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Over the last 25 years, the Latin American beer sector has undergone important changes. The growth in beer production, consumption, and trade has been accompanied by a greater demand for malt and barley produced and traded in the region, displacing other traditional export countries of these inputs. Based on these facts, we studied the long-term relationship between this increase in beer production and the prices of imported inputs. In addition, we estimated the elasticities of demand of imported inputs of the main Latin American brewing countries. This allows us to infer about Latin America's competitive position as a supplier of its own beer inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Management & Agribusiness / Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis is the property of IPB University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Purpose: A better understanding of the determinants of demand through accurate estimates of the elasticity of import demand can help policymakers and exporters improve their market access and competitiveness. This study analyzed the EU's demand for imported potato from major suppliers between 1994 and 2018, with the aim to evaluate the competitiveness of Egyptian potato. Design/methodology/approach: This study adopted an import-differentiated framework to investigate demand relationships among the major potato suppliers to the EU's. To evaluate the competitiveness of Egyptian potato on the EU market, expenditure and price demand elasticities for various suppliers were calculated and compared. Findings: The empirical results indicated that as income allocation of fresh potatoes increases, the investigated EU markets import more potatoes from other suppliers compared to imports from Egypt. The results show that EU importers may switch to potato imports from other suppliers as the import price of Egyptian potatoes increases, which enter the EU markets before domestically produced potatoes are harvested. Research limitations/implications: Due to data unavailability, the present study relied on yearly data on quantities and prices of EU potato imports. A higher frequency of observations should allow for considering seasonal effects, and thereby providing a more transparent picture of market dynamics and demand behavior of EU countries with respect to potato import from various sources of origin. Originality/value: The study used a system-wide and source differentiated approach to analyze import demand. In particular, the empirical approach allowed for comparing different demand models (AIDS, Rotterdam, NBR and CBS) to filter out the superior and most suitable model for that data because the suitability and performance of a demand model depends rather on data than on universal criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: After the trade liberation, Bangladesh has faced the crisis of trade imbalance. Therefore, trade liberation is considered as the driving force behind the crisis. To investigate this historical allegation, this study aims at analysing the factors that determined the post trade liberalisation aggregate import demand function of Bangladesh. Design/Methodology/Approach: Based on quarterly data from trade liberalisation period to reaching the economic stability period, 1992Q1 - 2007Q4, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration and an error correction model (ECM) have been utilised to estimate the impacts of natural calamity, gross domestic product, foreign exchange reserve, relative price and tariff on aggregate import demand of Bangladesh. Findings: Empirical results revealed that the natural calamity is identified to be nonresponsive to the nation's aggregate import demand both in the short and long run. This indicates that Bangladesh can meet the natural crisis related demand by herself without influencing its aggregate import demand. Results also revealed that the import volume of Bangladesh is cointegrated with relative import price, actual GDP and real foreign exchange reserve of the country. The import demand of the country can largely be described by its real GDP, while it is found inversely associated with relative price ratio in the long run. The long run association among import demand and tariff rate indicates that trade liberalisation has a significant positive impact on the country's aggregate import demand, as well as real foreign exchange reserve, as explained by the reduction in tariff rate. Research Implication: Developing countries like Bangladesh and the relevant business stakeholders would have considerable implications of such empirical findings with their trade policies, particularly how they should respond to unpredictable scenarios caused by the factors such as natural calamity, foreign exchange reserve, tariff, etc. Originality Value: The originality of the study lies in its uniqueness in using the historical data and factors that no studies have so far used in analysing the import demand function of Bangladesh. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate export and import demand elasticities of Greece between 1995 and 2018 by establishing cointegrating relationships between exports or imports, income and the real effective exchange rate. When accounting for structural breaks in the series, we observe that the long‐run income elasticities of exports and imports are elastic and decline throughout the sample period. The structural component of the Greek trade growth decreases across time. The cyclical counterpart rises and exhibits high variation. Changes in the real effective exchange rate have the opposite than predicted effects on trade in the postcrisis period for exports and throughout the sample for imports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decline in the production of basic grains in Mexico has intensified since the 1990s, with wheat (Triticum) being no exception. This reduction was covered by the growth of Mexican imports. The objective of this research was to analyze the import demand function for wheat from 1994, the time of the initiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model