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Introduction: Terrestrial species in riverine ecosystems face unique constraints leading to diverging patterns of population structure, connectivity, and disease dynamics. Desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) in Grand Canyon National Park, a large native population in the southwestern USA, offer a unique opportunity to evaluate population patterns and processes in a remote riverine system with ongoing anthropogenic impacts. We integrated non-invasive, invasive, and citizen-science methods to address questions on abundance, distribution, disease status, genetic structure, and habitat fragmentation. Methods: We compiled bighorn sightings collected during river trips by park staff, commercial guides, and private citizens from 2000-2018 and captured bighorn in 2010-2016 to deploy GPS collars and test for disease. From 2011-2015, we noninvasively collected fecal samples and genotyped them at 9-16 microsatellite loci for individual identification and genetic structure. We used assignment tests to evaluate genetic structure and identify subpopulations, then estimated gene flow and recent migration to evaluate fragmentation. We used spatial capturerecapture to estimate annual population size, distribution, and trends after accounting for spatial variation in detection with a resource selection function model. Results and discussion: From 2010-2018, 3,176 sightings of bighorn were reported, with sightings of 56-145 bighorn annually on formal surveys. From 2012-2016, bighorn exhibiting signs of respiratory disease were observed along the river throughout the park. Of 25 captured individuals, 56% were infected by Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae, a key respiratory pathogen, and 81% were recently exposed. Pellet sampling for population estimation from 2011-2015 yielded 1,250 genotypes and 453 individuals. We detected 6 genetic clusters that exhibited mild to moderate genetic structure (FST 0.022-0.126). The river, distance, and likely topography restricted recent gene flow, but we detected cross-river movements in one section via genetic recaptures, no subpopulation appeared completely isolated, and genetic diversity was among the highest reported. Recolonization of one large stretch of currently empty habitat appears limited by the constrained topology of this system. Annual population estimates ranged 536-552 (95% CrI range 451-647), lamb:ewe ratios varied, and no significant population decline was detected. We provide a multi-method sampling framework useful for sampling other wildlife in remote riverine systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptive management has emerged as the prevailing approach for combining environmental research and management to advance science and policy. Adaptive management, as originally formulated by Carl Walters in 1986, depends on the use of Bayesian models to provide a framework to accumulate knowledge. The emergence of ecological forecasting using the Bayesian framework has provided robust tools and supports a new approach to informing adaptive management, which can be particularly useful in developing policy for managing infectious disease in wildlife. We used the potential infection of elk populations with chronic wasting disease in the Jackson Valley of Wyoming and the National Elk Refuge as a model system to show how Bayesian forecasting can support adaptive management in anticipation of management challenges. The core of our approach resembles the sex‐ and age‐structured, discrete time models used to support management decisions on elk harvest throughout western North America. Our model differs by including stages for CWD‐infected and unaffected animals. We used data on population counts, sex and age classification, and CWD testing, as well as results from prior research, in a Bayesian statistical framework to predict model parameters and the number of animals in each age, sex, and disease stage over time. Initial forecasts suggested CWD may reach a mean prevalence in the population of 12%, but uncertainty in this forecast is large and we cannot rule out a mean forecasted prevalence as high as 20%. Using recruitment rates observed during the last two decades, the model predicted that a CWD prevalence of 7% in females would cause the population growth rate (λ) to drop below 1, resulting in population declines even when female harvest was zero. The primary value of this ecological forecasting approach is to provide a framework to assimilate data with understanding of disease processes to enable continuous improvement in understanding the ecology of CWD and its management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Field Ornithology is the property of Resilience Alliance and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Surveillance is critical for early detection of emerging and re‐emerging infectious diseases. Weighted surveillance leverages heterogeneity in infection risk to increase sampling efficiency.Here, we apply a Bayesian approach to estimate weights for 16 surveillance classes of white‐tailed deer in Wisconsin, USA, relative to hunter‐harvested yearling males. We used these weights to conduct a surveillance programme for detecting chronic wasting disease (CWD) in white‐tailed deer at Shenandoah National Park (SHEN) in Virginia, USA.Generally, for surveillance, risk of infection increased with age and was greater in males. Clinical suspect deer had the highest risk, with weight estimates of 33.33 and 9.09 for community‐reported and hunter‐reported suspect deer, respectively. Fawns had the lowest risk with