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Youth with intellectual and developmental disabilities typically have higher rates of tics and stereotypies compared to children with otherwise typical development. Differentiating between these two pediatric movement disorders can be challenging due to overlapping clinical features, but is relevant due to distinct treatment modalities. The current study evaluated sensitivity and specificity of a tic screening measure, the Motor or Vocal Inventory of Tics (MOVeIT) in a pediatric sample enriched for stereotypy and tics. Children (n = 199, age 2–15 years old) receiving care in a developmental-behavioral pediatrics clinic underwent a gold-standard diagnostic assessment by a tic expert; these evaluations were compared to the MOVeIT. The MOVeIT demonstrated good sensitivity (89.8%) and relatively lower specificity (57.1%) compared to tic expert for detecting tics in the overall sample. Specificity of the MOVeIT to identify tics improved to 75% when excluding children with co-occurring stereotypy. For children with tics and co-occurring stereotypy, sensitivity remained high (91.9%) but specificity was low (39.1%). The area under the curve (AUC) value to detect tics on the MOVeIT compared to the tic expert gold standard was significantly higher for children without stereotypy (AUC = 85.7%) than those with stereotypy (AUC = 64.3%, p <.01). Overall, the ability to detect tics was better in those without co-occurring stereotypy symptoms. Further work is needed to establish the utility of the MOVeIT in populations where there is a high likelihood of co-occurring tics and stereotypy and in general population settings. Accurate distinction between tics and stereotypy will guide choices for intervention and anticipatory guidance for families. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological restoration is considered an essential activity as we attempt to repair anthropogenic degradation. Yet, resources are limited and it is important that efforts focus on activities that are effective and yield successful restoration. Structured decision making (SDM) is an organized framework that is designed to incorporate differing values across stakeholders and evaluate alternatives. The SDM framework typically consists of six steps: define the decision problem, define objectives and evaluation criteria, develop alternatives, estimate consequences, evaluate trade-offs, and decide, implement, and monitor. Here, we posit that SDM is well suited for ecological restoration, yet remains underused. Specifically, tools such as stakeholder surveys, conceptual modeling, and multi-criteria decision analysis are notably useful in ecological restoration and can be applied under the SDM framework to ensure robust and transparent decision making. We illustrate the application of SDM to ecological restoration with case studies that used SDM alongside ecosystem service assessments, for species-as-risk management, and to assess action desirability across large and diverse stakeholder groups. Finally, we demonstrate how SDM is equipped to handle many of the challenges associated with ecological restoration by identifying commonalities. We contend that increased use of SDM for ecological restoration by environmental managers has the potential to yield wise use of limited resources and more effective restoration outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a number of new physical systems that may be addressed using methods of time dependent transformation. A recap of results available for two-state systems is given, with particular emphasis on the AC Stark effect. We give some results that are not well known, including the full solution for a two state system in a static electric field with arbitrary direction. Connection with established theorems in time optimal quantum control is given, and a full discussion outlines some advanced results in matrix calculus. In particular, we derive a set of matrix gates relevant to quantum information theory and computation using time optimal unitary operators, and define the hyperbolic equivalent of the quantum brachistochrone problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Conservation Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Introduction: In light of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, protecting vulnerable groups has become a high priority. Persons at risk of severe disease, for example, those receiving immunosuppressive therapies for chronic inflammatory cdiseases (CIDs), are prioritised for vaccination. However, data concerning generation of protective antibody titres in immunosuppressed patients are scarce. Additionally, mRNA vaccines represent a new vaccine technology leading to increased insecurity especially in patients with CID.Objective: Here we present for the first time, data on the efficacy and safety of anti-SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines in a cohort of immunosuppressed patients as compared with healthy controls.Methods: 42 healthy controls and 26 patients with CID were included in this study (mean age 37.5 vs 50.5 years). Immunisations were performed according to national guidelines with mRNA vaccines. Antibody titres were assessed by ELISA before initial vaccination and 7 days after secondary vaccination. Disease activity and side effects were assessed prior to and 7 days after both vaccinations.Results: Anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies as well as neutralising activity could be detected in all study participants. IgG titres were significantly lower in patients as compared with controls (2053 binding antibody units (BAU)/mL ±1218 vs 2685±1102). Side effects were comparable in both groups. No severe adverse effects were observed, and no patients experienced a disease flare.Conclusion: We show that SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines lead to development of antibodies in immunosuppressed patients without considerable side effects or