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There is compelling evidence that atmospheric moisture may either increase or decrease midlatitude eddy kinetic energy (EKE). We reconcile these findings by using a hierarchy of idealized atmospheric models to demonstrate that moisture energizes individual eddies given fixed large-scale background winds and temperatures but makes those background conditions less favorable for eddy growth. For climates similar to the present day, the latter effect wins out, and moisture weakens midlatitude eddy activity. The model hierarchy includes a moist two-layer quasigeostrophic (QG) model and an idealized moist general circulation model (GCM). In the QG model, EKE increases when moisture is added to simulations with fixed baroclinicity, closely following a previously derived scaling. But in both models, moisture decreases EKE when environmental conditions are allowed to vary. We explain these results by examining the models' mean available potential energy (MAPE) and by calculating terms in the models' Lorenz energy cycles. In the QG model, the EKE decreases because precipitation preferentially forms on the poleward side of the jet, releasing latent heat where the model is relatively cold and decreasing the MAPE, hence the EKE. In the moist GCM, the MAPE primarily decreases because the midlatitude stability increases as the model is moistened, with reduced meridional temperature gradients playing a secondary role. Together, these results clarify moisture's role in driving the midlatitude circulation and also highlight several drawbacks of QG models for studying moist processes in midlatitudes. Significance Statement: Dry models of the atmosphere have played a central role in the study of large-scale atmospheric dynamics. But we know that moisture adds much complexity, associated with phase changes, its effect on atmospheric stability, and the release of latent heat during condensation. Here, we take an important step toward incorporating moisture into our understanding of midlatitude dynamics by reconciling two diverging lines of literature, which suggest that atmospheric moisture can either increase or decrease midlatitude eddy kinetic energy. We explain these opposing results by showing that moisture not only makes individual eddies more energetic but also makes the environment in which eddies form less favorable for eddy growth. For climates similar to the present day, the latter effect wins out such that moisture decreases atmospheric eddy kinetic energy. We demonstrate this point using several different idealized atmospheric models, which allow us to gradually add complexity and to smoothly vary between moist and dry climates. These results add fundamental understanding to how moisture affects midlatitude climates, including how its effects change in warmer and moisture climates, while also highlighting some drawbacks of the idealized atmospheric models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) supplies vital rainfall for over one billion people. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) markedly affects the EASM, but its impacts are more robust following El Niño than La Niña. Here, we show that this asymmetry arises from the asymmetry in ENSO evolution: though most El Niño events last for one year, La Niña events often persist for 2-3 years. In the summers between consecutive La Niña events, the concurrent La Niña opposes the delayed effect of the preceding winter La Niña on the EASM, causing a reduction in the magnitude and coherence of climate anomalies. Results from a large ensemble climate model experiment corroborate and strengthen the observational analysis with an order of magnitude increase in sample size. The apparent asymmetry in the impacts of the ENSO on the EASM can be reduced by considering the concurrent ENSO, in addition to the ENSO state in the preceding winter. This has important implications for seasonal climate forecasts.El Niño in the preceding winter tends to exert a stronger influence on the East Asian summer monsoon than its counterpart, La Niña. The authors discuss the reasons behind this asymmetry and highlight the important role of multi-year La Niña events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mechanisms by which clouds impact the variability of the mid‐latitude atmosphere are poorly understood. We use an idealized, dry atmospheric model to investigate the relationship between Atmospheric Cloud Radiative Effects (ACRE) and annular mode persistence. We force the model with time‐varying diabatic heating that mimics the observed ACRE response to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Realistic ACRE forcing reduces annular mode persistence by 5 days (−16%), which we attribute to a weakening of low‐frequency eddy forcing via modified low‐level temperature gradients, though this effect is partly compensated by reduced frictional damping due to zonal wind anomalies becoming more top‐heavy. The persistence changes are nonlinear with respect to the amplitude of ACRE forcing, reflecting nonlinearities in the response of the eddy forcing. These results highlight the ACRE's impact on low‐frequency eddy forcing as the dominant cause of changes in annular mode persistence. Plain Language Summary: In this study, we conduct novel modeling experiments aimed at understanding how clouds affect the unforced variability of jet streams—concentrated bands of eastward wind in the mid‐latitude atmosphere. We focus on direct heating and cooling of the atmosphere by clouds, called Atmospheric Cloud Radiative Effects (ACRE), and how these impact the annular mode—the most significant type of jet stream variability, which consists of north‐south shifts of the jet's position. Using a simplified atmospheric model, we investigate how the persistence and structure of the annular mode are impacted by heatings and coolings that mimic the observed ACRE response to the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM). We find that the ACRE reduces the persistence of the annular mode (i.e., deviations of the jet stream from its mean position tend to persist for less time), which we attribute to a weakening of the feedback mechanism by which atmospheric waves strengthen the jet where it is already strongest. We identify some compensating effects, but, overall, our results highlight that ACRE impacts jet streams via low‐altitude temperature gradients and atmospheric wave generation. Key Points: The response of Atmospheric Cloud Radiative Effects (ACRE) to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) reduces SAM's persistenceThe decrease in SAM's persistence is attributed to weakened low‐frequency eddy forcing via disruption of low‐level temperature gradientsThe change in persistence is nonlinear with respect to the amplitude of ACRE forcing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mock‐Walker simulations have the potential to play a key role in a tropical model hierarchy, bridging small‐scale Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium simulations and global models of tropical circulations. We demonstrate that mock‐Walker simulations transition from single‐ to double‐celled overturning circulations as mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is increased, with the transition occurring near 300 K. The transition is robust to domain geometry and microphysical scheme, and is favored by larger SST gradients. The transition is associated with the development of a mid‐tropospheric minimum in the radiative‐subsidence velocity over the cold pool of the simulations, and is likely reinforced by zonal moisture and temperature fluxes between the warm and cold pools. Several methods of suppressing the transition are investigated, but all set‐ups produce a double‐cell at sufficiently warm mean SSTs. The striking dynamical transition of mock‐Walker simulations dominates their response to warming, though its relevance for observed tropical climate change is unclear. Plain Language Summary: Untangling the coupled interactions between clouds and large‐scale atmospheric flows is one of the "Grand Challenges" of climate science. Large‐scale flows are the main control on the spatial distribution of cloud‐types in the tropics, but clouds in turn play a key role in setting the strengths and spatial structures of these flows. Here, we investigate "mock‐Walker" simulations as a potential idealized modeling set‐up for investigating the two‐way interactions between clouds and tropical circulations. Mock‐Walker simulations include the zonal sea‐surface temperature (SST) gradient needed to generate realistic tropical circulations, while using grid resolutions sufficient to partially resolve clouds. However, in this study we document a robust transition in the large‐scale flow in mock‐Walker simulations from a single overturning cell to two vertically‐stacked overturning cells (a double‐celled flow) as the mean SST is increased. This transition occurs for a mean SST close to the observed SSTs in the equatorial Pacific, and dominates the response of mock‐Walker simulations to warming. The transition is robust to domain geometry, microphysical scheme and to fixing the radiation. While we are unable to provide a complete explanation of the transition, it does seem to be associated with extreme dryness over the cold pools of the simulations. Key Points: Mock‐Walker simulations transition from single‐to a double‐celled circulation as the mean SST is increasedThis is associated with a mid‐tropospheric minimum in the cold pool radiative‐subsidence velocityElevated stability maxima cause transitions in mock‐Walker simulations with fixed radiative cooling and artificial moisture sources [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is associated with a zonal band of strong precipitation that migrates meridionally over the seasonal cycle. Tropical precipitation also migrates zonally, such as from the South Asian monsoon in Northern