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The article examines the question whether financial market imperfections improve the forecasting accuracy of the DSGE model of the Russian economy. To do this, a comparison of the predictive power of several versions of DSGE models evaluated on Russian data is made. The two-sector model of a small open economy is used as a base model. The extended version of the model includes a financial accelerator mechanism and considers two alternative estimates of the model: an estimate using the same data set on which the base model is evaluated, and an estimate using market risk premium data. We conclude that the financial accelerator model, estimated using risk premium data, predicts the key macroeconomic variables output and inflation more accurately. At the same time, the remaining variables that were used to estimate the model parameters give worse predictions. As a result, in practice it is recommended to combine both types of models when analyzing and preparing a forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the impact of the financial accelerator on the reaction of asset prices to monetary policy shocks but from the demand side of the economy. In response to a 100-basis point increase in the monetary policy rate, the baseline model shows a stock price reaction of approximately 4.81% without the financial accelerator and of 5.60% with the financial accelerator. This finding is consistent with the financial accelerator literature and the literature on asset prices and monetary policy shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops a hybrid model with an agent-based financial accelerator framework embedded in a standard new Keynesian economy. It explores the interactions between the financial accelerator and the credit market, focusing on the effects of bankruptcy. The paper replicates credit-market relationships, modeling various credit crunch scenarios. It uncovers endogenous fluctuations and "animal spirits" in entrepreneurs' expectations, driving investment and production decisions. Notably, higher pro-cyclical leverage can have destabilizing effects in the presence of small shocks, increasing entrepreneurs' bankruptcies. The results suggest that monetary policy's effectiveness in stabilizing fluctuations depends on factors such as heterogeneity, bounded rationality, and heuristic updating mechanisms. Moderate monetary policies perform better in terms of economic growth with moderate-to-low volatility, while aggressive policies on inflation assist bounded rational agents in reducing errors in investment decisions and default rates, fostering a more stable macroeconomic environment. Increasing forecasting options introduces diversification among entrepreneurs, reducing volatility and stabilizing investments. More options mitigate investment fluctuations, acting as a counterbalance to prevailing market sentiments. Over time, individuals weakly adhering to trends or adopting contrarian approaches come to dominate the population of entrepreneurs, enhancing the overall stability of investment decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We document that leased capital accounts for about 20% of total physical productive assets used by US public firms, and its proportion is more than 40% among small and financially constrained firms. The leased capital ratio exhibits a strong countercyclical pattern over business cycles and a positive correlation with cross-sectional idiosyncratic uncertainty. We argue that existing macro models with financial frictions assume that firms cannot rent capital and overlook the effects of leasing activities on business cycle dynamics. We explicitly introduce a buy-versus-lease decision into the Bernanke–Gertler–Gilchrist financial accelerator model setting to demonstrate a novel and quantitatively important economic mechanism: that the increased use of leased capital when financial constraints become tighter in bad states significantly mitigates the financial accelerator mechanism and thus also mitigates the response of macroeconomic variables to negative total factor productivity shocks and risk shocks. We provide strong empirical evidence to support our mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of China Population Resources & Environment is the property of Shandong Normal University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this paper, we first show the importance of financial inclusion for poor households for the economy. We also study the impact of the social planner financial policy that helps offset entrepreneurs' credit risk exposure and guarantee greater inclusion. We estimate one-country GIMF-DSGE model with financial accelerator based on Ivory Coast's economy, which is a developing country where financial inclusion for households and businesses still remains a major challenge for policy makers. First, in response to monetary, technology and investment demand shocks, poor households' consumption rises. This results in an increase in total consumption and output. Further, the quantitative magnitudes of these aggregates are higher when poor households have access to credit. Second, while the planner policy is zero in normal times, it rises during the financial crisis. Further, the macroprudential policy works to reduce the external finance premium. As a result, bank credit and investment increase. Without monitoring, entrepreneurs are subject to risk, whereas introducing the regulation mitigates their credit risk exposure, as leverage declines. Lastly, regulation usefully complements monetary policy and is realized to be welfare improving. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2022 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel was awarded to Ben S. Bernanke, Douglas W. Diamond, and Philip H. Dybvig "for research on banks and financial crises". This article surveys the contributions of the three laureates and discusses how their insights have changed the way that academics and policymakers understand banks and their roles in financial crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global financial crisis was characterized by heightened financial risk in the USA, which spread to the rest of the world, including emerging economies. This paper constructs a core–periphery model with a global banking network and financial frictions. Due to a common-lender effect, when global banks lend to an emerging economy, heightened financial risk in the center depresses cross-border lending to the emerging economy, reducing real activities, and exacerbating monetary policy trade-offs. As financial markets become more integrated, exchange rate flexibility becomes less welfare enhancing and active capital account policy becomes more welfare enhancing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore the macro-financial consequences of the disruption of a supply chain in an agent-based framework characterized by two networks, a credit network connecting banks and firms and a production network connecting upstream and downstream firms. We consider two scenarios. In the first one, because of the lockdown, all the upstream firms are forced to cut production. This generates a sizable downturn during the lockdown due to the indirect effects of the shock (network-based financial accelerator). In the second scenario, only those upstream firms located in the 'red zone' are forced to contract production. In this case, the recession is milder and the recovery begins earlier. Upstream firms hit by the shock, in fact, will be abandoned by their customers who will switch to suppliers who are located outside the red zone. In this way, firms endogenously reconstruct (at least in part) the supply chain after the disruption. This is the main determinant of the mitigated impact of the shock in the 'red zone' type of lockdown. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies identify Marginal Efficiency of Investment (MEI) shocks as important drivers of the business cycle. However, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models struggle to explain macroeconomic comovements between consumption and the key real variables after a MEI shock. Moreover, engaging in tax evasion practices is often an answer to financial constraints, which have been recognized as important determinants of cyclical fluctuations as well. We use a medium‐scale New Keynesian DSGE model, that combines tax evasion with financial frictions, to simulate a MEI shock. We show that entrepreneurial tax evasion can solve the comovement problem to a fair extent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a financial accelerator framework to study the effects of heterogeneous and bounded rational expectations on macroeconomic dynamics. The paper examines the fluctuations effects departing from the rational expectations hypothesis in order to understand if there are significant implications on macroeconomic volatility and policy prescriptions. The findings suggest that macroeconomic stability and inflation dynamics depend on the chosen set of forecasting rules, as well as on the monetary policy adopted. The model shows that no monetary policy is able to quickly stabilize the system, as some fluctuations persist. Central banks face a trade-off between macro-volatility and speed of convergence to the steady state. This result offers some ground for fiscal policies aiming to prompt system stability. In addition, the analysis reveals a counterintuitive result confirming the "less-is-more" effect: increasing the decision-making and computational abilities of the agents may not lead the system to converge to the preferable steady state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effects of mark-to-market accounting for risky liabilities on the business cycle. While marking assets to market results in an amplification of the business cycle, as is well-known from the financial accelerator model à la Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist [Bernanke, B. S., M. Gertler, and S. Gilchrist. 1999. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework." In Handbook of Macroeconomics, edited by J. Taylor and M. Woodford, Elsevier.], allowing for debt with a specific maturity priced at market value generates ambiguous effects. Changes in the market price of debt affects firms' net worth since the accounting principle takes the perspective of repurchasing debt. This is called the prolongation channel of debt. Real economic activity is attenuated as long as asset and debt prices move in the same direction, whereas the response of debt prices is stronger. This happens for a monetary policy shock or a shock to total factor productivity. Amplification occurs if both prices move in opposite directions, as is the case for a demand shock. The implications for the business cycle eventually depend on the occurrence of shocks. Implementing mark-to-market accounting for liabilities in a model for the US yields a higher volatility of the business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a model to study how risk averse banks use excess reserves to manage risk on their asset portfolios. Our model predicts that risk averse banks accumulate substantial holdings of excess reserves in response to large, low-probability shocks to the risk on loans. Our findings support the hypothesis that risk aversion