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Background: Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease (AD) are altered many years before the onset of clinical symptoms of mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Incorporating clinical symptom onset time into biomarker modeling may enhance our understanding of changes preceding MCI. Objective: Using a new analytical approach, we examined patterns of biomarker change prior to MCI symptom onset among individuals who progressed from normal cognition to MCI, stratified based on the age of symptom onset. We also analyzed biomarker patterns of change among participants who remained cognitively normal, and examined potential modifiers of biomarker trajectories, including demographics and apolipoprotein E (APOE) status. Methods: Analyses included 93 participants who progressed from normal cognition to MCI and 186 participants who remained cognitively normal, over an average follow-up period of 16.2 years. CSF biomarkers, including Aβ42, Aβ40, total tau (t-tau), and phosphorylated tau181 (p-tau181), were measured using the fully automated Lumipulse assays. Results: Among participants who progressed to MCI, Aβ42/Aβ40 decreased, and t-tau and p-tau181 increased. For participants who did not progress to MCI, CSF biomarkers showed relatively stable patterns. In both progressors and non-progressors, APOE4 carriers showed lower Aβ 42/Aβ40 levels (compared to non-carriers) at each point of the mean curves. Among non-progressors, APOE4 carriers had higher levels of p-tau181, p-tau181/(Aβ 42/Aβ40), and t-tau/(Aβ 42/Aβ 40). Additionally, among those who did not progress, female sex was associated with higher levels of t-tau, p-tau181, t-tau/(Aβ 42/Aβ 40), and p-tau181/(Aβ 42/Aβ 40). Conclusions: These findings suggest that this analytic approach may provide additional insights into biomarker changes during early phases of AD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Competing risks data are commonly encountered in randomized clinical trials and observational studies. This paper considers the situation where the ending statuses of competing events have different clinical interpretations and/or are of simultaneous interest. In clinical trials, often more than one competing event has meaningful clinical interpretations even though the trial effects of different events could be different or even opposite to each other. In this paper, we develop estimation procedures and inferential properties for the joint use of multiple cumulative incidence functions (CIFs). Additionally, by incorporating longitudinal marker information, we develop estimation and inference procedures for weighted CIFs and related metrics. The proposed methods are applied to a COVID‐19 in‐patient treatment clinical trial, where the outcomes of COVID‐19 hospitalization are either death or discharge from the hospital, two competing events with completely different clinical implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Competing risks data are commonly encountered in randomized clinical trials or observational studies. Ignoring competing risks in survival analysis leads to biased risk estimates and improper conclusions. Often, one of the competing events is of primary interest and the rest competing events are handled as nuisances. These approaches can be inadequate when multiple competing events have important clinical interpretations and thus of equal interest. For example, in COVID‐19 in‐patient treatment trials, the outcomes of COVID‐19 related hospitalization are either death or discharge from hospital, which have completely different clinical implications and are of equal interest, especially during the pandemic. In this paper we develop nonparametric estimation and simultaneous inferential methods for multiple cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) and corresponding restricted mean times. Based on Monte Carlo simulations and a data analysis of COVID‐19 in‐patient treatment clinical trial, we demonstrate that the proposed method provides global insights of the treatment effects across multiple endpoints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Racial and ethnic differences in survival after a first cancer are well established but have not been examined after a second primary cancer (SPC) despite the increasing incidence among survivors. Methods We examined 39 029 female breast cancer survivors who developed an SPC between 2000 and 2014 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 18 database. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression for competing risks data was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for cancer and cardiovascular disease mortality after SPCs comparing Hispanic, Non-Hispanic Asian, and Non-Hispanic Black survivors with Non-Hispanic White survivors. Models were adjusted for sociodemographics, tumor characteristics, and treatments of the first and second cancer. Analyses were stratified by SPC type. Results During 17 years of follow-up, there were 15 117 deaths after SPCs. The risk of cancer death was 12% higher among Non-Hispanic Black survivors (HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.05 to 1.19) and 8% higher among Hispanic survivors (HR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.00 to 1.16) compared with Non-Hispanic White survivors. In subgroup analyses, the strongest associations were observed among Non-Hispanic Black survivors with a second breast or uterine cancer and among Hispanic survivors with a second breast cancer. Non-Hispanic Black survivors also experienced a 44% higher risk of cardiovascular disease death after SPC diagnosis than Non-Hispanic White survivors (HR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.20 to 1.74). Conclusions Higher cancer mortality among Non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic survivors and higher cardiovascular mortality among Non-Hispanic Black survivors exist among women who survive a first breast cancer to develop an SPC. Studies focused on identifying the contributors to these disparities are needed to enable implementation of effective mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cross-sectionally sampled data with binary disease outcome are commonly analyzed in observational studies to identify the relationship between covariates and disease outcome. A cross-sectional population is defined as a population of living individuals at the sampling or observational time. It is generally understood that binary disease outcome from cross-sectional data contains less information than longitudinally collected time-to-event data, but there is insufficient understanding as to whether bias can possibly exist in cross-sectional data and how the bias is related to the population risk of interest. Wang and Yang (2021) presented the complexity and bias in cross-sectional data with binary disease outcome with detailed analytical explorations into the data structure. As the distribution of the cross-sectional binary outcome is quite different from the population risk distribution, bias can arise when using cross-sectional data analysis to draw inference for population risk. In this paper we argue that the commonly adopted age-specific risk probability is biased for the estimation of population risk and propose an outcome reassignment approach which reassigns a