Hemisphere summer (JJA) to the precipitation maximum of the west Pacific in Northern Hemisphere winter (DJF). To explore this zonal movement in the Indo-Pacific sector, we analyze the seasonal cycle of tropical precipitation using a 2D energetic framework and study idealized atmosphere–ocean simulations with and without ocean dynamics. In the observed seasonal cycle, an atmospheric energy and precipitation anomaly forms over South Asia in northern spring and summer due to heating over land. It is then advected eastward into the west Pacific in northern autumn and remains there due to interactions with the Pacific cold tongue and equatorial easterlies. We interpret this phenomenon as a "monsoonal mode," a zonally propagating moist energy anomaly of continental and seasonal scale. To understand the behavior of the monsoonal mode, we develop and explore an analytical model in which the monsoonal mode is advected by low-level winds, is sustained by interaction with the ocean, and decays due to the free tropospheric mixing of energy. Significance Statement: Regional concentrations of tropical precipitation, such as the South Asian monsoon, provide water to billions of people. These features have strong seasonal cycles that have typically been framed in terms of meridional shifts of precipitation following the sun's movement. Here, we study zonal shifts of tropical precipitation over the seasonal cycle in observations and idealized simulations. We find that land–ocean contrasts trigger a monsoon with concentrated precipitation over Asia in northern summer and near-surface eastward winds carry this precipitation into the west Pacific during northern autumn in what we call a "monsoonal mode." This concentrated precipitation remains over the west Pacific during northern winter, as further migration is impeded by the cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and easterly winds of the east Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern Mexico is home to more than 32 million people and is of significant agricultural and economic importance for the country. The region includes three distinct hydroclimatic regions, all of which regularly experience severe dryness and flooding and are highly susceptible to future changes in precipitation. To date, little work has been done to characterize future trends in either mean or extreme precipitation over northern Mexico. To fill this gap, we investigate projected precipitation trends over the region in the NA-CORDEX ensemble of dynamically downscaled simulations. We first verify that these simulations accurately reproduce observed precipitation over northern Mexico, as derived from the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) product, demonstrating that the NA-CORDEX ensemble is appropriate for studying precipitation trends over the region. By the end of the century, simulations forced with a high-emissions scenario project that both mean and extreme precipitation will decrease to the west and increase to the east of the Sierra Madre highlands, decreasing the zonal gradient in precipitation. We also find that the North American monsoon, which is responsible for a substantial fraction of the precipitation over the region, is likely to start later and last approximately three weeks longer. The frequency of extreme precipitation events is expected to double throughout the region, exacerbating the flood risk for vulnerable communities in northern Mexico. Collectively, these results suggest that the extreme precipitation-related dangers that the region faces, such as flooding, will increase significantly by the end of the century, with implications for the agricultural sector, economy, and infrastructure. Significance Statement: Northern Mexico regularly experiences severe flooding and its important agricultural sector can be heavily impacted by variations in precipitation. Using high-resolution climate model simulations that have been tested against observations, we find that these hydroclimate extremes are likely to be exacerbated in a warming climate; the dry (wet) season is projected to receive significantly less (more) precipitation (approximately ±10% by the end of the century). Simulations suggest that some of the changes in precipitation over the region can be related to the North American monsoon, with the monsoon starting later in the year and lasting several weeks longer. Our results also suggest that the frequency of extreme precipitation will increase, although this increase is smaller than that projected for other regions, with the strongest storms becoming 20% more frequent per degree of warming. These results suggest that this region may experience significant changes to its hydroclimate through the end of the century that will require significant resilience planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Asian monsoon region can persist through the post-ENSO summer, after the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific have dissipated. The long persistence of coherent post-ENSO anomalies is caused by a positive feedback due to interbasin ocean–atmospheric coupling, known as the Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect, although the feedback mechanism itself does not necessarily rely on the antecedence of ENSO events, suggesting the potential for substantial internal variability independent of ENSO. To investigate the respective role of ENSO forcing and non-ENSO internal variability, we conduct ensemble "forecast" experiments with a full-physics, globally coupled atmosphere–ocean model initialized from a multidecadal tropical Pacific pacemaker simulation. The leading mode of internal variability as represented by the forecast-ensemble spread resembles the post-ENSO IPOC, despite the absence of antecedent ENSO forcing by design. The persistent atmospheric and oceanic anomalies in the leading mode highlight the positive feedback mechanism in the internal variability. The large sample size afforded by the ensemble spread allows us to identify robust non-ENSO precursors of summer IPOC variability, including a cool SST patch over the tropical northwestern Pacific, a warming patch in the tropical North Atlantic, and downwelling oceanic Rossby waves in the tropical Indian Ocean south of the equator. The pathways by which the precursors develop into the summer IPOC mode and the implications for improved predictability are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate sensitivity peaks around 310 K in a wide variety of climate models, ranging from idealized single column models to fully comprehensive climate models. Here, we increase CO2 using a clear‐sky three‐dimensional atmospheric model with a radiation scheme which maintains accuracy for high CO2 and temperature levels. In contrast, the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of our model plateaus around 310 K. We show that this is due to the moistening of the subtropical regions caused by a slowdown in atmospheric circulation, which increases the ECS at very high CO2 values. When relative humidity is fixed, the ECS peak is consistent with single column model results. This work does not rule out that clouds or other complex processes impact the ECS in comprehensive climate models. Though the changes in CO2 here are extreme, this study underlines the importance of changes in atmospheric circulation and relative humidity in quantitative assessments of climate sensitivity. Plain Language Summary: From simple single column models to fully comprehensive three‐dimensional climate models, when we increase CO2 to very high levels, we find a peak in the temperature increase per doubling of CO2 at around 310 K. While we understand why this happens in simple models, we lack an understanding for fully comprehensive climate models. Our study uses an intermediate complexity three‐dimensional climate model to bridge this gap. We find that the peak in climate sensitivity is not as pronounced as in other studies. We show that this is due to large changes in the atmospheric circulation which causes a moistening of the subtropics and an increase in the climate sensitivity. Key Points: Climate sensitivity peaks around 310 K in a variety of climate models, ranging from idealized single column models to comprehensive modelsWe use a clear‐sky GCM to bridge the gap between comprehensive models and single column models for which we have a theory for this peakAt high CO2, changes in atmospheric circulation cause a moistening of the subtropical regions and increase the climate sensitivity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce Version 2 of our widely used 1-km Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps for historical and future climate conditions. The historical maps (encompassing 1901–1930, 1931–1960, 1961–1990, and 1991–2020) are based on high-resolution, observation-based climatologies, while the future maps (encompassing 2041–2070 and 2071–2099) are based on downscaled and bias-corrected climate projections for seven shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). We evaluated 67 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and kept a subset of 42 with the most plausible CO2-induced warming rates. We estimate that from 1901–1930 to 1991–2020, approximately 5% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) transitioned to a different major Köppen-Geiger class. Furthermore, we project that from 1991–2020 to 2071–2099, 5% of the land surface will transition to a different major class under the low-emissions SSP1-2.6 scenario, 8% under the middle-of-the-road SSP2-4.5 scenario, and 13% under the high-emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario. The Köppen-Geiger maps, along with associated confidence estimates, underlying monthly air temperature and precipitation data, and sensitivity metrics for the CMIP6 models, can be accessed at www.gloh2o.org/koppen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models