led banks to build-up excess reserves within the US banking system in September of 2008 following news about the failure of Lehman Brothers and the credit downgrade of AIG. Moreover, our model also explains the magnitude of excess reserve fluctuations observed in the US over typical business cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a simple modification of an otherwise standard New Consensus open economy model. We include an endogenous risk premium to show that a Taylor Rule that satisfies the Taylor Principle may lead to instability if exchange rate depreciations worsen the balance sheet of firms, exerting a negative effect on output and employment. Thus, the adoption of Inflation Targeting and a flexible exchange rate regime introduces destabilizing forces in economies that are exposed to liability dollarization, and this helps to rationalize central bank interventions in the foreign exchange market to avoid large exchange rate fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the relationship between bond spreads and macro economy has been studied extensively by economists in western countries. However, few attentions were paid on this topic in China. This essay regards Chinese bond market as a complex system and constructs bond indices for China with the bottom-up approach. The authors use the data of 3,205 non-financial corporate bonds from February 2010 to October 2017 and construct a new spread noted as the PE_SOE spread. The authors find that the PE_SOE spread has a negative impact on economic activities and has the best predictive ability at short-run forecasting horizons, owing to the institutional superiority of the state-owned enterprises in China. The Treasury bond yields are found to have the best predictive ability at long-run horizons. Both spread shock and Treasury yield shock could lead to deflation and declines in economic activities, and the Treasury yield shock has a more severe and persistent impact on the economy due to the financial accelerator mechanism. PE_SOE spread is proved to be a better indicator for Chinese corporate bond market and can be widely used not only in future Chinese economic studies, but also for Chinese government's macroeconomic monitoring and warning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a Markov transfer matrix is used to characterize exogenous sudden shocks, and a closed economic DSGE model including a financial accelerator is constructed to simulate the impact of sudden shocks on China's macroeconomic performance. The study found that: (1) Sudden impacts reduce output, investment, consumption, capital, technology, and enterprise value, but improve labor, inflation, and risk premium, thus weakeningmacroeconomic risk resilience. (2) The impact of sudden shocks on macroeconomic variables, from large to small, is net worth, technical level, labor, inflation, investment, capital, output, and external premium. (3) It is appropriate for the government to adopt the principle of combining broad finance measures and tight currency controls in order to improve the risk resistance ability of macroeconomic operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Are uncertainty shocks a major source of business cycle fluctuations? This paper studies the effect of a mean preserving shock to the variance of aggregate total factor productivity (macro-uncertainty) and to the dispersion of entrepreneurs' idiosyncratic productivity (micro-uncertainty) in a financial accelerator dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices. It explores the different mechanisms through which uncertainty shocks are propagated and amplified. The time-series properties of macro- and micro-uncertainty are estimated using U.S. aggregate and firm-level data, respectively. While surprise increases in micro-uncertainty have a larger impact on total output than macro-uncertainty, these can only account for a small (but nontrivial) share of output volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: I use a financial accelerator model to study interest and prices under boom–busts driven by changes in expectations about total factor productivity (TFP) and credit. I show that inflation falls in the boom phase of the TFP episode and then recovers during the bust, yet rises in the boom phase of the credit episode and then falls during the bust. Furthermore, for both episodes, the overaccumulation of debt relative to capital during the boom is critical for the busts since it implies a fall in credit worthiness. Finally, I show that stricter inflation targeting reduces inefficiencies in all instances but the boom phase of the TFP episode. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We add the Bernanke–Gertler–Gilchrist model to a modified version of the Smets–Wouters model of the U.S. in order to explore the causes of the banking crisis. The innovation of this article is estimating the model using unfiltered data allowing for non-stationary shocks in order to replicate how the model predicts the crisis. We find that ‘traditional shocks’ account for most of the fluctuations in macroeconomic variables; the non-stationarity of the productivity shock plays a key role. Crises occur when there is a ‘run’ of bad shocks; based on this sample they occur on average once every 64 years and when they occur around 10% are accompanied by financial crisis. Financial shocks on their own, even when extreme, do not cause crises – provided the government acts swiftly to counteract such a shock as happened in this sample. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a large data set on investments and accounting information for private firms, we put the balance sheet theory to test. We find that firm cash flow has a positive impact on investment and that the effect is enhanced for firms which are more likely to be financially constrained. We also find that the investment-cash flow sensitivity is significantly larger and more persistent during the first half of our sample period, which includes a severe banking crisis and recession. Our results suggest that financial constraints matter more in periods characterized by adverse economic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By combining the approaches of Gertler and Karadi (2011) (GK) and Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999) (BGG), I develop a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with leverage constraints both in the banking and in the nonfinancial firm sector. I calibrate this “full model” to US data. The full model matches the relative volatility of the external finance premium and the procyclicality of bank leverage and thus outperforms both a BGG and a GK-type model. For a reasonably calibrated combination of balance sheet shocks, the model reproduces a substantial share of the contraction (increase) of investment (the external finance premium) observed during the “Great Recession.” [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies macro credit policies within the financial accelerator model of Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1999). The focus is on borrower-based restrictions on lending such as loan-to-value (LTV) ratios. We find that the efficacy of cyclical taxes on LTV ratios depends upon the nature of the underlying loan contract. If the loan contract contains equity-like features such as indexation to aggregate conditions, then there is little role for cyclical taxation. But if the loan contract is not indexed to aggregate conditions, then there are substantial gains to procyclical taxes on LTV ratios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I explore the dynamics of real estate market fluctuations and business cycle co-movements in a neoclassical setting. Applying a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of collateral constraints with asset reallocation to Japan, I find that public policy shocks account well for the business cycle dynamics. In particular, taxes on land holdings of households mimic the impact of a housing preference shock, and if volatile enough, can trigger large asset price fluctuations. However, in the absence of volatility, the impact on prices is intrinsically linked to the persistence of shocks. Dependence on fixed assets such as real estate to secure collateral-based financing significantly amplifies the effect of initial shocks on the real macro aggregates. The financial accelerator works through the “redistribution channel,” shifting a large fraction of the collateral between constrained and unconstrained agents in response to an external stimuli. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this survey, I review the academic and policy-oriented literature on the linkages between financial markets and the rest of the economy. First, I summarize the leading economic theories for why the financial sector can influence the macroeconomy. Second, I consider empirical research on spillovers from the financial sector to the rest of the economy, as well as across financial markets in different countries. Third, I discuss key monetary policy debates regarding the appropriate response of central banks to financial conditions. Finally, I conclude with an overview of the major gaps in the existing literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to test the applicability of the "financial accelerator" mechanism to China. Using the Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database, we find strong evidence suggesting that the employment and investment of leveraged firms are less responsive to aggregate fluctuations. This finding goes against the implications of the "financial accelerator". To make sure our empirical result is reliable, we have done several robustness checks using different estimation methods and subsamples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, bank lending rates of 50 developing countries are analyzed for their effects of economic propagation. These countries are divided into two groups of high and low foreign debt levels, and the differential impact of lending rate on the economy is analyzed to see if there exists an accelerating impact on the economies of high foreign debt countries by the external finance premium in the lending rate. The results are mixed, possibly due to the mitigating effect that, banks can effectively reduce asymmetric information problems in credit market by monitoring their borrowers through long-term customer relationships and line-of-credit arrangement. In addition, the bank lending rates might have been used as a monetary tool to counter the negative developments of economic conditions in these countries. During the pre-crisis period when banks' risk appetite and liabilities are growing, the lending rate shows a stronger feedback effect upon initial economic shock in the high foreign debt countries, and provides room for economic propagation with the countercyclical movement of the external finance premium in the lending rate. During the crisis and post-crisis periods, however, sufficient evidence is not found for the accelerating impact in the high foreign debt countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Three themes connecting housing and the macroeconomy are discussed. First, evidence is presented for the property market as one of the drivers of U.S. consumer price inflation. Second, key drivers of house prices