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During the mid-Pliocene (3.264-3.025 Ma), atmospheric CO2 concentrations were approximately 400 ppm and the Antarctic ice sheet was substantially reduced compared to today. Antarctica is surrounded by the Southern Ocean, which plays a crucial role in the global oceanic circulation and climate regulation. Using results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2), we investigate Southern Ocean conditions during the mid-Pliocene with respect to the pre-industrial period. We find that the mean sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the Southern Ocean is 2.8°C, while global mean SST warming is 2.4°C. The enhanced warming is strongly tied to a dramatic decrease in sea-ice cover over the mid-Pliocene Southern Ocean. We also see a freshening of the ocean (sub)surface, driven by an increase in precipitation over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. The warmer and fresher surface leads to a highly stratified Southern Ocean, that can be related to weakening of the deep abyssal overturning circulation. Sensitivity simulations show that the decrease in sea-ice cover and enhanced warming is largely a consequence of the reduction of the Antarctic ice sheet. In addition, the mid-Pliocene geographic boundary conditions are responsible for approximately half of the increase in mid-Pliocene SST warming, sea ice loss, precipitation and stratification increase over the Southern Ocean. From these results, we conclude that a strongly reduced Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mid- Pliocene has a substantial influence on the state of the mid-Pliocene Southern Ocean and exacerbates the changes that are induced by a higher CO2 concentration alone. This is relevant for the long-term future of the Southern Ocean, as we expect melting of the western Antarctic ice sheet in the future, an effect that is not currently taken into account in future projections by CMIP ensembles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate understanding of permafrost dynamics is critical for evaluating and mitigating impacts that may arise as permafrost degrades in the future; however, existing projections have large uncertainties. Studies of how permafrost responded historically during Earth’s past warm periods are helpful in exploring potential future permafrost behavior and to evaluate the uncertainty of future permafrost change projections. Here, we combine a surface frost index model with outputs from the second phase of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project to simulate the near‐surface (~3 to 4 m depth) permafrost state in the Northern Hemisphere during the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, ~3.264 to 3.025 Ma). This period shares similarities with the projected future climate. Constrained by proxy-based surface air temperature records, our simulations demonstrate that near‐surface permafrost was highly spatially restricted during the mPWP and was 93 ± 3% smaller than the preindustrial extent. Near‐surface permafrost was present only in the eastern Siberian uplands, Canadian high Arctic Archipelago, and northernmost Greenland. The simulations are similar to near‐surface permafrost changes projected for the end of this century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario and provide a perspective on the potential permafrost behavior that may be expected in a warmer world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The occurrence of sedimentary storm deposits around the Tethys Ocean during the early Toarcian hyperthermal (~183 Ma) suggests that intensified tropical cyclone (TC) activity occurred in response to CO2 rise and marked warming. However, this hypothesized linkage between extreme warmth and storm activity remains untested, and the spatial pattern of any changes in TCs is unclear. Here, model results show that there were two potential storm genesis centers over Tethys during the early Toarcian hyperthermal located around the northwestern and southeastern Tethys. The empirically determined doubling of CO2 concentration that accompanied the early Toarcian hyperthermal (~500 to ~1,000 ppmv) leads to increased probability of stronger storms over Tethys, in tandem with more favorable conditions for coastal erosion. These results match well with the geological occurrence of storm deposits during the early Toarcian hyperthermal and confirm that increased TC intensity would have accompanied global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the dominant climate forcings in the Pliocene is crucial to assessing the usefulness of the Pliocene as an analogue for our warmer future. Here we implement a novel, yet simple linear factorisation method to assess the relative influence of CO2 forcing in seven models of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) ensemble. Outputs are termed "FCO2" and show the fraction of Pliocene climate change driven by CO2. The accuracy of the FCO2 method is first assessed through comparison to an energy balance analysis previously used to assess drivers of surface air temperature in the PlioMIP1 ensemble. After this assessment, the FCO2 method is applied to achieve an understanding of the drivers of Pliocene sea surface temperature and precipitation for the first time. CO2 is found to be the most important forcing in the ensemble for Pliocene surface air temperature (global mean FCO2 = 0.56), sea surface temperature (global mean FCO2 = 0.56) and precipitation (global mean FCO2 = 0.51). The range between individual models is found to be consistent between these three climate variables, and the models generally show good agreement on the sign of the most important forcing. Our results provide the most spatially complete view of the drivers of Pliocene climate to date, and have implications for