem, Samad Azari, Andrew S Azman, Ebrahim Babaee, Alaa Badawi, Mojtaba Bagherzadeh, Shankar M Bakkannavar, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Maciej Banach, Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub, Aleksandra Barac, Miguel A Barboza, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Sanjay Basu, Vo Dinh Bay, Mohsen Bayati, Neeraj Bedi, Mahya Beheshti, Meysam Behzadifar, Masoud Behzadifar, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez, Michelle L Bell, Derrick A. Bennett, Habib Benzian, Dessalegn Ajema Berbada, Robert S Bernstein, Anusha Ganapati Bhat, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Soumyadeep Bhaumik, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Ali Bijani, Boris Bikbov, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Somayeh Bohlouli, Soufiane Boufous, Oliver J Brady, Andrey Nikolaevich Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, Gabrielle B Britton, Alexandria Brown, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Zahid A Butt, Luis Alberto Cámera, Ismael R Campos-Nonato, Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon, Jorge Cano, Josip Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Felix Carvalho, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Franz Castro, Ester Cerin, Binaya Chalise, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Ken Lee Chin, Devasahayam J Christopher, Dinh-Toi Chu, Natalie Maria Cormier, Vera Marisa Costa, Elizabeth A Cromwell, Abel Fekadu Fekadu Dadi, Tukur Dahiru, Saad M A Dahlawi, Rakhi Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Anh Kim Dang, Farah Daoud, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Amira Hamed Darwish, Ahmad Daryani, Jai K Das, Rajat Das Gupta, Aditya Prasad Dash, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Nicole Davis Weaver, Fernando Pio De la Hoz, Jan-Walter De Neve, Dereje Bayissa Demissie, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Kebede Deribe, Assefa Desalew, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Preeti Dhillon, Meghnath Dhimal, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Daniel Diaz, Isaac Oluwafemi Dipeolu, Hoa Thi Do, Christiane Dolecek, Kerrie E Doyle, Eleonora Dubljanin, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Hisham Atan Edinur, Andem Effiong, Aziz Eftekhari, Nevine El Nahas, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Maha El Tantawi, Hala Rashad Elhabashy, Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary, Ziad El-Khatib, Hajer Elkout, Aisha Elsharkawy, Shymaa Enany, Daniel Adane Endalew, Babak Eshrati, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Arash Etemadi, Oluchi Ezekannagha, Emerito Jose A. Faraon, Mohammad Fareed, Andre Faro, Farshad Farzadfar, Alebachew Fasil Fasil, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Valery L. Feigin, Wubalem Fekadu, Netsanet Fentahun, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Carsten Flohr, Nataliya A. Foigt, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Masoud Foroutan, Richard Charles Franklin, Joseph Jon Frostad, Takeshi Fukumoto, Mohamed M Gad, Gregory M Garcia, Augustine Mwangi Gatotoh, Reta Tsegaye Gayesa, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Farzaneh Ghazi Sherbaf, Tiffany K Gill, Paramjit Singh Gill, Themba G Ginindza, Alem Girmay, Zemichael Gizaw, Amador Goodridge, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart, Alessandra C Goulart, Ayman Grada, Manfred S Green, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Harish Chander Gugnani, Davide Guido, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Yuming Guo, Rajeev Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Giang Hai Ha, Juanita A. Haagsma, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Dessalegn H Haile, Michael Tamene Haile, Brian J. Hall, Samer Hamidi, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Hamidreza Haririan, Ninuk Hariyani, Ahmed I. Hasaballah, Md. Mehedi Hasan, Amir Hasanzadeh, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Desta Haftu Hayelom, Mohamed I Hegazy, Behzad Heibati, Behnam Heidari, Delia Hendrie, Andualem Henok, Claudiu Herteliu, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Hagos Degefa de Hidru, Thomas R Hird, Chi Linh Hoang, Gillian I Hollerich, Praveen Hoogar, Naznin Hossain, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mowafa Househ, Guoqing Hu, Ayesha Humayun, Syed Ather Hussain, Mamusha Aman A Hussen, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Milena D. Ilic, Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Rebecca Q Ivers, Chinwe Juliana Iwu, Nader Jahanmehr, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Amir Jalali, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Ensiyeh Jenabi, Ravi Prakash Jha, Vivekanand Jha, John S Ji, Jost B. Jonas, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Ali Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Tanuj Kanchan, André Karch, Surendra Karki, Amir Kasaeian, Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun, Habtamu Kebebe Kasaye, Gebrehiwot G Kassa, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Gbenga A. Kayode, Mihiretu M Kebede, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Daniel Bekele Ketema, Yousef Saleh Khader, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Nauman Khalid, Rovshan Khalilov, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Junaid Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Khan, Khaled Khatab, Mona M Khater, Amir M Khater, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Mohammad Khazaei, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Jagdish Khubchandani, Ali Kiadaliri, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Sezer Kisa, Adnan Kisa, Sonali Kochhar, Tufa Kolola, Hamidreza Komaki, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Nuworza Kugbey, Pushpendra Kumar, G Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Dian Kusuma, Carlo La Vecchia, Ben Lacey, Aparna Lal, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Hilton Lam, Faris Hasan Lami, Van Charles Lansingh, Savita Lasrado, Georgy Lebedev, Paul H Lee, Kate E LeGrand, Mostafa Leili, Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Aubrey J Levine, Sonia Lewycka, Shanshan Li, Shai Linn, Shiwei Liu, Jaifred Christian F Lopez, Platon D Lopukhov, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, D.R. Mahadeshwara Prasad, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Narayan B. Mahotra, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Abdullah A Mamun, Navid