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There is growing, but inconsistent evidence suggesting oestrogen may play a key role in lung cancer development, especially among never‐smoking women for whom lung cancer risk factors remain largely elusive. Using the China Kadoorie Biobank, a large‐scale prospective cohort with 302 510 women aged 30 to 79 years recruited from 10 regions in China during 2004 to 2008, we assessed the risk of lung cancer death among self‐reported never‐smoking women who were cancer‐free at baseline, in relation to age at menarche, age at menopause, time since menopause, prior use of oral contraceptives (OCP), number of livebirths, breastfeeding and age at first livebirth. Women were followed up to December 31, 2016 with linkage to mortality data. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox regression, adjusting for key confounders including several socio‐demographic, environmental and lifestyle factors. Among 287 408 never‐smoking women, 814 died from lung cancer with a median follow‐up of 10.3 years. Women who had used OCP within 15 years prior to baseline had a significantly higher hazard of lung cancer death compared with never‐users: HR = 1.85 (95% CI: 1.14‐3.00) and risk increased by 6% with each additional year of use: HR = 1.06 (1.01‐1.10). Among parous women, the hazard of lung cancer death increased by 13% with each single livebirth: HR = 1.13 (1.05‐1.23); and among post‐menopausal women, the risk increased by 2% with each year since menopause: HR = 1.02 (1.01‐1.04). These results suggest that reproductive factors which were proxies for lower endogenous oestrogen level, for example, longer duration of OCP use, could play a role in lung cancer development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Early detection of breast cancer in asymptomatic women through screening is an important strategy in reducing the burden of breast cancer. In current organized breast screening programs, age is the predominant risk factor. Breast cancer risk assessment tools are numerical models that can combine information on various risk factors to estimate the risk of being diagnosed with breast cancer within a certain time period. These tools could be used to offer risk-based screening. This systematic review assessed, using a variety of methods, how accurately breast cancer risk assessment tools can group women eligible for screening within a population, into risk groups, so that each group could potentially be offered a screening protocol with more benefits and less harms compared to current age-based screening. Background: The benefits and harms of breast screening may be better balanced through a risk-stratified approach. We conducted a systematic review assessing the accuracy of questionnaire-based risk assessment tools for this purpose. Methods: Population: asymptomatic women aged ≥40 years; Intervention: questionnaire-based risk assessment tool (incorporating breast density and polygenic risk where available); Comparison: different tool applied to the same population; Primary outcome: breast cancer incidence; Scope: external validation studies identified from databases including Medline and Embase (period 1 January 2008–20 July 2021). We assessed calibration (goodness-of-fit) between expected and observed cancers and compared observed cancer rates by risk group. Risk of bias was assessed with PROBAST. Results: Of 5124 records, 13 were included examining 11 tools across 15 cohorts. The Gail tool was most represented (n = 11), followed by Tyrer-Cuzick (n = 5), BRCAPRO and iCARE-Lit (n = 3). No tool was consistently well-calibrated across multiple studies and breast density or polygenic risk scores did not improve calibration. Most tools identified a risk group with higher rates of observed cancers, but few tools identified lower-risk groups across different settings. All tools demonstrated a high risk of bias. Conclusion: Some risk tools can identify groups of women at higher or lower breast cancer risk, but this is highly dependent on the setting and population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) is effective for menopausal symptoms, however, its use is also associated with risks of serious health conditions including breast, ovarian and endometrial cancer, stroke and venous thromboembolism. MHT-related health risks increase with longer durations of use. In Australia, while overall MHT use fell when risk-related findings were published in 2002, a significant number of women continue using MHT long-term. We aimed to examine socio-demographic, health-related and lifestyle characteristics in relation to post-2002 MHT use, and to compare use for <5 and ≥5 years. Data from 1,561 participants from an Australian, national, cross-sectional survey of women aged 50–69 in 2013 were analysed. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated using logistic regression for characteristics related to overall MHT use post-2002 and multinomial logistic regression for associations between MHT duration of use [never/<5 years/≥5 years] and personal characteristics, adjusting for sociodemographic, reproductive, health and lifestyle factors. Post-2002 MHT use was associated with increasing age (p-trend<0.001), hysterectomy versus no hysterectomy (OR:2.55, 95%CI = 1.85–3.51), bilateral oophorectomy vs no oophorectomy (OR:1.66, 95%CI = 1.09–2.53), and ever- versus never-use of therapies other than MHT for menopausal symptoms (OR:1.93, 95%CI = 1.48–2.57). Women with prior breast cancer (OR:0.35, 95%CI = 0.17–0.74) and with more children (p-trend = 0.034) were less likely than other women to use MHT. Prior hysterectomy was more strongly associated with MHT use for ≥5 years than for <5 years (p = 0.004). Ever-use of non-MHT menopausal therapies was associated with MHT use for <5 years but not with longer-term use (p = 0.004). This study reinforces the need for MHT users and their clinicians to re-evaluate continued MHT use on an ongoing basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recommendations for using menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) and bisphosphonates for postmenopausal osteoporosis management have changed over time. After the release of the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) trial results in 2002, new evidence on risks and benefits of MHT became available, and newer guidelines generally specify that MHT should not be prescribed for prevention of chronic disease, including osteoporosis. This raises the question of whether bisphosphonate prescribing changed over time to compensate for the decrease in MHT use. Materials and Methods: We examined trends in dispensed prescriptions in Australia (national) and Canada (province of Manitoba) in relation to prescribing recommendations. Administrative data were used to describe dispensing patterns and changes for persons of all ages from 1996 to 2008, and for women aged 50 to ≥80 years from 2003 to 2008 in Australia and 1996 to 2008 in Canada. Results: In both geographic settings, MHT dispensing increased 1996–2001, peaked in 2001, and declined substantially thereafter (67% reduction in MHT prescriptions for Australia; 64% reduction for Manitoba, Canada to 2008). From 2003 to 2008, the number of MHT prescriptions declined among all age groups in both settings, with the highest declines among women in their 50s. Concurrently, bisphosphonate dispensing increased until 2005 (2001–2005: 260% increase in the number of prescriptions in Australia; 125% increase in Manitoba) and stabilized thereafter, in both settings. Annual bisphosphonate dispensing rates increased 4.1–10.9% for women in their 70s and 80s in Australia and Manitoba during the period studied. Conclusions: Based on dispensed prescriptions data, more recent guidelines for MHT and bisphosphonates use for postmenopausal osteoporosis, which were updated during the study period (and are still consistent with the current guidelines), appear to have been broadly adhered to in both settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimates of the future breast cancer burden preventable through modifications to current behaviours are lacking. We assessed the effect of individual and joint behaviour modifications on breast cancer burden for premenopausal and postmenopausal Australian women, and whether effects differed between population subgroups. We linked pooled data from six Australian cohort studies (n = 214,536) to national cancer and death registries, and estimated the strength of the associations between behaviours causally related to cancer incidence and death using adjusted proportional hazards models. We estimated exposure prevalence from representative health surveys. We combined these estimates to calculate Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and compared PAFs for population subgroups. During the first 10 years follow‐up, there were 640 incident breast cancers for premenopausal women, 2,632 for postmenopausal women, and 8,761 deaths from any cause. Of future breast cancers for premenopausal women, any regular alcohol consumption explains 12.6% (CI = 4.3–20.2%), current use of oral contraceptives for ≥5 years 7.1% (CI = 0.3–13.5%), and these factors combined 18.8% (CI = 9.1–27.4%). Of future breast cancers for postmenopausal women, overweight or obesity (BMI ≥25 kg/m2) explains 12.8% (CI = 7.8–17.5%), current use of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) 6.9% (CI = 4.8–8.9%), any regular alcohol consumption 6.6% (CI = 1.5–11.4%), and these factors combined 24.2% (CI = 17.6–30.3%). The MHT‐related postmenopausal breast cancer burden varied by body fatness, alcohol consumption and socio‐economic status, the body fatness‐related postmenopausal breast cancer burden by alcohol consumption and educational attainment, and the alcohol‐related postmenopausal breast cancer burden by breast feeding history. Our results provide evidence to support targeted and population‐level cancer control activities. What's new? While several potentially‐modifiable behavioural risk factors have been identified for breast cancer, estimates of the preventable future breast cancer burden are still lacking. Based on a large prospective pooled Australian cohort, here the authors reveal that regular alcohol consumption is the leading modifiable cause of breast cancer burden for premenopausal women (12.6%). Using the latest exposure prevalence information, the authors rank body fatness as the leading cause of preventable breast cancer burden for postmenopausal women (12.8%), with regular alcohol consumption also contributing substantially (6.6%). The findings provide evidence to support targeted and population‐level cancer control activities in Australia and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Primary HPV screening enables earlier diagnosis of cervical lesions compared to cytology, however, its effect on the risk of treatment and adverse obstetric outcomes has not been extensively investigated. We estimated the cumulative lifetime risk (CLR) of cervical cancer and excisional treatment, and change in adverse obstetric outcomes in HPV unvaccinated women and cohorts offered vaccination (>70% coverage in 12-13 years) for the Australian cervical screening program. Two-yearly cytology screening (ages 18-69 years) was compared to 5-yearly primary HPV screening with partial genotyping for HPV16/18 (ages 25-74 years). A dynamic model of HPV transmission, vaccination, cervical screening and treatment for precancerous lesions was coupled with an individual-based simulation of obstetric complications. For cytology screening, the CLR of cervical cancer diagnosis, death and treatment was estimated to be 0.649%, 0.198% and 13.4% without vaccination and 0.182%, 0.056% and 6.8%, in vaccinated women, respectively. For HPV screening, relative reductions of 33% and 22% in cancer risk for unvaccinated and vaccinated women are predicted, respectively, compared to cytology. Without the implementation of vaccination, a 4% increase in treatment risk for HPV versus cytology screening would have been expected, implying a possible increase in pre-term delivery (PTD) and low birth weight (LBW) events of 19 to 35 and 14 to 37, respectively, per 100,000 unvaccinated women. However, in vaccinated women, treatment risk will decrease by 13%, potentially leading to 4 to 41 fewer PTD events and from 2 more to 52 fewer LBW events per 100,000 vaccinated women. In unvaccinated women in cohorts offered vaccination as 12-13 year olds, no change to lifetime treatment risk is expected with HPV screening. In unvaccinated women in cohorts offered vaccination as 12-13 year olds, no change to lifetime treatment risk is expected with HPV screening. HPV screening starting at age 25 in populations with high vaccination coverage, is therefore expected to both improve the benefits (further decrease risk of cervical cancer) and reduce the harms (reduce treatments and possible obstetric complications) associated with cervical cancer screening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Several evaluations of the cost-effectiveness (CE) of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) have been reported. The aim of this study was to systematically and critically review economic evaluations of MHT since 2002, after the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) trial results on MHT were published.Methods: The inclusion criteria for the review were: CE analyses of MHT versus no treatment, published from 2002-2016, in healthy women, which included both symptom relief outcomes and a range of longer term health outcomes (breast cancer, coronary heart disease, stroke, fractures and colorectal cancer). Included economic models had outcomes expressed in cost per quality-adjusted life year or cost per life year saved. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Evidence-Based Medicine Reviews databases and the Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry were searched. CE evaluations were assessed in regard to (i) reporting standards using the CHEERS checklist and Drummond checklist; (ii) data sources for the utility of MHT with respect to menopausal symptom relief; (iii) cost derivation; (iv) outcomes considered in the models; and (v) the comprehensiveness of the models with respect to factors related to MHT use that impact long term outcomes, using breast cancer as an example outcome.Results: Five studies satisfying the inclusion criteria were identified which modelled cohorts of women aged 50 and older who used combination or estrogen-only MHT for 5-15 years. For women 50-60 years of age, all evaluations found MHT to be cost-effective and below the willingness-to-pay threshold of the country for which the analysis was conducted. However, 3 analyses based the quality of life (QOL) benefit for symptom relief on one small primary study. Examination of costing methods identified a need for further clarity in the methodology used to aggregate costs from sources. Using breast cancer as an example outcome, risks as measured in the WHI were used in the majority of evaluations. Apart from the type and duration of MHT use, other effect modifiers for breast cancer outcomes (for example body mass index) were not considered.Conclusions: This systematic review identified issues which could impact the outcome of MHT CE analyses and the generalisability of their results. The estimated CE of MHT is driven largely by estimates of QOL improvements associated with symptom relief but data sources on these utility weights