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In contemporary healthcare, effective risk stratification in the general population is vital amidst rising chronic disease rates and an ageing demographic. Deceleration Capacity of the heart rate (DC), derived from 24-hour Holter electrocardiograms, holds promise in risk stratification for cardiac patients. However, the potential of short-term electrocardiograms of five minutes duration for population screening has not been fully explored. Our study aims to investigate the utility of Deceleration Capacity derived from short-term electrocardiograms as a scalable, fully-automated screening tool for predicting long-term mortality risk in the general population. Within a cohort of a representative population-based survey in Germany (KORA-KMC-study), 823 participants with sinus rhythm aged 27 to 76 years at enrollment (females 47.4%) were followed for a median of 13.4 years (IQR 13.1–13.6). All-cause mortality was defined as the primary endpoint and observed in 159 participants. Deceleration Capacity was calculated from 5-minute 12-lead electrocardiograms by a fully automated approach. Participants were divided into three predefined risk categories: DCcategory0 – low-risk (> 4.5ms); DCcategory1 – intermediate-risk (2.5-4.5ms); and DCcategory2 – high-risk (≤ 2.5ms). More than two-thirds of the participants (n = 564, 68.5%) fell into DCcategory0, about one-fifth (n = 168, 20.4%) into DCcategory1, and about one-tenth (n = 91, 11.1%) into DCcategory2. Estimated 13-years mortality in the risk groups was 16.7%, 23.5%, and 49.1%, respectively (p < 0.001). Adjusting for age, life-style-related risk factors, and comorbidities, increased mortality risk was observed for DCcategory2 (HR 2.34, 95%-CI 1.56–3.50). Deceleration Capacity, derived automatically from brief 5-minute electrocardiogram recordings, emerges as a robust, feasible, and independent predictor of long-term mortality risk in the general population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluated the association between pediatric multiple sclerosis and vaccinations within 5 years before diagnosis using German ambulatory claims data. Children with multiple sclerosis (n = 346) aged 9–17 were analyzed with logistic and Poisson regression. Control groups included children with Crohn's disease, psoriasis, and no autoimmune diseases. The results indicated a negative association between vaccinations and pediatric multiple sclerosis, with no significant risk identified. This negative relationship was consistent in sensitivity and clinically isolated syndrome analyses. Overall, the study's findings do not support the hypothesis that vaccination is a risk factor for pediatric multiple sclerosis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Background and Aim: Patients with liver cirrhosis often face a grave threat from infected ascites (IA). However, a well‐established prognostic model for this complication has not been established in routine clinical practice. Therefore, we aimed to assess mortality risk in patients with liver cirrhosis and IA. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study across three tertiary hospitals, enrolling 534 adult patients with cirrhotic liver and IA, comprising 465 with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), 34 with bacterascites (BA), and 35 with secondary peritonitis (SP). To determine the attributable mortality risk linked to IA, these patients were matched with 122 patients with hydropic decompensated liver cirrhosis but without IA. Clinical, laboratory, and microbiological parameters were assessed for their relation to mortality using univariable analyses and a multivariable random forest model (RFM). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression model was used to establish an easy‐to‐use mortality prediction score. Results: The in‐hospital mortality risk was highest for SP (39.0%), followed by SBP (26.0%) and BA (25.0%). Besides illness severity markers, microbiological parameters, such as Candida spp., were identified as the most significant indicators for mortality. The Lasso model determined 15 parameters with corresponding scores, yielding good discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve = 0.89). Counting from 0 to 83, scores of 20, 40, 60, and 80 corresponded to in‐hospital mortalities of 3.3%, 30.8%, 85.2%, and 98.7%, respectively. Conclusion: We developed a promising mortality prediction score for IA, highlighting the importance of microbiological parameters in conjunction with illness severity for assessing patient outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To report the prospective long-term outcome data of patients whose chemotherapy decision was guided by the EndoPredict test. Methods: Patients with hormone receptor-positive HER2-negative early breast cancer with 0–3 positive lymph nodes were enrolled. The EndoPredict test was carried out on all tumor samples. Treatment compliance, local recurrence, distant metastases, and survival were evaluated. Associations of EPclin risk stratification with 5-year disease-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival were evaluated by time-to-event analysis. Results: 368 consecutive patients were included in the analysis. Median follow-up was 8.2 years. EndoPredict allocated 238 (65%) in the low-risk and 130 (35%) patients in the high-risk group. Risk for disease recurrence or death in EPclin high-risk patients was twofold higher than in EPclin low-risk patients (hazard ratio [HR] 2.08; 95% CI 1.26–3.44; p = 0.004). EPclin low-risk patients had a 5-year disease-free survival of 95.3% (95% CI 92.6–98.0%). EPclin high-risk patients were at higher risk of developing distant metastases or death (HR 2.21; 95% CI 1.27–3.88; p = 0.005). EPclin high-risk patients who underwent chemotherapy had a 5-year DFS of 89.1% (95% CI 82.7–96.1%) in contrast to high-risk patients without chemotherapy (68.9%; 95% CI 56.2–84.5%; HR 0.46; 95% CI 0.23–0.95; p = 0.036). EPclin high-risk patients were at higher risk of experiencing distant metastases or death than EPclin low-risk patients regardless of menopausal status (premenopausal: HR 3.55; 95% CI 1.17–12.32; p = 0.025; postmenopausal: HR 1.92; 95% CI 0.99–3.7; p = 0.054). Conclusion: EndoPredict can guide decisions on adjuvant chemotherapy in early luminal breast cancer. EndoPredict risk stratification is also applicable in premenopausal women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Long-lasting symptoms with a possible relation to psychosomatic comorbidity have been described following COVID-19. However, data is sparse in general practice. The trial's objective was to investigate the time-dependent frequency of disease symptoms and relation to psychosomatic comorbidity and daily life impairment (DLI). Methods: Comparative cohort study of patients reporting a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and uninfected controls in general practice. Participants were recruited in 14 general practices in the greater Munich area. Data collection was questionnaire based with a 12 months follow-up. Descriptive statistics, multivariable regression and bivariate correlations were used for analysis. Results: A total of n = 204 cases infected up to 42 months ago (n = 141 Omicron, n = 63 earlier variants), and n = 119 controls were included. Disease symptoms were substantially more prevalent in cases (55–79% vs. 43% within one year of infection). This difference also appeared in the multivariable analysis adjusting for socio-demographics and psychosomatic comorbidity with odds ratios (OR) of 4.15 (p < 0.001) and 3.51 (p = 0.054) for the cohorts with Omicron or earlier variants infection (vs. controls), respectively. It was persistent with earlier variants (OR 1.00 per month, p = 0.903), while a decreasing trend was observed for Omicron (OR 0.89 per month, p < 0.001). DLI was especially correlated with fatigue (r = 0.628). Conclusion: DLI, psychosomatic comorbidity and independently increased disease symptoms require holistic treatment of the patient in general practice according to the bio-psycho-social model. A key role in restoring the daily life capability may be attributed to the symptom fatigue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bedside teaching (BST) is a core element of medical education. In light of a reported decrease in BST, evidence on how to use BST time most efficiently should be developed. Given that little research into the tangible quality characteristics of good BST has been reported, we investigated the influence of various teacher and structural characteristics on the perceived quality of BST. We filmed and coded 36 BSTs involving 24 lecturers and 259 students. Structural characteristics of interest were: number of students and patients, overall duration, and the proportion of clinical examination. Lecturer questionnaires provided insight into teaching experience and intrinsic motivation, and student evaluations assessed the quality of