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The aim of this paper was to characterize the warm and dry compound events (WD days) in Poland during the period of 1966–2023, focusing on assessing the frequency and intensity of such events and their spatial and temporal variability, as well as on the driving factors of warm and dry compound events. WD days are those days that have a maximum temperature equal to or higher than the 90th percentile and the precipitation on that day and the 14 preceding days are equal to or less than the 25 percentile. During 1966–2023, the frequency of WD days increased significantly, mainly in April, the summer months, and December. Higher temperatures favored the occurrence of WD days from March to November, but, in winter months, the heat did not favor the occurrence of WD days. The exception was December, when high temperatures in the first part of the analyzed period did not favor the occurrence of a dry day, whereas, in the second part, it did. The strongest influence on the frequency of WD days had the East Atlantic pattern, where air flowed over Poland from the southwest. Warm and humid air flowing from the Atlantic Ocean must overcome the mountain barrier; therefore, it flows to Poland as warm and dry air. From spring to autumn, the WD days were related to an increase in the geopotential height in central Eastern Europe, and, in the winter, they were related with blocking over the Balkans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the beginning of the 21st century, the heat waves in Europe have become more frequent, severe and longer lasting, especially in the southern region. The longer duration of heat waves may be partly attributed to wave‐amplification, high‐amplitude waves in the mid‐latitudes, favouring the longer‐lasting blocking systems. The primary objective of the paper was to examine the long‐term changes of hot days and heat wave events and to identify the atmospheric circulation condition that prevails its occurrence. The other object was to investigate the correlations between hot days' occurrence in Poland and sea‐ice cover and sea surface temperature changes in the Arctic and its surroundings. Over the past few decades, Central and Southern Poland have experienced a considerable rise in maximum temperatures, which has led to an increase in the number of hot days. This increase is particularly prominent during the summer months (June, July and August) but also in May and September, which extends the hot season. Although heat waves have become more frequent and persistent since 2006, their mean intensity has remained unchanged. During all heat waves in Poland, the high‐pressure centre was located over the country or its close neighbourhood, mainly in the eastern sector but also in the south, southwest or over Scandinavia. The blocking systems were mainly related to the extended ridge of the Azores High, but also to strong blocking over the North Pole and Greenland reaching Scandinavia or anomalous high pressure in the East Arctic. The longest‐lasting heat waves were usually preceded by air masses advection from the Atlantic, but the highest potential temperature along the trajectories was observed for the southern direction of inflow. The growing number of hot days is statistically significantly related to the decreasing sea‐ice cover and increasing sea surface temperature in Arctic and Subarctic regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to present the spatial and temporal variability of the frequency of dry and wet days and dry and wet spells against the background of changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulation. The study is based on daily precipitation totals from 46 meteorological stations in Poland from 1966 to 2023. Additionally, seven circulation indices were used, namely GBI, NAO, AO, EA, EA/WR, SCAND, and AMO. Dry days are defined as days without precipitation. Wet days are days with at least 1 mm of precipitation. It was shown that dry spells are much more common than wet spells, are longer, and cover larger areas. Long-term changes in the annual characteristics of dry and wet days and spells are not statistically significant. Only the length of the most extended dry spell in the year increases. However, there are significant changes in their annual cycles. Spring is drier; in summer, precipitation decreases in the south and increases in the north; November and December, symbols of gloomy rainy weather, are increasingly drier; and rainy weather has shifted to January and February. The impact of circulation varies according to the season, with the NAO, AO, SCAND, and GBI indices having the greatest influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snow cover (SC) is a great indicator of climate change. It is highly related to temperature. Since the Polish climate faces warmer conditions, changes in the wintertime precipitation phase are observed. More frequent rainfall instead of snowfall is noticed at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st centuries. This work presents the spatial distribution, its changes, and variabilities of selected parameters that described snow cover in Poland from 1966/1967 to 2020/2021. The snow characteristics used in the study comprise of SC duration (SCD), the first and last day with SC in the season (SCbeg and SCend), the potential duration of SC season (PSCD), SC stability (SCS), average, maximum and accumulated SC depth (HS, HSmax and AHS). The changes in snow cover waves were analysed. Generally, the Polish climate is mild in the west, where the snow cover is finer and occurs relatively rarely and becomes more continental toward the north‐east, where the snow cover has a better condition to accumulate and preserve. The southern parts of the country are covered by mountain ranges of the Carpathians and Sudetes, where the snow cover remains the longest. The spatial distribution of the coefficient of variability is reversely proportional to SC characteristics—the highest in the north‐east (especially for the HS, HSmax and AHS). The most significant changes in SC are related to a decrease in SCD (5–7 days/decade), HSmax (1–2 cm/decade) and AHS (30–60 cm/decade). At the same time, the snow cover season becomes considerably shorter (especially in the western and central parts—about 10 days/decade). The trends in SCS are not yet significant in most of the country. This study reveals that the snow cover in Poland is under constant change, and the negative trends, which were hardly or not visible at the end of the 20th century, in the last decades