both data-model comparison and the use of the Pliocene as an analogue for the future. That CO2 is found to be the most important forcing reinforces that the Pliocene is a good palaeoclimate analogue, but the significant effect of non-CO2 forcing at regional scale reminds us that it is not perfect, and this must not be overlooked. This comparison is further complicated when considering the Pliocene as a state in quasi-equilibrium with CO2 forcing compared to the transient warming being experienced at present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the Flexible Particle dispersion model (FLEXPART) is applied to determine the moisture source of heavy precipitation in Xinjiang in the wet season (April--September) from 1979 to 2018. This is investigated for different meteorological patterns of heavy precipitation categories based on the self-organizing maps (SOM) method. The SOM results suggest that there are four main meteorological patterns (N1, N2, N3, and N4) for heavy precipitation in Xinjiang. These match the strength and position of geopotential height anomalies at middle-to-high levels over central Asia and indicate the anomalous activities of the central Asia trough and vortex. Further analysis shows that the heavy precipitation is centered at the Tianshan Mountains and the Kunlun Mountains in the N1 and N3 patterns and around the Tianshan Mountains in the N2 and N4 patterns. There are four moisture source regions that contribute to each of the four meteorological patterns for heavy precipitation in Xinjiang, which are listed in descending order of their contribution rates: southern Xinjiang (29%-37%), north-central Asia (19%-27%), northern Xinjiang (14%-19%), and south-central Asia (13%-16%). The contribution of each source to the heavy precipitation in Xinjiang varies with the meteorological pattern. Additionally, the contribution rates of each source region match well with the precipitation-related particle aggregation before heavy precipitation days. These results help us better understand the moisture source of the heavy precipitation in Xinjiang. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glaciers over High-Mountain Asia (HMA) provide a critical window into past climate change and the linkage between high and low-latitude glaciation, but how glaciers may have varied during past glacial-interglacial cycles remains elusive. Here, we reconstruct the timing and extent of glaciations for the last 425 kyr over HMA, using a climate-glaciation simulation constrained by observations and glacial geologic evidence. We illustrate that there were multiple alpine-style glaciations comparable in extent to those during the last glacial maximum during the last four glacial-interglacial cycles. The extent and timing of glaciations vary across HMA, especially between the westerly influenced northern and the monsoonal-influenced southern HMA. The ~23-kyr periodicity dominates HMA glaciation due to the critical role of precession in regulating summer temperature and precipitation. Our results, in addition to helping to fill the incomplete glacial geologic record, provide a framework to test hypotheses linking orbital-scale climate, glaciation, and landscape evolution over HMA. Plain Language Summary Glaciers are sensitive indicators of climate change and sculpting the landscape we observe today, but there is an incomplete picture of how glaciers over High-Mountain Asia (HMA) might vary during past glacial-interglacial cycles. Here, we provide the first geological evidence-constrained scenario on glaciation evolution over HMA during the last four glacial-interglacial cycles. We illustrate that there were multiple significant glaciations masked by extensive valley glaciers and expanded ice caps for the last 425 kyr, but a continental-scale ice sheet did not develop. Meantime, the ~23-kyr periodicity dominates HMA glaciation, in contrast to the 100-kyr cycle for the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Moreover, the extent and timing of glaciations vary across HMA, especially between the westerly influenced northern and monsoonal-influenced southern HMA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paleobotanical and sedimentological records indicate that marked climatic and environmental transitions had taken place in East China by the early Miocene. These transitions were driven by paleogeographic and global climatic shifts, but the respective roles of these shifts in the Asian climate remain unclear. Here, we use the low-resolution Norwegian Earth System Model and Community Atmosphere Model version 4 to compare the effects of Tibetan Plateau (TP) growth, Paratethys Sea retreat and global cooling on the East Asian climate change that occurred by the early Miocene. The modeling results indicate that these three factors had clearly different climatic effects in East China. In particular, TP growth increased annual precipitation in East China, while Paratethys Sea retreat and global cooling generally decreased annual precipitation in East China. In addition, the three factors studied all drove aridification in inland Asia. Considering the increased precipitation, arid/semiarid-to-humid shift in vegetation and high plant diversity present in East China by the early Miocene, as shown in geological records, TP growth thus played a major role in these respects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ~3.2 million years ago) is seen as the most recent time period characterized by a warm climate state, with similar modern geography and ~400 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration, and is therefore often considered an interesting analogue for near-future climate projections. