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Variable-Value axiologies avoid Parfit's Repugnant Conclusion while satisfying some weak instances of the Mere Addition principle. We apply calibration methods to two leading members of the family of Variable-Value views conditional upon: first, a very weak instance of Mere Addition and, second, some plausible empirical assumptions about the size and welfare of the intertemporal world population. We find that such facts calibrate these two Variable-Value views to be nearly totalist, and therefore imply conclusions that should seem repugnant to anyone who opposes Total Utilitarianism only due to the Repugnant Conclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The size of the human population is projected to peak in the 21st century. But quantitative projections past 2100 are rare, and none quantify the possibility of a rebound from low fertility to replacement-level fertility. Moreover, the most recent long-term deterministic projections were published a decade ago; since then there has been further global fertility decline. Here we provide updated long-term cohort-component population projections and extend the set of scenarios in the literature to include scenarios in which future fertility (a) stays below replacement or (b) recovers and increases. We also characterize old-age dependency ratios. We show that any stable, long-run size of the world population would persistently depend on when an increase towards replacement fertility begins. Without such an increase, the 400-year span when more than 2 billion people were alive would be a brief spike in history. Indeed, four-fifths of all births—past, present, and future—would have already happened. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Utilitarianism is the most prominent social welfare function in economics. We present three new axiomatic characterizations of utilitarian (that is, additively-separable) social welfare functions in a setting where there is risk over both population size and individuals' welfares. We first show that, given uncontroversial basic axioms, Blackorby et al.'s (J Popul Econ 11:1–20, 1998) Expected Critical-Level Generalized Utilitarianism is equivalent to a new axiom holding that it is better to allocate higher utility-conditional-on-existence to possible people who have a higher probability of existence. The other two characterizations extend and clarify classic axiomatizations of utilitarianism from settings with either social risk or variable-population, considered alone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDG) aim at satisfying three-fourths of family planning needs through modern contraceptive methods by 2030. However, the traditional methods (TM) of family planning use are on the rise, along with modern contraception in Uttar Pradesh (UP), the most populous Indian state. This study attempts to explore the dynamics of rising TM use in the state. Methods: We used a state representative cross-sectional survey conducted among 12,200 Currently Married Women (CMW) aged 15–49 years during December 2020–February 2021 in UP. Using a multistage sampling technique, 508 primary sampling units (PSU) were selected. These PSU were ASHA areas in rural settings and Census Enumeration Blocks in urban settings. About 27 households from each PSU were randomly selected. All the eligible women within the selected households were interviewed. The survey also included the nearest public health facilities to understand the availability of family planning methods. Univariate and bivariate analyses were conducted. Appropriate sampling weights were applied. Results: Overall, 33.9% of CMW were using any modern methods and 23.7% any TM (Rhythm and withdrawal) at the time of survey. The results show that while the modern method use has increased by 2.2 percentage points, the TM use increased by 9.9 percentage points compared to NFHS-4 (2015–16). The use of TM was almost same across women of different socio-demographic characteristics. Of 2921 current TM users, 80.7% started with TM and 78.3% expressed to continue with the same in future. No side effects (56.9%), easy to use (41.7%) and no cost incurred (38.0%) were the main reasons for the continuation of TM. TM use increased despite a significant increase (66.1 to 81.3%) in the availability of modern reversible methods and consistent availability of limiting methods (84.0%) in the nearest public health facilities. Conclusion: Initial contraceptive method was found to have significant implications for current contraceptive method choice and future preferences. Program should reach young and zero-parity women with modern method choices by leveraging front-line workers in rural UP. Community and facility platforms can also be engaged in providing modern method choices to women of other parities to increase modern contraceptive use further to achieve the SDG goals. Plain language summary: In Uttar Pradesh, the use of traditional methods of contraception is on the rise, observed similarly in many other Indian states in recent times. The emphasis on modern contraceptive methods and the rise and high prevalence of traditional method use in the state call for a systematic assessment to understand the dynamics such as patterns, prevalence and reasons for traditional method use for better family planning programming. Using a state representative cross-sectional survey data from Uttar Pradesh, we attempted to understand the dynamics of increasing traditional methods use. We found no significant variations in use of traditional methods by their socio-demographic characteristics. Not only that, most current traditional method users reported that their first method was a traditional method and an overwhelming proportion of women (4/5 traditional methods users) expressed to continue with the same method in future. Also the findings reveal that more than half of the traditional method users used the method consistently over the three-years calendar period. Among those who had unmet need at the time of survey, a considerable proportion of them intend