portion of the observed binary outcome, 0 or 1, to the other disease category. A sign test and a semiparametric pseudo-likelihood method are developed for analyzing cross-sectional data using the OR approach. Simulations and an analysis based on Alzheimer's Disease data are presented to illustrate the proposed methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: This study examined the association of lifetime experiences, measured by a cognitive reserve (CR) composite score composed of years of education, literacy, and vocabulary measures, to level and rate of change in white matter microstructure, as assessed by diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) measures. We also examined whether the relationship between the proxy CR composite score and white matter microstructure was modified by participant age, APOE -ε4 genetic status, and level of vascular risk. Methods: A sample of 192 non-demented (n = 166 cognitively normal, n = 26 mild cognitive impairment) older adults [mean age = 70.17 (SD = 8.5) years] from the BIOCARD study underwent longitudinal DTI (mean follow-up = 2.5 years, max = 4.7 years). White matter microstructure was quantified by fractional anisotropy (FA) and radial diffusivity (RD) values in global white matter tracts and medial temporal lobe (MTL) white matter tracts. Results: Using longitudinal linear mixed effect models, we found that FA decreased over time and RD increased over time in both the global and MTL DTI composites, but the rate of change in these DTI measures was not related to level of CR. However, there were significant interactions between the CR composite score and age for global RD in the full sample, and for global FA, global RD, and MTL RD among those with normal cognition. These interactions indicated that among participants with a lower baseline age, higher CR composite scores were associated with higher FA and lower RD values, while among participants with higher age at baseline, higher CR composite scores were associated with lower FA and higher RD values. Furthermore, these relationships were not modified by APOE -ε4 genotype or level of vascular risk. Conclusion: The association between level of CR and DTI measures differs by age, suggesting a possible neuroprotective effect of CR among late middle-aged adults that shifts to a compensatory effect among older adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) among cognitively normal older adults are increasingly recognized as risk factors for cognitive decline and impairment. However, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear.Objective: To examine whether biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease (amyloid burden) and cerebrovascular disease (white matter hyperintensity (WMH) volume) modify the association between NPS and cognitive decline among cognitively unimpaired older adults.Methods: Analyses included 193 cognitively unimpaired participants (M age = 70 years) from the BIOCARD study, including 148 with PET amyloid and WMH biomarker data. NPS were measured with Neuropsychiatric Inventory and Geriatric Depression Scale scores. Linear mixed effects models were used to examine the association between baseline NPS and longitudinal cognitive trajectories (M follow-up = 3.05 years), using separate models for global, episodic memory, and executive function cognitive composite scores. In a subset of individuals with biomarker data, we evaluated whether WMH or cortical amyloid burden modified the relationship between NPS and cognitive change (as indicated by the NPS×biomarker×time interactions).Results: Higher baseline NPS were associated with lower executive function scores, but not a faster rate of decline in executive function. NPS symptoms were unrelated to the global or episodic memory composite scores, and there was little evidence of a relationship between NPS symptoms and cognitive change over time. The associations between NPS and cognitive decline did not differ by amyloid or WMH burden, and NPS were unrelated to amyloid and WMH burden.Conclusion: These results suggest that the effect of neuropsychiatric symptoms on executive dysfunction may occur through mechanisms outside of amyloid and cerebrovascular disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This cross-sectional study examined whether performance on the computerized Paired Associate Learning (PAL) task from the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery is associated with amyloid positivity as measured by Positron Emission Tomography, regional volume composites as measured by Magnetic Resonance Imaging, and cognitive impairment. Participants from the BIOCARD Study (N = 73, including 62 cognitively normal and 11 with mild cognitive impairment; M age = 70 years) completed the PAL task, a comprehensive clinical and neuropsychological assessment, and neuroimaging as part of their annual study visit. In linear regressions covarying age, sex, years of education and diagnosis, higher PAL error scores were associated with amyloid positivity but not with medial temporal or cortical volume composites. By comparison, standard neuropsychological measures of episodic memory and global cognition were unrelated to amyloid positivity, but better performance on the verbal episodic memory measures was associated with larger cortical volume composites. Participants with mild cognitive impairment demonstrated worse cognitive performance on all of the cognitive measures, including the PAL task. These findings suggest that this computerized visual paired associate learning task may be more sensitive to amyloid positivity than standard neuropsychological tests, and may therefore be a promising tool for detecting amyloid positivity in non-demented participants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In biomedical practices, multiple biomarkers are often combined using a prespecified classification rule with tree structure for diagnostic decisions. The classification structure and cutoff point at each node of a tree are usually chosen on an ad hoc basis, depending on decision makers' experience. There is a lack of analytical approaches that lead to optimal prediction performance, and that guide the choice of optimal cutoff points in a pre‐specified classification tree. In this paper, we propose to search for and estimate the optimal decision rule through an approach of rank correlation maximization. The proposed method is flexible, theoretically sound, and computationally feasible when many biomarkers are available for classification or prediction. Using the proposed approach, for a prespecified tree‐structured classification rule, we can guide the choice of optimal cutoff points at tree nodes and estimate optimal prediction performance from multiple biomarkers combined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: We examined longitudinal cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarker changes among cognitively normal individuals with 10.7 years follow‐up, on average. Methods: Analyses included 278 participants (M age = 57.5 years); 94 have progressed from normal cognition to mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Amyloid beta (Aβ)42/Aβ40, phosphorylated tau181 (p‐tau181), and total tau (t‐tau) were measured using automated electrochemiluminescence assays. Results: Apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 