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This paper builds a stochastic model of the processes that give rise to observed patterns of representation and bias in congressional and state legislative elections. The analysis demonstrates that partisan swing and incumbency voting, concepts from the congressional elections literature, have determinate effects on representation and bias, concepts from the redistrictihg literature. The model shows precisely how incumbency and increased variability of partisan swing reduce the responsiveness of the electoral system and how partisan swing affects whether the system is biased toward one party or the other. Incumbency, and other causes of unresponsive representation, also reduce the effect of partisan swing on current levels of partisan bias. By relaxing the restrictive portions of the widely applied "uniform partisan swing" assumption, the theoretical analysis leads directly to an empirical model enabling one more reliably to estimate responsiveness and bias from a single year of electoral data. Applying this to data from seven elections in each of six states, the paper demonstrates that redistricting has effects in predicted directions in the short run: partisan gerrymandering biases the system in favor of the party in control and, by freeing up seats held by opposition party incumbents, increases the system's responsiveness. Bipartisan-controlled redistricting appears to reduce bias somewhat and dramatically to reduce responsiveness. Nonpartisan redistricting processes substantially increase responsiveness but do not have as clear an effect on bias. However, after only two elections, prima facie evidence for redistricting effects evaporate in most states. Finally, across every state and type of redistricting process, responsiveness declined significantly over the course of the decade. This is clear evidence that the phenomenon of "vanishing marginals," recognized first in the U.S. Congress literature, also applies to these different types of state legislative assemblies. It also strongly suggests that redistricting could not account for this pattern., Government

In this paper, we propose an extension of the productivity decomposition method developed by Olley & Pakes (1996). This extension provides an accounting for the contributions of both firm entry and exit to aggregate productivity changes. It breaks down the contribution of surviving firms into a component accounting for changes in the firm-level distribution of productivity and another accounting for market share reallocations among those firms - following the same methodology as the one proposed by Olley & Pakes (1996). We argue that the other decompositions that break-down aggregate productivity changes into these same four components introduce some biases in the measurement of the contributions of entry and exit. We apply our proposed decomposition to the large measured increases of productivity in Slovenian manufacturing during the 1995-2000 period and contrast our results with those of other decompositions. We find that, over a 5-year period, the measurement bias associated with entry and exit is substantial, accounting for up to 10 percentage points of aggregate productivity growth. We also find that market share reallocations among surviving firms played a much more important role in driving aggregate productivity changes., Economics

This paper demonstrates the enrichment of reticulocytes by centrifuging whole blood through aqueous multiphase systems (AMPSs)—immiscible phases of solutions of polymers that form step-gradients in density. The interfaces of an AMPS concentrate cells; this concentration facilitates the extraction of blood enriched for reticulocytes. AMPS enrich reticulocytes from blood from both healthy and hemochromatosis donors. Varying the osmolality and density of the phases of AMPS provides different levels of enrichment and yield of reticulocytes. A maximum enrichment of reticulocytemia of 64 ± 3% was obtained from donors with hemochromatosis. When used on peripheral blood from normal donors, AMPS can provide a higher yield of enriched reticulocytes and a higher proportion of reticulocytes expressing CD71 than differential centrifugation followed by centrifugation over Percoll. Blood enriched for reticulocytes by AMPS could be useful for research on malaria. Several species of malaria parasites show a preference to invade young erythrocytes and reticulocytes; this preference complicates in vitro cultivation of these species in human blood. Plasmodium knowlesi malaria parasites invade normal human blood enriched for reticulocytes by AMPSs at a rate 2.2 times greater (P < 0.01) than they invade unenriched blood. Parasite invasion in normal blood enriched by AMPS was 1.8 times greater (P < 0.05) than in blood enriched to a similar reticulocytemia by differential centrifugation followed by centrifugation over Percoll. The enrichment of reticulocytes that are invaded by malaria parasites demonstrates that AMPSs can provide a label-free method to enrich cells for biological research., Chemistry and Chemical Biology

We explore the phenomenon of co-authorship by economists who share a surname. Prior research has included at most two economist co-authors who share a surname. Ours is the first paper to have three economist co-authors who share a surname, as well as the first where such co-authors are unrelated by marriage or blood., Economics

Reaching for yield—the propensity to buy riskier assets in order to achieve higher yields—is believed to be an important factor contributing to the credit cycle. This paper analyses this phenomenon in the corporate bond market. Specifically, we show evidence for reaching for yield among insurance companies, the largest institutional holders of corporate bonds. Insurance companies have capital requirements tied to the credit ratings of their investments. Conditional on ratings, insurance portfolios are systematically biased toward higher yield, higher CDS bonds. This behavior appears to be related to the business cycle, being most pronounced during economic expansions. It is also more pronounced for the insurance firms for which regulatory capital requirements are more binding. The results hold both at issuance and for trading in the secondary market and are robust to a series of bond and issuer controls, including issuer fixed effects as well as liquidity and duration. Comparison of the ex-post performance of bonds acquired by insurance companies does not show outperformance but higher volatility of realized returns.