induction of disease flares. Despite the small size of this cohort, we were able to demonstrate the efficiency and safety of mRNA vaccines in our cohort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper extends demographers' traditional approaches to estimating local populations using symptomatic data. We augmented those approaches in order to track one community's de facto population—both its permanent residents ("Census population") and other sojourners—and assorted others in residence for shorter spells of time ("impermanent residents"). We illustrate how a new type of mobility data—the anonymous "pings" emitted by people's personal mobile devices—can unveil the presence and mobility patterns of de facto populations within a community by month, week, and day. We use these data to gauge the seasonal ebb and flow of population on Nantucket Island, MA, a seasonal resort community whose effective population far outnumbers its "Census population." We distinguish the following factors: (1) Permanent Residents, for whom Nantucket is their "usual place of residence" and where one votes and files one's tax return; (2) Commuting Workers, who reside off-island and regularly commute to jobs on-island via high-speed ferry or air taxi; and (3) Sojourners of three types: (a) Seasonal residents, most occupying a second home they either own or rent; (b) Seasonal workers, present for several months to fill many hospitality, landscaping, and other temporary jobs from April through September; and (c) Visitors, present for shorter stays, as vacationers or on business. For each segment, we highlight the estimation methodologies we devised and evaluate their strengths and limitations. Our research exemplifies the evolution of traditional demographic methodologies to address practical concerns at local community scales using "Big Data." Resort communities and winter "snowbird" destinations in Sunbelt locales experience regular annual influxes of visitors and/or seasonal residents in particular months. Just as daytime urban populations strain downtown infrastructure and transportation, such impermanent residents—however, brief or lengthy their stay—impose seasonal strains on local infrastructure and public services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To determine risk factors and causes for mortality during childhood in patients with infantile spasms (IS). We describe the overall goals of care for those who died. Methods: This is a retrospective chart review of IS patients born between 2000 and 2011. We examined potential risk factors for mortality, including etiology, neurologic impairment, medication use, persistence of epileptic spasms, and comorbid systemic involvement (requirement for G‐tube feedings, respiratory interventions). For patients who died, we describe cause of death and resuscitation status or end‐of‐life care measures. Results: We identified 150 IS patients with median follow‐up of 12 years. During the study period, 25 (17%) patients died, 13 before 5 years of age. Univariate analysis demonstrated that developmental delay, identifiable etiology, hormonal use for IS, persistence of epileptic spasms, polypharmacy with antiseizure medications, refractory epilepsy, respiratory system comorbidity, and the need for a G‐tube were significant risk factors for mortality. In a multivariate analysis, mortality was predicted by persistence of epileptic spasms (odds ratio [OR] = 4.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.11‐16.67, P =.035) and significant respiratory system comorbidity (OR = 12.75, 95% CI = 2.88‐56.32, P =.001). Mortality was epilepsy‐related in one‐third of patients who died with sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP), accounting for 88% of epilepsy‐related deaths. Most deaths before age 5 years were related to respiratory failure, and SUDEP was less common (17%) whereas SUDEP was more common (45%) with deaths after 5 years. For the majority (67%) of patients with early mortality, an end‐of‐life care plan was in place (based on documentation of resuscitation status, comfort measures, or decision not to escalate medical care). Significance: Mortality at our single‐center IS cohort was 17%, and persistence of epileptic spasms and comorbid respiratory system disorders were the most important determinants of mortality. Early deaths were related to neurological impairments/comorbidities. SUDEP was more common in children who died after 5 years of age than in those who died younger than 5 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: The Supreme Court opinion in Thornburg v. Gingles three decades ago established a three‐prong test whereby a vote dilution claim can be substantiated. This article provides practitioners and social scientists with a working understanding of the operational steps involved in analyzing a vote dilution claim. Methods: A brief primer is offered on how to translate the Gingles preconditions into a set of practical, real‐world tests. At each stage, we buttress these explanations with examples from actual court proceedings. Results: This primer furnishes readers with the basic knowledge necessary to carry out a vote dilution analysis under the current legal standard. Conclusion: While the generic process for conducting a test of vote dilution has been well‐defined by decades of case law, practitioners should be mindful that some aspects of these procedures will continue to be affected by future court proceedings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective. Where population subgroups have distinctly 'young' or 'old' adult age distributions, their observed overall rates of political participation may differ for this demographic reason. Age standardization can quantify the proportion of an observed difference in registration rates attributable to age structural differences between two populations, thereby facilitating comparison of political participation across subgroups. Methods. I illustrate the derivation and interpretation of an