Search

Wang, P.; Royer, E.L.; Jackson, K., and Gutierrez, S., 2024. Impacts of Hurricane Ian along the low-lying southwest Florida coast (USA) in 2022: Lessons learned. Journal of Coastal Research, 40(5), 827–851. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208. Hurricane Ian made landfall in the low-lying, densely populated, and developed southwestern Florida coast on 28 September 2022 as a large and slow-moving category 4 hurricane. Various U.S. federal and state agencies collected a large and comprehensive data set, including pre- and poststorm airborne LIDAR topography, in situ water level and wave measurements at numerous locations before, during, and after the storm, and poststorm high-water marks over a large area. This study reports results from a series of poststorm field investigations including ground observations of beach-dune erosion and deposition, catastrophic damage to various infrastructure, and widespread distribution of non-biodegradable materials washed into the estuary and numerous mangrove islands. Hurricane Ian induced large-scale inundation in low-lying southwest Florida, submerging all the barrier islands bordering Charlotte Harbor estuary, all the islands within the estuary, and up to 5 km into the mainland. Dense tree-type vegetation limited the landward penetration of beach-dune erosion and overwash deposition along the barrier islands. Net sand-volume loss from the beach-dune system ranged 10–25 m3/m and was controlled by the deep submergence of the system during the peak of the storm. The extremely high storm surge of up to 5.2 m above mean sea level generated by Hurricane Ian caused severe damage to the built environments over a large area. High storm waves superimposed on the elevated water level, reaching 1.2 m at the seaward edge of vegetated dunes, contributed to the destruction along the barrier islands. Hurricane Ian distributed a tremendous amount of non-biodegradable artificial debris over a large area and into sensitive natural environments, including numerous mangrove islands, barrier-island interior wetlands, and the estuary waterbody. Measures to prevent materials such as single-use plastics, insulation fibers, and household appliances from being washed into sensitive environments should be a significant part of prestorm preparation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cyclonic storms (i.e., hurricanes) are powerful disturbance events that often cause widespread forest damage. Storm‐related canopy damage reduces rainfall interception and evapotranspiration, but impacts on streamflow regimes are poorly understood. We quantify streamflow changes in Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria in September 2017, and evaluate whether forest cover and storm‐related canopy damage account for the differences. Streams are particularly vulnerable to flooding in early post‐disturbance stages during hurricane season, so we focus on 3 months (Oct–Dec) following the hurricane. To discern changes in rainfall responses, we partitioned streamflow into baseflow and quickflow using a digital filter. We collected 2010–2017 streamflow and rainfall data from 18 watersheds and compared the relative magnitude of post‐ to pre‐hurricane double mass curve slopes of baseflow and quickflow volumes against rainfall. Several watersheds displayed higher post‐hurricane quickflow and baseflow, however, the response was variable. The magnitude of quickflow increase was greater in watersheds with high forest damage. Under the same level of relative damage, watersheds with low initial forest cover had greater quickflow increases than highly forested ones. Conversely, baseflow generally increased, but increases were greater in highly forested watersheds and smaller in highly damaged watersheds. These results suggest that post‐storm baseflow increases were due to recharge of hurricane‐related rainfall, as well as forest transpiration interruption and soil disturbance enhancing recharge of post‐hurricane rainfall, while increases to quickflow are related to loss of canopy rainfall interception and higher soil saturation decreasing infiltration. Our research demonstrates that forest damage from disturbance lowers quickflow and elevates baseflow in highly forested watersheds, and elevates quickflow and lowers baseflow in less‐forested watersheds. Less‐forested watersheds may be closer to the forest cover loss threshold needed to elicit a streamflow response following disturbance, suggesting higher flooding potential downstream, and a lower storm‐related forest disturbance threshold than in heavily forested watersheds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detailed information on coastal storm impacts is crucial to evaluate the degree of damages caused by floods, implementing effective recovery actions for risk prevention and preparedness, and to design appropriate coastal zone management plans. This article presents a new database containing information on extreme storm events that generated damage and flooding along European coastlines between 2010 and 2020. The storm events, associated with specific locations, define the test cases which are then used to retrieve information from different extreme coastal storms that hit the same area. The database is a workbook that collects items organised in worksheets and constitutes an inventory of resources defined as a collection of different types of information used to characterize the event (i.e., hydrodynamics, weather information) and its consequences (impacts, flood extent, etc.). The guidelines and polygons in GeoJSON format that define the domain of the sites are also provided together with the workbook. The database contains 11 coastal storm events, 26 sites, 28 test cases, and 232 resources and is designed to allow the addition of new events and resources. Descriptive statistical analyses were performed to define the types and topics addressed by the resources and the distribution of types of resources per country. Lastly, an example of application of the database to European-scale flood modelling is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adverse weather conditions from acute events (e.g., storms causing lodging, flooding, or hail) or short‐duration weather patterns (i.e., periods of cold events; extended waterlogged field conditions) can result in yield losses, though management practices may play key roles in aiding with crop recovery or avoidance of these stress events. This review summarizes current knowledge (with emphasis placed on the US Midwest) related to corn response to short‐term weather stresses of (i) cold temperature, (ii) excess water, (iii) hail/defoliation damage, and (iv) wind damage. Each section presents summaries of how corn growth and yield are affected, provides context into past events experienced, identifies agronomic or production recommendations to correct or alleviate the stress condition, and proposes areas where future research is needed. This review also highlights challenges associated with controlled simulation work on these stressors, and also identifies key areas to expand future research efforts. In general, yield losses associated with strong storms and short‐term weather events often ranged from 5% to 35%, but extreme cases could result in up to 80%–100% yield loss. Much of the literature on these topics was published prior to 1995, though it still forms the basis for modern agronomic guidance, which is problematic given the changes in agriculture in the last 20 years in management practices, available genetics and technologies, and changing environmental conditions. Revisiting these foundational studies and expanding them to examine current and future weather conditions are critical for better informing agronomic recommendations, for devising mitigation strategies, and for determining accurate yield loss expectations following