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Agricultural sustainability faces challenges in the changing climate, particularly for rain-fed systems like those in Ethiopia. This study examines the combined impacts of climate change and soil acidity on future crop potential, focusing on Ethiopia as a case study. The EcoCrop crop suitability model was parameterized and run for four key food crops in Ethiopia (teff, maize, barley and common wheat), under current and mid-century climate conditions. To assess the impacts of soil acidification on crop suitability, a simulation study was conducted by lowering the soil pH values by 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 and re-running the suitability model, comparing the changes in the area suitable for each crop. Our evaluation of the model, by comparing the modeled suitable areas with reference data, indicated that there was a good fit for all the four crops. Using default soil pH values, we project that there will be no significant changes in the suitability of maize, barley and wheat and an increase in the suitability of teff by the mid-century, as influenced by projected increases in rainfall in the country. Our results demonstrate a direct relationship between the lowering of soil pH and increasing losses in the area suitable for all crops, but especially for teff, barley and wheat. We conclude that soil acidification can have a strong impact on crop suitability in Ethiopia under climate change, and precautionary measures to avoid soil acidification should be a key element in the design of climate change adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Climate change is one of the most important problems that needs to be dealt with in Türkiye and worldwide. One of the sectors that will be most affected by climate change is the agriculture sector. For this reason, it is very important to adapt to changing climatic conditions, take the necessary precautions, and ensure sustainability in the agricultural sector today. The land suitability for spinach (Spinacia oleracea L.) cultivation, a vegetable that is rich in nutrients, has never been investigated in Türkiye. Therefore, it is important to investigate the suitability of spinach cultivation areas in Türkiye in the case of possible climatic changes in future years. The most important original value of this research is that three separate climate change prediction models were used, as opposed to using only a single climate change prediction model, to determine the land suitability for spinach cultivation. The aim of this study is to determine the land suitability for spinach in line with possible climate change prediction models and scenarios in Türkiye and its evaluation by comparing it with the current model. To achieve this goal, HADGEM2_ES, CNRM_CM5, and MPI_ESM_LR climate models and RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used, and land suitability was determined and evaluated with the help of Ecocrop integrated into DIVA-GIS for spinach in Türkiye currently and in the 2050s. The results found that there will be decreases in suitable, very suitable, and excellent areas for spinach cultivation and increases in not-suited, very marginal, and marginal areas. Considering the possible temperature and precipitation changes, it has been observed that the areas in which spinach can be grown in Türkiye in the 2050s will be negatively affected by climate change due to the increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation in general, and solutions are proposed in this study to ensure sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cultivation of tree crops such as coconut, oil palm and rubber are an important source of income in Southeast Asia, both for the national economies and for the local population. Climate change has the potential to drastically affect the suitability for growing these crops, but until now the impacts thereof on existing production areas have not been considered. This study combines climate change projections with data on crop cultivation to analyze how suitability for coconut, oil palm and rubber will change under different scenarios in Southeast Asia. We find that projected increases in total precipitation and longer dry periods in the insular part of Southeast Asia will result in 127,000 ha of current coconut and 1.17 Mha of current oil palm area will no longer be highly suitable under the most severe climate scenario. Conversely, increasing temperature in the mainland part of the region will cause 97,000 ha of current rubber cultivation area to become highly suitable. Increasing temperatures will also allow for potential expansion of rubber and coconut cultivation in the northern mainland part of the region, while the potential highly suitable area for oil palm cultivation will decrease. These changes in crop suitability may result in impacts on local farmers, including fall in yields and displacement of cultivation areas. This, in turn, may add pressure to biodiversity conservation in the region since areas that become highly suitable are disproportionally located within Key Biodiversity Areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy crop cultivation is considered the main factor in the rapid increase in the share of biomass energy in the future global energy supply. However, the most critical issue for the cultivation of energy crops will be establishing sustainable energy cropping systems and protecting agricultural areas devoted to food and feed crops. Therefore, the present study aims to identify key criteria for energy crop cultivation areas and to develop a Geographic information systems (GISs)- and multi-criteria evaluation model (MCE)-based methodology. This study employs a GIS-based MCE technique, including fuzzy standardization, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and weighted overlay for analyzing land suitability to switchgrass cultivation for the case study in İzmir-Turkey. The criteria identified in this study include climatic parameters, soil characteristics, topography, and land restrictions for land-use compatibility. Climate data were employed by TerrSet's Crop Climate Suitability Model to determine the climatic suitability of switchgrass in the city. Subsequently, an