age-standardized registration rate. This rate weights a set of observed age-specific registration rates with a standard age distribution to create a hypothetical total (all-ages) registration rate, to afford an undistorted comparison of Hispanic and non-Hispanic white voter registration. Results. For seven communities studied here, differences in adult age structure account for as much as one-third of the observed difference in the voter registration rates of adult Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites in a community. The effect of age structure is most apparent in those communities registering substantial influxes of young-adult Hispanics. Conclusion. Age standardization is a useful technique to control for differences in population structure that may obscure a comparison of political participation across subgroups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The entry into force of the General Agreement on Trade in Services in 1995 marked a new stage in the history of the multilateral system. Given the peculiarities of services trade, the Agreement contains a variety of conceptual innovations, including its extension to transactions (modes of supply), beyond conventional cross-border trade, and various types of non-tariff restrictions. In turn, the new concepts needed time to be absorbed by the ministries and agencies involved, many of which might have been surprised by ‘their’ sectors being covered by a trade agreement and the ensuing government-internal coordination needs. Thus, understandably, the schedules that emerged from the Uruguay Round, which still account for the majority of current commitments, contain a variety of ill-specified entries. Such entries undermine the transparency and predictability of market conditions, thereby affecting trade and investment decisions in services. Poorly specified commitments also give rise to trade disputes. While the scheduling conventions agreed for the Doha Round provided for technical refinements that would leave the substance of commitments unchanged, this possibility was used far more sparingly than could have been expected. Moreover, additional flaws would have been introduced if some of the (preliminary) offers had entered into effect. The following discussion tries to explain the scope for refinements and develop a clearer picture of the commitments warranting correction – whether in the form of a final Doha Round outcome or through negotiation-independent action by WTO Members. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Summary Purpose: The modified Atkins Diet (MAD) is an effective dietary treatment for children with epilepsy. However, adults may have limited access to this therapy because of lack of availability of dietitian or nutrition support or familiarity with the diet by their treating neurologist. This study was designed to investigate the tolerability and efficacy of the MAD administered solely via e-mail to adults with pharmacoresistant epilepsy. Methods: A prospective, open-label, proof-of-principle 3-month study design was employed. Adults were enrolled, instructed on how to self-administer a 20 g carbohydrate per day MAD, and followed by the investigators only via e-mail. There were no clinic visits or dietitian contacts during the study period. Key Findings: Twenty-five participants (median age 30 years [range 18-66 years], 68% female) consented and 22 started the MAD. The median prior anticonvulsants was 5 (range 2-10) and seizure frequency was 5 per week (range 1-140). Urinary ketosis was achieved in 21 participants (95%), of which 16 (76%) reported at least 40 mg/dl (moderate). Twenty-one participants (95%) remained on the MAD at 1 month and 14 (64%) at 3 months. After 1 month, 9 (41%) had >50% seizure reduction including one (5%) with >90% seizure reduction using intent-to-treat analysis. After 3 months, 6 (27%) had >50% seizure reduction including 3 (14%) with >90% seizure reduction. The mean ketogenic ratio was 1.1:1 (fat:carbohydrates and protein) for those who provided a MAD food record at follow-up. Over the study period, the median number of e-mails sent by the participants was 6 (range 1-19). The most frequent side effect was weight loss. Significance: E-mail administration of the MAD to adults with refractory epilepsy appears to be feasible and effective. Therefore, when dietitian or physician support is limited for adult patients with epilepsy, remote access via telemedicine could provide an alternative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This applied demography case study illustrates the practical application of demographic concepts and methods to an issue facing the court. We show how census data can be used to support a legal motion for a change of venue. 'Change of venue,' the legal term for moving a trial to a new location, usually is sought to avoid prejudice against one of the parties to a lawsuit. The case study will interest demographic practitioners, and it can be used as an instructional case in teaching applied demography: students can replicate it using data for any particular pair of populous metropolitan communities. By doing so, students would gain proficiency working with Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) household records-and the person records within household records-to identify and categorize family and nonfamily relationships among household members, and practical experience translating legal issues into questions that can be answered empirically using American Community Survey (ACS) data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Interleukin-23 (IL-23) plays an essential role in driving intestinal pathology in experimental models of both T-cell-dependent and innate colitis. Furthermore, genome-wide association studies have identified several single-nucleotide polymorphisms in the IL-23 receptor (IL-23R) gene that are associated with either susceptibility or resistance to inflammatory bowel disease in humans. Although initially found to support the