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Higher milk intake has been associated with a lower stroke risk, but not with risk of CHD. Residual confounding or reverse causation cannot be excluded. Therefore, we estimated the causal association of milk consumption with stroke and CHD risk through instrumental variable (IV) and gene-outcome analyses. IV analysis included 29 328 participants (4611 stroke; 9828 CHD) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-CVD (eight European countries) and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL) case-cohort studies. rs4988235, a lactase persistence (LP) SNP which enables digestion of lactose in adulthood was used as genetic instrument. Intake of milk was first regressed on rs4988235 in a linear regression model. Next, associations of genetically predicted milk consumption with stroke and CHD were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. Gene-outcome analysis included 777 024 participants (50 804 cases) from MEGASTROKE (including EPIC-CVD), UK Biobank and EPIC-NL for stroke, and 483 966 participants (61 612 cases) from CARDIoGRAM, UK Biobank, EPIC-CVD and EPIC-NL for CHD. In IV analyses, each additional LP allele was associated with a higher intake of milk in EPIC-CVD (β = 13·7 g/d; 95 % CI 8·4, 19·1) and EPIC-NL (36·8 g/d; 95 % CI 20·0, 53·5). Genetically predicted milk intake was not associated with stroke (HR per 25 g/d 1·05; 95 % CI 0·94, 1·16) or CHD (1·02; 95 % CI 0·96, 1·08). In gene-outcome analyses, there was no association of rs4988235 with risk of stroke (OR 1·02; 95 % CI 0·99, 1·05) or CHD (OR 0·99; 95 % CI 0·95, 1·03). Current Mendelian randomisation analysis does not provide evidence for a causal inverse relationship between milk consumption and stroke or CHD risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent losses caused by the unprecedented 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami disaster have stimulated further research efforts, notably in the mechanisms and probabilistic determination of tsunami-induced damage, in order to provide the necessary information for future risk assessment and mitigation. The stochastic approach typically adopts fragility functions, which express the probability that a building will reach or exceed a predefined damage level usually for one, sometimes several measures of tsunami intensity. However, improvements in the derivation of fragility functions are still needed in order to yield reliable predictions of tsunami damage to buildings. In particular, extensive disaggregated databases, as well as measures of tsunami intensity beyond the commonly used tsunami flow depth should be used to potentially capture variations in the data which have not been explained by previous models. This study proposes to derive fragility functions with additional intensity measures for the city of Kesennuma, which was extensively damaged during the 2011 tsunami and for which a large and disaggregated dataset of building damage is available. In addition to the surveyed tsunami flow depth, the numerically estimated flow velocities as well as a binary indicator of debris impact are included in the model and used simultaneously to estimate building damage probabilities. Following the recently proposed methodology for fragility estimation based on generalized linear models, which overcomes the shortcomings of classic linear regression in fragility analyses, ordinal regression is applied and the reliability of the model estimates is assessed using a proposed penalized accuracy measure, more suitable than the traditional classification error rate for ordinal models. In order to assess the predictive power of the model, penalized accuracy is estimated through a repeated tenfold cross-validation scheme. For the first time, multivariate tsunami fragility functions are derived and represented in the form of fragility surfaces. The results show that the model is able to predict tsunami damage with satisfactory predictive accuracy and that debris impact is a crucial factor in the determination of building collapse probabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tsunamis are disastrous events typically causing loss of life, and extreme damage to the built environment, as shown by the recent disaster that struck the East coast of Japan in 2011. In order to quantitatively estimate damage in tsunami prone areas, some studies used a probabilistic approach and derived fragility functions. However, the models chosen do not provide a statistically sound representation of the data. This study applies advanced statistical methods in order to address these limitations. The area of study is the city of Ishinomaki in Japan, the worst affected area during the 2011 event and for which an extensive amount of detailed building damage data has been collected. Ishinomaki city displays a variety of geographical environments that would have significantly affected tsunami flow characteristics, namely a plain, a narrow coast backed up by high topography (terrain), and a river. The fragility analysis assesses the relative structural vulnerability between these areas, and reveals that the buildings surrounding the river were less likely to be damaged. The damage probabilities for the terrain area (with relatively higher flow depths and velocities) were lower or similar to the plain, which confirms the beneficial role of coastal protection. The model diagnostics show tsunami flow depth alone is a poor predictor of tsunami damage for reinforced concrete and steel structures, and for all structures other variables are influential and need to be taken into account in order to improve fragility estimations. In particular, evidence shows debris impact contributed to at least a significant amount of