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Turbidity is commonly monitored as an important water quality index. Human activities, such as dredging and dumping operations, can disrupt turbidity levels and should be monitored and analysed for possible effects. In this paper, we model the variations of turbidity in Dublin Bay over space and time to investigate the effects of dumping and dredging while controlling for the effect of wind speed as a common atmospheric effect. We develop a Vector Auto-Regressive Integrated Conditional Heteroskedasticity (VARICH) approach to modelling the dynamical behaviour of turbidity over different locations and at different water depths. We use daily values of turbidity during the years 2017–2018 to fit the model. We show that the results of our fitted model are in line with the observed data and that the uncertainties, measured through Bayesian credible intervals, are well calibrated. Furthermore, we show that the daily effects of dredging and dumping on turbidity are negligible in comparison to that of wind speed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding regional sea level variations is crucial for assessing coastal vulnerability, with accurate sea level data playing a pivotal role. Utilizing historical sea level marigrams can enhance datasets, but current digitization techniques face challenges such as bends and skews in paper charts, impacting sea level values. This study explores often‐overlooked issues during marigram digitization, focusing on the case study of Dún Laoghaire in Ireland (1925–1931). The methodology involves digitizing the original marigram trace and underlying grid to assess offsets at the nearest ft (foot) interval on the paper chart, corresponding to changes in the water level trace for each hour interval. Subtracting the digitized value from the known value (the actual measurement) allows for the determination of differences, which are then subtracted from each hourly trace value. After adjusting for offsets ranging from −3.962 to 13.716 mm (millimetres), the study improves the final accuracy of sea level data to approximately the 10 mm level. Notably, data from 1926 and 1931 exhibit modest offsets (<7 mm), while other years show more substantial offsets (>9–14 mm), emphasizing the importance of adjustments for accuracy. Such 10 mm accuracy is compatible with requirements of the Global Sea Level Observing System. Comparing the adjusted digitized data with other survey data shows similar amplitudes and phases for Dún Laoghaire in both the historical and modern datasets, and there is an overall mean sea level rise of 1.5 mm/year when combined with the available data from the Dublin region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Over 65s are frequent attenders to the Emergency Department (ED) and more than half are admitted for overnight stays. Early assessment and intervention by a dedicated ED-based Health and Social Care Professionals (HSCP) team reduces ED length of stay and the risk of hospital admissions among older adults while improving patient health-related quality-of-life and satisfaction with care. This study aims to evaluate whether augmenting the treatment as usual for older adults admitted to ED is cost-effective. Methods and findings: Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), conducted alongside the OPTI-MEND randomised controlled trial of 353 patients aged ≥65 with lower urgency complaints compared the effectiveness of early assessment and intervention by a dedicated HSCP team in the ED to treatment as usual (TAU). An economic analysis estimated the average cost per older adults randomised to the HSCP team, and compared to TAU, how contact with HSCP team changed health care use, and associated total costs, and estimated the effect of HSCP on Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). Within the OPTI-MEND trial, the average cost of a contact with the HSCP team during ED attendance is estimated to be €801 per patient. Compared to TAU, the incremental QALY of intervention is 0.053 (95% CI: 0.023 to 0.0826, p<0.0001). Accounting for cost savings because of contact with HSCP team, the average incremental saving in the total cost, compared to TAU, is -€6,128 (95% CI: -€9,217 to -€3,038, p<0.0001). Given the incremental health gains and significant cost savings, bootstrapped cost CEA suggests that dedicated HSCP care dominates over TAU for low urgency older adults attending the ED. Conclusions: A dedicated HSCP team in the ED significantly improves overall health for lower acuity older adults and, by reducing inpatient length of stay, results in staggering cost savings. This economic evaluation conducted on the OPTI-MEND trial provides convincing evidence that HSCP should be adopted as part of treatment as usual in Irish EDs. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03739515; registered on 12th November 2018. https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03739515. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial element of the Earth's climate system, is projected to weaken over the course of the twenty-first century which could have far reaching consequences for the occurrence of extreme weather events, regional sea level rise, monsoon regions and the marine ecosystem. The latest IPCC report puts the likelihood of such a weakening as 'very likely'. As our confidence in future climate projections depends largely on the ability to model the past climate, we take an in-depth look at the difference in the twentieth century evolution of the AMOC based on observational data (including direct observations and various proxy data) and model data from climate model ensembles. We show that both the magnitude of the trend in the AMOC over different time periods and often even the sign of the trend differs between observations and climate model ensemble mean, with the magnitude of the trend difference becoming even greater when looking at the CMIP6 ensemble compared to CMIP5. We discuss possible reasons for this observation-model discrepancy and question what it means to have higher confidence in future projections than historical reproductions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Utilisation of the Emergency Department (ED) for non-urgent care increases demand for services, therefore reducing inappropriate or avoidable attendances is an important area for intervention in prevention of ED crowding. This study aims to develop a consensus between clinicians across care settings about the "appropriateness" of attendances to the ED in Ireland. Methods: The Better Data, Better Planning study was a multi-centre, cross-sectional study investigating factors influencing ED utilisation in Ireland. Data was compiled in patient summary files which were assessed for measures of appropriateness by an academic General Practitioner (GP) and academic Emergency Medicine Consultant (EMC) National Panel. In cases where consensus was not reached charts were assessed by an Independent Review Panel (IRP). At each site all files were autonomously assessed by local GP-EMC panels. Results: The National Panel determined that 11% (GP) to 38% (EMC) of n = 306 lower acuity presentations could be treated by a GP within 24-48 h (k = 0.259; p < 0.001) and that 18% (GP) to 35% (EMC) of attendances could be considered "inappropriate" (k = 0.341; p < 0.001). For attendances deemed "appropriate" the admission rate was 47% compared to 0% for "inappropriate" attendees. There was no consensus on 45% of charts (n = 136). Subset analysis by the IRP determined that consensus for appropriate attendances ranged from 0 to 59% and for inappropriate attendances ranged from 0 to 29%. For the Local Panel review (n = 306) consensus on appropriateness ranged from 40 to 76% across ED sites. Conclusions: Multidisciplinary clinicians agree that "inappropriate" use of the ED in Ireland is an issue. However, obtaining consensus on appropriateness of attendance is challenging and there was a significant cohort of complex heterogenous presentations where agreement could not be reached by clinicians in this study. This research again demonstrates the complexity of ED crowding, the introduction of evidence-based care pathways targeting avoidable presentations may serve to alleviate the problem in our EDs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The summer of 2023 experienced several climate extremes, including record-low sea ice in the Antarctic, heatwaves in southern Europe and the southern United States/Mexico, and the highest sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic since satellite records began. In the eastern North Atlantic, west of Ireland, a severe marine heatwave (MHW) occurred, with SSTs reaching 4°C above average. MHWs have a significant impact on ocean ecosystems, and while studies on MHWs in the North Sea and English Channel exist, research on MHWs in Irish waters is limited. The MHW activity in June 2023 was the highest ever recorded in the waters west of Ireland, and there has been a linear positive trend in MHWs in June since 2000. Despite cooling temperatures in Irish waters since 2007, the increase in MHWs suggests that extreme ocean warming is affecting these waters. The MHW of June 2023 could serve as a warning for the future. [Extracted from the article]