are explained to account for the remarkable diversity of international experience. Finally, three potential links between housing, credit, and the financial accelerator are discussed. These are the consumption channel, the investment channel, and feedback between bad loans and risk-spreads via the financial system-and how institutional differences between countries can explain the presence, absence and magnitudes of these linkages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A house price boom occurred simultaneously in the United States and in a number of European countries from 2003 to 2007, accompanied in each case by an expansion in housing finance. This article considers the role of financial innovation along with incomplete markets in these cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial factors influencing the business cycle have received considerable attention in recent years in the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2008. This paper examines the role of financial factors in the business cycle by considering Korea, a small open economy, that experienced a severe financial crisis in 1997 as well as the recent global financial crisis. We estimate small open economy Bayesian DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) models with financial factors and analyze the role of these financial factors in the business cycle in the context of Korea. The results indicate that the model based on an endogenous financial accelerator and a modified monetary policy rule provides a better explanation to the data than that without the financial factors and justify the recent attention to financial factors influencing the business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In existing literature, commercial banks are often considered mere financial intermediaries that facilitate the flow of credit in an imperfect credit market. However, as demonstrated in the history of financial instability, the behavior of financial institutions plays an important role. This paper examines how lenders' attitudes affect macroeconomic performance. In our analysis, the economy is composed of multiple borrowers (firms) and one lender (bank). Each borrower is directly connected to the lender through its credit contract. At the same time, each borrower is indirectly connected to all the other borrowers within the credit network. Using this model, we execute computer simulations to examine the economic consequences of lending attitudes. The results of the simulations demonstrate that the bank's lending attitude functions as a financial accelerator; that is, it significantly affects the dynamics of the economic system through the credit network. Consequently, the same level of exogenous shock generates completely different outcomes depending on the different lending attitudes. The results also show that there exists an optimal lending attitude that leads to high economic growth and a stable growth path. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study empirically identifies the impact of various macroeconomic factors on the default risk premium. Using monthly data for the period 1970–2010 for the US, our estimations indicate that the monetary policy aggregates, risk-free interest rate, term structure of interest rates, inflation, and the state of the business cycle influence the risk premium. The results also provide some evidence in support of the hypothesis that the development of information technology has had a decreasing impact on the risk premium. As expected, various financial crises have had substantial and long-lasting effects on the premium. The results suggest that the direct impact of the subprime crisis and Lehman’s collapse on the risk premium was as large as two and a half percentage-points for a sustainable period. Foreign financial crises, in turn, have lowered the risk premium in the US market, suggesting a flight-to-safety phenomenon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – During the Greenspan-Bernanke era, the responses of Federal Reserve officials to financial crises resulted in an extraordinary involvement of the US central bank in the non-banking financial sector. The purpose of this paper is to examine the informal and evolving conceptual framework that allows Federal Reserve officials to pursue a strategy of "constrained discretion" in responding to financial disturbances. Design/methodology/approach – Behavioural economics relies on designed psychological and economic experiments to predict behavioural biases at the group level. As an analogue applicable to understanding biases in the intuitive judgments of individual policymakers, a naïve behavioural economics approach relies on intuitive or naive psychology and the interpretation of historical events as natural experiments to explain why intuitive judgments of Federal Reserve officials will contain biases. Findings – Under the Greenspan-Bernanke conceptual framework, Federal Reserve officials exercise "constrained discretion" in responding to disturbances arising from macro structural changes in the financial sector. The two key concepts are the Greenspan-Bernanke doctrine on how the Federal Reserve officials respond to financial asset price bubbles and their collapses, and Bernanke's financial accelerator. Several examples are cited in which policy errors made by Alan Greenspan were attributable to identifiable biases in his intuitive judgment. In addition, Bernanke's response to the financial crisis of 2007-2009 was based on his interpretation of the Great Depression as a natural experiment. But that interpretation was heavily biased by the influence of Milton Friedman on Bernanke's intuitive judgment. While Federal Reserve officials will need to exercise discretionary judgment in responding to financial crises, the potential for errors due to biases in that judgment can be reduced through regulatory reforms that lessen the potential for financial crises to occur. Originality/value – While quantitative analyses of the effects of the Federal Reserve's actions on non-bank financial institutions and the financial markets are ongoing, little attention has been given to the psychological aspects of the intuitive judgment that influences the discretionary decisions of the policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

