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Travel across multiple time zones results in desynchronization of environmental time cues and the sleep–wake schedule from their normal phase relationships with the endogenous circadian system. Circadian misalignment can result in poor neurobehavioral performance, decreased sleep efficiency, and inappropriately timed physiological signals including gastrointestinal activity and hormone release. Frequent and repeated transmeridian travel is associated with long-term cognitive deficits, and rodents experimentally exposed to repeated schedule shifts have increased death rates. One approach to reduce the short-term circadian, sleep–wake, and performance problems is to use mathematical models of the circadian pacemaker to design countermeasures that rapidly shift the circadian pacemaker to align with the new schedule. In this paper, the use of mathematical models to design sleep–wake and countermeasure schedules for improved performance is demonstrated. We present an approach to designing interventions that combines an algorithm for optimal placement of countermeasures with a novel mode of schedule representation. With these methods, rapid circadian resynchrony and the resulting improvement in neurobehavioral performance can be quickly achieved even after moderate to large shifts in the sleep–wake schedule. The key schedule design inputs are endogenous circadian period length, desired sleep–wake schedule, length of intervention, background light level, and countermeasure strength. The new schedule representation facilitates schedule design, simulation studies, and experiment design and significantly decreases the amount of time to design an appropriate intervention. The method presented in this paper has direct implications for designing jet lag, shift-work, and non-24-hour schedules, including scheduling for extreme environments, such as in space, undersea, or in polar regions.

Several approaches have been proposed for near real-time detection and prediction of the spread of influenza. These include search query data for influenza-related terms, which has been explored as a tool for augmenting traditional surveillance methods. In this paper, we present a method that uses Internet search query data from Baidu to model and monitor influenza activity in China. The objectives of the study are to present a comprehensive technique for: (i) keyword selection, (ii) keyword filtering, (iii) index composition and (iv) modeling and detection of influenza activity in China. Sequential time-series for the selected composite keyword index is significantly correlated with Chinese influenza case data. In addition, one-month ahead prediction of influenza cases for the first eight months of 2012 has a mean absolute percent error less than 11%. To our knowledge, this is the first study on the use of search query data from Baidu in conjunction with this approach for estimation of influenza activity in China.

Precise spike coordination between the spiking activities of multiple neurons is suggested as an indication of coordinated network activity in active cell assemblies. Spike correlation analysis aims to identify such cooperative network activity by detecting excess spike synchrony in simultaneously recorded multiple neural spike sequences. Cooperative activity is expected to organize dynamically during behavior and cognition; therefore currently available analysis techniques must be extended to enable the estimation of multiple time-varying spike interactions between neurons simultaneously. In particular, new methods must take advantage of the simultaneous observations of multiple neurons by addressing their higher-order dependencies, which cannot be revealed by pairwise analyses alone. In this paper, we develop a method for estimating time-varying spike interactions by means of a state-space analysis. Discretized parallel spike sequences are modeled as multi-variate binary processes using a log-linear model that provides a well-defined measure of higher-order spike correlation in an information geometry framework. We construct a recursive Bayesian filter/smoother for the extraction of spike interaction parameters. This method can simultaneously estimate the dynamic pairwise spike interactions of multiple single neurons, thereby extending the Ising/spin-glass model analysis of multiple neural spike train data to a nonstationary analysis. Furthermore, the method can estimate dynamic higher-order spike interactions. To validate the inclusion of the higher-order terms in the model, we construct an approximation method to assess the goodness-of-fit to spike data. In addition, we formulate a test method for the presence of higher-order spike correlation even in nonstationary spike data, e.g., data from awake behaving animals. The utility of the proposed methods is tested using simulated spike data with known underlying correlation dynamics. Finally, we apply the methods to neural spike data simultaneously recorded from the motor cortex of an awake monkey and demonstrate that the higher-order spike correlation organizes dynamically in relation to a behavioral demand.

The problem of genotyping polyploids is extremely important for the creation of genetic maps and assembly of complex plant genomes. Despite its significance, polyploid genotyping still remains largely unsolved and suffers from a lack of statistical formality. In this paper a graphical Bayesian model for SNP genotyping data is introduced. This model can infer genotypes even when the ploidy of the population is unknown. We also introduce an algorithm for finding the exact maximum a posteriori genotype configuration with this model. This algorithm is implemented in a freely available web-based software package SuperMASSA. We demonstrate the utility, efficiency, and flexibility of the model and algorithm by applying them to two different platforms, each of which is applied to a polyploid data set: Illumina GoldenGate data from potato and Sequenom MassARRAY data from sugarcane. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on both data sets and can be trivially adapted to use models that utilize prior information about any platform or species.

Intraneoplastic diversity in human tumors is a widespread phenomenon of critical importance for tumor progression and the response to therapeutic intervention. Insights into the evolutionary events that control tumor heterogeneity would be a major breakthrough in our comprehension of cancer development and could lead to more effective prevention methods and therapies. In this paper, we design an evolutionary mathematical framework to study the dynamics of heterogeneity over time. We consider specific situations arising during tumorigenesis, such as the emergence of positively selected mutations ("drivers") and the accumulation of neutral variation ("passengers"). We perform exact computer simulations of the emergence of diverse tumor cell clones over time, and derive analytical estimates for the extent of heterogeneity within a population of cancer cells. Our methods contribute to a quantitative understanding of tumor heterogeneity and the impact of heritable alterations on this tumor trait.