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The New Zealand Community Fault Model (NZ CFM) is a publicly available representation of New Zealand fault zones that have the potential to produce damaging earthquakes. Compiled through collaborative engagement between New Zealand earthquake-science experts, this first edition (version 1.0) of the NZ CFM builds upon previous compilations of earthquake-source active fault models with the addition of new and modified information. Developed primarily to support an update of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model, the NZ CFM comprises two principal components. The first dataset is a two-dimensional map representation of the surface traces of 880 generalised fault zones. Each fault zone is assigned specific geometric and kinematic attributes, including uncertainties, supplemented with a subjective quality ranking focused primarily on the confidence in assigned slip rates. The second component is a three-dimensional representation of the fault zones as triangulated mesh surfaces that are projected down-dip from the two-dimensional mapped traces to a geophysically-defined maximum fault rupture depth. This article summarises the compilation and parameterisation of the NZ CFM, along with background on its relation to predecessor datasets, and forward applications to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and physics-based earthquake models currently being developed for Aotearoa New Zealand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting large earthquakes along active faults is of critical importance for seismic hazard assessment. Statistical models of recurrence intervals based on compilations of paleoseismic data provide a forecasting tool. Here we compare five models and use Bayesian model-averaging to produce time-dependent, probabilistic forecasts of large earthquakes along 93 fault segments worldwide. This approach allows better use of the measurement errors associated with paleoseismic records and accounts for the uncertainty around model choice. Our results indicate that although the majority of fault segments (65/93) in the catalogue favour a single best model, 28 benefit from a model-averaging approach. We provide earthquake rupture probabilities for the next 50 years and forecast the occurrence times of the next rupture for all the fault segments. Our findings suggest that there is no universal model for large earthquake recurrence, and an ensemble forecasting approach is desirable when dealing with paleoseismic records with few data points and large measurement errors. There is no universal model for large earthquake recurrence, and an ensemble forecasting approach is desirable when dealing with paleoseismic records with few data points and large measurement errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Hundalee Fault forms part of the southeastern margin of the 2016 Kaikōura Earthquake rupture zone. Its late Quaternary activity and structural character may offer insights to fault interrelationships associated with the 2016 rupture. Mapping of the Hundalee Fault revealed several pre-existing fault scarps. Trenching of a scarp across a fluvial terrace together with radiocarbon dating shows the occurrence of at least two, probably three, surface ruptures since 3.5 ka. The scarp records about 2.5 m of reverse-sense vertical deformation, mostly folding, of which ∼0.6 m occurred in 2016, along with subordinate sinistral slip. Fluvial terrace ages inferred from geomorphological relationships, together with the trenching results, indicate a long-term vertical slip rate of 0.2–0.4 mm/yr since at least 30 ka. Geological data indicate a relatively recently surface emergence of the Hundalee Fault from beneath a fault propagation fold. The 2016 Hundalee Fault rupture is interpreted as a break-out from an extensive blind thrust fault, whose motion triggered predominantly contractional rupture of an array of steeper near-surface faults. The thrust is hypothesised as having provided linkage in the 2016 rupture between the predominantly strike-slip ruptures of The Humps Fault to the southwest and the Kekerengu Fault to the northeast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper details the library special collections material held at the library of Highland Theological College, University of the Highlands and Islands. Our three main special collections are the primary focus of this article: the William Temple Collection, the Rutherford House Collection, and the Fort Augustus Collection. We detail here the story behind these collections entering our custody and proceed to highlight a selection of monographs of provenance and personal interest. This paper constitutes original research into the collections, building upon a foundation laid by the late college librarian, Mr. Martin Cameron (1955-2019), who curated the collections over some twenty years. We also discuss our ongoing work in formulating our new Historical Texts Collection, comprising the library's oldest books of academic interest, and a subcollection of liturgical music, isolated from the Fort Augustus Collection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the first paleoseismic investigation of the Hyde Fault, one of a series of north-east striking reverse faults within the Otago range and basin province in southern New Zealand. Surface traces of the fault and associated geomorphology were mapped using a lidar digital elevation model and field investigations. Trenches were excavated at two sites across fault scarps on alluvial fan surfaces. The trenches revealed stratigraphic evidence for