expansion and maintenance of CD4 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This case study illustrates how applied demographers operate in a politically charged context of competing interests—here, justifying the decision to locate a new public medical school in one medically underserved region rather than another. We show how to use demographic and other data to gauge the magnitude of future demand for physicians; formulate demographic assumptions about the future to serve decisionmakers’ needs; and frame information to help improve decision making through objective analysis. We detail the steps in projecting future physicians per capita using a method based on the economic concept of physician demand rather than the social concept of need. Our method is computationally simple, intuitive, and easily understood by policymakers. Our case study offers applied demographers a practical approach to physician workforce planning and can be used as an instructional exercise for students, assigned to replicate these projections elsewhere and distill their implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many faculty members consider using case studies but not all end up using them. We provide a brief review of what cases are intended to do and identify three ways in which they can be used. We then use an example to illustrate how we have used the case study method in teaching business demography. Among other benefits, we note that the case studies method not only encourages the acquisition of skills by students, but can be used to promote “deep structure learning,” an approach naturally accommodates other features associated with the case studies method—the development of critical thinking skills, the use of real world problems, the emphasis of concepts over mechanics, writing and presentation skills, active cooperative learning and the “worthwhileness” of a course. As noted by others, we understand the limitations of the case study method. However, given its strengths, we believe it has a place in the instructional toolbox for courses in business demography. The fact that courses we teach is a testament to our perceived efficacy of this tool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For business demographers, a noteworthy aspect of national population aging is the course of its onset at local scales, such as neighborhoods and individual city blocks. Across the U. S., particular neighborhoods are evolving through aging in place into de facto retirement communities, populated by elderly residents who continue to live independently. An increasingly common manifestation of this development is the so-called naturally occurring retirement community (NORC)—a neighborhood where adults have stayed on and grown old while younger people have drifted away. NORCs materialize gradually over time where initial cohorts settle in close proximity and age in place, while subsequent younger cohorts move away. These settings offer novel opportunities for prolonging independent living in old age. They constitute distinctive readymade consumer markets as well, especially for businesses that rely on word of mouth. We present a general approach to spotting NORCs. We then consider such enclaves as potential target markets, both for community planners aiming to centralize service delivery to the elderly and for businesses offering types of services that can be bundled profitably for these residential concentrations of elderly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has long been the law in both federal and state courts that '[a] plaintiff who ceases to be a shareholder, whether by reason of a merger or for any other reason, loses standing to continue a derivative suit.' While this so-called 'continuous ownership rule' has been 'rigorously applied', most courts have made two exceptions: 'if the merger itself is the subject of a claim of fraud, being perpetrated merely to deprive shareholders of standing to bring a derivative action; or if the merger is in reality merely a reorganization which does not affect plaintiff's ownership in the business enterprise'. Since 2008, shareholder plaintiffs facing the loss of their standing following either stock-for- stock or cash-out mergers have, in a spate of federal cases, tested the 'fraud exception', and sought refuge in a potential conflict between state and federal law in the hope of avoiding dismissal of their claims. The decisions of the courts addressing those efforts have further refined the scope of the continuous ownership rule and its exceptions, enhanced the uniformity of the law, and have, ultimately, re-affirmed the fundamental principle of corporate law that a corporation's board of directors, and not its shareholders, control the 'business and affairs of a corporation', which includes the authority to commence, defend and control actions on behalf of the corporation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Commercial health plans need member racial/ethnic information to address disparities, but often lack it. We incorporate the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest surname list into a previous Bayesian method that integrates surname and geocoded information to better impute self-reported race/ethnicity. We validate this approach with data from 1,921,133 enrollees of a national health plan. Overall, the new approach correlated highly with self-reported race-ethnicity (0.76), which is 19% more efficient than its predecessor (and 41% and 108% more efficient than single-source surname and address methods, respectively, P < 0.05 for all). The new approach has an overall concordance statistic (area under the Receiver Operating Curve or ROC) of 0.93. The largest improvements were in areas where prior performance was weakest (for Blacks and Asians). The new Census surname list accounts for about three-fourths of the variance explained in the new estimates. Imputing Native American and multiracial identities from surname and residence remains