are limited. Future analyses should carefully consider data sources and the evidence on the long term risks of MHT use in terms of chronic disease. This review highlights the considerable difficulties in conducting cost-effectiveness analyses in situations where short term benefits of an intervention must be evaluated in the context of long term health outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Menopausal Hormone Therapy (MHT) use in Australia fell by 55% from 2001 to 2005, following the release of large-scale findings on its risks and benefits. Comprehensive national data, including information on overall prevalence of MHT use as well as information on duration of use in Australia have not been reported since the 2004–5 National Health Survey, when 11% of women aged 45+ years were estimated to be current MHT users. No national data are available on prevalence of use of “bioidentical” hormone therapy (BHT). The objective of this study was to determine recent prevalence of MHT and BHT use. A cross-sectional, national, age-stratified, population survey was conducted in 2013. Eligible women, aged 50–69 years, resident in Australia were randomly sampled in 5-year age groups from the Medicare enrolment database (Australia’s universal health scheme). The response rate was 22% based on return of completed questionnaires, and analyses were restricted to 4,389 women within the specified age range. The estimated population-weighted prevalence of current use of MHT was 13% (95%CI 12–14), which was broadly similar to the previously reported national figures in 2004–5, suggesting that the use of MHT in Australia has largely stabilised over the past decade. A total of 39% and 20% of current-users with an intact uterus reported use of oestrogen-progestagen MHT and oestrogen-only MHT, respectively, whereas 77% of hysterectomised current-users used oestrogen-only MHT. Almost three-quarters of current-users [population-weighted prevalence 9% (95%CI 8–10)] had used MHT for ≥5 years. In regard to BHT, estimated population-weighted prevalence of ever use was 6% (95%CI 6–7) and 2% (95%CI 2–3) for current use. The population-weighted prevalence of MHT and BHT combined, in current users in their fifties and sixties was 15% (95%CI 14–16). These data provide a recent national “snapshot” of Australian women’s use of both conventional MHT and of BHT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Australia commenced human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in 2007, with a two-year catch-up to the age of 26; catch-up cohorts are thus now entering their thirties. Plans for monitoring vaccine impact involve pre- and post-vaccination assessment of cervical HPV DNA in the general population and in high grade abnormalities. Although HPV serology is less sensitive than DNA genotyping, it assesses lifetime exposure and may be easier to measure in the general population. However, benchmark pre-vaccination seroprevalence of vaccine-included types in unvaccinated women with high grade abnormalities has not previously been reported. Methods: We assessed seroprevalence for HPV16/18 from a population-based sample of 3,729 women with normal cytology and 971 women with confirmed high grade abnormalities (CIN2/3), aged 30-64 years, unvaccinated, and recruited in New South Wales in 2006-2010. We examined the variation in HPV16/18 seropositivity by age and in relation to a range of reproductive and behavioural characteristics in the subgroup of normal cytology women with no recent history of high grade cervical disease. Results: The HPV 16, 18 and combined seroprevalence was 19%, 7% and 24% among women with normal cytology, and 39%, 13% and 44% among women with CIN2/3, respectively. For both groups, HPV16/18 seroprevalence was highest at age 30-39 years and decreased with age. In multivariable analysis for women with normal cytology, HPV16 and HPV18 seropositivity were each associated with the number of lifetime sexual partners (p-trend <0.001 and 0.052, respectively) and for HPV16 this was also associated with age (p-trend <0.001) and prior diagnosis of Chlamydia (adjusted OR 1.89, 95%C 1.27-2.80). Conclusions: The findings of this study inform pre-vaccination estimates of HPV seropositivity in women with normal cytology and women with high grade abnormalities. Almost a quarter of unvaccinated women aged over 30 years with normal cytology, and more than 40% of those with CIN2/3, had seroconverted to HPV 16 or 18. These findings provide a potential additional benchmark for assessing the effects of HPV vaccination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Altered protein glycosylation compared with the disease-free state is a universal feature of cancer cells. It has long been established that distinct glycan structures are associated with specific forms of cancer, but far less is known about the complete array of glycans associated with certain tumors. The cancer glycome has great potential as a source of biomarkers, but progress in this field has been hindered by a lack of available techniques for the elucidation of disease-associated glycosylation. In the present study, lectin microarrays consisting of 