Manafi, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Chabila Christopher Mapoma, Gabriel Martinez, Santi Martini, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Manu Raj Mathur, Benjamin K Mayala, Mohsen Mazidi, Colm McAlinden, Birhanu Geta Meharie, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Entezar Mehrabi Nasab, Kala M Mehta, Teferi Mekonnen, Tefera Chane Mekonnen, Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles, Hagazi Gebre Meles, Peter T N Memiah, Ziad A Memish, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G Menezes, Seid Tiku Mereta, Tuomo J Meretoja, Tomislav Mestrovic, Workua Mekonnen Metekiya, Bartosz Miazgowski, Ted R Miller, GK Mini, Erkin M Mirrakhimov, Babak Moazen, Bahram Mohajer, Yousef Mohammad, Dara K. Mohammad, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh, Shafiu Mohammed, Jemal Abdu Mohammed, Hassen Mohammed, Farnam Mohebi, Ali H Mokdad, Yoshan Moodley, Masoud Moradi, Ghobad Moradi, Mohammad Moradi-Joo, Paula Moraga, Linda Morales, Abbas Mosapour, Jonathan F. Mosser, Simin Mouodi, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Miliva Mozaffor, Sandra B Munro, Moses K. Muriithi, Christopher J L Murray, Kamarul Imran Musa, Ghulam Mustafa, Saravanan Muthupandian, Mehdi Naderi, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Mohsen Naghavi, Gurudatta Naik, Vinay Nangia, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Javad Nazari, Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe, Ionut Negoi, Henok Biresaw Netsere, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, QuynhAnh P Nguyen, Solomon Gedlu Nigatu, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Marzieh Nojomi, Ole F Norheim, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Bogdan Oancea, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In-Hwan Oh, Andrew T Olagunju, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Obinna E Onwujekwe, Doris V. Ortega-Altamirano, Osayomwanbo Osarenotor, Frank B Osei, Mayowa O Owolabi, Mahesh P A, Jagadish Rao. Padubidri, Smita Pakhale, Adrian Pana, Eun-Kee Park, Sangram Kishor Patel, Ashish Pathak, Ajay Patle, Kebreab Paulos, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Norberto Perico, Aslam Pervaiz, Julia Moreira Pescarini, Konrad Pesudovs, Hai Quang Pham, David M Pigott, Thomas Pilgrim, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Mario Poljak, Ian Pollock, Maarten J Postma, Farshad Pourmalek, Akram Pourshams, Sergio I Prada, Liliana Preotescu, Hedley Quintana, Navid Rabiee, Mohammad Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Alireza Rafiei, Fakher Rahim, Siavash Rahimi, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Fatemeh Rajati, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Puja C Rao, Davide Rasella, Goura Kishor Rath, Salman Rawaf, Lal Rawal, Wasiq Faraz Rawasia, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Vishnu Renjith, Andre M.N. Renzaho, Serge Resnikoff, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Jennifer Rickard, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Enrico Rubagotti, Salvatore Rubino, Anas M Saad, Siamak Sabour, Ehsan Sadeghi, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Yahya Safari, Rajesh Sagar, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Nasir Salam, Ahsan Saleem, Hosni Salem, Marwa Rashad Salem, Yahya Salimi, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, Itamar S Santos, Milena M. Santric-Milicevic, Bruno Piassi Sao Jose, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Benn Sartorius, Brijesh Sathian, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Maheswar Satpathy, Monika Sawhney, Mehdi Sayyah, Alyssa N Sbarra, Lauren E Schaeffer, David C Schwebel, Anbissa Muleta Senbeta, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Edson Serván-Mori, Azadeh Shafieesabet, Amira A Shaheen, Izza Shahid, Masood Ali Shaikh, Ali S Shalash, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, MohammadBagher Shamsi, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Mohammed Shannawaz, Kiomars Sharafi, Rajesh Sharma, Aziz Sheikh, B Suresh Kumar Shetty, Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw, Mika Shigematsu, Jae Il Shin, Rahman Shiri, Reza Shirkoohi, K M Shivakumar, Si Si, Soraya Siabani, Tariq Jamal Siddiqi, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Virendra Singh, Narinder Pal Singh, Balbir Bagicha Singh Singh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Ambrish Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Malede Mequanent Sisay, Eirini Skiadaresi, David L Smith, Adauto Martins Soares Filho, Mohammad Reza Sobhiyeh, Anton Sokhan, Joan B Soriano, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Ireneous N Soyiri, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Agus Sudaryanto, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria, Bryan L. Sykes, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Takahiro Tabuchi, Degena Bahrey Tadesse, Ingan Ukur Tarigan, Bineyam Taye, Yonatal Mesfin Tefera, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin, Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Berhe Etsay Tesfay, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Akhil Soman ThekkePurakkal, Nihal Thomas, Robert L Thompson, Alan J Thomson, Roman Topor-Madry, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Eugenio Traini, Bach Xuan Tran, Khanh Bao Tran, Irfan Ullah, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Muhammad Shariq Usman, Olalekan A Uthman, Benjamin S. Chudi Uzochukwu, Pascual R Valdez, Santosh Varughese, Yousef Veisani, Francesco S Violante, Sebastian Vollmer, Feleke Gebremeskel W/hawariat, Yasir Waheed, Mitchell Taylor Wallin, Yuan-Pang Wang, Yafeng Wang, Kinley Wangdi, Daniel J Weiss, Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel, Adhena Ayaliew Werkneh, Ronny Westerman, Taweewat Wiangkham, Kirsten E Wiens, Tissa Wijeratne, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Getasew Taddesse Worku, Ali Yadollahpour, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Tomohide Yamada, Mehdi Yaseri, Hiroshi Yatsuya, Alex Yeshaneh, Mekdes Tigistu Yilma, Paul Yip, Engida Yisma, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Z Younis, Hebat-Allah Salah A Yousof, Chuanhua Yu, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Siddhesh Zadey, Telma Zahirian Moghadam, Zoubida Zaidi, Sojib Bin Zaman, Mohammad Zamani, Hamed Zandian, Heather J Zar, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Yunquan Zhang, Arash Ziapour, Sanjay Zodpey, Yves Miel H Zuniga, Simon I Hay, and Robert C Reiner, Jr