have become statistically significant in a greater number of Polish stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interpolation of precipitation data is a common practice for generating continuous, spatially-distributed fields that can be used for a range of applications, including climate modeling, water resource management, and agricultural planning. To obtain the reference field, daily observation data from the measurement network of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute was used. In this study, we compared and combined six different interpolation methods for daily precipitation in Poland, including bilinear and bicubic interpolation, inverse distance weighting, distance-weighted average, nearest neighbor remapping, and thin plate spline regression. Implementations of these methods available in the R programming language (e.g., from packages akima, gstat, fields) and the Climate Data Operators (CDO) were applied. The performance of each method was evaluated using multiple metrics, including the Pearson correlation coefficient (RO) and the correspondence ratio (CR), but there was no clear optimal method. As an interpolated resulting field, a field consisting of the best interpolations for individual days was proposed. The assessment of daily fields was based on the CR and RO parameters. Our results showed that the combined approach outperformed individual methods with higher accuracy and reliability and allowed for generating more accurate and reliable precipitation fields. On a group of selected stations (data quality and no missing data), the precipitation result fields were compared with the fields obtained in other projects-CPLFD-GDPT5 (Berezowski et al. 2016) and G2DC-PLC (Piniewski et al. 2021). The variance inflation factor (VIF) was bigger for the resulting fields (~5), while for the compared fields, it was below 3. However, for the mean absolute error (MAE), the relationship was reversed - the MAE was approximately half as low for the fields obtained in this work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We found substantial differences in the atmospheric response to sea ice area (SIA) loss depending on sectors and seasons. In the Eurasian sector, the highest SIA reduction occurred in the last 15 years, whereas in the American sector, single years of low SIA were also observed in the last two decades of the 20th century and at the beginning of the 21st century. For years of the lowest SIA in the Eurasian sector, the strong warming in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS) and cooling in central Asia is created, giving rise to the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern development. The enhancement of high‐pressure centre over Asia and the formation of Ural Blocking follows these anomalies. After the low SIA in May–June in the Eurasian sector, in summer, the very strong Greenland Blocking is created, reaching the North Pole and the whole of Eurasia (only in August), increasing in magnitude with altitude, which gives much warmer conditions in the North American high‐latitude region (NAH), BKS, and Europe. For the years of the lowest SIA in the American sector, the Pacific High is much more developed and extended in the entire vertical profile. This strong positive anomaly brings colder weather in Alaska and the western United States. It is most apparent after low SIA in summer and autumn and is probably due to significant changes in sea ice cover over the Chukchi Sea during that time. At the same time, the Aleutian Low is deepened in the Kamchatka neighbourhood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Prace Geograficzne is the property of Jagiellonian University, Institute of Geography & Spatial Management and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Acta Geographica Lodziensia is the property of Lodz Scientific Society / Lodzkie Towarzystwo Naukowe and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Credible information about the properties and changes of extreme events on the regional and local scales is of prime importance in the context of future climate change. Within the EU‐COST Action VALUE a comprehensive validation framework for downscaling methods has been developed. Here we present validation results for extremes of temperature and precipitation from the perfect predictor experiment that uses reanalysis‐based predictors to isolate downscaling skill. The raw reanalysis output reveals that there is mostly a large bias with respect to the extreme index values at the considered stations across Europe, clearly pointing to the necessity of downscaling. The performance of the downscaling methods is closely linked to their specific structure and setup. All methods using parametric distributions require non‐standard distributions to correctly represent marginal aspects of extremes. Also, the performance is much improved by explicitly including a seasonal component, particularly in case of precipitation. With respect to the marginal aspects of extremes the best performance is found for model output statistics (MOS), weather generators (WGs) as well as perfect prognosis (PP) methods using analogues. Spell‐length‐related extremes of temperature are best assessed by MOS and WGs, spell‐length‐related extremes of precipitation by MOS and PP methods using analogues. The skill of PP methods with transfer functions varies strongly across the methods and depends on the extreme index, region and season considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Acta Geographica Lodziensia is the property of Lodz Scientific Society / Lodzkie Towarzystwo Naukowe and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