four surface-rupturing earthquakes. Optically stimulated luminescence dating constrains the timing of these events to around 47.2 ka (37.5–56.7 ka at 95% confidence), 34.6 ka (24.7–46.4 ka), 23.5 ka (19.7–27.3 ka) and 10.5 ka (7.9–13.1 ka). We obtain a mean inter-event time of 12.4 kyr (2.3–23.9 kyr at 95% confidence) and the slip rate is estimated to be 0.22 mm/yr (0.15–0.3 mm/yr). We do not find evidence to suggest that earthquake recurrence on the Hyde Fault is episodic, in contrast to other well-studied faults within Otago, suggesting diverse recurrence styles may co-exist in the same fault system. This poses challenges for characterising the seismic hazard potential of faults in the region, particularly when paleoearthquake records are limited to the most recent few events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reverse faulting in Otago, southern New Zealand, accommodates distributed tectonic convergence on the eastern side of the Australian‐Pacific plate boundary. Paleoearthquake records from some of the faults in the region show highly variable earthquake recurrence times, with long periods of quiescence separated by periods of earthquake activity. Here we develop a longer‐term context for these records, using cosmogenic radionuclide dating of faulted alluvial fan surfaces to characterize the late Quaternary slip rates on two significant faults within the system, the Hyde and Dunstan faults. We determine an average slip rate of 0.24 mm/yr (0.19–0.29 mm/yr at 95% confidence) for the Hyde Fault since about 115 ka, and an average slip rate of 0.16 mm/yr (0.12–0.21 mm/yr) for the Dunstan Fault since about 320 ka. Both faults show increases in slip rate of a factor of three to five times the average long‐term rate over timescales of 10 kyr. Increases in slip rate are out of phase on the two faults, supporting a hypothesis that strain is shared within the fault system over timescales on the order of 10 kyr. Over longer timescales, on the order of 100 kyr, slip rates can be well‐approximated by a linear fit, providing an upper limit on the variability of fault slip rates with time. Key Points: Cosmogenic radionuclide dating of faulted alluvial fans constrains slip rates for two reverse faults in southern New ZealandSlip rates are 0.24 mm/yr (0.19–0.29 mm/yr) for the Hyde Fault and 0.16 mm/yr (0.12–0.21 mm/yr) for the Dunstan FaultStrain sharing is suggested by changes in slip rates on 10 kyr timescales, while over longer timescales this variability averages out [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Elastic rebound theory forms the basis of the standard earthquake cycle model and predicts large earthquakes to recur regularly through cycles of strain accumulation and release. Yet few individual earthquake records are sufficiently long to test the theory. Here we characterize the distribution of earthquake interevent times from a global compilation of 80 long‐term records. We find that large earthquakes recur more regularly than a random Poisson process on individual fault segments. The majority of Earth's well‐studied faults shows weakly periodic and uncorrelated large earthquake recurrence, consistent with the expectations of elastic rebound theory. However, many low activity‐rate (annual occurrence rates < 2 × 10−4) faults show random or clustered earthquake recurrence, which cannot be explained by elastic rebound theory. Plain Language Summary: To help society prepare for earthquakes, we use the record of previous earthquakes to forecast the chance of future large earthquakes. A key question is whether large earthquakes on a particular fault recur regularly, randomly, or cluster together in time. Here we compile records from 80 different studies of prehistoric earthquakes. We show that large earthquakes on a particular fault recur more regularly than random, except in regions that experience few earthquakes. This means that for regions that experience many earthquakes, we can forecast future large earthquake occurrence with some degree of skill. In contrast, forecasting large earthquake occurrence in places that experience few earthquakes, and where we expect them least, remains exceptionally difficult. Key Points: We characterize the distribution of earthquake interevent times from a global compilation of 80 long‐term recordsMost active faults show weakly periodic recurrence of large earthquakes consistent with elastic rebound theoryFaults in slowly deforming regions have highly variable earthquake interevent times [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The loss of life and economic consequences caused by several recent earthquakes demonstrate the importance of developing seismically safe building codes. The quantification of seismic hazard, which describes the likelihood of earthquake-induced ground shaking at a site for a specific time period, is a key component of a building code, as it helps ensure that structures are designed to withstand the ground shaking caused by a potential earthquake. Geologic or geomorphic data represent important inputs to the most common seismic hazard model (probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, or PSHAs), as they can characterize the magnitudes, locations, and types of earthquakes that occur over long intervals (thousands of years). However, several recent earthquakes and a growing body of work challenge many of our previous assumptions about the characteristics of active faults and their rupture behavior, and these complexities can be challenging to accurately represent in PSHA. Here, we discuss several of the outstanding challenges surrounding geologic and