these stresses. Core Ideas: Climatic shifts are resulting in more frequent strong storms and adverse weather for corn.Storms and weather stress reduce corn yield 5%–35%, though greater losses are possible.Foundational knowledge produced prior to 1995 should be re‐assessed to ensure accuracy in modern systems.Updating agronomic recommendations with modern technology is critical to ensure crop security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Barrier islands span 10% of the world's coastlines and dominate along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts in the USA routinely exposed to storm surge. These islands serve as buffers between the open coast and the mainland, and protect the mainland from storm damage. During storms, significant morphological change can occur, including substantial erosion of the islands' vegetated dunes. In this study, the focus is on the influence of belowground biomass – namely dune plant roots – and dune topographic characteristics on barrier-island erosion during storms. The numerical model XBeach was employed to simulate storm-induced sediment transport. A parameter study was conducted by varying distance from the shoreline to the dune, dune shape, sediment grain size, and sediment mobility as an analogue for biomass. The influence of individual parameters and the collective impact of parameters were analyzed. The results help improve our knowledge of barrier island dynamics and lay a solid groundwork for future investigations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The proton radiation belt contains high fluxes of adiabatically trapped protons varying in energy from ~one to hundreds of megaelectron volts (MeV). At large radial distances, magnetospheric field lines become stretched on the nightside of Earth and exhibit a small radius of curvature RC near the equator. This leads protons to undergo field line curvature (FLC) scattering, whereby changes to the first adiabatic invariant accumulate as field strength becomes nonuniform across a gyroorbit. The outer boundary of the proton belt at a given energy corresponds to the range of magnetic L shell over which this transition to nonadiabatic motion takes place, and is sensitive to the occurrence of geomagnetic storms. In this work, we first find expressions for nightside equatorial RC and field strength Be as functions of Dst and L* to fit the TS04 field model. We then apply the Tu et al. (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014ja019864) condition for nonadiabatic onset to solve the outer boundary L*, and refine our expression for RC to achieve agreement with Van Allen Probes observations of 1-50 MeV proton flux over the 2014-2018 era. Finally, we implement this nonadiabatic onset condition into the British Antarctic Survey proton belt model (BAS-PRO) to solve the temporal evolution of proton fluxes at L ≤ 4. Compared with observations, BAS-PRO reproduces storm losses due to FLC scattering, but there is a discrepancy in mid-2017 that suggests a ~5 MeV proton source not accounted for. Our work sheds light on outer zone proton belt variability at 1-10 MeV and demonstrates a useful tool for real-time forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Addressing human-made environmental problems such as deforestation is an ongoing educational challenge. Promising educational approaches include cooperative decision-making and attempt via a high level of motivation to promote pro-environmental behaviors. Knowledge about the forest ecosystem, including its threats, is supposed to strengthen responsibilities and individual behavioral preferences. The "Save the Forests!" module engages students in hands-on learning activities under the frame of an educational Escape Game (Edu Breakout). Based on nine workstations, it includes various cooperative activities focusing on the forest ecosystem, its ecosystem services, and common tree species. Students realize advantages of recycling, gain insight into paper production and associated resource consumption, compare eco-labels for sustainable paper products, and reflect on consumer decisions. Additionally, the students learn about habitat situations after clear-cutting, forest fires, or storm damages (succession), including strategies for dealing with deadwood based on scientific data. Besides experiments and challenging tasks, students learn about the ecological footprint and greenwashing by clarifying often-used terms in sustainability contexts. In an accompanied quantitative study approach, students participating in the learning module significantly increased their knowledge scores in a pre-post comparison (n = 135, p < 0.001, d = 0.58). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The floodplains of the Southeast's stream network once hosted immense brakes of rivercane (Arundinaria gigantea), a disturbance-dependent native bamboo with both cultural and ecological significance. Ecologically, rivercane alters its local environments, boosts biodiversity and biomass, and protects streambanks from erosion and storm damage. Indigenous peoples of the Southeast have used rivercane for millennia, for material and cultural purposes, and formerly maintained its health and extent through harvesting and fire. Settler-colonial incursions largely destroyed rivercane, through the more intense disturbance of different land management practices, and brakes now exist mainly in relatively small areas. While numerous rivercane restoration projects are in process throughout its natural range, no comprehensive inventory of living rivercane exists. In this paper, we present both human context and the results of LiDAR analysis that identifies canebrakes based on the physical characteristics of the plant and brake. In our study area on the Little Tennessee River in western North Carolina, we found rivercane on about 9 percent of the floodplain area, based on QL1 LiDAR data available from the state of North Carolina. The technique can be applied in any part of rivercane's range, and the resulting inventory used in support of both cultural and ecological goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strong winter wind storms can lead to billions in forestry losses, disrupt train services and amount to millions of Euro spend on vegetation management alongside the German railway system. Therefore, understanding the link between tree fall and wind is crucial. Existing tree fall studies often emphasize tree and soil factors more than meteorology. Using a dataset from Deutsche Bahn (2017–2021) and meteorological data from ERA5 reanalysis and RADOLAN radar, we employed stepwise model selection to build a logistic regression model predicting the risk of a tree falling on a railway line in a 31 km grid cell. While daily maximum gust speed is the strongest risk factor, we also found that daily duration of strong wind speeds, precipitation, soil water volume, air density and the precipitation sum of the previous year increase tree fall risk. A high daily gust factor decreases the risk. Using interaction terms between maximum gust speed and duration of strong wind speeds as well as gust factor improves the model performance. Therefore, our findings suggest that high and prolonged wind speeds, especially in combination with wet conditions (high precipitation and high soil moisture) and a high air density, increase tree fall risk. Incorporating meteorological parameters linked to local climatological conditions (through anomalies or in relation to local percentiles) improved the model accuracy. This indicates the importance of taking tree adaptation to the environment into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi‐year and multi‐site demographic data for rare plants allow researchers to observe threats and project population growth rates and thus long‐term persistence of the species, generating knowledge, which allows for effective conservation planning. Demographic studies across more than a decade are extremely rare but allow for the effects of threats to be observed and assessed within the context of interannual environmental variation. We collected demographic data on the Threatened plant Cirsium pitcheri in two sites from 2011–2022. These sites were chosen because one exhibited the presence of non‐native seed predators while the other did not, and we hypothesized that we would see declines and potentially extinction of the population threatened by predation. Over the course of our study, we observed additional threats, such as human trampling and high lake levels, which led to significant erosion, sand burial, and storm damage to plants. We find high interannual variation in vital rates and population growth rates for both populations, which mask the overall effects of predation. We observed dramatic declines in plant survivorship and population growth rates in both sites in the years with high lake levels. We conclude that high lake levels, which are expected to become more frequent with climate change, pose a significant threat to all near‐shore populations of C. pitcheri. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Windthrow is a phenomenon that causes major changes to tree stand evolution by blowing down or breaking either isolated trees or entire tree stands, with a strong ecological, social and economic impact. Both scattered and large-scale windthrow occurred in spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) tree stands of Romania. They affected surfaces of various dimensions from harvestable forests. Such a phenomenon took place in the Curvature Carpathians in February 2020. Large-scale windthrow occurred in this area in 1995 as well, in the upper watershed of Bâsca river. Using the climate data from February 2020, this paper aims to identify the manner in which factors such as climate and site conditions together with tree stand characteristic and the anthropogenic factor impacted and influenced the occurrence of windthrow. The results showed that the intensity of this phenomenon had maximum effects when the wind coming from north/northeast reached the maximum speed of 32 m·s−1. Pure spruce tree stands situated on slopes with an inclination between 16 and 30° were mainly affected. Their position was counter to the wind direction, at an altitude between 1300 and 1500 m, on cambisols and spodosols. The analysis and statistical interpretation of data in the case of scattered and large-scale windthrow from the two management units showed that the same factors studied influence the variation of windthrow intensity in a different manner, or sometimes they do not influence it at all or they can only account for a small part of this variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cyclone Idai in 2019 was one of the worst tropical cyclones recorded in the Southern Hemisphere. The storm caused catastrophic damage and led to a humanitarian crisis in Mozambique. The affected population suffered a cholera epidemic on top of housing and infrastructure damage and loss of life. The housing and infrastructure damage sustained during Cyclone Idai still has not been addressed in all affected communities. This is of grave concern because storm damage results in poor housing conditions which are known to increase the risk of malaria. Mozambique has the 4th highest malaria prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa and is struggling to control malaria in most of the country. We conducted a community-based cross-sectional survey in Sussundenga Village, Manica Province, Mozambique in December 2019-February 2020. We found that most participants (64%) lived in households that sustained damage during Cyclone Idai. The overall malaria prevalence was 31% measured by rapid diagnostic test (RDT). When controlling for confounding variables, the odds of malaria infection was nearly threefold higher in participants who lived in households damaged by Cyclone Idai nearly a year after the storm. This highlights the need for long-term disaster response to improve the efficiency and success of malaria control efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Finland, wind-induced forest damage is expected to increase in the future. Demand exists for timely and precise first-hand information about the main impact area of windstorms. Locating potential damage areas quickly is essential for effective operational planning of salvage loggings, aiming to reduce monetary losses of timber and risk for secondary damage caused by insects. This study presents an approach for mapping the potential damage areas immediately after a windstorm, by using high-resolution forest vulnerability data and information on the spatial distribution of maximum wind gust speed derived from weather station observations using kriging with external drift interpolation. The new method is evaluated by analyzing damage caused by nine major windstorms of the 2010s in Finland. Our results show that including roughness length information as an auxiliary variable in the interpolation improved the results and produced wind maps with more plausible structure and better separation between forested and non-forested land areas. The forest vulnerability data were most strongly linked to damage, whilst wind gust speed had weaker results. However, for future storms with unknown damage areas, we consider maximum wind gust speed still essential for defining the main impact area, whereas forest vulnerability data could then be used for more detailed damage predictions. Further advancements of wind interpolation approaches, preferably towards higher resolution and, if possible, based on a denser and more diverse observation network, is needed to fully exploit the potential of combined wind and forest vulnerability data. Albeit we recognize multiple uncertainties, room for improvements and benefits that additional data sources would bring, our study demonstrates a simple approach for rapid mapping of potential forest wind damage areas, which could be further developed into an operational tool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Barrier islands are vital dynamic landforms that not only host ecological resources but often protect coastal ecosystems from storm damage. The Waisanding Barrier (WSDB) in Taiwan has suffered from continuous beach erosion in recent decades. In this study, we developed a SiamUnet network compared to three basic DeepUnet networks with different image sizes to effectively detect barrier waterlines from 207 high-resolution satellite images. The evolution of the barrier waterline shape is obtained to present two special morphologic changes at the southern end and the evolution of the entire waterline. The time periods of separation of the southern end from the main WSDB are determined and discussed. We also show that the southern L-shaped end has occurred recently from the end of 2017 until 2021. The length of the L-shaped end gradually decreases during the summer, but gradually increases during the winter. The L-shaped end obviously has a seasonal and jagged change. The attenuation rate of the land area is analyzed as −0.344 km2/year. We also explore two factors that affect the analysis results, which are the number of valid images selected and the deviation threshold from the mean sea level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclones (TCs) pose a significant threat in terms of wind-induced damage and storm risk to the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) of China. In this research, annual power dissipation index (PDI) and storm surge and wave destructive potential (SDP) index from June to November were used to estimate the damage caused by the TC events in the buffer zone of the GBA. The regime shifts in 1993 and 2013 were identified through the Bayesian changepoint