BSTs in three dimensions. Correlations are reported using the Pearson r and a linear mixed model (LMM). The intrinsic motivation of lecturers was significantly positively correlated with perceived quality, but their experience was only weakly so correlated. In the LMM, a significant association was observed for the quality dimension of clinical teaching with the number of patients and the proportion of time spent on clinical examination. Based on our findings, we recommend including multiple patients in BSTs, and providing substantial opportunities for clinical examination. Regarding lecturers, motivation matters more than experience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We define teacher wait time (TWT) as a pause between a teacher question and the following response given by a student. TWT is valuable because it gives students time to activate prior knowledge and reflect on possible answers to teacher questions. We seek to gain initial insights into the phenomenon of TWT in medical education and give commensurate recommendations to clinical teachers. Methods: We observed n = 719 teacher questions followed by wait time. These were video-recorded in 29 case-based seminars in undergraduate medical education in the areas of surgery and internal medicine. The seminars were taught by 19 different clinical teachers. The videos were coded with satisfactory reliability. Time-to-event data analysis was used to explore TWT overall and independently of question types. Results: In our sample of case-based seminars, about 10% of all teacher questions were followed by TWT. While the median duration of TWT was 4.41 s, we observed large variation between different teachers (median between 2.88 and 10.96 s). Based on our results, we recommend that clinical teachers wait for at least five, but not longer than 10–12 s after initial questions. For follow-up and reproduction questions, we recommend shorter wait times of 5–8 s. Conclusions: The present study provides insights into the frequency and duration of TWT and its dependence on prior questions in case-based seminars. Our results provide clinical teachers with guidance on how to use TWT as an easily accessible tool that gives students time to reflect on and respond to teacher questions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Rho-kinase (ROCK) inhibitor Fasudil has shown symptomatic and disease-modifying effects in Parkinson’s disease (PD) models in vitro and in vivo. In Japan, Fasudil has been approved for the treatment of subarachnoid haemorrhage since 1995 and shows a favourable safety profile. Objectives/design: To investigate the safety, tolerability, and symptomatic efficacy of ROCK-inhibitor Fasudil in comparison to placebo in a randomized, national, multicenter, double-blind phase IIa study in patients with PD. Methods/analysis: We plan to include 75 patients with at least ‘probable’ PD (MDS criteria), Hoehn and Yahr stages 1–3, and age 30–80  years in 13 German study sites. Patients must be non-fluctuating and their response to PD medication must have been stable for 6  weeks. Patients will be randomly allocated to treatment with the oral investigational medicinal product (IMP) containing either Fasudil in two dosages, or placebo, for a total of 22  days. As primary analysis, non-inferiority of low/high dose of Fasudil on the combined endpoint consisting of occurrence of intolerance and/or treatment-related serious adverse events (SAEs) over 22  days will be assessed in a sequential order, starting with the lower dose. Secondary endpoints will include tolerability alone over 22  days and occurrence of treatment-related SAEs (SARs) over 22 and 50  days and will be compared on group level. Additional secondary endpoints include efficacy on motor and non-motor symptoms, measured on established scales, and will be assessed at several timepoints. Biomaterial will be collected to determine pharmacokinetics of Fasudil and its active metabolite, and to evaluate biomarkers of neurodegeneration. Ethics/registration/discussion: After positive evaluation by the competent authority and the ethics committee, patient recruitment started in the 3rd quarter of 2023. ROCK-PD is registered with Eudra-CT (2021-003879-34) and clinicaltrials.gov (NCT05931575). Results of this trial can pave way for conducting extended-duration studies assessing both symptomatic efficacy and diseasemodifying properties of Fasudil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Based on two diagnostic accuracy studies in high-prevalence settings, two distinctly different combinations of cut-off values have been recommended to identify persons at risk for somatic symptom disorder (SSD) with the combination of the Patient-Health Questionnaire-15 (PHQ-15) and the Somatic Symptom Disorder--B Criteria Scale (SSD-12). We investigated whether the reported sensitivity and specificity of both recommended cut-off combinations are transferable to primary care. Methods: In a cross-sectional study, 420 unselected adult primary care patients completed PHQ-15 and SSD-12. Patients scoring ≥9 and ≥ 23 (recommended cut-off combination #1) or ≥ 8 and ≥ 13 (recommended cut-off combination #2) were considered test-positive for SSD, respectively. To assess the validity of the reported sensitivity and specificity in different low- to high-prevalence settings, we compared correspondingly expected proportions of test positives to the proportion observed in our sample. Results: Based on combination #1, 38 participants (9%) were found to be test positive, far fewer than expected, based on the reported values for sensitivity and specificity (expected minimum frequency 30% with a true prevalence ≥1%). This can only be explained by a lower sensitivity and higher specificity in primary care. For combination #2, 98 participants (23%) were test positive, a finding consistent with a true prevalence of SSD of 15% or lower. Discussion: Our analyzes strongly suggest that the sensitivity and specificity estimates reported for combination #1 are not applicable to unselected primary care patients and that the cut-off for the SSD (≥23) is too strict. Cut-off combination #2 seems more applicable but still needs to be tested in studies that compare screening findings by questionnaires with validated diagnostic interviews as reference standards in primary care populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite advances in coronary revascularization and in heart failure management, myocardial infarction survivors remain at substantially increased mortality risk. Precise risk assessment and risk‐adapted follow‐up care are crucial to improve their outcomes. Recently, the fragmented QRS complex, i.e. the presence of additional spikes within the QRS complexes on a 12‐lead electrocardiogram, has been discussed as a potential non‐invasive risk predictor in cardiac patients. Hypothesis: The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic meaning of the fragmented QRS complex in myocardial infarction survivors. Methods: 609 patients with narrow QRS complexes <120 ms were included in a prospective cohort study while hospitalized for myocardial infarction and followed for 5 years. Results: The prevalence of the fragmented QRS complex in these patients amounted to 46.8% (285 patients). These patients had no increased hazard of all‐cause death (HR 0.84, 95%–CI 0.45–1.57, p = 0.582) with a mortality rate of 6.0% compared to 7.1% in patients without QRS fragmentations. Furthermore, the risks of cardiac death (HR 1.28, 95%–CI 0.49–3.31, p = 0.613) and of non‐cardiac death (HR 0.6, 95%–CI 0.26–1.43, p = 0.25) were not significantly different in patients with QRS fragmentations. However, patients with QRS fragmentations had increased serum creatine kinase concentrations (1438U/l vs. 1160U/l, p = 0.039) and reduced left ventricular ejection fractions (52% vs. 54%, p = 0.011). Conclusions: The hypothesis that QRS fragmentation might be a prognostic parameter in survivors of myocardial infarction was not confirmed. But those with QRS fragmentation had larger myocardial infarctions, as measured by creatine kinase and left ventricular ejection fraction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non-linear regression modeling is common in epidemiology for prediction purposes or estimating relationships between predictor and response variables. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression is one such method, for example, highly relevant to Cox proportional hazard regression model analysis. RCS regression uses third-order polynomials joined at knot points to model non-linear relationships. The standard approach is to place knots by a regular sequence of quantiles between the outer boundaries. A regression curve can easily be fitted to the sample using a relatively high number of knots. The problem is then overfitting, where a regression model has a good fit to the given sample but does not generalize well to other samples. A low knot count is thus preferred. However, the standard knot selection process can lead to underperformance in the sparser regions of the predictor variable, especially when using a low number of knots. It can also lead to overfitting in the denser regions. We present a simple greedy search algorithm using a backward method for knot selection that shows reduced prediction error and Bayesian information criterion scores compared to the standard knot selection process in simulation experiments. We have implemented the algorithm as part of an open-source R-package, knutar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: We recently showed that low microsatellite instability (MSI-L) is associated with a good response to platinum/5-fluorouracil (5-FU) neoadjuvant chemotherapy (CTx) in gastric cancer. The purpose of this study was to characterize the instability pattern and to investigate an association of MSI-L tumors with mutations in genes of DNA repair pathways and with total tumor mutation burden (TMB). Methods: MSI patterns were compared between 67 MSI high (-H) and 35 MSI-L tumors. Whole-exome sequencing was performed in 34 microsatellite stable (MSS) and 20 MSI-L tumors after or without neoadjuvant CTx. Results: Of the 35 MSI-L tumors, 33 tumors had instability at a dinucleotide repeat marker. In the homologous recombination (HR) pathway, 10 of the 34 (29%) MSS and 10 of the 20 (50%) MSI-L tumors showed variants (p = 0.154). In the DNA damage tolerance pathway, 6 of the 34 (18%) MSS and 7 of the 20 (35%) MSI-L tumors had variants (p = 0.194). The HR deficiency score was similar in both tumor groups. TMB was significantly higher in MSI-L compared to MSS tumors after CTx (p = 0.046). In the MSS and MSI-L tumors without CTx no difference was observed (p = 1.00). Conclusion: MSI-L due to instability at dinucleotide repeat markers was associated with increased TMB after neoadjuvant CTx treatment, indicating sensitivity to platinum/5-FU CTx. If confirmed in further studies, this could contribute to refined chemotherapeutic options including immune-based strategies for GC patients with MSI-L tumors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Infections are discussed as risk factor for multiple sclerosis (MS) development and relapses. This may lead to decreased vaccination frequency in newly diagnosed patients. Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the relation of MS diagnosis to subsequent vaccination frequency. Methods: Based on German ambulatory claims data from 2005 to 2019, regression models were used to assess the relation of MS diagnosis (n = 12,270) to vaccination. A cohort of patients with MS was compared to control cohorts with Crohn's disease, psoriasis, and without these autoimmune diseases (total n = 198,126) in the 5 years after and before diagnosis. Results: Patients with MS were less likely to be vaccinated compared to persons without the autoimmune diseases 5 years after diagnosis (odds ratio = 0.91, p < 0.001). Exceptions were vaccinations against influenza (1.29, p < 0.001) and pneumococci (1.41, p < 0.001). Differences were strong but less pronounced after than before diagnosis (p < 0.001). The likelihood of vaccination was also lower compared to patients with Crohn's disease or psoriasis. Conclusions: Patients with MS were not adequately vaccinated despite guideline recommendations. Increasing awareness about the importance of vaccination is warranted to reduce the risk of infection, in particular, in patients with MS receiving immunotherapies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Quick symptomatic remission after the onset of psychotic symptoms is critical in schizophrenia treatment, determining the subsequent disease course and recovery. In this context, only every second patient with acute schizophrenia achieves symptomatic remission within three months of initiating antipsychotic treatment. The potential indication extension of clozapine—the most effective antipsychotic—to be introduced at an earlier stage (before treatment-resistance) is supported by several lines of evidence, but respective clinical trials are lacking. Methods Two hundred-twenty patients with acute non-treatment-resistant schizophrenia will be randomized in this double-blind, 8-week parallel-group multicentric trial to either clozapine or olanzapine. The primary endpoint is the number of patients in symptomatic remission at the end of week 8 according to international consensus criteria ('Andreasen criteria'). Secondary endpoints and other assessments comprise a comprehensive safety assessment (i. e., myocarditis screening), changes in psychopathology, global functioning, cognition, affective symptoms and quality of life, and patients' and relatives' views on treatment. Discussion This multicentre trial aims to examine whether clozapine is more effective than a highly effective second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs), olanzapine, in acute schizophrenia patients who do not meet the criteria for treatment-naïve or treatment-resistant schizophrenia. Increasing the likelihood to achieve symptomatic remission in acute schizophrenia can improve the overall outcome, reduce disease-associated burden and potentially prevent mid- and long-term disease chronicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To investigate the prognostic role of microsatellite instability (MSI) in association with sex of patients treated with platinum/fluoropyrimidine neoadjuvant chemotherapy (CTx) with or without a taxane-containing compound. Methods: Of the 505 retrospectively analyzed patients with gastric or gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma, 411 patients were treated without taxane and 94 patients with a taxane-containing compound. MSI was determined using standard assays. Results: Females demonstrated a better overall survival (OS) than males in the non-taxane group (HR, 0.59; 95% CI 0.41–0.86; p = 0.005), whereas no significant difference was found in the taxane group (HR 1.22; 95% CI 0.55–2.73, p = 0.630). MSI-High (-H) was associated with a better prognosis in both groups (without taxane: HR 0.56; 95% CI 0.33–0.97; p = 0.038; with taxane: HR 0.28; 95% CI 0.04–2.02, p = 0.204). In the non-taxane group, female MSI-H patients showed the best OS (HR 0.18, 95% CI 0.05–0.73; p = 0.016), followed by the female microsatellite stable (MSS) (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.46–0.98, p = 0.040) and the male MSI-H group (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.42–1.37, p = 0.760) taken the male MSS group as reference. In the taxane group, female and male MSI-H patients demonstrated the best OS (female MSI-H: HR 0.05, 95% CI 0.00–240.46; male MSI-H: HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.61–3.63, p = 0.438), whereas the female MSS group showed a decreased OS (HR 1.39 95% CI 0.62–3.12, p = 0.420) compared to male MSS patients. Conclusion: OS in gastric/gastroesophageal cancer after CTx might depend on sex and MSI status and may differ between patients treated with or without a taxane compound in the chemotherapeutic regimen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To assess the efficacy and safety of ticagrelor versus prasugrel in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) presenting during off- and on-hours. Background: The efficacy and safety of ticagrelor versus prasugrel in patients with ACS according to time of hospital presentation remain unknown. Methods: This post hoc analysis of the ISAR-REACT 5 trial included 1565 patients with ACS presenting off-hours and 2453 patients presenting on-hours, randomized to ticagrelor or prasugrel. The primary endpoint was a composite of death, myocardial infarction, or stroke; the safety endpoint was Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) type 3–5 bleeding, both at 12 months. Results: The primary endpoint occurred in 80 patients (10.4%) in the ticagrelor group and 57 patients (7.3%) in the prasugrel group in patients presenting off-hours (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.45; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–2.03; P = 0.033), and 104 patients (8.5%) in the ticagrelor group and 80 patients (6.7%) in the prasugrel group in patients presenting on-hours (HR = 1.29 [0.97–1.73]; P = 0.085), without significant treatment arm-by-presentation time interaction (Pint = 0.62). BARC type 3 to 5 bleeding occurred in 35 patients (5.1%) in the ticagrelor group and 37 patients (5.3%) in the prasugrel group (P = 0.84) in patients presenting off-hours, and 60 patients (5.9%) in the ticagrelor group and 43 patients (4.6%) in the prasugrel group in patients presenting on-hours (P = 0.17). Conclusions: In patients with ACS planned to undergo an invasive treatment strategy, time of presentation (off-hours vs. on-hours) does not interact significantly with the relative efficacy and safety of ticagrelor vs. prasugrel. Clinical trial registration.: NCT01944800. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neuroinflammatory disease affecting about 2.8 million people worldwide. Disease course after the most common diagnoses of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) and clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) is highly variable and cannot be reliably predicted. This impairs early personalized treatment decisions. Objectives: The main objective of this study was to algorithmically support clinical decision-making regarding the options of early platform medication or no immediate treatment of patients with early RRMS and CIS. Design: Retrospective monocentric cohort study within the Data Integration for Future Medicine (DIFUTURE) Consortium. Methods: Multiple data sources of routine clinical, imaging and laboratory data derived from a large and deeply characterized cohort of patients with MS were integrated to conduct a retrospective study to create and internally validate a treatment decision score [Multiple Sclerosis Treatment Decision Score (MS-TDS)] through model-based random forests (RFs). The MS-TDS predicts the probability of no new or enlarging lesions in cerebral magnetic resonance images (cMRIs) between 6 and 24 months after the first cMRI. Results: Data from 65 predictors collected for 475 patients between 2008 and 2017 were included. No medication and platform medication were administered to 277 (58.3%) and 198 (41.7%) patients. The MS-TDS predicted individual outcomes with a cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of 0.624. The respective RF prediction model provides patient-specific MS-TDS and probabilities of treatment success. The latter may increase by 5–20% for half of the patients if the treatment considered superior by the MS-TDS is used. Conclusion: Routine clinical data from multiple sources can be successfully integrated to build prediction models to support treatment decision-making. In this study, the resulting MS-TDS estimates individualized treatment success probabilities that can identify patients who benefit from early platform medication. External validation of the MS-TDS is required, and a prospective study is currently being conducted. In addition, the clinical relevance of the MS-TDS needs to be established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ascitic fluid infection is a serious complication of liver cirrhosis. The distinction between the more common spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) and the less common secondary peritonitis in patients with liver cirrhosis is crucial due to the varying treatment approaches. This retrospective multicentre study was conducted in three German hospitals and analysed 532 SBP episodes and 37 secondary peritonitis episodes. Overall, >30 clinical, microbiological, and laboratory parameters were evaluated to identify key differentiation criteria. Microbiological characteristics in ascites followed by severity of illness and clinicopathological parameters in ascites were the most important predictors identified by a random forest model to distinguish between SBP and secondary peritonitis. To establish a point-score model, a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model selected the ten most promising discriminatory features. By aiming at a sensitivity of 95% either to rule out or rule in SBP episodes, two cut-off scores were defined, dividing patients with infected ascites into a low-risk (score ≥ 45) and high-risk group (score < 25) for secondary peritonitis. Overall, the discrimination of secondary peritonitis from SBP remains challenging. Our univariable analyses, random forest model, and LASSO point score may help clinicians with the crucial differentiation between SBP and secondary peritonitis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I genes, encompassing the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I and the beta-2 microglobulin (B2M) genes, play a key role in neoantigens presentation to the immune system. We analyzed allelic imbalance (AI) of the respective chromosomal regions by multiplex PCRs using microsatellite markers in biopsies of 158 patients with gastric/gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma before neoadjuvant platinum/fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy (CTx) for an association with clinical outcome of the patients. AI with no marker was significantly associated with response or survival. However, subgroup analysis revealed interesting differences. Of note, AI at markers of the HLA region was associated with a decreased survival only in responding but not in non-responding patients. No associations were observed for B2M markers. Our results underline the importance of intact neoantigen presentation specifically for responding patients and may help explain an unexpectedly poor survival of a patient despite significant tumor regression after neoadjuvant CTx. We aimed to determine the clinical and prognostic relevance of allelic imbalance (AI) of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I genes, encompassing the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I and beta-2 microglobulin (B2M) genes, in the context of neoadjuvant platinum/fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy (CTx). Biopsies before CTx were studied in 158 patients with adenocarcinoma of the stomach or gastroesophageal junction. The response was histopathologically evaluated. AI was detected by multiplex PCRs analysis of four or five microsatellite markers in HLA and B2M regions, respectively. AI with no marker was significantly associated with response or survival. However, subgroup analysis revealed differences. AI at marker D6S265, close to the HLA-A gene, was associated with an obvious increased risk in responding (HR, 3.62; 95% CI, 0.96–13.68, p = 0.058) but not in non-responding patients (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.51–1.65, p = 0.773). Markers D6S273 and D6S2872 showed similar results. The interaction between AI at D6S265 and response to CTx was significant in a multivariable analysis (p = 0.010). No associations were observed for B2M markers. Our results underline the importance of intact neoantigen presentation specifically for responding patients and may help explain an unexpectedly poor survival of a patient despite significant tumor regression after neoadjuvant platinum/fluoropyrimidine CTx. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Asthma education programs (AEPs) for patients are known to be important to provide skills to effectively manage the disease. We developed an electronic AEP (eAEP) and assessed the extent to which patients with asthma in primary care are capable to use the eAEP and whether asthma knowledge improved after eAEP. A single-arm pilot study was performed between November 2019 and December 2020 in 12 general practices in Upper Bavaria, Germany. Asthma knowledge was assessed by the Asthma Knowledge Test (AKT) at baseline, 2 weeks after completion of the eAEP, as well as after 3 and 6 months. AKT sum scores at baseline and follow-up were compared with each other using the Wilcoxon test. In total, 72 patients with asthma were included, of whom all participated in the 2-week follow-up, while data on the 3- and 6-month follow-up was available in 62 and 51 patients, respectively. The eAEP was well accepted and positively evaluated by participants. The mean AKT score significantly (p <.001) increased from 22.8 ± 11.0 at baseline to 44.6 ± 8.3 two weeks after completion of the eAEP. After 3 months, the mean score was still 41.8 ± 7.6, and after 6 months it was 40.2 ± 9.3 (p <.001 each compared to baseline). The internet-based asthma education program was well accepted by primary care patients and resulted in a major increase of asthma knowledge. Thus, it has the potential to be an important adjunct in the treatment of patients with asthma in general practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neuroinflammatory disease affecting about 2.8 million people worldwide. Disease course after the most common diagnoses of relapsingremitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) and clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) is highly variable and cannot be reliably predicted. This impairs early personalized treatment decisions. Objectives: The main objective of this study was to algorithmically support clinical decisionmaking regarding the options of early platform medication or no immediate treatment of patients with early RRMS and CIS. Design: Retrospective monocentric cohort study within the Data Integration for Future Medicine (DIFUTURE) Consortium. Methods: Multiple data sources of routine clinical, imaging and laboratory data derived from a large and deeply characterized cohort of patients with MS were integrated to conduct a retrospective study to create and internally validate a treatment decision score [Multiple Sclerosis Treatment Decision Score (MS-TDS)] through model-based random forests (RFs). The MS-TDS predicts the probability of no new or enlarging lesions in cerebral magnetic resonance images (cMRIs) between 6 and 24 months after the first cMRI. Results: Data from 65 predictors collected for 475 patients between 2008 and 2017 were included. No medication and platform medication were administered to 277 (58.3%) and 198 (41.7%) patients. The MS-TDS predicted individual outcomes with a cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of 0.624. The respective RF prediction model provides patient-specific MS-TDS and probabilities of treatment success. The latter may increase by 5-20% for half of the patients if the treatment considered superior by the MS-TDS is used. Conclusion: Routine clinical data from multiple sources can be successfully integrated to build prediction models to support treatment decision-making. In this study, the resulting MS-TDS estimates individualized treatment success probabilities that can identify patients who benefit from early platform medication. External validation of the MS-TDS is required, and a prospective study is currently being conducted. In addition, the clinical relevance of the MS-TDS needs to be established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non-linear regression modeling is common in epidemiology for prediction purposes or estimating relationships between predictor and response variables. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression is one such method, for example, highly relevant to Cox proportional hazard regression model analysis. RCS regression uses third-order polynomials joined at knot points to model non-linear relationships. The standard approach is to place knots by a regular sequence of quantiles between the outer boundaries. A regression curve can easily be fitted to the sample using a relatively high number of knots. The problem is then overfitting, where a regression model has a good fit to the given sample but does not generalize well to other samples. A low knot count is thus preferred. However, the standard knot selection process can lead to underperformance in the sparser regions of the predictor variable, especially when using a low number of knots. It can also lead to overfitting in the denser regions. We present a simple greedy search algorithm using a backward method for knot selection that shows reduced prediction error and Bayesian information criterion scores compared to the standard knot selection process in simulation experiments. We have implemented the algorithm as part of an open-source R-package, knutar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Case-based group discussions (CBGD) are a specific, interaction-focused format dedicated to fostering medical students' skills in applying basic biomedical knowledge to patient cases. Existing conceptions of CBGD suggest that a gradient towards increased opportunities for students to make elaborative verbal contributions is an important element of such seminars. To verify this assumption, we investigate empirically if clinical teachers progress from more basic, knowledge-oriented questions towards more advanced, elaboration-oriented questions in such seminars. Methods: We videotaped 21 different clinical teachers and 398 medical students in 32 CBGD-seminars on surgery and internal medicine. We coded closed-reproductive and open-elaborative teacher questions as well as reproductive and elaborative student responses to these questions. Inter-rater reliability was satisfactory. To determine trends regarding the teacher questions / student responses, we compared eight time-segments of equal duration per seminar. Results: Overall, clinical teachers asked more closed-reproductive than open-elaborative questions. Students gave more reproductive than elaborative responses. Regarding the frequencies of these forms of teacher questions / student responses, we found no significant differences over time. Conclusions: Clinical teachers did not deliberately modify the types of questions over time to push students towards more elaborative responses. We conclude that the critical question to which degree promising teaching approaches are actually put into clinical teaching practice should be raised more purposefully in medical education research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In chronically ill patients, medication adherence during implementation can be crucial for treatment success and can decrease health costs. In some populations, regression models do not show this relationship. We aim to estimate subgroup-specific and personalized effects to identify target groups for interventions. Methods: We defined three cohorts of patients with type 1 diabetes (n = 12,713), type 2 diabetes (n = 85,162) and hyperlipidemia (n = 117,485) from German claims data between 2012 and 2015. We estimated the association of adherence during implementation in the first year (proportion of days covered) and mean total costs in the three following years, controlled for sex, age, Charlson's Comorbidity Index, initial total costs, severity of the disease and surrogates for health behavior. We fitted three different types of models on training data: 1) linear regression models for the overall conditional associations between adherence and costs, 2) model-based trees to identify subgroups of patients with heterogeneous adherence effects, and 3) model-based random forests to estimate personalized adherence effects. To assess the performance of the latter, we conditionally re-estimated the personalized effects using test data, the fixed structure of the forests, and fixed effect estimates of the remaining covariates. Results: 1) our simple linear regression model estimated a positive adherence effect, that is an increase in total costs of 10.73 Euro per PDC-point and year for diabetes type 1, 3.92 Euro for diabetes type 2 and 1.92 Euro for hyperlipidemia (all p = 0.001). 2) The model-based tree detected subgroups with negative estimated adherence effects for diabetes type 2 (-1.69 Euro, 24.4% of cohort) and hyperlipidemia (-0.11 Euro, 36.1% and -5.50 Euro, 5.3%). 3) Our modelbased random forest estimated personalized adherence effects with a significant proportion (4.2%-24.1%) of negative effects (up to -8.31 Euro). The precision of these estimates was high for diabetes type 2 and hyperlipidemia patients. Discussion: Our approach shows that tree-based models can identify patients with different adherence effects and the precision of personalized effects is measurable. Identified patients can form target groups for adherencepromotion interventions. The method can also be applied to other outcomes such as hospitalization risk to maximize positive health effects of an intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding immune responses to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is crucial to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a multiplex approach, serum IgG responses against the whole SARSCoV-2 proteome and the nucleocapsid proteins of endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs) were measured in SARS-CoV-2-infected donors and healthy controls. COVID-19 severity strongly correlated with IgG responses against the nucleocapsid (N) of SARS-CoV-2 and possibly with the number of viral antigens targeted. Furthermore, a strong correlation between COVID-19 severity and serum responses against N of endemic alpha-but not betacoronaviruses was detected. This correlation was neither caused by cross-reactivity of antibodies, nor by a general boosting effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection on pre-existing humoral immunity. These findings raise the prospect of a potential disease progression marker for COVID-19 severity that allows for early stratification of infected individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tumour budding (TB) has been associated with adverse clinicopathological factors and poor survival in a plethora of therapy‐naïve carcinoma entities including gastric adenocarcinoma (GC). As conventional histopathological grading is usually omitted in the post‐neoadjuvant setting of GC, our study aimed to investigate the prognostic impact of TB in GCs resected after neoadjuvant therapy. We evaluated TB according to the criteria from the International Tumour Budding Consensus Conference (ITBCC) in 167 post‐neoadjuvant resections of intestinal‐type GC and correlated the results with overall survival (OS) and clinicopathological parameters. GCs were categorised into Bd1 (0–4 buds, low TB), Bd2 (5–9 buds, intermediate TB), and Bd3 (≥10 buds, high TB). Carcinomas with intermediate and high TB were significantly enriched in higher ypTNM stages and strongly associated with reduced 5‐year OS in univariable analyses (p < 0.001). In multivariable analyses including sex, age, resection status, UICC stage, and tumour regression grading, TB remained a stage‐independent predictor of survival (p < 0.001, hazard ratio Bd2: 2.60, Bd3: 4.74). The assessment of TB according to the ITBCC criteria provides valuable prognostic information in the post‐neoadjuvant setting of