and observations robustly agree that Earth's clear-sky longwave feedback has a value of about −2 W m−2 K−1, suggesting that this feedback can be estimated from first principles. In this study, we derive an analytic model for Earth's clear-sky longwave feedback. Our approach uses a novel spectral decomposition that splits the feedback into four components: a surface Planck feedback and three atmospheric feedbacks from CO2, H2O, and the H2O continuum. We obtain analytic expressions for each of these terms, and the model can also be framed in terms of Simpson's law and deviations therefrom. We validate the model by comparing it against line-by-line radiative transfer calculations across a wide range of climates. Additionally, the model qualitatively matches the spatial feedback maps of a comprehensive climate model. For present-day Earth, our analysis shows that the clear-sky longwave feedback is dominated by the surface in the global mean and in the dry subtropics; meanwhile, atmospheric feedbacks from CO2 and H2O become important in the inner tropics. Together, these results show that a spectral view of Earth's clear-sky longwave feedback elucidates not only its global-mean magnitude, but also its spatial pattern and its state dependence across past and future climates. Significance Statement: The climate feedback determines how much our planet warms due to changes in radiative forcing. For more than 50 years scientists have been predicting this feedback using complex numerical models. Except for cloud effects the numerical models largely agree, lending confidence to global warming predictions, but nobody has yet derived the feedback from simpler considerations. We show that Earth's clear-sky longwave feedback can be estimated using only pen and paper. Our results confirm that numerical climate models get the right number for the right reasons, and allow us to explain regional and state variations of Earth's climate feedback. These variations are difficult to understand solely from numerical models but are crucial for past and future climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise and climate change becomes more destructive, geoengineering has become a subject of serious consideration. By reflecting a fraction of incoming sunlight, solar geoengineering could cool the planet quickly, but with uncertain effects on regional climatology, particularly hydrological patterns. Here, we review recent work on projected hydrologic outcomes of solar geoengineering, in the context of a robust literature on hydrological responses to climate change. While most approaches to solar geoengineering are expected to weaken the global hydrologic cycle, regional effects will vary based on implementation method and strategy. The literature on the hydrologic outcomes and impacts of geoengineering demonstrates that its implications for human welfare will depend on assumptions about underlying social conditions and objectives of intervention as well as the social lens through which projected effects are interpreted. We conclude with suggestions to reduce decision-relevant uncertainties in this novel field of Earth science inquiry. The expected hydrological effects of reducing insolation are among the most uncertain and consequential impacts of solar geoengineering (SG). Theoretical frameworks from broader climate science can help explain SG's effects on global precipitation, relative humidity, and other aspects of hydroclimate. The state of the knowledge on hydrological impacts of SG is unevenly concentrated among regions. Projected hydrological impacts from SG are scenario dependent and difficult to characterize as either harmful or beneficial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: As atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, temperature and humidity will increase further, causing potentially dire increases in human heat stress. On physiological and biophysical grounds, exposure to higher levels of humidity should worsen heat stress by decreasing sweat evaporation. However, population-scale epidemiological studies of heat exposure and response often do not detect associations between high levels of humidity and heat-related mortality or morbidity. These divergent, disciplinary views regarding the role of humidity in heatrelated health risks limit confidence in selecting which interventions are effective in reducing health impacts and in projecting future heat-related health risks. OBJECTIVES: Via our multidisciplinary perspective we seek to a) reconcile the competing realities concerning the role of humidity in heat-related health impacts and b) help ensure robust projections of heat-related health risks with climate change. These objectives are critical pathways to identify and communicate effective approaches to cope with present and future heat challenges. DISCUSSION: We hypothesize six key reasons epidemiological studies have found little impact of humidity on heat–health outcomes: a) At high temperatures, there may be limited influence of humidity on the health conditions that cause most heat-related deaths (i.e., cardiovascular collapse); b) epidemiological data sets have limited spatial extent, a bias toward extratropical (i.e., cooler and less humid), high-income nations, and tend to exist in places where temporal variations in temperature and humidity are positively correlated; c) analyses focus on older, vulnerable populations with sweating, and thus evaporative, impairments that may be further aggravated by dehydration; d) extremely high levels of temperature and humidity (seldom seen in the historical record) are necessary for humidity to substantially impact heat strain of sedentary individuals; e) relationships between temperature and humidity are improperly considered when interpreting epidemiological model results; and f) sub-daily meteorological phenomena, such as rain, occur at high temperatures and humidity, and may bias epidemiological studies based on daily data. Future research must robustly test these hypotheses to advance methods for more accurate incorporation of humidity in estimating heat-related health outcomes under present and projected future climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the higher mean Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) in CMIP6 has been attributed to more positive cloud feedbacks, it is unclear what causes the greater range of ECS values across CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5. Here, we investigate the relationship between radiative forcing and cloud feedbacks across the two model generations to explain the very high ECS values in some CMIP6 models. The relationship is sensitive to the definition of the forcing, particularly in CMIP6, but fixed‐sea surface temperature simulations suggest the shortwave cloud feedback (λSW,CL) is anticorrelated with the forcing in CMIP5 and either uncorrelated or weakly positively correlated with the forcing in CMIP6. These relationships reflect the cloud adjustment to the forcing, which is anticorrelated with λSW,CL in CMIP5 and positively correlated in CMIP6. Although we are unable to identify a systematic change across the model generations, we do show that the difference is not due to land effects, and that cloud adjustments are generally driven by low and, especially, midlevel clouds. Furthermore, models derived from a small number modeling centers seem to be responsible for much of the difference between the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles. Our analysis is severely limited by the available simulations, highlighting the need for targeted experiments to better understand cloud adjustments and to probe the sources of intermodel differences. Plain Language Summary: This study investigates what caused several of the latest generation of climate models to have very high Equilibrium Climate Sensitivities (ECSs) of over 5°C. We show that the explanation depends on how the radiative forcing from CO2 (F) is calculated. Using the best available estimates of F, we find that in previous model generations F is anticorrelated with models' climate feedback, damping the range of ECS, but in the newest generation of models F is positively correlated with the feedback, increasing the range of ECS. These relationships are driven by correlations between F and the cloud adjustments to the forcing (changes in clouds that are independent of surface temperature), which also change sign between the model generations. Few models provided the necessary data to calculate cloud adjustments, making it difficult to identify systematic differences between the generations, but we are able to trace the difference to models' atmospheric physics, rather than changes in land properties. Most of the intergenerational differences also seem to come from models originally derived from a small number of modeling centers, so that better understanding the cloud adjustments in a few models may explain the greater spread of ECS in the latest generation of climate models. Key Points: The relationship between feedback and forcing is sensitive to the definition of the forcing, especially in CMIP6Cloud adjustments are anticorrelated with SW cloud feedbacks in CMIP5 and positively correlated in CMIP6Changes in cloud adjustments due to land effects are not responsible for these trends [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The factors controlling the present-day pattern of temperature variance are poorly understood. In particular, it is unclear why the variance of wintertime near-surface temperatures on daily and synoptic time scales is roughly twice as high over North America as over Eurasia. In this study, continental geometry's role in shaping regional wintertime temperature variance is investigated using idealized climate model simulations run with midlatitude continents of different shapes. An isolated, rectangular midlatitude continent suggests that in the absence of other geographic