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Summary: A prospective population-based survey in a region of the Republic of Uzbekistan determined the incidence of fractures at the hip. The hip fracture rates were used to create a FRAX® model to facilitate fracture risk assessment in Uzbekistan. Objective: This paper describes the epidemiology of hip fracture in the Republic of Uzbekistan that was used to develop a country-specific FRAX® tool for fracture prediction. Methods: During a 1-year (2016/17) prospective population-based survey in the Pap district of the Republic of Uzbekistan, hip fractures were prospectively identified from hospital registers, trauma centres and primary care and community sources. Age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and national mortality rates were incorporated into a FRAX model for Uzbekistan. Fracture probabilities were compared with those from neighbouring Kazakhstan and Kyrgystan. Results: Approximately 41% of hip fracture cases did not come to medical attention, and two thirds of patients overall were not admitted to hospital. The incidence of hip fracture applied nationally suggested that the estimated number of hip fractures nationwide in persons over the age of 50 years for 2015 was 16,764 and is predicted to increase more than three-fold to 60,272 in 2050. FRAX-based probabilities were higher in Uzbekistan than Kazakhstan or Kyrgystan. Conclusion: The FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Uzbek population and help guide decisions about treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary : A country-specific FRAX model has been developed for the Ukraine to replace the Austrian model hitherto used. Comparison of the Austrian and Ukrainian models indicated that the former markedly overestimated fracture probability whilst correctly stratifying risk. Introduction: FRAX has been used to estimate osteoporotic fracture risk since 2009. Rather than using a surrogate model, the Austrian version of FRAX was adopted for clinical practice. Since then, data have become available on hip fracture incidence in the Ukraine. Methods: The incidence of hip fracture was computed from three regional estimates and used to construct a country-specific FRAX model for the Ukraine. The model characteristics were compared with those of the Austrian FRAX model, previously used in Ukraine by using all combinations of six risk factors and eight values of BMD (total number of combinations =512). Results: The relationship between the probabilities of a major fracture derived from the two versions of FRAX indicated a close correlation between the two estimates ( r > 0.95). The Ukrainian version, however, gave markedly lower probabilities than the Austrian model at all ages. For a major osteoporotic fracture, the median probability was lower by 25% at age 50 years and the difference increased with age. At the age of 60, 70 and 80 years, the median value was lower by 30, 53 and 65%, respectively. Similar findings were observed for men and for hip fracture. Conclusion: The Ukrainian FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Ukrainian population and help to guide decisions about treatment. The study also indicates that the use of surrogate FRAX models or models from other countries, whilst correctly stratifying risk, may markedly over or underestimate the absolute fracture probability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New assessment guidelines for osteoporosis in Japan include the use of the WHO risk assessment tool (FRAX) that computes the 10-year probability of fracture. The aim of this study was to determine the distribution of fracture probabilities and to assess the impact of probability-based intervention thresholds in women from Japan aged 50 years and older. Age-specific simulation cohorts were constructed from the prevalences of clinical risk factors and femoral neck bone mineral density to determine the distribution of fracture probabilities as assessed by FRAX. These data were used to estimate the number and proportion of women at or above a 10-year fracture probability of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 %. In addition, case scenarios that applied a FRAX probability threshold of 15 % were compared with current guidance. In the absence of additional criteria for treatment, a 15 % fracture probability threshold would identify approximately 32 % of women over the age of 50 years (9.3 million women) as eligible for treatment. Because of expected changes in population demography, the 15 % fracture probability threshold would capture approximately 38 % of women over the age of 50 years (12.7 million women), mainly those aged 80 years or older. The introduction of a FRAX threshold of 15 % would permit treatment in women with clinical risk factors that would otherwise fall below previously established intervention thresholds. The incorporation of FRAX into assessment guidelines is likely to redirect treatments for osteoporosis from younger women at low risk to elderly women at high fracture risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Postmenopausal osteoporosis is a chronic disease requiring treatment that balances long-term fracture efficacy against risk.Methods: We reviewed the efficacy and safety of calcium and vitamin D, the selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs), the bisphosphonates, denosumab, and strontium ranelate in studies of 3 years or longer.Results: Six trials lasted for 5 years, and seven went beyond that. The evidence beyond 5 years is generally weak, mainly due to methodological issues (open-label design, small samples, or absence of placebo control). Although calcium and vitamin D appear to be beneficial, the data are insufficient to evaluate benefits and risk beyond 3 years. The fracture efficacy of SERMs beyond 5 years is not known, though increases in bone mineral density (BMD) appear to be maintained. The SERMs have good long-term safety, including protective effects against breast cancer. The bisphosphonates have established fracture efficacy to 3 years, and 4 or 5 years with alendronate and risedronate. The evidence beyond 5 years indicates sustained increases in BMD. The safety of the bisphosphonates does not appear to be modified with time, with the possible exceptions of atypical subtrochanteric fracture and other events of unknown frequency. Denosumab has been tested up to 5 years, with continued increased in BMD and no reported safety issues. There is evidence for fracture efficacy of strontium ranelate, and sustained increases in BMD over 10 years. Strontium ranelate has good long-term safety.Conclusion: Robust long-term studies are relatively rare for the osteoporosis treatments, and generally show maintenance of BMD and, for some agents, an additional reduction in fracture incidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]