to use traditional methods in future. This emphasized the importance of initial contraceptive method choice on current contraceptive use and future preference. Traditional methods use increased in the state despite a significant increase (66.1 to 81.3% during 2018 to 2021) in availability of modern reversible methods and consistent availability of limiting method (84.0%) in public health facilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OBJECTIVE To compare fertility in India to both low-to-middle-income and high-income countries (LMICs and HICs) and describe the patterns that have accompanied India's transition to low fertility. METHODS We use data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), the United Nations (UN), and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to observe factors associated with fertility decline in 36 Indian states and 76 countries. RESULTS Although fertility in India has declined to levels similar to HICs, women's entry into marriage and initiation of childbearing are more in line with patterns found in LMICs. The vast majority of women in India (97%) are married by age 30, and their average age at first birth is only 21.3 years old. In spite of these patterns, average fertility has declined in India as a result of earlier termination of childbearing. Among more recent cohorts, fewer women progressed to higher-order births and about half of women obtained a sterilization by age 35. CONCLUSIONS India has reached low fertility by mechanisms outside the traditional indicators of fertility decline. In contrast to countries that have achieved low fertility through delayed age at first birth, women in India have continued to enter unions and bear children early, lowered their age at last birth, and increasingly ended their fertility via sterilization following the birth of two children. CONTRIBUTION Evidence from India reveals an alternative pathway to low fertility, highlighting the limitations of traditional socioeconomic indicators for explaining fertility decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

All leading long-term global population projections agree on continuing fertility decline, resulting in a rate of population size growth that will continue to decline toward zero and would eventually turn negative. However, scholarly and popular arguments have suggested that because fertility transmits intergenerationally (i.e., higher fertility parents tend to have higher fertility children) and is heterogeneous within a population, long-term population growth must eventually be positive, as highfertility groups come to dominate the population. In this research note, we show that intergenerational transmission of fertility is not sufficient for positive long-term population growth, for empirical and theoretical reasons. First, because transmission is imperfect, the combination of transmission rates and fertility rates may be quantitatively insufficient for long-term population growth: higher fertility parents may nevertheless produce too few children who retain higher fertility preferences. Second, today even higher fertility subpopulations show declining fertility rates, which may eventually fall below replacement (and in some populations already are). Therefore, although different models of fertility transmission across generations reach different conclusions, depopulation is likely under any model if, in the future, even higher fertility subpopulations prefer and achieve below-replacement fertility. These results highlight the plausibility of long-term global depopulation and the importance of understanding the possible consequences of depopulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The premise that a woman’s social status has intergenerational effects on her children’s health has featured prominently in population science research and in development policy. This study focuses on an important case in which social hierarchy has such an effect. In joint patrilocal households in rural India, women married to the younger brother are assigned lower social rank than women married to the older brother in the same household. Almost 8% of rural Indian children under 5 years old—more than 6 million children—live in such households. We show that children of lower-ranking moth­ers are less likely to sur­vive and have worse health out­comes, reflected in higher neonatal mortality and shorter height, compared with children of higher-ranking mothers in the same household. That the variation in mothers’ social status that we study is not subject to reporting bias is an advantage relative to studies using self-reported measures. We present evidence that one mechanism for this effect is maternal nutrition: although they are not shorter, lower-ranking mothers weigh less than higher-ranking mothers. These results suggest that programs that merely make transfers to households without attention to intrahousehold distribution may not improve child outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The population ethics literature has long focused on attempts to avoid the repugnant conclusion. We show that a large set of social orderings that are conventionally understood to escape the repugnant conclusion do not in fact avoid it in all instances. As we demonstrate, prior results depend on formal definitions of the repugnant conclusion that exclude some repugnant cases, for reasons inessential to any "repugnance" (or other meaningful normative properties) of the repugnant conclusion. In particular, the literature traditionally formalizes the repugnant conclusion to exclude cases that include an unaffected sub-population. We relax this normatively irrelevant exclusion, and others. Using several more inclusive formalizations of the repugnant conclusion, we then prove that any plausible social ordering implies some instance of the repugnant conclusion. This understanding—that it is impossible to avoid all instances of the repugnant conclusion—is broader than the traditional understanding in the literature that the repugnant conclusion can only be escaped at unappealing theoretical