features, the highest temperature variance will be located in the northwest of the continent, roughly collocated with the region of largest meridional temperature gradients, and just north of the maximum near-surface wind speeds. Simulations with other geometries, mimicking key features of North America and Eurasia, investigate the impacts of continental length and width, sloping coastlines, and inland bodies of water on regional temperature variance. The largest effect comes from tapering the northwest corner of the continent, similar to Eurasia, which substantially reduces the maximum temperature variance. Narrower continents have smaller temperature variance in isolation, implying that the high variances over North America must be due to the nonlocal influence of stationary waves. Support for this hypothesis is provided by simulations with two midlatitude continents, which show how continental geometry and stationary waves can combine to shape regional temperature variance. Significance Statement: Wintertime temperature variance over North America is roughly twice as high as over Eurasia, but the reasons for this are unknown. Here we use idealized climate model simulations to investigate how continental geometry shapes regional temperature variance. We find that the smaller variance over Eurasia is largely due to the tapering of its northwest coast, which weakens temperature gradients in the continental interior. Our simulations also suggest that in isolation a narrow continent, like North America, should have weak temperature variance, implying that stationary waves are responsible for the high variance over North America. Understanding the controls on regional temperature variance is important for interpreting present-day winter climates and how these will change in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although Earth's troposphere does not superrotate in the annual mean, for most of the year—from October to May—the winds of the tropical upper troposphere are westerly. We investigate this seasonal superrotation using reanalysis data and a single-layer model for the winds of the tropical upper troposphere. We characterize the temporal and spatial structures of the tropospheric superrotation, and quantify the relationships between the superrotation and the leading modes of tropical interannual variability. We also find that the strength of the superrotation has remained roughly constant over the past few decades, despite the winds of the tropical upper troposphere decelerating (becoming more easterly) in other months. We analyze the monthly zonal-mean zonal momentum budget and use numerical simulations with an axisymmetric, single-layer model of the tropical upper troposphere to study the underlying dynamics of the seasonal superrotation. Momentum flux convergence by stationary eddies accelerates the superrotation, while cross-equatorial easterly momentum transport associated with the Hadley circulation decelerates the superrotation. The seasonal modulations of these two competing factors shape the superrotation. The single-layer model is able to qualitatively reproduce the seasonal progression of the winds in the tropical upper troposphere, and highlights the northward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone in the annual mean as a key factor responsible for the annual cycle of the tropical winds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How clouds respond to anthropogenic sulfate aerosols is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial era. This uncertainty limits our ability to predict equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)--the equilibrium global warming following a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Here, we use satellite observations to quantify relationships between sulfate aerosols and low-level clouds while carefully controlling for meteorology. We then combine the relationships with estimates of the change in sulfate concentration since about 1850 to constrain the associated radiative forcing. We estimate that the cloud-mediated radiative forcing from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols is -1.11 ± 0.43 W m-2 over the global ocean (95% confidence). This constraint implies that ECS is likely between 2.9 and 4.5 K (66% confidence). Our results indicate that aerosol forcing is less uncertain and ECS is probably larger than the ranges proposed by recent climate assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northeastern United States (NEUS) is a densely populated region with a number of major cities along the climatological storm track. Despite its economic and social importance, as well as the area's vulnerability to flooding, there is significant uncertainty around future trends in extreme precipitation over the region. Here, we undertake a regional study of the projected changes in extreme precipitation over the NEUS through the end of the twenty-first century using an ensemble of high-resolution, dynamically downscaled simulations from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) project. We find that extreme precipitation increases throughout the region, with the largest changes in coastal regions and smaller changes inland. These increases are seen throughout the year, although the smallest changes in extreme precipitation are seen in the summer, in contrast to earlier studies. The frequency of heavy precipitation also increases such that there are relatively fewer days with moderate precipitation and relatively more days with either no or strong precipitation. Averaged over the region, extreme precipitation increases by +3%–5% °C−1 of local warming, with the largest fractional increases in southern and inland regions and occurring during the winter and spring seasons. This is lower than the +7% °C−1 rate expected from thermodynamic considerations alone and suggests that dynamical changes damp the increases in extreme precipitation. These changes are qualitatively robust across ensemble members, although there is notable intermodel spread associated with models' climate sensitivity and with changes in mean precipitation. Together, the NA-CORDEX simulations suggest that this densely populated region may require significant adaptation strategies to cope with the increase in extreme precipitation expected at the end of the next century. Significance Statement: Observations show that the northeastern United States has already experienced increases in extreme precipitation, and prior modeling studies suggest that this trend is expected to continue through the end of the century. Using high-resolution climate model simulations, we find that coastal regions will experience large increases in extreme precipitation (+6.0–7.5 mm day−1), although there is significant intermodel spread in the trends' spatial distribution and in their seasonality. Regionally averaged, extreme precipitation will increase at a rate of ∼2% decade−1. Our results also suggest that the frequency of extreme precipitation will increase, with the strongest storms doubling in frequency per degree of warming. These results, taken with earlier studies, provide guidance to aid in resiliency preparation and planning by regional stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cloud‐circulation interactions have a potentially large but uncertain influence on regional climate. Here we use satellite observations to investigate relationships between atmospheric cloud radiative heating and hemispheric‐scale shifts in the Southern Hemisphere extratropical jet stream, as represented by the Southern Annular Mode. In contrast to a previous study, we find that poleward jet shifts cause bottom‐heavy heating anomalies. The heating anomalies arise from two distinct mechanisms: First, poleward jet shifts promote anomalous large‐scale subsidence equatorward of the mean jet latitude. This increases the fraction of low clouds that are exposed to space, thereby enhancing lower‐tropospheric radiative cooling. Second, deep and multi‐layer clouds in extratropical cyclones shift poleward with the jet, causing radiative heating anomalies throughout the troposphere. The bottom‐heavy structure of the heating anomalies occurs because low clouds strongly emit radiation. These results establish new observational benchmarks for understanding extratropical cloud‐circulation interactions. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric circulation controls cloud formation, and clouds change atmospheric radiative and latent heating, thereby affecting the circulations in which they form. These two‐way interactions affect regional climate by a potentially large but uncertain amount. Here we use satellite data to investigate relationships between cloud radiative heating and poleward shifts of the extratropical jet stream in the Southern Hemisphere. We show that poleward jet shifts cause bottom‐heavy radiative heating anomalies throughout the extratropics. These heating anomalies result from an increase in the low‐cloud fraction equatorward of the mean jet‐stream latitude and a poleward shift of clouds in extratropical cyclones. The bottom‐heavy heating structure occurs because low‐level clouds strongly emit radiation. These observed relationships advance our understanding of cloud‐circulation interactions in the extratropics. Key Points: Poleward shifts of the Southern Hemisphere extratropical jet stream change atmospheric cloud radiative heating through two key mechanismsThe fraction of low clouds that are exposed to space increases equatorward of the mean jet latitude, enhancing local radiative coolingClouds in extratropical cyclones shift poleward, causing radiative heating anomalies throughout the troposphere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Annular modes are the leading mode of variability in extratropical atmospheres, and a key source of predictability at midlatitudes. Previous studies of annular modes have primarily used dry atmospheric