There are two aims of this paper: First, the relationship between daily and hourly precipitation extremes and air temperature is investigated for the validity of Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) scaling; second, the impact of the atmospheric circulation and transport of humidity on the extreme precipitation events occurrence in Poland is analysed based on data obtained from 26 stations across Poland in the period 1951–2015. It was shown that daily‐scale extreme rainfall is less sensitive to changes in local atmospheric temperature but the hourly intensities reveal a similar behaviour at all stations showing a robust signal over the entire country. Regarding the impact of the large‐scale atmospheric circulation, three types were distinguished in cool part of the year: one connected with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), second with a low‐pressure zone in the north and high‐pressure in the south of Europe and the northern Atlantic and third with a low over central Europe. Each time high precipitation in Poland was connected with the advection of humid air from the western sectors (SW, W or NW). In the warm part of the year three types were distinguished too, Poland was always in the scope of low‐pressure systems with the advection of warm air from the southern sectors or when the warm air from the south meets the colder air from the north. Similar localizations of low centres have been found in the case of local‐scale atmospheric circulation types during events with extreme precipitation. Both in cool and warm part of the year such events are connected with the increase of water vapour in the air. In cool season the wet and warm air masses inflow to Poland the most often from Atlantic, in the warm season—from Mediterranean and/or Black Seas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study is focused on early fall season in southern Siberia (50-60 N) and is purposed as a contribution to the discussion on the climatic relevance of October Eurasian snow cover. Analysis is based on the daily snow depth data from 43 stations from years 1980-2012, available in the database of All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information-World Data Centre. The snow cover season in southern Siberia starts in early autumn and the number of days with snowfall varies from less than 5 days in the southernmost zone along the parallel 50 N to more than 25 days in the northeastern part of the analyzed area. October snowfall in southern Siberia is associated with occurrence of negative anomalies of sea level pressure (SLP), usually spreading right over the place of recorded intense snowfall or extending eastward from it. Negative anomalies of air temperature at the 850 hPa geopotential level (T850) occurring with increased cyclonic activity are also observed. Negative T850 anomalies are located west or northwest of the SLP depressions. Counterclockwise circulation around low-pressure systems transports cold Arctic air from the north or even colder Siberian polar air from the east, to the west, and northwest parts of cyclones, and induces negative anomalies of temperature. The pattern of T850 anomalies during heavy snowfalls in the eastern part of the southern Siberia is shifted counterclockwise in regard to SLP anomalies: the strongest negative T850 anomalies are located west or northwest of the SLP depressions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snow accumulation and associated synoptic conditions in the Russian Arctic are analysed based on snow depth data from 1950 to 2013 from the All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information—World Data Centre data set. The mean duration of snow coverage in the Russian Arctic is approximately eight to nine months. While the period of snowmelt is usually very short (one or two months), snow accumulates during most of the cold season (October–May). Snow accumulation is associated with negative anomalies of sea level pressure and positive anomalies of air temperature, which means increased cyclonic activity over the analysed region. The cyclones differ in intensity and localization, depending on the area of snowfall. In the western part of the Russian Arctic the cyclones and air masses that bring snowfall may originate from the North Atlantic, while in the eastern part they originate from the Bering Sea, Okhotsk Sea or the North Pacific. The cyclones that bring snowfall may also form locally along the zonal border between two different air masses: the very cold, polar, continental air originating from the Siberian High and the Arctic air from the north, which is often warmer and always more humid than the continental air. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the paper was to assess the robustness of four bias correction techniques: simple bias correction, distribution based bias correction, delta change and distribution based delta change. Data from nine RCM simulations of CORDEX project and 41 Polish weather stations were used. The methods were calibrated in the period 1971-1985 and evaluated in 1991-2005. The improvement in mean, 10th and 90th percentiles was shown, without significant differences among methods. For 1st and 99th percentiles the improvement was generally weaker and simple methods seem to be more robust than the distribution based ones. Strong differences between individual models were found, so the use of model ensemble is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mean duration of snow coverage in the West Siberian Plain is approximately eight months in the north to about five months in the south. While the period of intense snow melting is short (one or two months between March and May), snow accumulation persists for most of the cold season. Snow accumulation is associated with negative anomalies of sea level pressure, which means increased cyclonal activity and weaker than normal Siberian High. Much lower anomalies of sea level pressure occur during snow ablation. This suggests smaller influence of air circulation on snow cover reduction in spring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

VALUE is an open European network to validate and compare downscaling methods for climate change research. VALUE aims to foster collaboration and knowledge exchange between climatologists, impact modellers, statisticians, and stakeholders to establish an interdisciplinary downscaling community. A key deliverable of VALUE is the development of a systematic validation framework to enable the assessment and comparison of both dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. In this paper, we present the key ingredients of this framework. VALUE's main approach to validation is user- focused: starting from a specific user problem, a validation tree guides the selection of relevant validation indices and performance measures. Several experiments have been designed to isolate specific points in the downscaling procedure where problems may occur: what is the isolated downscaling skill? How do statistical and dynamical methods compare? How do methods perform at different spatial scales? Do methods fail in representing regional climate change? How is the overall representation of regional climate, including errors inherited from global climate models? The framework will be the basis for a comprehensive community-open downscaling intercomparison study, but is intended also to provide general guidance for other validation studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold waves commonly occur in higher latitudes under prevailing high pressure systems especially during winter season which cause serious economical loss and cold related death. Accurate prediction of such severe weather events is important for decision making by administrators and for mitigation planning. An Advanced high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model is used to simulate a severe cold wave event occurred during January 2006 over Europe. The model is integrated for 31 days starting from 00UTC of 1 January 2006 with 30 km horizontal resolution. Comparison of the model derived area averaged daily mean temperatures at 2m height from different zones over the central Europe with observations indicates that the model is able to simulate the occurrence of the cold wave with the observed time lag of 1 to 3 days but with lesser intensity. The temperature, winds, surface pressure and the geopential heights at 500 hPa reveal that the cold wave development associates with the southward progression of a high pressure system and cold air advection. The results have good agreement with the analysis fields indicates that the model has the ability to reproduce the time evolution of the cold wave event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the cloudiness variations in Łódź-Lublinek meteorological station in central Poland in the second half of the 20th century. It is mentioned that the area's total cloud cover has significantly decreased in the said period, which oppose to that of the low-level cloud cover in the warm part of the year. Variations in frequencies of cloud types including Stratus, Nimbostratus, Cumulus, Cumulonimbus and Altocumulus, were also discussed. Observations of the changes are said to be consistent with other observations in central and eastern Europe. The author declares that the variability of the cloud types is a tool for assessing the changes in the troposphere process, and indicating changes in the vertical structure of the troposphere.

Seasonality in the interannual variability of atmospheric moisture over Europe is investigated using precipitable water (PW) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data set for 1979–2004. Over Europe the summer PW and its interannual variability (expressed by standard deviations) are essentially larger than those of the winter season. The largest seasonal differences are found over eastern Europe and European Russia, where the summer PW climatology and magnitudes of its interannual variability exceed respective winter characteristics by a factor of 2.5–3.8. The first and second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of winter PW over Europe are associated, respectively, with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic teleconnection pattern. During summer the leading EOFs of PW are not linked to the known regional teleconnection patterns. Our analysis revealed that EOF-1 of summer PW is associated with sea level pressure (SLP) pattern characterized by two action centres of opposite polarity over northwestern Siberia and over a broad region including southern Europe, the Mediterranean Sea and part of northern Africa. The EOF-2 of summer PW is associated with cyclonic/anticyclonic SLP anomalies over Scandinavia and southwestern Europe. It is shown that PW and precipitation variability are positively coupled during the cold season but not for the warm season. Instead, during the warm season we found a significant link between regional PW and air temperature variability, indicating an important role of local heating in variability of summer PW over Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the study is to analyze the occurrence of hot days and heat waves in Poland, their intra-annual distribution, and their long-term variability, and to present the circulation factors favoring the appearance of extensive waves in the country. Hot days were days with Tmax not lower than the threshold value defined by the 95th percentile of summer Tmax in the period 1961–1990. Atmospheric circulation was described using sea level pressure, geopotential of 700 and 500 hPa level, and horizontal and vertical wind on these levels. A statistically significant increase in the number of hot days in the entire study period and a significant acceleration in growth after 1980 were shown. In the entire analyzed period, only 11 waves were found covering at least 25% of the country area and lasting no less than a week. Among them, only one occurred before 1990, and more than half were observed in the last decade. Four circulation patterns favoring the extensive heat waves were distinguished differing the location of main baric center location. Spatial and temporal distribution of vertical velocity anomalies allows distinguishing clear phases of strengthening, stabilization, and weakening of anticyclone accompanying the occurrence of a heat wave. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The collapse in recruitment of the European eel ( Anguilla anguilla) since the early 1980s has been ascribed to possible overfishing, poisoning, parasitism, habitat loss and changes in ocean circulation. It is unclear which mechanism is most important, and firm data are lacking to make an assessment of the factors that apply over the full continental range. On the other hand, the recruitment of the American eel ( A. rostrata) has declined along the western Atlantic at about the same time. This suggests a candidate mechanism that can affect both species together. A change in ocean climate may be a likely explanation, which is supported by a possible link between the North Atlantic Oscillation and one important recruitment index. However, it is unsafe to discard the other possible mechanisms because of lack of evidence. Habitat loss, in particular, may be important. We review over a century of evidence to suggest how the eel may have declined through progressive habitat loss that accelerated in the early 1980s as the result of economic development linked with hydrological changes. Although no single line of evidence can definitely prove one hypothesis for the eel decline, the total body of information may indicate a pronounced susceptibility in the southwest corner of the continental range closest to the Sargasso Sea that has been particularly affected by drought and dam construction. The sexual dimorphism of the species together with the energy requirements of the spawning migration may provide insight to explain the population collapse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]