We demonstrate the utility and reproducibility of the saltmarsh foraminifera-based 'geological tide gauge' (GTG) approach by developing two independent records of relative sea-level (RSL) change for Dublin, Ireland. Our records, recovered from two different saltmarshes, indicate that RSL rose at a century-scale rate of 1.5 ± 0.9 mm yr-1 over the last 200 years. This compares favourably with the shorter, but more precise, mean sea level (MSL) record from the Dublin Port tide gauge, which indicates long-term (1953-2016 CE) rise at a rate of 1.1 ± 0.5 mm yr-1. When corrected for the influence of glacio-isostatic adjustment our saltmarsh-based reconstruction suggests sea levels in Dublin rose at a rate of 1.6 ± 0.9 mm yr-1 since the start of the 19th century, which is in excellent agreement with the regional value of MSL rise over the same period (1.5 ± 0.2 mm yr-1) calculated from a compilation of tide gauge records around Britain. Whilst our record has decadal-scale temporal resolution (1 sample every 8 years), we are currently unable to resolve multidecadal-scale variations in the rate of sea-level rise which are masked by the size of the vertical uncertainties (± 20 cm) associated with our reconstruction of palaeomarsh-surface elevation. We discuss the challenges of applying the GTG approach in the typically minerogenic saltmarshes of the NE Atlantic margin and outline potential solutions that would facilitate the production of Common Era RSL reconstructions in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The collateral damage of SARS-CoV-2 is a serious concern in the Emergency Medicine (EM) community, specifically in relation to delayed care increasing morbidity and mortality in attendances unrelated to COVID-19. The objectives of this study are to describe the profile of patients attending an Irish ED prior to, and during the pandemic, and to investigate the factors influencing ED utilisation in this cohort.Methods: This was a cross-sectional study with recruitment at three time-points prior to the onset of COVID-19 in December 2019 (n = 47) and February 2020 (n = 57) and post-Lockdown 1 in July 2020 (n = 70). At each time-point all adults presenting over a 24 h period were eligible for inclusion. Clinical data were collected via electronic records and a questionnaire provided information on demographics, healthcare utilisation, service awareness and factors influencing the decision to attend the ED. Data analysis was performed in SPSS and included descriptive and inferential statistics.Results: The demographic and clinical profile of patients across time-points was comparable in terms of age (p = 0.904), gender (p = 0.584) and presenting complaint (p = 0.556). Median length of stay in the ED decreased from 7.25 h (IQR 4.18-11.22) in February to 3.86 h (IQR 0.41-9.14) in July (p ≤ 0.005) and differences were observed in disposition (p ≤ 0.001). COVID-19 influenced decision to attend the ED for 31% of patients with 9% delaying presentation. Post-lockdown, patients were less likely to attend the ED for reassurance (p ≤ 0.005), for a second opinion (p ≤ 0.005) or to see a specialist (p ≤ 0.05).Conclusions: Demographic and clinical presentations of ED patients prior to the first COVID-19 lockdown and during the reopening phase were comparable, however, COVID-19 significantly impacted health-seeking behaviour and operational metrics in the ED at this phase of the pandemic. These findings provide useful information for hospitals with regard to pandemic preparedness and also have wider implications for planning of future health service delivery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal to decadal variations in Northern Hemisphere jet stream latitude and speed over land (Eurasia, North America) and oceanic (North Atlantic, North Pacific) regions are presented for the period 1871–2011 from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset. Significant regional differences are seen on seasonal to decadal timescales. Seasonally, the jet latitude range is lower over the oceans compared to land, reduced from 20° over Eurasia to 10° over the North Atlantic where the ocean meridional heat transport is greatest. The mean jet latitude range is at a minimum in winter (DJF), particularly along the western boundary of the North Pacific and North Atlantic, where the land-sea contrast and SST gradients are strongest. The 141-year trends in jet latitude and speed show differences on a regional basis. The North Atlantic has significant increasing jet latitude trends in all seasons, up to 3° in winter. Eurasia has significant increasing trends in winter and summer, however, no increase is seen across the North Pacific or North America. Jet speed shows significant increases evident in winter (up to 4.7 ms−1), spring and autumn over the North Atlantic, Eurasia and North America however, over the North Pacific no increase is observed. Long term trends are generally overlaid by multidecadal variability, particularly evident in the North Pacific, where 20-year variability in jet latitude and jet speed are seen, associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which explains 50% of the winter variance in jet latitude since 1940. The results highlight that northern hemisphere jet variability and trends differ on a regional basis (North Atlantic, North Pacific, Eurasia and North America) on seasonal to decadal timescales, suggesting that different mechanisms are influencing the jet latitude and speed. This is important from a climate modelling perspective and for climate predictions in the near and longer term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atlantic multidecadal variability is a coherent mode of natural climate variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean, with strong impacts on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. However, its periodicity and drivers are widely debated due to the short temporal extent of instrumental observations and competing effects of both internal and external climate factors acting on North Atlantic surface temperature variability. Here, we use a paleoclimate database and an advanced statistical framework to generate, evaluate, and compare 312 reconstructions of the Atlantic multidecadal variability over the past millennium, based on different indices and regression methods. From this process, the best reconstruction is obtained with the random forest method, and its robustness is checked using climate model outputs and independent oceanic paleoclimate data. This reconstruction shows that memory in variations of Atlantic multidecadal variability have strongly increased recently—a potential early warning signal for the approach of a North Atlantic tipping point. This study presents a last millennium reconstruction of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability fluctuations. This sufficiently long and validated reconstruction suggests the potential approach of a tipping point in the North Atlantic current system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hurricane activity has been higher since 1995 than in the 1970s and 1980s. This rise in activity has been linked to a warming Atlantic. In this study, we consider variability of the volume of water warmer than 26.5 ºC, considered widely to be the temperature threshold crucial to hurricane development. We find the depth of the 26.5 ºC isotherm better correlated with seasonal hurricane counts than SST in the early part of the Atlantic hurricane season in some regions. The volume of water transformed by surface heat fluxes to temperatures above 26.5 ºC is directly calculated using the Water Mass Transformation framework. This volume is compared with the year-to-year changes in the volume of water of this temperature to see how much of the volume can be explained using this calculation. In some years, there is notable correspondence between transformed and observed volume anomalies, but anomalies in other years must be largely associated with other processes, such as the divergence of horizontal heat transport associated with the AMOC. This technique provides evidence that, in a given year, coordinated physical mechanisms are responsible for the build-up of anomalous ocean heat; not only net surface heat exchange but also the convergence of horizontal heat transport from ocean currents, to provide fuel for larger numbers of intense hurricanes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is encouraging evidence that interdisciplinary teams of Health and Social Care Professionals (HSCPs) can enhance patient care in the Emergency Department (ED), especially for older adults with complex needs. However, no formal process evaluations of implementations of ED-based HSCP interventions are available. The study aimed to evaluate the development and delivery of a HSCP team intervention for older adults in the ED of a large Irish teaching hospital. Methods: Using the Medical Research Council (MRC) Framework for process evaluations, we investigated implementation and delivery, mechanisms of impact, and contextual influences on implementation by analysing the HSCP team's activity notes and participant recruitment logs, and by carrying out six interviews and four focus groups with 26 participants (HSCP team members, ED doctors and nurses, hospital staff). Qualitative insights were analysed thematically. Results: The implementation process had three phases (pre-implementation, piloting, and delivery), with the first two described as pivotal to optimise care procedures and build positive stakeholders' involvement. The team's motivation and proactive communication were key to promote acceptability and integration in the ED (Theme 1); also, their specialised skills and interdisciplinary approach enhanced patient and staff's ED experience (Theme 2). The investment and collaboration of multiple stakeholders were described as essential contextual enablers of implementation (Theme 4). Delivering the intervention within a randomised controlled trial fostered credibility but caused frustration among patients and staff (Theme 3). Discussion: This process evaluation is the first to provide in-depth and practical insights on the complexities of developing and delivering an ED-based HSCP team intervention for older adults. Our findings highlight the importance of establishing a team of HSCPs with a strong interdisciplinary ethos to ensure buy-in and integration in the ED processes. Also, actively involving relevant stakeholders is key to facilitate implementation. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03739515; registered on 12th November 2018. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Internationally Emergency Department (ED) crowding is a significant health services delivery issue posing a major risk to population health. ED crowding affects both the quality and access of health services and is associated with poorer patient outcomes and increased mortality rates. In Ireland the practising of "Corridor Medicine" and "Trolley Crises" have become prevalent. The objectives of this study are to describe the demographic and clinical profile of patients attending regional EDs and to investigate the factors influencing ED utilisation in Ireland.Methods: This was a multi-centre, cross-sectional study and recruitment occurred at a selection of urban and rural EDs (n = 5) in Ireland throughout 2020. At each site all adults presenting over a 24 h census period were eligible for inclusion. Clinical data were collected via electronic records and a questionnaire provided information on demographics, healthcare utilisation, service awareness and factors influencing the decision to attend the ED.Results: Demographics differed significantly between ED sites in terms of age (p ≤ 0.05), socioeconomic status (p ≤ 0.001), and proximity of health services (p ≤ 0.001). Prior to ED attendance 64% of participants accessed community health services. Most participants (70%) believed the ED was the "best place" for emergency care or attended due to lack of awareness of other services (30%). Musculoskeletal injuries were the most common reason for presentation to the ED in this study (24%) and almost a third of patients (31%) reported presenting to the ED for an x-ray or scan.Conclusions: This study has identified regional and socioeconomic differences in the drivers of ED presentations and factors influencing ED attendance in Ireland from the patient perspective. Improved awareness of, and provision of alternative care pathways could potentially decrease ED attendances, which would be important in the context of reducing ED crowding during the COVID-19 pandemic. New strategies for integration of acute care in the community must acknowledge and plan for these issues as a universal approach is unlikely to be implemented successfully due to regional factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide an updated sea level dataset for Dublin for the period 1938–2016 at yearly resolution. Using a newly collated sea level record for Dublin Port, as well as two nearby tide gauges at Arklow and Howth Harbour, we perform data quality checks and calibration of the Dublin Port record by adjusting the biased high water level measurements that affect the overall calculation of mean sea level (MSL). To correct these MSL values, we use a novel Bayesian linear regression that includes the mean low water values as a predictor in the model. We validate the re-created MSL dataset and show its consistency with other nearby tide gauge datasets. Using our new corrected dataset, we estimate a rate of sea level rise of 1.1 mm yr -1 during 1953–2016 (95 % credible interval from 0.6 to 1.6 mm yr -1), and a rate of 7 mm yr -1 during 1997–2016 (95 % credible interval from 5 to 8.8 mm yr -1). The overall sea level rise is in line with expected trends, but large multidecadal variability has led to higher rates of rise in recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of regional changes in mean sea level and local changes in tides are crucial to inform effective climate adaptation. An essential element is the availability of accurate observations of sea level. Sea level data in the Republic of Ireland, prior to the establishment of the National Tide Gauge Network in the mid-2000s, are limited but belie a wealth of historical data available in archival form. In this study, we digitize records located in Cork Harbour, Ireland, from 1842 and show how short-duration (6–8 weeks), high-quality data with a large interval to the present can accurately inform tidal and mean sea level changes. We consider error sources in detail. We estimate for the main M2 tidal constituent that the accuracy of these historical measurements is 1 % and 2 min for amplitude and phase, respectively, once adjustments for seasonal and nodal effects are made. Our mean sea level estimates are accurate to the 2 cm level, once adjustments for atmospheric and seasonal effects are made. Our results show tidal stability with a 2 % change in the amplitude of the M2 component, 4 min change in the phase over a period of 177 years, and mean sea level rise of 40 cm in the Cork Harbour area from 1842 to 2019, approximately in line with global mean sea level trends plus local glacial isostatic adjustment. More broadly, we show that with careful seasonal, nodal, and atmospheric corrections, together with knowledge of benchmark provenance, these historic, survey-oriented data can accurately inform of sea level changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide an updated sea level dataset for Dublin for the period 1938 to 2016 at yearly resolution. Using a newly collated sea level record for Dublin Port, as well as two nearby tide gauges at Arklow and Howth Harbour, we perform data quality checks and calibration of the Dublin Port record by adjusting the biased high water level measurements that affect the overall calculation of mean sea level (MSL). To correct these MSL values, we use a novel Bayesian linear regression that includes the Mean Low Water values as a predictor in the model. We validate the re-created MSL dataset and show its consistency with other nearby tide gauge datasets. Using our new corrected dataset, we estimate a rate of 1.08?mm/yr sea level rise at Dublin Port between 1953–2016 (95?% CI from 0.62 to 1.55?mm/yr), and a rate of 6.48?mm/yr between 1997–2016 (95?% CI 4.22 to 8.80?mm/yr). Overall sea level rise is in line with expected trends but large multidecadal varaibility has led to higher rates of rise in recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northwest basins of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans are regions of intense western boundary currents (WBCs): the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio. The variability of these poleward currents and their extensions in the open ocean is of major importance to the climate system. It is largely dominated by in-phase meridional shifts downstream of the points at which they separate from the coast. Tide gauges on the adjacent coastlines have measured the inshore sea level for many decades and provide a unique window on the past of the oceanic circulation. The relationship between coastal sea level and the variability of the western boundary currents has been previously studied in each basin separately, but comparison between the two basins is missing. Here we show for each basin that the inshore sea level upstream of the separation points is in sustained agreement with the meridional shifts of the western boundary current extension over the period studied, i.e. the past 7 (5) decades in the Atlantic (Pacific). Decomposition of the coastal sea level into principal components allows us to discriminate this variability in the upstream sea level from other sources of variability such as the influence of large meanders in the Pacific. Our result extends previous findings limited to the altimetry era and suggests that prediction of inshore sea-level changes could be improved by the inclusion of meridional shifts of the western boundary current extensions as predictors. Long-duration tide gauges, such as Key West, Fernandina Beach or Hosojima, could be used as proxies for the past meridional shifts of the western boundary current extensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Older adults frequently attend the emergency department (ED) and experience high rates of adverse events following ED presentation. This randomised controlled trial evaluated the