assessment model of land suitability for switchgrass cultivation was developed by integrating AHP in the ArcGIS environment. Here, the highest specific weight was attained for climatic suitability (0.22), and the lowest was found for elevation (0.094). Significantly, 69.4% (40,725 ha) of the potential cultivation area was moderately suitable and higher, and 30.5% (17,896 ha) was low suitable for switchgrass cultivation. Therefore, it was concluded that the applied methodology could be a practical approach for sustainable biofuels production and environmental protection and can be employed for different energy crops and regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fritillaria imperialis is a bulbous plant that has increased commercial value and contributes to rural development in Turkey. It is widely utilized in traditional medicine and pharmacy, and has great potential for use in modern pharmaceuticals in the future. As the effects of climate change on this plant have not been documented, this study aimed to understand how climate change might affect F. imperialis. The methodology of the study was divided into three steps: (i) database development, including the current distribution zones of F. imperialis and climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation data; (ii) determination of the plant's temperature and precipitation requirements; and (iii) Ecocrop's plant climate suitability modeling (PCSM). As a result of the study, it was determined that climatic suitability would decrease below 20% in the plant's current distribution area between 2,000 m and 3,000 m altitude. For the zones between 500-1,000 m altitude, the climatic suitability will be as high as 100%. Although there are zones where climatic suitability will increase by 2070, the general trend shows that suitability will decrease. This change in the plant ecosystem is explained by the decreased winter precipitation and snowfall but increased temperature and evaporation at higher altitudes. Fritillaria imperialis is expected to shift its geographic distribution to lower altitudes because of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Andean-Amazon foothills region, shaped by Andean moist forests and Amazon forests in southwestern Colombia, Napo province in Ecuador, and Ucayali Province and Napo Basin in Peru, provides local and global ecosystem services as food, water, world climate regulation, water purification, and carbon absorption. However, it faces major problems of land-use change that are exacerbated by climate change that affects these ecosystem services. For instance, conventional agriculture contribute to deforestation, soil degradation, and biodiversity loss, which might be further aggravated by climate change–induced droughts, thus reducing staple crop production and, consequently, food security. Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz), maize (Zea mays L.), and plantain (Musa paradisiaca L.) are major staple crops in the region. They play a key role for food security and local farmers' income but are highly exposed to climate risks. This article aims to quantify the level of exposure to climate change (measured as climatic suitability) of these crops in the Andean-Amazon foothills by using the EcoCrop model by the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios. EcoCrop results showed that, whereas cassava will not lose climatic suitability, maize will lose more than half of its current suitable area, and plantain will gain and lose area, which would affect local food security. Globally, these results are important in highlighting adaptive and cost-effective strategies in agriculture and suggest that agricultural crop diversification may improve resilience by promoting the use of local crops varieties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) cultivation delivers income to farmers and nutrition to consumers in sub-Saharan Africa. With a growing population and land scarcity, there will be greater pressure to intensify common bean and other crops in the region. However, high temperatures and increased drought may reduce common bean yields in Africa. Climate change impacts on climbing beans are not yet clear. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the expected impact of climate change on suitability for climbing bean cultivation. The study identifies areas suitable to cultivate climbing beans in sub-Saharan Africa, taking into account the present climate as well as the predicted future climate. The analysis compares and evaluates the performance of two ecological niche models—Ecocrop and MaxEnt—under future climatic conditions, according to global circulation models of the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. The Ecocrop model results showed a wide common bean distribution in comparison with those of MaxEnt, which showed a better approximation to the current distribution of climbing beans. The MaxEnt model performed well as judged by validation statistics and comparison with climbing bean production data. Overall, the models project climate change to decrease the suitability of climbing beans in Africa. The results suggest that rising temperatures and variable rainfall will most severely affect bean production in countries of southern Africa such as Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Mozambique. In other parts of the tropics, climbing bean cultivation may suffer rising temperatures and more variable rainfall at higher latitudes, as opposed to areas near the equator. The study suggests where agricultural specialists can promote climbing beans in Africa and other regions of the world, where they are highly suitable and not yet widely cultivated. Researchers can improve studies such as this one for beans and other crops by developing more detailed calibration and validation data sets for modeling efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impacts of climate change on cassava production in Africa, and questions whether cassava can play an important role in climate change adaptation. First, we examine the impacts that climate change will likely have on cassava itself, and on other important staple food crops for Africa including maize, millets, sorghum, banana, and beans based on projections to 