costs. Therefore, the repugnant conclusion provides no methodological guidance for theory or policy-making, because it does not discriminate among candidate social orderings. So escaping the repugnant conclusion should not be a core goal of the population ethics literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What are the prospects for using population policy as tool to reduce carbon emissions? In this paper, we review evidence from population science, in order to inform debates in population ethics that, so far, have largely taken place within the academic philosophy literature. In particular, we ask whether fertility policy is likely to have a large effect on carbon emissions, and therefore on temperature change. Our answer is no. Prospects for a policy of fertility-reduction-as-climate-mitigation are limited by population momentum, a demographic factor that limits possible variation in the size of the population, even if fertility rates change very quickly. In particular, a hypothetical policy that instantaneously changed fertility and mortality rates to replacement levels would nevertheless result in a population of over 9 billion people in 2060. We use a leading climate-economy model to project the consequence of such a hypothetical policy for climate change. As a standalone mitigation policy, such a hypothetical change in the size of the future population – much too large to be implementable by any foreseeable government programme – would reduce peak temperature change only to 6.4°C, relative to 7.1°C under the most likely population path. Therefore, fertility reduction is unlikely to be an adequate core approach to climate mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We document a novel fact about neonatal death, or death in the first month of life. Globally, neonatal mortality is disproportionately concentrated in India. We identify a large effect of birth order on neonatal mortality that is unique to India: later-born siblings have a steep survival advantage relative to the birth-order gradient in other developing countries. We show that India's high prevalence of maternal undernutrition and its correlation with age and childbearing can explain this pattern. We find that Indian mothers exit the underweight body mass range at an internationally comparatively high rate as they progress through childbearing careers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three important features of Indian labor markets enduringly coexist: rent-seeking, occupational immobility, and caste. These facts are puzzling, given theories that predict static, equilibrium social inequality without conflict. Our model explains these facts as an equilibrium outcome. Some people switch caste-associated occupations for an easier source of rents, rather than for productivity. This undermines trust between castes and shuts down occupational mobility, which further encourages rent-seeking due to an inability of workers to sort into occupations. We motivate our contribution with novel stylized facts exploiting a unique survey question on casteism in India, which we show is associated with rent-seeking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population ethics is widely considered to be exceptionally important and exceptionally difficult. One key source of difficulty is the conflict between certain moral intuitions and analytical results identifying requirements for rational (in the sense of complete and transitive) social choice over possible populations. One prominent such intuition is the Asymmetry, which jointly proposes that the fact that a possible child's quality of life would be bad is a normative reason not to create the child, but the fact that a child's quality of life would be good is not a reason to create the child. This paper reports a set of questionnaire experiments about the Asymmetry in the spirit of economists' empirical social choice. Few survey respondents show support for the Asymmetry; instead respondents report that expectations of a good quality of life are relevant. Each experiment shows evidence (among at least some participants) of dual-process moral reasoning, in which cognitive reflection is statistically associated with reporting expected good quality of life to be normatively relevant. The paper discusses possible implications of these results for the economics of population-sensitive social welfare and for the conflict between moral mathematics and population intuition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UN Sustainable Development Goals call for the elimination of open defecation by 2030. Assessing global progress will require learning from India's sanitation efforts because of its ambitious program of high-profile behavior change messaging to tackle open defecation, and because open defecation is widespread in India. In 2014, the Prime Minister announced a policy called the Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM), which aimed to eliminate open defecation by 2019. However, the 2015-16 National Family Health Survey -4 found that about 55% of rural and 11% of urban Indian households lack a toilet or latrine. To assess the extent of public awareness of the SBM, we use a mobile phone survey to ask about people's knowledge of the existence and purpose of the SBM. We report representative estimates of awareness of the SBM among adults in Delhi (2016), Uttar Pradesh (2016), Mumbai (2016-17), Rajasthan (2016-17), Bihar (2018), Jharkhand (2018), and Maharashtra (2018). While much of the SBM's activities took place in its last two years, we find that, at the time of the survey, no more than one-third of adults in any state are aware that the SBM intends to promote toilet and latrine use. Awareness was particularly low in Uttar Pradesh, where one in eight people who defecates in the open worldwide lives. While the SBM was very active in constructing latrines, the lack of awareness we find suggests that the SBM was less successful in raising the awareness required for large-scale behavior change in promoting latrine use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The