The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) is a multi-component epidemiological and neurobiological study designed to generate actionable recommendations to reduce U.S. Army suicides and increase knowledge about determinants of suicidality. Three Army STARRS component studies are large-scale surveys: one of new soldiers prior to beginning Basic Combat Training (BCT; n=50,765 completed self-administered questionnaires); another of other soldiers exclusive of those in BCT (n=35,372); and a third of three Brigade Combat Teams about to deploy to Afghanistan who are being followed multiple times after returning from deployment (n= 9,421). Although the response rates in these surveys are quite good (72.0-90.8%), questions can be raised about sample biases in estimating prevalence of mental disorders and suicidality, the main outcomes of the surveys based on evidence that people in the general population with mental disorders are under-represented in community surveys. This paper presents the results of analyses designed to determine whether such bias exists in the Army STARRS surveys and, if so, to develop weights to correct for these biases. Data are also presented on sample inefficiencies introduced by weighting and sample clustering and on analyses of the trade-off between bias and efficiency in weight trimming., Psychology

The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) is a multi-component epidemiological and neurobiological study of unprecedented size and complexity designed to generate actionable evidence-based recommendations to reduce U.S. Army suicides and increase basic knowledge about determinants of suicidality by carrying out coordinated component studies. A number of major logistical challenges were faced in implementing these studies. The current report presents an overview of the approaches taken to meet these challenges, with a special focus on the field procedures used to implement the component studies. As detailed in the paper, these challenges were addressed at the onset of the initiative by establishing an Executive Committee, a Data Coordination Center (the Survey Research Center [SRC] at the University of Michigan), and study-specific design and analysis teams that worked with staff on instrumentation and field procedures. SRC staff, in turn, worked with the Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of the Army (ODUSA) and local Army Points of Contact (POCs) to address logistical issues and facilitate data collection. These structures, coupled with careful fieldworker training, supervision, and piloting contributed to the major Army STARRS data collection efforts having higher response rates than previous large-scale studies of comparable military samples., Psychology

This paper examines predictors of breastfeeding cessation among a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women. This was a prospective follow-up study of HIV-infected women who participated in a randomized micronutrient supplementation trial conducted in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. 795 HIV-infected Tanzanian women with singleton newborns were utilized from the cohort for this analysis. The proportion of women breastfeeding declined from 95% at 12 months to 11% at 24 months. The multivariate analysis showed breastfeeding cessation was significantly associated with increasing calendar year of delivery from 1995 to 1997 [risk ratio (RR), 1.36; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13–1.63], having a new pregnancy (RR 1.33; 95% CI 1.10–1.61), overweight [body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg m−2; RR 1.37; 95% CI 1.07–1.75], underweight (BMI <18.5 kg m−2; RR 1.29; 95% CI 1.00–1.65), introduction of cow’s milk at infant’s age of 4 months (RR 1.30; 95% CI 1.04–1.63). Material and social support was associated with decreased likelihood of cessation (RR 0.83; 95% CI 0.68–1.02). Demographic, health and nutritional factors among women and infants are associated with decisions by HIV-infected women to cease breastfeeding. The impact of breastfeeding counselling programs for HIV-infected African women should consider individual maternal, social and health contexts.

Material indentation studies, in which a probe is brought into controlled physical contact with an experimental sample, have long been a primary means by which scientists characterize the mechanical properties of materials. More recently, the advent of atomic force microscopy, which operates on the same fundamental principle, has in turn revolutionized the nanoscale analysis of soft biomaterials such as cells and tissues. This paper addresses the inferential problems associated with material indentation and atomic force microscopy, through a framework for the changepoint analysis of pre- and post-contact data that is applicable to experiments across a variety of physical scales. A hierarchical Bayesian model is proposed to account for experimentally observed changepoint smoothness constraints and measurement error variability, with efficient Monte Carlo methods developed and employed to realize inference via posterior sampling for parameters such as Young’s modulus, a key quantifier of material stiffness. These results are the first to provide the materials science community with rigorous inference procedures and uncertainty quantification, via optimized and fully automated high-throughput algorithms, implemented as the publicly available software package BayesCP. To demonstrate the consistent accuracy and wide applicability of this approach, results are shown for a variety of data sets from both macro- and micro-materials experiments—including silicone, neurons, and red blood cells—conducted by the authors and others., Engineering and Applied Sciences

