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The mantra that policy and management should be ‘evidence-based’ is well established. Less so are the implications that follow from ‘evidence’ being predictions of the future (forecasts, scenarios, horizons) even though such futures define the actions taken today to make the future sustainable. Here, we consider the tension between ‘evidence’, reliable because it is observed, and predictions of the future, unobservable in conventional terms. For flood risk management in England and Wales, we show that futures are actively constituted, and so imagined, through ‘suites of practices’ entwining policy, management and scientific analysis. Management has to constrain analysis because of the many ways in which flood futures can be constructed, but also because of commitment to an accounting calculus, which requires risk to be expressed in monetary terms. It is grounded in numerical simulation, undertaken by scientific consultants who follow policy/management guidelines that define the futures to be considered. Historical evidence is needed to deal with process and parameter uncertainties and the futures imagined are tied to pasts experienced. Reliance on past events is a challenge for prediction, given changing probability (e.g. climate change) and consequence (e.g. development on floodplains). So, risk management allows some elements of risk analysis to become unstable (notably in relation to climate change) but forces others to remain stable (e.g. invoking regulation to prevent inappropriate floodplain development). We conclude that the assumed separation of risk assessment and management is false because the risk calculation has to be defined by management. Making this process accountable requires openness about the procedures that make flood risk analysis more (or less) reliable to those we entrust to produce and act upon them such that, unlike the ‘pseudosciences’, they can be put to the test of public interrogation by those who have to live with their consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The presence of ?ne sediment in river gravels is widely recognized as being detrimental to salmonid habitat quality. In order to facilitate quanti?cation of sand presence at larger scales, this paper presents an application of image processing allowing for rapid and accurate assessments of super?cial sand presence in dry exposed ?uvial gravels. Images for the process are acquired with a 35 mm SLR ?lm camera and then scanned with a desktop scanner. Texture-based segmentation is then applied to differentiate between sand and clast areas. Results show that the method is accurate and therefore it offers an alternative to bulk sampling in cases where rapid assessments of sand presence are required. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]