an estimated weight of 0.001.We used surveillance weights for Wisconsin deer to determine sampling effort required to detect a CWD‐positive case in SHEN if prevalence in yearling males ≥0.025. The sampling required to detect CWD was 37–91 adult deer, depending on the adult male:female ratio in the surveillance stream. We collected rectal biopsies from 49 female and 21 male adult deer, and 10 additional samples from vehicle‐killed deer. CWD was not detected and we concluded with 95% probability that prevalence in the reference population (yearling males) was between 0.0% and 3.6%.Synthesis and applications. Our approach allows managers to estimate relative surveillance weights for different host classes and quantify limits of disease detection in real time when only a sample of animals from a population can be tested, resulting in considerable cost savings for agencies performing wildlife disease detection surveillance. Additionally, it provides a rigorous means of estimating prevalence limits when a disease/pathogen is not detected in a sample set. It is therefore applicable to other wildlife, domestic animal and human disease systems, which can be characterized by surveillance classes with heterogeneous probability of infection. This methodology is also extendable to other disciplines such as invasive species, environmental toxicology, and generally, any ecological question seeking to efficiently use scarce financial and human resources to maximize the detection probability of a rare event. Our approach allows managers to estimate relative surveillance weights for different host classes and quantify limits of disease detection in real time when only a sample of animals from a population can be tested, resulting in considerable cost savings for agencies performing wildlife disease detection surveillance. Additionally, it provides a rigorous means of estimating prevalence limits when a disease/pathogen is not detected in a sample set. It is therefore applicable to other wildlife, domestic animal and human disease systems, which can be characterized by surveillance classes with heterogeneous probability of infection. This methodology is also extendable to other disciplines such as invasive species, environmental toxicology, and generally, any ecological question seeking to efficiently use scarce financial and human resources to maximize the detection probability of a rare event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Accurate assessment of abundance forms a central challenge in population ecology and wildlife management. Many statistical techniques have been developed to estimate population sizes because populations change over time and space and to correct for the bias resulting from animals that are present in a study area but not observed. The mobility of individuals makes it difficult to design sampling procedures that account for movement into and out of areas with fixed jurisdictional boundaries. Aerial surveys are the gold standard used to obtain data of large mobile species in geographic regions with harsh terrain, but these surveys can be prohibitively expensive and dangerous. Estimating abundance with ground‐based census methods have practical advantages, but it can be difficult to simultaneously account for temporary emigration and observer error to avoid biased results. Contemporary research in population ecology increasingly relies on telemetry observations of the states and locations of individuals to gain insight on vital rates, animal movements, and population abundance. Analytical models that use observations of movements to improve estimates of abundance have not been developed. Here we build upon existing multi‐state mark–recapture methods using a hierarchical N‐mixture model with multiple sources of data, including telemetry data on locations of individuals, to improve estimates of population sizes. We used a state‐space approach to model animal movements to approximate the number of marked animals present within the study area at any observation period, thereby accounting for a frequently changing number of marked individuals. We illustrate the approach using data on a population of elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) in Northern Colorado, USA. We demonstrate substantial improvement compared to existing abundance estimation methods and corroborate our results from the ground based surveys with estimates from aerial surveys during the same seasons. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian N‐mixture model using multiple sources of data on abundance, movement and survival to estimate the population size of a mobile species that uses remote conservation areas. The model improves accuracy of inference relative to previous methods for estimating abundance of open populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pathogens can exert a large influence on the evolution of hosts via selection for alleles or genotypes that moderate pathogen virulence. Inconsistent interactions between parasites and the host genome, such as those resulting from genetic linkages and environmental stochasticity, have largely prevented observation of this process in wildlife species. We examined the prion protein gene (PRNP) in North American elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) populations that have been infected with chronic wasting disease (CWD), a contagious, fatal prion disease, and compared allele frequency to populations with no history of exposure to CWD. The PRNP in elk is highly conserved and a single polymorphism at codon 132 can markedly extend CWD latency when the minor leucine allele (132L) is