non-structural damage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tsunamis are destructive natural phenomena which cause extensive damage to the built environment, affecting the livelihoods and economy of the impacted nations. This has been demonstrated by the tragic events of the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, or the Great East Japan tsunami in 2011. Following such events, a few studies have attempted to assess the fragility of the existing building inventory by constructing empirical stochastic functions, which relate the damage to a measure of tsunami intensity. However, these studies typically fit a linear statistical model to the available damage data, which are aggregated in bins of similar levels of tsunami intensity. This procedure, however, cannot deal well with aggregated data, low and high damage probabilities, nor does it result in the most realistic representation of the tsunami-induced damage. Deviating from this trend, the present study adopts the more realistic generalised linear models which address the aforementioned disadvantages. The proposed models are fitted to the damage database, containing 178,448 buildings surveyed in the aftermath of the 2011 Japanese tsunami, provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure Transport and Tourism in Japan. In line with the results obtained in previous studies, the fragility curves show that wooden buildings (the dominant construction type in Japan) are the least resistant against tsunami loading. The diagnostics show that taking into account both the building's construction type and the tsunami flow depth is crucial to the quality of the damage estimation and that these two variables do not act independently. In addition, the diagnostics reveal that tsunami flow depth estimates low levels of damage reasonably well; however, it is not the most representative measure of intensity of the tsunami for high damage states (especially structural damage). Further research using disaggregated damage data and additional explanatory variables is required in order to obtain reliable model estimations of building damage probability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The new diagnostic threshold of hemoglobin A(1c) was made based on evidence from cross-sectional studies, and no longitudinal study supports its validity. To examine whether hemoglobin A(1c) of 6.5% or higher defines a threshold for elevated risk of incident retinopathy, we analyzed longitudinal data of 19,897 Japanese adults who underwent a health checkup in 2006 and were followed up 3 years later. We used logistic regression models and restricted cubic spline models to examine the relationship between baseline hemoglobin A(1c) levels and the prevalence and the 3-year incidence of retinopathy. The restricted cubic spline model indicated a possible threshold for the risk of incident retinopathy at hemoglobin A(1c) levels of 6.0-7.0%. Logistic regression analysis found that individuals with hemoglobin A(1c) levels of 6.5-6.9% were at significantly higher risk of developing retinopathy at 3 years compared with those with hemoglobin A(1c) levels of 5.0-5.4% (adjusted odds ratio, 2.35 [95% CI 1.08-5.11]). Those with hemoglobin A(1c) levels between 5.5 and 6.4% exhibited no evidence of elevated risks. We did not observe a threshold in the analysis of prevalent retinopathy. Our longitudinal results support the validity of the new hemoglobin A(1c) threshold of 6.5% or higher for diagnosing diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 27 February 2010, a megathrust earthquake of Mw = 8.8 generated a destructive tsunami in Chile. It struck not only Chilean coast but propagated all the way to Japan. After the event occurred, the post-tsunami survey team was assembled, funded by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), to survey the area severely affected by the tsunami. The tsunami damaged and destroyed numerous houses, especially in the town of Dichato. In order to estimate the structural fragility against tsunami hazard in this area, tsunami fragility curves were developed. Surveyed data of inundation depth and visual inspection of satellite images of Dichato were used to classify the damage to housing. A practical method suitable when there are limitations on available data for numerical simulation or damage evaluation from surveys is presented here. This study is the first application of tsunami fragility curves on the South American Pacific coast and it might be of practical use for communities with similar characteristics along the west Pacific coast. The proposed curve suggests that structures in Dichato will be severely damaged -- with a 68% probability -- already at 2m tsunami inundation depth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pacific Ocean is the location where two-thirds of tsunamis have occurred, resulting in a great number of casualties. Once information on an earthquake has been issued, it is important to understand if there is a tsunami generation risk in relation with a specific earthquake magnitude or focal depth. This study proposes a Tsunamigenic Ratio (TR) that is defined as the ratio between the number of earthquake-generated tsunamis and the total number of earthquakes. Earthquake and tsunami data used in this study were selected from a database containing tsunamigenic earthquakes from prior 1900 to 2011. The TR is calculated from earthquake events with a magnitude greater than 5.0, a focal depth shallower than 200 km and a sea depth less than 7 km. The results suggest that a great earthquake magnitude and a shallow focal depth have a high potential to generate tsunamis with a large tsunami height. The average TR in the Pacific Ocean is 0.4, whereas the TR for specific