impact of early assessment and intervention by a dedicated team of health and social care professionals (HSCPs) in the ED on the quality, safety, and clinical effectiveness of care of older adults in the ED.Methods and Findings: This single-site randomised controlled trial included a sample of 353 patients aged ≥65 years (mean age = 79.6, SD = 7.01; 59.2% female) who presented with lower urgency complaints to the ED a university hospital in the Mid-West region of Ireland, during HSCP operational hours. The intervention consisted of early assessment and intervention carried out by a HSCP team comprising a senior medical social worker, senior occupational therapist, and senior physiotherapist. The primary outcome was ED length of stay. Secondary outcomes included rates of hospital admissions from the ED; hospital length of stay for admitted patients; patient satisfaction with index visit; ED revisits, mortality, nursing home admission, and unscheduled hospital admission at 30-day and 6-month follow-up; and patient functional status and quality of life (at index visit and follow-up). Demographic information included the patient's gender, age, marital status, residential status, mode of arrival to the ED, source of referral, index complaint, triage category, falls, and hospitalisation history. Participants in the intervention group (n = 176) experienced a significantly shorter ED stay than the control group (n = 177) (6.4 versus 12.1 median hours, p < 0.001). Other significant differences (intervention versus control) included lower rates of hospital admissions from the ED (19.3% versus 55.9%, p < 0.001), higher levels of satisfaction with the ED visit (p = 0.008), better function at 30-day (p = 0.01) and 6-month follow-up (p = 0.03), better mobility (p = 0.02 at 30 days), and better self-care (p = 0.03 at 30 days; p = 0.009 at 6 months). No differences at follow-up were observed in terms of ED re-presentation or hospital admission. Study limitations include the inability to blind patients or ED staff to allocation due to the nature of the intervention, and a focus on early assessment and intervention in the ED rather than care integration following discharge.Conclusions: Early assessment and intervention by a dedicated ED-based HSCP team reduced ED length of stay and the risk of hospital admissions among older adults, as well as improving patient satisfaction. Our findings support the effectiveness of an interdisciplinary model of care for key ED outcomes.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03739515; registered on 12 November 2018. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of regional changes in mean sea level, and local changes in tides are crucial to inform effective climate adaptation. An essential element of this is the availability of accurate observations of sea level. Sea level data in the Republic of Ireland, prior to the establishment of the National Tide Gauge Network in the mid- 2000s, is very limited but belies a wealth of historical data available in archival form. In this study, we digitize records located in Cork Harbour, Ireland from 1842 and show how short duration (6-8 weeks), high quality data, with a large interval (177 years) to the present, can accurately inform tidal and mean sea level changes. We consider error sources in detail and estimate that for M2 the accuracy of these historical measurements is 1 % and 2 minutes for amplitude and phase respectively, once adjustments for seasonal and nodal effects are made. Our mean sea level estimates are accurate to 2 cm level, once adjustments for atmospheric and seasonal effects are made. Our results show remarkable tidal stability with a 2 % change in the amplitude of the M2 component and 4-minute change in the phase over a period of 177 years; and a mean sea level rise of 40 cm in the Cork Harbour area since 1842, approximately in line with global mean sea level trends plus local glacial isostatic adjustment. More broadly, we show that with careful seasonal, nodal, and atmospheric corrections, together with good knowledge of benchmark provenance, these historic, survey- oriented data can accurately inform of sea level changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northwest basins of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans are regions of intense Western Boundary Currents (WBC), the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio. The variability of these poleward currents and their extension in the open ocean is of major importance to the climate system. It is largely dominated by in- phase meridional shifts downstream of the points where they separate from the coast. Tide gauges on the adjacent coastlines have measured the inshore sea level for many decades and provide a unique window on the past of the oceanic circulation. The relationship between coastal sea level and the variability of the western boundary currents has been previously studied in each basin separately but comparison between the two basins is missing. Here we show for each basin, that the inshore sea level upstream the separation points is in sustained agreement with the meridional shifts of the western boundary current extension over the period studied, i.e. the past seven (five) decades in the Atlantic (Pacific). Decomposition of the coastal sea level into principal components allows us to discriminate this variability in the upstream sea level from other sources of variability such as the influence of large meanders in the Pacific. This result suggests that prediction of inshore sea-level changes could be improved by the inclusion of meridional shifts of the western boundary current extensions as predictors. Conversely, long duration tide gauges, such as Key West, Fernandina Beach or Hosojima could be used as proxies for the past meridional shifts of the western boundary current extensions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength has been observed between 2004 and 2012 by the RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS (RAPID – Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array – Western Boundary Time Series, hereafter RAPID array) with this weakened state of the AMOC persisting until 2017. Climate model and paleo-oceanographic research suggests that the AMOC may have been declining for decades or even centuries before this; however direct observations are sparse prior to 2004, giving only "snapshots" of the overturning circulation. Previous studies have used linear models based on upper-layer temperature anomalies to extend AMOC estimates back in time; however these ignore changes in the deep circulation that are beginning to emerge in the observations of AMOC decline. Here we develop a higher-fidelity empirical model of AMOC variability based on RAPID data and associated physically with changes in thickness of the persistent upper, intermediate, and deep water masses at 26 ∘ N and associated transports. We applied historical hydrographic data to the empirical model to create an AMOC time series extending from 1981 to 2016. Increasing the resolution of the observed AMOC to approximately annual shows multi-annual variability in agreement with RAPID observations and shows that the downturn between 2008 and 2012 was the weakest AMOC since the mid-1980s. However, the time series shows no overall AMOC decline as indicated by other proxies and high-resolution climate models. Our results reinforce that adequately capturing changes to the deep circulation is key to detecting any anthropogenic climate-change-related AMOC decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analysed multiple tide gauges from the east coast of Ireland over the period 1938-2018. We validated the different time series against each other and performed a missing value imputation exercise, which enabled us to produce a homogenised record. The recordings of all tide gauges were found to be in good agreement between 2003-2015, though this was markedly less so from 2016 to the present. We estimate the sea level rise in Dublin port for this period at 10 mm yr-1. The rate over the longer period of 1938-2015 was 1.67 mm yr-1 which is in good agreement with the global average. We found that the rate of sea level rise in the longer term record is cyclic with some extreme upward and downward trends. However, starting around 1980, Dublin has seen significantly higher rates that have been always positive since 1996, and this is mirrored in the surrounding gauges. Furthermore, our analysis indicates an increase in sea level variability since 1980. Both decadal rates and continuous time rates are calculated and provided with uncertainties in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is some evidence that health and social care professional (HSCP) teams contribute to enhanced patient and process outcomes in increasingly crowded emergency departments (EDs), but the views of service users and providers on this model of care need investigation to optimize implementation. Objective: This qualitative study investigated the perspectives of key ED stakeholders about HSCP teams working in the ED. Methods: Using a participatory design, we conducted World Café focus groups and individual interviews in two Irish hospital sites with 65 participants (purposive