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Purpose: This paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks and the degree of synchronization in the impulse responses of output, inflation and trade to a one standard deviation shock to non-oil commodities price index and exchange rates within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries from 1990q1 to 2020q1. Design/methodology/approach: This paper uses the structural vector autoregressive model to isolate the underlying structural shocks and compares them with the West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries. Findings: Findings from the study suggest that correlations of underlying structural shocks are more profound in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. Impulse responses of output to price and exchange rate shocks are more symmetric in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. However, impulse responses of inflation to price and exchange rate shocks are symmetric in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU and responses of trade in both sub-groups are not uniform. Practical implications: The paper concludes that the WAMZ does not constitute an Optimum Currency Area concerning the correlations of the structural shocks and output. However, it has achieved convergence in inflation and there are adequate adjustment mechanisms to shocks in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU. Therefore, the WAMZ may not suffer from joining the monetary union. Thus, economic Community of West African States may take steps to roll out the monetary union. Originality/value: The paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks, impulse responses of output and inflation to shocks to commodities price and exchange rates in the WAMZ and compares them with the WAEMU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article contributes to debates on business power, noisy politics, and right-wing populism. The populist right weakens strategies of quiet politics, which many suggest has led to a steep decline of business power. I challenge this view and argue that a combination of innovative strategies and ample financial resources allow business associations to exercise power in this environment. Drawing on new empirical evidence, the article makes three central contributions. First, I suggest that the failure of Remain business advocacy in the 2016 Brexit referendum resulted from the constraints of administrative legislation (the PPERA), weaknesses in campaigning strategies, and the CBI leadership's decision to not register as a campaign organization. Second, while my regression analysis provides some support for Culpepper's quiet politics argument, the Swiss business federation Economiesuisse has won 90% of the referendum campaigns it has led, including many referendums with high issue salience against right-wing populists. Third, Economiesuisse shows that business strategies of 'loud voice' can be successful. With money and innovative public-facing campaigning strategies, business organizations can win in noisy environments and against right-wing populists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The financial haemorrhaging of lower income countries in the form of capital flight is a leading cause of global economic inequality. On an annual basis, trillions of dollars bypass the already starved fiscal spaces of nations mired in poverty, making their way instead to lucrative offshore bank accounts governed by secrecy jurisdictions. The present article relates this phenomenon to the institutional architecture of the global financial system and provides causal evidence that structural adjustment programmes implemented at the behest of international financial organizations amplify such capital flight. In particular, by isolating exogenous variation in policy conditionalities through the use of instrumental variables, we find that trade liberalization, financial sector reforms and privatization measures mandated by the International Monetary Fund in developing contexts substantially increase financial outflows occurring via current and capital account transactions. Our findings thus document the contribution that structural adjustment makes to an underappreciated facet of contemporary global inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides an overview of the macroeconomic challenges facing the 10 countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It discusses various macroeconomic indicators and the importance of achieving high levels of economic growth. The article also explores ASEAN's participation in Regional Value Chains (RVCs) and Global Value Chains (GVCs), particularly in the automotive and electronics industries. It examines the adoption of inflation targeting frameworks by ASEAN countries and evaluates their macroeconomic performance. The text further analyzes the fiscal sustainability of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, providing policy recommendations to enhance revenue collection and reduce subsidies. It also discusses the challenges faced by Vietnam's economy and suggests policy measures to overcome them. The article touches on economic issues in Cambodia and Laos, including technology spillovers, Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) implementation, and financial system reform. The perspectives presented offer insights into these countries' economic situations and potential policy measures. [Extracted from the article]

This paper examines the macroeconomic and development policies to spur economic integration and growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). It reviews how economic transformation and integration have fueled growth and job creation in the region. ASEAN's increased participation in global and regional value chains, with the People's Republic of China (PRC) as a regional hub, laid the solid foundation of regional production networks. However, with the changing role of the PRC in global value chains, the region needs to renew policy initiatives to address the development challenges and seize new growth opportunities with its single market goals. The analysis suggests the region requires strategic plans for infrastructure development, digitalization, and greater integration reinforced by the removal of trade barriers, increased labor mobility, and foreign direct investment mobilization. The region's successful future also depends on cooperative policy efforts around developing e‐government and digital value chains, strengthening micro‐, small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises and startups, and building smart cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of designing effective trade recovery measures in response to global health events (GHEs). This study combines international trade risk management theory and multi-case comparative analysis of past GHEs to present a theoretical framework for designing national trade recovery measures for future events. Results: The research finds that during GHEs, trade risks shift to fundamental uncertainty, requiring spatial–temporal-subject dimension recovery measures. The study suggests changing the focus of trade recovery policy design from emergency-oriented and single-dimension measures to reserve-oriented and enduring-effect measures of comprehensive dimensions at micro- and macroeconomic levels. Conclusion: The study contributes to the debate on managing trade risks in times of crisis, where there is a need to develop