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions indicate higher surface temperatures, decreasing tropical deserts, and a more humid climate in West Africa characterized by a strengthened West African Monsoon (WAM). Using model results from the second phase of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2) ensemble we analyze changes of the WAM rainfall during the mPWP, by comparing with the control simulations for the pre-industrial period. The ensemble shows a robust increase of the summer rainfall over West Africa and the Sahara region with an average increase of 2.7 mm/day, contrasted by a rainfall decrease over the equatorial Atlantic. An anomalous warming of the Sahara Desert and deepening of the Saharan Heat Low, seen in >90% of the models, leads to a strengthening of the WAM and an increased monsoonal flow into the continent. A similar warming of the Sahara Desert is seen in future projections using both phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), and though previous studies of future projections indicate a west/east drying/wetting contrast over Sahel, PlioMIP2 simulations indicate a uniform rainfall increase over Sahel in warm climates characterized by increasing greenhouse gas forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding of the climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in a different climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of the climate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16 simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60-90° N) annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 °C compared to the pre-industrial, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of 7.2 °C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to global SAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea ice extent anomalies range from -3.0 to - 10.4 x 06 km² with a MMM anomaly of -5.6 x 106 km², which constitutes a decrease of 53 % compared to the pre-industrial. The majority (11 out of 16) models simulate summer sea ice-free conditions (= 1 x 06 km²) in their mPWP simulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic when compared to available reconstructions. The simulations with the highest Arctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current form better. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice, particularly with regards to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit the confidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of the different proxy datasets. We show that, while reducing uncertainties in the reconstructions could decrease the SAT data-model discord substantially, further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditions or model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP to projections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates greater Arctic amplification, an increase instead of a decrease in AMOC strength compared to pre-industrial, and a lesser strengthening of northern modes of variability than CMIP5 future climate simulations. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks in equilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when using simulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Throughout the Pleistocene the Earth has experienced pronounced glacial-interglacial cycles, which have been debated for decades. One concept widely held is that during most glacials only the Laurentide-Eurasian ice sheets across North America and Northwest Eurasia became expansive, while Northeast Siberia-Beringia remained ice-sheet-free. However, the recognition of glacial landforms and deposits on Northeast Siberia-Beringia and off the Siberian continental shelf is beginning to call into question this paradigm. Here, we combine climate and ice sheet modelling with well-dated paleoclimate records from the mid-to-high latitude North Pacific to demonstrate the episodic occurrences of an ice sheet across Northeast Siberia-Beringia. Our simulations first show that the paleoclimate records are irreconcilable with the established paradigm of Laurentide-Eurasia-only ice sheets, and then reveal that a Beringian ice sheet over Northeast Siberia-Beringia causes feedbacks between atmosphere and ocean, the result of which better explains these climate records from around the North Pacific during the past four glacial-interglacial cycles. Our simulations propose an alternative scenario for NH ice sheet evolution, which involves the rapid waxing and waning of the Beringian ice sheet alongside the growth of the Laurentide-Eurasian ice sheets. The new scenario settles the long-standing discrepancies between the direct glacial evidence and the climate evolution from around the mid-to-high latitude North Pacific. It depicts a high complexity in glacial climates and has important implications for our understanding of the dispersal of prehistoric humans through Beringia into North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) is a standard experiment for the evaluation of the simulated response of global climate models using paleoclimate reconstructions. The latest mid-Holocene simulations are a contribution by the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) to the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Here we provide an initial analysis and evaluation of the results of the experiment for the mid-Holocene. We show that state-of-the-art models produce climate changes that are broadly consistent with theory and observations, including increased summer warming of the northern hemisphere and associated shifts in tropical rainfall. Many features of the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations were present in the previous generation (PMIP3-CMIP5) of simulations. The PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble for the mid-Holocene has a global mean temperature change of -0.3 K, which is -0.2 K cooler that the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations predominantly as a result of the prescription of realistic greenhouse gas concentrations in PMIP4-CMIP6. Neither this difference nor the improvement in model complexity and resolution seems to improve the realism of the simulations. Biases in the magnitude and the sign of regional responses identified in PMIP3-CMIP5, such as the amplification of the northern African monsoon, precipitation changes over Europe and simulated aridity in mid-Eurasia, are still present in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations. Despite these issues, PMIP4-CMIP6 and the mid-Holocene provide an opportunity both for quantitative evaluation and derivation of emergent constraints on climate sensitivity and feedback strength. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present results from an ensemble of seven climate models, each of which has carried out simulations of the early Eocene climate optimum (EECO, ~50 million years ago). These simulations have been carried out in the framework of DeepMIP (www.deepmip.org), and as such all models have been configured with identical paleogeographic and vegetation boundary conditions. The results indicate that these non-CO2 boundary conditions contribute between 3 and 5 °C to Eocene warmth. Compared to results from previous studies, the DeepMIP simulations show reduced spread of global mean surface temperature response across the ensemble, for a given atmospheric CO2 concentration. In a marked departure from the results from previous simulations, at least two of the DeepMIP models (CESM and GFDL) are consistent with proxy indicators of global mean temperature, and atmospheric CO2, and meridional SST gradients. The best agreement with global SST proxies from these models occurs at CO2 concentrations of around 2400 ppmv. At a more regional scale the models lack skill in reproducing the proxy SSTs, in particular in the southwest Pacific, around New Zealand and south Australia, where the modelled anomalies are substantially less than indicated by the proxies. However, in these regions modelled continental surface air temperature anomalies are consistent with surface air temperature proxies, implying an inconsistency between marine and terrestrial temperatures in either the proxies or models in this region. Our aim is that the documentation of the large scale features and model-data comparison presented herein will pave the way to further studies that explore aspects of the model simulations in more detail, for example the ocean circulation, hydrological cycle, and modes of variability; and encourage sensitivity studies to aspects such as paleogeography and aerosols. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ~ 400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution and based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.4 and 4.7 °C relative to pre-industrial with a multi-model mean value of 2.8 °C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 6 % (range: 2 %-13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases are 1.3 °C greater over the land than over the oceans, and there is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60° N and 60° S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.4. In the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. Although there are some modelling constraints, there is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble earth system response to doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is approximately 50 % greater than ECS, consistent with results from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea-surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and indicate a range in ECS from 2.5 to 4.3 °C. This result is in general accord with the range in ECS presented by previous IPCC Assessment Reports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a continuation of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), PlioMIP Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) coordinates a wide selection of different climate model experiments aimed at further improving our understanding of the climate and environments during the late Pliocene with updated boundary conditions. Here we report on PlioMIP2 simulations carried out by the two versions of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM), NorESM-L and NorESM1-F, with updated boundary conditions derived from the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping version 4 (PRISM4). The two NorESM versions both produce warmer and wetter Pliocene climate. Relative to the pre-industrial period, the simulated Pliocene global mean surface air temperature is 2.1 °C higher with NorESM-L and 1.7 °C higher with NorESM1-F, respectively, and the corresponding global mean sea surface temperature enhances by 1.5 °C and 1.2 °C. The simulated precipitation for the Pliocene increases by 0.14 mm day−1 globally in both model versions, with large responses in the tropics and especially in monsoon regions. In the simulated warmer and wetter Pliocene world, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) become deeper and stronger, with the maximum AMOC levels increasing by ~ 9 % (with NorESM-L) and ~ 15 % (with NorESM1-F), while the meridional overturning circulation slightly strengthens in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Although the two models produce similar Pliocene climates, they also generate some differences, in particular for the Southern Ocean, which should be investigated through the PlioMIP2 in the future. As compared to PlioMIP1, the simulated Pliocene warming with NorESM-L is weaker in PlioMIP2, but otherwise show very similar responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An equilibrium simulation of Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) climate with boundary conditions characteristic of