challenging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To efficiently estimate race/ethnicity using administrative records to facilitate health care organizations' efforts to address disparities when self-reported race/ethnicity data are unavailable.Data Source: Surname, geocoded residential address, and self-reported race/ethnicity from 1,973,362 enrollees of a national health plan.Study Design: We compare the accuracy of a Bayesian approach to combining surname and geocoded information to estimate race/ethnicity to two other indirect methods: a non-Bayesian method that combines surname and geocoded information and geocoded information alone. We assess accuracy with respect to estimating (1) individual race/ethnicity and (2) overall racial/ethnic prevalence in a population.Principal Findings: The Bayesian approach was 74 percent more efficient than geocoding alone in estimating individual race/ethnicity and 56 percent more efficient in estimating the prevalence of racial/ethnic groups, outperforming the non-Bayesian hybrid on both measures. The non-Bayesian hybrid was more efficient than geocoding alone in estimating individual race/ethnicity but less efficient with respect to prevalence (p<.05 for all differences).Conclusions: The Bayesian Surname and Geocoding (BSG) method presented here efficiently integrates administrative data, substantially improving upon what is possible with a single source or from other hybrid methods; it offers a powerful tool that can help health care organizations address disparities until self-reported race/ethnicity data are available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landlords and realtors occasionally are identified as causal agents in the creation or maintenance of segregated neighborhoods. The existence of racial/ethnic separation at local scales, however, is no sure proof of illegal discriminatory acts or intentions by housing market agents. Other factors can and do produce racial/ethnic separation within neighborhoods. Applied demographic analysis can play a part in clarifying what constitutes discrimination and in evaluating the statistical data used to screen for unlawful acts of discrimination within local housing markets. We report a study of tenancy and tenancy turnover in a group of apartment buildings located in a densely settled and ethnically diverse neighborhood in Los Angeles. Turnover in these buildings altered the ethnic mix of tenants, increasing the Asian proportion and decreasing the Hispanic proportion. We trace this change to two market processes that differentiate tenants economically and by differing preferences for luxurious housing: (1) an upgrading of housing stock, which repositioned certain rental units at a higher price point; and (2) the market response to newly-available luxury units. These processes promote ethnically homogeneous apartment-building “neighborhoods” within an otherwise unsegregated ethnically diverse area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parents often expect immediate seizure improvement after starting the ketogenic diet (KD) for their children. The purpose of this study was to determine the typical time to seizure reduction as well as the time after which it was unlikely to be helpful in those children started on the KD. Records of all children started on the KD at Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore (n = 83) and Children's Memorial Hospital, Chicago (n = 35) from November 2003 to December 2006 were examined to determine the first day in which seizures were reportedly improved. Of the 118 children started on the KD, 99 (84%) had documented seizure reduction. The overall median time to first improvement was 5 days (range: 1–65 days). Seventy-five percent of children improved within 14 days. In those children who were fasted at KD onset, the time to improvement was quicker (median 5 vs. 14 days, p < 0.01) with a higher percentage improving within 5 days (60% vs. 31%, p = 0.01). No difference was identified between fasting and nonfasting in regards to long-term outcomes, however. The KD works quickly when effective, typically within the first 1–2 weeks. Starting the KD after a fasting period may lead to a more rapid, but equivalent long-term seizure reduction, confirming prior reports. If the KD has not led to seizure reduction after 2 months, it can probably be discontinued. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For many community colleges, expanding enrollment demands coincide with shrinking resources, confronting policymakers with multiple competing constituencies of discouraged college-goers. At issue are whether community college enrollments are keeping pace with local growth among the subpopulations that typically attend community colleges; how enrollment levels might differ had participation rates remained unchanged; and which specific population groups, in which subareas of an overall region, are most affected by funding constraints. These issues focus attention on identifying and measuring the diverse populations such colleges serve. We present methods for tracking those populations (1) to gauge how completely (or incompletely) the local community college-going population is enrolling in various campuses, and (2) to delineate the functional service areas of individual campuses. Our methods have applicability to the needs of community college systems generally, especially where the size and geographic distribution of their populations are changing significantly through, for example, immigrant influx and regional expansion. These methods and measures add to the applied demographer’s repertoire of techniques for strengthening local decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Objectives This article examines suicide deaths among Canadians aged 10 or older between 1979 and 1998. It also examines hospital records for 1998/99 to provide some insight into suicide attempts. Data sources Data are mainly from the Vital Statistics Database, the Hospital Morbidity