revealed the change in the conditional mean import demand using variations in its determinants, the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE for its Spanish acronym) and the real exchange rate, as proxy variables for income and relative prices, respectively. However, the conditional mean is insufficient in a context of increasing foreign purchases of wheat and outliers. Through a quantile extension of the ARDL model (with the acronym QARDL), we then found that the change in imports, and the relevance of the determinants, differed across import levels. In the short term, the upper quantiles of wheat imports responded mainly to their history and the exchange rate. Meanwhile, in the long term, the IGAE and the exchange rate influenced the lower quantiles of imports. We conclude that there was an asymmetric response in the conditional distribution of imports. In other words, this study provides evidence of short- and long-term location asymmetry in wheat imports under NAFTA. The research contributes to the econometric study of basic grain imports. For the first time, the QARDL model is used to understand the relationship between imports and their determinants, and the circumstances under which its use is recommended are indicated. Therefore, a new econometric method is used, avoiding the linearity of the ARDL model, and thus allowing a detailed and accurate estimation of the demand for imports. Consequently, the estimates and conclusions obtained will undoubtedly help economic agents to make more efficient decisions, from national and international investors to government agencies responsible for the promotion of Mexican agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dynamic AIDS model was employed to estimate the expenditure, own-price, and cross elasticity of five major import source countries for shrimp, salmon, albacore and tuna, crab, and cuttlefish in Japan. Our findings show that COVID-19 has had no significant impact on Japan's fishery imports in the short term. The expenditure elasticities of fishery imports in Japan are greater than 1 or close to 1, implying that consumers in Japan have a relatively high dependence on fishery imports. Specifically, the expenditure elasticities of shrimp and cuttlefish imports from Vietnam, albacore and tuna imports from Australia, and crab imports from Russia are close to 1, while their own-price elasticities are the least sensitive compared with other import source countries, suggesting a greater export potential in the Japanese market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the import behavior of major importers of corn over the period of 1996 to 2016. The article uses an upper-stage import demand equation for corn to estimate countries' elasticities of import demand with respect to income/GNP, the import price, exchange rate, domestic corn production, and animal inventories. The article also examines whether countries' corn import demand is sensitive to changes in income and the exchange rate during macroeconomic downturns, specifically when both nominal GNP falls and the currency depreciates. The results show greater import demand responsiveness in periods of macroeconomic stability, as opposed to downturns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study attempts to improve Malaysia's aggregate import demand functions by considering disaggregated imports using import data classified by broad economic categories (BEC). The results suggest that the deeper the country's involvement in international production sharing, the less essential relative prices will become. Economic growth driven by the electric industry might not harm the trade balance. However, an increase in domestically produced transport equipment might negatively affect the trade balance. Thus, developing and facilitating domestic production in the automobile industry is essential, and the government is advised to design policies to promote relevant industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Import demand elasticities are regularly used to compute trade restrictiveness indices, to transform estimated effects of trade policies into ad-valorem equivalents, or to judge on the prohibitive level of various tariff and non-tariff policy instruments. The fast rising number of negotiations of free trade agreements and the fact that non-tariff measures are at the core of these strongly motivates for an update of the import demand elasticity estimates provided by Kee, Nicita, and Olarreaga in 2008 which are based on trade data for the period 1988–2001. Following their GDP function approach, we present import demand elasticities for more than 150 countries and over 5000 products over the period 1996–2014. Countries exhibiting the highest average elasticities belong to the economically biggest countries in their respective regions, while countries with the lowest import demand elasticities are typically small island states. Import-weighted results suggest that especially countries rich in natural resources are facing an inelastic import demand, with the agri-food sector being more price-responsive than the manufacturing sector. Finally, import demand for intermediate goods seems to be more elastic than demand for products destined for final consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Roa Iktissadia Review is the property of Roa Iktissadia Review and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Introduction: The study examines the importance of intertemporal substitution in import demand considering the role of habit formation. A two-goods version of the permanent income model is used in which time-non-separability in consumers's preferences is assumed. The model is estimated using annual data for Pakistan at disaggregated level covering the period from 1977 to 2017. Objectives: The objective of the study is to estimate elasticities of substitution along with parameters of habit formation for consumption goods at a disaggregated level. Method: The study employs co-integration for the estimation of parameters of elasticities of substitution and generalized method of moments (GMM) for the estimation of the parameters of habit formation