Subjects
Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract

Summary: Background: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings: Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation: Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2020
Full Text
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2. The global distribution of lymphatic filariasis, 2000–18: a geospatial analysis

Author

Aniruddha Deshpande, Molly K Miller-Petrie, Paulina A Lindstedt, Mathew M Baumann, Kimberly B Johnson, Brigette F Blacker, Hedayat Abbastabar, Foad Abd-Allah, Ahmed Abdelalim, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Kedir Hussein Abegaz, Ayenew Negesse Abejie, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Ahmed Abualhasan, Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi, Abdu A Adamu, Oladimeji M Adebayo, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji, Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji O Adetokunboh, Tara Ballav Adhikari, Mohsen Afarideh, Marcela Agudelo-Botero, Mehdi Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadi, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Anwar E Ahmed, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Ali S Akanda, Fares Alahdab, Ziyad Al-Aly, Samiah Alam, Noore Alam, Genet Melak Alamene, Turki M Alanzi, James Albright, Ammar Albujeer, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal, Animut Alebel, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Muhammad Ali, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Vahid Alipour, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Ali Almasi, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi, Khalid A Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk, Saeed Amini, Arianna Maever L. Amit, Gianna Gayle Herrera Amul, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Mina Anjomshoa, Ansariadi Ansariadi, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Benny Antony, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Jalal Arabloo, Hany Mohamed Amin Aref, Olatunde Aremu, Bahram Armoon, Amit Arora, Krishna K Aryal, Afsaneh Arzani, Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi, Daniel Asmelash, Hagos Tasew Atalay, Seyyede Masoume Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Sachin R Atre, Marcel Ausloos, Shally Awasthi, Nefsu Awoke, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Getinet Ayano, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Yared Asmare Aynalem, Samad Azari, Andrew S Azman, Ebrahim Babaee, Alaa Badawi, Mojtaba Bagherzadeh, Shankar M Bakkannavar, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Maciej Banach, Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub, Aleksandra Barac, Miguel A Barboza, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Sanjay Basu, Vo Dinh Bay, Mohsen Bayati, Neeraj Bedi, Mahya Beheshti, Meysam Behzadifar, Masoud Behzadifar, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez, Michelle L Bell, Derrick A. Bennett, Habib Benzian, Dessalegn Ajema Berbada, Robert S Bernstein, Anusha Ganapati Bhat, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Soumyadeep Bhaumik, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Ali Bijani, Boris Bikbov, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Somayeh Bohlouli, Soufiane Boufous, Oliver J Brady, Andrey Nikolaevich Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, Gabrielle B Britton, Alexandria Brown, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Zahid A Butt, Luis Alberto Cámera, Ismael R Campos-Nonato, Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon, Jorge Cano, Josip Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Felix Carvalho, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Franz Castro, Ester Cerin, Binaya Chalise, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Ken Lee Chin, Devasahayam J Christopher, Dinh-Toi Chu, Natalie Maria Cormier, Vera Marisa Costa, Elizabeth A Cromwell, Abel Fekadu Fekadu Dadi, Tukur Dahiru, Saad M A Dahlawi, Rakhi Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Anh Kim Dang, Farah Daoud, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Amira Hamed Darwish, Ahmad Daryani, Jai K Das, Rajat Das Gupta, Aditya Prasad Dash, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Nicole Davis Weaver, Fernando Pio De la Hoz, Jan-Walter De Neve, Dereje Bayissa Demissie, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Kebede Deribe, Assefa Desalew, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Preeti Dhillon, Meghnath Dhimal, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Daniel Diaz, Isaac Oluwafemi Dipeolu, Hoa Thi Do, Christiane Dolecek, Kerrie E Doyle, Eleonora Dubljanin, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Hisham Atan Edinur, Andem Effiong, Aziz Eftekhari, Nevine El Nahas, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Maha El Tantawi, Hala Rashad Elhabashy, Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary, Ziad El-Khatib, Hajer Elkout, Aisha Elsharkawy, Shymaa Enany, Daniel Adane Endalew, Babak Eshrati, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Arash Etemadi, Oluchi Ezekannagha, Emerito Jose A. Faraon, Mohammad Fareed, Andre Faro, Farshad Farzadfar, Alebachew Fasil Fasil, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Valery L. Feigin, Wubalem Fekadu, Netsanet Fentahun, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Carsten Flohr, Nataliya A. Foigt, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Masoud Foroutan, Richard Charles Franklin, Joseph Jon Frostad, Takeshi Fukumoto, Mohamed M Gad, Gregory M Garcia, Augustine Mwangi Gatotoh, Reta Tsegaye Gayesa, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Farzaneh Ghazi Sherbaf, Tiffany K Gill, Paramjit Singh Gill, Themba G Ginindza, Alem Girmay, Zemichael Gizaw, Amador Goodridge, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart, Alessandra C Goulart, Ayman Grada, Manfred S Green, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Harish Chander Gugnani, Davide Guido, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Yuming Guo, Rajeev Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Giang Hai Ha, Juanita A. Haagsma, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Dessalegn H Haile, Michael Tamene Haile, Brian J. Hall, Samer Hamidi, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Hamidreza Haririan, Ninuk Hariyani, Ahmed I. Hasaballah, Md. Mehedi Hasan, Amir Hasanzadeh, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Desta Haftu Hayelom, Mohamed I Hegazy, Behzad Heibati, Behnam Heidari, Delia Hendrie, Andualem Henok, Claudiu Herteliu, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Hagos Degefa de Hidru, Thomas R Hird, Chi Linh Hoang, Gillian I Hollerich, Praveen Hoogar, Naznin Hossain, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mowafa Househ, Guoqing Hu, Ayesha Humayun, Syed Ather Hussain, Mamusha Aman A Hussen, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Milena D. Ilic, Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Rebecca Q Ivers, Chinwe Juliana Iwu, Nader Jahanmehr, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Amir Jalali, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Ensiyeh Jenabi, Ravi Prakash Jha, Vivekanand Jha, John S Ji, Jost B. Jonas, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Ali Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Tanuj Kanchan, André Karch, Surendra Karki, Amir Kasaeian, Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun, Habtamu Kebebe Kasaye, Gebrehiwot G Kassa, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Gbenga A. Kayode, Mihiretu M Kebede, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Daniel Bekele Ketema, Yousef Saleh Khader, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Nauman