effective trade recovery measures that account for the complexities of global trade and the unique challenges of GHEs. The findings provide practical guidance for trade officials and policymakers to design measures in response to GHEs to improve a country's overall trade recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the club convergence of Financial integration (FI) in the case of 60 countries from 1970 to 2015. FI plays a vital role in economic growth through sharing the risk between countries, cross-border capital association, investment and financial information. It also leads to the efficient allocation of capital and capital accumulation, thereby improving the systematic growth and productivity of the economy. Literature on examining the convergence hypothesis of FI is scarce. Design/methodology/approach: This study applies the clustering algorithm to identify club convergence, advanced by the Phillips and Sul test, which enables the identification of multiple steady states or club convergence, unlike beta and sigma convergences. Findings: The findings indicate the non-convergence when all 60 countries were taken together. This highlights that the selected countries' have unique transition paths in terms of FI. Hence, the authors implement the clustering algorithm, and the estimation shows that 56 countries are categorised into three different clubs. However, for the rest of four countries, the results are sort of ambiguous, favouring neither convergence nor divergence. Practical implications: On the basis of three country clubs, Club 1 presents the model countries such as the Netherlands, Singapore and Switzerland. The Club 2 and Club 3 countries can start making moves towards the model countries by making policy adaptations for trade, finance and business facilitation. Originality/value: The existing literature provides a plethora of studies investigating the convergence of stock markets, exchange rates and equity markets, but studies on the convergence of FI, particularly across the countries, are scarce. This study contributes by bridging this gap. The study is unique in its type as it takes into account the multiple steady states or club convergence. This study also contributes in policymaking by suggesting Club 1 countries (the Netherlands, Singapore and Switzerland) as the model ones for the FI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides an accessible overview of the current state of ASEAN, focusing on trade integration and the role of regional and global value chains, with particular attention to China. The ASEAN economies have generally performed well and have benefited from technological and policy advances, as well as their proximity to China. The article discusses the deepening of regional integration, particularly in sectors such as electronics and automotive. It also highlights the policy challenges that ASEAN faces, including the need for enforcing commitments and addressing collective action problems. The article raises questions about the adequacy of ASEAN's model and the role of regional commitments, while acknowledging the potential impact of national-level reforms and exposure to other countries' experiences. [Extracted from the article]

The article discusses the economic integration and growth within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the challenges and opportunities it faces. It highlights the role of China in ASEAN's trade and the progress of global and regional value chains in the region. The article also emphasizes the importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) in driving economic growth in ASEAN, particularly from East Asian economies. It suggests policy recommendations for sustaining growth and integration, including infrastructure development, digitalization, and liberalization of services trade. The article concludes by mentioning the potential impacts of the US-China trade and technology disputes on ASEAN and the need for further research on growth drivers and convergence among ASEAN member states. [Extracted from the article]

COVID-19 highlighted the weaknesses in the supply chain. Many have argued that a more resilient or robust supply chain is needed. But what does a robust supply chain mean? And how do firms' decisions change when taken that approach? This paper studies a very stylized model of a supply chain, where we study how the decision of a multinational corporation changes in the presence of uncertainty. The two standard theories of supply chain are just-in-time and just-in-case. Just-in-time argues in favor of pursuing efficiency, while just-in-case studies how such decision changes when the firm faces idiosyncratic risk. We find that a robust supply chain is very different specially in the presence of systemic shocks. In this case, firms need to concentrate on the worst-case. This strategy implies a supply chain where the allocation of resources and capabilities does not correspond to the standard theories studied in economics, but follow a heuristic behavioral rule called "probability matching." It has been found in nature and in experimental research that subjects appeal to probability matching when seeking survival. We find that a robust supply chain will reproduce this behavioral outcome. In fact, a multinational optimizing under uncertainty follows a probability matching which leads to an allocation that is suboptimal from the individual producer point of view, but rules out the possibility of supply disruptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Latin American debt crisis consumed the 1980s and was not restricted to Latin America. Starting from the August 1982 Mexican weekend, the crisis had three phases: Concerted Lending (1982-5), Baker Plan (1985-9) and Brady Plan (1989 to mid 1990s). This article describes the evolution of the debt strategy and the road to embracing debt write-downs at the end of the decade. In the absence of an external coordinating mechanism, four groups of parties had to reach agreement on any change in the strategy: the borrowing countries, their commercial bank lenders, the home-country authorities of those lenders, and the International Monetary Fund as the principal international institution. Each group could effectively veto any change in the strategy. This need for consensus is lesson number one from the 1980s for today. Lesson number two is that political economy aspects dictated that the strategy be implemented on a case-by-case basis. The article concludes with an application of these lessons to a similar, but even more global, potential debt crisis in the wake of the COVID pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The aim of the "One Belt and One Road" (OBOR) project proposed by China is to encourage extension of global value chains, facilitate regional integration and increase efficient resource allocation. In recent times, scientific literature has examined the investment decisions of the OBOR investment and how it will affect the governmental policies, environmental initiatives, and bilateral flow of economic resources. Current study, based on Web of Science database, uses bibliometric methodology to map the research trends in OBOR publications. We contribute in the economic literature in the associated fields of OBOR publications in the following ways: (1) identify the most influential researchers, articles, and academic institutions, (2) mapping the interdisciplinary character of OBOR investments and its bibliometric similarity to adjacent fields, (3) visualize