from Euler equations. Findings: The estimates of intertempral elasticity of substitution suggest that the nature of commodity group (necessity/luxury) plays an important role when consumers are making intertemporal choices. Moreover, the study finds that intratemporal elasticity of substitution is larger than intertempral elasticity of substitution in almost all cases in Pakistan, suggesting that imported and domestic goods are best described as substitutes in Edgeworth-Pareto sense. In addition, the inclusion of habit formation delivers results with plausible signs and the habit formation process seems significant for certain commodity groups including tea, beverages, tobacco products and drugs. Conclusion: The study concludes that there is a possibility of crowding out effect on domestic consumption and the depreciation of local currency may improve Pakistan's balance of trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Investigating the import of pharmaceutical products, as one of the essential goods of the country to improve health and medical conditions, is important in accelerating the economic growth and enhancing the welfare of the community. This paper aims to estimate the income and price elasticity of pharmaceutical import demand in Iran. Design/methodology/approach: In this research, the function of Iran's pharmaceutical import demand was estimated and calculated using the co-integration method and error correction techniques with the seasonal data of 2005–2016 to identify factors related to import, as well as relevant price, and income elasticity. Findings: The research results showed that the price elasticity of Iran's long-term pharmaceutical import demand was 0.04; that is, the rate of pharmaceutical import demanded by Iran was not sensitive to change in relative price. Additionally, the long-term income elasticity of Iran's pharmaceutical demand was 0.69, meaning that an increase in Iran's income did not have a highly positive impact on the volume of Iran's pharmaceutical import. Originality/value: Estimating the function of the demand for pharmaceutical import may pave the way to adopt appropriate economic policies. Furthermore, estimating this function and calculating income and price elasticity is a step toward minimizing government expenditures and can be a great contribution in designing trade policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Istanbul Journal of Economics / İstanbul Iktisat Dergisi is the property of Istanbul Journal of Economics / Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Strategy & Development Review is the property of Strategy & Development Review and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

As the leading import market for cotton, and leading export market for manufactured products like clothing and apparel, China provides the ideal case for examining how the COVID‐19 pandemic is affecting international cotton trade. The COVID‐19 outbreak has resulted in decreased global demand for products like clothing, directly affecting China's demand for cotton from exporting countries. In this study, we examined Chinese demand for imported cotton by product form (raw cotton and yarn) and by source (e.g., United States, India), as well as the dynamic price relationships across countries. Using year‐to‐date trade, demand estimates, and price forecasts, we assessed the impact of COVID‐19 on Chinese imports and the countries supplying this market. Depending on the projections, the most severe impacts of COVID‐19 on Chinese cotton imports are either behind us, or the latter half of 2020 could potentially be just as bad as the early part of the year. The outcome depends on the impact of manufactured‐product prices on imports; the effects of which are large but insignificant. As a consequence, even when imports from certain countries are projected to significantly decline, projection intervals suggest the possibility of a negligible decline or even a positive outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to explore the short-term dynamics of price and income import demand elasticities in the case of Hungary. Research data encompass the time period from 1996Q1 to 2018Q3. Using a relatively novel approach of T.V.P. (time-varying parameters) this paper gives further insight into the short-term dynamics of Hungarian imports. Income import demand elasticity was found to be significant and mostly positive while price effect was time-dependent and bidirectional rendering itself non-significant in the final state. Furthermore, Hungary's accession to European Union was not significantly influencing import demand patterns with other European Union members. These findings add new information to the body of knowledge regarding import trade elasticities of transition countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, we analyse EU soybean and maize imports using a demand system borrowed from the differential approach to firm theory. Alongside providing own-price and cross-price (i. e. cross-country) elasticities for these two products, we test whether source-specific characteristics exert any influence on complementarity and substitution patterns between international exporters. Specifically, we look at country differences stemming from supply chain efficiency and the asynchronous approval of Genetically Modified (GM) varieties. We do so by introducing two measurements for such features into a linear demand model specified by Laitinen and Theil (1978). Estimation results suggest that the EU import structure is not affected by differences in supply chain efficiency between overseas suppliers while, depending on the product, asynchronous approval does seem to have an influence. We find that imports of maize are more sensitive than those of soybeans to differences in approval statuses between international exporters and the EU. Since soybean availability is a limiting factor for the EU feed industry, avoiding stock shortages may be a priority for European importers, hence the weaker effect of asynchronous approval. On the other hand, the substantial EU self-sufficiency for maize places more emphasis on product characteristics and prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to examine price and income elasticity of import demand in Czech Republic and Hungary while allowing parameters of import demand to vary over time. Research sample consists of quarterly time series data the first quarter of 1996 to the third quarter of 2018. The results were obtained following state space model with time-varying parameters approach. The results revealed import demand elastic to changes in income in both countries while the elasticity was found to be higher in Hungary comparing to Czech Republic. Elasticity of import demand to changes relative prices were found in Hungary while in case of Czech Republic the price elasticity estimates indicated convergence of prices. Based on the empirical results from this research, the paper brings country-specific policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a review of the theoretical and empirical literature on the key determinants of import demand in developing and developed countries. On the whole, the findings from the studies reviewed in this paper show that the determinants of import demand differ from country to country and over time, and depend on the proxies used to measure import demand. Moreover, the findings confirmed that the key drivers of import demand depend on whether the income variable is used as a single variable or is disaggregated into different components. In general, the majority of the studies found that income and relative import price are the key determinants of import demand – although the nature of the impact of these factors differs from country to country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impact of the exchange rate on trade flows by using a two-stage demand model. The elasticity of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) derived from the model is determined by demand elasticity, excess supply elasticity, elasticity of substitution, and market share. The empirical case is the US salmon import market. For the primary export countries, the elasticity of ERPT ranges between 0.37 and 0.62 in the long run. Although the empirical results suggest a partial ERPT in this market, there is no evidence of an asymmetric ERPT, as revealed by the simulated ERPT elasticities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aggregate export supply function for US corn and bilateral import functions for US corn by Mexico, Japan, China, South Korea, and the EU are estimated using ARDL estimation techniques. The findings of the study show that export price, technology, and lagged exports impact positively on US corn exports, while real effective exchange rates and ethanol production negatively impact US corn export. In addition, the current import price had a negative effect on Mexico, China, and the EU demand for US corn. However, for Japan and South Korea, it is the previous price that negatively affects corn import. More so, livestock production, NAFTA and WTO involvement positively affected corn import by all importing countries. Also, the Chinese population positively impacted corn import from the US. GDP in Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and the EU had a positive effect on corn imports, while China's GDP impacted negatively on corn imports. More so, the US has a more price elastic supply of corn. Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and the EU have price inelastic demand for US corn, while China has price elastic demand suggesting China is very price sensitive. The results of this study have important implications for global corn trade and the US economy. The results suggest that increases in livestock production in all importing countries could lead to a significant increase in demand for U.S. corn. Also, policies that enhance NAFTA and WTO could lead to a dramatic increase in demand for U.S. corn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The notion of the determinants of import demand has become a major policy issue in most countries due to the persistent trade deficits being experienced and their effects on the economy. Against this backdrop, this study empirically examined the factors determining import demand in Zimbabwe using a gravity model. Forty trading partners for Zimbabwe and data for the period 2004 to 2017 were employed. The model was estimated using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) with and without fixed effects and the findings were that gross domestic product and trade openness for Zimbabwe and her trading partners had a positive impact on import demand. Furthermore, inflation and population for Zimbabwe as well as its trading partners' and bilateral distance were found to be negatively related to import demand. More so, the study found out that dollarization has managed to increase import demand. Based on these findings, policies directed at reducing import demand should target trade openness, population and inflation level. The findings also imply that de-dollarization is an effective strategy to reduce import demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fundamental objective of this study is to estimate for basic trade elasticity and assess the impact of trade liberalization on Pakistan's import demand in bilateral case for a sample of selected countries. In sample, countries are selected from both the developed and developing world on account of their greater share in Pakistan's total imports. The method of autoregressive distributed lag model with a new strategy is performed using annual data for the time period of 1982-2016. Results indicate that co-integration exist in all bilateral cases. The domestic income is statistically significant determinants both in short and long run with expected positive signs and their estimates are highly elastic. The estimates of income coefficient range from 1.54 to 7.42 which indicate that as the economy grows, Pakistan, imports from trading partners also surge with greater velocity. The price is according to the expected signs i.e. negative and insignificant in most cases, except in the case for Japan and Indonesia where it is significant but inelastic i.e. the coefficient value is looking less than 0.6 