detection in six TC datasets. The TC-induced damage during 1994–2012 (the low-damage period) was weaker than that in 1977–1993 and 2013–2020 (the high-damage periods). The intensity and size of stronger TCs are the dominant factors responsible for the interdecadal changes in the TC damage. This may be explained by the influences of sea surface temperature (SST), surface latent heat flux and mid-level relative humidity. During high-damage periods, TCs can extract more energy from the ocean, leading to increased TC intensity and larger size. Conversely, during low-damage periods, TCs undergo a decrease in energy intake, resulting in reduced TC power and smaller size. The variations in the SST are relative to the Luzon Strait transport. In addition, the reduction in TC translation speed is unfavorable for the development of TCs in low-damage periods. Further research suggested that mid-level steering flow affects the TC movement velocity. The results offer valuable insights into the variations in the TC-induced damage in the GBA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Winter storms pose a major threat to forest management in Central Europe. They affect forests at a large spatial scale and produce large losses in standing and merchantable timber within few hours. The assessment of winter storm vulnerability by statistical modelling serves as an important tool to tackle uncertainities about the damage risk and to inform management decision processes. This study made use of an extensive forest inventory data set from South-West Germany before and after winter storm Lothar in 1999, one of the most severe storm events in Germany over the last decades. Hierarchical logistic models were fitted to relate storm damage probability on individual tree level to features of dendrometry, site, orography, and storm-specific high resolution data of maximum gust speed. We developed two different approaches to implement gust speed as a predictor and compared them to a baseline model with a structured spatial effect function with no gust speed information. Regional and local variability which could not be described by the predictors was modelled by multi-level group effects. Generalisation performance was tested with a spatially and temporally independent data set on storm separation between explicit spatial gust speeds and unknown variability achieved with the parametric multi-level approach led to a higher degree of transparency and utilisability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A brain-death-induced cytokine storm damages organs in an organ donor. However, a longer time period between declaration of brain death and organ procurement (procurement interval) is associated with improved outcomes in kidney, liver, heart, and lung transplantation. The aim of this study was to find the optimal procurement interval for pancreas transplantation. Association of procurement interval with pancreas graft outcomes was analyzed using multivariable models adjusted for variables possibly affecting procurement interval and outcomes. Altogether 10,119 pancreas transplantations were included from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients. The median follow-up was 3.2 (IQR 1.01–6.50) years. During the first year, 832 (9.0%) grafts were lost, including 555 (6.0%) within the first 30 days. Longer procurement interval was associated with increased death-censored graft survival in a multivariable model (HR 0.944 95% CI 0.917–0.972, per 10-h increase, p < 0.001). A decreasing hazard of graft loss was observed also with 1-year, but not with 30-day graft survival. During 1-year follow-up, 953 (12.1%) patients had an acute rejection, and longer procurement interval was also associated with less acute rejections (OR 0.937 95% CI 0.900–0.976, per 10-h increase, p = 0.002) in the multivariable model. In conclusion, longer procurement interval is associated with improved long-term outcomes in pancreas transplantation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence has been provided that land‐cover changes such as deforestation can have an impact on cloudiness and precipitation. However, conflicting results have been obtained at different scales and places, highlighting our poor understanding of the physical processes involved. Here we focus on mesoscale summer cloudiness in a temperate region, as influenced by a large forest massif (the Landes forest in France). Our study is based on an up‐to‐date atmosphere‐surface mesoscale model (Meso‐NH coupled with SURFEX). Based on observational data, we first optimize the model configuration for our purpose, and show that with a 500 m horizontal resolution we can successfully simulate the higher summer cloud cover observed over the forest, compared to its surroundings. Second, we investigate the physical processes leading to cloud formation in a representative case study. Based on a comparative analysis of diagnostics and budgets over forest and non‐forest areas, we find that the larger sensible heat flux over the forest and its higher roughness are the main drivers of cloudiness, enhancing vertical velocity and boundary‐layer mixing. Third, we simulate the impact of the 2009 Klaus storm that led to the loss of about one third of the trees. Considering 15 representative convective summer days, we show that the model simulates well the resulting decrease in summer cloudiness that was reported in a previous study based on satellite observations. As a complementary tool, the mesoscale simulations allow to quantify the impacts of the Klaus storm windthrow on the diurnal cycle of the boundary layer. Plain Language Summary: Previous studies have shown that land‐cover changes such as deforestation can have an impact on cloud cover and precipitation. But the results can be contradictory depending on the region of the world studied. Here, we focus on the temperate Landes forest in southwest France, during the summer period with boundary‐layer clouds. The surface and the atmosphere are represented by two coupled models operating at a 500 m horizontal resolution. We show that, when properly configured, the system can represent boundary‐layer clouds forming over the forest. We then investigate the link between the forest and the generated clouds, highlighting the prominent role of the larger sensible heat flux and roughness over forested areas. These key factors generate vertical motions and mixing that enable cloud formation. Finally, the damage caused by Klaus storm, which destroyed a third of the Landes forest in 2009, is considered. Fifteen summer days with clouds over the Landes are simulated and show that the damage leads to a decrease in cloudiness, in agreement with the results of a previous study based on satellite image analysis. At the regional scale, recent models can thus be used to study and quantify the impact of deforestation on cloudiness. Key Points: A mesoscale model successfully simulates cloud enhancement by a temperate forest and provides realistic cloud fields at hectometric resolutionA comparison of the physical processes over forested and non‐forested areas shows that sensible heat flux and surface roughness are the key drivers of cloudinessThe model helps to understand and quantify the substantial decrease in forest‐induced cloudiness that was observed after storm Klaus [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estuaries around the world are facing numerous threats, including urbanization, industrialization, resource scarcity, and the impacts of climate change. To increase estuarine resilience, it is crucial to manage these ecosystems to maintain their functionality. Sediment transport resilience is a critical factor that affects the performance objectives of navigation, storm damage reduction, and ecosystem restoration. This paper focuses on an integrated resilient sediment transport risk management (IRSTRIM) approach