carriers had lower baseline Aβ42/Aβ40, but longitudinal Aβ42/Aβ40 decreases did not differ by APOE ε4 after accounting for Aβ42/Aβ40 positivity. Lower baseline Aβ42/Aβ40 was associated with greater increases in tau (more strongly in males), and APOE ε4 genotype was associated with greater tau increases after reaching Aβ42/Aβ40 positivity. Participants who progressed to MCI had more abnormal biomarker levels and greater tau increases prior to MCI symptom onset. Biomarkers were more abnormal among older adults, but unrelated to sex or education. Discussion: Our results confirm accelerated biomarker changes during preclinical AD and highlight the important role of amyloid levels in tau accelerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Predicting the clinical trajectory of individual patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is challenging but necessary to inform clinical care. The majority of COVID-19 prognostic tools use only data present upon admission and do not incorporate changes occurring after admission.Objective: To develop the Severe COVID-19 Adaptive Risk Predictor (SCARP) (https://rsconnect.biostat.jhsph.edu/covid_trajectory/), a novel tool that can provide dynamic risk predictions for progression from moderate disease to severe illness or death in patients with COVID-19 at any time within the first 14 days of their hospitalization.Design: Retrospective observational cohort study.Settings: Five hospitals in Maryland and Washington, D.C.Patients: Patients who were hospitalized between 5 March and 4 December 2020 with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) confirmed by nucleic acid test and symptomatic disease.Measurements: A clinical registry for patients hospitalized with COVID-19 was the primary data source; data included demographic characteristics, admission source, comorbid conditions, time-varying vital signs, laboratory measurements, and clinical severity. Random forest for survival, longitudinal, and multivariate (RF-SLAM) data analysis was applied to predict the 1-day and 7-day risks for progression to severe disease or death for any given day during the first 14 days of hospitalization.Results: Among 3163 patients admitted with moderate COVID-19, 228 (7%) became severely ill or died in the next 24 hours; an additional 355 (11%) became severely ill or died in the next 7 days. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) for 1-day risk predictions for progression to severe disease or death was 0.89 (95% CI, 0.88 to 0.90) and 0.89 (CI, 0.87 to 0.91) during the first and second weeks of hospitalization, respectively. The AUC for 7-day risk predictions for progression to severe disease or death was 0.83 (CI, 0.83 to 0.84) and 0.87 (CI, 0.86 to 0.89) during the first and second weeks of hospitalization, respectively.Limitation: The SCARP tool was developed by using data from a single health system.Conclusion: Using the predictive power of RF-SLAM and longitudinal data from more than 3000 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, an interactive tool was developed that rapidly and accurately provides the probability of an individual patient's progression to severe illness or death on the basis of readily available clinical information.Primary Funding Source: Hopkins inHealth and COVID-19 Administrative Supplement for the HHS Region 3 Treatment Center from the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces two sets of measures as exploratory tools to study physical activity patterns: active‐to‐sedentary/sedentary‐to‐active rate function (ASRF/SARF) and active/sedentary rate function (ARF/SRF). These two sets of measures are complementary to each other and can be effectively used together to understand physical activity patterns. The specific features are illustrated by an analysis of wearable device data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). A two‐level semiparametric regression model for ARF and the associated activity magnitude is developed under a unified framework using the marked point process formulation. The inactive and active states measured by accelerometers are treated as a 0‐1 point process, and the activity magnitude measured at each active state is defined as a marked variable. The commonly encountered missing data problem due to device nonwear is referred to as "window censoring," which is handled by a proper estimation approach that adopts techniques from recurrent event data. Large sample properties of the estimator and comparison between two regression models as measurement frequency increases are studied. Simulation and NHANES data analysis results are presented. The statistical inference and analysis results suggest that ASRF/SARF and ARF/SRF provide useful analytical tools to practitioners for future research on wearable device data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A cross sectional population is defined as a population of living individuals at the sampling or observational time. Cross‐sectionally sampled data with binary disease outcome are commonly analyzed in observational studies for identifying how covariates correlate with disease occurrence. It is generally understood that cross‐sectional binary outcome is not as informative as longitudinally collected time‐to‐event data, but there is insufficient understanding as to whether bias can possibly exist in cross‐sectional data and how the bias is related to the population risk of interest. As the progression of a disease typically involves both time and disease status, we consider how the binary disease outcome from the cross‐sectional population is connected to birth‐illness‐death process in the target population. We argue that the distribution of cross‐sectional binary outcome is different from the risk distribution from the target population and that bias would typically arise when using cross‐sectional data to draw inference for population risk. In general, the cross‐sectional risk probability is determined jointly by the population risk probability and the ratio of duration of diseased state to the duration of disease‐free state. Through explicit formulas we conclude that bias can almost never be avoided from cross‐sectional data. We present age‐specific risk probability (ARP) and argue that models based on ARP offers a compromised but still biased approach to understand the population risk. An analysis based on Alzheimer's disease data is presented to illustrate the ARP model and possible critiques for the analysis results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The need for diagnostic biomarkers of cognitive decline is particularly important among aging adults with Down syndrome (DS). Growing empirical support has identified the utility of plasma derived biomarkers among neurotypical adults with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD); however, the application of such biomarkers has been limited among the DS population.Objective: This study aimed to investigate the cross-sectional diagnostic performance of plasma neurofilament light chain (Nf-L) and total-tau, individually and in combination among a cohort of DS adults.Methods: Plasma samples were analyzed from n = 305 (n = 225 cognitively stable (CS); n = 44 MCI-DS; n = 36 DS-AD) participants enrolled in the Alzheimer's Biomarker Consortium -Down Syndrome.Results: In distinguishing DS-AD participants from CS, Nf-L