nature and trends of the research field, and (4) synthesizing future research areas. Although OBOR initiative has received considerable traction, but to this date, there is no bibliometric study on this topic. The findings of current study will help policymakers and academics to navigate the OBOR literature, provide a systematic basis for developing the field, and suggest promising future research avenues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The root cause of the current crisis in the United Kingdom is British Exceptionalism which assumed its classic form in the wake of the Napoleonic Wars. During the nineteenth century, the British state focused upon the creation of a global empire and by the 1890s was in a state of 'splendid isolation' with respect to Europe. Simultaneously, the rise of Germany meant that Britain could not ignore Europe. During the first half of the twentieth century, Britain became involved in two major wars, which to a considerable extent revolved around the need to curb German power. After the First World War, Britain wanted to focus upon her global interests and this was reflected in her reluctance to embrace integrationist initiatives such as the Briand Plan. Although the Second World War destroyed the basis of Britain's imperium, the feeling that British superiority had saved the world only reinforced the sense of exceptionalism by adding to it a sense of 'pride'. After 1945 British power steadily waned and the British state came increasingly under pressure from Washington to join the European Economic Community. The potential of Germany to dominate this grouping and British apprehension of such a development led to prejudice in respect of Germany which later transmitted itself into prejudice against Europe as a whole. Once inside the European Community, Britain accordingly became an awkward partner. Never entirely comfortable within the European Union, a secessionist movement grew which ultimately forced the referendum of 2016. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effects on and responses of five middle‐income Southeast Asian economies to the current global environment of authoritarian populism, the retreat from economic liberalism, and the appeal of anti‐globalization movements. While the political histories and institutional capabilities of the five – Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam – vary greatly, these economies have a history of at least moderately fast economic growth for extended periods, and of increasing regional and global economic integration. We argue that most of the factors behind the discontent with globalization in the rich economies are not present to the same degree in these countries, and that there has therefore been no major retreat from the economic policy settings that have underpinned their past economic success. However, there are no grounds for complacency. Economic growth is slowing in some of the countries, economic insecurity remains widespread, and the development of durable independent institutions has lagged economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we first develop an original theory in which, based on their individual skills and the quality of their business, entrepreneurs can keep their original business (and thus remain novice entrepreneurs), start and keep a new business in the same or another sector along their current business (therefore becoming portfolio entrepreneurs), transfer or shut their original business down to either start a new one (turning themselves into serial entrepreneurs), or enter the labor market as wage workers. We then use the insights from our theory to develop three main hypotheses that are finally tested for a 10-year panel dataset (2001 to 2010) of more than 4000 Vietnamese manufacturing firms. We estimate an occupational choice model and a survival model and find that (i) a greater endowment of human capital is associated with a higher likelihood of a business owner to become a serial or a portfolio entrepreneur; (ii) a higher quality of the new business is associated to a higher likelihood that it is run by any type of habitual entrepreneur. Particularly, high entrepreneurial skills together with a high-quality business positively influence the likelihood of an individual to be serial or portfolio entrepreneur; (iii) ceteris paribus, firms run by serial or portfolio entrepreneurs tend to stay in business longer, although high-quality ones run by novice entrepreneurs endowed with high entrepreneurial skills are those with the lowest probability to leave the market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the inception of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 1995, member countries have been heavily relying on the organisation's Dispute Settlement System (DSS). Exploiting a new database on WTO litigations between 1995 and 2014, this paper describes disputes initiated over this period and identifies potential sources of bias concerning the participation of developing countries. The analysis builds on three different models to determine country i's probability of initiating a dispute against country j. Either it depends on the two countries' structure of trade (the rules-based model), or it is also affected by country i's or country j's specific characteristics (the unilateral power-based model), or it is also affected by bilateral economic and trade relations between countries i and j (the bilateral power-based model). We find that country i's structure of trade with j plays an important role in explaining the probability that i initiates a dispute against j under the DSS. We also find clear evidence with regard to the importance of two independent variables: first the legal capacity of i (a variable related to the unilateral power-based model) and second the trade retaliatory capacity of i against j (a variable related to the bilateral power-based). Almost all these results hold when testing for both the likelihood of initiating a dispute and for the number of disputes initiated before the WTO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider a tax-funded policy of admitting and integrating asylum seekers in a country in which the incomes of the native inhabitants are differentiated; for the sake of simplicity, we assume that there are just two groups of native inhabitants: high-income natives and low-income natives. As a consequence of their social preferences, the latter experience disutility caused by relative deprivation. Because integrating the asylum seekers into the mainstream labor force and thereby into the income distribution of the native population "from below" reduces the relative deprivation of the low-income natives, admitting and integrating asylum seekers can be socially beneficial. We derive the optimal number of asylum seekers by maximizing the natives' social welfare function that incorporates these considerations. We find that as long as the cost of admission and integration is not exceptionally high, this number is strictly positive. We then address the issue of how to distribute a given number of asylum seekers among several receiving countries. We find that, rather than allocating the asylum seekers in proportion to the population of each country, aggregate welfare will be maximized through an allocation that is increasing in the within-country difference between the incomes of the high-income natives and the low-income natives. Additionally, we formulate conditions under which admission of the optimal number of asylum