intestinal‐type GC and may be a considerable substitute for the conventional grading system in GCs after neoadjuvant therapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pregnancies have an impact on the disease course of multiple sclerosis (MS), but their relationship with MS risk is yet unclear. Objective: To determine the relationships of pregnancies and gynecological diagnoses with MS risk. Methods: In this retrospective case–control study, we assessed differences in gynecological International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) code recording rates between women with MS (n = 5720), Crohn's disease (n = 6280), or psoriasis (n = 40,555) and women without these autoimmune diseases (n = 26,729) in the 5 years before diagnosis. Results: Twenty-eight ICD-10 codes were recorded less frequently for women with MS as compared to women without autoimmune disease, 18 of which are pregnancy-related. After adjustment for pregnancies, all codes unrelated to pregnancies were still negatively associated with MS. In a sensitivity analysis excluding women with evidence for possible demyelinating events before diagnosis, all associations were more pronounced. In comparison to women with psoriasis, most associations could be confirmed; that was not true in comparison to women with Crohn's disease. Conclusion: Our findings provide evidence for a possible protective effect of pregnancies on MS risk likely independent of or in addition to a previously suggested reversed causality. The negative associations of gynecological disorders with disease risk need further investigation. The associations might be shared by different autoimmune diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Burns are leading causes of mortality and morbidity, Including prolonged hospitalization, disfigurement, and disability. Erythropoietin (EPO) is a well-known hormone causing erythropoiesis. However, EPO may play a role in healing acute and chronic wounds due to its anti-inflammatory and pro-regenerative effects. Therefore, the large, prospective, placebo-controlled, randomized, double-blind, multi-center clinical trial "EPO in Burns" was initiated to investigate the effects of EPO versus placebo treatment in severely burned patients. The primary endpoint of "EPO in Burns" was defined as the time elapsed until complete re-epithelialization of a defined split skin graft donor site. Additional analyses of post hoc defined subgroups were performed in view of the primary endpoint. The verum (n 45) and control (n 39) groups were compared with regard to the time it took for study wounds (a predefined split skin graft donor site) to reach the three stages of wound healing (re-epithelialization levels). In addition, the effects of gender (females n 18) and concomitant medications insulin (n 36), non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) (n 41), and vasopressor agents (n 43) were tested. Life tables were used to compare study groups (EPO vs. placebo) within subgroups. The Cox regression model was applied to evaluate interactions between the study drug (EPO) and concomitant medications for each re-epithelialization level. Using our post hoc defined subgroups, we observed a lower chance of wound healing for women compared to men (in terms of hazard ratio: hr100%: 5.984 [95%-CI: (0.805-44.490), p = 0.080]) in our study population, regardless of the study medication. In addition, results indicated an earlier onset of re-epithelialization in the first days of EPO treatment (EPO: 10% vs. Placebo: 3%). Moreover, the interpretation of the hazard ratio suggested EPO might have a positive, synergistic effect on early stages of re-epithelialization when combined with insulin [hr50%: 1.307 (p = 0.568); hr75%: 1,199 (p = 0.715)], as well as a stabilizing effect on critically ill patients [reduced need for vasopressors in the EPO group (EPO: 44% vs. Placebo 59%)]. However, additional high-quality data from clinical trials designed to address these endpoints are required to gain further insight into these effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the clinical impact of elevated microsatellite instability at selected tetranucleotide (EMAST) repeats in the context of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (CTx) in gastric/gastro‐oesophageal adenocarcinomas. We analysed 583 resected tumours (272 without and 311 after CTx) and 142 tumour biopsies before CTx. If at least two or three of the five tetranucleotide repeat markers tested showed instability, the tumours were defined as EMAST (2+) or EMAST (3+), respectively. Expression of mismatch repair proteins including MSH3 was analysed using immunohistochemistry. Microsatellite instability (MSI) and Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) positivity were determined using standard assays. EMAST (2+) and (3+) were detected in 17.8 and 11.5% of the tumours, respectively. The frequency of EMAST (2+) or (3+) in MSI‐high (MSI‐H) tumours was 96.2 or 92.5%, respectively, demonstrating a high overlap with this molecular subtype, and the association of EMAST and MSI status was significant (each overall p < 0.001). EMAST (2+ or 3+) alone in MSI‐H and EBV‐negative tumours demonstrated only a statistically significant association of EMAST (2+) positivity and negative lymph node status (42.3% in EMAST (2+) and 28.8% in EMAST negative, p = 0.045). EMAST alone by neither definition was significantly associated with overall survival (OS) of the patients. The median OS for EMAST (2+) patients was 40.0 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 16.4–63.6) compared with 38.7 months (95% CI 26.3–51.1) for the EMAST‐negative group (p = 0.880). The median OS for EMAST (3+) patients was 46.7 months (95% CI 18.2–75.2) and 38.7 months (95% CI 26.2–51.2) for the negative group (p = 0.879). No statistically significant association with response to neoadjuvant CTx was observed (p = 0.992 and p = 0.433 for EMAST (2+) and (3+), respectively). In conclusion, our results demonstrate a nearly complete intersection between MSI‐H and EMAST and they indicate that EMAST alone is not a distinct instability type associated with noticeable clinico‐pathological characteristics of gastric carcinoma patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Survivors of an acute myocardial infarction with diabetes mellitus retain an increased mortality risk. Reliable assessment of individual risk is required for effective and cost-efficient medical care in these patients. The Polyscore is a previously established risk predictor consisting of seven autonomic tests derived from electrocardiogram, blood pressure, and respiration. The Polyscore allows classification of survivors of myocardial infarction in groups at low, intermediate and high mortality risk. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of the Polyscore in diabetic survivors of acute myocardial infarction, which may be impaired by the presence of diabetic autonomic neuropathy. Survivors of an acute myocardial infarction were included in a prospective cohort study during hospitalisation due to the index event at two university hospitals in Munich, Germany. The Polyscore was determined from simultaneous non-invasive 30-min recordings of electrocardiogram, continuous arterial blood pressure, and respiration which were performed in all participants. Patients were followed for 5 years. The primary and secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality and cardiac mortality. 184 of 941 enrolled patients (19.6%) suffered from diabetes mellitus. 5-year-mortality was higher in diabetic patients (15.2%) compared to non-diabetic patients (5.8%). A multivariable Cox regression model confirmed the Polyscore as a strong predictor of mortality in diabetic post-MI patients (intermediate risk: HR 6.56, 95% CI 1.61–26.78, p = 0.004, mortality 22.8%; high risk: HR 18.76, 95% CI 4.35–80.98, p < 0.001, mortality 68.8%). There was no interaction between diabetes mellitus and the Polyscore regarding mortality prediction (p = 0.775). Interestingly, in contrast to the groups at intermediate and high risk (73 patients, 39.7%), the Polyscore identified a majority of diabetic patients (111, 60.3%) with a low mortality risk, comparable to that of low-risk non-diabetic patients (3.6% and 2.1%, respectively, p = 0.339). Consistent results were observed for cardiac mortality. This analysis shows that the Polyscore predicts all-cause and cardiac mortality in diabetic survivors of acute myocardial infarction. Within these patients it identifies a large population not affected by the excess mortality associated with diabetes in this setting. Thus, the Polyscore may facilitate risk-adapted follow-up strategies in diabetic survivors of myocardial infarction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims Dynamic retinal vessel analysis (DVA) provides a non-invasive way to assess microvascular function in patients and potentially to improve predictions of individual cardiovascular (CV) risk. The aim of our