sampling) including ED patients and carers/relatives, ED doctors and nurses, HSCPs and pre‐hospital staff. Data were thematically analysed using NVivo software. Results: Participants reported that ED‐based HSCP teams could improve quality and integration of care and staff experience (Theme 1) and would be appropriate for older adults with complex needs and non‐urgent complaints (Theme 2). Concerns were raised about operational and relational barriers to implementation (Theme 3), and changes in processes and culture were considered necessary for HSCPs to work successfully in the ED (Theme 4). In contrast to service providers, service users' concerns centred on the importance of positive communication and relations (Theme 5). Conclusions: Our study indicates potential acceptability of HSCP teams working in the ED, especially to care for older adults; however, operational and relational aspects, particularly developing interdisciplinary and integrated care, need addressing to ensure successful implementation. Differences in priorities between service users and providers (relational vs operational) highlighted the usefulness of gathering views from multiple stakeholders to understand ED processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength has been observed between 2004 and 2012 by the RAPID array with this weakened state of the AMOC persisting until 2017. Climate model and paleo-oceanographic research suggests that the AMOC may have been declining for decades or even centuries before this, however direct observations are sparse prior to 2004, giving only snapshots of the overturning circulation. Previous studies have used linear models based on upper layer temperature anomalies to extend AMOC estimates back in time, however these ignore changes in the deep circulation that are beginning to emerge in the observations of AMOC decline. Here we develop a higher fidelity empirical model of AMOC variability based on RAPID data, and associated physically with changes in thickness of the persistent upper, intermediate and deep water masses at 26° N and associated transports. We applied historical hydrographic data to the empirical model to create an AMOC time series extending from 1981 to 2016. Increasing the resolution of the observed AMOC to approximately annual shows multi-annual variability in agreement with RAPID observations, and that the downturn between 2008 and 2012 was the weakest AMOC since the mid-1980s. However, the time series shows no overall AMOC decline as indicated by other proxies and high resolution climate models. Our results reinforce that adequately capturing changes to the deep circulation is key to detecting any anthropogenic climate change-related AMOC decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northward ocean heat transport at 26°N in the Atlantic Ocean has been measured since 2004. The ocean heat transport is large—approximately 1.25 PW, and on interannual time scales it exhibits surprisingly large temporal variability. There has been a long-term reduction in ocean heat transport of 0.17 PW from 1.32 PW before 2009 to 1.15 PW after 2009 (2009–16) on an annual average basis associated with a 2.5-Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) drop in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The reduction in the AMOC has cooled and freshened the upper ocean north of 26°N over an area following the offshore edge of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current from the Bahamas to Iceland. Cooling peaks south of Iceland where surface temperatures are as much as 2°C cooler in 2016 than they were in 2008. Heat uptake by the atmosphere appears to have been affected particularly along the path of the North Atlantic Current. For the reduction in ocean heat transport, changes in ocean heat content account for about one-quarter of the long-term reduction in ocean heat transport while reduced heat uptake by the atmosphere appears to account for the remainder of the change in ocean heat transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, Myanmar has been wracked by repeated disasters that have prompted extraordinary civilian-led relief efforts. This article situates non-state aid and relief as a product of the military junta's outsourcing of responsibility for welfare following the end of the socialist dictatorship in 1988. Drawing on historical accounts of Cyclone Nargis in 2008 and ethnographic fieldwork during Cyclone Komen in 2015, the article argues that the outpouring of aid during natural catastrophes exposes moral conceptualizations of citizenship – often actively encouraged by government officials – in which commercial elites, welfare groups and ordinary people, rather than the state, have moral duties to render aid and relief in the wake of catastrophe. Focusing on the idioms and mechanisms through which non-state actors stretch the boundaries of moral duty from the local to the translocal needy, the paper asks: who gets included, and how, in visions of moral community which symbolically enable non-state relief efforts? Despite the emancipatory promise of moral citizenship, this research shows that non-state relief can also exacerbate social hierarchies and entrench exclusion, as it renders access to emergency aid contingent on inclusion in socially bounded imaginaries of reciprocity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, few precipitation records extend to the 18th century. The England Wales Precipitation (EWP) series is a notable exception with continuous monthly records from 1766. EWP has found widespread use across diverse fields of research including trend detection, evaluation of climate model simulations, as a proxy for mid‐latitude atmospheric circulation, a predictor in long‐term European gridded precipitation data sets, the assessment of drought and extremes, tree‐ring reconstructions and as a benchmark for other regional series. A key finding from EWP has been the multi‐centennial trends towards wetter winters and drier summers. We statistically reconstruct seasonal EWP using independent, quality‐assured temperature, pressure and circulation indices. Using a sleet and snow series for the UK derived by Profs. Gordon Manley and Elizabeth Shaw to examine winter reconstructions, we show that precipitation totals for pre‐1870 winters are likely biased low due to gauge under‐catch of snowfall and a higher incidence of snowfall during this period. When these factors are accounted for in our reconstructions, the observed trend to wetter winters in EWP is no longer evident. For summer, we find that pre‐1820 precipitation totals are too high, likely due to decreasing network density and less certain data at key stations. A significant trend to drier summers is not robustly present in our reconstructions of the EWP series. While our findings are more certain for winter than summer, we highlight (a) that extreme caution should be exercised when using EWP to make inferences about multi‐centennial trends, and; (b) that assessments of 18th and 19th Century winter precipitation should be aware of potential snow biases in early records. Our findings underline the importance of continual re‐appraisal of established long‐term climate data sets as new evidence becomes available. It is also likely that the identified biases in winter EWP have distorted many other long‐term European precipitation series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Successive Myanmar governments have enlisted illiberal means in attempts to end the world's oldest civil wars. Since the 1990s, state-led attempts at peace-building have offered ethnic armed groups limited political autonomy or institutional recognition. Many of the 1990s ceasefire agreements, and the new wave agreed since the transition to partial civilian rule in 2011, have instead sought to erode insurgent legitimacy and control over local populations through encroachment of state-led development initiatives and elite resource extraction rackets into restive regions. Drawing on qualitative fieldwork conducted during periods of ceasefire in Kachin (1994–2011) and Karen States (2012–2019), this article explores how illiberal peace-building has inflamed tensions between 'insurgent social order' and the central state over who and how development is brokered and delivered. While illiberal peace sustains economic and political activity, attempts by the central state to cut insurgent social order out from the mediation and regulation of public goods can provoke intense grassroots conflict within insurgent groups and with the state. Violence looms as a proximate possibility in these contexts despite elite ceasefire, creating what we term 'peri-conflict' peace. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past 20 years, there have been significant and historic breakthroughs in resolving protracted ethnic conflicts in restive regions of several states in South and South-East Asia. After decades of violence, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand have all witnessed periods of reduced conflict and increased stability. Peace-building as practiced in these states departs markedly from the liberal and post-liberal models in which Western actors and liberal norms play a key role. Here, by contrast, peace-building is driven by domestic actors applying illiberal norms and practices. In this introductory article, we trace the shift from liberal to post-liberal to illiberal peace-building, define illiberal peace-building, discuss the case studies presented in this special issue, and finally draw out common themes and policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic justice was the catch-cry of Burma's independence struggle and a defining issue of postcolonial party politics. Yet, despite severe economic disparities and social vulnerability, class and inequality are now largely absent from the ideology and policy platform of Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD). What explains the absence of class inequality from contemporary Burmese politics? Drawing on historical research and extensive fieldwork in provincial Myanmar since 2013, this article focuses on how the junta's post-1988 strategy of state-building shaped the political development of the NLD. It focuses specifically on how the military junta's dissembling of Ne Win's dysfunctional welfare state, control over market reform, and selective suppression of civil society privileged economic elites and religious philanthropic networks within the democracy movement while undermining labour activists and more overtly partisan groups. The resulting weakness of class-based interests within the democracy movement prior to 2011 has enabled commercial elites and market solutions to steer the organisational and ideological direction of Myanmar's most prominent democratic political vehicle, the NLD, since liberalisation. Reflecting these social and institutional constraints, after taking office in 2016 the programmatic agenda of Suu Kyi's NLD has plotted market liberalisation, foreign investment, and individual moral revival as the primary paths to a more "democratic" Myanmar, largely ignoring the dire inequality and economic injustices bequeathed by military dictatorship. If Myanmar's democracy is to endure, the article concludes that structural reforms must be advanced, especially by the NLD, which encourage political representatives to address the precarity experienced by ordinary people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Introducing Health and Social Care Professional (HSCP) teams to the emergency department (ED) has increasingly demonstrated benefits for ED patient and process outcomes. However, there is a dearth of research exploring the views of key ED stakeholders on the role of HSCP teams in care delivery the ED. This qualitative study investigated the perspectives of a wide range of ED stakeholders about HSCPs teams working in the ED. Methods A total of 65 participants including older adults who had recently attended the ED and their carers/relatives, ED doctors and nurses, HSCPs and pre-hospital staff participated in four World Café style focus groups and individual interviews across two Irish hospital sites. Written and audio-recorded data were transcribed and thematically analysed. Results Overall, participants expressed positive views on HSCPs working in teams in the ED, with benefits for patients, staff members and the hospital (Theme 1). Having an ED-based HSCP team was described as promoting effective and timely decision-making and a more integrated approach to patient care, particularly for frail older adults with complex needs (Theme 2). Barriers and enablers for effective implementation were identified at multiple levels (Theme 3) including the ED physical environment, (e.g. space and equipment), operational factors (e.g. working hours), and relations (e.g. patient-staff or staff-staff communication); factors at system level included availability of community resources and financial pressures. Conclusion Our study indicates overall acceptability of HSCPs working in teams in the ED and positive views on their contribution to enhance the quality care of older adults. However, a number of operational and relational factors need to be considered to ensure feasibility and effectiveness. This information is crucial to inform implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Older adults are frequent users of emergency services and demonstrate high rates of adverse outcomes following emergency care. There is some evidence to suggest that Health and Social Care Professions (HSCP) teams working in the emergency department (ED) can enhance the care of older adults but the quality of these studies is mixed. This randomised controlled trial (Trial registration: NCT03739515) explores the impact of early assessment and intervention by an ED-based HSCP team on the quality, safety and cost-effectiveness of care of older adults. Methods Consecutive ED attendees aged ≥65 years were considered eligible for inclusion to the trial and were screened for eligibility based on pre-defined inclusion criteria. Participants were randomised to either early assessment/intervention by interdisciplinary team comprising a senior occupational therapist, senior physiotherapist and senior medical social worker or usual care. Primary outcomes included: ED length of stay and hospital admission rates. Secondary outcomes included: patient satisfaction, function, quality of life, incidence of ED re-visits, hospital admissions, nursing home admission, healthcare utilisation and mortality at 30-day and 6-month follow-up Results Considering the first 140 participants, the intervention group spent significantly shorter time in the ED than the control group (7.5 vs. 15.2 median hours, p<0.001) and experienced lower admission rates (18.6% vs. 64.3%). At 30-day follow up, healthcare utilisation rates were higher in the intervention than control group (77.2% vs. 61.4%, p=0.04). There were no significant differences between the groups regarding satisfaction with their ED visit, function, quality of life of incidence of adverse outcomes at 30 days. Our cost-effectiveness analysis is ongoing. Conclusion Preliminary findings from our trial indicates that HSCPs working in the ED can contribute to improved older patients' care by reducing their duration of stay in the ED and increasing rates of discharge home. Participant recruitment and six month follow-up is continuing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientific and societal interest in the relationship between the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and U.S. East Coast sea level has intensified over the past decade, largely due to (1) projected, and potentially ongoing, enhancement of sea level rise associated with AMOC weakening and (2) the potential for observations of U.S. East Coast sea level to inform reconstructions of North Atlantic circulation and climate. These implications have inspired a wealth of model‐ and observation‐based analyses. Here, we review this research, finding consistent support in numerical models for an antiphase relationship between AMOC strength and dynamic sea level. However, simulations exhibit substantial along‐coast and intermodel differences in the amplitude of AMOC‐associated dynamic sea level variability. Observational analyses focusing on shorter (generally less than decadal) timescales show robust relationships between some components of the North Atlantic large‐scale circulation and coastal sea level variability, but the causal relationships between different observational metrics, AMOC, and sea level are often unclear. We highlight the importance of existing and future research seeking to understand relationships between AMOC and its component currents, the role of ageostrophic processes near the coast, and the interplay of local and remote forcing. Such research will help reconcile the results of different numerical simulations with each other and with observations, inform the physical origins of covariability, and reveal the sensitivity of scaling relationships to forcing, timescale, and model representation. This information will, in turn, provide a more complete characterization of uncertainty in relevant relationships, leading to more robust reconstructions and projections. Plain Language Summary: Sea level along the U.S. East Coast is influenced by changes in the density and currents of the North Atlantic Ocean. Indeed, there are simple theoretical considerations that relate indices of basin‐scale flow to coastal sea level. Such a relationship could be leveraged to predict future sea level changes and coastal flooding given an expected change in climate and ocean circulation. Alternatively, it could be used to reconstruct ocean circulation from sea level measurements. This paper reviews the nature of this relationship and whether, and when, it is evident in climate models and observations. Although the current generation of large‐scale climate and ocean models generally show an antiphase relationship between basin‐scale ocean current strength and coastal sea level, the spatial pattern of sea level change differs from theory and between models. Supported by existing and emerging research, the authors hypothesize that these deviations result from important physical processes occurring on the continental shelf and slope, and the complexities of the 3‐dimensional ocean circulation. A quantitative assessment of the importance of these processes is critical for understanding past