models, so that moisture's role in annular mode dynamics is still unclear. In this study, a moist two-layer quasigeostrophic channel model is used to study the effects of moisture on annular mode persistence. Using a channel model allows moisture's direct effects to be studied, rather than changes in persistence due to geometric effects associated with shifts in jet latitude on the sphere. Simulations are performed in which the strength of latent heat release is varied to investigate how annular mode persistence responds as precipitation becomes a leading term in the thermodynamic budget. At short lags (<20 model days, ≈4 Earth days), moisture increases annular mode persistence, reflecting weaker eddy activity that is less effective at disrupting zonal-mean wind anomalies. Comparisons to dry simulations with weaker mean flows demonstrate that moisture is particularly effective at damping high-frequency eddies, further enhancing short-lag persistence. At long lags (>20 model days), moisture weakly increases persistence, though it decreases the amplitudes of low-frequency annular mode anomalies. In the most realistic simulation, the greater short-lag persistence increases the e-folding time of the zonal index by 21 model days (≈4 Earth days). Moisture also causes a transition to propagating variability, though this does not seem to affect the leading mode's persistence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic Amplification is robustly seen in climate model simulations of future warming and in the paleoclimate record. Here, we focus on the past century of observations. We show that Arctic Amplification is only a recent phenomenon, and that for much of this period the Arctic cooled while the global‐mean temperature rose. To investigate why this occurred, we analyze large ensembles of comprehensive climate model simulations under different forcing scenarios. Our results suggest that the global warming from greenhouse gases was largely offset in the Arctic by regional cooling due to aerosols, with internal climate variability also contributing to Arctic cooling and global warming trends during this period. This suggests that the disruption of Arctic Amplification was due to a combination of factors unique to the 20th century, and that enhanced Arctic warming should be expected to be a consistent feature of climate change over the coming century. Plain Language Summary: Arctic Amplification is the phenomenon by which the Arctic warms at a faster rate than the global average. Evidence for the occurrence of Arctic Amplification is widely found in climate model simulations as well as in paleo proxy reconstructions of past climate changes. In this study, we investigate the extent to which Arctic Amplification has occurred in observations from the past century. We show that Arctic Amplification is only a recent phenomenon, and that for much of the 20th century, the Arctic cooled while the global‐mean temperature rose. We investigate why this happened using a range of climate model simulations, and we find that there were two main causes for these opposing trends. The first is that regional cooling from aerosols counteracted the warming from greenhouse gases in the Arctic. However, this cannot fully explain the observed trends. The second is that natural fluctuations of the climate system manifested in a pattern of Arctic cooling under global warming. This suggests that the disruption of Arctic Amplification was due to a combination of factors unique to the 20th century, implying that enhanced Arctic warming should be expected to be a consistent feature of climate change over the coming century. Key Points: For much of the past century the Arctic cooled while the globe warmed, with Arctic Amplification of warming only emerging more recentlyWithout increases in both aerosols and greenhouse gas emissions, Arctic Amplification would have occurred throughout the past centuryInternal variability also played an important role in setting the observed Arctic cooling and global warming trends [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southern Ocean (SO) surface winds are essential for ventilating the upper ocean by bringing heat and CO2 to the ocean interior. The relationships between mixed layer ventilation, the southern annular mode (SAM), and the storm tracks remain unclear because processes can be governed by short-term wind events as well as long-term means. In this study, observed time-varying 5-day probability density functions (PDFs) of ERA5 surface winds and stresses over the SO are used in a singular value decomposition to derive a linearly independent set of empirical basis functions. The first modes of wind (72% of the total wind variance) and stress (74% of the total stress variance) are highly correlated with a standard SAM index (r = 0.82) and reflect the SAM's role in driving cyclone intensity and, in turn, extreme westerly winds. The joint PDFs of zonal and meridional wind show that southerly and less westerly winds associated with strong mixed layer ventilation are more frequent during short and distinct negative SAM phases. The probability of these short-term events might be related to midlatitude atmospheric circulation. The second mode describes seasonal changes in the wind variance (16% of the total variance) that are uncorrelated with the first mode. The analysis produces similar results when repeated using 5-day PDFs from a suite of scatterometer products. Differences between wind product PDFs resemble the first mode of the PDFs. Together, these results show a strong correlation between surface stress PDFs and the leading modes of atmospheric variability, suggesting that empirical modes can serve as a novel pathway for understanding differences and variability of surface stress PDFs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Low‐cloud based emergent constraints have the potential to substantially reduce uncertainty in Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity, but recent work has shown that previously developed constraints fail in the latest generation of climate models, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Here, we investigate the potential for emergent constraints to reduce uncertainty in regional cloud feedbacks, rather than the global‐mean cloud feedback. Strong relationships are found between the monthly and interannual variability of tropical clouds, and the tropical net cloud feedback. These relationships are combined with observations to substantially narrow the uncertainty in the tropical cloud feedback and demonstrate that the tropical cloud feedback is likely >0Wm−2K−1. Promising relationships are also found in the 90°–60°S and 30°–60°N regions, though these relationships are not robust across model generations and we have not identified the associated physical mechanisms. Plain Language Summary: Clouds are the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future climate change. One promising approach for constraining how clouds will change in a warmer world is "emergent constraints" in which some quantity that we can observe today, like monthly cloud variability, is related to some aspect of the climate system's response to warming, like the strength of the cloud feedback. A number of emergent constraints based on cloud variability have been proposed; however, while these worked well in the previous generation of climate models (CMIP5), they perform poorly in the newest generation of climate models (CMIP6). Here, we propose that emergent constraints on clouds can still be useful for constraining regional cloud changes, even if they cannot be used to constrain changes in global cloud cover. Using simple metrics of regional cloud variability, we demonstrate the existence of strong relationships between metrics of monthly/interannual cloud variability and the long‐term tropical cloud feedback. These relationships are robust across the model generations, and allow us to substantially narrow the uncertainty in the tropical cloud feedback. Promising relationships are also seen in several other regions, but these are less robust across the model generations. Key Points: Global low‐cloud‐based emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity fail in CMIP6Strong relationships are found between unforced cloud variability and long‐term cloud feedbacks in several regionsRegional emergent constraints suggest the tropical cloud feedback is likely positive [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The precise mechanisms driving Arctic amplification are still under debate. Previous attribution methods compute the vertically uniform temperature change required to balance the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance caused by each forcing and feedback, with any departures from vertically uniform warming collected into the lapse-rate feedback. We propose an alternative attribution method using a single-column model that accounts for the forcing dependence of high-latitude lapse-rate changes. We examine this method in an idealized general circulation model (GCM), finding that, even though the column-integrated carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing and water vapor feedback are stronger in the tropics, they contribute to polar-amplified surface warming as they produce bottom-heavy warming in high latitudes. A separation of atmospheric temperature changes into local and remote contributors shows that, in the absence of polar surface forcing (e.g., sea ice retreat), changes in energy transport are primarily responsible for the polar-amplified pattern of warming. The addition of surface forcing substantially increases polar surface warming and reduces the contribution of atmospheric dry static energy transport to the warming. This physically based attribution method can be applied to comprehensive GCMs to provide a clearer view of the mechanisms behind Arctic amplification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increases