in all cases. In nutshell the trade liberalization impact is looking positive and statistically significant in many country cases. However, these effects are different for each era of trade liberalization and vary from country to country level. This is indeed the case, where different import policies need to implement rather than a single trade policy to supervise excessive imports of the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluate the impact of the US-China trade war using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade. We conduct ex ante simulation analysis exploring three scenarios to understand how the trade war affects import tariffs, investment, and productivity. The escalation of the trade war reduces gross domestic product (GDP) in China and the USA by -1.41% and -1.35%, respectively. The trade war reduces nearly all sectoral imports and outputs in both countries. To reflect the important role of global value chains (GVCs), we modify the dynamic CGE model with agent-specific import demands, and we explore the difference between the results for the two models relating to the trade war impacts on GDP and bilateral trade. When GVCs are accounted for, the negative impacts on bilateral trade are more widespread across countries, and world GDP in the modified model is reduced by -$US450 billion. These results suggest that the GVCs play substantial role in determining trade responses at the disaggregated level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of International Economics / Economia Internazionale is the property of Camera di Commercio di Genova and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Foreign trade elasticities are considered to be crucial for both economic forecasting and international policy analysis. The value of trade elasticities has remained the subject of diverse opinion in most international economic policy debates. Therefore, this paper uses import substitution model framework to estimate the price and income elasticities of imports demand on agricultural products in Iraq for the period 1980 - 2018. We use Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) to study the long run relationship between variables of the study. The results of the unit root test based on ADF and PP provide justification for the use of ARDL bound test. The co-integration results show that there is a long run relationship between import demand of agricultural products and the chosen explanatory variables, thus all the variables move together in the long run. The estimated long run coefficients show that the price and income elasticities of import demand of agricultural products in Iraq were about 0.01 and 0.45 respectively during the period covered. This implies that the long run import demand of agricultural products in Iraq has been price-and income-inelastic since the sizes of the coefficients of real GDP and relative agricultural prices were less than unity and among the explanatory variables studied, real GDP was the main determinant of import demand of agricultural products in Iraq. Furthermore, the long run coefficient of domestic prices which is also regarded as the cross price elasticity of import demand of agricultural products with respect to local products was about 0.046 and statistically insignificant, thus there is evidence of imperfect substitution between import agricultural products and domestically products. The results from the short run of the model suggest that about 52% of the disequilibrium between the long run and short run import demand on agricultural products is corrected each year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of aggregate and dis-aggregated import demand for Ghana for the period from 1985 to 2015. Design/methodology/approach: The study employed the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach. Findings: The long-run finding show that aggregate import demand (AIMD) is positively determined by exports of goods and services and consumer spending, but negatively determined by foreign exchange reserves. It is found that consumer spending is the key positive determinant of the import demand of consumer goods, while foreign exchange reserves, trade liberalisation policy and relative import price are negative determinants. It is found that import demand of intermediate goods is positively determined by consumer spending, government spending and investment spending. The long-run findings further confirm that import demand of capital goods is negatively determined by relative import price. In the short run, the findings suggest that AIMD is positively affected by exports of goods and services, investment spending and consumer spending, but negatively affected by foreign exchange reserves. Import demand of consumer goods is positively influenced by consumer spending, but negatively determined by relative import price. Finally, import demand for intermediate goods is found to be positively determined by investment spending and government spending, while import demand for capital goods is positively associated with exports of goods and services and trade liberalisation policy in the previous period. Originality/value: A number of studies have looked at the determinants of import demand, focussing on the aggregated import demand. This study adds the component of dis-aggregated import demand, as it assist in dealing with the issues of bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to estimate the import demand function for halal meat in member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and to suggest some policy recommendations for OIC members that can enhance intra-OIC halal meat trade. Design/methodology/approach: By using an augmented gravity model, this study empirically estimates the major determinants of halal meat import demand in OIC member countries. Moreover, a major determinant is the difference in Islamic jurisprudence (fiqh). Findings: The results of this study show that the variation in Islamic jurisprudence is one of the primary determinants of intra-regional trade of halal meat import demand in OIC member countries. Research limitations/implications: Although trade flows are set up