alone produced an AUC of 90%, total-tau alone reached 74%, and combined reached an AUC of 86%. When age and gender were included, AUC increased to 93%. Higher values of Nf-L, total-tau, and age were all shown to be associated with increased risk for DS-AD. When distinguishing MCI-DS participants from CS, Nf-L alone produced an AUC of 65%, while total-tau alone reached 56%. A combined model with Nf-L, total-tau, age, and gender produced an AUC of 87%. Both higher values in age and total-tau were found to increase risk for MCI-DS; Nf-L levels were not associated with increased risk for MCI-DS.Conclusion: Advanced assay techniques make total-tau and particularly Nf-L useful biomarkers of both AD pathology and clinical status in DS and have the potential to serve as outcome measures in clinical trials for future disease-modifying drugs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A time‐dependent measure, termed the rate ratio, was proposed to assess the local dependence between two types of recurrent event processes in one‐sample settings. However, the one‐sample work does not consider modeling the dependence by covariates such as subject characteristics and treatments received. The focus of this paper is to understand how and in what magnitude the covariates influence the dependence strength for bivariate recurrent events. We propose the covariate‐adjusted rate ratio, a measure of covariate‐adjusted dependence. We propose a semiparametric regression model for jointly modeling the frequency and dependence of bivariate recurrent events: the first level is a proportional rates model for the marginal rates and the second level is a proportional rate ratio model for the dependence structure. We develop a pseudo‐partial likelihood to estimate the parameters in the proportional rate ratio model. We establish the asymptotic properties of the estimators and evaluate the finite sample performance via simulation studies. We illustrate the proposed models and methods using a soft tissue sarcoma study that examines the effects of initial treatments on the marginal frequencies of local/distant sarcoma recurrence and the dependence structure between the two types of cancer recurrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tree‐based methods are popular nonparametric tools in studying time‐to‐event outcomes. In this article, we introduce a novel framework for survival trees and ensembles, where the trees partition the dynamic survivor population and can handle time‐dependent covariates. Using the idea of randomized tests, we develop generalized time‐dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for evaluating the performance of survival trees. The tree‐building algorithm is guided by decision‐theoretic criteria based on ROC, targeting specifically for prediction accuracy. To address the instability issue of a single tree, we propose a novel ensemble procedure based on averaging martingale estimating equations, which is different from existing methods that average the predicted survival or cumulative hazard functions from individual trees. Extensive simulation studies are conducted to examine the performance of the proposed methods. We apply the methods to a study on AIDS for illustration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Examine whether cognitive reserve moderates the association of 1) vascular risk factors and 2) white matter hyperintensity burden with risk of clinical progression and longitudinal cognitive decline. Methods: BIOCARD Study participants were cognitively normal and primarily middle‐aged (M = 57 years) at baseline and have been followed with annual cognitive and clinical assessments (M = 13 years). Baseline cognitive reserve was indexed with a composite score combining education with reading and vocabulary scores. Baseline vascular risk (N = 229) was assessed with a composite risk score reflecting five vascular risk factors. Baseline white matter hyperintensity load (N = 271) was measured with FLAIR magnetic resonance imaging. Cox regression models assessed risk of progression from normal cognition to onset of clinical symptoms of Mild Cognitive Impairment. Longitudinal mixed effects models measured the relationship of these variables to cognitive decline, using a global composite score, and executive function and episodic memory sub‐scores. Results: Both vascular risk and white matter hyperintensities were associated with cognitive decline, particularly in executive function. Higher vascular risk, but not white matter hyperintensity burden, was associated with an increased risk of progression to Mild Cognitive Impairment. Higher cognitive reserve was associated with a reduced risk of symptom onset and higher levels of baseline cognition but did not modify the associations between the vascular risk score and white matter hyperintensities with clinical progression or cognitive decline. Interpretation: Although cognitive reserve has protective effects on clinical and cognitive outcomes, it does not mitigate the negative impact of vascular risk and small vessel cerebrovascular disease on these same outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The second stage of labour begins when the cervix is fully dilated and pushing begins until the fetus is delivered. A Caesarean delivery (CD) or operative vaginal delivery (OVD) is typically encouraged after the recommended time set by 'expert consensus'. This recommended time has been set out of concern for an increased chance of maternal and neonatal morbidities due to a prolonged second stage of labour, but without thorough consideration of heterogeneous risks for spontaneous vaginal delivery (SVD) and morbidities among women. To provide quantitative evidence for the recommendation, the first step is to compare the risks for SVD, CD or OVD, and the risks of maternal or neonatal morbidities simultaneously across the duration of the second stage of labour. To address such risk comparisons statistically, one needs to study the joint distribution for the time to delivery due to each mode and time to maternal or neonatal morbidity given information provided for each individual. We introduce a joint model which combines the competing risks data for delivery time and current status data for any type of maternal or neonatal morbidity given each woman's baseline characteristics. These two processes are assumed dependent through individual‐specific frailty under the joint model. Our numerical studies include a simulation that reflects the structure of observed real data and a detailed real data analysis based on nearly 12000 spontaneous labours. Our finding indicates the necessity to incorporate maternal characteristic such as age or body mass index in assessing the probability for delivery due to SVD, CD or OVD and the onset of morbidities across the second stage of labour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In biomedical studies involving survival data, the observation of failure times is sometimes accompanied by a variable which describes the type of failure event (Kalbeisch and Prentice, 2002). This paper considers two specific challenges which are encountered in the joint analysis of failure time and failure type. First, because the observation of failure times is subject to left truncation, the sampling bias extends to the failure type which is associated with the failure time. An analytical challenge is to deal with such sampling bias. Second, in case that the joint distribution of failure time and failure type is allowed to have a temporal trend, it is of interest to estimate the joint distribution of failure time and failure type nonparametrically. This paper develops statistical approaches to address these two analytical challenges on the basis of prevalent survival data. The proposed approaches are examined through simulation studies and illustrated by using a real data set. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACTObjective:There is increasing evidence of an association between depressive symptoms and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in cross-sectional studies, but the longitudinal association between depressive symptoms and risk of MCI onset is less clear. The authors investigated whether baseline symptom severity of depression was predictive of time to onset of symptoms of MCI.Method: These analyses included 300 participants from the BIOCARD study, a cohort of individuals who were cognitively normal at baseline (mean age = 57.4 years) and followed for up to 20 years (mean follow-up = 2.5 years). Depression symptom severity was measured using the Hamilton Depression Scale (HAM-D). The authors assessed the association between dichotomous and continuous HAM-D and time to onset of MCI within 7 years versus after 7 years from baseline (reflecting the mean time from baseline to onset of clinical symptoms in the cohort) using Cox regression models adjusted for gender, age, and education.Results: At baseline, subjects had a mean HAM-D score of 2.2 (SD = 2.8). Higher baseline HAM-D scores were associated with an increased risk of progression from normal cognition to clinical symptom onset ≤ 7 years from baseline (p = 0.043), but not with progression > 7 years from baseline (p = 0.194). These findings remained significant after adjustment for baseline cognition.Conclusions: These results suggest that low levels of depressive symptoms may be predictive of clinical symptom onset within approximately 7 years among cognitively normal individuals and may be useful in identifying persons at risk for MCI due to Alzheimer's disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Recent advances of wearable computing technology have allowed continuous health monitoring in large observational studies and clinical trials. Examples of data collected by wearable devices include minute‐by‐minute physical activity proxies measured by accelerometers or heart rate. The analysis of data generated by wearable devices has so far been quite limited to crude summaries, for example, the mean activity count over the day. To better utilize the full data and account for the dynamics of activity level in the time domain, we introduce a two‐stage regression model for the minute‐by‐minute physical activity proxy data. The model allows for both time‐varying parameters and time‐invariant parameters, which helps capture both the transition dynamics between active/inactive periods (Stage 1) and the activity intensity dynamics during active periods (Stage 2). The approach extends methods developed for zero‐inflated Poisson data to account for the high‐dimensionality and time‐dependence of the high density data generated by wearable devices. Methods are motivated by and applied to the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent evidence indicates that measures from cerebrospinal fluid, MRI scans and cognitive testing obtained from cognitively normal individuals can be used to predict likelihood of progression to mild cognitive impairment several years later, for groups of individuals. However, it remains unclear whether these measures are useful for predicting likelihood of progression for an individual. The increasing focus on early intervention in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease emphasizes the importance of improving the ability to identify which cognitively normal individuals are more likely to progress over time, thus allowing researchers to efficiently screen participants, as well as determine the efficacy of any treatment intervention. The goal of this study was to determine which measures, obtained when individuals were cognitively normal, predict on an individual basis, the onset of clinical symptoms associated with a diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment due to Alzheimer's disease. Cognitively normal participants (n = 224, mean baseline age = 57 years) were evaluated with a range of measures, including: cerebrospinal fluid amyloid-β and phosphorylated-tau, hippocampal and entorhinal cortex volume, cognitive tests scores and APOE genotype. They were then followed to determine which individuals developed mild cognitive impairment over time (mean follow-up = 11 years). The primary outcome was progression from normal cognition to the onset of clinical symptoms of mild cognitive impairment due to Alzheimer's disease at 5 years post-baseline. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analyses examined the sensitivity and specificity of individual measures, and combinations of measures, as predictors of the outcome. Six measures, in combination, were the most parsimonious predictors of transition to mild cognitive impairment 5 years after baseline (area under the curve = 0.85; sensitivity = 0.80, specificity = 0.75). The addition of variables from each domain significantly improved the accuracy of prediction. The incremental accuracy of prediction achieved by adding individual measures or sets of measures successively to one another was also examined, as might be done when enrolling individuals in a clinical trial. The results indicate that biomarkers obtained when individuals are cognitively normal can be used to predict which individuals are likely to develop clinical symptoms at 5 years post-baseline. As a number of the measures included in the study could also be used as subject selection criteria in a clinical trial, the findings also provide information about measures that would be useful for screening in a clinical trial aimed at individuals with preclinical Alzheimer's disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the literature studying recurrent event data, a large amount of work has been focused on univariate recurrent event processes where the occurrence of each event is treated as a single point in time. There are many applications, however, in which univariate recurrent events are insufficient to characterize the feature of the process because patients experience nontrivial durations associated with each event. This results in an alternating event process where the disease status of a patient alternates between exacerbations and remissions. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of a chronic disease and its associated exacerbation-remission process over two time scales: calendar time and time-since-onset. In particular, over calendar time, we explore population dynamics and the relationship between incidence, prevalence and duration for such alternating event processes. We provide nonparametric estimation techniques for characteristic quantities of the process. In some settings, exacerbation processes are observed from an onset time until death; to account for the relationship between the survival and alternating event processes, nonparametric approaches are developed for estimating exacerbation process over lifetime. By understanding the population dynamics and within-process structure, the paper provide a new and general way to study alternating event processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recurrent events together with longitudinal measurements are commonly observed in follow-up studies where the observation is terminated by censoring or a primary failure event. In this article, we developed a joint model where the dependence of longitudinal measurements, recurrent event process and time to failure event is modeled through rescaling the time index. The general idea is that the trajectories of all biology processes of subjects in the survivors' population are elongated or shortened by the rate identified from a model for the failure event. To avoid making disputing assumptions on recurrent events or biomarkers after the failure event (such as death), the model is constructed on the basis of survivors' population. The model also possesses a specific feature that, by aligning failure events as time origins, the backward-in-time model of recurrent events and longitudinal measurements shares the same parameter values with the forward time model. The statistical properties, simulation studies and real data examples are conducted. The proposed method can be generalized to analyze left-truncated data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In comparative effectiveness studies of multicomponent, sequential interventions like blood product transfusion (plasma, platelets, red blood cells) for trauma and critical care patients, the timing and dynamics of treatment relative to the fragility of a patient's condition is often overlooked and underappreciated. While many hospitals have established massive transfusion protocols to ensure that physiologically optimal combinations of blood products are rapidly available, the period of time required to achieve a specified massive transfusion standard (e.g. a 1:1 or 1:2 ratio of plasma or platelets:red blood cells) has been ignored. To account for the time-varying characteristics of transfusions, we use semiparametric rate models for multivariate recurrent events to estimate blood product ratios. We use latent variables to account for multiple sources of informative censoring (early surgical or endovascular hemorrhage control procedures or death). The major advantage is that the distributions of latent variables and the dependence structure between the multivariate recurrent events and informative censoring need not be specified. Thus, our approach is robust to complex model assumptions. We establish asymptotic properties and evaluate finite sample performance through simulations, and apply the method to data from the PRospective Observational Multicenter Major Trauma Transfusion study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In follow-up studies, utility marker measurements are usually collected upon the occurrence of recurrent events until a terminal event such as death takes place. In this article, we define the recurrent marker process to characterize utility accumulation over time. For example, with medical cost and repeated hospitalizations being treated as marker and recurrent events, respectively, the recurrent marker process is the trajectory of cumulative cost, which stops to increase after death. In many applications, competing risks arise as subjects are at risk of more than one mutually exclusive terminal event, such as death from different causes, and modeling the recurrent marker process for each failure type is often of interest. However, censoring creates challenges in the methodological development, because for censored subjects, both failure type and recurrent marker process after censoring are unobserved. To circumvent this problem, we propose a nonparametric framework for the recurrent marker process with competing terminal events. In the presence of competing risks, we start with an estimator by using marker information from uncensored subjects. As a result, the estimator can be inefficient under heavy censoring. To improve efficiency, we propose a second estimator by combining the first estimator with auxiliary information from the estimate under noncompeting risks model. The large sample properties and optimality of the second estimator are established. Simulation studies and an application to the SEER-Medicare linked data are presented to illustrate the proposed methods. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Benefit–risk assessment is a crucial step in medical decision process. In many biomedical studies, both longitudinal marker measurements and time to a terminal event serve as important endpoints for benefit–risk assessment. The effect of an intervention or a treatment on the longitudinal marker process, however, can be in conflict with its effect on the time to the terminal event. Thus, questions arise on how to evaluate treatment effects based on the two endpoints, for the purpose of deciding on which treatment is most likely to benefit the patients. In this article, we present a unified framework for benefit–risk assessment using the observed longitudinal markers and time to event data. We propose a cumulative weighted marker process to synthesize information from the two endpoints, and use its mean function at a prespecified time point as a benefit–risk summary measure. We consider nonparametric estimation of the summary measure under two scenarios: (i) the longitudinal marker is measured intermittently during the study period, and (ii) the value of the longitudinal marker is observed throughout the entire follow-up period. The large-sample properties of the estimators are derived and compared. Simulation studies and data examples exhibit that the proposed methods are easy to implement and reliable for practical use. Supplemental materials for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Recurrent event data arise frequently in various fields such as biomedical sciences, public health, engineering, and social sciences. In many instances, the observation of the recurrent event process can be stopped by the occurrence of a correlated failure event, such as treatment failure and death. In this article, we propose a joint scale-change model for the recurrent event process and the failure time, where a shared frailty variable is used to model the association between the two types of outcomes. In contrast to the popular Cox-type joint modeling approaches, the regression parameters in the proposed joint scale-change model have marginal interpretations. The proposed approach is robust in the sense that no parametric assumption is imposed on the distribution of the unobserved frailty and that we do not need the strong Poisson-type assumption for the recurrent event process. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed semiparametric estimators under suitable regularity conditions. To estimate the corresponding variances of the estimators, we develop a computationally efficient resampling-based procedure. Simulation studies and an analysis of hospitalization data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Register illustrate the performance of the proposed method. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study examined whether cognitive reserve (CR) alters the relationship between magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measures of cortical thickness and risk of progression from normal cognition to the onset of clinical symptoms associated with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). The analyses included 232 participants from the BIOCARD study. Participants were cognitively normal and largely middle aged (M age = 56.5) at their baseline MRI scan. After an average of 11.8 years of longitudinal follow-up, 48 have developed clinical symptoms of MCI or dementia (M time from baseline to clinical symptom onset = 7.0 years). Mean thickness was measured over eight 'AD vulnerable' cortical regions, and cognitive reserve was indexed by a composite score consisting of years of education, reading, and vocabulary measures. Using Cox regression models, CR and cortical thickness were each independently associated with risk of clinical symptom onset within 7 years of baseline, suggesting that the neuronal injury occurring proximal to symptom onset has a direct association with clinical outcomes, regardless of CR. In contrast, there was a significant interaction between CR and mean cortical thickness for risk of progression more than 7 years from baseline, suggesting that individuals with high CR are better able to compensate for cortical thinning that is beginning to occur at the very earliest phase of AD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recurrent event processes with marker measurements are mostly and largely studied with forward time models starting from an initial event. Interestingly, the processes could exhibit important terminal behavior during a time period before occurrence of the failure event. A natural and direct way to study recurrent events prior to a failure event is to align the processes using the failure event as the time origin and to examine the terminal behavior by a backward time model. This article studies regression models for backward recurrent marker processes by counting time backward from the failure event. A three-level semiparametric regression model is proposed for jointly modeling the time to a failure event, the backward recurrent event process, and the marker observed at the time of each backward recurrent event. The first level is a proportional hazards model for the failure time, the second level is a proportional rate model for the recurrent events occurring before the failure event, and the third level is a proportional mean model for the marker given the occurrence of a recurrent event backward in time. By jointly modeling the three components, estimating equations can be constructed for marked counting processes to estimate the target parameters in the three-level regression models. Large sample properties of the proposed estimators are studied and established. The proposed models and methods are illustrated by a community-based AIDS clinical trial to examine the terminal behavior of frequencies and severities of opportunistic infections among HIV-infected individuals in the last 6 months of life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article considers nonparametric methods for studying recurrent disease and death with competing risks. We first point out that comparisons based on the well-known cumulative incidence function can be confounded by different prevalence rates of the competing events, and that comparisons of the conditional distribution of the survival time given the failure event type are more relevant for investigating the prognosis of different patterns of recurrence disease. We then propose nonparametric estimators for the conditional cumulative incidence function as well as the conditional bivariate cumulative incidence function for the bivariate gap times, that is, the time to disease recurrence and the residual lifetime after recurrence. To quantify the association between the two gap times in the competing risks setting, a modified Kendall's tau statistic is proposed. The proposed estimators for the conditional bivariate cumulative incidence distribution and the association measure account for the induced dependent censoring for the second gap time. Uniform consistency and weak convergence of the proposed estimators are established. Hypothesis testing procedures for two-sample comparisons are discussed. Numerical simulation studies with practical sample sizes are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed nonparametric estimators and tests. An application to data from a pancreatic cancer study is presented to illustrate the methods developed in this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluated the utility of baseline and longitudinal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measures of medial temporal lobe brain regions collected when participants were cognitively normal and largely in middle age (mean age 57 years) to predict the time to onset of clinical symptoms associated with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Furthermore, we examined whether the relationship between MRI measures and clinical symptom onset was modified by apolipoprotein E (ApoE) genotype and level of cognitive reserve (CR). MRI scans and measures of CR were obtained at baseline from 245 participants who had been followed for up to 18 years (mean follow-up 11 years). A composite score based on reading, vocabulary, and years of education was used as an index of CR. Cox regression models showed that lower baseline volume of the right hippocampus and smaller baseline thickness of the right entorhinal cortex predicted the time to symptom onset independently of CR and ApoE-ɛ4 genotype, which also predicted the onset of symptoms. The atrophy rates of bilateral entorhinal cortex and amygdala volumes were also associated with time to symptom onset, independent of CR, ApoE genotype, and baseline volume. Only one measure, the left entorhinal cortex baseline volume, interacted with CR, such that smaller volumes predicted symptom onset only in individuals with lower CR. These results suggest that MRI measures of medial temporal atrophy, ApoE-ɛ4 genotype, and the protective effects of higher CR all predict the time to onset of symptoms associated with MCI in a largely independent, additive manner during the preclinical phase of Alzheimer's disease. Hum Brain Mapp 36:2826-2841, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents methods and inference for causal estimation in semiparametric transformation models for the prevalent survival data. Through the estimation of the transformation models and covariate distribution, we propose a few analytical procedures to estimate the causal survival function. As the data are observational, the unobserved potential outcome (survival time) may be associated with the treatment assignment, and therefore there may exist a systematic imbalance between the data observed from each treatment arm. Further, due to prevalent sampling, subjects are observed only if they have not experienced the failure event when data collection began, causing the prevalent sampling bias. We propose a unified approach, which simultaneously corrects the bias from the prevalent sampling and balances the systematic differences from the observational data. We illustrate in the simulation study that standard analysis without proper adjustment would result in biased causal inference. Large sample properties of the proposed estimation