Khalid, Rovshan Khalilov, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Junaid Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Khan, Khaled Khatab, Mona M Khater, Amir M Khater, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Mohammad Khazaei, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Jagdish Khubchandani, Ali Kiadaliri, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Sezer Kisa, Adnan Kisa, Sonali Kochhar, Tufa Kolola, Hamidreza Komaki, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Nuworza Kugbey, Pushpendra Kumar, G Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Dian Kusuma, Carlo La Vecchia, Ben Lacey, Aparna Lal, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Hilton Lam, Faris Hasan Lami, Van Charles Lansingh, Savita Lasrado, Georgy Lebedev, Paul H Lee, Kate E LeGrand, Mostafa Leili, Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Aubrey J Levine, Sonia Lewycka, Shanshan Li, Shai Linn, Shiwei Liu, Jaifred Christian F Lopez, Platon D Lopukhov, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, D.R. Mahadeshwara Prasad, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Narayan B. Mahotra, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Abdullah A Mamun, Navid Manafi, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Chabila Christopher Mapoma, Gabriel Martinez, Santi Martini, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Manu Raj Mathur, Benjamin K Mayala, Mohsen Mazidi, Colm McAlinden, Birhanu Geta Meharie, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Entezar Mehrabi Nasab, Kala M Mehta, Teferi Mekonnen, Tefera Chane Mekonnen, Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles, Hagazi Gebre Meles, Peter T N Memiah, Ziad A Memish, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G Menezes, Seid Tiku Mereta, Tuomo J Meretoja, Tomislav Mestrovic, Workua Mekonnen Metekiya, Bartosz Miazgowski, Ted R Miller, GK Mini, Erkin M Mirrakhimov, Babak Moazen, Bahram Mohajer, Yousef Mohammad, Dara K. Mohammad, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh, Shafiu Mohammed, Jemal Abdu Mohammed, Hassen Mohammed, Farnam Mohebi, Ali H Mokdad, Yoshan Moodley, Masoud Moradi, Ghobad Moradi, Mohammad Moradi-Joo, Paula Moraga, Linda Morales, Abbas Mosapour, Jonathan F. Mosser, Simin Mouodi, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Miliva Mozaffor, Sandra B Munro, Moses K. Muriithi, Christopher J L Murray, Kamarul Imran Musa, Ghulam Mustafa, Saravanan Muthupandian, Mehdi Naderi, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Mohsen Naghavi, Gurudatta Naik, Vinay Nangia, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Javad Nazari, Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe, Ionut Negoi, Henok Biresaw Netsere, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, QuynhAnh P Nguyen, Solomon Gedlu Nigatu, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Marzieh Nojomi, Ole F Norheim, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Bogdan Oancea, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In-Hwan Oh, Andrew T Olagunju, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Obinna E Onwujekwe, Doris V. Ortega-Altamirano, Osayomwanbo Osarenotor, Frank B Osei, Mayowa O Owolabi, Mahesh P A, Jagadish Rao. Padubidri, Smita Pakhale, Adrian Pana, Eun-Kee Park, Sangram Kishor Patel, Ashish Pathak, Ajay Patle, Kebreab Paulos, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Norberto Perico, Aslam Pervaiz, Julia Moreira Pescarini, Konrad Pesudovs, Hai Quang Pham, David M Pigott, Thomas Pilgrim, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Mario Poljak, Ian Pollock, Maarten J Postma, Farshad Pourmalek, Akram Pourshams, Sergio I Prada, Liliana Preotescu, Hedley Quintana, Navid Rabiee, Mohammad Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Alireza Rafiei, Fakher Rahim, Siavash Rahimi, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Fatemeh Rajati, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Puja C Rao, Davide Rasella, Goura Kishor Rath, Salman Rawaf, Lal Rawal, Wasiq Faraz Rawasia, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Vishnu Renjith, Andre M.N. Renzaho, Serge Resnikoff, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Jennifer Rickard, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Enrico Rubagotti, Salvatore Rubino, Anas M Saad, Siamak Sabour, Ehsan Sadeghi, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Yahya Safari, Rajesh Sagar, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Nasir Salam, Ahsan Saleem, Hosni Salem, Marwa Rashad Salem, Yahya Salimi, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, Itamar S Santos, Milena M. Santric-Milicevic, Bruno Piassi Sao Jose, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Benn Sartorius, Brijesh Sathian, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Maheswar Satpathy, Monika Sawhney, Mehdi Sayyah, Alyssa N Sbarra, Lauren E Schaeffer, David C Schwebel, Anbissa Muleta Senbeta, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Edson Serván-Mori, Azadeh Shafieesabet, Amira A Shaheen, Izza Shahid, Masood Ali Shaikh, Ali S Shalash, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, MohammadBagher Shamsi, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Mohammed Shannawaz, Kiomars Sharafi, Rajesh Sharma, Aziz Sheikh, B Suresh Kumar Shetty, Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw, Mika Shigematsu, Jae Il Shin, Rahman Shiri, Reza Shirkoohi, K M Shivakumar, Si Si, Soraya Siabani, Tariq Jamal Siddiqi, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Virendra Singh, Narinder Pal Singh, Balbir Bagicha Singh Singh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Ambrish Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Malede Mequanent Sisay, Eirini Skiadaresi, David L Smith, Adauto Martins Soares Filho, Mohammad Reza Sobhiyeh, Anton Sokhan, Joan B Soriano, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Ireneous N Soyiri, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Agus Sudaryanto, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria, Bryan L. Sykes, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Takahiro Tabuchi, Degena Bahrey Tadesse, Ingan Ukur Tarigan, Bineyam Taye, Yonatal Mesfin Tefera, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin, Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Berhe Etsay Tesfay, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Akhil Soman ThekkePurakkal, Nihal Thomas, Robert L Thompson, Alan J Thomson, Roman Topor-Madry, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Eugenio Traini, Bach Xuan Tran, Khanh Bao Tran, Irfan Ullah, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Muhammad Shariq Usman, Olalekan A Uthman, Benjamin S. Chudi Uzochukwu, Pascual R Valdez, Santosh Varughese, Yousef Veisani, Francesco S Violante, Sebastian Vollmer, Feleke Gebremeskel W/hawariat, Yasir Waheed, Mitchell Taylor Wallin, Yuan-Pang Wang, Yafeng Wang, Kinley Wangdi, Daniel J Weiss, Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel, Adhena Ayaliew Werkneh, Ronny Westerman, Taweewat Wiangkham, Kirsten E Wiens, Tissa Wijeratne, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Getasew Taddesse Worku, Ali Yadollahpour, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Tomohide Yamada, Mehdi Yaseri, Hiroshi Yatsuya, Alex Yeshaneh, Mekdes Tigistu Yilma, Paul Yip, Engida Yisma, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Z Younis, Hebat-Allah Salah A Yousof, Chuanhua Yu, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Siddhesh Zadey, Telma Zahirian Moghadam, Zoubida Zaidi, Sojib Bin Zaman, Mohammad Zamani, Hamed Zandian, Heather J Zar, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Yunquan Zhang, Arash Ziapour, Sanjay Zodpey, Yves Miel H Zuniga, Simon I Hay, and Robert C Reiner, Jr