in the severity of heat stress extremes are potentially one of the most impactful consequences of climate change, affecting human comfort, productivity, health, and mortality in many places on Earth. Heat stress results from a combination of elevated temperature and humidity, but the relative contributions of each of these to heat stress changes have yet to be quantified. Here, conditions for the baseline specific humidity are derived for when specific humidity or temperature dominates heat stress changes, as measured using the equivalent potential temperature (θE). Separate conditions are derived over ocean and over land, in addition to a condition for when relative humidity changes make a larger contribution than the Clausius-Clapeyron response at fixed relative humidity. These conditions are used to interpret the θE responses in transient warming simulations with an ensemble of models participating in phase 6 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project. The regional pattern of θE changes is shown to be largely determined by the pattern of specific humidity changes, with the pattern of temperature changes playing a secondary role. This holds whether considering changes in seasonal-mean θE or in extreme (98th-percentile) θE events, and uncertainty in the response of specific humidity to warming is shown to be the leading source of uncertainty in the θE response at most land locations. Finally, analysis of ERA5 data demonstrates that the pattern of observed θE changes is also well explained by the pattern of specific humidity changes. These results demonstrate that understanding regional changes in specific humidity is largely sufficient for understanding regional changes in heat stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar radiation modification (SRM) reduces the CO2‐induced change to the mean global hydrological cycle disproportionately more than it reduces the CO2‐induced increase in mean surface temperature. Thus, if SRM were used to offset all CO2‐induced mean warming, global‐mean precipitation would be less than in an unperturbed climate. Here, we show that the mismatch between the mean hydrological effects of CO2 and SRM may partly be alleviated by spectrally tuning the SRM intervention (reducing insolation at some wavelengths more than others). By concentrating solar dimming at near‐infrared wavelengths, where H2O has strong absorption bands, the direct effect of CO2 on the tropospheric energy budget can be offset, which minimizes perturbations to the mean hydrological cycle. Idealized cloud‐resolving simulations of radiative‐convective equilibrium confirm that spectrally tuned SRM can simultaneously maintain mean surface temperature and precipitation at their unperturbed values even as large quantities of CO2 are added to the atmosphere. Plain Language Summary: It may be possible to partly counteract CO2‐driven climate change by solar radiation modification (SRM) that intentionally reduces the amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth. But different wavelengths of the solar spectrum are absorbed at different altitudes within the surface‐atmosphere system, so different climatic effects are to be expected depending on which wavelengths of sunlight are affected by an SRM intervention. Here, we show that if the goal is to minimize perturbations to the mean hydrological cycle, the ideal spectrally tuned SRM intervention may need to focus on near‐infrared wavelengths. This study clarifies the basic physics underlying the effects of SRM on atmospheric energetics and the mean hydrological cycle. Key Points: Spectrally flat solar geoengineering reduces CO2‐induced change in mean rainfall disproportionately more than mean temperatureA spectrally tuned sunshade restores mean temperature and rainfall simultaneously in an idealized modelEmerging technologies could preferentially scatter sunlight in the near‐infrared, providing a spectral sunshade [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strong links are seen in observations between convective clustering and several properties of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). These links suggest that biases in how climate models simulate the ITCZ may be related to model biases in convective clustering or that there may be biases in how models represent the relationship between clustering and the ITCZ. We investigate these issues by analyzing convective clustering, and the link between clustering and ITCZ properties in 18 climate models. We find that the links between variability in convective clustering and variability of ITCZ properties are generally weaker and less robust in models than in observations. By contrast, model biases in the climatological convective clustering explain a substantial fraction of the climatological double‐ITCZ bias, though they do not explain biases in the climatological ITCZ width. Plain Language Summary: The tropical deep convection that forms deep and strongly precipitating clouds organizes in various patterns and shapes within a narrow rain band that spans the globe in the tropics. The form of organization of this tropical deep convection has been shown to covary with several other properties of the rain band, such as its meridional width, in observations. This raises the question whether climate models can represent these links between the organization of convection and the rain‐band properties. It is found that models simulate such a link between the spatial concentration of the deep convection and the width of the rain band, but this link is generally too weak. The models are unable to simulate the observed link between the concentration of the deep convection and the double‐peak structure of the rain band. By contrast, the biases in mean concentration of the deep convection cannot explain the biases in the meridional width of the rain band, but explain a substantial fraction of the biases in the double‐peak structure of the rain band. Key Points: Climate models underestimate the link between zonal convective clustering and the ITCZ widthModel biases in convective clustering explain double‐ITCZ biases, but not ITCZ width biasesSeveral factors may play a role in linking convective clustering and the ITCZ width, but no dominant mechanism was found [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Convective clustering, the spatial organization of tropical deep convection, can manifest itself in two ways: through a decrease in the total area covered by convection and/or through a decrease in the number of convective areas. Much of our current understanding of convective clustering comes from simulations in idealized radiative convective equilibrium (RCE) configurations. In these simulations the two forms of convective clustering tend to covary, and their individual effects on the climate are thus hard to disentangle. This study shows that in aquaplanet simulations with more realistic boundary conditions, such as meridional gradients of surface temperature and rotational forces, the two aspects of convective clustering are not equivalent and are associated with different impacts on the large‐scale climate. For instance, reducing the convective area in the equatorial region in the aquaplanet simulations results in broader meridional humidity and rain distributions and in lower tropospheric temperatures throughout the tropics. By contrast, the number of convective regions primarily impacts the zonal variance of humidity‐related quantities in the aquaplanet simulations, as the distribution of convective regions affects the size of the subsidence regions and thereby the moistening influence of convective regions. The aquaplanet simulations confirm many other qualitative results from RCE simulations, such as a reduction of equatorial tropospheric humidity when the area covered by convection diminishes. Plain Language Summary: Strong precipitation events in Earth's tropics are associated with regions of strong upward motions that can extend over the entire depth of the troposphere. These regions of strong upward motions are not uniformly distributed throughout the tropics but occur mostly as clusters of various shapes and sizes, typically within a narrow zonal band. We show here with idealized climate simulations that different forms of spatial organization of the regions of upward motions have distinct impacts on the climate, highlighting the need to consider several metrics to characterize the organization. For instance, reducing the area covered by upward motions close to the equator results in broader meridional humidity and rain distributions. By contrast, the number of regions of upward motion primarily impacts the zonal variance of humidity‐related quantities. Key Points: The impact of convective clustering on tropical climate depends on both the total convecting area and on the number of convective clustersThe total convective area affects the meridional distribution of water; the number of convective regions affects the zonal variance of waterMany findings from radiative convective equilibrium studies are confirmed in aquaplanet simulations with realistic sea surface temperatures [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are large uncertainties in the potential impacts of solar radiation modification (SRM) and in how these impacts depend on the way SRM is deployed. One open question concerns trade‐offs between latitudinal profiles of insolation reduction and climate response. Here, a moist energy balance model is used to evaluate several SRM proposals, providing fundamental insight into how the insolation reduction profile affects the climate response. The optimal SRM profile is found to depend on the intensity of the intervention, as the most effective profile for moderate SRM focuses the reduction at high latitudes, whereas the most effective profile for strong SRM is tropically amplified. The effectiveness of SRM is also shown to depend on when