seekers is socially preferable to a direct transfer of income from high-income natives to low-income natives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We set up a two-party electoral competition model in a two-dimensional policy space with campaign contributions by an interest group that wants to promote a certain agenda. Assuming that voters are influenced by campaign spending for/against candidates, we analyze incentive-compatible contracts between the interest group and the candidates on agenda policy positions and campaign contributions. The interest group asks the candidates to commit to a level of agenda promotion in exchange for campaign contributions, letting them compete over the other (ideological) dimension only. It is shown that as the agenda is pushed further by the interest group, ideological policy polarization and campaign contributions surge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the international steel market has shown increasingly strong cross-regional correlation. To better understand the price trends of various markets, it is necessary to identify their inherent price spillovers. This paper combines a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity Baba–Engle–Kraft–Kroner (GARCH-BEKK) model and complex network motifs to explore the price fluctuations among international steel markets. The study selects steel markets in 12 countries and regions and uses daily data on import and export prices from January 2009 to September 2017 to analyze eight steel products. The results show that spillovers are associated with geographical location, market development, product type and status. Spillovers mostly occur between buyer's markets; additionally, the Asian market, especially the East Asian market, is in most cases the recipient of spillover, whereas the European Union (EU) market is in most cases the sender of spillover effects. Developed markets have clear spillover effects on emerging markets, sheet steel products have clear spillover effects on profile steel products, and the prices of midstream and downstream products in the industrial chain are the most influenced. This paper examines international steel market relationships from the perspective of price transmission, and the results can help manage and prevent large-scale economic risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article identifies divergent views on the nature of the changing order and argues that collaborative rather than hegemonic leadership is necessary to sustain global peace, prosperity and justice. This collaborative leadership would increase the number of actors with effective voice. It calls the evolving order "multiplex" because of the overlapping yet divergent interests of the actors involved and "G‐Plus" signaling the importance of the increasing number and diversity of actors. It does so in the context of two of the many challenges facing this multiplex G‐Plus world: sustaining economic prosperity and coordinating global trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After significant progress as an immediate result of the euro crisis, the drive to complete Europe's Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has decelerated. While there is a broad consensus in Europe that EMU needs further development, the exact nature and timing of the reform agenda remains controversial. This paper makes an analytical contribution to the ongoing discussion about the euro area's institutional setup. An in-depth look at the remaining gaps in the euro's architecture, and the trade-offs that repairing them would present, suggests the need for long-run progress along three mutually supportive tracks. The first is more fiscal risk sharing, which will help enhance the credibility of the sovereign "no-bailout" rule. The second is complementary financial sector reforms to delink sovereigns and banks. And the third is more effective rules to discourage moral hazard. Helpfully, this evolution would ensure that financial markets provide more incentives for fiscal discipline than they do now. Introducing more fiscal union comes with myriad legal, technical, operational, and political problems, however, raising questions well beyond the domain of economics. These difficulties notwithstanding, without decisive progress to foster fiscal risk sharing, EMU will continue to face existential risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article introduces the special issue on International Organizations in a New Era of Populist Nationalism. The special issue aims to clarify the stakes for and the politics of international organizations in a time of rising populist nationalism around the world. In this introductory essay, we attempt to disentangle the rise of populism and a resurgence of nationalism as distinct processes and concepts. While neither force is new, we observe significant variation across countries in the type of level of nationalist and populist objections to international institutions. We develop a typology for thinking about how and when populism, nationalism, or their combination might have different effects on international cooperation and organizations. Finally, we review the specific article contributions to the special issue and how they fit with the themes developed in this essay. The final section concludes with questions and ideas for future research on the topic that will enhance our understanding of the complex challenges – and potential opportunities – for international cooperation and organizations in the years ahead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The City of London has been the global leader for the provision of international banking services since the 1980s when Thatcher-era deregulation, followed by the EU single market program, stimulated big international FDI inflows - mainly of US banks - into the UK. The "single passport" rule allowed international banks in the UK to serve the whole of the EU28 market from London whose supply-side dynamics contributed to economic growth in the UK and a rising output share of the UK banking system in British GDP. With the expected BREXIT, there are serious challenges for the City since the passporting of banks will end and the regulatory framework will be adjusted; EU equivalence rules for UK banks that might be valid after the implementation of BREXIT cannot be a substitute for passporting so that lower FDI inflows and higher FDI outflows in the banking sector should be expected; inflow dynamics should also be shaped by international M&A dynamics influenced by the real Pound depreciation in 2016, while the prospects of reduced EU market access post-BREXIT also became relevant in 2017/18 and should influence the FDI dynamics of the UK - a similar pattern might occur in the BREXIT implementation year (i.e. 2019) and the following adjustment period where the change in City banks' access to the single market will matter; as regards the latter, quasi-tariff-jumping FDI outflows from the UK can be expected where the FDI of City of London banks could go primarily to the EU27/Eurozone or the US. The empirical findings confirm the expected FDI pattern for the UK banking sector - overall FDI inflows in the wake of the BREXIT referendum have increased, in line with the Froot-Stein effect, while FDI inflows to the UK banking sector have declined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the prospects for an ordoliberal reform of the European Union in order to tackle its multiple crises. It shows what an ordoliberal European