Subjects
Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract

Summary: Background: Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease that can cause permanent disability through disruption of the lymphatic system. This disease is caused by parasitic filarial worms that are transmitted by mosquitos. Mass drug administration (MDA) of antihelmintics is recommended by WHO to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem. This study aims to produce the first geospatial estimates of the global prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection over time, to quantify progress towards elimination, and to identify geographical variation in distribution of infection. Methods: A global dataset of georeferenced surveyed locations was used to model annual 2000–18 lymphatic filariasis prevalence for 73 current or previously endemic countries. We applied Bayesian model-based geostatistics and time series methods to generate spatially continuous estimates of global all-age 2000–18 prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection mapped at a resolution of 5 km2 and aggregated to estimate total number of individuals infected. Findings: We used 14 927 datapoints to fit the geospatial models. An estimated 199 million total individuals (95% uncertainty interval 174–234 million) worldwide were infected with lymphatic filariasis in 2000, with totals for WHO regions ranging from 3·1 million (1·6–5·7 million) in the region of the Americas to 107 million (91–134 million) in the South-East Asia region. By 2018, an estimated 51 million individuals (43–63 million) were infected. Broad declines in prevalence are observed globally, but focal areas in Africa and southeast Asia remain less likely to have attained infection prevalence thresholds proposed to achieve local elimination. Interpretation: Although the prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection has declined since 2000, MDA is still necessary across large populations in Africa and Asia. Our mapped estimates can be used to identify areas where the probability of meeting infection thresholds is low, and when coupled with large uncertainty in the predictions, indicate additional data collection or intervention might be warranted before MDA programmes cease. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2020
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3. The Burden of Mental Disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013.

Author

Raghid Charara, Mohammad Forouzanfar, Mohsen Naghavi, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Ashkan Afshin, Theo Vos, Farah Daoud, Haidong Wang, Charbel El Bcheraoui, Ibrahim Khalil, Randah R Hamadeh, Ardeshir Khosravi, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Yousef Khader, Nawal Al-Hamad, Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer, Anwar Rafay, Rana Asghar, Saleem M Rana, Amira Shaheen, Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh, Abdullatif Husseini, Laith J Abu-Raddad, Tawfik Khoja, Zulfa A Al Rayess, Fadia S AlBuhairan, Mohamed Hsairi, Mahmoud A Alomari, Raghib Ali, Gholamreza Roshandel, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Samer Hamidi, Amany H Refaat, Ronny Westerman, Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri, Ali S Akanda, Syed Danish Ali, Umar Bacha, Alaa Badawi, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi, Imad A D Faghmous, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Florian Fischer, Jost B Jonas, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Alem Mehari, Saad B Omer, Farshad Pourmalek, Olalekan A Uthman, Ali A Mokdad, Fadi T Maalouf, Foad Abd-Allah, Nadia Akseer, Dinesh Arya, Rohan Borschmann, Alexandra Brazinova, Traolach S Brugha, Ferrán Catalá-López, Louisa Degenhardt, Alize Ferrari, Josep Maria Haro, Masako Horino, John C Hornberger, Hsiang Huang, Christian Kieling, Daniel Kim, Yunjin Kim, Ann Kristin Knudsen, Philip B Mitchell, George Patton, Rajesh Sagar, Maheswar Satpathy, Kim Savuon, Soraya Seedat, Ivy Shiue, Jens Christoffer Skogen, Dan J Stein, Karen M Tabb, Harvey A Whiteford, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Christopher J L Murray, and Ali H Mokdad

Subjects
Medicine, Science
Abstract

The Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) is witnessing an increase in chronic disorders, including mental illness. With ongoing unrest, this is expected to rise. This is the first study to quantify the burden of mental disorders in the EMR. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2013. DALYs (disability-adjusted life years) allow assessment of both premature mortality (years of life lost-YLLs) and nonfatal outcomes (years lived with disability-YLDs). DALYs are computed by adding YLLs and YLDs for each age-sex-country group. In 2013, mental disorders contributed to 5.6% of the total disease burden in the EMR (1894 DALYS/100,000 population): 2519 DALYS/100,000 (2590/100,000 males, 2426/100,000 females) in high-income countries, 1884 DALYS/100,000 (1618/100,000 males, 2157/100,000 females) in middle-income countries, 1607 DALYS/100,000 (1500/100,000 males, 1717/100,000 females) in low-income countries. Females had a greater proportion of burden due to mental disorders than did males of equivalent ages, except for those under 15 years of age. The highest proportion of DALYs occurred in the 25-49 age group, with a peak in the 35-39 years age group (5344 DALYs/100,000). The burden of mental disorders in EMR increased from 1726 DALYs/100,000 in 1990 to 1912 DALYs/100,000 in 2013 (10.8% increase). Within the mental disorders group in EMR, depressive disorders accounted for most DALYs, followed by anxiety disorders. Among EMR countries, Palestine had the largest burden of mental disorders. Nearly all EMR countries had a higher mental disorder burden compared to the global level. Our findings call for EMR ministries of health to increase provision of mental health services and to address the stigma of mental illness. Moreover, our results showing the accelerating burden of mental health are alarming as the region is seeing an increased level of instability. Indeed, mental health problems, if not properly addressed, will lead to an increased burden of diseases in the region.