in several years and lag variables are well capable to examine trade flows, this study only includes the static nature of halal meat trade flows toward selected top 20 OIC member countries. Practical implications: This study suggests that developing a common halal meat market and one halal certification body under the OIC can enhance intra-OIC halal meat trade, this may be a challenge given the five diverse interpretations of halal meat within Islamic jurisprudence among OIC member countries. Originality/value: This paper identifies the role of Islamic jurisprudence (fiqh) in determining the import demand of halal meat in OIC countries, which has not been addressed in empirical literature. It also provides some policy implications to ameliorate the declining trend of intra-OIC trade flows of halal meat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose This paper aims to empirically examine the trade creation and diversion impacts on merchandise imports of Pakistan under the Pakistan–China Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The analysis of Pakistan’s preferential treatment with its largest trade partner as well as the most substantial exporter of the world will help to shape trade policy, open windows for academic research and also gives an immense contribution in literature.Design/methodology/approach A disaggregated panel data on the imports of Pakistan from China and other WTO member countries and tariff concessions at Harmonized System (HS) two-digit level used for the agreement period of 2006-2012. The empirical analysis takes care of bias through robust and panel-corrected standard errors with time, industry-specific effects and controlling for multilateral trade resistance.Findings Evidence found in support of trade creation under the Pakistan–China FTA. It means overall this agreement increased the welfare of Pakistani consumers.Practical implications Findings are in favour of negotiations and signing for the next round of this agreement and with other major trade partners like the US and Saudi Arabia.Originality/value It is worth investigating empirically the impact of preferential trade liberalization between Pakistan – a developing country – and China – the largest importer of the world – explicitly, in the form of trade creation or diversion. The empirical assessment of this FTA signed with the world’s largest exporter will not only contribute immensely to the literature but also help in trade policy formulation and open windows for academic research. Another unique aspect of this study is the use of disaggregated data consisting of all goods imports along with tariff concessions at two-digit Harmonized System (HS) code. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effect of the South Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS-FTA) on U.S. competition with other suppliers for the import/export of orange juice. We use monthly trade data for 2007-2015 to estimate the import demand from the United States, Brazil, Israel, and the rest of the world. Our results suggest that U.S. suppliers have surpassed Brazil and dominate the market. Moreover, we show that thanks to the KORUS-FTA, U.S. suppliers have gained significant welfare and trade value, which is particularly important for industries suffering from a shrinking domestic market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For a large number of countries, we augment the specification of import demand in NiGEM by accounting for different import contents of individual expenditure components. Three examples illustrate that these changes have important implications for model outcomes. In the case of the recently enacted US tax reform and in a 'hard landing' scenario for China, spillovers become more pronounced while the domestic effects turn out more muted than in the default specification. The reverse is true for the ramifications of a public investment push in Germany. Hence, we believe that our add-on to NiGEM can be a useful tool for robustness exercises, in particular for spillover studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid growth of China's economy has increased China's demand for imports required to meet the increased demand for raw materials in its industries. In 2006, China became the largest export destination for South Africa. This paper seeks to examine the relationship between China's economic growth and South Africa's exports to China. The paper aims to find out whether there is any significant relationship between China's economic growth and South Africa's exports to China. Using an import demand function for China, we employ an ARDL framework to analyze the research problem based on quarterly data covering the period 1992 to 2015. We find no evidence that there is a significant relationship between China's economic growth and South Africa's exports to China. However, the results do show that there is a positive long-run relationship between South Africa's exports to China and the price of South Africa's exports. The positive coefficient of South Africa's export prices indicates lack of price sensitivity in terms of South Africa's exports to China. Based on the results, we recommend that South Africa should find ways to enable its exports sector to benefit more from the high economic growth in China. Among other ways, this could be achieved through negotiating a free trade agreement (FTA) between South Africa and China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the behaviour of Indian aggregate imports during the period 1980-81 to 2013-14. The stability of aggregate import demand function is examined using five types of cointegration tests including the ARDL bounds test. In order to estimate the long-run elasticities, we have applied three alternative fully efficient cointegrating regressions, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and Johansen maximum likelihood method. Our results reveal cointegration relationship between import demand, relative prices of import, domestic activity and foreign exchange reserves. Results evince that, in the long-run, the response of import demand to relative import prices is negative and less than unity, whereas it's response to domestic activity/income is positive and more than unity. The foreign exchange reserve has a positive effect on imports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Southern Agriculture is the property of Journal of Southern Agriculture and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