Union would have to look like and examines the constraints its implementation faces. Three reasons are identified that make an ordoliberal reform of the EU at present unlikely. First, in the EU's most powerful member state, Germany, where ordoliberalism has its origins, economic policy adheres increasingly less to this strain of economic thinking. Second, given the primacy of European integration in domestic politics, Germany values European unity higher than economic principles. Third, once Brexit is complete Germany will lack influential allies for an ordoliberal reshaping of the EU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to offer a critical and broad perspective on how transnational companies (TNCs) behave in the global context, focussing its attention on the controversial issue of tax avoidance in the UK. It pursues this aim by taking into account not only economic globalisation, mobility of capital and tax havens but also ethics and corporate social responsibility.Design/methodology/approach This paper seeks to provide an interdisciplinary viewpoint drawing not only from well-established scholarly literature but also from real cases and evidence, such as the scandals involving corporate giants, such as Starbucks, Google and Amazon in the UK.Findings This paper highlights the fundamental interplay and mutual aid of ethics and international laws, underlining the increasing importance of corporate social responsibility principles in today's business practices. However, it also emphasises the need of reinforcing these principles with either regional or universalistic legal approaches to tackle TNCs' misconduct in the international arena.Practical implications This paper suggests that by establishing and enforcing international business laws, increasingly aligned with ethical principles, the gap between ethics and legislation can be consistently bridged. Hence, TNCs' behaviour could be more efficiently controlled.Originality/value The paper contributes to the literature on modern economic globalisation by providing a comprehensive and integrative perspective on TNCs' behaviour, accounting for the interplay of socio-ethical, legal and business principles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Am 20. Juni 1948 fand im Westen des besetzten Deutschlands eine Wirtschafts- und Währungsreform statt, mit Freigabe der Preise und Einführung der Deutschen Mark (DM). Das Datum markiert den Beginn des marktwirtschaftlichen Wiederaufstiegs der westlichen Besatzungszonen und der späteren Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Das Wirtschaftssystem, das mit der Reform eingeführt wurde, die „Soziale Marktwirtschaft", bewährte sich. Dies gilt für die beiden Dekaden der dynamischen Re-Integration Deutschlands in die Weltwirtschaft der fünfziger und sechziger Jahre; es gilt aber auch – trotz zeitweise aufgestautem Reformbedarf – im Wesentlichen für die Zeit des Strukturwandels ab 1973 im Gefolge der beiden globalen Ölkrisen. Auch die deutsche Wiedervereinigung 1990, insbesondere die Architektur der im Juni 1990 geschaffenen Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion, wurde von den historischen Lehren Westdeutschlands tief geprägt. Der darauf folgende Aufbau Ost war dabei im Wesentlichen erfolgreich, wenn auch Flurschäden von 40 Jahren Planwirtschaft und Isolierung vom Weltmarkt für die ostdeutsche Wirtschaft auf absehbare Zeit verbleiben. Karl-Heinz Paqué zieht eine insgesamt positive Bilanz der vergangenen 70 Jahre. Er deutet aber die Entwicklungen der Jahrzehnte nach 1948 und 1990 als Schritte und Stufen einer Rückkehr Deutschlands in die Rolle des wirtschaftlichen Wachstumspols in der Mitte Europas, wie sie bereits vor dem Ersten Weltkrieg angelegt war, aber in der Zwischenkriegszeit durch ungünstige politische Rahmenbedingungen und in den beiden Weltkriegen durch Gewalt, Zerstörung und Autarkiepolitik nicht zum Zuge kam. Die Vorstellung von einem radikalen Bruch, wie sie bekennende Ordnungspolitiker und Ordnungstheoretiker in der deutschen Tradition pflegten, ist insofern nicht haltbar. Sie liefert gleichwohl mehr als einen politischen Mythos, weil sie die Bedeutung des Vertrauens in marktwirtschaftliche sowie rechts- und sozialstaatliche Prinzipien in den Vordergrund rückt. Mit Blick auf die anstehenden Herausforderungen der Zukunft – demografischer Wandel, Digitalisierung und Globalisierung – bleiben diese Prinzipien von überragender Bedeutung. Sie müssen aber zeitgemäß weiterentwickelt werden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To join the Eurozone (EZ), a candidate country has to fulfil five nominal Maastricht convergence criteria and ensure compliance of national legislation with the acquis communautaire. With this regard special difficulties pose the fiscal criterion relating to the maximum allowed budget deficit of 3 per cent of GDP. If it is not met, the European Commission launches the Excessive Deficit Procedure. Currently, such formula applies to France, Spain and the United Kingdom. Although the issue is not absolutely certain, one can assume that euro will weather the present difficulties and will come out stronger, though the economically unjustified Euro scepticism of some countries is not helping. It may be expected that in the 2020s the European Monetary Union will be joined by all countries that are still using their national currencies and that the EU will be extended to include new member states, enlarging the euro area further. In this article authors are discussing the issue whether Poland will join the EZ in the coming years, considering the challenges of meeting all Maastricht criteria, on the one hand, and the reluctance of the government to give up the national currency, on the other. A mixed method combining the results of qualitative and quantitative research has been used to empirically verify the research question presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines three historical monetary unions: the Latin Monetary Union (LMU), the Scandinavian Monetary Union (SMU), and the Austro-Hungarian Monetary Union (AHMU) in an attempt to derive possible lessons for the European Monetary Union (EMU). The term ‘monetary union’ can be defined either narrowly or broadly depending on how closely it conforms to Mundell’s notion of ‘Optimal Currency Area’. After examining each of the historical monetary unions from this perspective, the article concludes that none of them ever truly conformed to Mundell’s concept, nor does the EMU. Nevertheless, the article argues that some lessons may be learned from these historical experiences. First, it is necessary that there exist robust institutions such as a common central bank and a unified fiscal policy in order to withstand external shocks. The three early unions could not withstand the shock of WWI. Another important lesson is that continuing national rivalries can undermine any monetary union. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The paper provides an overview of changes in the US policy stance toward China that have resulted in the currently unstable economic and trade relationship between the two countries. It reviews the trade and economic relationship between China and the US during the first year of the Trump Administration, summarizes the systematic changes in trade and external economic policies adopted by the Trump Administration in general, and particularly toward China, and observes the implementation of a hawkish trade policy that ignited dispute between the US and China. The main factors shaping the current situation are examined, including structural difficulties in the US economy, the characteristics of the Chinese institutional setting and policies that have become increasingly unacceptable to the US, the specific personal beliefs and positions of President Trump and his main aides in the economic and trade team, and short‐term factors in the US internal political arena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Neither the Chinese nor US economic systems will fundamentally change as a result of overt trade conflict. The challenge for policy‐relevant economics is to design a regime for China–US commerce that accepts the co‐existence but also addresses underlying disputes. Many important China–US disputes, notably those over intellectual property protection and state subsidies, cannot be resolved by the World Trade Organization, thus new institutions must be built. Economics‐based regime principles should entail recognition that: the China–US bilateral trade imbalance is unique mainly because of macroeconomic and financial factors, not trade; agreements should restrict commercial and government behaviors, not target economic outcomes; Chinese companies must compete and be allowed to succeed in any sector, including high‐technology; China is not entitled to US‐owned technology, thus intellectual property rights must be enforced; and the US Government should support an increased role for China in global economic governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the present paper, we discuss three unintended consequences of European Integration; the division between the pro‐ and anti‐integrationists, doubts on the benefits of the free movements and the burden of the welfare state. Since 2017, Europe has regained confidence and optimism has returned due to sustained economic recovery and election victories of prointegration politicians, most notably in France. The European Union is embarking on co‐operation in defense and security, providing a new reason to support integration. Uncertainty over Brexit and immigration remain among the causes for grave concern. But Europe and Japan have taken a joint stance against protectionism, while Asia is yet to decide whether to do so as an integrated entity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mission of diplomats have often been characterized as promoting peace while advancing national interests. Ambassadorial appointments are also portrayed as patronage, used as a reward for domestic political favors. Here, we develop an original database of the tenure of US ambassadors from sources at the US State Department to better understand the determinants of ambassadorial careers. We assess the tenure of both political appointees and career diplomats based on four factors: (1) Political factors, such as leader turnover in the US and the host nation; (2) Personal characteristics of the ambassador, such as age and gender; (3) Characteristics of the host nation such as population, wealth, trade and alignment with the US; and (4) Performance measures, such as improvements in economic, diplomatic and security relations. US Presidential turnover has the greatest effect on ambassadorial tenure, especially for political appointees. Performance measures have little impact on the tenure or future career prospects of ambassadors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent boom of investor-state disputes filed under international investment agreements has fueled a controversial academic and policy debate. We study the impact of these compensation claims on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to the responding host country. Our econometric analysis focuses on differences in the FDI response from BIT-partner and non-partner countries of developing host countries. This approach allows us not only to distinguish competing hypotheses about BIT function, but also to address endogeneity concerns in earlier studies. We find that BITs stimulate bilateral FDI flows from partner countries—but only so long as the developing host country has not had a claim brought against it to arbitration. Our results provide an additional explanation for the policy-changes observed in many states subsequent to their first experience of an investor-state dispute. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, in the wake of accelerated globalization, the issue of output coupling/decoupling has assumed considerable importance in academic as well as in policy debates. Special attention has been focussed on the following four issues (i) whether economies are getting increasingly synchronized in their cyclical behaviour and in particular whether EMEs are getting synchronized with the advanced group of countries (or otherwise) and/or among themselves ? (ii) whether similar synchronization is also evident in the growth profiles of EMEs and advanced economies ? (iii) what are the main factors driving this two types of synchronization ? and (iv) are the factors driving growth synchronization different from those driving business cycle co-movements? This is a single-country study which examines the decoupling issue from the perspective of the Indian economy over a fairly long time span viz. 1961-2008, dividing the same into three sub-periods characterized by relative insularity (1961-1978), restricted globalization (1979-1993) and full-scale globalization (1994-2008). Among the important potential determinants of co-movements suggested by the available literature are inter-industry and intra-industry trade intensities, co-ordination of fiscal and monetary policy, financial integration etc. Our key finding is that the economic determinants for India's cyclical synchronization differ across short (16-32 months) and medium cycles (32-64 months) and vis-a-vis growth spillovers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper aims to explore the competition in exports among ASEAN + 3 members by applying the export similarity index for the disaggregation export data from 1990 to 2014. We also discuss the changes of comparative advantage of ASEAN + 3's exports through the revealed comparative advantage index and its relation with similarity index. First, the results support the idea that export similarity varies among ASEAN + 3 member states over the period 1990–2014. Second, we find evidence of several export communities. In particular, five countries, notably China, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea, with the highest similarity index form an export community mainly in the electronic microcircuits and parts of office machines. Third, the revealed comparative advantage seems to be the key factor defining the similarity level of exports. Finally, the revealed comparative advantage analysis partly allows us to verify the Ricardo's theory and New Trade theory in the context of ASEAN + 3 trade integration. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

An editorial is presented on Global inequalities being now as extreme at the peak of Western imperialism in the early 20th century. Topics include within-country inequalities growing even faster with income and wealth inequalities exploding at the very top of the distribution and private wealth; and cause of shortages in underfunded public health systems or due to other illnesses and diseases being not treated in time.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims to improve cross-border infrastructure to reduce transportation costs across a massive geographical area between China and Europe. We estimate how much trade might be created among Belt and Road (B&R) countries as a consequence of the reduction in transportation costs (both railway and maritime) and find that European Union countries, especially landlocked countries, will benefit considerably. This is also true for Eastern Europe and Central Asia and, to a lesser extent, South-East Asia. In contrast, if China were to seek to establish a free trade area within the B&R region, EU member states would benefit less, while Asia would benefit more. Xi Jinping's current vision for the B&R, centered on improving transport infrastructure, is advantageous for Europe as far as trade creation is concerned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK's decision to leave the European Union will have a wide-ranging effect on the British economy, but the scale and sequencing of the likely effects are hard to gauge. The uncertainties surrounding how a country separates itself from a regional economic bloc have posed challenges to the economics profession about how best to analyse the many consequences. The paper discusses the main lines of relevant economic argumentation, and reviews the evidence from studies of the likely effects of 'Brexit'. It then considers how the UK's economic linkages with the EU might evolve and examines some of the ensuing political economy challenges. The concluding section ponders the role of economists in so contentious a political development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Until recently, it has been argued in economic theory that regional integration and trade agreements among developing countries may achieve negative growth effects. This study tests empirically the effects of such South-South agreements on growth and convergence. All three world regions in question are considered: South America, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. A comprehensive panel data analysis is conducted that distinguishes between the problems of testing for stronger growth and accelerated convergence, respectively. The data indicate that the considered South-South agreements promote both. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is, above all, a connectivity project. As connectivity requires financial support, in the past few years China has undertaken several institution-building activities at the national and international level, mainly in the financial and economic sector, showing a new propensity to influence global economic governance. In particular, the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has drawn attention worldwide. How does this institution-building process connect with BRI? Are these institutions just a vehicle for exporting China's capital and overcapacity, or do they signal a potential wider challenge to the post-World War II liberal international order? By analyzing the first loans approved by the bank, the present paper argues that far from representing a China-led challenge to the Western-led liberal order, the AIIB, while promoting Chinese commercial and geopolitical interests, shows the resilience of the global financial regime created by the West. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article aims to highlight Russian approaches to Chinese One Belt-One Road initiative. It examines possible opportunities and challenges for co-development of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Belt project. Both projects and their co-development may reduce the uncertainty in Eurasia, caused by significant structural changes in international relations and the world economy, the emergence of new trade regimes and the erosion of leadership in international affairs. Russian interests in this regard are determined by the need for modernization and long-term development, which could also help to address acute security issues. These particular factors encouraged Russia to come up with an ambitious plan of the Extensive Eurasian Partnership, although the prospects of its implementation currently are uncertain. The present article argues that the success of Russia-China collaboration in Eurasia will depend crucially on the future dynamics of the Eurasian integration, as well as on the agreement to co-develop the Eurasian Economic Union and the Belt Initiative with concrete and mutually beneficial projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An expanding globalization causes global failures, similar to economy failures encountered in the national economic system. Global failures take other forms and are likely to be more severe in the future because of the entry in the world scene of leading countries that have distinctly different economic systems (for instance, China, India) from leading incumbents (US, EU), and because the new competition (country cum system) is likely to be perceived by newcomers and incumbents as a zero sum game. It is crucial in such circumstances to have a design of world governance that can respond adequately to global failures. The G-20 is one such design, but this is handicapped by its narrow scope (i.e. GDP) and undemocratic composition (selection of individual countries and not regional representation, next to being inconsistent and out of date). The paper formulates and applies an index of influence potential that combines population and GDP, and which is measurable at the region and country levels. The paper projects these applications for the near future, comes up with more representative participations by regions/countries in world governance and explores effects of the changing distribution of influence potential on global development and economic systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In completing a competitors’ analysis in the railway sector by using the “Knowledge House” method, there is frequently a problem of data and information accessibility. The quality of primary information has direct influence on the quality of analytical conclusions. One more condition for the qualitative application of this method is the intellectual capital and experience of the analyst. One should note that in this regard we face another problem, that of selection of proper personnel, on the qualification of whom depends the accuracy of the evaluation and final results, on the basis of which strategic decisions are taken. The main aim of the paper is to assess the opportunities for applications of competitive intelligence methods in the railway sector. The study is using “Knowledge House”, DWS, DMS, DSS methodologies. Having analysed the scientific works the direct scientific sources of information, which are oriented to the application of the methods of competitive intelligence to the railway sector, have not been identified. The paper is absolutely original in that until now the competitive intelligence techniques have not been applied for the railway sector companies. Considering the fact that foreign companies, which compete for freighting at the international level, are regarded as the main competitors of the railway sector, the use of the methods of the competitive intelligence becomes more important while fighting for the part of the market. The competitive intelligence methods and their application to the railway sector companies are little studied. In accordance with application of the relevant methods in other sectors, it can be assumed that these innovative approaches could have a positive impact on the competitiveness of companies in the railway sector and their income. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to deploy an export dependency index to identify the sectors and countries in Latin America which are most exposed to fluctuations in Chinese demand. Bilateral trade between China and Latin America has grown very quickly in the past decade. As a consequence, economic relationships with Latin America intensified tremendously, as growing demand for resources drove China into relatively unexplored frontiers.Design/methodology/approach The Index measures the relative exposure of Latin American exporters to shifts in demand from China and is scaled from 0 to 1 (the higher the score, the more exposed an exporter is to disruptions of trade with China). The authors undertook the analysis using six-digit trade figures from the United Nations COMTRADE database (Harmonized System 2007 nomenclature) to ensure granularity and consistency and contrasted their results across two points in time, 2008 and 2014. The analysis was very comprehensive, covering the products that accounted for 80 per cent or more of all exports to China in 2014, for all countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.Findings According to our estimates, dependency on China increased overboard across Latin America for all countries and all sectors between 2008 and 2014. Absolute dependency levels were highest in Costa Rica, Colombia, Uruguay, Venezuela, Brazil, Panama, Peru, Chile, Guyana and Argentina. Of these, the largest exporters to China, namely, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Colombia and Venezuela, featured high dependencies concentrated around just four commodities: soy in the form of soybeans and soybean oil; crude oil; copper in the form of copper ore, copper cathodes and unrefined copper; and iron ore. These four commodities accounted for 80 per cent of the regions’ total exports to China.Originality/value This is one of few studies that look into Latin America’s commodity export dependency on China at such granular level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The article deals with the estimation of import intensities of exports, final consumption expenditures and gross fixed capital formation. It uses the input-output methodology of computing direct and indirect imports to the final demand components, which compares with regression estimates. Unlike the widely used turnover approach, the results contribute fundamentally to knowledge about the genuine openness of the Czech economy with regard to how much value-added is exported. In 2015, the highest import intensity for exports amounting to 52%, closely followed by 49% for investments. Household consumption worked with 41% import intensity, while general government consumption expenditures showed the lowest import intensity of 16%. Based on our input-output findings, the true openness of the Czech economy can be revealed. While turnover of exports to GDP reached 80% in 2019, the value-added approach showed only a half, i.e., 40% value-added was exported. It implies a contra-intuitive conclusion that even in a relatively small and highly integrated country into the globalized economy, there is a 60% majority of the non-tradeable goods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article studies the spillovers of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) from developed economies to China in terms of the source, extent and persistence by estimating a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model with both financial and trade variables acting as the transmission channels. Our findings confirm the existence of international transmissions of policy uncertainty, while the patterns differ markedly. The US EPU appears to be the most significant cause of the fall of export, industrial production, equity price and exchange rate, meanwhile, the EU EPU is also to be blamed for the depreciation of RMB. In contrast to industrial production, which shows the largest negative impact, Chinese inflation increases to a relatively smaller extent with the EPU shocks ranking as the US, Japanese and the EU. Regardless of the minor impact on a long-term interest rate, the short-term interest rate in China reacts positively to the European and US EPU shocks. Despite the independent national monetary policies, EPUs from the EU, Japan and the UK can decrease the Chinese monetary aggregate. In summary, the Chinese economy responds the most to the US EPU, especially to its inflation expectation disagreement component, whereas it responds the least to the UK EPU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine how national innovation policies strategically interact to form emergent de facto global entrepreneurship and innovation policies.Design/methodology/approach Reviews the innovation economics theory and policy literature, synthesizing the existing work into three models (autarky, cooperation and competition), then adds four new models of strategic interaction (asymmetric information, duopolistic competition, competitive factor mobility and complementary assets).Findings The different models predict very different outcomes. Therefore, it matters which model is true. Entrepreneurship and innovation policy needs to start with an improved science of strategic global interaction of national innovation policy.Research limitations/implications Conceptual approach only, without empirical analysis, calls for empirical analysis to test the different models.Practical implications Points to the problem of absence of global coordination in innovation policy arising from strategic interactions between national innovation policies. Recognizes that entrepreneurship public policy is caught in this strategic game, and that there are missing global institutions here.Social implications Improved innovation policy should enable more effective entrepreneurial environments.Originality/value Proposes seven models for understanding global strategic interaction of innovation policy, out of which four are new. These new ones are highly relevant to entrepreneurship policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the real and financial connectedness of selected African economies with the global economy using a network approach. We find that the connectedness of African economies with the global economy is quite sizable, with the global financial crisis increasing the connectedness measures above their pre-crisis levels. The results show that U.S., EU and Canada dominate Africa's equity markets, while China, India and Japan dominate Africa's real activities. Our results suggest that African economies are predominantly small open economies, deeply interconnected but systemically unimportant and vulnerable to headwinds emanating from the dominant economies in the overall global economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pivotal informal organizations, above all the G20, the G7 and the BRICS, have accumulated growing power in recent years. At a basic level, informal organizations differ from the formal institutions such as the UN and the IMF in a number of key ways: membership structure; foundational or legitimizational character and level of bureaucracy. What are the implications of this phenomenon for global governance? What does this shift from a hub club to a focal point network imply for innovation in modes of cooperation? The author has participated in numerous such summits, in his capacity as Prime Minister of Italy and President of the European Commission, and shares his first‐hand thoughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]