geomorphic data sets frequently used in PSHA. The topics we discuss include how to utilize paleoseismic records in fault slip rate estimates, understanding and modeling earthquake recurrence and fault complexity, the development and use of fault-scaling relationships, and characterizing enigmatic faults using topography. Making headway in these areas will likely require advancements in our understanding of the fundamental science behind processes such as fault triggering, complex rupture, earthquake clustering, and fault scaling. Progress in these topics will be important if we wish to accurately capture earthquake behavior in a variety of settings using PSHA in the future. Plain Language Summary Growing infrastructure and increasing population have caused significant loss of life due to recent large earthquakes, with the 2008 Mw 7.9Wenchuan and 2005 Mw 7.6 Kashmir earthquakes each causing greater than 50,000 deaths. These earthquakes highlight the need for the development of building codes designed to withstand the strong ground shaking caused by earthquakes, as reinforced infrastructure is one of the most important factors for preventing fatalities due to ground shaking from earthquakes. Identifying the seismic hazard of a region, or the likelihood of ground shaking at a site due to potential earthquakes over time, is a key ingredient for informing a defensible building code. Here, we focus on current and future advances in how data from the fields of geology and geomorphology contribute to the most widely used type of seismic hazard model. These geologic data represent vital components to seismic hazard models, as they can provide information about the location and types of earthquakes that can occur over long, thousands of years, time periods, that cannot be obtained using other methods.We discuss some of the most pressing scientific issues about these data that are important for the development of seismic hazard models and defensible building codes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse seismic data collected from a short-term array deployment in the low seismicity area of Dunedin city, New Zealand. The addition of this temporary network to the permanent GeoNet national seismic network allows detection of earthquakes not captured by the GeoNet network. Using one of the newly detected earthquakes as a master event, we employ a template match-filter analysis to identify similar events in the area. Specifically, we record a cluster of micro-events at the northern extent of the Akatore Fault (<15 km from the city centre). A recent paleoseismic study has shown the Akatore Fault to have had multiple earthquake ruptures in the late Holocene after over 110 ka of quiescence, so the observed microseismicity is consistent with the fault being in a state of elevated activity. In contrast, other known faults in the area are quiescent with respect to both microseismicity and Holocene ruptures. The establishment of a permanent seismic array in and around Dunedin for the monitoring of microseismicity on the Akatore Fault and other local faults is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the results of a paleoseismic study of the Akatore Fault in the low seismicity region of Otago, New Zealand. Two trenches reveal at least three reverse fault ruptures that are constrained to have occurred between 13,314 B.C. and 680 A.D. (antepenultimate event), 737 and 960 A.D. (penultimate event) and 1047 and 1278 A.D. (most recent event), with a single-event displacements of 1.6–2.5 m. Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) profiles and sediment analyses show that a 125 ka marine terrace is likely also only displaced by these three events, suggesting these earthquakes have ended a minimum 110,000 year period of quiescence on the fault. The fault therefore appears to exhibit strong aperiodicity of earthquake occurrence, a characteristic previously suggested for the Akatore Fault and other well-studied Otago faults. Slip rate and recurrence interval for the current active period are 0.3–6.0 mm/yr and 450–5110 years respectively. We suggest that for seismic hazard assessments in nearby Dunedin it is prudent to assume that the high rates of recent earthquakes will continue into the immediate future on the Akatore Fault. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Areas that experience permanent ground deformation in earthquakes (e.g., surface fault rupture, slope failure, and/or liquefaction) typically sustain greater damage and loss compared to areas that experience strong ground shaking alone. The 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake generated ≥220 km of surface fault rupture. The amount and style of surface rupture deformation varied considerably, ranging from centimetre-scale distributed folding to metre-scale discrete rupture. About a dozen buildings - mainly residential (or residential-type) structures comprising single-storey timber-framed houses, barns and wool sheds with lightweight roofing material - were directly impacted by surface fault rupture with the severity of damage correlating with both local discrete fault displacement and local strain. However, none of these buildings collapsed. This included a house built directly atop a discrete rupture that experienced ~10 m of lateral offset. The foundation and flooring system of this structure allowed decoupling of much of the ground deformation from the superstructure thus preventing collapse. Nevertheless, buildings directly impacted by surface faulting suffered greater damage than comparable structures immediately outside the zone of surface rupture