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Post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD) is one of the most solidly documented asset pricing anomalies. We use the controlled conditions of the experimental lab to investigate whether earnings autocorrelation is the driving cause of this anomaly. We observe PEAD in settings with uncorrelated and correlated earnings surprises, confirming that earnings autocorrelation is not a necessary condition for PEAD. Instead, it acts as an accelerator: PEAD is stronger when earnings surprises are correlated. We further show that market prices underadjust to fundamental value changes, and that trading strategies can profitably exploit the PEAD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a unique panel data set of private German firms to analyze the relation between managerial overconfidence and investment policy in small and medium-sized firms. We find that overconfident managers invest more, and that this relation is driven by expansion investments. When considering the outcome of investment projects, we find that projects initiated by overconfident managers are less likely to be completed as planned. When we differentiate between three types of non-completion (downsizing, delaying, and abandoning), we find that overconfident managers are more likely to delay, rather than to abandon or downsize a project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a model in which limit order traders possess volatility information. We show that in this case the size of the bid-ask spread is informative about future volatility. Moreover, if volatility information is in part private, we establish that (i) the size of the bid-ask spread and (ii) its informativeness about future volatility should change in the same direction when limit order traders' identifiers stop being disclosed. We test these predictions using data from the Paris Bourse. As expected, we find that the average quoted spread and its informativeness are significantly smaller when limit order traders' identifiers are concealed. These findings suggest that the limit order book is a channel for volatility information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a model of illiquidity transmission from spot to futures markets that formalizes the derivative hedge theory of Cho and Engle (1999). The model shows that spot market illiquidity does not translate one to one to the futures market but, rather, interacts with price risk, liquidity risk, and the risk aversion of the market maker. The model's predictions are tested empirically with data from the stock market and markets for single‐stock futures and index futures. The results support our model and show that the derivative hedge theory provides an explanation for the liquidity link between spot and futures markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the most extensive analysis of liquidity in the German equity market so far. We examine the evolution of liquidity over time, the determinants of liquidity, and commonality across liquidity measures and countries. We make use of a new publicly available dataset, the Market Microstructure Database Xetra (MMDB-Xetra). We find that liquidity has generally increased over time, and that in times of crisis liquidity is lower and the volatility of liquidity is significantly higher. Commonality in liquidity is highest during the financial crisis. We also find significant commonality between liquidity in the US and the German equity markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the decision to announce an open market share repurchase and the share price reaction to the announcement. We use a conditional estimation approach, which takes into account that the repurchase decision is made rationally and that, consequently, there is a potential selection bias. This approach requires a 'non‐event sample' of firms that could reasonably be expected to announce a repurchase but did not. The specific institutional rules for share repurchases in Germany allow us to construct such a sample. We find that a conditional approach yields results that are qualitatively comparable but differ in detail from those obtained using a non‐conditional approach. We confirm earlier findings of negative share price performance prior to the repurchase announcement and positive and significant announcement day abnormal returns. The results of our probit models are consistent with the free cash flow hypothesis and provide at least partial support for the rent extraction, signalling, and capital structure hypothesis. The results of the cross‐sectional regressions provide support for the signalling hypothesis once we control for selection bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Technological advances and regulatory initiatives have led to the emergence of a competitive, but fragmented, equity trading landscape in several markets around the world. While these changes have coincided with benefits like reduced transaction costs, advancements in trading technology, and access to a diverse array of execution venues, regulators and market participants have also raised concerns about the welfare implications of innovations like dark pools as well as the resulting increase in execution complexity. Exchanges are often viewed as natural monopolies due to the presence of network externalities and economies of scale. However, heterogeneity in traders' preferences means that no single venue can serve the interests of all investors. Fragmentation of the marketplace can be seen as a direct outcome of this heterogeneity. In this paper, we review the theoretical and empirical literature examining the economic arguments and motivations underlying market fragmentation, the resulting implications for liquidity and price efficiency, and the role for public policy. Beyond the concerns for equity markets, the lessons from this literature are relevant for other asset classes experiencing an increase in competition between trading venues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the dynamics of spot and futures prices in the presence of arbitrage. A partially linear error correction model is proposed where the adjustment coefficient is allowed to depend nonlinearly on the lagged price difference. The model is estimated using data on the DAX index and the DAX futures contract. We find that the adjustment is indeed nonlinear. The linear alternative is rejected. The speed of price adjustment is increasing almost monotonically with the magnitude of the price difference. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 35:371-384, 2015 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regulations in the pre-Sarbanes-Oxley era allowed corporate insiders considerable flexibility in timing their trades and engaging in stealth trading, for example, by executing several trades and reporting them jointly after the last trade. We document that even these lax reporting requirements were frequently violated and stealth trading was common. Event study abnormal returns are larger after reports of stealth trades than after reports of otherwise similar non-stealth trades. Our results imply that delayed reporting impedes the adjustment of prices to the information revealed by insider trades. They lend strong support to the more stringent reporting requirements established by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In early 2014, the European Council, the European Parliament, and the European Commission reached an agreement on MiFID II (Markets in Financial Instruments Directive) and on MiFIR (Markets in Financial Instruments Regulation). Because the new regulatory framework will significantly influence and likely reduce European over-the-counter (OTC) equities trading, our article investigates the current state of OTC trading in Europe. Therefore, we investigate OTC transaction sizes for Euro STOXX 50 constituents between January 2008 and June 2013, discuss whether and how they might have caused market impact, and give insights on how this affects the European trading landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the dynamics of liquidity in an electronic limit order book using the Exchange Liquidity Measure (XLM), a measure of the cost of a roundtrip trade of given size V. We use intraday event study methodology to analyse how liquidity shocks - large transactions and Bloomberg ticker news - affect the XLM. We find that resiliency after large transactions is high, i.e., liquidity quickly reverts to 'normal' levels. Large trades are 'timed'; they take place at times when liquidity is unusually high. Bloomberg ticker news items do not have a discernible effect on liquidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reconsiders the effect of investor sentiment on stock prices. Our main contribution is that, in addition to the intermediate term return predictability, we also analyze the immediate price reaction to the publication of survey-based investor sentiment indicators. We find that the sign of the immediate market response is the same as that of the predictability at intermediate time horizons. This is consistent with underreaction to cash flow news or with investor sentiment being related to mispricing. It is inconsistent with the alternative explanations of a rational response to cash flow news or sentiment indicators providing information about future expected returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reconsiders the issue of share price reactions to dividend announcements. We use the difference between the actual dividend and the analyst consensus forecast as obtained from I/B/E/S as a proxy for the surprise in the dividend announcement. Using data from Germany, we find significant share price reactions after dividend announcements. We use panel methods to analyze the determinants of the share price reactions and find evidence in favour of the cash flow signaling hypothesis and dividend clientele effects. We further find that the price reaction to dividend surprises is related to the ownership structure of the firm. The results do not support the free cash flow hypothesis. An additional result of our analysis is that dividend changes are not an appropriate measure to capture the information content of dividend announcements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We reconsider the issue of price discovery in spot and futures markets. We use a threshold error correction model to allow for arbitrage opportunities to have an impact on the return dynamics. We estimate the model using quote midpoints, and we modify the model to account for time-varying transaction costs. We find that (a) the futures market leads in the process of price discovery and (b) the presence of arbitrage opportunities has a strong impact on the dynamics of the price discovery process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the market quality of the Xetra BEST system operated by Deutsche Börse A G, an internalization system designed as part of an open limit order book, which guarantees a price improvement over the inside spread in the Xetra order book. We develop a structural model of this dual market environment and show that adverse selection costs of internalized trades are significantly lower than those of regular order book trades while realized spreads are significantly larger. T he cost savings of the internalizer are larger than the mandatory price improvement, suggesting that internalization can be profitable for both customer and internalizer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a new data set that comprises factor returns and returns of portfolios that are single- and double-sorted. We use this data set to perform asset-pricing tests for the German equity market. We test the standard CAPM, the Fama-French (1993) three-factor model, and the Carhart (1997) four-factor model. Our tests are based on a more comprehensive data set than are earlier studies. We investigate the sensitivity of our results to the choice of test assets. Our results indicate that none of the models can consistently explain the cross-section of returns, and that the results of asset-pricing tests are sensitive to the choice of test assets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Until October 2004, corporate insiders in Germany were required to report trades in the shares of