regions of the Pacific Ocean varies from 0.3 to 0.7. The TR calculated for each region shows the relationship between three influential parameters: earthquake magnitude, focal depth and sea depth. The three parameters were combined and proposed as a dimensionless parameter called the Tsunami Index (TI). TI can express better relationship with the TR and with maximum tsunami height, while the three parameters mentioned above cannot. The results show that recent submarine earthquakes had a higher potential to generate a tsunami with a larger tsunami height than during the last century. A tsunami is definitely generated if the TI is larger than 7.0. The proposed TR and TI will help ascertain the tsunami generation risk of each earthquake event based on a statistical analysis of the historical data and could be an important decision support tool during the early tsunami warning stage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the examination of three practical tsunami run-up models that can be used to assess the tsunami impact on human beings in densely populated areas. The first of the examined models applies a uniform bottom roughness coefficient throughout the study area. The second uses a very detailed topographic data set that includes the building height information integrated on a Digital Elevation Model (DEM); and the third model utilizes different bottom roughness coefficients, depending on the type of land use and on the percentage of building occupancy on each grid cell. These models were compared with each other by taking the one with the most detailed topographic data (which is the second) as reference. The analysis was performed with the aim of identifying how specific features of high resolution topographic data can influence the tsunami run-up characteristics. Further, we promote a method to be used when very detailed topographic data is unavailable and discuss the related limitations. To this purpose we demonstrate that the effect of buildings on the tsunami flow can be well modeled by using an equivalent roughness coefficient if the topographic data has no information of building height. The results from the models have been utilized to quantify the tsunami impact by using the tsunami casualty algorithm. The models have been applied in Padang city, Indonesia, which is one of the areas with the highest potential of tsunami risk in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami damaged and destroyed numerous buildings and houses in Thailand. Estimation of tsunami impact to buildings from this event and evaluation of the potential risks are important but still in progress. The tsunami fragility curve is a function used to estimate the structural fragility against tsunami hazards. This study was undertaken to develop fragility curves using visual inspection of high-resolution satellite images (IKONOS) taken before and after tsunami events to classify whether the buildings were destroyed or not based on the remaining roof. Then, a tsunami inundation model is created to reconstruct the tsunami features such as inundation depth, current velocity, and hydrodynamic force of the event. It is assumed that the fragility curves are expressed as normal or lognormal distribution functions and the estimation of the median and log-standard deviation is performed using least square fitting. From the results, the developed fragility curves for different types of building materials (mixed type, reinforced concrete and wood) show consistent performance in damage probability and when compared to the existing curves for other locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A tsunamigenic sediment layer has been discovered in fluvio-alluvial sequences on the northern coast of the Marmara Sea, northwestern Turkey. The layer consists of unsorted silty coarse sand including terrestrial molluscs and charcoal fragments. The AMS radiometric ages of the shells have been estimated at around BC 400, AD 300, AD 400, and AD 1000. We propose that a tsunami occurred in the Marmara Sea in the middle of 11th century and invaded the fluvial plains. The older fossils were derived from the underlying horizons, and it is probable that buoyant materials such as terrestrial molluscs and charcoals were isolated from liquefied sediments during submarine sliding. Slope failure of coastal blocks triggered by fault movement generated tsunamis, which might have transported floating materials to the backshore. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

— Underwater landslides can trigger local tsunamis with high runup, endangering human life and devastating coastal cities, offshore structures, communication cables, and port facilities. Unfortunately, hazards from underwater landslides are not well understood and the extents of their potential damage remain difficult to ascertain at present. There is immediate need for multidisciplinary research to improve our understanding and plan countermeasures for mitigating their hazards. Conceived in the wake of the Papua New Guinea earthquake landslide and tsunami of 1998, this volume summarizes the state-of-the-art knowledge on underwater landslides and their potential to generate tsunamis from the multidisciplinary perspectives of observational and engineering seismology, geotechnical engineering, marine geology, and hydrodynamics. These various fields of engineering and science offer new synergetic opportunities to examine landslide tsunamis. This paper makes recommendations on future research directions, and will hopefully advance scientists' and engineers' understanding of these natural hazards and assist planners in mitigating their risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Runup data in Biak Island and itsnearby islets are described with