Published
2017
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4. Health in times of uncertainty in the eastern Mediterranean region, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Author

Prof. Ali H Mokdad, PhD, Mohammad Hossein Forouzanfar, PhD, Farah Daoud, BS, Charbel El Bcheraoui, PhD, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, MD, Ibrahim Khalil, MD, Ashkan Afshin, DSc, Marwa Tuffaha, MD, Raghid Charara, MD, Ryan M Barber, BS, Joseph Wagner, BS, Kelly Cercy, BS, Hannah Kravitz, BS, Matthew M Coates, BA, Margaret Robinson, BA, Kara Estep, MPA, Caitlyn Steiner, MPH, Sara Jaber, MD, Ali A Mokdad, MD, Kevin F O'Rourke, MFA, Adrienne Chew, ND, Pauline Kim, BA, Mohamed Magdy Abd El Razek, MBBCh, Safa Abdalla, MD, Prof. Foad Abd-Allah, MD, Jerry P Abraham, MD, Laith J Abu-Raddad, PhD, Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh, PhD, Abdulwahab A Al-Nehmi, MD, Ali S Akanda, PhD, Hanan Al Ahmadi, DrPH, Mazin J Al Khabouri, PhD, Faris H Al Lami, PhD, Zulfa A Al Rayess, ABFM, Deena Alasfoor, MSc, Fadia S AlBuhairan, MD, Saleh F Aldhahri, MD, Suliman Alghnam, PhD, Samia Alhabib, PhD, Nawal Al-Hamad, PhD, Raghib Ali, FRCP, Syed Danish Ali, BA, Mohammad Alkhateeb, RN, Mohammad A AlMazroa, MD, Mahmoud A Alomari, PhD, Rajaa Al-Raddadi, PhD, Ubai Alsharif, MPH, Nihaya Al-Sheyab, PhD, Shirina Alsowaidi, FRCPC, Mohamed Al-Thani, FRCPCH, Khalid A Altirkawi, MD, Azmeraw T Amare, MPH, Heresh Amini, MSPH, Walid Ammar, PhD, Palwasha Anwari, MD, Hamid Asayesh, PhD, Rana Asghar, MD, Prof. Ali M Assabri, PhD, Reza Assadi, PhD, Umar Bacha, PhM, Alaa Badawi, PhD, Talal Bakfalouni, MD, Mohammed O Basulaiman, PhD, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi, PhD, Neeraj Bedi, MD, Amit R Bhakta, MD, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, PhD, Aref A Bin Abdulhak, MD, Soufiane Boufous, PhD, Rupert R A Bourne, FRCOphth, Hadi Danawi, PhD, Jai Das, MBA, Amare Deribew, PhD, Eric L Ding, ScD, Adnan M Durrani, MD, Yousef Elshrek, PhD, Mohamed E Ibrahim, MPhil, Babak Eshrati, PhD, Alireza Esteghamati, MD, Imad A D Faghmous, MPH, Farshad Farzadfar, MD, Andrea B Feigl, ScD, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, MD, Irina Filip, MD, Florian Fischer, MPH, Fortuné G Gankpé, MD, Ibrahim Ginawi, MD, Melkamu Dedefo Gishu, MS, Rahul Gupta, MD, Rami M Habash, MPH, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, MD, Prof. Randah R Hamadeh, DPhil, Hayet Hamdouni, PhD, Samer Hamidi, PhD, Hilda L Harb, MPH, Mohammad Sadegh Hassanvand, PhD, Mohammad T Hedayati, PhD, Pouria Heydarpour, MD, Prof. Mohamed Hsairi, MD, Abdullatif Husseini, PhD, Nader Jahanmehr, PhD, Prof. Vivekanand Jha, DM, Jost B Jonas, MD, Nadim E Karam, MD, Amir Kasaeian, PhD, Nega Assefa Kassa, PhD, Anil Kaul, MD, Prof. Yousef Khader, ScD, Shams Eldin A Khalifa, MSc, Ejaz A Khan, MPH, Gulfaraz Khan, PhD, Tawfik Khoja, FRCP, Ardeshir Khosravi, PhD, Yohannes Kinfu, PhD, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, PhD, Arjun Lakshmana Balaji, MPH, Raimundas Lunevicius, PhD, Prof. Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer, DSc, Reza Malekzadeh, MD, Morteza Mansourian, PhD, Prof. Wagner Marcenes, PhD, Habibolah Masoudi Farid, MD, Alem Mehari, MD, Abla Mehio-Sibai, PhD, Prof. Ziad A Memish, MD, George A Mensah, MD, Karzan A Mohammad, PhD, Prof. Ziad Nahas, MD, Jamal T Nasher, MSc, Haseeb Nawaz, MD, Prof. Chakib Nejjari, PhD, Muhammad Imran Nisar, MSc, Saad B Omer, PhD, Mahboubeh Parsaeian, PhD, Emmanuel K Peprah, PhD, Aslam Pervaiz, MHA, Farshad Pourmalek, PhD, Prof. Dima M Qato, PhD, Mostafa Qorbani, PhD, Amir Radfar, MD, Anwar Rafay, MS, Kazem Rahimi, DM, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, MD, Sajjad Ur Rahman, FRCPCH, Rajesh K Rai, MPH, Prof. Saleem M Rana, PhD, Sowmya R Rao, PhD, Amany H Refaat, PhD, Serge Resnikoff, MD, Gholamreza Roshandel, PhD, Georges Saade, MD, Mohammad Y Saeedi, PhD, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, MD, Shadi Saleh, PhD, Lidia Sanchez-Riera, PhD, Maheswar Satpathy, PhD, Sadaf G Sepanlou, MD, Tesfaye Setegn, MPH, Amira Shaheen, PhD, Saeid Shahraz, PhD, Sara Sheikhbahaei, MD, Kawkab Shishani, PhD, Prof. Karen Sliwa, PhD, Mohammad Tavakkoli, MD, Abdullah S Terkawi, MD, Olalekan A Uthman, PhD, Ronny Westerman, PhD, Mustafa Z Younis, DrPH, Prof. Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, PhD, Faiez Zannad, MD, Gregory A Roth, MD, Haidong Wang, PhD, Prof. Mohsen Naghavi, PhD, Prof. Theo Vos, PhD, Abdullah A Al Rabeeah, MBBS, Prof. Alan D Lopez, PhD, and Prof. Christopher J L Murray, DPhil