Current disease association studies are routinely conducted on a genome-wide scale, testing hundreds of thousands or millions of genetic markers. Besides detecting marginal associations of individual markers with the disease, it is also of interest to identify gene–gene and gene–environment interactions, which confer susceptibility to the disease risk. The astronomical number of possible combinations of markers and environmental factors, however, makes interaction mapping a daunting task both computationally and statistically. In this paper, we review and discuss a set of Bayesian partition methods developed recently for mapping single-nucleotide polymorphisms in case-control studies, their extension to quantitative traits, and further generalization to multiple traits. We use simulation and real data sets to demonstrate the performance of these methods, and we compare them with some existing interaction mapping algorithms. With the recent advance in high-throughput sequencing technologies, genome-wide measurements of epigenetic factor enrichment, structural variations, and transcription activities become available at the individual level. The tsunami of data creates more challenges for gene–gene interaction mapping, but at the same time provides new opportunities that, if utilized properly through sophisticated statistical means, can improve the power of mapping interactions at the genome scale., Statistics

While the United States welcomes foreign-born students and trainees and, less warmly, temporary workers such as H-1B visa holders, it places an array of requirements, obstacles, and delays upon persons who would like to make the U.S. their permanent home. The number of people in the queue for legal permanent residence (LPR) is, however, difficult to ascertain. This paper estimates the number of highly skilled foreign-born persons waiting for LPR via the three main employment-based categories, separately by whether they are living in the United States or abroad, as well as the number of family members. We find that as of the end of FY 2006 there were about half a million employment-based principals awaiting LPR in the United States, together with over half a million family members, plus over 125 thousand principals and family members waiting abroad. These numbers dwarf the visas available annually – 120,120 plus any not used in the family preferences – suggesting that the long delays in gaining legal permanent residence are a visa number problem, not an administrative processing problem, as many believe. The backlog thus cannot be eliminated without a large change in public policy. The delay in gaining legal permanent residence could contribute to the decision of many highly skilled foreign-born to leave the United States., Economics

This paper studies a Diamond–Dybvig model of providing insurance against unobservable liquidity shocks in the presence of unobservable trades. We show that competitive equilibria are inefficient. A social planner finds it beneficial to introduce a wedge between the interest rate implicit in optimal allocations and the economy's marginal rate of transformation. This improves risk sharing by reducing the attractiveness of joint deviations where agents simultaneously misrepresent their type and engage in trades on private markets. We propose a simple implementation of the optimum that imposes a constraint on the portfolio share that financial intermediaries invest in short-term assets., Economics

Foundation species control biodiversity and ecosystem processes, but are difficult to identify. In this issue of Journal of Vegetation Science, Elumeeva et al. show that Festuca varia and Nardus stricta act as foundation species in the Caucasus’ alpine. This paper augments the piecemeal literature on foundation species while highlighting the need for more comprehensive approaches to their identification and conservation., Organismic and Evolutionary Biology

Advanced market economies are characterized by a continuous process of creative destruction. Market forces and technological developments play a major role in shaping this process, but institutional and policy settings also influence firms' decision to enter, to expand if successful and to exit if competition becomes unbearable. In this paper we focus on the effects of financial development on the entry of new firms and the expansion of successful new businesses. Drawing from harmonized firm-level data for 16 industrialized and emerging economies, we find that access to finance matters most for the entry of small firms and in sectors that are more dependent upon external finance. This finding is robust to controlling for other potential entry barriers (labour market regulations and entry regulations). On the other hand, financial development has either no effect or a negative effect on entry by large firms. Access to finance also helps new firms expand if successful. Both private credit and stock market capitalization are important for promoting entry and post-entry growth of firms. Altogether, these results suggest that, despite significant progress over the past decade, many countries, including those in Continental Europe, should improve their financial markets so as to get the most out of creative destruction, by encouraging the entry of new (especially small) firms and the post-entry growth of successful young businesses., Economics

The photometric calibration of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) is a multi-step process which involves data from three different telescopes: the 1.0-m telescope at the US Naval Observatory (USNO), Flagstaff Station, Arizona (which was used to establish the SDSS standard star network); the SDSS 0.5-m Photometric Telescope (PT) at the Apache Point Observatory (APO), New Mexico (which calculates nightly extinctions and calibrates secondary patch transfer fields); and the SDSS 2.5-m telescope at APO (which obtains the imaging data for the SDSS proper). In this paper, we describe the Monitor Telescope Pipeline, MTPIPE, the software pipeline used in processing the data from the single-CCD telescopes used in the photometric calibration of the SDSS (i.e., the USNO 1.0-m and the PT). We also describe transformation equations that convert photometry on the USNO-1.0m u'g'r'i'z' system to photometry the SDSS 2.5m ugriz system and the results of various validation tests of the MTPIPE software. Further, we discuss the semi-automated PT factory, which runs MTPIPE in the day-to-day standard SDSS operations at Fermilab. Finally, we discuss the use of MTPIPE in current SDSS-related projects, including the Southern u'g'r'i'z' Standard Star project, the u'g'r'i'z' Open Star Clusters project, and the SDSS extension (SDSS-II)., Astronomy

