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Harvest strategies are utilised in the management of fishery resources globally. Critical to their success is harvest strategy evaluation, whereby future performance is assessed through projection modelling. Using the observed relationship between a puerulus settlement index and model‐estimated recruitment, we evaluated a southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) harvest strategy in South Australia. Short‐to‐medium puerulus settlement recruitment forecasting was incorporated into future projections of catch, catch per unit effort, and percent unexploited egg production (%UEP) during 2019–2022. Observed values of indicators that closely aligned with projected outputs indicated that puerulus forecasting underpinned reliable evaluation of future fishery performance. A key objective of the harvest strategy was to increase egg production in the fishery, with a 20% unexploited egg production targeted by 2036. The target was reached under the proposed strategy, but was sensitive to recruitment, thereby highlighting the need to consider climate change impacts in forecasting scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The size at which sexual maturity is reached is a key population parameter used to guide the setting of minimum legal size limits in fisheries. Understanding spatial and temporal variations in size at maturity is fundamental to management because the relationship between size at maturity and minimum legal size limits affects the fraction of the mature population biomass that is harvested, and resulting egg production, larval settlement and recruitment. This study measured the size at maturity of female Southern Rock Lobster (Jasus edwardsii) across South Australia between 1991 and 2015 in relation to known oceanographic characteristics, surface and subsurface temperature data, and relative changes in lobster abundance. There was pronounced north to south spatial variation in estimates of size at maturity. Larger average size at maturity was recorded in warmer north-western areas of the fishery relative to the cooler waters of the south-east. Estimates of size at maturity also differed over 25 years across the fishery. However, the nature of temporal responses varied spatially, and were more consistent with variations in surface and subsurface water temperature at local-scales than changes in lobster density. In the well-mixed waters of the north-western, western and south-eastern parts of the fishery, relatively high rates of increase in sea-surface temperature and size at maturity were recorded since 1991, indicating that size at maturity may be responding to ocean warming associated with global climate change. In more central parts of the fishery, contrasting temporal signals in sea-surface temperature (positive) and bottom temperature (negative) indicated increases in upwelling strength over the study period, and formation of a bottom cold pool below a warm surface layer, with corresponding decreases in size at maturity recorded. The spatio-temporal changes in size at maturity measured in this study highlight the need for oceanographic information to be integrated into future stock assessment models to enhance harvest strategy development, allow timely adaptive management decisions and increase the resilience of fisheries to the impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shelf waters of southern Australia support the world's only northern boundary current ecosystem. Although there are some indications of intense nitrate enrichment in the eastern Great Australian Bight (GAB) arising from upwelling of the Flinders Current, the biological consequences of these processes are poorly understood. We show that productivity in the eastern GAB is low during winter, but that coastal upwelling at several locations during the austral summer–autumn results in localized increases in surface chlorophyll a concentrations and downstream enhancement of zooplankton biomass. Sardine ( Sardinops sagax) and anchovy ( Engraulis australis) eggs and larvae are abundant and widely distributed in shelf waters of the eastern and central GAB during summer–autumn, with high densities of sardine eggs and larvae occurring in areas with high zooplankton biomass. Egg densities and distributions support previous evidence suggesting that the spawning biomass of sardine in the waters off South Australia is an order of magnitude higher than elsewhere in southern Australia. Sardine comprised >50% of the identified prey species of juvenile southern bluefin tuna (SBT, Thunnus maccoyii) collected during this study. Other studies have shown that the lipid content of sardine from the GAB is relatively high during summer and autumn. We suggest that juvenile SBT migrate into the eastern and central GAB during each summer–autumn to access the high densities of lipid-rich sardines that are available in the region during the upwelling period. Levels of primary, secondary and fish production in the eastern GAB during summer–autumn are higher than those recorded in other parts of Australia, and within the lower portion of ranges observed during upwelling events in the productive eastern boundary current systems off California, Peru and southern Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]