their firm ‘without delay’. Yet in practice, substantial reporting delays were common. We show that the delays are related systematically to the characteristics of the firm. Delays are longer in firms with dispersed ownership and in firms using German accounting standards. This suggests that managers of these firms are less responsive to the informational requirements of the capital market. We further find that abnormal returns after the reporting date of an insider trade are independent of the reporting delay. This implies that prices are distorted in the period between the insider trading and the reporting date. This is a strong point in favour of regulations that require and enforce the immediate disclosure of insider trades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse transactions by corporate insiders in Germany. We find that insider trades are associated with significant abnormal returns. Insider trades that occur prior to an earnings announcement have a larger impact on prices. This result provides a rationale for the UK regulation that prohibits insiders from trading prior to earnings announcements. Both the ownership structure and the accounting standards used by the firm affect the magnitude of the price reaction. The position of the insider within the firm has no effect, which is inconsistent with the informational hierarchy hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exchanges in Europe are in a process of consolidation. After the failure of the proposed merger between Deutsche Börse and Euronext, these two groups are likely to become the nuclei for further mergers and co-operation with currently independent exchanges. A decision for one of the groups entails a decision for the respective trading platform. Against that background we evaluate the attractiveness of the two dominant continental European trading systems. Though both are anonymous electronic limit order books, there are important differences in the trading protocols. We use a matched-sample approach to compare execution costs in Euronext Paris and Xetra. We find that both quoted and effective spreads are lower in Xetra. The differences are more pronounced for less liquid stocks. When decomposing the spread we find no systematic differences in the adverse selection component. Realised spreads, on the other hand, are significantly higher in Euronext. Neither differences in the number of liquidity provision agreements nor differences in the minimum tick size or in the degree of domestic competition for order flow explain the different spread levels. We thus conclude that Xetra is the more efficient trading system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study analyses data on stock index forecasts made by private investors. The implied returns calculated from these forecasts exhibit negative skewness and excess kurtosis. Past returns have a positive impact on the implied returns, consistent with investors expecting positive momentum. Females are less optimistic than males, but their forecasts have higher standard deviation. Consistent with the weekend effect, implied returns from estimates entered on weekends are significantly lower than those entered on weekdays. Implied returns are not consistently related to the weather conditions on the day the forecast was made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using data from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange we analyze price formation and liquidity in a non-anonymous environment with similarities to the floor of the NYSE. Our main hypothesis is that the non-anonymity allows the specialist to assess the probability that a trader trades on the basis of private information. He uses this knowledge to price discriminate. This can be achieved by quoting a large spread and granting price improvement to traders deemed uninformed. Consistent with our hypothesis we find that price improvement reflects lower adverse selection costs but does not lead to a reduction in the specialist's profit. Further, the quote adjustment following transactions at the quoted bid or ask price is more pronounced than the quote adjustment after transactions at prices inside the spread. Our results indicate that anonymity comes at the cost of higher adverse selection risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a summary assessment of experimental and empirical results by focusing on a single question: How does the design of a securities market affect its performance, specifically, its transaction costs? A new method for measuring transaction costs in call markets is developed that allows a direct comparison between batched auctions (call markets) and continuous auctions. Empirical results are based on data from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The results identify an important role played by market makers (specialists) that relates to transaction costs and price variability. Experimental results provide additional insights into the importance of competitive pressure for transaction costs on market maker markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Before June 1999, Deutsche Börse AG published two parallel index values, one calculated from floor prices and the other from Xetra prices. Since 1999, Deutsche Börse has calculated the DAX blue-chip index and the MDAX mid-cap index using only the prices of the electronic trading system Xetra. This paper analyzes the quality of the two indexes empirically. The results allow us to evaluate the decision taken by Deutsche Börse AG. We find that the Xetra-DAX is superior to the floor-DAX, but that the Xetra-MDAX is inferior to the floor MDAX. Our analysis also provides insights on the relative merits of floor and screen trading systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents an abstract of the article "Information Based Stock Trading on IBIS," by Joachim Grammig, Dirk Shiereck and Eric Theissen, which discussed the results of an analysis of the differential behavior of the more actively and less frequently traded stocks. Probability of information events of the more actively traded stocks; Period wherein a greater rate of informed and uninformed traders enter the market.