On the basis of data from 2000 to 2010, we investigated the separate effects of the uptake of forest certification and the usage of recycled paper on imports of paper and paperboard into Germany and the United States. Using panel data methods and based on a conventional Armington trade model, we find that the effects of two main forest certification schemes—the Programme for Endorsement of Forest Certification (PEFC) and the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC)—differ between markets. In Germany, the PEFC was negatively related to imports. In the United States, imports were preferred from PEFC-dominated countries. The recycled paper utilization rate interacted negatively with imports, irrespective of import country. We also found that price and income elasticities of demand for both countries were within ranges found by other authors: the long-term relative price elasticity of total import demand ranged from ‐0.70 to ‐0.78 for Germany and from ‐0.78 to ‐0.89 for the United States. The elasticity of demand for economic activity was also smaller (between 0.74 and 0.87) for Germany than for the United States (between 0.87 and 0.97). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article uses annual data to investigate the palm oil import demand in selected Asian countries (India, China, Japan, Bangladesh, Korea, and Pakistan) through using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique. The findings of the study show that the palm oil and substitute oils prices and the national income of the importing countries are significant determinants of palm oil demand across the six models. Other factors such as biofuel mandate, trade policies, and exchange rate also proved to be important factors affecting import demand for palm oil in some of these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Recent years have witnessed closer diplomatic relations between Egypt and Russia, which have led to significant growth in the countries' bilateral agricultural trade. As a world-leading producer and exporter of oranges, these developments represent an opportunity for Egypt to promote its orange exports to Russia. Another emerging opportunity for Egypt to increase its share in the Russian market for imported oranges has been provided by import embargos imposed by Russia in recent years on agricultural and food commodities from several countries, creating a supply gap of around 25 % in the Russian orange market. To assess the competitiveness of Egyptian oranges and explore the potential export opportunities presented by the Russian market, this paper uses a Rotterdam import allocation model to analyse demand relationships among major orange suppliers to Russia during the period 1996-2014. The results show that in comparison with other orange suppliers, Egypt enjoys a strong comparative advantage in the export of oranges to Russia. The econometric results suggest that both Morocco and Egypt would benefit the most if Russia were to allocate a larger budget to the import of oranges. The expenditure elasticity estimates indicate that an increase in Russia's demand for imported oranges would lead to increases in the quantity of Egypt's orange exports, as well as in its share of the Russian orange market. Furthermore, cross-price elasticity estimates reveal that Egyptian oranges are substitutes for Turkish and South African oranges, implying that Russia has a tendency to switch to these two suppliers when Egyptian oranges become relatively expensive. In light of these results, the adoption of strategies to produce oranges sustainably and cost-effectively, upgrade the orange value chain, acquire processing technologies and enhance the technical and organisational capacity of farmers and exporters could be useful means for promoting exports and boosting the competitiveness of Egyptian oranges on the Russian market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the effect of price risk on the US importers’ optimal allocation of agriculture imports between the major supplier, China, and other competing countries. We first modify a demand system to account for the impacts of own-price risk and cross-price risk, and then apply the model to 16 agricultural and fisheries commodities exported to the US. The estimation results show that importers are sensitive to price risks of 14 Chinese commodities. Comparisons between price risk–trade relations of agricultural and fisheries products and between trade effects of cross-price risk on Chinese goods and substitutes provide strong evidence for explaining the observed trade patterns. Our study highlights the importance of price stability in promoting international trade, especially from developing countries to developed countries. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

‘This study measured the effectiveness of US dairy export promotion programmes on increasing foreign demand and enhancing producers’ revenues. An import demand equation based on panel data was used to test whether export promotion has a positive and significant impact on US dairy exports. The effects of various promotion scenarios on the dairy market were then simulated, and benefit–cost ratios (BCRs) for these programmes were estimated. There were three key findings. First, the combined effort of public and private dairy export promotion expenditures had a positive and statistically significant impact on demand for US dairy products in the world market. The findings indicated that export promotion stimulated total dairy exports by 4.14 billion pounds, on average, per year, which represented 55.8% of total exports. Second, US dairy export promotion has been highly profitable for the nation’s dairy farmers. The calculated BCRs, based on assumed elasticity of supply, ranged from a low of 8.54 for the most elastic assumption to a high of 30.12. Third, from an