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Copyright of Conservation Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Species distribution models are vital to management decisions that require understanding habitat use patterns, particularly for species of conservation concern. However, the production of distribution maps for individual species is often hampered by data scarcity, and existing species maps are rarely spatially validated due to limited occurrence data. Furthermore, communitylevel maps based on stacked species distribution models lack important community assemblage information (e.g., competitive exclusion) relevant to conservation. Thus, multispecies, guild, or community models are often used in conservation practice instead. To address these limitations, we aimed to generate fine-scale, spatially continuous, nationwide maps for species represented in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) between 1992 and 2019. We developed ensemble models for each species at three spatial resolutions--0.5, 2.5, and 5 km--across the conterminous United States. We also compared species richness patterns from stacked single-species models with those of 19 functional guilds developed using the same data to assess the similarity between predictions. We successfully modeled 192 bird species at 5-km resolution, 160 species at 2.5-km resolution, and 80 species at 0.5-km resolution. However, the species we could model represent only 28%-56% of species found in the conterminous US BBSs across resolutions owing to data limitations. We found that stacked maps and guild maps generally had high correlations across resolutions (median = 84%), but spatial agreement varied regionally by resolution and was most pronounced between the East and West at the 5-km resolution. The spatial differences between our stacked maps and guild maps illustrate the importance of spatial validation in conservation planning. Overall, our species maps are useful for single-species conservation and can support fine-scale decision-making across the United States and support community-level conservation when used in tandem with guild maps. However, there remain data scarcity issues for many species of conservation concern when using the BBS for single-species models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountain treelines are thought to be sensitive to climate change. However, how climate impacts mountain treelines is not yet fully understood as treelines may also be affected by other human activities. Here, we focus on "closed‐loop" mountain treelines (CLMT) that completely encircle a mountain and are less likely to have been influenced by human land‐use change. We detect a total length of ~916,425 km of CLMT across 243 mountain ranges globally and reveal a bimodal latitudinal distribution of treeline elevations with higher treeline elevations occurring at greater distances from the coast. Spatially, we find that temperature is the main climatic driver of treeline elevation in boreal and tropical regions, whereas precipitation drives CLMT position in temperate zones. Temporally, we show that 70% of CLMT have moved upward, with a mean shift rate of 1.2 m/year over the first decade of the 21st century. CLMT are shifting fastest in the tropics (mean of 3.1 m/year), but with greater variability. Our work provides a new mountain treeline database that isolates climate impacts from other anthropogenic pressures, and has important implications for biodiversity, natural resources, and ecosystem adaptation in a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grassland ecosystems cover up to 40% of the global land area and provide many ecosystem services directly supporting the livelihoods of over 1 billion people. Monitoring long-term changes in grasslands is crucial for food security, biodiversity conservation, achieving Land Degradation Neutrality goals, and modeling the global carbon budget. Although long-term grassland monitoring using remote sensing is extensive, it is typically based on a single vegetation index and does not account for temporal and spatial autocorrelation, which means that some trends are falsely identified while others are missed. Our goal was to analyze trends in grasslands in Eurasia, the largest continuous grassland ecosystems on Earth. To do so, we calculated Cumulative Endmember Fractions (annual sums of monthly ground cover fractions) derived from MODIS 2002-2020 time series, and applied a new statistical approach PARTS that explicitly accounts for temporal and spatial autocorrelation in trends. We examined trends in green vegetation, non-photosynthetic vegetation, and soil ground cover fractions considering their independent change trajectories and relations among fractions over time. We derived temporally uncorrelated pixel-based trend maps and statistically tested whether observed trends could be explained by elevation, land cover, SPEI3, climate, country, and their combinations, all while accounting for spatial autocorrelation. We found no statistical evidence for a decrease in vegetation cover in grasslands in Eurasia. Instead, there was a significant map-level increase in non-photosynthetic vegetation across the region and local increases in green vegetation with a concomitant decrease in soil fraction. Independent environmental variables affected trends significantly, but effects varied by region. Overall, our analyses show in a statistically robust manner that Eurasian grasslands have changed considerably over the past two decades. Our approach enhances remote sensing-based monitoring of trends in grasslands so that underlying processes can be discerned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The African Guineo‐Congolian (GC) region is a global biodiversity hotspot with high species endemism, bioclimatic heterogeneity, complex landscape features, and multiple biogeographic barriers. Bioclimatic and geographic variables influence global patterns of species richness and endemism, but their relative importance varies across taxa and