procedures are established by techniques of empirical processes and examined by simulation studies. The proposed methods are applied to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and Medicare-linked data for women diagnosed with breast cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider a specific situation of correlated data where multiple outcomes are repeatedly measured on each member of a couple. Such multivariate longitudinal data from couples may exhibit multi-faceted correlations that can be further complicated if there are polygamous partnerships. An example is data from cohort studies on human papillomavirus (HPV) transmission dynamics in heterosexual couples. HPV is a common sexually transmitted disease with 14 known oncogenic types causing anogenital cancers. The binary outcomes on the multiple types measured in couples over time may introduce inter-type, intra-couple, and temporal correlations. Simple analysis using generalized estimating equations or random effects models lacks interpretability and cannot fully use the available information. We developed a hybrid modeling strategy using Markov transition models together with pairwise composite likelihood for analyzing such data. The method can be used to identify risk factors associated with HPV transmission and persistence, estimate difference in risks between male-to-female and female-to-male HPV transmission, compare type-specific transmission risks within couples, and characterize the inter-type and intra-couple associations. Applying the method to HPV couple data collected in a Ugandan male circumcision (MC) trial, we assessed the effect of MC and the role of gender on risks of HPV transmission and persistence. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In disease registries, bivariate survival data are typically collected under interval sampling. It refers to a situation when entry into a registry is at the time of the first failure event (i.e., HIV infection) within a calendar time window. For all the cases in the registry, time of the initiating event (i.e., birth) is retrospectively identified, and subsequently the second failure event (i.e., death) is observed during follow-up. In this paper we discuss how interval sampling introduces bias into the data. Given the sampling design that the first event occurs within a specific time interval, the first failure time is doubly truncated, and the second failure time is possibly informatively right censored. Consider semi-stationary condition that the disease progression is independent of when the initiating event occurs. Under this condition, this paper adopts copula models to assess association between the bivariate survival times with interval sampling. We first obtain bias-corrected estimators of marginal survival functions, and estimate association parameter of copula model by a two-stage procedure. In the second part of the work, covariates are incorporated into the survival distributions via the proportional hazards models. Inference of the association measure in copula model is established, where the association is allowed to depend on covariates. Asymptotic properties of proposed estimators are established, and finite sample performance is evaluated by simulation studies. The method is applied to a community-based AIDS study in Rakai to investigate dependence between age at infection and residual lifetime without and with adjustment for HIV subtype. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a unified framework to characterize the rate function of a recurrent event process through shape and size parameters. In contrast to the intensity function, which is the event occurrence rate conditional on the event history, the rate function is the occurrence rate unconditional on the event history, and thus it can be interpreted as a population-averaged count of events in unit time. In this paper, shape and size parameters are introduced and used to characterize the association between the rate function λ(⋅) and a random variable X. Measures of association between X and λ(⋅) are defined via shape- and size-based coefficients. Rate-independence of X and λ(⋅) is studied through tests of shape-independence and size-independence, where the shape- and size-based test statistics can be used separately or in combination. These tests can be applied when X is a covariable possibly correlated with the recurrent event process through λ(⋅) or, in the one-sample setting, when X is the censoring time at which the observation of N(⋅) is terminated. The proposed tests are shape- and size-based, so when a null hypothesis is rejected, the test results can serve to distinguish the source of violation. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In many biomedical applications, interest focuses on the occurrence of two or more consecutive failure events and the relationship between event times, such as age of disease onset and residual lifetime. Bivariate survival data with interval sampling arise frequently when disease registries or surveillance systems collect data based on disease incidence occurring within a specific calendar time interval. The initial event is then retrospectively confirmed and the subsequent failure event may be observed during follow-up. In life history studies, the initial and two consecutive failure events could correspond to birth, disease onset and death. The statistical features and bias of observed data in relation to interval sampling were discussed by Zhu & Wang (2012). Here we propose nonparametric estimation of the association between bivariate failure times based on Kendall’s tau for data collected with interval sampling. A nonparametric estimator is given, where the contribution of each comparable and orderable pair is weighted by the inverse of the associated selection probability. Analysis methods for bivariate survival data with interval sampling rely on the assumption of quasi-independence, i.e., that bivariate failure times and the time of the initial event are independent in the observable region. This paper develops a nonparametric test of quasi-independence based on a bivariate conditional Kendall’s tau for such data. Simulation studies demonstrate that the association estimator and testing procedure perform well with moderate sample sizes. Illustrations with two real datasets are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The APOE ε4 allele increases the risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease, whereas the APOE ε2 allele reduces risk. We examined whether cognitive reserve (CR), as measured by an index consisting of education, reading, and vocabulary, modifies these associations. CR was measured at baseline in 257 cognitively normal individuals (mean age 57.2 years) who have been followed for up to 17 years (mean follow-up = 9.2 years). Cox regression models showed that CR and APOE ε4 independently affected the risk of progressing from normal cognition to onset of clinical symptoms: CR reduced risk by about 50% in both ε4 carriers and non-carriers, while ε4 increased risk by about 150%. In contrast, APOE ε2 interacted with CR, such that CR was more protective in ε2 carriers than non-carriers. This suggests that individuals with an ε2 genotype may disproportionately benefit from lifetime experiences that enhance cognition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]