it is applied, an important factor to consider when designing SRM proposals. Using an energy balance model allows us to provide physical explanations for these results while also suggesting future avenues of research with comprehensive climate models. Key Points: Simple energy balance models can build intuition for the climate system's response to solar radiation management, complementing global climate model studiesThe most effective latitudinal profile of insolation reduction depends on the intensity of the solar radiation modification interventionThe effectiveness of solar radiation modification interventions depends on when they are applied not just how they are applied [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The nonacceleration theorem states that the torque exerted on the atmosphere by orography is exactly balanced by the convergence of momentum by the stationary waves that the orography excites. This balance is tested in simulations with a stationary wave model and with a dry, idealized general circulation model (GCM), in which large-scale orography is placed at the latitude of maximum surface wind speed. For the smallest mountain considered (maximum height H = 0.5 m), the nonacceleration balance is nearly met, but the damping in the stationary wave model induces an offset between the stationary eddy momentum flux (EMF) convergence and the mountain torque, leading to residual mean flow changes. A stationary nonlinearity appears for larger mountains (H ≥ 10 m), driven by preferential deflection of the flow around the poleward flank of the orography, and causes further breakdown of the nonacceleration balance. The nonlinearity grows as H is increased, and is stronger in the GCM than in the stationary wave model, likely due to interactions with transient eddies. The midlatitude jet shifts poleward for H ≤ 2 km and equatorward for larger mountains, reflecting changes in the transient EMFs, which push the jet poleward for smaller mountains and equatorward for larger mountains. The stationary EMFs consistently force the jet poleward. These results add to our understanding of how orography affects the atmosphere's momentum budget, providing insight into how the nonacceleration theorem breaks down; the roles of stationary nonlinearities and transients; and how orography affects the strength and latitude of eddy-driven jets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rate of transient warming is determined by a number of factors, notably the radiative forcing from increasing CO2 concentrations and the net radiative feedback. Uncertainty in transient warming comes from both the uncertainty in each factor and from the warming's sensitivity to uncertainty in each factor. An energy balance model is used to untangle these two components of uncertainty in transient warming, which is shown to be most sensitive to uncertainty in the forcing and not to uncertainty in radiative feedbacks. Additionally, uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake is more important than uncertainty in the rate of ocean heat uptake. Three further implications are as follows: (1) transient warming is highly sensitive to uncertainty in emissions, (2) caution is warranted when extrapolating future warming trends from short‐lived climate perturbations, and (3) climate models tuned using the historical record are highly sensitive to assumptions made about the historical forcing. Key Points: Transient warming is most sensitive to uncertainty in the radiative forcing and not to uncertainty in the radiative feedbacksReducing uncertainty in the radiative forcing is the most efficient way of reducing uncertainty in transient warmingRadiative feedbacks of climate models that are tuned to the historical record are highly sensitive to the assumed historical forcing [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of large-scale orography on wintertime near-surface (850 hPa) temperature variability on daily and synoptic time scales (from days to weeks) in the Northern Hemisphere is investigated. Using a combination of theory, idealized modeling work, and simulations with a comprehensive climate model, it is shown that large-scale orography reduces upstream temperature gradients, in turn reducing upstream temperature variability, and enhances downstream temperature gradients, enhancing downstream temperature variability. Hence, the presence of the Rockies on the western edge of the North American continent increases temperature gradients over North America and, consequently, increases North American temperature variability. By contrast, the presence of the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalayas on the eastern edge of the Eurasian continent damps temperature variability over most of Eurasia. However, Tibet and the Himalayas also interfere with the downstream development of storms in the North Pacific storm track, and thus damp temperature variability over North America, by approximately as much as the Rockies enhance it. Large-scale orography is also shown to impact the skewness of downstream temperature distributions, as temperatures to the north of the enhanced temperature gradients are more positively skewed while temperatures to the south are more negatively skewed. This effect is most clearly seen in the northwest Pacific, off the east coast of Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivated by observations of southward ocean heat transport (OHT) in the northern Indian Ocean during summer, the role of the ocean in modulating monsoon circulations is explored by coupling an atmospheric model to a slab ocean with an interactive representation of OHT and an idealized subtropical continent. Southward OHT by the cross-equatorial cells is caused by Ekman flow driven by southwesterly monsoon winds in the summer months, cooling sea surface temperatures (SSTs) south of the continent. This increases the reversed meridional surface gradient of moist static energy, shifting the precipitation maximum over the land and strengthening the monsoonal circulation, in the sense of enhancing the vertical wind shear. However, the atmosphere's cross-equatorial meridional overturning circulation is also weakened by the presence of southward OHT, as the atmosphere is required to transport less energy across the equator. The sensitivity of these effects to varying the strength of the OHT, fixing the OHT at its annual-mean value, and to removing the land is explored. Comparisons with more realistic models suggest that the idealized model used in this study produces a reasonable representation of the effect of OHT on SSTs equatorward of subtropical continents, and hence can be used to study the role of OHT in shaping monsoon circulations on Earth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The precipitation efficiency of convection (ε) plays an important role in simple models of the tropical atmosphere as well as in global climate models' projections of future climate changes, but remains poorly understood and poorly constrained. A particularly urgent question is how ε will change in warmer climates. To address these issues, this study investigates the precipitation efficiency in simulations of radiative‐convective equilibrium with a cloud‐resolving model forced by a wide range of sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Two different domains are considered: a small, doubly periodic domain, and a 2‐D (x‐z) "mock‐Walker" domain with a sinusoidal SST profile that resembles the equatorial Pacific, and the sensitivities of the results to the microphysical scheme and to the horizontal resolution are also explored. It is found that ε generally increases with warming in the small domain simulations because of increases in the efficiency with which cloud condensate is converted into precipitation, with changes in the re‐evaporation of falling precipitation playing a secondary role. This picture is complicated in the 2‐D simulations by substantial changes in the degree of convective organization as the underlying SSTs are varied. ε is found to decrease as convection becomes more organized, because convective organization results in relatively more low clouds, which have small (≤0.1) precipitation efficiencies, and relatively less high clouds, which have larger (∼0.4) precipitation efficiencies. Plain Language Summary: The precipitation efficiency of convection (ε) quantifies the fraction of water that condenses in a cloud that reaches the surface as precipitation. Recent work has shown that changes in ε can play an important role in determining the warming of climate models in response to increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and ε is also a key factor in theories for the dynamics of the tropical atmosphere. Despite this importance, however, ε is poorly understood and poorly constrained. In this study, we take a first step to addressing this issue by investigating how precipitation efficiency behaves in idealized simulations of the tropical atmosphere, in which the underlying sea surface temperature is varied across a wide range of values. We find that ε generally increases with warming because clouds become denser and so form precipitation more easily, though in some cases ε decreases because of changes in the large‐scale flow of the tropical atmosphere. Key Points: Precipitation efficiency is investigated in RCE simulations with a CRM forced by a wide range of SSTsPrecipitation efficiency generally increases with warming because of increased cloud densityChanges in the large‐scale circulation can cause precipitation efficiency to decrease [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative contributions of the meridional gradients in insolation and in longwave optical depth (caused by gradients in water vapor) to the equator-to-pole temperature difference, and to Earth's climate in general, have not been quantified before. As a first step to understanding these contributions, this study