discussions oftsunami magnitude and a few characteristics such aswitnessed arrival times, wave periods and wavenumbers. From an engineering viewpoint, a relationbetween inundation depth and current velocity on landis also described with relations between inundationdepth and degree of damage to houses and between sanderosion depth and current velocity in backshoreregion, based on data collected from the present andpast tsunamis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. The plasma level of Z-300 reached a maximum (Cmax) at 30 min after the oral administration of Z-300 to dog, and disappeared from the systemic circulation with a halflife of 8-9 h. The bioavailability of Z-300 was 52% after the oral administration of Z-300, 3 mg/kg. At doses ranging from 3 to 30 mg/kg, Cmax and AUC (area under the plasma concentration-time curve) were proportional to the dose. 2. The plasma level of Z-300 reached Cmax at 10 min after the oral administration of Z-300 to rat, and disappeared from the systemic circulation with a half-life of 0.8-1.6 h. The bioavailability of Z-300 was 39% after the oral administration of Z-300, 10 mg/kg, and there was a non-linear relationship between the plasma level-time profile of Z-300 and the administered dose (3-50 mg/kg). 3. The binding of Z-300 to plasma protein was 92% in man, 65% in dog and 25% in rat. It is suggested that these species differences were due to the content of alpha1-acid glycoprotein (alpha1-AG), because Z-300 bound more strongly to alpha1-AG than to albumin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the eruption of Mount Anak Krakatau, a considerable landslide occurred on the southwestern part of the volcano and, upon entering the sea, generated a large tsunami within the Sunda Strait, Indonesia, on December 22, 2018. This tsunami traveled ~ 5 km across the strait basin and inundated the shorelines of Sumatra and Java with a vertical runup reaching 13 m. Following the event, observed field data, GPS measurements of the inundation, and multibeam echo soundings of the bathymetry within the strait were collected and publicly provided. Using this dataset, numerical modeling of the tsunami was conducted using the two-layer (soil and water) TUNAMI-N2 model based on a combination of landslide sources and bathymetry data. The two-layer model was implemented to nest the grid system using the finest grid size of 20 m. To constrain the unknown landslide parameters, the differential evolution (DE) global optimization algorithm was applied, which resulted in a parameter set that minimized the deviation from the measured bathymetry after the event. The DE global optimization procedure was effective at determining the landslide parameters for the model with the minimum deviation from the measured seafloor. The lowest deviation from the measured bathymetry was obtained for the best-fitting parameters: a maximum landslide thickness of 301.2 m and a landslide time of 10.8 min. The landslide volume of 0.182 km3 estimated by the best-fitting parameters shows that the tsunami flow depth could have reached 3–10 m along the shore with a K value of 0.89, although the simulated flow depths were underestimated in comparison with the observation data. According to the waveforms, the general wave pattern was well reproduced at tide gauges during the event. A large number of objective function evaluations were necessary to locate the minimum with the DE procedure to fix the grid cell size to 20 m; this limited the accuracy of the obtained parameter values for the two-layer model. Moreover, considering the generalizations in the modeling of landslide movements, the impact landslide time and thickness must be carefully calculated to obtain a suitable accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have used the Orthopilot (Aesculap AG, Tuttlingen, Germany) computed tomography (CT)-free navigation system to ensure accurate and reproducible acetabular cup orientation. In this system, cup orientation is assessed with respect to bony configuration as deter-mined by palpation of the anatomical landmarks (the bilateral anterosuperior iliac spines and the upper margin of the pubic symphysis). In this study, intraoperative cup orientation as presented by the OrthoPilot navigation system was compared with the value obtained through postoperative radiological assessment using CT Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) data and Medical Image Processing, Analysis, and Visualization (MIPAV; National Institutes of Health, US Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, Maryland). Intra- and postoperative results obtained from 27 consecutive navigated total hip arthroplasties (THAs) were analyzed. For cup positioning, the desired inclination and anteversion angles were set within the 'safe zone' proposed by Lewinnek. In the intraoperative evaluation, the mean inclination angle as determined by the navigation system was 43.5° ± 2.17° (range, 39.9°-46.6°) after the final implantation. In contrast, the mean inclination angle determined by postoperative calculation using MIPAV was 44.9° ± 3.3° (range, 38.1 °-55.0°). A discrepancy of >5° was observed in only 1 hip. For the ante-version, the mean intra- and postoperative values were 11.1 ° ± 5.6° (range, 0°-17.8°) and 13.5° ± 5.9° (range, 5.1°-21 .6°), respectively. Again, a discrepancy of >5° was observed in 1 case. Mean differences between the intra- and postoperative values were 1.9° ± 1.9° and 2.6° ± 1.6° for inclination and anteversion, respectively. A good agreement between the intraoperative values presented by the navigation system and those in the postoperative CT evaluation was observed, and the validity of this navigation system was confirmed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]