1. The Predictive Performance of Risk Scores for the Outcome of COVID-19 in a 2-Year Swiss Cohort.
- Author
-
Boesing, Maria, Lüthi-Corridori, Giorgia, Büttiker, David, Hunziker, Mireille, Jaun, Fabienne, Vaskyte, Ugne, Brändle, Michael, and Leuppi, Jörg D.
- Subjects
RECEIVER operating characteristic curves ,COVID-19 ,DISEASE risk factors ,EARLY warning score ,MEDICAL microbiology - Abstract
Various scoring systems are available for COVID-19 risk stratification. This study aimed to validate their performance in predicting severe COVID-19 course in a large, heterogeneous Swiss cohort. Scores like the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), CURB-65, 4C mortality score (4C), Spanish Society of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology score (COVID-SEIMC), and COVID Intubation Risk Score (COVID-IRS) were assessed in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021. Predictive accuracy for severe course (defined as all-cause in-hospital death or invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV)) was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves and the area under the curve (AUC). The new 'COVID-COMBI' score, combining parameters from the top two scores, was also validated. This study included 1,051 patients (mean age 65 years, 60% male), with 162 (15%) experiencing severe course. Among the established scores, 4C had the best accuracy for predicting severe course (AUC 0.76), followed by COVID-IRS (AUC 0.72). COVID-COMBI showed significantly higher accuracy than all established scores (AUC 0.79, p = 0.001). For predicting in-hospital death, 4C performed best (AUC 0.83), and, for IMV, COVID-IRS performed best (AUC 0.78). The 4C and COVID-IRS scores were robust predictors of severe COVID-19 course, while the new COVID-COMBI showed significantly improved accuracy but requires further validation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF