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While much of the academic literature on spinouts focuses on new ventures launched by the ex-employees of incumbent firms within the same industry, recent research shows that spinouts may also enter a focal industry from "knowledge contexts" outside of the incumbent industry. In particular, recent studies show that spinouts may enter from both upstream and downstream industries related to a focal industry along the value chain. Such spinouts have been called user-industry and supplier-industry spinouts. In this article, evidence from existing studies is collected to provide an indication of the relevance of such spinouts across various industries. This survey also includes an analysis of industry studies in which user- and supplier-industry spinouts may have been present but were not identified as such by scholars due to a difference in focus. The paper then considers the evidence accumulated to date in order to explore the industry contexts in which these two types of spinouts appear and to develop propositions concerning differences in the entry timing and product/market strategies of these startups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New entrants and incumbent firms rely on new knowledge to innovate and compete in the market. One way to acquire new knowledge is through the recruitment of new employees from competitors, a phenomenon popularly known as "poaching." Digital labor platforms are widely used by firms for this aim. We argue that job titles represent the first and most visible public source of information about knowledge workers and thus play a key role in navigating the vast spectrum of competencies available in digital platforms. Our analyses of the career trajectories of 11,644 knowledge workers in the United States between 2004 and 2014 suggest that increases in the ambiguity of a job title claimed by an employee are negatively associated with the likelihood of the employee being hired by a new employer. This finding appears stronger in the case of transitions to incumbent firms rather than new entrants. In the concluding section of the paper, we take stock of the various analyses presented and reflect on the potential role of job titles in the strategic management of human capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The agri-food tech sector is touted for its potential to disrupt established industry. Yet research reveals that incumbent agribusinesses are buying their way into the sector through startup investments and acquisitions. Drawing from extensive qualitative research, we show that incumbent influence also shapes agri-food tech in more subtle and pervasive ways. Startups rely on incumbents' social and material infrastructure to achieve the rapid growth demanded by their venture capital funders. Incumbent influence, we argue, is ambient, continuous, and frequently indirect. It saturates the spaces where malleable startups take shape, influencing even those with whom incumbents have no direct contact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The predominant view in the reviewed literature on how the IOC dealt with the Spanish question during the Civil War is that a conservative, aristocratic IOC, ideologically close to the Spanish rebels, swiftly recognised the Francoist Spanish Olympic Committee (SOC) set up in November 1937 to the detriment of the Republican equivalent based in Barcelona; that is, the IOC took sides and somehow betrayed the legitimate Republican SOC. The IOC undeniably sympathised with the insurgents and empathised with the persecuted members of the Spanish Olympic movement. Yet at the same time, by officially recognising the SOC reconstituted in San Sebastián by the IOC's representatives in Spain, the IOC was fulfilling its duty in the legal sense, as according to their statutes, a national Olympic Committee was valid only if constituted or supported by the IOC delegates in the incumbent nation. Moreover, the Republican SOC was disbanded in July 1936. Both its president and its general secretary escaped abroad to avoid political persecution. The Spanish Olympic Movement, therefore, did not split into two branches during the Civil War; it simply disappeared from the Republican side, ignored by those in command, in contrast with the 'Olympic proactivism' of the Francoists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrating a contingency perspective with status-quo theory, this study investigates how to break the inertial use of incumbent payments to use mobile-payment services in South Korea. We surveyed 330 Korean respondents from March 2021 to May 2021, using a non-probability purposive and web-panel sampling method. Our hierarchical regression estimation results reveal that the status-quo inertia of incumbent transactional method negatively influences user behavior regarding mobile payment adoption. Moreover, from a contingency perspective, individual factors, including gender and age, and technology environmental factors, such as technology diversity, weaken the effect of status-quo inertia. Meanwhile, regulatory environmental factors, such as institutional inertia, strengthen status-quo inertia's effect on the intention to use mobile payment. More attention has been given to the questions of how and why leapfrogging from traditional transaction methods to mobile payment has not yet been replaced. In this context, our findings could provide answers for both academic and industry experts who have explored how to break inertia to adopt mobile payment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prabowo Subianto's victory in Indonesia's 2024 presidential elections was decisive, and it is widely accepted that incumbent President Joko Widodo's de facto endorsement of him played a significant role in this outcome. But the motivations of Widodo (commonly known as "Jokowi") for picking his former adversary as his heir, and the reasons for his determination to get Prabowo elected in a landslide, remain poorly understood. This article demonstrates that Jokowi selected Prabowo after other options had fallen through, and that he made his choice with full awareness of the risks and uncertainties involved. By implication, he also tolerated the danger a Prabowo presidency could pose to Indonesian democracy. Tempted by Prabowo's offer to make Jokowi's son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, his vice-presidential candidate, Jokowi went all-in and mobilized state resources to secure their triumph. Based on interviews with key actors, this article delivers a detailed picture of the factors that made Prabowo president-and that gave Jokowi few guarantees of continued influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Prior research on catch-up strategies often provides insights from the technology-related perspective and ignores some non-technological factors. Through the multi-case study of China's smartphone industry, we develop a theoretical framework explaining how latecomer firms catch up through diverse strategic choices. We identify two strategic paths that latecomer firms follow to catch up and surpass the incumbents. One path is to explore new business opportunities via deep market insights and then combine them with building up product technologies. Another path is from product technology build-up to market insights exploration. Firms following this path usually start with building up essential technologies and act as fast followers for new market insights. Then, as they continue developing their technological strengths, these firms devote efforts to improving their ability to capture new market insights. This study challenges the 'first imitation, then innovation model' discussed in the literature and shows that latecomer firms can pursue cutting-edge innovations in their early activities. The research also shows that, unlike previous studies, the technology build-up is not the only path to help latecomers catch up and challenge incumbent leaders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Enacting stringent climate policy has proven politically challenging, not least because of concentrated losses in fossil fuel-producing communities. "Just transition" strategies have been proposed to mitigate this distributional challenge. Yet, little is known about how such strategies affect voting behavior. Using a mixed-methods approach, we exploit a local climate policy in Spain—a "Just Transition Agreement" (JTA) to phase out coalmining, support affected workers, and invest in affected municipalities—which was negotiated by the incumbent Socialist Party (PSOE) government with affected unions and businesses shortly before a national election. A difference-in-differences study shows that PSOE's vote share in coalmining municipalities increased at the 2019 election relative to similar municipalities, implying that the JTA was electorally successful. Further statistical tests and elite interviews suggest that this electoral boost was driven by unions' support of the JTA. Our findings have implications for how parties can craft popular climate policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The literature on celebrity politics often asserts that celebrity politicians are good at fundraising. They are wealthy people in wealthy social networks, and this should give them a fundraising advantage compared to their noncelebrity opponents. Yet, this hypothesis has never been tested. Method: Fundraising data from 1964 to 2022 was collected from multiple sources. Results: This study finds that celebrity candidates are typically not able to out‐fundraise their opponents. Yet they perform remarkably well despite this disadvantage. Conclusions: Celebrities tend to win elections when they raise more money than their opponents, run in open‐seat contests or local elections. They tend to lose elections when they lose the fundraising battle, challenge incumbents, or seek federal offices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The online-to-offline (O2O) business mode has on-demand features to offer consumers instant fulfillment from a local store upon their online order. The O2O mode has attracted many more consumers recently. Using empirical evidence from a leading O2O platform in China, our study focuses on the market entry issue in the O2O context. Upon the new entrant entering the market, existing listed sellers implement a higher overall promotion to their consumers by enlarging the direct promotion extent but reducing the other types of promotions, including coupon, bundle, quantity, and gift promotions. However, the O2O platforms reduce the promotions level to the consumer orders from the existing listed sellers. The platform's and existing listed sellers' promotions increase consumers' purchase frequency but lower their purchase amount per order. The extent of these impacts depends on the geographic location of the new entrant. Our findings provide guidelines for the O2O platforms and listed providers to implement appropriate promotion strategies to attract consumers when considering the impact of certain new providers entering the O2O market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policies that promote the common good may be politically infeasible if legislators representing 'losing' constituencies are punished for failing to promote their district's welfare. We investigate how varying the local and aggregate returns to a policy affects voter support for their incumbent. In our first study, we find that an incumbent who favours a welfare-enhancing policy enjoys a discontinuous jump in support when their district moves from losing to at least breaking even, while the additional incremental political returns for the district doing better than breaking even are modest. This feature of voter response, which we replicate, has significant implications for legislative politics generally and, in particular, how to construct politically feasible social welfare-enhancing policies. In a second study, we investigate the robustness of this finding in a competitive environment in which a challenger can call attention to a legislator's absolute and relative performance in delivering resources to their district. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effect of state-level monitoring on municipal governance, focusing on outcomes in financial reporting quality, local corruption, political entrenchment, and municipal financial soundness. I exploit the staggered adoption of fiscal monitoring policies that entail a regular review of municipal financial reports for signs of fiscal distress. I find that introducing these monitoring policies is associated with an increase in the proxies for reporting quality, a decrease in the number of corruption convictions, and a reduction in re-election likelihood for incumbent politicians. Consistent with the purpose of the policies, my evidence shows that fiscal health ratios of municipalities improve after initiating state monitoring. Collectively, my results are consistent with state fiscal monitoring improving several important aspects of municipal governance. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text. JEL Classifications: G18; G38; H1; H11; H7; H83; M4. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an industry with homogeneous goods, this note compares the standard incumbent's strategic capacity choice versus the incumbent's pre‐emptive payment (profit) transfer (PPT) strategy (i.e., pre‐entry acquisition). It is shown that via the transfer option, the incumbent holds its monopoly position "dissuading" the potential competitor entry for a range of fixed costs larger than under strategic capacity. Moreover, in that range, at least one firm is better off under PPT, while the other is indifferent between PPT and capacity choice. That is, in contestable markets, the incumbent can keep its dominant position in an easier way than standard models predict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We note and correct a flaw in the analysis of Ferejohn (1986)'s seminal model of electoral accountability. In the original solution, it is supposedly optimal for the voter to impose a stationary path of performance targets on officeholders. We show that, in fact, stationary paths are suboptimal; the voter can do better by choosing a path of performance targets that become increasingly lenient over time, which extracts more effort from the politician earlier on. We explicitly solve for the optimal performance targets for a class of examples and discuss the substantive implications of our exercise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents an overview of the trajectories of lithography technology with a particular focus on technology lock-in. Based on the theory of technological evolution, the paper exploits the contribution of different knowledge sources. The results show that four phases of technological development characterise the evolution of lithography. Phases 2 and 3 from 2002 to 2011 are characterised by the persistence of particular standard technology and path dependence, suggesting the existence of technology lock-in. By highlighting the characteristics of technology lock-in and path dependence, we discuss the core technology gap between incumbents and latecomers. We find that the lithography industry was dominated by U.S., German, and Japanese core technologies in the early stages. However, knowledge diversity has gradually increased in recent years, with Korea and Taiwan contributing more to the current lithography technology, possibly breaking out path dependence. This study contributes to the existing literature on indicators and connotations of technological lock-in and path dependence. It provides insight into the window of opportunity for latecomers by identifying core lithography technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyses the organisational and individual drivers and barriers to the implementation of circular business models (CBM) by incumbents and start-ups in the workwear industry. It is based on a qualitative study of 15 organisations in the Swedish workwear industry. Most incumbents are found to have either long-life models with hybrid elements, such as repair, or access models, while circular start-ups have a larger variety of CBMs, although the most common is gap exploiter. Internal organisational barriers mostly differ between the two groups; however, external organisational barriers are more significant and common, such as the low price of new workwear, a lack of demand and a lack of supporting policies, for example, public procurement. Several organisational drivers are identified, such as opportunities to deliver customer value, textile and digital innovations and environmental concerns. Drivers and barriers are influenced by both type of CBM and type of company. Individual drivers and barriers, which are often overlooked in literature, are found to be important to CBM implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has had tremendous impacts on political, economic and social developments across the globe. Although some studies show that voters tend to hold incumbent parties accountable for managing the pandemic, the results of others suggest that the rally-round-the-flag strategy might be at plan. We contend that voters tend to hold the incumbent party accountable, even during an exogenous shock, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We hypothesize that more stringent government responses to tackle the pandemic and more COVID-19 casualties tend to decrease the electoral support for incumbent parties. Using original data from 67 national elections in 56 electoral democracies from mid-March 2020 to May 2022, the empirical results support our hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is expected that the number of elected female mayors in local government will increase globally, yet no major progress has been registered lately despite the increased focus on the topic. At the European level, no country exceeds 40% female mayors or other leaders of the municipal council (or equivalent), with the highest descriptive representation of 39.1% in Iceland. Following the 2020 elections in Romania, only around 5% of mayors were female with a strong over-representation of male mayors. The current study aims to analyze the male–female distribution of mayors, the degree of re-election, the relationship between the number of candidates and re-election of incumbents, and how these factors impact female political representation at the local level in Romania. Thus, we argue that a high degree of re-election of incumbents may be a barrier to women's access to the position of mayor. In addition, it is important to determine whether female incumbents are as successful as their male counterparts in being re-elected. While there is an extensive body of literature on incumbency that covers a range of topics, there is a gap in the literature regarding the proposed subject. The present research aims to fill the gap and contribute to a better understanding of the political representation of women in Eastern Europe. We utilized a dataset of Romanian elections from 2008 to 2020 to test our hypotheses. Our findings indicate that during the studied period, more than 95% of mayors were male, the re-election was a frequent occurrence in Romania with a percentage ranging from 70.82% (2008–2012) to 72% (2012–2016 and 2016–2020), and female incumbents were just as likely to be re-elected as their male counterparts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Danish Postal incumbent's, Post Danmark, struggle to acclimatize to a market without special rights has yielded epic competition cases such as Post Danmark I and Post Danmark II. While it is tempting to label Post Danmark as a serial infringer, it is fundamentally a company that was slow in accepting that letter mail presented a dying business case and viewed other services as being merely and capable of being priced accordingly. The extreme fall in letter volumes has made this position untenable, explaining the company's financial collapse and persistent clashes with competition law. Studies of Post Danmark's 'troublesome' relationship with competition law offer insights into the treatment of multi-product companies under competition law the need to police their allocation of costs and the consequences of failing in this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As incumbents strive to collaborate with start-ups in the pursuit of cutting-edge digital solutions, the complexities posed by disparate partners and their innovative endeavours often lead to intricate tensions. Our research underscores the critical role of innovation intermediaries in enabling a successful digital co-creation, yet a deeper understanding of this novel and evolving context is required. Through a comprehensive study of two innovation intermediaries, five incumbent companies, and eleven start-ups, we shed light on how intermediaries can effectively mitigate the hard-to-manage tensions that emerge. Our analysis uncovers three primary tensions: incompatible digital co-creation cultures, divergent digital innovation operations, and misaligned technical capabilities. We further propose a four-phase process for innovation intermediation, including the establishment of digital co-creation foundations, catalysing digital innovation projects, orchestrating the co-creation process, and scaling the resulting outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explains the survival of the AKP in Turkey's late stage of autocratization (2017-present) through its strategy of shifting the primary drivers of competition from individual parties to pre-electoral alliances. Confronted with a decline in popular support in 2015 June elections, the article argues that the AKP created uneven patterns of competition via the system of pre-electoral alliances so that it could institutionalize a 'Rikerian offense' on the salient Turkish-Kurdish cleavage and establish an authoritarian power-sharing mechanism with its former challenger, the Turkish nationalist MHP. To illustrate the shift toward uneven patterns of electoral competition via such incumbent strategies, the article conducts a two-part analysis: It first examines the landscape of competition among parties (2002-2015) and second, evaluates competition among both parties and alliances (2018-2023) at the national and district levels in Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Turkish economy presented a complicated picture ahead of the 2023 election, with significant currency depreciation and soaring inflation yet robust growth and stable employment levels. How did voters' economic perceptions shape election results in such a context? Drawing on Turkish Election Study surveys, this study reaches two main conclusions. First, while the average evaluation of the economy in the electorate was quite poor, there is a sharp divergence across incumbent supporters and others: The incumbent Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi – AKP) supporters' evaluations have changed little since the previous election in 2018, yet those of other voters have deteriorated significantly. Second, the opposition seems to have failed in convincing large parts of the electorate that they would manage the economy better than Erdoğan. Overall, economic voting appears to have worked as expected, and the unwavering economic evaluations of likely AKP voters and the perceived incompetence of the opposition seem to have helped Erdoğan to win another term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Political order following rebel victory in civil wars has seen remarkable variation. While some rebellions transform their victories into durable regimes, others do not. This article develops a typological framework to assess the ability, and inability, of victorious rebellions to capture the state after overthrowing incumbents, with a focus on Africa. We argue that these outcomes - state capture, failed state capture, or mixed - depend on two key dimensions of political and military centralization before victory: (1) the distribution of power between rebel organizations participating in the civil war and (2) the communal structure within them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Circular economy (CE) has emerged as a sustainable alternative to the current "take, make, waste" linear approach. Although prior studies have highlighted the salience of collaborative efforts between start‐ups and incumbents, little is known about the mechanisms behind collaboration in a CE context. This study enhances our understanding of the topic by drawing on six cases of circular start‐ups (CSUs) operating in the United Kingdom's business‐to‐business market and investigating the mechanisms by which start‐ups collaborate with incumbents. Using the Context, Intervention, Mechanism, Outcome framework, the paper's findings demonstrate that CE does not necessitate high‐risk and expensive changes and show that CSUs can collaborate with incumbents in low‐risk ways by outsourcing and developing service contracts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Digitalization can help suppliers cut ties with their intermediaries and offer products directly to consumers. Such a digital disintermediation strategy likely affects both digital and non-digital incumbents in ways difficult to predict by current marketing theory. In our empirical investigation of digital disintermediation in the multibillion-dollar filmed home entertainment industry, we draw on consumers' viewing behaviors before and after the launch of the streaming service Disney+. The findings show that access to Disney+ substantially increased the streaming category in the short run, accelerating the demise of non-digital linear television. However, only the new digital service benefited, while streaming incumbents suffered negative outcomes, despite public claims to the contrary. In addition to foreshadowing Netflix's subsequent difficulties in defending its leadership position, these findings offer suppliers successful ways to liberate themselves from powerful intermediaries and help incumbents brace for the competitive upheavals that a digital disintermediation strategy is likely to trigger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates data-driven business model innovation (DDBMI) for incumbent manufacturers, underscoring its importance in various strategic and managerial contexts. Employing topic modeling, the study identifies nine key topics of DDBMI. Through qualitative thematic synthesis, these topics are further refined, interpreted, and categorized into three levels: Enablers, value creators, and outcomes. This categorization aims to assess incumbent manufacturers' preparedness for DDBMI. Additionally, a knowledge framework is developed based on the identified nine key topics of DDBMI to aid incumbent manufacturers in enhancing their understanding of DDBMI, thereby facilitating the practical application and interpretation of data-driven approaches to business model innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyzes the conditions under which major infrastructural investments generate electoral returns. It addresses when and how the constraints imposed by myopic voters under democracy can be overcome. We argue that sustained policy spillovers are critical to broadening the pool of beneficiaries and yielding significant returns to the incumbent in the medium to long run. We make this case by analyzing Luz para Todos (LPT)—a large-scale rural electrification scheme implemented in Brazil by the Workers' Party (PT). Leveraging the LPT's quasi-experimental allocation, we document its positive and persistent impact on the PT's vote support several years after the program started running. We then illustrate the mechanism of policy spillovers by showing the impact of the LPT on the provision of education in targeted areas. Our findings suggest that infrastructure policies are more likely to generate electoral returns when the policy provision entails spillover effects through other policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article shows that larger legislatures reduce the electoral power of incumbent parties in the executive. The electoral effects of legislature size have been largely overlooked by a literature that emphasizes its impact on policies. I estimate the effects of municipal council size on the performance of the local incumbent party in gubernatorial, presidential, and mayoral races in Brazil. The regression discontinuity design exploits variation from a law that set nonlinear council size caps after 2012. In a nutshell, every additional seat triggers a 5 percentage point vote loss for the candidates backed by the mayor's party. Additional evidence suggests that these losses are a consequence of a breakdown in the political brokerage relationships that often characterize developing democracies: in Brazil, mayors exchange patronage for the councilors' electoral support. Larger councils raise this transaction cost for mayors, more so when the council and mayor have unaligned electoral incentives at the state/national levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do politicians' track records and campaign messaging interact and affect voters' welfare? We analyze this question theoretically and experimentally. In the theoretical model, which we implement in the experiment, politicians choose how much of an economy's resources to allocate to the citizenry—keeping the remainder for themselves—and then face reelection against a challenger. Both incumbents and challengers have private information about their own quality that determines the economy's level of resources. We vary whether candidates can send campaign messages and the level of variability in candidates' quality. We observe that both higher‐quality variability and allowing campaigning benefit citizens by allowing them to better select and hold accountable higher‐quality officials. Also, when incumbents have performed poorly or when quality variability is high, challengers' negative campaigning (criticizing the incumbent) increases and incumbents' positive campaigning (emphasizing their own strengths) decreases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What are the political consequences of rising household debt in the context of fiscal austerity? I argue that cuts in welfare benefits privatize social obligations as voters address ensuing financial shortfalls by borrowing money. Debt re‐commodifies individuals and shifts their electoral support from incumbents to opposition and anti‐establishment parties by provoking feelings of political neglect, economic vulnerability, and strong emotional responses. I examine this argument by leveraging spatial and temporal variation in the rollout of Universal Credit (UC), a large‐scale welfare reform in the United Kingdom. Using fine‐grained administrative data on unsecured debt, I demonstrate that fiscal austerity generated an increase in indebtedness, which lowered support for the incumbent Conservatives and strengthened support for Labour and the UK Independence Party (UKIP). I then use individual‐level survey data to explore the mechanisms that link debt and political behavior. The results suggest that rising indebtedness increases the political costs of welfare retrenchment and creates new political cleavages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advancements in digital technology necessitate a shift from traditional linear buyer-supplier value chains to a network-centric approach facilitated by digital platforms. Despite digital platforms being a dominant model for transformation, limited research has explored the enablers for incumbent pipeline firms to embrace platformization. To address this gap, this study reviews existing literature on digital transformation, identifying nine enablers for digital platformization: changing client behavior, information technology (IT) capabilities development, structural efficiencies, disruptive competitive forces, scope advantages, economic triggers, disruptive third-party technology, creation of autonomous corporate structures, and regulatory compliance. Case studies of platformization in diverse industries are analyzed using the modified total interpretive structural modeling (m-TISM) approach, resulting in a hierarchical model with five levels. This model delineates interrelationships among trigger events, external enablers, internal organizational enablers, process enablers, and outcome drivers. Furthermore, the study highlights that the creation and extraction of value from digital platforms are operationalized through e-business strategies, contributing insights to e-business literature by discussing the implications of these enablers on dimensions such as commerce, collaboration, communication, connection, and computing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an analytical review of the literature on the role of technology cycle time (TCT) in the catching-up process of latecomers at the firm, sectoral, and national levels. At the national level, latecomer economies follow a detour that consists of economic growth through specialization in short-TCT sectors during the catching-up phase, followed by a shift to long-TCT sectors in the post-catching-up phase. The paper then discusses the double-edged nature of TCT at the sectoral level, such that short TCT can either be a window of opportunity associated with the rapid obsolescence of existing technologies and thus low entry barriers, or another source of difficulty associated with the truncation of learning from existing technologies. Only latecomers with a certain absorptive capacity can benefit from short TCT as a window of opportunity. Finally, at the firm level, this paper discusses the issue of possible convergence in the behavior of catching-up firms towards those of mature firms in advanced economies. At all three levels, the keywords are detours and convergence. Given the barriers to entry in long-TCT sectors, latecomers pursue a strategy of detouring into short-TCT sectors. That is, instead of trying to emulate incumbents by entering long-TCT sectors, latecomers take the opposite route. Subsequently, as latecomers improve their capabilities over time, they shift their specialization from short to long TCT sectors, thereby achieving convergence in behavior and strategy at the firm, sectoral, and national levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accountability relationship between voters and elected members of Congress (MCs) hinges on the potential for citizens to learn about legislator behaviour. In an era of declining local newspapers, local television coverage of MCs potentially fulfils this important role. However, few studies have comprehensively examined the determinants of contemporary MC coverage by local television news broadcasts. In this paper, we leverage a vast database of local television news broadcast transcripts spanning two years to identify which factors explain MC coverage. We find that MCs receive little coverage outside the general election campaign season. Media market and campaign-specific factors are associated with more exposure when coverage occurs. Finally, we find that within competitive elections, incumbents receive only a marginal advantage in coverage. These findings provide a springboard to explore further questions regarding Congress, local media, and political accountability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Members of some legislatures enjoy long political careers, whereas elsewhere turnover is rampant. This variation is consequential since high-incumbency assemblies may facilitate legislative expertise at the expense of social representation. We explore cross-national differences in re-election (incumbency) rates by identifying 'supply' conditions such as legislative resources that benefit incumbents as well as 'demand' conditions such as political corruption that affect voters' willingness to re-elect incumbents. We hypothesize that legislative perquisites help incumbents win re-election, but only if there is relatively high public confidence in politics, as reflected in low corruption levels. We tested our argument using OLS and instrumental variable regression and new global data on sixty-eight democracies (2000–18) covering 288 elections and over 55,000 legislators. We found that legislative resources help incumbents get re-elected only under relatively low levels of political corruption. In contrast, under severe corruption, such resources can depress re-election rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Technological discontinuities create new submarkets in existing industries, which may favor incumbents or provide opportunities to new entrants. Complementing prior research on the emergence of integrative submarkets that leave the industry's customer base unchanged, we introduce the notion of additive submarkets, which are characterized by enlarging the focal industry's customer base and its heterogeneity. Our empirical analysis focuses on how the emergence of an additive submarket after a competence-destroying technological discontinuity affected entry and firm survival in the historical German farm tractor industry. Using propensity score-weighted hazard models to control for the endogeneity of entry timing, we find that diversifying entrants from customer-related industries were more likely to enter and survive after the submarket emerged. We develop a conceptual framework to structure the implications for entry and survival of various types of entrants when technological discontinuities create new integrative or additive submarkets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do voters react to an ongoing natural threat? Do voters sanction or reward incumbents even when incumbents