present. We determined population exposure to CWD, genotyped 1,018 elk from five populations, and developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to examine the relationship between CWD prevalence and PRNP 132L allele frequency. Populations infected with CWD for at least 30-50 y exhibited 132L allele frequencies that were on average twice as great (range = 0.23-0.29) as those fromuninfected populations (range = 0.04-0.17). Despite numerous differences between the elk populations in this study, the consistency of increase in 132L allele frequency suggests pathogen-mediated selection has occurred due to CWD. Although prior modeling work predicted that selection will continue, the potential for fitness costs of the 132L allele or new prion protein strains to arise suggest that it is prudent to assume balancing selection may prevent fixation of the 132L allele in populations with CWD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscape genetic studies based on neutral genetic markers have contributed to our understanding of the influence of landscape composition and configuration on gene flow and genetic variation. However, the potential for species to adapt to changing landscapes will depend on how natural selection influences adaptive genetic variation. We demonstrate how landscape resistance models can be combined with genetic simulations incorporating natural selection to explore how the spread of adaptive variation is affected by landscape characteristics, using desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) in three differing regions of the southwestern United States as an example. We conducted genetic sampling and least-cost path modeling to optimize landscape resistance models independently for each region, and then simulated the spread of an adaptive allele favored by selection across each region. Optimized landscape resistance models differed between regions with respect to landscape variables included and their relationships to resistance, but the slope of terrain and the presence of water barriers and major roads had the greatest impacts on gene flow. Genetic simulations showed that differences among landscapes strongly influenced spread of adaptive genetic variation, with faster spread (1) in landscapes with more continuously distributed habitat and (2) when a pre-existing allele (i.e., standing genetic variation) rather than a novel allele (i.e., mutation) served as the source of adaptive genetic variation. The combination of landscape resistance models and genetic simulations has broad conservation applications and can facilitate comparisons of adaptive potential within and between landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inventory and Monitoring Programs in the National Park Service (NPS) provide information needed to support wise planning, management, and decision making. Mathematical and statistical models play a critical role in this process by integrating data from multiple sources in a way that is honest about uncertainty. We show the utility of Bayesian hierarchical models for supporting decisions on managing natural resources of national parks. These models can assimilate monitoring data to provide true forecasts, resulting in probabilistic predictions of future states of park ecosystems accompanied by rigorous estimates of uncertainty. We discuss a novel approach for communicating these forecasts to decision makers who need to evaluate the probability that NPS goals will be met given different management actions, including the null model of no action. We illustrate how this approach has been used successfully to inform decisions on the elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) population management in Rocky Mountain National Park based on 47 yr of monitoring data. Forecasts from a discrete time, stage-structured population model assimilated with annual census and sex and age classifications are being used annually to help park managers decide on actions needed to meet goals for elk and vegetation. In particular, park managers were able to determine the probability that the elk population would fall within a desired population range, which led to both population reduction actions and no action depending on the year of interest. Moreover, this approach allowed multiple survey methodologies from the last 47 years to be incorporated into a single model with associated estimates of uncertainty. Models like this one are especially useful for adaptive management where continuous improvement in models and data results in long-term improvement in the wisdom of policy and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Investigations of chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal, contagious prion disease of free-ranging cervids, suggest the disease can cause long-term population declines in deer ( Odocoileus spp.). However, the implications of CWD for elk ( Cervus elaphus nelsoni) populations are less certain. During 2008-2010, we used rectal biopsies and telemetry to observe disease transmission and survival in adult female elk from a high-density herd in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) that had been infected by CWD for over 25 years. We studied a cohort of 123 adult female elk that were determined to be free of CWD by rectal biopsy in 2008. Annual incidence of CWD was 0.08 [95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI) = 0.05, 0.12]. Annual survival probabilities of the cohort excluding harvest declined from 0.97 in 2008 (BCI = 0.93, 0.99) to 0.85 in 2010 (BCI = 0.75, 0.93). Declines in survival were attributed almost entirely to CWD; the