deformation. From a life-safety standpoint, all these buildings performed satisfactorily and provide insight into construction styles that could be employed to facilitate non-collapse performance resulting from surface fault rupture and, in certain instances, even post-event functionality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide a summary of the surface fault ruptures produced by the Mw7.8 14 November 2016 Kaikōura earthquake, including examples of damage to engineered structures, transportation networks and farming infrastructure produced by direct fault surface rupture displacement. We also provide an overview of the earthquake in the context of the earthquake source model and estimated ground motions from the current (2010) version of the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for New Zealand. A total of 21 faults ruptured along a c.180 km long zone during the earthquake, including some that were unknown prior to the event. The 2010 version of the NSHM had considered multi-fault ruptures in the Kaikōura area, but not to the degree observed in the earthquake. The number of faults involved a combination of known and unknown faults, a mix of complete and partial ruptures of the known faults, and the non-involvement of a major fault within the rupture zone (i.e. the Hope Fault) makes this rupture an unusually complex event by world standards. However, the strong ground motions of the earthquake are consistent with the high hazard of the Kaikōura area shown in maps produced from the NSHM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) aims to develop uniform, openly available, standards, datasets and tools for worldwide seismic risk assessment through global collaboration, transparent communication and adapting state-of-the-art science. GEM Faulted Earth (GFE) is one of GEM's global hazard module projects. This paper describes GFE's development of a modern neotectonic fault database and a unique graphical interface for the compilation of new fault data. A key design principle is that of an electronic field notebook for capturing observations a geologist would make about a fault. The database is designed to accommodate abundant as well as sparse fault observations. It features two layers, one for capturing neotectonic faults and fold observations, and the other to calculate potential earthquake fault sources from the observations. In order to test the flexibility of the database structure and to start a global compilation, five preexisting databases have been uploaded to the first layer and two to the second. In addition, the GFE project has characterised the world's approximately 55,000 km of subduction interfaces in a globally consistent manner as a basis for generating earthquake event sets for inclusion in earthquake hazard and risk modelling. Following the subduction interface fault schema and including the trace attributes of the GFE database schema, the 2500-km-long frontal thrust fault system of the Himalaya has also been characterised. We propose the database structure to be used widely, so that neotectonic fault data can make a more complete and beneficial contribution to seismic hazard and risk characterisation globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New time-dependent seismicity models for the Christchurch region reflect the greatly enhanced seismicity in the region at present, and the gradual decrease of the seismicity over the next few decades. These seismicity models, along with modified ground-motion prediction equations and revised hazard calculation procedures have been used to derive new seismic hazard estimates for timeframes from months to 50 years. The hazard estimates have been used for a variety of applications crucial to planning and implementing the recovery of Christchurch. The new model includes higher amplitude spectra for designing new structures and assessing existing ones, magnitude-weighted peak ground acceleration hazard curves that account for duration effects for liquefaction assessment and remediation, and peak ground acceleration curves for evaluating the probabilities of rock falls. Particularly challenging has been the incorporation of time-varying hazard components into the redesign levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Potentially active faults are exposed in the steep glaciated topography of the central Southern Alps, New Zealand, immediately adjacent to the Alpine Fault plate boundary. Four major faults exposed along the flanks of three of the highest mountain ranges strike 10-23 km (potentially 40 km) NNE oblique to the Alpine Fault, dipping 57° ± 12° NW in the opposite direction. Youngest discernable motions were reverse dip-slip, accommodating both margin-perpendicular shortening and dextral margin-parallel components of plate motion. Kinematic analysis yields a compression axis (295/10° ± 9° trend or plunge) equivalent to the contemporary shortening determined from seismological and geodetic studies, suggesting the faults may be active, although definitive evidence for recent movement or single event displacements is lacking. There are 106 other potentially active faults mapped in central Southern Alps with strike lengths 4-73 km. Earthquake parameters were assigned from fault trace lengths and historical earthquake statistics, indicating potential for MW 5.5-7.4 earthquakes at recurrence intervals of 1000-10,000 years. Such long recurrence intervals are consistent with the faults having little surface expression, with rapid erosion of these seismically agitated mountains erasing any evidence of surface rupture during periods between earthquakes. The