2030. Results indicate that cassava is actually positively impacted in many areas of Africa, with −3.7% to +17.5% changes in climate suitability across the continent. Conversely, for other major food staples, we found that they are all projected to experience negative impacts, with the greatest impacts for beans (−16% ± 8.8), potato (−14.7 ± 8.2), banana (−2.5% ± 4.9), and sorghum (−2.66% ± 6.45). We then examined the likely challenges that cassava will face from pests and diseases through the use of ecological niche modeling for cassava mosaic disease, whitefly, brown streak disease and cassava mealybug. The findings show that the geographic distribution of these pests and diseases are projected to change, with both new areas opening up and areas where the pests and diseases are likely to leave or reduce in pressure. We finish the paper by looking at the abiotic traits of priority for crop adaptation for a 2030 world, showing that greater drought tolerance could bring some benefits in all areas of Africa, and that cold tolerance in Southern Africa will continue to be a constraint for cassava despite a warmer 2030 world, hence breeding needs to keep a focus on this trait. Importantly, heat tolerance was not found to be a major priority for crop improvement in cassava in the whole of Africa, but only in localized pockets of West Africa and the Sahel. The paper concludes that cassava is potentially highly resilient to future climatic changes and could provide Africa with options for adaptation whilst other major food staples face challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is vital for farmers to know if their land is suitable for the crops that they plan to grow. An increasing number of studies have used machine learning models based on land use data as an efficient means for mapping land suitability. This approach relies on the assumption that farmers grow their crops in the best-suited areas, but no studies have systematically tested this assumption. We aimed to test the assumption for specialty crops in Denmark. First, we mapped suitability for 41 specialty crops using machine learning. Then, we compared the predicted land suitabilities with the mechanistic model ECOCROP (Ecological Crop Requirements). The results showed that there was little agreement between the suitabilities based on machine learning and ECOCROP. Therefore, we argue that the methods represent different phenomena, which we label as socioeconomic suitability and ecological suitability, respectively. In most cases, machine learning predicts socioeconomic suitability, but the ambiguity of the term land suitability can lead to misinterpretation. Therefore, we highlight the need for increasing awareness of this distinction as a way forward for agricultural land suitability assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The changing climate is posing significant threats to agriculture, the most vulnerable sector, and the main source of livelihood in West Africa. This study assesses the impact of the climate-departure on the crop suitability and planting month over West Africa. We used 10 CMIP5 Global climate models bias-corrected simulations downscaled by the CORDEX regional climate model, RCA4 to drive the crop suitability model, Ecocrop. We applied the concept of the crop-climate departure (CCD) to evaluate future changes in the crop suitability and planting month for five crop types, cereals, legumes, fruits, root and tuber and horticulture over the historical and future months. Our result shows a reduction (negative linear correlation) and an expansion (positive linear correlation) in the suitable area and crop suitability index value in the Guinea-Savanna and Sahel (southern Sahel) zone, respectively. The horticulture crop was the most negatively affected with a decrease in the suitable area while cereals and legumes benefited from the expansion in suitable areas into the Sahel zone. In general, CCD would likely lead to a delay in the planting season by 2–4 months except for the orange and early planting dates by about 2–3 months for cassava. No projected changes in the planting month are observed for the plantain and pineapple which are annual crops. The study is relevant for a short and long-term adaptation option and planning for future changes in the crop suitability and planting month to improve food security in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The future climate is projected to change rapidly with potentially severe consequences for global food security. This study aims to improve the understanding of future changes in the suitability of crop growth conditions. It proposes a definition of crop realization, of the climate departure from recent historical variability, or crop–climate departure. Four statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Global Climate Models (GCMs): CCCMA, CNRM5, NOAA-GFDL, and MIROC5 performed simulations for the period 1960–2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 scenario to compute 20 year moving averages at 5-year increments. These were used to drive a crop suitability model, Ecocrop, for eight different crops across the three Food and Agriculture Organizations (FAO) AgroEcological Zones (AEZs) of West Africa (Guinea, Sahel, and Savanna). Simulations using historical climate data found that all crops except maize had a suitability index value (SIV) ≥0.50 outside the Sahel region, equivalent to conditions being suitable or strongly suitable. Simulations of future climate reveal that warming is projected to constrain crop growth suitability for cassava and pineapple in the Guinea zone. A potential for the northward expansion of maize is projected by the end of the century, suggesting a future opportunity for its growth in the southern Sahel zone. Crop growth conditions for mango and pearl millet remain suitable across all three AEZs. In general, crops in the Savanna AEZ are the most sensitive to the projected changes in climate. The changes in the crop–climate relationship suggests a future constraint in crop suitability, which could be detrimental to future food security in West Africa. Further studies to explore associated short- and long-term adaptation options are recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]