study was to use untargeted machine learning on DVA in order to improve CV mortality prediction and identify corresponding response alterations. Methods and results We adopted a workflow consisting of noise reduction and extraction of independent components within DVA signals. Predictor performance was assessed in survival random forest models. Applying our technique to the prediction of all-cause mortality in a cohort of 214 haemodialysis patients resulted in the selection of a component which was highly correlated to maximal venous dilation following flicker stimulation (vMax), a previously identified predictor, confirming the validity of our approach. When fitting for CV mortality as the outcome of interest, a combination of three components derived from the arterial signal resulted in a marked improvement in predictive performance. Clustering analysis suggested that these independent components identified groups of patients with substantially higher CV mortality. Conclusion Our results provide a machine learning workflow to improve the predictive performance of DVA and identify groups of haemodialysis patients at high risk of CV mortality. Our approach may also prove to be promising for DVA signal analysis in other CV disease states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study aimed to investigate the knowledge, attitudes, behaviors, and COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy of people with migratory backgrounds among Turkish- and German-speaking patients in Munich.Methods: Primary outcomes were the intention to get vaccinated for COVID-19 and COVID-19 knowledge levels (25 true/false items). Other variables included demographics, attitudes to COVID-19 and vaccination (7 items), and behaviors regarding COVID-19 (7 items). The attitude and behavior questions had 5-point Likert scales. Of the 10 Turkish-speaking family physicians in Munich, six agreed to administer Turkish or German questionnaires to consecutive patients in February 2021. Furthermore, participants with either citizenship, country of origin, native language, or place of birth being non-German were categorized as "Having a migratory background." Data from 420 respondents were analyzed.Results: Women constituted 41.4% (n = 174), the mean age was 42.2 ± 15.5 years, 245 (58.3%) preferred the Turkish questionnaire, 348 (82.9%) had a migratory background, and 197 (47.9%) intended to be vaccinated. The mean knowledge, attitude, and behavioral scores were 21.5 ± 3.2 (max = 25), 3.7 ± 0.8 (max = 5), and 4.0 ± 0.5 (max = 5). While 42.3% (n = 145) of the participants with a migratory background considered getting vaccinated, this proportion was 76.5% (n = 52) for non-immigrant Germans (Chi-square = 26.818, p < 0.001). Non-migratory background (odds ratio (OR): 3.082), high attitude scores (OR: 2.877), male sex (OR: 2.185), years of schooling (OR: 1.064), and age (OR: 1.022) were positively associated with vaccination intention.Conclusions: We suggest initiating or supporting projects run by persons or groups with immigrant backgrounds to attempt to elaborate and change their vaccination attitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) consortium described EBV positivity(+), high microsatellite instability (MSI-H), genomic stability (GS) and chromosomal instability (CIN) as molecular subtypes in gastric carcinomas (GC). We investigated the predictive and prognostic value of these subtypes with emphasis on CIN in the context of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (CTx) in GC.Methods: TCGA subgroups were determined for 612 resected adenocarcinomas of the stomach and gastro-oesophageal junction (291 without, 321 with CTx) and 143 biopsies before CTx. EBV and MSI-H were analysed by standard assays. CIN was detected by multiplex PCRs analysing 22 microsatellite markers. Besides the TCGA classification, CIN was divided into four CIN-subgroups: low, moderate, substantial, high. Mutation profiling was performed for 52 tumours by next-generation sequencing.Results: EBV(+) (HR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.23-1.02), MSI-H (HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.35-0.89) and GS (HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.45-1.13) were associated with increased survival compared to CIN in the resected tumours. Considering the extended CIN-classification, CIN-substantial was a negative prognostic factor in uni- and multivariable analysis in resected tumours with CTx (each p < 0.05). In biopsies before CTx, CIN-high predicted tumour regression (p = 0.026), but was not prognostically relevant.Conclusion: A refined CIN classification reveals tumours with different biological characteristics and potential clinical implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The competence centre for Residency Training in Family Medicine Bavaria (CCRTB) was established to improve the quality of postgraduate medical education by offering training and mentoring programmes for residents, and by providing train-the-trainer and mentoring courses for supervisors. Beyond that, regional Residency Training Networks (RTN) on avoluntary basis were developed to facilitate structured and efficient clinical rotation programs. Primary aim was to investigate the burden of burnout and the development of professionalism among CCRTB-residencies within a cross-sectional study. Secondary aim was to evaluate differences between CCRTB-residents with and without participation in aregional RTN. Burnout was determined with the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI), comprising the scales emotional exhaustion, depersonalization, and personal accomplishment. Ambulatory professionalization was evaluated using the German Professional Scale (Pro-D), comprising the scales professionalism towards the patient, towards other professionals, towards society, and towards oneself. Statistical significance of group differences was calculated by nonparametric tests. Multivariable linear regression modelling was performed to estimate the independent impact of professionalization and RTN participation on burnout scores. 347 CRRTB residents in ambulatory postgraduate training were invited, 212 (61.1%) participated, and 197 (92.9%) were included in our analyses. Lower emotional exhaustion and depersonalization, and increased personal accomplishment was associated with increased professionalisation, which was significant for nearly all Pro-D scales (p ≤ 0.05). RTN residents showed higher professionalism towards the patient (p = 0.031), other professionals (p = 0.012), and towards the society (p = 0.007) than residents of unstructured programs, and higher levels of personal accomplishment (p < 0.05). Early and efficient professionalization might be akey to reduce burnout and to establish asatisfying career in family medicine. Train-the-trainer and mentoring concepts should be implemented regularly for the training of residents. Thus, increased engagement in medical didactics should be aprerequisite for accreditation as atraining practice for residents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of contact history and clinical symptoms and to develop decision rules for ruling-in and ruling-out SARS-CoV-2 infection in family practice. We performed a prospective diagnostic study. Consecutive inclusion of patients coming for COVID-PCR testing to 19 general practices. Contact history and self-reported symptoms served as index test. PCR testing of nasopharyngeal swabs served as reference standard. Complete data were available from 1141 patients, 605 (53.0%) female, average age 42.2 years, 182 (16.0%) COVID-PCR positive. Multivariable logistic regression showed highest odds ratios (ORs) for "contact with infected person" (OR 9.22, 95% CI 5.61–15.41), anosmia/ageusia (8.79, 4.89–15.95), fever (4.25, 2.56–7.09), and "sudden disease onset" (2.52, 1.55–4.14). Patients with "contact with infected person" or "anosmia/ageusia" with or without self-reported "fever" had a high probability of COVID infection up to 84.8%. Negative response to the four items "contact with infected person, anosmia/ageusia, fever, sudden disease onset" showed a negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.98 (95% CI 0.96–0.99). This was present in 446 (39.1%) patients. NPV of "completely asymptomatic," "no contact," "no risk area" was 1.0 (0.96–1.0). This was present in 84 (7.4%) patients. To conclude, the combination of four key items allowed exclusion of SARS-CoV-2 infection with high certainty. With the goal of 100% exclusion of SARS-CoV-2 infection to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 to the population level, COVID-PCR testing could be saved only for patients with negative response in all items. The decision rule might also help for ruling-in SARS-CoV-2 infection in terms of rapid assessment of infection risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Risk factors of severe COVID-19 have mainly been investigated in the hospital setting. We investigated pre-defined