Subjects
Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract

Background: The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013. Methods: GBD 2013 includes an annual assessment covering 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. The study covers 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. Our GBD 2013 analyses included the addition of new data through updated systematic reviews and through the contribution of unpublished data sources from collaborators, an updated version of modelling software, and several improvements in our methods. In this systematic analysis, we use data from GBD 2013 to analyse the burden of disease and injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region specifically. Findings: The leading cause of death in the region in 2013 was ischaemic heart disease (90·3 deaths per 100 000 people), which increased by 17·2% since 1990. However, diarrhoeal diseases were the leading cause of death in Somalia (186·7 deaths per 100 000 people) in 2013, which decreased by 26·9% since 1990. The leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was ischaemic heart disease for males and lower respiratory infection for females. High blood pressure was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 2013, with an increase of 83·3% since 1990. Risk factors for DALYs varied by country. In low-income countries, childhood wasting was the leading cause of DALYs in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, whereas unsafe sex was the leading cause in Djibouti. Non-communicable risk factors were the leading cause of DALYs in high-income and middle-income countries in the region. DALY risk factors varied by age, with child and maternal malnutrition affecting the younger age groups (aged 28 days to 4 years), whereas high bodyweight and systolic blood pressure affected older people (aged 60–80 years). The proportion of DALYs attributed to high body-mass index increased from 3·7% to 7·5% between 1990 and 2013. Burden of mental health problems and drug use increased. Most increases in DALYs, especially from non-communicable diseases, were due to population growth. The crises in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria have resulted in a reduction in life expectancy; life expectancy in Syria would have been 5 years higher than that recorded for females and 6 years higher for males had the crisis not occurred. Interpretation: Our study shows that the eastern Mediterranean region is going through a crucial health phase. The Arab uprisings and the wars that followed, coupled with ageing and population growth, will have a major impact on the region's health and resources. The region has historically seen improvements in life expectancy and other health indicators, even under stress. However, the current situation will cause deteriorating health conditions for many countries and for many years and will have an impact on the region and the rest of the world. Based on our findings, we call for increased investment in health in the region in addition to reducing the conflicts. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2016
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8. Satellite‐Derived, Smartphone‐Delivered Geospatial Cholera Risk Information for Vulnerable Populations

Author

Farah Nusrat, Ali S. Akanda, Abdullah Islam, Sonia Aziz, Emily L. Pakhtigian, Kevin Boyle, and Syed Manzoor Ahmed Hanifi

Subjects
smartphone, geospatial, cholera forecast, Earth observations, early warning system, Environmental protection, TD169-171.8
Abstract

Abstract Cholera, an acute waterborne diarrheal disease, remains a major global health challenge. Despite being curable and preventable, it can be fatal if left untreated, especially for children. Bangladesh, a cholera‐endemic country with a high disease burden, experiences two peaks annually, during the dry pre‐monsoon spring and the wet post‐monsoon fall seasons. An early warning system for disseminating cholera risk, which has potential to reduce the disease burden, currently does not exist in Bangladesh. Such systems can raise timely awareness and allow households in rural, riverine areas like Matlab to make behavioral adjustments with water usage and around water resources to reduce contracting and transmitting cholera. Current dissemination approaches typically target local government and public health organizations; however, the vulnerable rural populations largely remain outside the information chain. Here, we develop and evaluate the accuracy of an early warning system—CholeraMap that uses high‐resolution earth observations to forecast cholera risk and disseminate geocoded risk maps directly to Matlab's population via a mobile smartphone application. Instead of relying on difficult to obtain station‐based environmental and hydroclimatological data, this study offers a new opportunity to use remote sensing data sets for designing and operating a disease early warning system. CholeraMap delivers monthly, color‐coded geospatial maps (1 km × 1 km spatial resolution) with household and community cholera risk information. Our results demonstrate that the satellite‐derived local‐scale risk model satisfactorily captured the seasonal cholera pattern for the Matlab region, and a detailed high‐resolution picture of the spatial progression of at‐risk areas during outbreak months.

Published
2024
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9. A data-driven global flood forecasting system for medium to large rivers

Author

Wahid Palash, Ali S. Akanda, and Shafiqul Islam

Subjects
Medicine, Science
Abstract

Abstract Losses from catastrophic floods are driving intense efforts to increase preparedness and improve response to disastrous flood events by providing early warnings. Yet accurate flood forecasting remains a challenge due to uncertainty in modeling, calibrating, and validating a useful early warning system. This paper presents the Requisitely Simple (ReqSim) flood forecasting system that includes key variables and processes of basin hydrology and atmospheric forcing in a data-driven modeling framework. The simplicity of the modeling structure and data requirements of the system allows for customization and implementation in any medium to large rain-fed river basin globally, provided there are water level or discharge measurements at the forecast locations. The proposed system's efficacy is demonstrated in this paper through providing useful forecasts for various river basins around the world. This include 3–10-day forecasts for the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers in South Asia, 2–3-day forecast for the Amur and Yangtze rivers in East Asia, 5–10-day forecasts for the Niger, Congo and Zambezi rivers in West and Central Africa, 6–8-day forecasts for the Danube River in Europe, 2–5-day forecasts for the Parana River in South America, and 2–7-day forecasts for the Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, and Arkansas rivers in the USA. The study also quantifies the effect of basin size, topography, hydrometeorology, and river flow controls on forecast accuracy and lead times. Results indicate that ReqSim's forecasts perform better in river systems with moderate slopes, high flow persistence, and less flow controls. The simple structure, minimal data requirements, ease of operation, and useful operational accuracy make ReqSim an attractive option for effective real-time flood forecasting in medium and large river basins worldwide.