for estuaries. The framework quantifies resilience indexes such as reaction amplitude, graduality, and recovery rates of "sediment transport" to "river and sea interaction" in the Arvand Estuary, the Persian Gulf. Additionally, three indexes, the tidal asymmetry index (TAI), saltwater intrusion vulnerability index, and infill rate, are developed to aid in resilient sediment management. The quantified indexes successfully incorporated tidal asymmetry, sediment characteristics, bed properties, and flow hydrodynamics. Different resilience and resistance management scenarios are evaluated using a decision support system. Based on the results, tidal barrier application, as a resilience scenario, is the best scenario, and the dredging scenario, as a resistance one, is the worst scenario. The reaction amplitude with a weight of 0.39, and the TAI with a weight of 0.27 are determined as the most effective indexes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme winds are by far the largest contributor to Norway's insurance claims related to natural hazards. The predictive skills of four different damage functions are assessed for Norway at the municipality and national levels on daily and annual temporal scales using municipality level insurance data and the high-resolution Norwegian reanalysis (NORA3) wind speed data for the period 1985-2020. Special attention is given to extreme damaging events and occurrence probabilities of wind speed induced damages. Because of the complex topography of Norway and the resulting high heterogeneity of the population density the wind speed is weighted with population. The largest per-capita losses and severe damages occur most frequently in the western municipalities of Norway whilst there are seldom any large losses further inland. The good agreement between the observed and estimated losses at municipality and national levels suggests that the damage functions used in this study are well suited for estimating severe wind storm-induced damages. Furthermore' the damage functions are able to successfully reconstruct the geographical pattern of losses caused by extreme windstorms with a high degree of correlation. From event occurrence probabilities' the present study devises a damage classifier that distinguishes between daily damaging and non-damaging events at the municipality level. While large loss events are well captured' the skewness and zero-inflation of the loss data greatly reduces the quality of both the damage functions and the classifier for moderate and weak loss events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind and windstorms cause severe damage to natural and human-made environments. Thus, wind-related risk assessment is vital for the preparation and mitigation of calamities. However, the cascade of events leading to damage depends on many factors that are environment-specific and the available methods to address wind-related damage often require sophisticated analysis and specialization. Fortunately, simple indices and thresholds are as effective as complex mechanistic models for many applications. Nonetheless, the multitude of indices and thresholds available requires a careful selection process according to the target sector. Here, we first provide a basic background on wind and storm formation and characteristics, followed by a comprehensive collection of both indices and thresholds that can be used to predict the occurrence and magnitude of wind and storm damage. We focused on five key sectors: forests, urban areas, transport, agriculture and wind-based energy production. For each sector we described indices and thresholds relating to physical properties such as topography and land cover but also to economic aspects (e.g. disruptions in transportation or energy production). In the face of increased climatic variability, the promotion of more effective analysis of wind and storm damage could reduce the impact on society and the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Key message: By calibrating and validating a forest growth model for seven species in Germany and coupling it with a wind damage simulator, we specifically estimated the impact of wind damage on the net present value of Norway spruce and European beech in mixture and monoculture. Under risk, the net present value of spruce managements saw the sharpest declines, although the highest end net present value was still obtained through a heavily thinned spruce monoculture. Context: Wind damage is one of the most important risks to Central European forests, and adaptation measures are essential. Aim: Adaptive management strategies should simultaneously account for forest production and wind risk. We simulated the effect of adaptive measures on wind-risk in German forests. Methods: A process-based forest growth model, "3-PG Mix", was recalibrated and coupled with the storm damage risk model "Lothar". We investigated the effect of thinning regimes on wind risk in monoculture and mixed species stands. The net present value of the simulated regimes was calculated and compared (risk vs. no risk). Results: Spruce regimes achieved the highest net present values when risk was not considered. Considering risk in spruce and beech mixtures and monoculture, all regimes reached values below 3000 € ha−1 by year 120. The exception was a heavily thinned spruce monoculture at 4507 € ha−1, being the most profitable regime under risk. Conclusion: We conclude, on the basis of this modelling study, that heavy thinning reduced storm risk and maintained a higher net present value in spruce. Species mixture of beech and spruce saw net present values levels remain more constant under risk, while beech monoculture increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Persons with disabilities may face longer disaster recovery trajectories, despite federal mandates for equal access and reasonable accommodations in disaster recovery services. The longer recovery trajectories for persons with disabilities may be mitigated with better access to federal disaster assistance. This study evaluated whether disaster assistance applicants with special accommodations requests were more likely to experience denials in Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) assistance eligibility after Hurricane Harvey. The author relied on FEMA's Individuals and Households Program (IHP) registrant data. The analysis found that applicants requesting special accommodations were less likely to be denied eligibility than nonrequesting applicants, controlling for storm damage, income, and flood insurance [odds ratio (OR) 0.57; 95% CI=0.51–0.63 ]. However, communities with a higher prevalence of total disabilities had a slight but statistically lower probability of special accommodations requests as a proportion of total FEMA applications. At the zip code level, a 1% increase in US Census total disability was associated with a 0.11% decrease in the percent of special accommodation requests, holding factors such as levels of Harvey-related damage, poverty, population density, and race/ethnicity constant (beta=−0.11 ; p-value=0.04). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe damage and losses during extreme marine events are the primary hindrance for the development of offshore cage culture. Fatigue rupture subject to cyclic wave loads is the major failure mechanism of HDPE sea cages. The internal stress generated by hydrodynamic loads could be much lower than the material yield strength but results in anisotropic cumulative damage. Present work explores structural vulnerability of sea cage to storm waves by theoretical analysis, hydro-elastic modeling, storm wave simulation, and post-disaster damage validation. The collar stress, tension of net pen, and mooring line are correlated to the ambient wave height and have direct implications for the required fatigue loading cycles with respect to given material strength. The flotation collar pipe was identified as the most fragile component with the lowest fatigue thresholds. The stress reaching 73% and 62% of ultimate rupture strength corresponds to the probable structural failure within 8–16 min and 1–3 h during a typhoon event. Degradation of HDPE due to oscillations, oxidation, and bio-erosion causes acute decrease in its status quo strength with increase in service time. Most of the typical circular fish cages deployed along China's coastline may not withstand a storm with 4–5 m significant wave height, which is quite lower than the manufacture standard. This study provides a practical methodology to predict storm damage risk for mariculture or other coastal ocean facilities subject to cyclic hydrodynamic loads before preventive measures should be taken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The February 2014 extratropical cyclonic storm chain, which impacted the English Channel (UK) and Dawlish in particular, caused significant damage to the main railway connecting the south-west region to the rest of the UK. The incident caused the line to be closed for two months, £50 million of damage and an estimated £1.2bn of economic loss. In this study, we collate eyewitness accounts, analyse sea level data and conduct numerical modelling in order to decipher the destructive forces of the storm. Our analysis reveals that the disaster management of the event was successful and efficient with immediate actions taken to save lives and property before and during the storm. Wave buoy analysis showed that a complex triple peak sea state with periods at 4–8, 8–12 and 20–25 s was present, while tide gauge records indicated that significant surge of up to 0.8 m and wave components of up to 1.5 m amplitude combined as likely contributing factors in the event. Significant impulsive wave force of up to 286 KN was the most likely initiating cause of the damage. Reflections off the vertical wall caused constructive interference of the wave amplitudes that led to increased wave height and significant overtopping of up to 16.1 m3/s/m (per metre width of wall). With this information and our engineering judgement, we conclude that the most probable sequence of multi-hazard cascading failure during this incident was: wave impact force leading to masonry failure, loss of infill and failure of the structure following successive tides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Live coral cover has declined precipitously on Caribbean reefs in recent decades. Acropora cervicornis coral has been particularly decimated, and few Western Atlantic Acropora spp. refugia remain. Coral Gardens, Belize, was identified in 2020 as a long-term refugium for this species. This study assesses changes in live A. cervicornis coral abundance over time at Coral Gardens to monitor the stability of A. cervicornis corals, and to explore potential threats to this important refugium. Live coral cover was documented annually from 2012–2019 along five permanent transects. In situ sea-surface temperature data were collected at Coral Gardens throughout the study period and compared with calibrated satellite data to calculate Maximum Monthly Mean (MMM) temperatures and Degree Heating Weeks (DHW). Data on bathymetry, sediment, substrate, herbivore abundance, and macroalgal abundance were collected in 2014 and 2019 to assess potential threats to Coral Gardens. Live coral cover declined at all five transect sites over the study period. The greatest loss of live coral occurred between 2016 and 2017, coincident with the earliest and highest maximum average temperatures recorded at the study site, and the passage of a hurricane in 2016. Structural storm damage was not observed at Coral Gardens, though live coral cover declined after the passage of the storm. Uranium-thorium (230Th) dating of 26 dead in situ fragments of A. cervicornis collected in 2015 from Coral Gardens revealed no correlation between coral mortality and tropical storms and hurricanes in the recent past. Our data suggest that several other common drivers for coral decline (i.e. herbivory, predation, sedimentation, pH) may likely be ruled out for Coral Gardens. At the end of the study period, Coral Gardens satisfied most criteria for refugium status. However, the early onset, higher mean, and longer duration of above-average temperatures, as well as intermittent temperature anomalies likely played a critical role in the stability of this refugium. We suggest that temperature stress in 2016 and perhaps 2015 may have increased coral tissue vulnerability at Coral Gardens to a passing hurricane, threatening the status of this unique refugium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydroelectricity power source as one of the reliable and renewable energy. In India around 12% of electricity production contributed by hydropower. Due to rapid increase in urbanization, global warming and oil crisis increases. For this need advanced renewable energy extraction technique to meet the global demand. Nowadays at transportation sector electrical vehicles enter to market more and more. To meet the power demand open canals water turbine provides a major contribution locally. Open canals water turbine not require high civil structural work, it can be installed with small modification of existing infrastructure. This turbine installed in open canals and safer from any flood or storm damage condition. Thus, research aims at designing a hydrokinetic turbine applicable to zero head and low velocity flow water bodies such as canals. Open canals water turbine CFD simulation has been performed to predict the flow pattern of water. Additionally power was generated from the optimized design model in lab conditions (Ogee weir channel) wherein the flow velocity was less ranging from 0.02-0.05m/s and the turbine rotated within a range of 14-16 rpm. With further consideration in design and implementation gear box higher power can be achieved when implemented on a large canal’s or channels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate whether disasters can lead to innovation. We construct a US county-level panel of hurricane damages using climate data, hurricane tracks, and a wind field model and match these to patent applications by the location of their inventor over the last century in the United States. We examine both general innovation and patents that explicitly mention the terms 'hurricane' or 'storm.' In line with the current literature that hypothesizes innovative activity driven by shocks, in particular innovation intended to mitigate future shocks, we find that hurricanes lead to temporary boost in damage-mitigating patents a few years after the event. However, we also show there is long-term, lasting over two decades, general reduction of innovation after a damaging storm. We conclude that hurricanes, and possibly other types of disasters, cannot be viewed as a 'benefit in disguise,' and that these events are unlikely to generate longer-term beneficial dynamics in an adversely affected location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change research on fisheries is often focused on changes in species abundance and distribution, yet the impacts of severe weather events are also important. Climate models indicate that storm frequency and intensity may increase in the North Atlantic; however, uncertainties remain and consequences in Iceland are not well studied. This research represents a first attempt to understand local to regional implications of storminess on Icelandic fisheries industries. Using an interdisciplinary approach, the analysis (1) provides regional future wind speed projections in Iceland and surroundings under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 3–7.0 scenario, (2) documents current local experiences using exploratory interviews with