and future climate and sea level changes in this heavily populated and vulnerable region. Key Points: The relationship between the AMOC and coastal sea level is important to flood risk projections and ocean circulation reconstructionsThe amplitude and pattern of sea level variability associated with AMOC variations is location, forcing, timescale, and model dependentFuture research should address the complex spatiotemporal structure of AMOC and the role of near‐coast ageostrophic processes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Dedicated Health and Social Care Professional (HSCP) teams have been proposed for emergency departments (EDs) in an effort to improve patient and process outcomes. This systematic review synthesises the totality of evidence relating to the impact of early assessment and intervention by HSCP teams on quality, safety and effectiveness of care in the ED. Methods A systematic literature search was conducted in April 2019 to identify experimental studies examining the effectiveness of ED-based HSCP teams providing services to adults aged ≥ 18 years old and including two or more of the following disciplines: occupational therapist, physiotherapist, medical social worker, clinical pharmacist, or speech and language therapist. Data extraction and quality appraisal of each study were conducted independently by two reviewers. Results Six studies were included in the review (n = 273,886), all describing interdisciplinary Care Coordination Teams (CCTs) caring for adults aged ≥ 65 years old. CCT care was associated with on average 2% reduced rates of hospital admissions (three studies), improved referrals to community services for falls (one study), increased satisfaction (two studies) with the safety of discharge (patients and staff), and with the distribution of workload (staff), improved health-related quality of care (one study). No statistically significant differences between intervention and control groups emerged in terms of rates of ED re-visits, ranging between 0.2% and 3% (two studies); hospital length of stay (one hour difference noted in one study) or mortality rates (0.5% difference in one study). Increased rates of unplanned hospitalisations following the intervention (13.9% difference) were reported in one study. The methodological quality of the studies was mixed. Discussion We found limited and heterogeneous evidence on the impact of HSCP teams in the ED, suggesting a reduction in hospital admissions as well as improved patient and staff satisfaction. More robust investigations including cost-effectiveness evaluations are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do communities prove themselves worthy to receive aid from the state in contemporary Myanmar? This article explores how 'selfreliance' has become a defining feature of the politics of entitlement since the transition to partial civilian rule. Drawing on sixteen months of ethnographic and survey fieldwork conducted in provincial Myanmar since 2015, it shows how parliamentarians and state officials use ostensibly voluntary contributions of labour and resources by residents to local improvement initiatives as a basis to choose which communities deserve state poverty alleviation assistance. Tracing the moral claims to authorities that village and ward leaders and residents often make before, during and after projects of 'self-reliant' public good provision, the article shows how 'doing it yourself' infuses the way citizens, politicians, civil servants and even stateless people enact and understand 'democratic' duties. It demonstrates that authoritarian-era notions of rights as contingent, competitive and zero-sum are being reinforced rather than undermined via local improvement initiatives despite the civilian-led government's significant spending on poverty alleviation and development. The article exposes how increased state funding for public goods and poverty alleviation can entrench pernicious distinctions between 'deserving' and 'undeserving' poor, highlighting how inequality and exclusion endure despite the end of direct military dictatorship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction Health and social care professionals (HSCPs) have increasingly contributed to enhance the care of patients in emergency departments (EDs), particularly for older adults who are frequent ED attendees with significant adverse outcomes. For the first time, the effectiveness of a HSCP team intervention for older adults in the ED has been tested in a large randomised controlled trial (Clinicaltrials. gov, NCT03739515), providing an opportunity to explore the implementation process for this type of intervention. This protocol describes a process evaluation that will to investigate the implementation, delivery and impact of an HSCP team intervention in the ED. Methods and analysis Using the Medical Research Council Framework for process evaluations, we will employ a mixed-methods approach to provide a description of the process of implementation and delivery of the HSCP intervention in the ED, evaluate its fidelity, dose and reach and explore the perceptions of key staff members in relations to the mechanisms and contexts of impact at the levels of individuals, physical environment, operations, communication and the broader hospital and healthcare system. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval for this study was received from the HSE Mid-Western Regional Hospital Research Ethics Committee (Ref: 103/18). All participants will be invited to read and sign a written consent form prior to participation. The results of this review will be disseminated through publication in a peer-review journal and presented at relevant conferences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This error is corrected in the affiliations list of this Correction article and the original article [[1]] has been updated. Following publication of the original article [[1]], the authors identified errors in the affiliation assignment, caused by a typesetting mistake: affiliation 3 (Ageing Research Centre, Health Research Institute, University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland) was incorrectly omitted for the first author, Niamh Cummins. Clinician consensus on "Inappropriate" presentations to the Emergency Department in the Better Data, Better Planning (BDBP) census: a cross-sectional multi-centre study of emergency department utilisation in Ireland. [Extracted from the article]

Continuous 305-year (1711-2016) monthly rainfall series (IoI_1711) is created for the Island of Ireland. The post 1850 series draws on an existing quality assured rainfall network for Ireland, while pre-1850 values come from instrumental and documentary series compiled, but not published by the UK Met Office. The series is evaluated by comparison with independent long-term observations and reconstructions of precipitation, temperature and circulation indices from across the British-Irish Isles. Strong decadal consistency of IoI_1711 with other long-term observations is evident throughout the annual, boreal spring and autumn series. Annually, the most recent decade (2006-2015) is found to be the wettest in over 300 years. The winter series is probably too dry between the 1740s and 1780s, but strong consistency with other long-term observations strengthens confidence from 1790 onwards. The IoI_1711 series has remarkably wet winters during the 1730s, concurrent with a period of strong westerly airflow, glacial advance throughout Scandinavia and near unprecedented warmth in the Central England Temperature record - all consistent with a strongly positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Unusually wet summers occurred in the 1750s, consistent with proxy (treering) reconstructions of summer precipitation in the region. Our analysis shows that inter-decadal variability of precipitation is much larger than previously thought, while relationships with key modes of climate variability are time-variant. The IoI_1711 series reveals statistically significant multicentennial trends in winter (increasing) and summer (decreasing) seasonal precipitation. However, given uncertainties in the early winter record, the former finding should be regarded as tentative. The derived record, one of the longest continuous series in Europe, offers valuable insights for understanding multi-decadal and centennial rainfall variability in Ireland, and provides a firm basis for benchmarking other long-term records and reconstructions of past climate. Correlation of Irish rainfall with other parts of Europe increases the utility of the series for understanding historical climate in further regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The signature was evident across the whole south coast of Ireland (seen here from Castletownbere to Dunmore East) and likely driven by a ridge of high pressure that propagated across the south of Ireland at a similar time. A meteotsunami was observed across the south coast of Ireland on the afternoon of Saturday the 18th June 2022. The abrupt rise and fall in atmospheric pressure over the south of Ireland on the 18 June and the absence of any notable seismic event provides a likely explanation for the driver of the waves seen on the Irish south coast. [Extracted from the article]