cannot be held accountable because an unforeseeable natural disaster is unfolding? We address this question by investigating voters' reactions to the early spread of COVID-19 in the 2020 French municipal elections. Using a novel, fine-grained measure of the circulation of the virus based on excess-mortality data, we find that support for incumbents increased in areas that were particularly hard hit by the virus. Incumbents from both left and right gained votes in areas more strongly affected by COVID-19. We provide suggestive evidence for two mechanisms that can explain our findings: an emotional channel related to feelings of fear and anxiety, and a prospective-voting channel, related to the ability of incumbents to act more swiftly against the diffusion of the virus than challengers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Democratic backsliding by incumbents is one of the most prevalent forms of backsliding in recent global trends of democratic erosion. Understanding the attitude of voters toward backsliding incumbents is crucial because popular support is the basis of legitimacy for these incumbents. This article studies voter attitudes in the Philippines, where democracy was subverted by the incumbent president, Rodrigo Duterte, who served from 2016 to 2022. Specifically, we examine the validity of the claim that Filipino voters are acquiring a "taste for illiberal rule" made by some scholars. First, we analyzed the survey data regarding the support for various types of political systems, where part of the data comes from our originally commissioned survey at the Social Weather Stations. Second, we explored Pulse Asia's longitudinal survey data on martial-rule support. Our investigation of these survey data did not find substantive support for the "taste for illiberal rule" proposition. Further, we argue that Filipino voters are contingent supporters of illiberal politics while supporting the procedural principles of democracy at the baseline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United Nations climate summits—Conferences of the Parties, or COPs—have emerged as important sites to confront fossil fuel incumbents. While new research indicates that least developed countries (LDCs) are challenging incumbents at COPs by calling upon them to phase out fossil fuel, there is limited research on how the coalition of LDCs is strategizing to confront incumbents and their capacity to do so. I address this gap by drawing on 24 interviews with LDCs' negotiators and observers. Informed by the strategic power perspective and the neo-Gramscian account of power, it identifies three central dynamics in how LDCs contest fossil fuel incumbents. First, negotiators undertake "soft" strategies at negotiations to call upon incumbents to reduce fossil fuel consumption, while observers pursue "hard" tactics at side events to press incumbents to phase out production. Second, the coalition is divided between those countries focused on reducing fossil fuel consumption versus those emphasizing the need for a production phase-out. This split creates disagreement, contestation, and division in the coalition. Finally, the coalition's capacity to confront incumbents is restrained by three obstacles: fragile strategies, varied interests and fragmentation in the coalition and the G77+ China, and interstate relations between LDCs and incumbents shaped by political economic factors and colonial legacy. The LDCs' coalition is central to advancing supply-side climate policy in international climate negotiations. Overcoming these divisions and barriers would enhance the coalition's capacity to exert pressure on incumbents, particularly major fossil fuel-producing states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under what conditions do incumbents support, tolerate, or try to rein in armed groups within their borders? The paper argues that incumbents strategize toward armed groups in ways that help them manage the ruling coalition and remain in power. I find that incumbents support armed groups in provinces where provincial politicians have defected from the ruling coalition to opposition parties, recruiting armed groups to deliver the province in national elections with fraud and violence and punish elite defectors. Where incumbents are not fighting to keep provinces in the ruling coalition, I show that they tolerate non-dissident groups that enjoy social contracts with local communities, and try to contain their dissident counterparts. Incumbents are likely to repress predatory armed groups, dissident and non-dissident alike. Doing so helps boost elite and mass support for incumbents and project central government power into the province. The argument was inductively built with comparative case studies from Nigeria and then evaluated in Kenya. The findings contribute to an important research agenda on government-armed group relationships and carry implications for security sector aid and reform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does austerity influence incumbent support? Existing studies struggle with conceptualizing the evolution of austerity's impact over time, estimating a causal effect, and analysing the reactions of different voters. This study theorizes that the effect of austerity on electoral preferences is not immediate, but gradual, as voters find out about the measures' consequences via the media. It leverages a survey in the field at the time of the austerity announcement in Romania in 2010, additional survey data collected immediately after this event and comprehensive daily media coverage to show that austerity measures do not have an immediate impact on incumbent support, anticipated turnout and expressing a vote preference. Instead, there is a gradual effect that is associated with increased media attention to budgetary cuts. This natural experiment allows the estimation of the immediate causal effect of austerity on electoral intentions. Difference‐in‐differences (DID) models show that the announcement triggered a massive loss of support for the incumbent among those who had voted for the party in power only a few months before. Austerity also led to the demobilization of the governing party's supporters. There is no evidence that those most directly affected by the spending cuts are more likely to punish the incumbent party. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior studies have documented incumbency advantage for electoral candidates. A largely unrelated strand of literature has shown that perceived competence of candidates, as inferred from their physical appearance, also predicts their electoral success. We draw upon the framework of statistical discrimination and the dual‐system theory of human cognition to understand the relationship between a political candidate's vote share, physical appearance, and incumbency status. Voters possess relatively richer information about incumbents compared to challengers. Perceived competence of candidates, as inferred from their physical appearance, is therefore expected to have a relatively weaker influence on voters' decisions to vote for incumbents. Data from Australian state elections support this prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A change of government or minister constitutes a stress test for the relationship between ministers and bureaucrats. The new political masters may question the loyalty of incumbent bureaucrats and seek to replace them. However, the relationship between political changes and administrative turnover is poorly understood in meritocratic systems. This article analyses how changes of either government or minister affect the turnover of permanent secretaries in Denmark and Norway (1970–2020). Whereas ministers are completely reliant on career bureaucrats in pure meritocratic systems, they are supported by political appointees in hybrid meritocratic systems. The article investigates whether the effect of political changes on administrative turnover is mediated by the presence or absence of political appointees. Changes of government increase the risk of administrative turnover in Norway (hybrid system), but there are no such effects in Denmark (pure system), suggesting that political appointees potentially undermine the permanence of career bureaucrats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although Airbnb debuted in 2008, incumbent lodging firms did not fully recognize it as a legitimate competitor for several years. However, as Airbnb made inroads into the accommodation business, hotel firms and their investors started to take notice and to legitimize its disruptive role. In this paper, we investigate investors' awareness of the disruptor Airbnb as a competitor of incumbent lodging firms. Specifically, we assess the effect of awareness on incumbent hotel management and hotel property owner firms. Employing an event study methodology, our analysis finds that Airbnb performance milestones negatively affect incumbents' market value. This research contributes to our understanding of the role played by investors and financial analysts in shaping competitive markets by legitimizing an industry disruptor and by spurring competitive action among incumbent firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of the incumbent state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) on the births of new private‐owned enterprises (POEs) in China is a central concern for the government and society. In this paper, we apply agglomeration theories to distinguish the linkages between SOEs and POEs. Using China's 2008 economic census, the 2007 Input‐Output Table, and the 2005 population census, we measure the formation of new POEs at the city‐industry level, and the agglomeration forces of distance proximity to inputs, outputs, labor, and technology. More explicitly, we measure the extent to which local SOEs provide relevant inputs, consume outputs, employ similar workers, and use similar technology. Our findings indicate that overall, incumbent SOEs hinder the formation of new POEs. For manufacturing, the entry of new POEs is significantly lower in places where more upstream SOEs are concentrated. For services, the entry of new POEs is significantly lower in places where more upstream and downstream SOEs are concentrated. However, the agglomeration effects from the incumbent POEs are either insignificant or significantly positive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coordination on mass protest plays an important disciplining role in ensuring compliance with electoral rules, with elections serving as a public signal of the incumbent's popularity. But the link between the informativeness of the election and the enforceability of electoral rules hinges crucially on the veracity of the electoral process. We model how doubt about electoral integrity influences compliance with electoral rules. Our analysis explains why electoral rules in advanced democracies are less resilient, and incumbents less willing to step aside, than suggested by the standard model of electoral turnover. We clarify how incumbent behaviour responds to changes in the cost of protest, and external overtures that make stepping down more attractive. Our findings contribute to the debate on the role of equilibrium multiplicity in models of mass uprisings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on two-country scenarios (entrants vs. incumbents), this paper employs the synthetic control method to quantify the macroeconomic effects of the European Union (EU) enlargement, and examines whether these effects varied before, during, and after economic crises. We find that enlargement effects are very complex, and significantly varied across economic cycles and the country groups. In particular, EU enlargement induced large and positive effects on the entrants which were merely stifled in the wake of the financial crisis and the subsequent euro crisis. In the interim, the 2004 enlargement triggered an instantaneous negative shock on the incumbents which was further exacerbated by the crises. Subsequently, the entrants recovered beyond their pre-crises gains, registering approximately 14 % higher per capita incomes by 2019, with Poland emerging as a clear winner. Meanwhile, incumbents' per capita incomes have, on average, declined by approximately 9 %. While our findings largely support the notion that the entrants are en route to catching up with their incumbent counterparts, a formal β-convergence analysis exploiting the observed and synthetic data intuitively confirms that EU integration reduces the half-life by 50 %. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]