links among social inequality, economic inequality, and health have long been of interest to social scientists, but causal links are difficult to investigate empirically. In particular, studies examining the impact of social status on one's own health may overlook important effects of inequality on the health of populations as a whole occurring due to negative externalities of social forces. A recent literature on caste, sanitation, and child net nutrition provides an example of one social context where social inequality makes an entire population less healthy. This paper presents new observational analysis of the India Human Development Survey that provides descriptive evidence of this mechanism. We show that, on average, children in rural India are shorter if they live in villages where more people report practicing untouchability—meaning that they enforce caste hierarchies in their interactions with people from the lowest castes. This association is explained by the association between casteism and the prevalence of rural open defecation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates disparities in child height-an important marker of population-level health-among population groups in rural India. India is an informative context in which to study processes of health disparities because of wide heterogeneity in the degree of local segregation or integration among caste groups. Building on a literature that identifies discrimination by quantifying whether differences in socioeconomic status (SES) can account for differences in health, we decompose height differences between rural children from higher castes and rural children from three disadvantaged groups. We find that socioeconomic differences can explain the height gap for children from Scheduled Tribes (STs), who tend to live in geographically isolated places. However, SES does not fully explain height gaps for children from the Scheduled Castes (SC) and Other Backward Classes (OBCs). Among SC and OBC children, local processes of discrimination also matter: the fraction of households in a child's locality that outrank her household in the caste hierarchy predicts her height. SC and OBC children who are surrounded by other lower-caste households are no shorter than higher-caste children of the same SES. Our results contrast with studies from other populations where segregation or apartheid are negatively associated with health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uniquely widespread and persistent open defecation in rural India has emerged as an important policy challenge and puzzle about behavioral choice in economic development. One candidate explanation is the culture of purity and pollution that reinforces and has its origins in the caste system. Although such a cultural account is inherently difficult to quantitatively test, we provide support for this explanation by comparing open defecation rates across places in India where untouchability is more and less intensely practiced. In particular, we exploit a novel question in the 2012 India Human Development Survey that asked households whether they practice untouchability, meaning whether they enforce norms of purity and pollution in their interactions with lower castes. We find an association between local practice of untouchability and open defecation that is robust; is not explained by economic, educational, or other observable differences; and is specific to open defecation rather than other health behavior or human capital investments more generally. We verify that practicing untouchability is not associated with general disadvantage in health knowledge or access to medical professionals. We interpret this as evidence that the culture of purity, pollution, untouchability, and caste contributes to the exceptional prevalence of open defecation in rural India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How much should the present generations sacrifice to reduce emissions today, in order to reduce the future harms of climate change? Within climate economics, debate on this question has been focused on so-called "ethical parameters" of social time preference and inequality aversion. We show that optimal climate policy similarly importantly depends on the future of the developing world. In particular, although global poverty is falling and the economic lives of the poor are improving worldwide, leading models of climate economics may be too optimistic about two central predictions: future population growth in poor countries, and future convergence in total factor productivity (TFP). We report results of small modifications to a standard model: under plausible scenarios for high future population growth (especially in sub-Saharan Africa) and for low future TFP convergence, we find that optimal near-term carbon taxes could be substantially larger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the role of ethical values in the determination of the social cost of carbon, arguing that the familiar debate about discounting is too narrow. Other ethical issues are equally important to computing the social cost of carbon, and we highlight inequality, risk, and population ethics. Although the usual approach, in the economics of cost-benefit analysis for climate policy, is confined to a utilitarian axiology, the methodology of the social cost of carbon is rather flexible and can be expanded to a broader set of social-welfare approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exposure to open defecation has serious consequences for child mortality, health, and human capital development. South Asia has the highest rates of open defecation worldwide, and although the incidence declines as household income rises, differences across South Asian countries are not explained by differences in per capita income. The rate of open defecation in sub-national regions of Bangladesh, India and Nepal is highly correlated with the fraction of the population that identifies as Hindu, in part because certain rituals of purity and pollution discourage having latrines in close proximity