In this paper, we investigate a neglected aspect of financial systems of many countries around the world: government ownership of banks. We assemble data which establish four findings. First, government ownership of banks is large and pervasive around the world. Second, such ownership is particularly significant in countries with low levels of per capita income, underdeveloped financial systems, interventionist and inefficient governments, and poor protection of property rights. Third, government ownership of banks is associated with slower subsequent financial development. Finally, government ownership of banks is associated with lower subsequent growth of per capita income, and in particular with lower growth of productivity rather than slower factor accumulation. This evidence is inconsistent with the optimistic “development” theories of government ownership of banks common in the 1960s, but supports the more recent “political” theories of the effects of government ownership of firms., Economics

This paper outlines and tests two agency models of dividends. According to the “outcome” model, dividends are the result of effective pressure by minority shareholders to force corporate insiders to disgorge cash. According to the “substitute” model, insiders interested in issuing equity in the future choose to pay dividends to establish a reputation for decent treatment of minority shareholders. The first model predicts that stronger minority shareholder rights should be associated with higher dividend payouts; the second model predicts the opposite. Tests on a cross-section of 4,000 companies from 33 countries with different levels of minority shareholder rights support the outcome agency model of dividends., Economics

This paper surveys research on corporate governance, with special attention to the importance of legal protection of investors and of ownership concentration in corporate governance systems around the world., Economics

This paper examines the hypothesis that the superior return to so-called value stocks is the result of expectational errors made by investors. We study stock price reactions around earnings announcements for value and glamour stock over a 5 year period after portfolio formation. The announcement returns suggest that a significant portion of the return difference between value and glamour stocks is attributable to earnings surprises that are systematically more positive for value stocks. The evidence is inconsistent with a risk-based explanation for the return differential., Economics

This paper presents analytical, Monte Carlo, and empirical evidence on models for event count data. Event counts are dependent variables that measure the number of times some event occurs. Counts of international events are probably the most common, but numerous examples exist in every empirical field of the discipline. The results of the analysis below strongly suggest that the way event counts have been analyzed in hundreds of important political science studies have produced statisti- cally and substantively unreliable results. Misspecification, inefficiency, bias, inconsistency, insufficiency, and other problems result from the unknowing application of two common methods that are without theoretical justification or empirical utility in this type of data. I show that the exponential Poisson regression (EPR) model provides analytically, in large samples, and empirically, in small, finite samples, a far superior model and optimal estimator. I also demonstrate the advantage of this methodology in an application to nineteenth-century party switching in the U.S. Congress. Its use by political scientists is strongly encouraged., Government

This paper discusses the problem of variance specification in models for event count data. Event counts are dependent variables that can take on only nonnegative integer values, such as the number of wars or coups d'etat in a year. I discuss several generalizations of the Poisson regression model, presented in King (1988), to allow for substantively interesting stochastic processes that do not fit into the Poisson framework. Individual models that cope with, and help analyze, heterogeneity, contagion. and negative contagion are each shown to lead to specific statistical models for event count data. In addition. I derive a new generalized event count (GEC) model that enables researchers to extract significant amounts of new information from existing data by estimating features of these unobserved substantive processes. Applications of this model to congressional challenges of presidential vetoes and superpower conflict demonstrate the dramatic advantages of this approach., Government

The literature on cabinet duration is split between two apparently irreconcilable positions. The attributes theorists seek to explain cabinet duration as a fixed function of measured explanatory variables, while the events process theorists model cabinet durations as a product of purely stochastic processes. In this paper we build a unified statistical model that combines the insights of these previously distinct approaches. We also generalize this unified model, and all previous models, by including (1) a stochastic component that takes into account the censoring that occurs as a result of governments lasting to the vicinity of the maximum constitutional interelection period, (2) a systematic component that precludes the possibility of negative duration predictions, and (3) a much more objective and parsimonious list of explanatory variables, the explanatory power of which would not be improved by including a list of indicator variables for individual countries., Government

In this paper we prove theoretically and demonstrate empirically that all existing measures of incumbency advantage in the congressional elections literature are biased or inconsistent. We then provide an unbiased estimator based on a very simple linear regression model. We apply this new method to congressional elections since 1900, providing the first evidence of a positive incumbency advantage in the first half of the century., Government