Search

I make use of the characteristics of more than 6000 rock bands to empirically analyze if and how the stability of their members helps them to get a higher level of success. Bands cover all genres of Rock music (from Country to Punk), and their performance is assessed by having a song ranked in Billboard 100. Analyzing how the turn-over of members of a band affects their performance, it appears that the total number of musicians that left the band (compared to the actual number of musicians) – used as an indicator of instability –positively impacts the probability of a success. This may reveal that more talented musicians tend to be recruited after the departure of founding members, or that new members bring fresh ideas. The latter interpretation is supported by another result, showing that solo artists have a higher probability of success than bands. Finally, I also show that bands that come back to the stage after a split do not perform better. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We build a new dataset covering 90 years of Cholera spreading in Hindustan from 1814 to 1904. We gather data from a collection of primary sources issued from medical reports. We propose a harmonization procedure to make these data comparable and corresponding to the current borders of India, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Our methodology is corroborated when comparing our newly produced data with other accounts, in particular Roger (1926)'s estimations. It opens the door to research aiming at estimating the effect of the successive waves of Cholera on the economic, social and epidemiological dynamics of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do natural and man-made disasters faced by central bankers in their impressionable years influence their decision-making? Using data on a large panel of central bankers from developing and developed countries, we find that central bankers who have experienced a larger number of natural as well as man-made disasters tend to act in a more conservative way. In particular, the experience of famines is the most traumatizing and influential. The results are robust to the inclusion of control variables and alternative measures of disasters, and reveal strong behavioural differences when comparing before and after the 2008 financial crisis. JEL codes: E02; E58; E71; 01 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article uses a survey amongst students at European universities to explore whether Russia's invasion of Ukraine has affected attitudes towards European integration. Some respondents completed the survey just before Russia's assault on 24 February 2022, and some did so just afterwards, thus delivering a quasi‐experimental design situation, which we exploit. Our results suggest that the ominous news about the Russian attack increased the participants' interest in EU politics, consolidated their attachment to the EU and made them more mindful and appreciative of the benefits of deeper European integration. In effect, the war so close to the EU Eastern border provoked a rally around the supranational EU flag, with convergence of public opinion towards shared European values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a survey among students at European universities to explore whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has affected attitudes toward European integration. Some respondents completed the survey just before Russia’s assault on February 24, 2022, and some did so just afterwards, thus delivering a quasi-experimental design situation, which we exploit. Our results suggest that the ominous news about the Russian attack increased the participants’ interest in EU politics, consolidated their attachment to the EU, and made them more mindful and appreciative of the benefits of deeper European integration. In effect, the war so close to the EU Eastern border provoked a rally around the supranational EU flag, with convergence of public opinion toward shared European values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How can two countries' trade policies be related to each other? A first possibility is that they are not related at all and that each country's tariffs are defined under national considerations (the "rock" hypothesis). A second is that each country adapts its tariffs in reaction to what the other does (the "tango" hypothesis). A third is that both countries react to events happening in the rest of the world (the "roll" possibility). This paper examines the determinants of Australia's and the US' average tariff levels. Relying on historical data that cover a century (1904 to 2005), the three hypotheses are examined. The results indicate a strong long-run relation between the US and the Australian tariffs. Interrelations are also exhibited, with the US decisions influencing more strongly the Australian tariffs than the opposite. The results are important to assess the sustainability and stability of the regional trade agreements in the Pacific area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

If historical shocks influence educational outcomes, how long does the effect last, and does it differ among ethnic groups? This study answers these questions by exploiting the historical experiment of partition—that is the splitting of the British Raj into India and Pakistan—and by presenting a theoretical model that explains the trade-offs such a shock uncovers for different ethnic groups that have to decide between assimilation through education and maintaining their ethnic specificity. We use different rounds of Pakistan social and living standard measurement (PSLM) survey and analyze the educational outcomes of the grandchildren of partition (i.e., whose grandparents were born during the partition). We show that the scar from partition is long-lasting, as the present generation is still living under its influence. More importantly, our results reveal the different adaptation strategies of ethnic and cultural groups in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the impact of natural disasters experienced in the early life of central bankers to assess their reaction to present‐day similar events. We use a panel dataset covering 68 (developed and developing) countries, for the period 2000 Q1 to 2017 Q4, to examine how the very‐short‐run dynamics of inflation is affected by the (actual) natural disasters, and how past experiences affect the immediate reaction of central bankers to these shocks. Our results reveal that the effect of early‐life experiences is significant: central bankers who have been exposed to disasters in early life tend to manage inflation in a more conservative way in the very‐short‐run. The effect disappears over the course of one year, and central bankers with superior voting power have a larger influence on outcomes. Younger central bankers are more conservative than older ones, which may reveal that the early‐life disasters' impact decays over time. The European Central Bank (ECB) appears immune to such influences, in conformity with expectations given the ECB's federal architecture and the size of the area it administers. The behavior revealed by our results thus signifies that central banks tend, on average to avoid any inflationary bias, inducing that the long‐run impact of a disaster suffered in the formative years of an individual can bring socially positive consequences, when such an individual becomes governor of her country's central bank. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We demonstrate that even though during WWII the interest rate was close to zero supporting the financing of the military effort, dissent inside the FOMC occurred with a similar frequency to other policy episodes. Our analysis highlights that the debates which resulted in dissents turned around two broad issues: the size of the Fed's balance sheet as well as the functioning of and communication with financial markets. Thus, we argue that the conventional view depicting the Fed as merely accommodating treasury needs should be revised. Our detailed investigation of dissents emphasises the modernity of the objections raised by Fed officials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Politicians are always seeking popularity, and they use several tools to try to influence their approval rate. We investigate the dynamic relationship between French executive politicians' approval rates and three types of legislative acts (laws, ordonnances, and decrees) that they can use to signal their policy stance. Given the persistent debate over causality between public opinion and policy, our results show that a strong President (in terms of popularity) can rely more on ordonnances without damaging his/her popularity. Moreover, the use of ordonnances also benefits the Prime Minister's popularity. Decrees are more beneficial to the Prime Minister than to the President. In terms of the agenda, if there is a honeymoon effect, legislative activism does nothing to prevent the fall in popularity at the end of a mandate. A winning strategy is thus to 'wait and see.' The results are robust to the inclusion of economic performance indicators, political and institutional factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how the interplay between economic incentives and social preferences transmitted by ideology plays a role in the rise and fall of communism. We introduce inequality-averse and inefficiency-averse agents and model their conflict in ideology, triggered by envy. The socioeconomic dynamics generate a pendulum-like switch from markets to a centrally planned economy abolishing private ownership, and back to restoring market incentives. The grand experiment of communism is thus characterized as leading to the discovery of a trade-off between equality and efficiency. The model also derives conditions under which the two systems converge and become stable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent crisis has given rise to proposals for the creation of a European unemployment insurance system. We simulate an EU-wide mechanism under various scenarios, varying methods of financing (common or country-specific contribution rates) and triggers for pay-outs (all time or contingent clauses). We analyse the impact of the system using different measures of stabilization under different fiscal multipliers. A system operating during bad times (periods where the increase in unemployment is large) would reduce GDP growth variability but also growth correlation among member countries. Hence, there is a trade-off between stabilization and synchronization of national business cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses network analysis to measure the position and influence of two prominent academics, James M. Buchanan and Gordon Tullock, founders of Public Choice theory. First, an account of their parallel lives is given. Second, a review of the literature and of the standard centrality measures is provided, insisting on their relevance to assess an author’s importance in a given network. Third, detailing the publication records and, overall, co-authorship networks of the two scholars, their respective influence is analyzed through the lens of network analysis. Their academic genealogy is also explored. It is shown in particular that: (1) Buchanan and Tullock’s careers followed parallel paths and co-founded Public Choice theory and the journal of the same name, although the two had few common works; (2) though being apparently very similar as to their centrality in the co-authoring network under scrutiny, their ego-networks are structured very differently, revealing diverse positions in the field and, thus, different influence on the discipline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the determinants of the support for the European Central Bank ( ECB) in the member countries of the European Monetary Union ( EMU) and their evolution from 1999 to 2015. Our contribution is to examine micro-level sociodemographic characteristics from the Eurobarometer surveys jointly with macroeconomic indicators of trust in a central bank in order to evaluate econometrically their relative importance over time. Pseudo-panel logit estimates reveal that the former have a dynamically stable, and generally stronger influence taken altogether, when compared with the latter. Interestingly, we find that while expected inflation becomes a positive determinant