to one's home. Almost all open defecation occurs in rural areas, and this paper estimates how much the rate could be reduced if rural households in regions that have a higher fraction of Hindus, where open defecation is still common, altered their behaviour to reflect that of non-Hindu households in regions that are predominantly non-Hindu, where the rate of open defecation is much lower. Using nonparametric reweighting methods, this paper projects that rural open defecation in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal could be reduced to rates of between 6 and 8 per cent, compared to the prevailing level of 65 per cent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anaemia impairs physical and cognitive development in children and reduces human capital accumulation. The prior economics literature has focused on the role of inadequate nutrition in causing anaemia. This article is the first to show that sanitation, a public good, significantly contributes to preventing anaemia. We identify effects by exploiting rapid and differential improvement in sanitation across regions of Nepal between 2006 and 2011. Within regions over time, cohorts of children exposed to better community sanitation developed higher haemoglobin levels. Our results highlight a previously undocumented externality of open defaecation, which is today practiced by over a billion people worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large literature considers the optimal size and growth rate of the human population, trading off the utility value of additional people with the costs of a larger population. In this literature, an important parameter is the social weight placed on population size; a standard result is that a planner with a larger weight on population chooses larger population levels and growth rates. We demonstrate that this result is conditionally overturned when an exhaustible resource constraint is introduced: if the discount rate is small enough, the optimal population today decreases with the welfare weight on population size. That is, a more total-utilitarian social planner could prefer a smaller population today than a more average-utilitarian social planner. We also present a numerical illustration applied to the case of climate change, where we show that under plausible real-world parameter values, our result matters for the direction and magnitude of optimal population policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing--rather than merely cost savings--again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India's experience presents a puzzle at odds with a basic fact of household economics: amidst unprecedented economic growth, average per capita daily calorie consumption has declined in recent decades. Does an improving disease environment explain the calorie decline? A diminished burden of infectious disease could lower energy needs by increasing absorption and effective use of calories. We document a robust effect of disease exposure - measured as infant mortality and as poor sanitation - on calorie consumption. Similar effects are found using multiple datasets and empirical strategies. Disease can account for an important fraction (one-fifth or more) of India's calorie decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Is a larger population of people living good lives a better population, all else equal? This question is central to population issues in social welfare, ethics, and policy. Many answers in the philosophical literature argue that if a policy choice results in the birth of additional people living good lives, these extra lives are irrelevant to any evaluation of the policy. This paper applies the questionnaire-experimental method of empirical studies of social choice to investigate participants' policy choices and social orderings with respect to population size and average well-being. In general, heterogeneous responses depended on the quantitative and qualitative properties of the question. In particular, an experimentally manipulated increase in population size caused an option to be more likely to be selected, on average. Overall, responses suggest that population size is not neutral to social welfare. Many participants, although not all, reported that a larger population of people living good lives could be strictly preferable, at small or no costs to average well-being. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A long literature in demography has debated the importance of place for health, especially children's health. In this study, we assess whether the importance of dense settlement for infant mortality and child height is moderated by exposure to local sanitation behavior. Is open defecation (i.e., without a toilet or latrine) worse for infant mortality and child height where population density is greater? Is poor sanitation is an important mechanism by which population density influences child health outcomes? We present two complementary analyses using newly assembled data sets, which represent two points in a trade-off between external and internal validity. First, we concentrate on external validity by studying infant mortality and child height in a large, international child-level data set of 172 Demographic and Health Surveys, matched to census population density data for 1,800 subnational regions. Second, we concentrate on internal validity by studying child height in Bangladeshi districts, using a new data set constructed with GIS techniques that allows us to control for fixed effects at a high level of geographic resolution. We find a statistically robust and quantitatively comparable interaction between sanitation and population density with both approaches: open defecation externalities are more important for child health outcomes where people live more closely together. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Particulate pollution has important consequences for human health, and is an issue of global concern. Outdoor air pollution has become a cause for alarm in India in particular because recent data suggest that ambient pollution levels in Indian cities are some of the highest in the world. We study the number of particles between 0.5μm and 2.5μm indoors while using affordable air purifiers in the highly polluted city of Delhi. Though substantial reductions in indoor number concentrations are observed during air purifier use, indoor air quality while using an air purifier is frequently worse than in cities with moderate pollution, and often worse than levels observed even in polluted cities. When outdoor pollution levels are higher, on average, indoor pollution levels while using an air purifier are also higher. Moreover, the ratio of indoor air quality during air purifier use to two comparison measures of air quality without an air purifier are also positively correlated with outdoor pollution levels, suggesting that as ambient air quality worsens there are diminishing returns to improvements in indoor air quality during air purifier use. The findings of this study indicate that although the most affordable air purifiers currently available are associated with significant improvements in the indoor environment, they are not a replacement for public action in regions like Delhi. Although private solutions may serve as a stopgap, reducing ambient air pollution must be a public health and policy priority in any region where air pollution is as high as Delhi’s during the winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world's remaining open defecation is increasingly concentrated in rural India. The Indian Government's efforts to reduce open defecation by providing subsidies for latrine construction have been largely unsuccessful in addressing the problem. It is now clear that behaviour change must be the priority if progress on ending open defecation is to be made. While community-led strategies have proven effective in various developing country contexts, there are serious reasons to question whether similar methods can work in rural India. Through both quantitative and qualitative analyses, we find that strict social hierarchies that continue to govern daily interactions in rural life today obstruct the spirit of cooperation upon which such methods rely. Additionally, caste-based notions of purity and pollution make the simple latrines used all over the developing world unattractive to rural Indians. In a context where people identify most closely with their caste and religious groups rather than their geographical villages, our findings suggest that a more nuanced understanding of the idea of 'community' is required. More experimentation, both with community-led and other strategies, is needed in order to effectively move from open defecation to latrine use in rural India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early-life health shapes cognitive skills and human capital. In India, widespread open defecation without using a toilet is an important source of childhood disease. We study the effects on childhood cognitive achievement of early-life exposure to India's Total Sanitation Campaign (TSC), a large government program that encouraged local governments to build latrines and promote their use. We find that the TSC caused six-year-olds exposed to it in their first year of life to be more likely to recognize letters and simple numbers. Our results suggest that open defecation is an important threat to human capital in India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economists are increasingly studying the market for charitable giving, including behavioral aspects. In the "identifiable victim effect" people donate more to help identified individuals than groups. However, individuals from socially low-ranking groups may not prompt similar charity. The continuing depth of caste-based prejudice in contemporary India is widely debated. We report three randomized experiments conducted with computer-using Indian participants. First, we conducted a survey experiment with detailed information about participants. Second, we experimentally varied 56,000 real advertisements for charitable donations shown online. Third, we conducted an Internet choice experiment in which participants allocated real money. In all three studies an identification treatment is crossed with population group membership of the recipient. We indicate population group membership of identified recipients subtly, using names that connote caste; participants' understanding of these names is verified with a separate experimental sample. In all studies, we find an identifiable victim effect for generic Indian and high-caste recipients, which is absent or even reversed for low-caste recipients. Caste still matters among the Internet-using, English-speaking population of our participants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite high rates of internal migration, India is urbanizing relatively slowly. This paper uses new data from rural north India to study short-term migration to urban areas and its role in rural livelihoods. First, we demonstrate the importance of data collection techniques tailored to understanding short-term migration. Second, we consider how traditional theories of migration apply in this context, where the fixed costs of migration are low, the opportunity costs vary by season, and where migration is negatively selective for education and economic status. We conclude by considering the implications of this migration for theories of development and development policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban Indian households with a male first child are approximately 2 percentage points more likely to use clean cooking fuel than comparable households with a female first child. Given Indian son preference, there are at least two mechanisms by which child sex could affect fuel choice: by improving the intrahousehold status of women, who bear more of the costs of traditional fuels, or by presenting an opportunity to invest in children's health, in the context of a preference for healthier boys. If child sex is not selected for by biased abortion or other processes, then the sex of a first child has an exogenous causal effect on household fuel choice. We show that the association between fuel choice and child sex is not driven by terminated pregnancies or by household wealth or family size. Among a range of outcomes we study, the effect of child sex is unique to fuel choice; our finding that there is no effect on other assets indicates that it is unlikely that the result is confounded by real or subjectively anticipated wealth. In addition to the National Family Health Survey NFHS-3, the main data source studied, we approximately replicate the result using the NFHS-2 and the District Level Health and Facilities Survey DLHS-3. Finally, we show evidence for a "first-stage" effect of having a first son on women's social status: such women have a greater body mass index, on average. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Even compared with neighbouring countries, latrine use is especially uncommon in India. How might caste – historically associated with sanitation inequality – interact with government sanitation policy? Using data from Rajasthan state, we investigate the effect of caste-based reservations for village chairmen elected in 2005 on the likelihood of winning the government’s Clean Village Prize by mid 2012. This prize is a large cash award for villages in which open defecation has been eliminated; thus it is intended to be a prize for both latrine construction and use. Villages randomly assigned to a Scheduled (low-ranking) Caste chairman are less likely to win the prize. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Some experimental participants are averse to compound lotteries: they prefer simple lotteries that depend on only one random event, even when the simple lotteries offer lower expected value. This paper proposes that many behavioral 'investments' represent more compound risk for poorer people-who often face multiple dimensions of deprivation-than for richer people. As a result, identical aversion to compound lotteries can prevent investment among poorer people, but have no effect on richer people. The paper reports five studies: two initial studies that document that aversion to compound lotteries operates as an economic preference, two 'laboratory experiments in the field' in El Salvador, and one Internet survey experiment in India. Poorer Salvadoran women who choose a compound lottery are 27 percentage points more likely to have found formal employment than those who chose a simple lottery, but lottery choice is unrelated to employment for richer women. Poorer students at the national Salvadoran university choose more compound lotteries than richer students, on average, implying that aversion to compound lotteries screened out poorer aspirants but not richer ones. Poorer and lower-caste Indian participants who choose compound lotteries are more likely than those who choose simple lotteries to have a different occupation than their parents, which is not the case for better-off participants. These findings suggest that the consequences of aversion to compound lotteries are different in the context of poverty and disadvantage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic theory and conventional wisdom suggest that time preference can cause or perpetuate poverty. Might poverty also or instead cause impatient or impulsive behavior? This paper reports a randomized lab experiment and a partially randomized field experiment, both in India, and analysis of the American Time Use Survey. In all three studies, poverty is associated with diminished behavioral control. The primary contribution of this empirical paper is to isolate the direction of causality from poverty to behavior. Three similar possible theoretical mechanisms, found in the psychology and behavioral economics literatures, cannot be definitively separated. One supported theoretical explanation is that poverty, by making economic decision-making more difficult, depletes cognitive control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the original publication of the article, the production team incorrectly processed the affiliations of the second author. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Three large new trials of unprecedented scale and cost, which included novel factorial designs, have found no effect of basic water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions on childhood stunting, and only mixed effects on childhood diarrhea. Arriving at the inception of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, and the bold new target of safely managed water, sanitation and hygiene for all by 2030, these results warrant the attention of researchers, policy-makers and practitioners.Main Body: Here we report the conclusions of an expert meeting convened by the World Health Organization and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to discuss these findings, and present five key consensus messages as a basis for wider discussion and debate in the WASH and nutrition sectors. We judge these trials to have high internal validity, constituting good evidence that these specific interventions had no effect on childhood linear growth, and mixed effects on childhood diarrhea. These results suggest that, in settings such as these, more comprehensive or ambitious WASH interventions may be needed to achieve a major impact on child health.Conclusion: These results are important because such basic interventions are often deployed in low-income rural settings with the expectation of improving child health, although this is rarely the sole justification. Our view is that these three new trials do not show that WASH in general cannot influence child linear growth, but they do demonstrate that these specific interventions had no influence in settings where stunting remains an important public health challenge. We support a call for transformative WASH, in so much as it encapsulates the guiding principle that - in any context - a comprehensive package of WASH interventions is needed that is tailored to address the local exposure landscape and enteric disease burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]