risk factors for testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection and cardiovascular or pulmonary complications in the outpatient setting. Methods: The present cohort study makes use of ambulatory claims data of statutory health insurance physicians in Bavaria, Germany, with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test confirmed or excluded SARS-CoV-2 infection in first three quarters of 2020. Statistical modelling and machine learning were used for effect estimation and for hypothesis testing of risk factors, and for prognostic modelling of cardiovascular or pulmonary complications. Results: A cohort of 99 811 participants with PCR test was identified. In a fully adjusted multivariable regression model, dementia (odds ratio (OR) = 1.36), type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.14) and obesity (OR = 1.08) were identified as significantly associated with a positive PCR test result. Significant risk factors for cardiovascular or pulmonary complications were coronary heart disease (CHD) (OR = 2.58), hypertension (OR = 1.65), tobacco consumption (OR = 1.56), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (OR = 1.53), previous pneumonia (OR = 1.53), chronic kidney disease (CKD) (OR = 1.25) and type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.23). Three simple decision rules derived from prognostic modelling based on age, hypertension, CKD, COPD and CHD were able to identify high risk patients with a sensitivity of 74.8% and a specificity of 80.0%. Conclusions: The decision rules achieved a high prognostic accuracy non-inferior to complex machine learning methods. They might help to identify patients at risk, who should receive special attention and intensified protection in ambulatory care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Lung emphysema is an important phenotype of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and CT scanning is strongly recommended to establish the diagnosis. This study aimed to identify criteria by which physicians with limited technical resources can improve the diagnosis of emphysema.Methods: We studied 436 COPD patients with prospective CT scans from the COSYCONET cohort. All items of the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) and the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), the modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) scale, as well as data from spirometry and CO diffusing capacity, were used to construct binary decision trees. The importance of parameters was checked by the Random Forest and AdaBoost machine learning algorithms.Results: When relying on questionnaires only, items CAT 1 & 7 and SGRQ 8 & 12 sub-item 3 were most important for the emphysema- versus airway-dominated phenotype, and among the spirometric measures FEV1/FVC. The combination of CAT item 1 (≤ 2) with mMRC (> 1) and FEV1/FVC, could raise the odds for emphysema by factor 7.7. About 50% of patients showed combinations of values that did not markedly alter the likelihood for the phenotypes, and these could be easily identified in the trees. Inclusion of CO diffusing capacity revealed the transfer coefficient as dominant measure. The results of machine learning were consistent with those of the single trees.Conclusions: Selected items (cough, sleep, breathlessness, chest condition, slow walking) from comprehensive COPD questionnaires in combination with FEV1/FVC could raise or lower the likelihood for lung emphysema in patients with COPD. The simple, parsimonious approach proposed by us might help if diagnostic resources regarding respiratory diseases are limited. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, Identifier: NCT01245933, registered 18 November 2010, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/record/NCT01245933 . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The influence of lifestyle factors on the quality of life, incidence and tumor recurrence has been evaluated in several studies and is gaining increasing importance in cancer research. However, the extent of the influence of such lifestyle factors on the quality of life of cancer patients remains largely unclear, as does the number of patients actually pursuing these lifestyle changes. The purpose of this study was to examine the prevalence and predictors of lifestyle changes in patients with gynecological cancer.Methods: The survey consisted of a pseudonymous questionnaire that was conducted from January to May 2014 via a telephone interview with 141 patients with a gynaecological malignancy who had undergone surgery at our Department of Gynaecology and Obstetrics. Lifestyle factors (diet, physical activity, stress level, alcohol and nicotine consumption) prior to and after the diagnosis of cancer were evaluated.Results: 89% (n = 125) of the patients reported lifestyle changes after being diagnosed with cancer. There was a significant association between the implementation of lifestyle changes and age as well as the use of complementary medicine. Nutrition: 66% of the patients (n = 93) consumed more fruit and vegetables and 65% ate less meat (n = 92). Physical activity: 37% (n = 52) reported no change in their exercise routine, 36% (n = 51) described a decrease, 27% (n = 38) an increase in their physical activity. Subjective feeling of stress: 77% of the patients (n = 108) described a reduction in their perceived level of stress. Nicotine consumption: 63% (n = 12) of the 19 patients who were smokers at the time of the diagnosis quit or reduced smoking thereafter. Alcohol consumption: 47% (n = 61/129) of the patients reduced their alcohol consumption.Conclusions: Most of the patients from our study group implemented lifestyle changes after being diagnosed with cancer. Prospective randomized trials are needed in order to determine the benefit of lifestyle changes (physical activity, dietary habits and stress reduction) for cancer survivors. The potential impact of lifestyle on the quality of life and the trajectory of the disease should be discussed with all oncological patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Subgroup analyses are frequently used to assess heterogeneity of treatment effects in randomised clinical trials. Inconsistent, improper and incomplete implementation, reporting and interpretation have been identified as ongoing challenges. Further, subgroup analyses were frequently criticised because of unreliable or potentially misleading results. More recently, recommendations and guidelines have been provided to improve the reporting of data in this regard. Methods: This systematic review was based on a literature search within the digital archives of three selected medical journals, The New England Journal of Medicine, The Lancet and Circulation. We reviewed articles of randomised clinical trials in the domain of cardiovascular disease which were published in 2015 and 2016. We screened and evaluated the selected articles for the mode of implementation and reporting of subgroup analyses. Results: We were able to identify a total of 130 eligible publications of randomised clinical trials. In 89/130 (68%) articles, results of at least one subgroup analysis were presented. This was dependent on the considered journal (p < 0.001), the number of included patients (p < 0.001) and the lack of statistical significance of a trial's primary analysis (p < 0.001). The number of reported subgroup analyses ranged from 1 to 101 (median = 13). We were able to comprehend the specification time of reported subgroup analyses for 71/89 (80%) articles, with 55/89 (62%) articles presenting exclusively pre-specified analyses. This information was not always traceable on the basis of provided trial protocols and often did not include the pre-definition of cut-off values for the categorization of subgroups. The use of interaction tests was reported in 84/89 (94%) articles, with 36/89 (40%) articles reporting heterogeneity of the treatment effect for at least one primary or secondary trial outcome. Subgroup analyses were reported more frequently for larger randomised clinical trials, and if primary analyses did not reach statistical significance. Information about the implementation of subgroup analyses was reported most consistently for articles from The New England Journal of Medicine, since it was also traceable on the basis of provided trial protocols. We were able to comprehend whether subgroup analyses were pre-specified in a majority of the reviewed publications. Even though results of multiple subgroup analyses were reported for most published trials, a corresponding adjustment for multiple testing was rarely considered. Conclusion: Compared to previous reviews in this context, we observed improvements in the reporting of subgroup analyses of cardiovascular randomised clinical trials. Nonetheless, critical shortcomings, such as inconsistent reporting of the implementation and insufficient pre-specification, persist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]