of trust in the ECB after the global financial crisis ( GFC), actual inflation gets no statistical significance. Having taken centre stage in the monetary policy debate in the Euro-area post- GFC and especially since 2013, excessive disinflation and risk of deflation attracted strong attention by the public and have consequently affected its perceptions about the ECB. Accordingly, our results emphasise forward lookingness of the EMU population with regard to 'deflation scares' in determining trust in the ECB, in addition to disentangling the contributions of the key individual-level sociodemographic factors, and can duly inform ECB's communication strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the implications of overconfidence when it affects a monetary policy maker. We consider two forms of overconfidence: the illusion of precision and the illusion of control. Incorporating them into a standard New Keynesian framework, we consider the optimal term length of a central banker and examine how it depends on the types and degrees of overconfidence. In particular, we show that the legal mandate should always be lengthened when these two types of biases increase by the same percentage magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11698-021-00233-6 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research looks at the determinants of the adoption of the school-rhythm reform by French municipalities. The possibility opened to mayors to adopt the reform sooner (2013) or later (2014) offers the opportunity to measure how much the interests of the children have weighted on the decision. As our results reveal strong partisan biases to be prevalent, and financial reasons to be influential, it can be affirmed that the children's interest has clearly not been the only consideration in mind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the influence of the biographical experience of monetary policy committee members on their performance in managing inflation and output volatility. Our sample covers major OECD countries in the 1999 to 2010 period. Using data envelopment analysis, we study the efficiency of monetary policy committees. Then, we look at the determinants of these performances. The results in particular show that (i) in crisis times, a smaller committee is more efficient, (ii) policymakers' background influence the performance, with a positive role for committee members coming from academia, central banks and the financial sector, although the latter lost their edge during the Great Recession. It is also shown that some committees have reduced the inefficiency created by the crisis more rapidly than others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a new database of French municipalities that covers 821 towns and two elections (2001 and 2008), we examine how the budget structure, degree of electoral competition and the economic context affect the share of votes for the incumbent. We take into account the institutional details of the two-round structure of the electoral process created by French electoral rules (dual ballot under plurality rules). We show that in the first round of the electoral process, spending on equipment (including infrastructures) can influence the voter, and that electoral competition has a strong impact on the incumbent's score. In the second round, the incumbent's vote is affected more by national considerations and local budget variables have no effect. We show that the dynamics between the first and the second rounds are intense. The results suggest that the determinants of each round's outcome in a two-round electoral process are different. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the relationship between bank transparency and efficiency. Using a unique data set for Russian banks, we find that transparency is important and that, among the dimensions of transparency, the transparency in board and management structure and process represents the most significant determinant. These results are controlled for size effects, the structure of liabilities, the structure of assets, and nonperforming loans. This highlights the role of transparency in improving efficiency, particularly in transition economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper starts by describing the composition of monetary policy committees (MPCs) in inflation-targeting and non-targeting countries. The experience of MPC members on their inflation performance is then compared, opposing inflation targeters with non-targeters. Our sample covers the major Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries, in the period 1999-2008. Our results first show that MPCs are different in inflation-targeting (versus non-targeting) countries. They also reveal that policy-makers' backgrounds influence inflation, and that the influence of MPCs' experience is much greater in inflation-targeting countries, while size effects are more important for committees that do not target inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is an empirical study of the publication records of communications to a weekly seminar, continued from 1997. We look at the quality of publications, and also at the determinants of publications. Our results offer lessons for both presenters and organizers of research seminars in academia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We contrast the influence of demography and Central Bank Independence (CBI) on inflation. The recent demographic trends in developed countries are shown to weight more on inflation than CBI, while the contrary stands for the period from 1960 to 1979. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper examines the modalities of risk sharing in the United States, and their evolution between the pre‐financial crisis period and the post‐crisis one. Reassessing the mechanisms at play in the US economy, we document a lower share of adjustment coming from capital markets, in comparison to previous estimates. The measures taken during the crisis have not impacted the absolute degree of risk sharing, although the relative size of its components has changed, with a stronger role for the federal government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]