various stakeholders in fisheries and aquaculture, and (3) explores research priorities for understanding climate-change adaptations in coastal communities. Projections show that whereas areas of the west, south, and east of Iceland may experience fewer storm days, the region north/northeast of Iceland features an increase in storm days. Potential adaptations include a flexible management system that does not punish fishers for lost time due to bad weather, cooperative market arrangements among sectors, and job security considerations for fishers and fish processing workers. Future projections are needed for other variables such as precipitation, and future socioeconomic studies should address the predictions and impacts of storminess. Using a state-of-the-art climate model, this study suggests that wind speed will increase north of Iceland, whereas the south will be calmer in the future under the SSP3–7.0 emission scenario. Impacts of storm events on fisheries including infrastructure damage, personal safety, land-based transportation disruptions, or temporary income losses can have disproportionate impacts on small-scale operations and rural communities. Future climate model research should focus on assessing changes in the most extreme storms, wind direction, and precipitation over land, as well as evaluating the robustness of results across different climate models. Future socioeconomic adaptation research should focus on the combined impacts of fish stock movements and changing weather conditions, and regional variations across Iceland as some areas are projected to be calmer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research about the broad range of ecological, social, and economic benefits urban forests provide communities trees has expanded significantly and helped provide justification for protecting and enhancing urban forests. However, an empirical understanding of risks and liabilities is limited despite an abundance of risk research in other disciplines. Employing Alabama as a case study, this research examined municipal employees' perceptions of factors, including legal liability, influencing actions towards urban tree risk mitigation. Qualitative interviews revealed attitudes and practices regarding municipal responsibility towards public tree management. Cities were unlikely to implement risk assessments to provide a foundation for tree maintenance. As a result, there was limited adaptive and integrative governance to handle risk in the community forest. Results are implicated in the broader narrative of community sustainability and resilience, particularly management of complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity of urban forest risk and benefits. Study Implications: Large-population cities were equipped to address tree maintenance, implement best management practices, and focus on preventative risk management. However, all cities were limited in capacity to conduct comprehensive tree risk assessments and communicate with residents about proper tree selection and care to reduce risk of failure. Whereas this has negative implications for community resilience, a number of small and medium-sized communities demonstrated opportunities to address urban forest health such as harnessing employee champions, local sources of expertise, and encouraging volunteerism. Municipal tree programs should not overlook community assets and culture in the goal to reduce risk while maximizing tree benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Barrier islands are especially vulnerable to hurricanes and other large storms, owing to their mobile composition, low elevations, and detachment from the mainland. Conceptual models of barrier‐island evolution emphasize ocean‐side processes that drive landward migration through overwash, inlet migration, and aeolian transport. In contrast, we found that the impact of Hurricane Dorian (2019) on North Core Banks, a 36‐km barrier island on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, was primarily driven by inundation of the island from Pamlico Sound, as evidenced by storm‐surge model results and observations of high‐water marks and wrack lines. Analysis of photogrammetry products from aerial imagery collected before and after the storm indicate the loss of about 18% of the subaerial volume of the island through the formation of over 80 erosional washout channels extending from the marsh and washover platform, through gaps in the foredunes, to the shoreline. The washout channels were largely co‐located with washover fans deposited by earlier events. Net seaward export of sediment resulted in the formation of deltaic bars offshore of the channels, which became part of the post‐storm berm recovery by onshore bar migration and partial filling of the washouts with washover deposits within 2 months. This event represents a volumetric setback in the overwash/rollover behavior required for barrier transgression, but the new ponds and lowland habitats may provide beneficial habit for endangered species and will likely persist for years. Plain Language Summary: As sea level rises, barrier islands tend to migrate toward land, helped by storms that move sand from the ocean to the back side. In rarer events, such as Hurricane Dorian (2019), storms can transport sand from the back side to the ocean. Using overlapping photos collected from a plane, we created 3‐D elevation maps and stitched‐together photo mosaics of North Core Banks, North Carolina, immediately before and after Hurricane Dorian, and then once a month for 3 months afterward, to document the erosion and recovery of the beach and barrier island. We found major changes. During the storm, abnormally high water levels in Pamlico and Core Sounds flooded the island and created distinct channels as water drained from the sound side into the Atlantic Ocean. This process, called outwash, moved 18% of the island sand into the ocean over the course of a few hours. The maps also showed the initial stages of a recovery process, as beach sand was moved by ocean waves and plugged the channels, creating new, and semi‐permanent, habitats within the barrier island. Events such as Hurricane Dorian may slow the typical migration process of barrier islands and change the landscape for years to come. Key Points: Wind‐driven surge from Pamlico Sound inundated the barrier island of North Core Banks during Hurricane DorianSeaward‐directed flow (outwash) through gaps in the dunes eroded about 18% of the island volume, mostly from antecedent washover depositsThis event represents a setback for barrier transgression but has created beneficial habitat for endangered species [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The insurance sector is affected by decadal-scale variations in annual European windstorm losses amounting to a few billion euros, yet has not applied recent advances in understanding and predicting this variability to their pricing of windstorm risk. This is mainly due to an unknown relation between insured wind losses and meteorological definitions of storminess used in research. This study aimed to reduce this uncertainty. A history of windstorm insurance losses over the past 72 years was developed from winds in weather reanalyses. Then, typical storm proxies used by researchers, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation, were compared to the new windstorm loss record. The relationship between the proxies and losses has two distinct regimes: highly consistent from 1950 up to the 2000s, then a divergence in the past 10 to 15 years. The recent separation is large and robust, with high confidence that modern values of researchers' proxies approach levels last seen 30 years ago, whereas decadal-mean losses are far lower today than in the 1980s and '90s. The cause of this divergence was explored. Storm damages are most closely associated with peak gusts deriving their momentum from winds in the free troposphere, and pressure gradients at the surface used in typical climate indices can only partially describe higher level winds. Based on this reasoning, a new Hemispheric Geostrophy Index (HGI) was defined as the difference in 700 hPa heights between the tropics and the Arctic. It was found to vary coherently with decadal losses in the past, and crucially retains this consistency in the past 15 years too. Breaking down the HGI into component parts revealed that lower storminess in recent times is linked to ongoing reductions in poleward baroclinicity. Further development of loss history and climate indices would help bridge decadal research to insurance applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Forestry Studies / Metsanduslikud Uurimused is the property of Sciendo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