Database, and the Person-oriented Information Database. Supplementary data are from the Adult Correctional Services and Homicide surveys, the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth, and the World Health Organization. Analytical techniques Age-standardized rates for suicide deaths and hospitalized suicide attempts were calculated by sex and province/territory for Canadians aged 10 or older. Age- and sex-specific rates for suicide deaths and parasuicide-related hospitalizations were also calculated for seven age groups. Main results The suicide death rate remained fairly stable between 1979 and 1998. The suicide rate of males was four times that of females, but females were hospitalized for attempted suicide at about one and a half times the rate of males. In 1998/99, about 9% of individuals who were hospitalized for an attempted suicide had been discharged more than once for a suicide attempt the same year. INSETS: Methods;Limitations;Murder - Suicide;Suicide in correctional institutions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper projects school enrollments in Santa Ana, California and evaluates the accuracy of the projections. It emphasizes the distinctive aspects of a local setting undergoing substantial immigrant influx and highlights the uncertainties that must be addressed. I adapt existing forecasting approaches to such local situations, match assumptions to future unknowns, and devise "early warning" thresholds keyed to timely decision making. This hybrid approach offers forecasters a useful point of departure in local settings dominated by wide margins of uncertainty and inherently risky assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population turnover, cohort survival, and intercohort transmission of effects are concepts widely applicable beyond the customary domains of demographic analysis. One such application involves a cohort of victims referenced in time and place by a common harm for which legal redress is sought through a class-action lawsuit. Two instructional case studies illustrate applications of demographic reasoning and data to certain generic questions such litigation may pose: How many claimants will remain by some future date? How prevalent will they then be in the population? How feasible will it be to redress the harm years later? These cases illustrate the use of familiar demographic concepts and simple demographic reasoning to draw legally relevant conclusions from available data. Specific instructional applications include: accounting for demographic factors that deplete the original class over time and dilute its surviving members among residents at the referenced place; integrating the use of administrative record, census, and vital statistics data; and devising approximate estimates of turnover within local populations. Training is broadly suited to assignments aimed at applying common-sense demographic reasoning to devise nonstandard solutions to measurement problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The past half century has witnessed major changes in long-term patterns of fertility, mortality, and labor force participation. These changes have fundamentally altered the terms of the social compact between generations that is embodied in Social Security. By creating an imbalance between Social Security recipients and donors, demographic change has undermined support for intergenerational transfers, altered the consequences of existing legislation, and created constituencies for new laws. The element of demographic surprise can be reduced, however, by continually reappraising the assumptions underlying projections of the numbers of donors and recipients. Wide fluctuations in U.S. fertility during this century have left an indelible imprint on the population's age structure. Owing to the unevenness of that structure, some age groups within the population will expand while others simultaneously will contract. The far-reaching implications of this process are now widely recognized. If fertility remains near its present level, and mortality conditions follow the Census Bureau's projected course of gradual improvement, the "graying" of the U.S. population will assume these proportions.

The article enumerates the approaches of the government to improve unemployment. Secretary of State for Employment Tom King has recognized that the creation of jobs and the reduction of unemployment is a big challenge for the nation. In the White Paper, "Employment: The Challenge for the Nation" reiterated the responsibility of the government to become competitive and efficient. Several schemes were developed by the government to help the unemployed including the Youth Training Scheme and the Community Programme.

This article examines how underlying demography can shape minority empowerment in the United States. Structural factors include the differences among groups along lines of age and citizenship-factors that determine who can participate politically. Disparities among groups in the fraction who are adult citizens affect the relative numbers within each group who are eligible to vote or to serve as jurors. Socioeconomic factors often compound the above effects, influencing the likelihood that people eligible to participate will actually do so. Geographically, one group's degree of spatial concentration relative to others in the population determines how fully its numbers can influence or dominate electoral choice within single-member election districts. Demographic changes often go unrecognized until they confront the nation with new needs on a widespread scale. Empowering protected minority groups has emerged as a national issue, notably in California, because of the state's racial and ethnic diversity. Implementation of the Voting Rights Act requires close attention to the racial/ethnic concentration in local voting-age citizen populations. The law has buttressed efforts to empower particular minorities by concentrating their numbers in a single political district.