Greenland Interstadial 8 (GI-8; 38 ka BP) is carried out with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). A computationally efficient configuration of the model enables long integrations at relatively high resolution, with the simulations reaching a quasi-equilibrium state after 2500 years. We assess the characteristics of the simulated large-scale atmosphere and ocean circulation, precipitation, ocean hydrography, sea ice distribution, and internal variability. The simulated MIS3 interstadial near surface air temperature is 2.9 °C cooler than the pre-industrial (PI). The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is deeper and intensified (by ~ 13%). There is a decrease in the volume of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) reaching the Atlantic. However, there is an increase in ventilation of the Southern Ocean, associated with a significant expansion of Antarctic sea ice and intensified brine rejection, invigorating ocean convection. In the central Arctic, sea ice is ~ 2 m thicker, with an expansion of sea ice in the Nordic Seas during winter. Simulated MIS3 inter-annual variability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Arctic Oscillation are weaker compared to the pre-industrial. Attempts at triggering a non-linear transition to a cold stadial climate state by varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations and Laurentide Ice Sheet height, suggest that the simulated MIS3 interstadial state in the NorESM is relatively stable, thus questioning the potential for unforced abrupt transitions in Greenland climate during the last glacial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been widely believed that Northeast (NE) Siberia remained ice-free during most Pleistocene Northern Hemisphere (NH) glaciations, while ice sheets extended gradually across North America and Northwest (NW) Eurasia. However, recent fieldwork has provided robust evidence of ice sheets occupying the shallow continental shelf of the East Siberian Sea during several Pleistocene glaciations. The debate surrounding the existence and history of this enigmatic NE Siberian ice sheet highlights fundamental gaps in our current understanding of the mechanisms of glacial climate evolution. Here, we combine climate and ice sheet simulations to demonstrate how ice-vegetation-atmosphere-ocean dynamics can lead to two ice sheet configurations: the well-known Laurentide-Eurasian configuration with large ice sheets over North America and NW Eurasia, and a circum-Arctic configuration with large ice sheets over NE Siberia and the Canadian Rockies. Compared to the Laurentide-Eurasian configuration, formation of the circum-Arctic configuration can occur with an atmospheric stationary wave pattern similar to today's. Once the circum-Arctic configuration is established, it amplifies atmospheric stationary waves, leading to surface warming in the North Pacific, ablation of the NE Siberian ice sheet, and ultimately a swing to the Laurentide-Eurasian configuration. Our simulations highlight the complexity of glacial climates, and may hint towards potential mechanisms for interglacial-glacial transitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the threats that tropical cyclones (TC) pose to people and infrastructure, there is significant interest in how the climatology of these storms may change with climate. The global historical record has been extensively examined, but it is short and plagued with recurring questions about its homogeneity, limiting its effectiveness at assessing how TCs vary with climate. Past warm intervals provide an opportunity to quantify TC behavior in a warmer-than-present world. Here, we use a TC-resolving (~25 km) global atmospheric model to investigate TC activity during the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264-3.025 Ma) that shares similarities with projections of future climate. Two experiments, one driven by the reconstructed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the other by the SSTs from an ensemble of mid-Pliocene simulations, consistently predict enhanced global-average peak TC intensity during the mid-Pliocene coupled with longer duration, increased power dissipation, and a poleward migration of the location of peak intensity. The simulations are similar to global TC changes observed during recent global warming, as well as those of many future projections, providing a window into the potential TC activity that may be expected in a warmer world. Changes to power dissipation and TC frequency, especially in the Pacific, are sensitive to the different SST patterns, which could affect the viability of the role of TCs as a factor for maintaining a reduced zonal SST gradient during the Pliocene, as recently hypothesized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eight general circulation models have simulated the mid-Pliocene warm period (mid-Pliocene, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) as part of the Pliocene Modelling Intercompari-son Project (PlioMIP). Here, we analyse and compare their simulation of Arctic sea ice for both the pre-industrial period and the mid-Pliocene. Mid-Pliocene sea ice thickness and extent is reduced, and the model spread of extent is more than twice the pre-industrial spread in some summer months. Half of the PlioMIP models simulate ice-free conditions in the mid-Pliocene. This spread amongst the ensemble is in line with the uncertainties amongst proxy reconstructions for mid-Pliocene sea ice extent. Correlations between mid-Pliocene Arctic temperatures and sea ice extents are almost twice as strong as the equivalent correlations for the pre-industrial simulations. The need for more comprehensive sea ice proxy data is highlighted, in order to better compare model performances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]