proportion of radiocollared elk that died of CWD increased from 0.02 in 2008 (BCI = 0.00, 0.05) to 0.11 in 2010 (BCI = 0.04, 0.21). We attributed the increase to the time lag required for development of new CWD cases. We used survival rates of susceptible and infected elk to develop a projection matrix for a discrete time, female only model that estimated the intrinsic population growth rate (λ) of this elk herd to be 1.00 (BCI = 0.93, 1.05) using the prevalence of CWD (12.9%) and calf:cow ratios (24:100) observed during this study. Population declines were predicted to occur when prevalence of CWD exceeded 13% (BCI = 0, 35). However, this estimate was contingent on calf:cow ratios and harvest. Greater recruitment will offset some of the effects of CWD, whereas the inclusion of female harvest, which was excluded from this study, would likely result in lower λ values than those observed in this study. We conclude that CWD can exceed natural rates of mortality, reduce survival of adult females, and decrease population growth of elk herds. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding factors that determine heterogeneity in levels of parasitism across individuals is a major challenge in disease ecology. It is known that genetic makeup plays an important role in infection likelihood, but the mechanism remains unclear as does its relative importance when compared to other factors. We analyzed relationships between genetic diversity and macroparasites in outbred, free-ranging populations of raccoons (Procyon lotor). We measured heterozygosity at 14 microsatellite loci and modeled the effects of both multi-locus and single-locus heterozygosity on parasitism using an information theoretic approach and including non-genetic factors that are known to influence the likelihood of parasitism. The association of genetic diversity and parasitism, as well as the relative importance of genetic diversity, differed by parasitic group. Endoparasite species richness was better predicted by a model that included genetic diversity, with the more heterozygous hosts harboring fewer endoparasite species. Genetic diversity was also important in predicting abundance of replete ticks (Dermacentor variabilis). This association fit a curvilinear trend, with hosts that had either high or low levels of heterozygosity harboring fewer parasites than those with intermediate levels. In contrast, genetic diversity was not important in predicting abundance of non-replete ticks and lice (Trichodectes octomaculatus). No strong single-locus effects were observed for either endoparasites or replete ticks. Our results suggest that in outbred populations multi-locus diversity might be important for coping with parasitism. The differences in the relationships between heterozygosity and parasitism for the different parasites suggest that the role of genetic diversity varies with parasite-mediated selective pressures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within populations the contact rate of hosts and infectious parasites is mediated by the interactions of resource availability, host density, and host behavior. Fluctuations in host density can result in the loss or extinction of a parasite population as contact rates between parasites and susceptible individuals drop below thresholds of parasite population persistence. Less understood is how changes in resources and the behavioral ecology of host populations affect parasites. We used food provisioning to experimentally assess the effects of resource availability and of inducing host aggregation on the endoparasite community of free-ranging raccoons. Twelve independent raccoon populations were subjected to differential resource provisioning for two years: a clumped food distribution to aggregate hosts (n = 5 populations), a dispersed food distribution to add food without aggregating hosts (n = 3), and a no food treatment (n = 4). Remote cameras indicated that aggregation sizes were three to four times greater in aggregated versus non-aggregated populations. We considered endoparasites with direct and indirect life cycles separately and determined the best-fit models of parasite species richness in relation to host aggregation, food supplements, and host age and sex. Social aggregation had a negligible impact on the species richness of directly or indirectly transmitted parasites. However, food additions decreased the number of indirectly transmitted parasite species by 35% in the oldest age classes. These results suggest that while resource availability can influence the transmission of indirectly transmitted parasites, an examination of additional factors will be necessary to understand the role of host contact and factors that shape the community structure of endoparasites in natural environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inverse correlations between genetic variability and parasitism are important concerns for conservation biologists. We examined correlations between neutral genetic variability and the presence of antibodies to canine distemper virus (CDV) and feline parvovirus (FPV) in a free-ranging population of raccoons. Over 3 years there was a strong relationship between age and seroprevalence rates. Most young animals were seronegative to CDV and FPV, but the oldest age class was greater than 80 per cent seropositive to both viruses. CDV-seropositive animals had greater heterozygosity and lower measures of inbreeding compared with CDV-seronegative animals. This relationship was strongest among the youngest animals and did not occur during a 1 year CDVepidemic. In contrast, FPV-seropositive animals only had significantly lower measures of inbreeding in 1 year, perhaps because FPV-associated mortality is relatively low or primarily occurs among very young individuals that were under-represented in our sampling. These results suggest that even in large outcrossing populations, animals with lower heterozygosity and higher measures of inbreeding are less likely to successfully mount an immune response when challenged by highly pathogenic parasites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Parasite transmission depends on the rate at which hosts come into contact with one another or the infectious stages of parasites. However, host contact rates and their influence on parasite transmission are difficult to quantify in natural settings and can fluctuate with host behaviour and the ecological constraints of parasites. 