A continuous 305-year (1711-2016) monthly rainfall series is created for the Island of Ireland. Two overlapping data sources are employed: i) a previously unpublished UK Meteorological Office note containing annual rainfall anomalies and corresponding proportional monthly totals based on weather diaries and early observational records for the period 1711-1977 and; ii) a long-term, homogenised monthly rainfall series for the island of Ireland for the period 1850-2016. Using estimates of long-term average precipitation from the homogenised series to merge these sources, the new 305-year record is constructed and insights drawn about notable extremes, climate variability and change. The consistency of the resulting series was evaluated by comparison with independent long-term observations and reconstructions of precipitation, temperature and circulation indices from across the British-Irish Isles. Strong decadal consistency is evident throughout the record amongst all series in spring, summer and autumn. The winter series is probably too dry from the 1740s to the 1780s, but strong consistency with other records strengthens confidence from 1790 onwards. The new Island of Ireland series reveals remarkably wet winters during the 1730s, concurrent with a period of strong westerly airflow, glacial advance throughout Scandinavia and near unprecedented warmth in the Central England Temperature record - all consistent with the strong phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The driest winter decade in the series coincides with the Laki eruption of 1783-1784. Unusually wet summers occurred in the 1750s, consistent with proxy (tree-ring) reconstructions of summer precipitation in the region. In the annual series, the most recent decade (2006-2015) is found to be the wettest in over 300 years. The new series reveals statistically significant (0.05 level) multi-centennial trends in winter (increasing) and summer (decreasing) seasonal precipitation. However, given uncertainties in the early winter record, the former should be treated as tentative. Importantly, we show that the years 1940 to present - the period with the most widely available digitised records - is unrepresentative of long-term changes in all seasons. Although there are recognized uncertainties in the early record, the derived series offers valuable insights for understanding multi-decadal and centennial rainfall variability in Ireland, and provides a firm basis for benchmarking other long-term records and future reconstructions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2012 Myanmar has experienced recurrent waves of religiously imbued violence. Violence has been both physical and symbolic. Symbolic violence has included the popularisation of the belief that Muslim men are the primary threat to Buddhist women, and by extension, the body politic of Myanmar. This article draws on ethnographic research and theory on rumours and nationalism to show how colonial era social and legal processes have been drawn on to establish Muslim men as the scapegoats for deeply held social grievances amongst the Buddhist majority. Rumours of the rape and forced religious conversion of Buddhist women make the political personal and justify demands for male and state protection. We argue that in Myanmar the figure of the wealthy Muslim perpetrator has been popularised both as a scapegoat for decades of brutal authoritarianism and as a threat to the contemporary social reproduction of the national Buddhist polity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first continuous estimates of freshwater flux across 26.5°N are calculated using observations from the RAPID-MOCHA-Western Boundary Time Series (WBTS) and Argo floats every 10 days between April 2004 and October 2012. The mean plus or minus the standard deviation of the freshwater flux ( F W) is −1.17 ± 0.20 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1; negative flux is southward), implying a freshwater divergence of −0.37 ± 0.20 Sv between the Bering Strait and 26.5°N. This is in the sense of an input of 0.37 Sv of freshwater into the ocean, consistent with a region where precipitation dominates over evaporation. The sign and the variability of the freshwater divergence are dominated by the overturning component (−0.78 ± 0.21 Sv). The horizontal component of the freshwater divergence is smaller, associated with little variability and positive (0.35 ± 0.04 Sv). A linear relationship, describing 91% of the variance, exists between the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and the freshwater flux (−0.37 − 0.047 Sv of F W per Sverdrups of MOC). The time series of the residual to this relationship shows a small (0.02 Sv in 8.5 yr) but detectable decrease in the freshwater flux (i.e., an increase in the southward freshwater flux) for a given MOC strength. Historical analyses of observations at 24.5°N are consistent with a more negative freshwater divergence from −0.03 to −0.37 Sv since 1974. This change is associated with an increased southward freshwater flux at this latitude due to an increase in the Florida Straits salinity (and therefore the northward salinity flux). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) by the RAPID 26°N array show a pronounced minimum in the northward transport over the winter of 2009/10, substantially lower than any observed since the initial deployment in April 2004. It was followed by a second minimum in the winter of 2010/2011. We demonstrate that ocean models forced with observed surface fluxes reproduce the observed minima. Examining output from five ocean model simulations we identify several historical events which exhibit similar characteristics to those observed in the winter of 2009/10, including instances of individual events, and two clear examples of pairs of events which happened in consecutive years, one in 1969/70 and another in 1978/79. In all cases the absolute minimum, associated with a short, sharp reduction in the Ekman component, occurs in winter. AMOC anomalies are coherent between the Equator and 50°N and in some cases propagation attributable to the poleward movement of the anomaly in the wind field is observed. We also observe a low frequency (decadal) mode of variability in the anomalies, associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Where pairs of events have occurred in consecutive years we find that atmospheric conditions during the first winter correspond to a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. Atmospheric conditions during the second winter are indicative of a more regional negative NAO phase, and we suggest that this persistence is linked to re-emergence of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic for the events of 1969/70 and 2009/10. The events of 1978/79 do not exhibit re-emergence, indicating that the atmospheric memory for this pair of events originates elsewhere. Observation of AO patterns associated with cold winters over northwest Europe may be indicative for the occurrence of a second extreme winter over northwest Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New data are presented from 24°°S in the South Atlantic in an investigation of the decadal variability of the intermediate and thermocline water masses at this latitude. Variation of salinity on neutral density surfaces is investigated with three transatlantic, full-depth hydrographic sections from 1958, 1983, and 2009. The thermocline is seen to freshen by 0.05 between 1983 and 2009. The freshening is coherent, basinwide, and of a larger magnitude than any errors associated with the datasets. This freshening reverses a basinwide, coherent increase in salinity of 0.03 in the thermocline between 1958 and 1983. Changes in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) are investigated to support the salinity changes. In the thermocline of the eastern basin, a correlated relationship exists between local AOU and salinity anomalies, which is consistent with the influence of Indian Ocean Water. This correlated relationship is utilized to estimate the magnitude of Indian Ocean influence on the salinity changes in the thermocline. Indian Ocean influence explains half of the salinity changes in the eastern thermocline from 1958 to 1983 but less of the salinity change in the eastern thermocline from 1983 to 2009. Antarctic Intermediate Water properties significantly warm from 1958 through 1983 to 2009. A significant salinification and increase in AOU is evident from 1958 to 1983. Changes in the salinity of AAIW are shown to be linked with Indian Ocean influence rather than changes in the hydrological cycle. Upper Circumpolar Deep Water is seen to be progressively more saline from 1958 through 1983 to 2009. Increased Agulhas leakage and the intensification of the hydrological cycle are conflicting influences on the salinity of thermocline and intermediate waters in the South Atlantic as the former acts to increase the salinity of these water masses and the latter acts to decrease the salinity of these water masses. The results presented here offer an interpretation of the salinity changes, which considers both of these conflicting influences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]