regions and is poorly understood for many faunas. Here, we test the hypothesis that turnover in endemic amphibians of the GC biodiversity hotspot is influenced mainly by the geographic distance between grid cells and secondarily by rainfall‐ and temperature‐related variables. Location: West and Central Africa. Major Taxa Studied: Amphibians. Methods: We compiled species‐occurrence records via field sampling, online databases, and taxonomic literature. Our study used 1205 unique georeferenced records of 222 amphibian species endemic to the GC region. Patterns of species richness were mapped onto a grid with a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°. We estimated weighted endemism and tested whether endemism was higher than the expected species richness (randomization test). We quantified species turnover using generalized dissimilarity modelling to evaluate the processes underlying observed patterns of species richness in GC endemic amphibians. We explored bioregionalization using agglomerative hierarchical clustering based on the unweighted pair group method with arithmetic averages. Results: We identified seven areas within the lower GC region – forests in Cameroon, Gabon, Southern Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Republic of Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Cote d'Ivoire – as having high species richness of endemic amphibians. The randomization test returned four major areas of significant weighted endemism: Nigeria‐Cameroon mountains, forest regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Cote d'Ivoire, and Ghana. Our analysis revealed five bioregions for amphibian endemism, four of which were located within the lower Guineo‐Congolian forest. Species turnover was strongly related to the geographic distance between grid cells; contributing bioclimatic variables included precipitation of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, and mean diurnal temperature range. Main Conclusions: Our results indicate that geographic distance between grid cells is the primary determinant of turnover in GC endemic amphibians, with secondary but significant effects of rainfall‐ and temperature‐related variables. Our study identifies key areas of endemic amphibian richness that could be prioritized for conservation actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human activities alter ecosystems everywhere, causing rapid biodiversity loss and biotic homogenization. These losses necessitate coordinated conservation actions guided by biodiversity and species distribution spatial data that cover large areas yet have fine‐enough resolution to be management‐relevant (i.e., ≤5 km). However, most biodiversity products are too coarse for management or are only available for small areas. Furthermore, many maps generated for biodiversity assessment and conservation do not explicitly quantify the inherent tradeoff between resolution and accuracy when predicting biodiversity patterns. Our goals were to generate predictive models of overall breeding bird species richness and species richness of different guilds based on nine functional or life‐history‐based traits across the conterminous United States at three resolutions (0.5, 2.5, and 5 km) and quantify the tradeoff between resolution and accuracy and, hence, relevance for management of the resulting biodiversity maps. We summarized 18 years of North American Breeding Bird Survey data (1992–2019) and modeled species richness using random forests, including 66 predictor variables (describing climate, vegetation, geomorphology, and anthropogenic conditions), 20 of which we newly derived. Among the three spatial resolutions, the percentage variance explained ranged from 27% to 60% (median = 54%; mean = 57%) for overall species richness and 12% to 87% (median = 61%; mean = 58%) for our different guilds. Overall species richness and guild‐specific species richness were best explained at 5‐km resolution using ~24 predictor variables based on percentage variance explained, symmetric mean absolute percentage error, and root mean square error values. However, our 2.5‐km‐resolution maps were almost as accurate and provided more spatially detailed information, which is why we recommend them for most management applications. Our results represent the first consistent, occurrence‐based, and nationwide maps of breeding bird richness with a thorough accuracy assessment that are also spatially detailed enough to inform local management decisions. More broadly, our findings highlight the importance of explicitly considering tradeoffs between resolution and accuracy to create management‐relevant biodiversity products for large areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid climate change is impacting biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human well‐being. Though the magnitude and trajectory of climate change are becoming clearer, our understanding of how these changes reshape terrestrial life zones—distinct biogeographic units characterized by biotemperature, precipitation, and aridity representing broad‐scale ecosystem types—is limited. To address this gap, we used high‐resolution historical climatologies and climate projections to determine the global distribution of historical (1901–1920), contemporary (1979–2013), and future (2061–2080) life zones. Comparing the historical and contemporary distributions shows that changes from one life zone to another during the 20th century impacted 27 million km2 (18.3% of land), with consequences for social and ecological systems. Such changes took place in all biomes, most notably in Boreal Forests, Temperate Coniferous Forests, and Tropical Coniferous Forests. Comparing the contemporary and future life zone distributions shows the pace of life zone changes accelerating rapidly in the 21st century. By 2070, such changes would impact an additional 62 million km2 (42.6% of land) under "business‐as‐usual" (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios. Accelerated rates of change are observed in hundreds of ecoregions