central Southern Alps faults exemplify the difficulty in fully deciphering long-term (e.g., Holocene or Quaternary) records of seismicity in tectonically active regions with rapidly evolving landscapes. Although there may be little evidence of surface ruptures remaining in the landscape, the faults are still an important potential source of earthquakes and seismic hazard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a probabilistic model for estimating the tsunami hazard along the coast of New Zealand due to plate-interface earthquakes along the South American subduction zone. To do this we develop statistical and physical models for several stages in the process of tsunami generation and propagation, and develop a method for combining these models to produce hazard estimates using a Monte-Carlo technique. This process is largely analogous to that used for seismic hazard modelling, but is distinguished from it by the use of a physical model to represent the tsunami propagation, as opposed to the use of empirical attenuation models for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three trenches excavated across the central portion of the right-lateral strike-slip Wairau Fault in South Island, New Zealand, exposed a complex set of fault strands that have displaced a sequence of late Holocene alluvial and colluvial deposits. Abundant charcoal fragments provide age control for various stratigraphic horizons dating back to c. 5610 yr ago. Faulting relations from the Wadsworth trench show that the most recent surface rupture event occurred at least 1290 yr and at most 2740 yr ago. Drowned trees in landslide-dammed Lake Chalice, in combination with charcoal from the base of an unfaulted colluvial wedge at Wadsworth trench, suggest a narrower time bracket for this event of 1811-2301 cal. yr BP. The penultimate faulting event occurred between c. 2370 and 3380 yr, and possibly near 2680 ± 60 cal. yr BP, when data from both the Wadsworth and Dillon trenches are combined. Two older events have been recognised from Dillon trench but remain poorly dated. A probable elapsed time of at least 1811 yr since the last surface rupture, and an average slip rate estimate for the Wairau Fault of 3-5 mm/yr, suggests that at least 5.4 m and up to 11.5 m of elastic shear strain has accumulated since the last rupture. This is near to or greater than the single-event displacement estimates of 5-7 m. The average recurrence interval for surface rupture of the fault determined from the trench data is 1150-1400 yr. Although the uncertainties in the timing of faulting events and variability in inter-event times remain high, the time elapsed since the last event is in the order of 1-2 times the average recurrence interval, implying that the Wairau Fault is near the end of its interseismic period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a methodology for the structured development of manufacturing information systems based on a collaborative action research project. The methodology starts from the premise that a company has an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system in place. It can then be used to determine the optimal method for achieving a particular business requirement. The methodology has seven decision points, each of which relates to a different outcome. The methodology is supported by a series of questions to assist users in making appropriate decisions. The paper also describes a series of structured interviews with practitioners from industry. These were undertaken in order to verify the usefulness of the methodology. These interviews show that there is a requirement for tools to assist in the ongoing development of information systems in manufacturing industry. Furthermore, the interviews suggest that the methodology is a useful tool, particularly for relatively inexperienced manufacturing information system practitioners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volcanic hazard estimation is becoming increasingly quantitative, creating the potential for land-use decisions and engineering design to use volcanic information in an analogous manner to seismic codes. The initial requirement is to characterize the possible hazard sources, quantifying the likely timing, magnitude and location of the next eruption in each case. This is complicated by the extremely different driving processes at individual volcanoes, and incomplete and uneven records of past activity at various volcanoes. To address these issues, we carried out an expert elicitation approach to estimate future eruption potential for 12 volcanoes of interest in New Zealand. A total of 28 New Zealand experts provided estimates that were combined using Cooke’s classical method to arrive at a hazard estimate. In 11 of the 12 cases, the elicited eruption duration increased with VEI, and was correlated with expected repose, differing little between volcanoes. Most of the andesitic volcanoes had very similar elicited distributions for the VEI of a future eruption, except that Taranaki was expected to produce a larger eruption, due to the current long repose. Elicited future vent locations for Tongariro and Okataina reflect strongly the most recent eruptions. In the poorly studied Bay of Islands volcanic field, the estimated vent location distribution was centred on the centroid of the previous vent locations, while in the Auckland field, it was focused on regions within the field without past eruptions. The elicited median dates for the next eruptions ranged from AD2022 (Whakaari/White Island) to AD4390 (Tuhua/Mayor Island). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]