45 lectins with different binding preferences covering N- and O-linked glycans were coupled with evanescent-field activated fluorescent detection in the glycomic analysis of primary breast tumors and the serum and urine of patients with metastatic breast cancer. A single 50 µm section of a primary breast tumor or <1 µL of breast cancer patient serum or urine was sufficient to detect glycosylation alterations associated with metastatic breast cancer, as inferred from lectin-binding patterns. The high-throughput, sensitive and relatively simple nature of the simultaneous analysis of N- and O-linked glycosylation following minimal sample preparation and without the need for protein deglycosylation makes the lectin microarray analysis described a valuable tool for discovery phase glycomic profiling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Estimates of the future burden of invasive cancer attributable to current modifiable causal exposures can guide cancer prevention. Methods We linked pooled data from seven Australian cohort studies (N = 367,058) to national cancer and death registries, and estimated exposure-cancer and exposure-death associations using adjusted proportional hazards models. We estimated exposure prevalence from contemporary national health surveys and calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs) and 95% confidence intervals, using advanced methods accounting for competing risk of death. Results Current levels of past and current smoking explain 36.1% (95%CI 33.2%-38.9%), body fatness 13.6% (10.9%-16.2%) and alcohol consumption exceeding two drinks/day 2.3% (1.0%-3.6%) of cancers causally related to these exposures, corresponding to 210,000, 81,300 and 14,800 cancers in Australia in the next 10 years, respectively. Ever smoking is the leading modifiable cause of lung (82.1%), bladder (49.8%), oesophageal (42.8%), liver (39.8%), head and neck (35.6%), and pancreatic (21.3%) cancer burden. Body fatness is the leading modifiable cause of corpus uteri (42.5%), gastric cardia (33.6%), renal cell (29.1%), thyroid (20.1%), colorectal (12.6%) and postmenopausal breast (12.6%) cancer burden. The absolute numbers of cancers in the next 10 years attributable to smoking are highest for lung cancer (114,000). The numbers of cancers attributable to body fatness and alcohol are highest for colorectal cancer (23,000 and 9,900, respectively). Conclusions More reliable advanced methods demonstrate large proportions and numbers of cancers are preventable by modifying behaviours. Key messages Ever smoking and body fatness are the leading causes of preventable future burden of causally related cancers in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is a growing interest in delivering more personalised, risk-based breast cancer screening protocols. This requires population-level validation of practical models that can stratify women into breast cancer risk groups. Few studies have evaluated the Gail model (NCI Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool) in a population screening setting; we validated this tool in a large, screened population.Methods: We used data from 40,158 women aged 50-69 years (via the lifepool cohort) participating in Australia's BreastScreen programme. We investigated the association between Gail scores and future invasive breast cancer, comparing observed and expected outcomes by Gail score ranked groups. We also used machine learning to rank Gail model input variables by importance and then assessed the incremental benefit in risk prediction obtained by adding variables in order of diminishing importance.Results: Over a median of 4.3 years, the Gail model predicted 612 invasive breast cancers compared with 564 observed cancers (expected/observed (E/O) = 1.09, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.18). There was good agreement across decile groups of Gail scores (χ2 = 7.1, p = 0.6) although there was some overestimation of cancer risk in the top decile of our study group (E/O = 1.65, 95% CI 1.33-2.07). Women in the highest quintile (Q5) of Gail scores had a 2.28-fold increased risk of breast cancer (95% CI 1.73-3.02, p < 0.0001) compared with the lowest quintile (Q1). Compared with the median quintile, women in Q5 had a 34% increased risk (95% CI 1.06-1.70, p = 0.014) and those in Q1 had a 41% reduced risk (95% CI 0.44-0.79, p < 0.0001). Similar patterns were observed separately for women aged 50-59 and 60-69 years. The model's overall discrimination was modest (area under the curve (AUC) 0.59, 95% CI 0.56-0.61). A reduced Gail model excluding information on ethnicity and hyperplasia was comparable to the full Gail model in terms of correctly stratifying women into risk groups.Conclusions: This study confirms that the Gail model (or a reduced model excluding information on hyperplasia and ethnicity) can effectively stratify a screened population aged 50-69 years according to the risk of future invasive breast cancer. This information has the potential to enable more personalised, risk-based screening strategies that aim to improve the balance of the benefits and harms of screening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]