investigates simulations with an idealized general circulation model in which the gradients are eliminated individually or jointly, while keeping the global means fixed. The insolation gradient has a larger influence on the model's climate than the gradient in optical depth, but both make sizeable contributions and the changes are largest when the gradients are reduced simultaneously. Removing either gradient increases global-mean surface temperature due to an increase in the tropospheric lapse rate, while the meridional surface temperature gradients are reduced. "Global warming" experiments with these configurations suggest similar climate sensitivities; however, the warming patterns and feedbacks are quite different. Changes in the meridional energy fluxes lead to polar amplification of the response in all but the setup in which both gradients are removed. The lapse-rate feedback acts to polar amplify the responses in the Earth-like setup, but is uniformly negative in the other setups. Simple models are used to interpret the results, including a prognostic model that can accurately predict regional surface temperatures, given the meridional distributions of insolation and longwave optical depths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between climate models' internal variability and their response to external forcings is investigated. Frequency-dependent regressions are performed between the outgoing top-of-atmosphere (TOA) energy fluxes and the global-mean surface temperature in the preindustrial control simulations of the CMIP5 archive. Two distinct regimes are found. At subdecadal frequencies the surface temperature and the outgoing shortwave flux are in quadrature, while the outgoing longwave flux is linearly related to temperature and acts as a negative feedback on temperature perturbations. On longer time scales the outgoing shortwave and longwave fluxes are both linearly related to temperature, with the longwave continuing to act as a negative feedback and the shortwave acting as a positive feedback on temperature variability. In addition to the different phase relationships, the two regimes can also be seen in estimates of the coherence and of the frequency-dependent regression coefficients. The frequency-dependent regression coefficients for the total cloudy-sky flux on time scales of 2.5 to 3 years are found to be strongly (r2 > 0.6) related to the models' equilibrium climate sensitivities (ECSs), suggesting a potential "emergent constraint" for Earth's ECS. However, O(100) years of data are required for this relationship to become robust. A simple model for Earth's surface temperature variability and its relationship to the TOA fluxes is used to provide a physical interpretation of these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An equatorial heat source mimicking the strong diabatic heating above the west Pacific is added to an idealized, dry general circulation model. For small (<0.5 K day-1) heating rates the responses closely match the expectations from linear Matsuno-Gill theory, though the amplitudes of the responses increase sublinearly. This ''linear'' regime breaks down for larger heating rates and it is found that this is because the stability of the tropical atmosphere increases. At the same time, the equatorial winds increasingly superrotate. This superrotation is driven by stationary eddy momentum fluxes by the waves excited by the heating and is damped by the vertical advection of low-momentum air by the mean flow and, at large heating rates, by the divergence of momentum by transient eddies. These dynamics are explored in additional experiments in which the equator-to-pole temperature gradient is varied. Very strong superrotation is produced when a large heating rate is applied to a setup with a relatively weak equator-to-pole temperature gradient, though there is no evidence that this is a case of ''runaway'' superrotation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dry atmospheric general circulation model is forced with large-scale, Gaussian orography in an attempt to isolate a regime in which the model responds linearly to orographic forcing and then to study the departures from linearity as the orography is increased in amplitude. In contrast to previous results, which emphasized the meridional propagation of orographically forced stationary waves, using the standard Held-Suarez (H-S) control climate, it is found that the linear regime is characterized by a meridionally trapped, zonally propagating wave. Meridionally trapped waves of this kind have been seen in other contexts, where they have been termed 'circumglobal waves.' As the height of the orography is increased, the circumglobal wave coexists with a meridionally propagating wave and for large-enough heights the meridionally propagating wave dominates the response. A barotropic model on a sphere reproduces this trapped wave in the linear regime and also reproduces the transition to meridional propagation with increasing amplitude. However, mean-flow modification by the stationary waves is very different in the two models, making it difficult to argue that the transitions have the same causes. When adding asymmetry across the equator to the H-S control climate and placing the orography in the cooler hemisphere, it becomes harder to generate trapped waves in the GCM and the trapping becomes sensitive to the shape of the orography. The barotropic model overestimates the trapping in this case. These results suggest that an improved understanding of the role of circumglobal waves will be needed to understand the stationary wave field and its sensitivity to the changes in the zonal-mean climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fluctuation-dissipation theorem (FDT) provides a means of calculating the response of a dynamical system to a small force by constructing a linear operator that depends only on data from the internal variability of the unperturbed system. Here the FDT is used to estimate the response of a two-layer quasigeostrophic model to two zonally symmetric torques, both barotropic, with the same sign of the forcing in the two layers, and baroclinic, with opposite sign forcing in the two layers. The supercriticality of the model is also varied to test how the FDT fares, as this parameter is varied. To perform the FDT calculations the data are decomposed onto empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and only those EOFs that are well resolved are retained in the FDT calculations. In the barotropic case good qualitative estimates are obtained for all values of the supercriticality, though the FDT consistently overestimates the response, perhaps because of significant non-Gaussian behavior present in the model. Nevertheless, this adds to the evidence that the annular-mode time scale plays an important role in determining the response of the midlatitudes to small perturbations. The baroclinic case is more challenging for the FDT. However, by constructing different bases with which to calculate the EOFs, it is shown that the issue in this case is that the baroclinic variability is poorly sampled, not that the FDT fails. The strategies developed in order to generate these estimates may be applicable to situations in which the FDT is applied to larger systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between the tropical cloud radiative effect (CRE) and tropical surface temperature variability on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time scales is investigated in preindustrial control simulations from the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive. The tropical CRE is binned according to midtropospheric vertical velocities and then regressed in frequency space versus tropical mean surface temperatures. Low clouds play a leading role in the relationship between clouds and surface temperature variability, amplifying ENSO‐induced surface temperature anomalies through thermodynamically driven changes in the shortwave CRE. Changes in CRE driven by changes in the large‐scale dynamics have a minor influence on surface temperature variability. It is shown that the regression coefficients at ENSO frequencies between the CRE in regions of moderate subsidence and of weak ascent, and tropical mean surface temperatures are well correlated with models' climate sensitivities, constituting a potential emergent constraint on climate sensitivity. Plain Language Summary: The relationship between clouds and surface temperature anomalies generated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events is still poorly understood. This is concerning, both because we would like to better understand the dynamics of ENSO and because we would like to use this relationship to constrain the long‐term response of clouds to increased CO2 concentrations. Here a new approach is taken to investigate the behavior of different cloud types during ENSO events in ENSO events in state‐of‐the‐art climate models. It is found that in the models, ENSO‐induced surface temperature anomalies are mainly affected by changes in the amount of low clouds, with variations in high clouds and in the relative fraction of low versus high clouds playing minor roles. Furthermore, the changes in low clouds during ENSO events are strongly correlated with the models' climate sensitivities and their long‐term warming in response to doubling CO2 concentrations. This shows that the changes of tropical low clouds during ENSO events can be used to better constrain the warming that Earth will experience if CO2 concentrations continue increasing. Key Points: Low clouds dominate the relationship between clouds and surface temperatures at ENSO frequenciesThis is due to the thermodynamic variability of low clouds and not to changes in the large‐scale dynamicsThe cloud radiative effect due to low clouds during ENSO events is well correlated with models' sensitivities [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]