1. Identifying Robust Changes of Extreme Precipitation in Japan From Large Ensemble 5‐km‐Grid Regional Experiments for 4K Warming Scenario.
- Author
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Kawase, H., Nosaka, M., Watanabe, S. I., Yamamoto, K., Shimura, T., Naka, Y., Wu, Y.‐H., Okachi, H., Hoshino, T., Ito, R., Sugimoto, S., Suzuki, C., Fukui, S., Takemi, T., Ishikawa, Y., Mori, N., Nakakita, E., Yamada, T. J., Murata, A., and Nakaegawa, T.
- Subjects
TYPHOONS ,DOWNSCALING (Climatology) ,EXTREME environments ,ATMOSPHERIC models ,GLOBAL warming ,WATERSHEDS ,CLIMATE change - Abstract
To evaluate the impacts of global warming on local‐scale extreme precipitation in Japan, 720‐year ensemble dynamical downscaling is conducted by a regional climate model with a 5 km grid spacing. Our dynamical downscaling is based on the large ensemble data set called the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF). Comparing the historical and 4K warming climates, the annual maximum daily and hourly precipitation are enhanced over Japan due to global warming. The increasing rate of annual maximum daily precipitation is larger over the coast of the Pacific Ocean in eastern and western Japan and the northern parts of Japan. The periods in which the extreme daily precipitation increases in each region depend on the movement of the Baiu front and the number of typhoons from June through September. The 50‐year return value of the maximum 24‐hr land precipitation within 500 km of the typhoon center is 960 mm/24hr in the 5 km experiment. This value is larger by 1.87 times than that of the 20 km experiment. The rate of future increase in the 50‐year return value related to typhoons is 1.30 relative to the present values for the 5 km experiments. The local‐scale quasi‐stationary band‐shaped precipitation system, which is called senjo‐kousuitai in Japanese, sometimes brings local‐scale heavy precipitation to Japan. The senjo‐kousuitai is well reproduced in the 5 km experiments and shows increases in frequency and intensity under the 4K warming condition. This study also discusses the application of our 5 km experiments to hydrological fields. Plain Language Summary: Annual maximum daily and hourly precipitation extremes are enhanced due to warming over the whole of Japan, while their increasing rates are different in each region. The months of the largest increase in extreme precipitation depend on the region and correspond to the movement of the Baiu front and the number of typhoons hitting each region in Japan. Local‐scale quasi‐stationary band‐shaped precipitation systems, which sometimes bring extremely heavy precipitation to Japan, are well reproduced in the 5 km experiments and show increases in frequency and intensity under the 4K warming condition. The major river basins in the western parts of the Japanese island, Kyushu, would be influenced by global warming more than other river basins in Japan, indicating that the risk of flooding would increase. Key Points: In all of Japan, large ensemble experiments with 5 km grid spacing enable us to evaluate future changes in extreme precipitationExtreme precipitation can be enhanced in all of Japan due to global warming, while the rate of increase depends on the region and monthIn the rainy season in Japan, 10‐day precipitation will decrease, while infrequent extreme hourly and daily precipitation will increase [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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