We examine repeat migration sequences in the United States especially those that entail a return, using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Our guiding hypotheses derive from the concepts of location-specific capital and imperfect information. Descriptive analysis elucidates the dynamics, tempo, and differential frequency of repeat migration among various socioeconomic groups. Results disclose difference among migrants who choose to return or move onward to a new location, or do not move again, and lend support to our analytical framework. Major findings are: (1) the propensity to return to an area varies directly with the amount of location-specific capital that is left behind and inversely with the ex-resident's length of absence, (2) which repeat migration sequence unfolds--return or onward--depends on the ex-resident's educational level and experience of unemployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This instructional case study illustrates applications of demographic concepts, data, and techniques in evaluating affirmative action goals for equalizing employment opportunity. Courts of law addressing employment discrimination disputes need an accurate picture of each minority group's proportion in a pool of prospective employees. The demographic and socioeconomic factors conditioning those proportions vary from place to place. In the situation examined here, the court originally used an imperfect population standard to set hiring goals. The case traces the multiple failures to account for those conditioning influences and describes the resulting distortions of legal purpose. In analyzing this failure, students gain experience in clarifying issues in dispute, devising measures to fit legal standards, and delineating qualified labor pools. Specific instructional applications include: using census data to document how local population structure and composition determine each minority group's presence in the workforce; and using administrative data to delineate the relevant labor pools for setting affirmative action goals. Training is broadly suited to assignments where applied demographers must delineate the ethnic and racial composition of a pool of workers eligible to be hired or promoted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do Latinos gain local political power, given their demographic proportions and characteristics in a community's population? This paper examines the influences of population structure, socioeconomic factors, and residential patterns on the process by which Latinos have translated their numbers into an effective political presence in five California cities. The distinctive routes to empowerment evidenced in these cities reveal the varied possibilities local demographic settings may offer and the sensitivity of different election systems to those settings. Two alternatives are considered: (1) a change from election at large to election by single-member district, or (2) augmentation of Latinos' citywide voting strength in deciding the second- or third-place winner in a multi-member at-large election format. The findings can inform local districting efforts planned around the 2000 census. Their implications extend more broadly to courts applying laws intended to safeguard minority voting rights; and to public policies aimed at balancing interests that unify a community and those that may divide its members. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This case study illustrates how applied demographic analysis can help structure business decisionmaking. We screened every one of several thousand square miles within metropolitan Southern California to identify the 10 best locations for a large supermarket catering to onestop shoppers. Locations were selected based on potential sales volume (irrespective of nearby competitors), future stability of the resident consumer base, and specific demographic factors likely to enhance sales potential among target shoppers (e.g., dual-earner families). The client placed as much importance on how the results were derived as on our recommendations. As a result, our analytic framework for comparing high-potential locations played a central role in structuring the client's thinking. This framework, together with the empirical analysis, illustrate how applied demographers can operationalize business questions about consumer markets and guide a client toward a more systematic way of reaching decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distinctive issues arise when a demographer must forecast enrollments in a context of court-ordered desegregation. The key issue studied here is whether magnet schools have strengthened a district's overall attractiveness to enrollees from outside or merely siphoned students away from other nonmagnet schools within the district, without any real districtwide enrollment gain. To clarify this issue, I analyze patterns of change in grade progression rates over several years as magnet schools were phased in at a large urban school district. Generally, magnet schools induced little actual gain, merely slowing the overall weakening of districtwide retention. These findings furnished an important 'reality check' on the judgment for crafting appropriate forecasting assumptions and the resulting forecast proved reasonably accurate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surname analysis is a potentially useful technique for identifying members of particular racial, ethnic, or language communities within a population. We review the existing state of the art for identifying persons of Hispanic or Asian origin, based on surnames distinctive of each group. We describe the logic of surname analysis, profile several available surname dictionaries, and illustrate their applications in local redistricting. Results of our ongoing validation studies suggest promising future directions for improving accuracy and broadening applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How a minority group's demographic presence in a district translates into a presence among the voters in that district is a matter of growing importance to political scientists and courts. This paper examines technical problems in measuring the concentration of Hispanic voting strength among the eligible voters in an election district. We document and analyze several limitations with existing demographic data in localities where a minority has a distinctive citizenship, ethnic, and age makeup. Our findings show how different measurement techniques may distort or clarify one's view of local Hispanic voting strength. County-wide measures of age and citizenship have a generic limitation: using such measures to infer the character of particular county sub-areas may falsely inflate the apparent voting strength of Hispanics. Other specific limitations relate to (1) the use of voting-age population (or self-reported voting-age citizens) in gauging the actual concentration of Hispanic registrants in an area and (2) the definition of 'Hispanic' itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]