US data show that the external finance premium, measured by the high yield bond spread, moves countercyclically and leads movements in output by four quarters. This paper constructs a model with nominal rigidities and financial accelerator to explain this observation. The key finding of this paper is: it is agents’ reaction on news about future technology changes that generates the observed countercyclical movement and lead-lag pattern of the external finance premium, while a contemporary technology shock generates a procyclical movement of the external finance premium. The variance decomposition based on the estimated model demonstrates that news shocks account for about 72% of fluctuations in the external finance premium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Costly state verification models predict that the sensitivity of borrowing costs to financial leverage is positively related to the level of state verification costs (financial frictions). This paper constructs a measure of financial frictions that is consistent with this prediction of theory. Using bond deals from 47 countries, financial frictions are captured as the sensitivity of bond spreads to the issuing firms' financial leverage. This dynamic measure of financial frictions provides new insights into three characteristics of financial frictions. 1) In contrast to the inferences drawn from widely-used measures, financial frictions display a large degree of variability, and have decreased over time. 2) The effect of financial frictions on private credit supply has decreased both in significance and magnitude over time. 3) Bankruptcy reforms, in general, have not been effective in improving creditor/borrower rights. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Ecos de Economía is the property of Universidad EAFIT and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study has two objectives. First, it analyzes the influence of corporate income taxes on the cost of external finance to firms in imperfect financial markets, and second, it evaluates the transmission of monetary and tax shocks in this framework. A model is proposed providing evidence on two opposite effects of corporate tax on a firm's external financing cost: a positive effect is induced by the traditional tax shield channel, while a negative effect comes from the firm's balance sheet channel. The dominance of one of these effects depends on firms' financial health. In a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, the presence of taxes amplifies the macroeconomic reaction of the real variables to monetary shocks, thus amplifying the financial accelerator role of the firm's balance sheet. As in the case of monetary shocks, the balance sheet channel acts equally in the model as an accelerator for the transmission of tax shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to evaluate whether frictions in credit markets are important for business cycles in the United States and the euro area. I modify the DSGE financial accelerator model developed by Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999) by adding such frictions as price indexation to past inflation, sticky wages, consumption habits and variable capital utilization. When estimating the model using Bayesian methods, I find that financial frictions are relevant in both areas. According to the posterior odds ratio, the data clearly favor the model with financial frictions, both in the United States and the euro area. Moreover, financial frictions are larger in the euro area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates sources of asset price fluctuation in Japan using an estimated financial accelerator model. For explicit treatment of expectational beliefs characterized by sunspots, the model is analyzed over the parameter space where the equilibrium can be indeterminate. We show that indeterminacy arises if the financial accelerator effect is sufficiently large. According to our Bayesian estimation results, Japan's economy was affected by sunspot shocks; however, the contribution of the sunspots to asset price volatility was low. Rather, net worth and cost shocks drove the asset price fluctuation. We find, however, that the sunspots substantially affected capital investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract. This paper examines the role of financial market imperfections for output reactions to nominal interest rate shocks. Empirical evidence shows a hump-shaped impulse response function of output and suggests that credit supply co-moves with output. A monetary business cycle model with staggered price setting is presented where the firms' outlays for capital and labor must be covered by the sum of net worth of entrepreneurs and loans in the form of debt contracts. These properties are shown to generate a hump-shaped impulse response of output, which takes on the smooth and persistent appearance of the empirical output response when nominal wages are set in a staggered way, too. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]