PRIMAVERA (process-based climate simulation: advances in high-resolution modelling and European climate risk assessments) was a European Union Horizon 2020 project whose primary aim was to generate advanced and well-evaluated high-resolution global climate model datasets for the benefit of governments, business and society in general. Following consultation with members of the insurance industry, we have used a PRIMAVERA multi-model ensemble to generate a European winter windstorm event set for use in insurance risk analysis, containing approximately 1300 years of windstorm data. The data are available at 10.5281/zenodo.6492182. To create the storm footprints for the event set, the storms in the PRIMAVERA models are identified through tracking. A method is developed to separate the winds from storms occurring in the domain at the same time. The wind footprints are bias corrected and converted to 3 s gusts onto a uniform grid using quantile mapping. The distribution of the number of model storms per season as a function of estimated loss is consistent with re-analysis, as are the total losses per season, and the additional event set data greatly reduce uncertainty on return period magnitudes. The event set also reproduces the temporally clustered nature of European windstorms. Since the event set is generated from global climate models, it can help to quantify the non-linear relationship between large-scale climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and windstorm damage. Although we find only a moderate positive correlation between extended winter NAO and storm damage in northern European countries (consistent with re-analysis), there is a large change in risk of extreme seasons between negative and positive NAO states. The intensities of the most severe storms in the event set are, however, sensitive to the gust conversion and bias correction method used, so care should be taken when interpreting the expected damages for very long return periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Can we reduce the damage from climate change by investing in seawalls, stilts, or other forms of adaptation? Focusing on the case of severe storms in the US, I develop a macro heterogeneous-agent model to quantify the interactions between adaptation, federal disaster policy, and climate change. The model departs from the standard climate damage function and incorporates the damage from storms as the realization of idiosyncratic shocks. Using the calibrated model, I infer that adaptation capital comprises approximately 1 |$\%$| of the US capital stock. I find that while the moral hazard effects from disaster aid reduce adaptation in the US economy, federal subsidies for investment in adaptation more than correct for the moral hazard. I introduce climate change into the model as a permanent increase in either or both the severity or probability of storms. Adaptation reduces the damage from this climate change by approximately one-third. Finally, I show that modelling the idiosyncratic risk component of climate damage has quantitatively important implications for adaptation and for the welfare cost of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, the consequences of climate change have rapidly necessitated local government action to mitigate and adapt to rising sea levels, increased storm frequency, and higher temperatures. Acknowledgement of underlying climate issues, however, varies widely across regions and towns. Using critical discourse analysis (CDA), this paper evaluates the climate change acknowledgment of five municipality sustainability action plans (SAP) in coastal Florida and the broader implications for sustainable development. Public pressure, environmental champions, and recent storm events causing infrastructure damage were identified as key factors underpinning coastal climate change acknowledgement. Notably, the plans that admitted the anthropogenic causes of climate change were more optimistic and action focused. By emphasizing local mitigation efforts and opportunities, they were more empowering than those that treated climate threats as inevitable external circumstances. Anthropogenic climate change acknowledgment is thus a powerful tool for local governments to catalyze action when developing their sustainability goals and plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rovers and landers on Mars have experienced local, regional, and planetary‐scale dust storms. However, in situ documentation of active lifting within storms has remained elusive. Over 5–11 January 2022 (LS 153°–156°), a dust storm passed over the Perseverance rover site. Peak visible optical depth was ∼2, and visibility across the crater was briefly reduced. Pressure amplitudes and temperatures responded to the storm. Winds up to 20 m s−1 rotated around the site before the wind sensor was damaged. The rover imaged 21 dust‐lifting events—gusts and dust devils—in one 25‐min period, and at least three events mobilized sediment near the rover. Rover tracks and drill cuttings were extensively modified, and debris was moved onto the rover deck. Migration of small ripples was seen, but there was no large‐scale change in undisturbed areas. This work presents an overview of observations and initial results from the study of the storm. Plain Language Summary: Mars commonly has local and regional dust storms, some of which grow into global dust storms. Until now, no lander or rover on Mars has observed the meteorology and processes within an active lifting storm center. The Perseverance rover experienced a large regional storm in Jezero crater over six sols (Martian days) in January 2022. It documented active dust lifting and winds reshaping the Martian sediment. Winds increased as the storm approached but were only directly monitored until the afternoon of the first sol, when the wind sensor failed during high winds. Winds, even after the loss of the wind sensor, were powerful enough to blow sand and lift dust around the rover. Rover imaging showed 21 dust devils and other dust lifting events near noon of the first sol. Images of the rover and terrain showed that there were several incidents of sediment mobilization immediately around the rover. Rover tracks were erased or heavily modified, cuttings from a recent drilling were removed, and sediment was deposited across the rover's deck. The changes wrought by the storm were concentrated on areas where the rover had previously modified the terrain, except for sand motion including the migration of small sand ripples. Key Points: The Perseverance rover documented the meteorology and effects of a dust storm as it passed over Jezero crater, MarsThe storm brought damaging winds and wide‐spread dust lifting, while modifying the pressure amplitudes and thermal cycle at the siteWinds extensively modified previously disturbed areas, while sand motion and small‐scale ripple migration occurred all around the rover [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]