across all biomes except Tropical Coniferous Forests. While only 30 ecoregions (3.5%) had over half of their areas change to a different life zone during the 20th century, by 2070 this number is projected to climb to 111 ecoregions (13.1%) under RCP4.5 and 281 ecoregions (33.2%) under RCP8.5. We identified weak correlations between life zone change and threatened vertebrate richness, levels of vertebrate endemism, cropland extent, and human population densities within ecoregions, illustrating the ubiquitous risks of life zone changes to diverse social–ecological systems. The accelerated pace of life zone changes will increasingly challenge adaptive conservation and sustainable development strategies that incorrectly assume current ecological patterns and livelihood provisioning systems will persist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental heterogeneity enhances species richness by creating niches and providing refugia. Spatial variation in climate has a particularly strong positive correlation with richness, but is often indirectly inferred from proxy variables, such as elevation and related topographic heterogeneity indices, or derived from interpolated coarse‐grain weather station data. Our aim was to develop new remotely sensed metrics of relative temperature and thermal heterogeneity, compare them with proxy measures, and evaluate their performance in predicting species richness patterns. We analyzed Landsat 8's Thermal Infrared Sensor data, calculated two thermal metrics during summer and winter, and compared their seasonal spatial patterns with those of elevation and topographic heterogeneity. We fit generalized least squares models to evaluate each variable's effect in predicting seasonal bird richness using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. Generally speaking, neither elevation nor topographic heterogeneity were good proxies for temperature or thermal heterogeneity, respectively. Relative temperature had a non‐linear relationship with elevation that was negatively quadratic in summer, but slightly positively quadratic in winter. Topographic heterogeneity had a stronger positive relationship with thermal heterogeneity in winter than in summer. The magnitude and direction of elevation–temperature and topographic heterogeneity–thermal heterogeneity relationships in each season also varied substantially across ecoregions. Remotely sensed metrics of relative temperature and thermal heterogeneity improved the predictive performance of species richness models, and both thermal variables had significant effects on bird richness that were independent of elevation and topographic heterogeneity. Thermal heterogeneity was positively related to total breeding bird richness, migrant breeding bird richness and resident bird richness, whereas topographic heterogeneity was negatively related to total breeding richness and unrelated to migrant or resident bird richness. Because thermal and topographic heterogeneity had contrasting seasonal patterns and effects on richness, they must be carefully contextualized when guiding conservation priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fields of ecology and conservation have evolved rapidly over the past century. Synthesizing larger trends in these disciplines remains a challenge yet is critical to bridging subdisciplines, guiding research, and informing educational frameworks. Here, we provide what we believe is the largest full‐text culturomic analysis of ecology and conservation journals, covering 80 years, 52 journals, and half a billion words. Our analysis illuminates the boom‐and‐bust of ecological hypotheses and theories; the adoption of statistical, genetic, and social‐science approaches; and the domination of terms that have emerged in recent decades (eg climate change, invasive species, ecosystem services, meta‐analysis, and supplementary material, which largely replaced unpublished data). We track the evolution of ecology from a largely descriptive field focused on natural history and observational studies to a more data‐driven, multidisciplinary field focused on applied environmental issues. Overall, our analysis highlights the increasing breadth of the field, illustrating that there is room for more diversity of ecologists and conservationists today than ever before. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species loss is occurring globally at unprecedented rates, and effective conservation planning requires an understanding of landscape characteristics that determine biodiversity patterns. Habitat heterogeneity is an important determinant of species diversity, but is difficult to measure across large areas using field‐based methods that are costly and logistically challenging. Satellite image texture analysis offers a cost‐effective alternative for quantifying habitat heterogeneity across broad spatial scales. We tested the ability of texture measures derived from 30‐m resolution Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data to capture habitat heterogeneity and predict bird species richness across the conterminous United States. We used Landsat 8 satellite imagery from 2013–2017 to derive a suite of texture measures characterizing vegetation heterogeneity. Individual texture measures explained up to 21% of the variance in bird richness patterns in North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data during the same time period. Texture measures were positively related to total breeding bird richness, but this relationship varied among forest, grassland, and shrubland habitat specialists. Multiple texture measures combined with mean EVI explained up to 41% of the variance in total bird richness, and models including EVI‐based texture measures explained up to 10% more variance than those that included only EVI. Models that also incorporated topographic and land cover metrics further improved predictive performance, explaining up to 51% of the variance in total bird richness. A texture measure contributed predictive power and characterized landscape