optimality standpoint, dairy farmers are underinvesting in export promotion. The marginal BCRs ranged from a low of 3.79 to a high of 15.22, which means that, at the margin, increasing export promotion expenditures would be profitable for dairy farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By estimating the demand for imported wine in China, this study investigates Chinese consumer choices in terms of wines and countries of origin, as well as the competition among suppliers. The Restricted Source Differentiated Almost Ideal Demand System (RSDAIDS) model is applied. Three goods (still bottled, bulk and sparkling wines) imported from the main exporting countries (France, Italy, Australia and Chile) and from the rest of the world are analysed. The model also includes socio-economic variables and seasonality. The results show that price sensitivities are different: inelasticity for sparkling wines, elasticity for bulk wines and different degrees of responsiveness for still bottled wines. France plays the role of market leader, and competitive interdependence emerges among its followers. The estimation of import expenditure is characterised by the widening of the wine portfolio. The minor followers generate high competitive dynamism. Relationships of substitutability or complementarity between wines and sources emerge. Finally, research perspectives of wine marketing are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this study, we are concern with incorporating risk factors into the Almost Ideal Demand System model. In the modified model, the risk factors affect trade response to price changes (the indirect effect) and the reallocation of the import expenditure (the direct effect). This specification can be used to explain why the trade effect of risk factors is ambiguous regarding the magnitude and sign. The empirical application to the US whitefish import market reveals the proportionality between the risk and the price effects and further implies a general positive direct effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Frequently in applied work, researchers need to utilize values for price elasticities of import demand and export supply. Unfortunately, econometric estimates of these elasticities are limited, perhaps due to the difficulties inherent in estimating them. This paper uses a methodology for estimating price elasticities of import demand and export supply for 87 countries without using econometrics directly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the effects of cultural inflow on import demand. More specifically, this research explored whether foreign cultural products can cause halo effects on Japanese import of consumer products. Our findings suggest the presence of positive cultural halo effects on the Japanese import market for consumer products. Specifically, import of cultural products has significant positive effects on certain types of consumer products of the same country of origin and negative effects on products of different origin. Additionally, the effects of cultural inflow on import demand differ depending on the type of consumer products. These findings have important implications for countries that export consumer and cultural products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides an in-depth analysis of the determinants of import demand in China through a multilevel approach. Using disaggregated data over 1996–2008 and a dynamic panel model, we find that the Chinese import market is predominantly characterized by quality competition. However, the nature of the competition varies across different industries. In line with theory, quality plays an important role in industries that are characterized by the potential for quality improvement and product differentiation, whereas price is key in industries in which quality and product differences are rather small. Moreover, private consumption expenditure is more influential than other categories of expenditures. Additionally, variables that can influence the relative price of import products, such as the exchange rate, tariffs and the domestic price index, also have an impact on import demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Citrus fruits make up 1/5 of all fresh fruit consumed in the United States. Given the increasing importance of imported citrus in the diet of American consumers, it is perhaps surprising that no import demand analysis of U.S. citrus has been conducted. Using quarterly U.S. import data for 6 citrus commodities, we employed a demand systems model and evaluated aspects of seasonality. The results suggest wide variations in price responses to different types of imported citrus. The average amplitude and phase shift suggest that all citrus fruits exhibit some seasonality in their imports, likely a result of peak harvesting schedules of exporters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, I present a theoretical framework and derive an empirical model that relates import price risk to the allocation of an import across exporting sources (source diversification). A differential approach to expected utility theory and firm demand is used to derive a model comparable to more popular demand systems such as the Rotterdam and AIDS models. The model is used in estimating carnation demand in the United Kingdom. Results show that while total carnation imports, expected prices and seasonality are important determinants of import demand by source, there is significant information loss when price risk is not considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper adopts the bounds testing approach to test for the validity of the cointegration or stationarity restriction embodied in five import demand model specifications for CIBS during the period 1970-2007. It identifies long-run relationships in a subset of the five models for each CIBS countries. We find that long-run income elasticities are much higher compared to earlier studies and are higher than the short-run counterparts for CIBS. In addition, contrary to the traditional wisdom, price elasticities are not significantly negative for these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]