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The ongoing and projected impacts from human-induced climate change highlight the need for mitigation approaches to limit warming in both the near term (<2050) and the long term (>2050). We clarify the role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols in the context of near-term and long-term climate mitigation, as well as the net effect of decarbonization strategies targeting fossil fuel (FF) phaseout by 2050. Relying on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change radiative forcing, we show that the net historical (2019 to 1750) radiative forcing effect of CO2 and non-CO2 climate forcers emitted by FF sources plus the CO2 emitted by land-use changes is comparable to the net from non-CO2 climate forcers emitted by non-FF sources. We find that mitigation measures that target only decarbonization are essential for strong long-term cooling but can result in weak near-term warming (due to unmasking the cooling effect of coemitted aerosols) and lead to temperatures exceeding 2 °C before 2050. In contrast, pairing decarbonization with additional mitigation measures targeting short-lived climate pollutants and N2O, slows the rate of warming a decade or two earlier than decarbonization alone and avoids the 2 °C threshold altogether. These non-CO2 targeted measures when combined with decarbonization can provide net cooling by 2030 and reduce the rate of warming from 2030 to 2050 by about 50%, roughly half of which comes from methane, significantly larger than decarbonization alone over this time frame. Our analysis demonstrates the need for a comprehensive CO2 and targeted non-CO2 mitigation approach to address both the near-term and long-term impacts of climate disruption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During recent decades, there has been dramatic Arctic sea ice retreat. This has reduced the top‐of‐atmosphere albedo, adding more solar energy to the climate system. There is substantial uncertainty regarding how much ice retreat and associated solar heating will occur in the future. This is relevant to future climate projections, including the timescale for reaching global warming stabilization targets. Here we use satellite observations to estimate the amount of solar energy that would be added in the worst‐case scenario of a complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice throughout the sunlit part of the year. Assuming constant cloudiness, we calculate a global radiative heating of 0.71 W/m2 relative to the 1979 baseline state. This is equivalent to the effect of one trillion tons of CO2 emissions. These results suggest that the additional heating due to complete Arctic sea ice loss would hasten global warming by an estimated 25 years. Key Points: The complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice would contribute an additional solar radiative heating of 0.71 W/m2 to the planetThis is equivalent to the radiative forcing from one trillion tons of CO2 emissionsThe added solar heating from complete Arctic sea ice loss would be an order of magnitude larger in the month of May than in the month of September [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to "well below 2 °C." Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) highimpact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (~50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a threelever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (<2050) and in the long term (2100): the carbon neutral (CN) lever to achieve zero net emissions of CO2, the super pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three trends will combine to hasten it, warn Yangyang Xu, Veerabhadran Ramanathan and David G. Victor. Three trends will combine to hasten it, warn Yangyang Xu, Veerabhadran Ramanathan and David G. Victor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The introduction of cloud condensation nuclei and radiative heating by sunlight-absorbing aerosols can modify the thickness and coverage of low clouds, yielding significant radiative forcing of climate. The magnitude and sign of changes in cloud coverage and depth in response to changing aerosols are impacted by turbulent dynamics of the cloudy atmosphere, but integrated measurements of aerosol solar absorption and turbulent fluxes have not been reported thus far. Here we report such integrated measurements made from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) during the CARDEX (Cloud Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Dynamics Experiment) investigation conducted over the northern Indian Ocean. The UAV and surface data reveal a reduction in turbulent kinetic energy in the surface mixed layer at the base of the atmosphere concurrent with an increase in absorbing black carbon aerosols. Polluted conditions coincide with a warmer and shallower surface mixed layer because of aerosol radiative heating and reduced turbulence. The polluted surface mixed layer was also observed to be more humid with higher relative humidity. Greater humidity enhances cloud development, as evidenced by polluted clouds that penetrate higher above the top of the surface mixed layer. Reduced entrainment of dry air into the surface layer from above the inversion capping the surface mixed layer, due to weaker turbulence, may contribute to higher relative humidity in the surface layer during polluted conditions. Measurements of turbulence are important for studies of aerosol effects on clouds. Moreover, reduced turbulence can exacerbate both the human health impacts of high concentrations of fine particles and conditions favorable for low-visibility fog events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scale of the decarbonisation challenge to meet the Paris Agreement is underplayed in the public arena. It will require precipitous emissions reductions within 40 years and a new carbon sink on the scale of the ocean sink. Even then, the world is extremely likely to overshoot. A catastrophic failure of policy, for example, waiting another decade for transformative policy and full commitments to fossil-free economies, will have irreversible and deleterious repercussions for humanity's remaining time on Earth. Only a global zero carbon roadmap will put the world on a course to phase-out greenhouse gas emissions and create the essential carbon sinks for Earth-system stability, without which, world prosperity is not possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are many contributing factors which determine the micro- and macrophysical properties of clouds, including atmospheric vertical structure, dominant meteorological conditions, and aerosol concentration, all of which may be coupled to one another. In the quest to determine aerosol effects on