2. We investigated how experimental increases in rates of contact and social aggregation affected ectoparasite prevalence and intensity of free-ranging raccoons ( Procyon lotor). Twelve independent raccoon populations were subjected to differential resource provisions for 2 years: a clumped food distribution to aggregate hosts ( n = 5 aggregated populations), a dispersed food distribution to control for the effects of food without aggregating hosts ( n = 3) and a no food treatment ( n = 4). 3. Remote cameras indicated that aggregation sizes and rates of contact were three to four times greater in aggregated compared with that in non-aggregated populations. The number of ticks (adult Dermacentor variabilis) on raccoons in aggregated populations was 1·5–2·5 times greater from May to July, the primary time of tick seasonal occurrence. Conversely, louse ( Trichodectes octomaculatus) populations were c. 40% sparser on male raccoons in aggregated (compared with that in non-aggregated) populations because of greater overdispersion of lice and a larger number of male hosts harbouring fewer parasites. No treatment-related differences were found among fleas ( Orchopeas howardi). 4. These results were not consistent with our current understanding of parasite transmission; greater rates of host sociality led to increases in a parasite that does not rely on host contact for transmission (ticks) and declines in a parasite that depends on host contact for transmission (lice). We concluded that D. variabilis increased in aggregated sites because they can detect and seek out hosts and were more likely to drop off after obtaining a blood meal and re-attach to raccoons in these locations. Several factors may have contributed to sparser louse populations on male hosts, including a dilution effect that lowered per capita infestation levels. 5. These results indicate that ectoparasites can interact in unique ways with their hosts that are not consistent with other types of parasite species or models of their transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A variety of demographic, seasonal, and site-specific variables may influence parasitism, but the relative importance of these variables is generally unclear. We measured the relative ability of host characteristics, season, and site to explain louse (Trichodectes octomaculatus) and flea (Orchopeas howardi) infestation across 10 populations of raccoons (Procyon lotor). Lice are highly dependent on specific hosts and are predicted to display a relatively strong relationship with factors intrinsic to the host, when compared to fleas, which can infest multiple species and survive off-host for weeks without feeding. We developed a priori models that represented explicit hypotheses and contrasted their ability to predict infestation patterns. While the abundance of lice was seasonal, models that included solely host age and sex best predicted prevalence and abundance, in part because males were infested with 3 times the number of lice than were females. Conversely, flea prevalence and abundance, which peaks sharply in the spring, was best predicted by season; factors intrinsic to the host were relatively unimportant for predicting abundance. These, and other, recent findings emphasize the need to simultaneously assess the relative importance of multiple ecological variables between parasite species when attempting to describe general trends and constraints of host-parasite associations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rana catesbeiana (American Bullfrog) is exotic in western North America and is sympatric with two native species, Rana luteiventris (Columbia Spotted Frog) and Pseudacris regilla (Pacific Treefrog). In a laboratory experiment, we assessed the growth of tadpoles of R. luteiventris and P. regilla in the presence and absence of tadpoles of R. catesbeiana. We found that in the presence of tadpoles of R. catesbeiana, P. regilla exhibited rapid growth in early larval stages compared to R. luteiventris. A second experiment indicated that, when reared with R. catesbeiana, P. regilla increased activity levels; this behavioral disparity may partly explain the observed difference in growth responses of the two frog species to R. catesbeiana competition. Our results suggest that tadpoles of P. regilla display greater growth and behavioral plasticity than do R. luteiventris, when subject to competition with R. catesbeiana. Rana luteiventris may be more susceptible than P. regilla to R. catesbeiana-mediated numerical decline, if exploitative or interference competition between tadpoles is a population-limiting factor in western breeding ponds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Zoology is the property of Canadian Science Publishing and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)