Published
2024
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10. Assessment of Urban Water-Energy Interactions and Heat Island Signatures in Rhode Island

Author

Fabian Wagner, Farah Nusrat, Leon Thiem, and Ali S. Akanda

Subjects
Urban Water-Energy-Nexus, Urban Heat Islands, Land Surface Temperature, Landsat, Renewable energy sources, TJ807-830, Agriculture (General), S1-972
Abstract

Rhode Island is the smallest and the second-most densely populated state in the USA. It is also one of the most severely affected states on the Eastern Seaboard due to Climate Change. While Rhode Island residents pay some of the highest energy prices in the country, its less resourceful suburban residents around the capital city, Providence, are exposed to harmful heat island effects during the summer months. As water and wastewater utility operators are often the largest energy consumers in American municipalities, water, and energy consumption exhibit directly evident connections in urban environments. In this study, we employ an Urban-Water-Energy (UWE)-Nexus approach to understand water and energy demand and their interactions in both space and time for Rhode Island; we quantify the extent and exposure of the Urban Heat Island effects among its towns and urban populations using high-resolution details.

Published
2022
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11. Discerning Watershed Response to Hydroclimatic Extremes with a Deep Convolutional Residual Regressive Neural Network

Author

Albert Larson, Abdeltawab Hendawi, Thomas Boving, Soni M. Pradhanang, and Ali S. Akanda

Subjects
water, climate, sustainability, supervised representation learning, societal considerations, Science
Abstract

The impact of climate change continues to manifest itself daily in the form of extreme events and conditions such as droughts, floods, heatwaves, and storms. Better forecasting tools are mandatory to calibrate our response to these hazards and help adapt to the planet’s dynamic environment. Here, we present a deep convolutional residual regressive neural network (dcrrnn) platform called Flux to Flow (F2F) for discerning the response of watersheds to water-cycle fluxes and their extremes. We examine four United States drainage basins of varying acreage from smaller to very large (Bear, Colorado, Connecticut, and Mississippi). F2F combines model and ground observations of water-cycle fluxes in the form of surface runoff, subsurface baseflow, and gauged streamflow. We use these time series datasets to simulate, visualize, and analyze the watershed basin response to the varying climates and magnitudes of hydroclimatic fluxes in each river basin. Experiments modulating the time lag between remotely sensed and ground-truth measurements are performed to assess the metrological limits of forecasting with this platform. The resultant mean Nash–Sutcliffe and Kling–Gupta efficiency values are both greater than 90%. Our results show that a hydrological machine learning platform such as F2F can become a powerful resource to simulate and forecast hydroclimatic extremes and the resulting watershed responses and natural hazards in a changing global climate.

Published
2023
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12. Quantification of Rotavirus Diarrheal Risk Due to Hydroclimatic Extremes Over South Asia: Prospects of Satellite‐Based Observations in Detecting Outbreaks

Author

M. Alfi Hasan, Colleen Mouw, Antarpreet Jutla, and Ali S. Akanda

Subjects
rotavirus, climate, diarrhea, extremes, forecasting, remote sensing, Environmental protection, TD169-171.8
Abstract

Abstract Rotavirus is the most common cause of diarrheal disease among children under 5. Especially in South Asia, rotavirus remains the leading cause of mortality in children due to diarrhea. As climatic extremes and safe water availability significantly influence diarrheal disease impacts in human populations, hydroclimatic information can be a potential tool for disease preparedness. In this study, we conducted a multivariate temporal and spatial assessment of 34 climate indices calculated from ground and satellite Earth observations to examine the role of temperature and rainfall extremes on the seasonality of rotavirus transmission in Bangladesh. We extracted rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Measurement and temperature data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensors to validate the analyses and explore the potential of a satellite‐based seasonal forecasting model. Our analyses found that the number of rainy days and nighttime temperature range from 16°C to 21°C are particularly influential on the winter transmission cycle of rotavirus. The lower number of wet days with suitable cold temperatures for an extended time accelerates the onset and intensity of the outbreaks. Temporal analysis over Dhaka also suggested that water logging during monsoon precipitation influences rotavirus outbreaks during a summer transmission cycle. The proposed model shows lag components, which allowed us to forecast the disease outbreaks 1 to 2 months in advance. The satellite data‐driven forecasts also effectively captured the increased vulnerability of dry‐cold regions of the country, compared to the wet‐warm regions.

Published
2018
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13. Prioritizing Water Security in the Management of Vector‐Borne Diseases: Lessons From Oaxaca, Mexico

Author

Ali S. Akanda, Kristin Johnson, Howard S. Ginsberg, and Jannelle Couret

Subjects
Dengue, Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, mosquito, water insecurity, Oaxaca, Environmental protection, TD169-171.8
Abstract

Abstract Changes in human water use, along with temperature and rainfall patterns, are facilitating habitat spread and distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, the primary vectors for the transmission of Dengue, Chikungunya, and Zika viruses in the Americas. Artificial containers and wet spots provide major sources of mosquito larval habitat in residential areas. Mosquito abatement and control strategies remain the most effective public health interventions for minimizing the impact of these vector‐borne diseases. Understanding how water insecurity is conducive to the establishment and elimination of endemic mosquito populations, particularly in arid or semiarid regions, is a vital component in shaping these intervention strategies.

Published
2020
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