clouds, these potential relationships must be understood. Here we describe several observed correlations between aerosol conditions and cloud and atmospheric properties in the Indian Ocean winter monsoon season. In the CARDEX (Cloud, Aerosol, Radiative forcing, Dynamics EXperiment) field campaign conducted in February and March 2012 in the northern Indian Ocean, continuous measurements were made of atmospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV) and the liquid water path (LWP) of trade cumulus clouds, concurrent with measurements of water vapor flux, cloud and aerosol vertical profiles, meteorological data, and surface and total-column aerosol from instrumentation at a ground observatory and on small unmanned aircraft. We present observations which indicate a positive correlation between aerosol and cloud LWP only when considering cases with low atmospheric water vapor (PWV < 40 kgm-2), a criterion which acts to filter the data to control for the natural meteorological variability in the region. We then use the aircraft and ground-based measurements to explore possible mechanisms behind this observed aerosol-LWP correlation. The increase in cloud liquid water is found to coincide with a lowering of the cloud base, which is itself attributable to increased boundary layer humidity in polluted conditions. High pollution is found to correlate with both higher temperatures and higher humidity measured throughout the boundary layer. A large-scale analysis, using satellite observations and meteorological reanalysis, corroborates these covariations: high-pollution cases are shown to originate as a highly polluted boundary layer air mass approaching the observatory from a northwesterly direction. The source air mass exhibits both higher temperatures and higher humidity in the polluted cases. While the warmer temperatures may be attributable to aerosol absorption of solar radiation over the subcontinent, the factors responsible for the coincident high humidity are less evident: the high-aerosol conditions are observed to disperse with air mass evolution, along with a weakening of the hightemperature anomaly, while the high-humidity condition is observed to strengthen in magnitude as the polluted air mass moves over the ocean toward the site of the CARDEX observations. Potential causal mechanisms of the observed correlations, including meteorological or aerosol-induced factors, are explored, though future research will be needed for a more complete and quantitative understanding of the aerosol-humidity relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Letter to the Editor [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Household air pollution from use of solid fuels is a major contributor to the national burden of disease in India. Currently available models of advanced combustion biomass cook-stoves (ACS) report significantly higher efficiencies and lower emissions in the laboratory when compared to traditional cook-stoves, but relatively little is known about household level exposure reductions, achieved under routine conditions of use. We report results from initial field assessments of six commercial ACS models from the states of Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh in India. We monitored 72 households (divided into six arms to each receive an ACS model) for 24-h kitchen area concentrations of PM2.5 and CO before and (1-6 months) after installation of the new stove together with detailed information on fixed and time-varying household characteristics. Detailed surveys collected information on user perceptions regarding acceptability for routine use. While the median percent reductions in 24-h PM2.5 and CO concentrations ranged from 2 to 71% and 10-66%, respectively, concentrations consistently exceeded WHO air quality guideline values across all models raising questions regarding the health relevance of such reductions. Most models were perceived to be sub-optimally designed for routine use often resulting in inappropriate and inadequate levels of use. Household concentration reductions also run the risk of being compromised by high ambient backgrounds from community level solid-fuel use and contributions from surrounding fossil fuel sources. Results indicate that achieving health relevant exposure reductions in solid-fuel using households will require integration of emissions reductions with ease of use and adoption at community scale, in cook-stove technologies. Imminent efforts are also needed to accelerate the progress towards cleaner fuels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under present growth rates of greenhouse gas and black carbon aerosol emissions, global mean temperatures can warm by as much as 2 °C from pre-industrial temperatures by about 2050. Mitigation of the four short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), methane, tropospheric ozone, hydrofluorocarbons and black carbon, has been shown to reduce the warming trend by about 50% (refs , ) by 2050. Here we focus on the potential impact of this SLCP mitigation on global sea-level rise (SLR). The temperature projections under various SLCP scenarios simulated by an energy-balance climate model are integrated with a semi-empirical SLR model, derived from past trends in temperatures and SLR, to simulate future trends in SLR. A coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model is also used to estimate SLR trends due to just the ocean thermal expansion. Our results show that SLCP mitigation can have significant effects on SLR. It can decrease the SLR rate by 24-50% and reduce the cumulative SLR by 22-42% by 2100. If the SLCP mitigation is delayed by 25 years, the warming from pre-industrial temperature exceeds 2 °C by 2050 and the impact of mitigation actions on SLR is reduced by about a third. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter; PM2.5), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate. Objectives: We examined the air quality and health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20–40 years. Methods: We simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM2.5‑ and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration–response functions. Results: We estimated that, for PM2.5 and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23–34% and 7–17% and avoid 0.6–4.4 and 0.04–0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM2.5 relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration–response function. Conclusions: In addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by model spatial resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past century, the total material wealth of humanity has been enhanced. However, in the twenty-first century, we face scarcity in critical resources, the degradation of ecosystem services, and the erosion of the planet's capability to absorb our wastes. Equity issues remain stubbornly difficult to solve. This situation is novel in its speed, its global scale and its threat to the resilience of the Earth System. The advent of the Anthropence, the time interval in which human activities now rival global geophysical processes, suggests that we need to fundamentally alter our relationship with the planet we inhabit. Many approaches could be adopted, ranging from geo-engineering solutions that purposefully manipulate parts of the Earth System to becoming active stewards of our own life support system. The Anthropocene is a reminder that the Holocene, during which complex human societies have developed, has been a stable, accommodating environment and is the only state of the Earth System that we know for sure can support contemporary society. The need to achieve effective planetary stewardship is urgent. As we go further into the Anthropocene, we risk driving the Earth System onto a trajectory toward more hostile states from which we cannot easily return. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At last, all the major emitters of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have agreed under the Copenhagen Accord that global average temperature increase should be kept below 2 °C. This study develops the criteria for limiting the warming below 2 °C. identifies the constraints imposed on policy makers, and explores available mitigation avenues. One important criterion is that the radiant energy added by human activities should not exceed 2.5 (range: 1.7-4) watts per square meter (Wm-2) of the Earth's surface. The blanket of man-made GHGs has already added 3 (range: 2.6-3.5) Wm-2. Even if GHG emissions peak in 2015, the radiant energy barrier will be exceeded by 100%. requiring simultaneous pursuit of three avenues: (1) reduce the rate of thickening of the blanket by stabilizing CO2 concentration below 441 ppm during this century (a massive decarbonization of the energy sector is necessary to accomplish this Herculean task), (ii) ensure that air pollution laws that reduce the masking effect of cooling aerosols be made radiant energy-neutral by reductions in black carbon and ozone, and (iii) thin the blanket by reducing emissions of short-lived GHGs. Methane and hydrofluorocarbons emerge as the prime targets. These actions, even if we are restricted to available technologies for avenues II and iii, can reduce the probability of exceeding the 2 °C barrier before 2050 to less than 10%, and before 2100 to less than 50%. With such actions, the four decades we have until 2050 should be exploited to develop and scale-up revolutionary technologies to restrict the warming to less than 1.5 °C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the study "Markedly Enhanced Absorption and Direct Radiative Forcing of Black Carbon Under Polluted Urban Environments" by J. Peng and colleagues, that was published within the issue. Topics covered include the implications on climate by the constrained coating-enhancement of black carbon (BC) absorption, direct radiative forcing difference between fully aged and fresh BC particles, and climate model simulations.

Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of "dangerous anthropogenic interference" (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for "early," "urgent," "rapid," and "fast-action" mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define "fast-action" to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2-3 years, be substantially implemented in 5-10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO2 GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric brown clouds are mostly the result of biomass burning and fossil fuel consumption. They consist of a mixture of light-absorbing and light-scattering aerosols and therefore contribute to atmospheric solar heating and surface cooling. The sum of the two climate forcing terms—the net aerosol forcing effect—is thought to be negative and may have masked as much as half of the global warming attributed to the recent rapid rise in greenhouse gases. There is, however, at least a fourfold uncertainty in the aerosol forcing effect. Atmospheric solar heating is a significant source of the uncertainty, because current estimates are largely derived from model studies. Here we use three lightweight unmanned aerial vehicles that were vertically stacked between 0.5 and 3 km over the polluted Indian Ocean. These unmanned aerial vehicles deployed miniaturized instruments measuring aerosol concentrations, soot amount and solar fluxes. During 18 flight missions the three unmanned aerial vehicles were flown with a horizontal separation of tens of metres or less and a temporal separation of less than ten seconds, which made it possible to measure the atmospheric solar heating rates directly. We found that atmospheric brown clouds enhanced lower atmospheric solar heating by about 50 per cent. Our general circulation model simulations, which take into account the recently observed widespread occurrence of vertically extended atmospheric brown clouds over the Indian Ocean and Asia, suggest that atmospheric brown clouds contribute as much as the recent increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases to regional lower atmospheric warming trends. We propose that the combined warming trend of 0.25 K per decade may be sufficient to account for the observed retreat of the Himalayan glaciers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors discuss the political aspects of reducing levels of soot and short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). They states that the decrease in levels of the pollutants is supposed to help governments build confidence regarding feasibility of mitigating climate change and note that with the availability of technology the cutting the levels of SLPCs has become possible. They highlight the pertinence of agreements like United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Focuses on the objectives of the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASAs) earth observing systems (EOSs), the clouds and the earth radiant energy system (CERES). Utilization of data from a combination of spaceborne instruments in an attempt to accomplish these goals; Information on the CERES scanners; Usefulness of the CERES cloud and radiative flux data products.

In this Viewpoint, authors from the Vatican, academic medicine, and climate sciences highlight areas of consensus about climate change in their respective health, science, and faith communities and call for global collaboration to mitigate its effects, reduce health disparities, and improve human health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]