features that EVI and forest cover alone could not, even though the latter two were overall more important variables. Our results highlight the potential of texture measures for mapping habitat heterogeneity and species richness patterns across broad spatial extents, especially when used in conjunction with vegetation indices or land cover data. By generating 30‐m resolution texture maps and modeling bird richness at a near‐continental scale, we expand on previous applications of image texture measures for modeling biodiversity that were either limited in spatial extent or based on coarse‐resolution imagery. Incorporating texture measures into broad‐scale biodiversity models may advance our understanding of mechanisms underlying species richness patterns and improve predictions of species responses to rapid global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is leading to widespread elevational shifts thought to increase species extinction risk in mountains. We integrate digital elevation models with a metric of human pressure to examine changes in the amount of intact land area available for species undergoing elevational range shifts in all major mountain ranges globally (n = 1010). Nearly 60% of mountainous area is under intense human pressure, predominantly at low elevations and mountain bases. Consequently, upslope range shifts generally resulted in modeled species at lower elevations expanding into areas of lower human pressure and, due to complex topography, encountering more intact land area relative to their starting position. Such gains were often attenuated at high elevations as land-use constraints diminished and topographic constraints increased. Integrating patterns of topography and human pressure is essential for accurate species vulnerability assessments under climate change, as priorities for protecting, connecting, and restoring mountain landscapes may otherwise be misguided. It is often assumed that many species will move upslope in mountainous regions as the climate warms. However, the authors show here that as many species move to higher elevations they will enter areas of lower human footprint but potentially more constraining topography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how and why species respond to land‐use change is one of the central challenges in conservation biology, yet the causes of variation in the responses of species to land‐use change remain unclear. We tested whether adaptation to different abiotic environments influenced the vulnerability of bird communities to agricultural expansion in the Himalayan mountain range, which exhibits a strong east–west gradient in annual temperature variation. We did so by surveying bird communities in forest and agriculture at opposite ends of that gradient. We contrasted metrics of species richness, diversity, community composition and forest dependency across land‐use types and regions, and tested whether species' thermal sensitivity influenced their response to the replacement of forest with agriculture. Agricultural land in the relatively aseasonal east harboured significantly fewer bird species than did forests, a pattern that is starkly reversed in the highly seasonal west. For species common to both regions, eastern populations used forest ~35% more than did western populations. While western species were less constrained by temperature than eastern species, western species with narrow thermal tolerances were also more forest dependent. Selection across a stark environmental gradient on a common species pool appears to have altered the vulnerability of Himalayan birds to forest loss, with communities in the relatively aseasonal east much more sensitive to forest conversion than those in the west. Adaptation to local environmental conditions appears to mediate species' responses to land use change, with thermal specialists more vulnerable to forest loss than species with greater thermal tolerances. Species' responses to global change may differ predictably along abiotic gradients even within a single region or biodiversity hotspot, and such variation must be addressed in conservation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Conservation Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Protected areas (PAs) that span elevational gradients enhance protection for taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity and facilitate species range shifts under climate change. We quantified the global protection of elevational gradients by analyzing the elevational distributions of 44,155 PAs in 1,010 mountain ranges using the highest resolution digital elevation models available. We show that, on average, mountain ranges in Africa and Asia have the lowest elevational protection, ranges in Europe and South America have intermediate elevational protection, and ranges in North America and Oceania have the highest elevational protection. We use the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi Target 11 to assess the proportion of elevational gradients meeting the 17% suggested minimum target and examine how different protection categories contribute to elevational protection. When considering only strict PAs [International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) categories I-IV, n = 24,706], nearly 40% of ranges do not contain any PAs, roughly half fail to meet the 17% target at any elevation, and ~75% fail to meet the target throughout ≥50% of the elevational gradient. Observed elevational protection is well below optimal, and frequently below a null model of elevational protection. Including less stringent PAs (IUCN categories V-VI and nondesignated PAs, n = 19,449) significantly enhances elevational protection for most continents, but several highly biodiverse ranges require new or expanded PAs to increase elevational protection. Ensuring conservation outcomes for PAs with lower IUCN designations as well as strategically placing PAs to better represent and connect elevational gradients will enhance ecological representation and facilitate species range shifts under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Longstanding theory predicts that competitive interactions set species' range limits in relatively aseasonal, species-rich regions, while temperature limits distributions in more seasonal, species-poor areas. More recent theory holds that species evolve narrow physiological tolerances in aseasonal regions, with temperature being an important determining factor in such zones. We tested how abiotic (temperature) and biotic (competition) factors set range limits and structure bird communities along strong, opposing, temperature-seasonality and species-richness gradients in the Himalayas, in two regions separated by 1500 km. By examining the degree to which seasonal elevational migration conserves year-round thermal niches across species, we show that species in the relatively aseasonal and speciose east are more constrained by temperature compared with species in the highly seasonal west. We further show that seasonality has a profound effect on the strength of competition between congeneric species. Competition appears to be stronger in winter, a period of resource scarcity in the Himalayas, in both the east and the west, with similarly sized eastern species more likely to segregate in thermal niche space in winter. Our results indicate that rather than acting in isolation, abiotic and biotic factors mediate each other to structure ecological communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Conservation Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

There is clear evidence that species' ranges along environmental gradients are constrained by both biotic and abiotic factors, yet their relative importance in structuring realized distributions remains uncertain. We surveyed breeding bird communities while collecting in situ temperature and vegetation data along five elevational transects in the Himalayas differing in temperature variability, habitat zonation, and bird richness in order to disentangle temperature, habitat, and congeneric competition as mechanisms structuring elevational ranges. Our results from species' abundance models representing these three mechanisms differed markedly from previous, foundational research in the tropics. Contrary to general expectations, we found little evidence for competition as a major determinant of range boundaries, with congeneric species limiting only 12% of ranges. Instead, temperature and habitat were found to structure the majority of species' distributions, limiting 48 and 40% of ranges, respectively. Our results suggest that different mechanisms may structure species ranges in the temperate Himalayas compared to tropical systems. Despite recent evidence suggesting temperate species have broader thermal tolerances than tropical species, our findings reinforce the notion that the abiotic environment has significant control over the distributions of temperate species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Incentivizing carbon storage can be a win-win pathway to conserving biodiversity and mitigating climate change. In savannas, however, the situation is more complex. Promoting carbon storage through woody encroachment may reduce plant diversity of savanna endemics, even as the diversity of encroaching forest species increases. This trade-off has important implications for the management of biodiversity and carbon in savanna habitats, but has rarely been evaluated empirically. We quantified the nature of carbon-diversity relationships in the Brazilian Cerrado by analyzing how woody plant species richness changed with carbon storage in 206 sites across the 2.2 million km2 region at two spatial scales. We show that total woody plant species diversity increases with carbon storage, as expected, but that the richness of endemic savanna woody plant species declines with carbon storage both at the local scale, as woody biomass accumulates within plots, and at the landscape scale, as forest replaces savanna. The sharpest trade-offs between carbon storage and savanna diversity occurred at the early stages of carbon accumulation at the local scale but the final stages of forest encroachment at the landscape scale. Furthermore, the loss of savanna species quickens in the final stages of forest encroachment, and beyond a point, savanna species losses outpace forest species gains with increasing carbon accumulation. Our results suggest that although woody encroachment in savanna ecosystems may provide substantial carbon benefits, it comes at the rapidly accruing cost of woody plant species adapted to the open savanna environment. Moreover, the dependence of carbon-diversity trade-offs on the amount of savanna area remaining requires land managers to carefully consider local conditions. Widespread woody encroachment in both Australian and African savannas and grasslands may present similar threats to biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing evidence indicates that species throughout the world are responding to climate change by shifting their geographic distributions. Although shifts can be directionally heterogeneous, they often follow warming temperatures polewards and upslope. Montane species are of particular concern in this regard, as they are expected to face reduced available area of occupancy and increased risk of extinction with upslope movements. However, this expectation hinges on the assumption that surface area decreases monotonically as species move up mountainsides. We analysed the elevational availability of surface area for a global data set containing 182 of the world's mountain ranges. Sixty-eight per cent of these mountain ranges had topographies in which area did not decrease monotonically with elevation. Rather, mountain range topographies exhibited four distinct area-elevation patterns: decreasing (32% of ranges), increasing (6%), a mid-elevation peak in area (39%), and a mid-elevation trough in area (23%). These findings suggest that many species, particularly those of foothills and lower montane zones, may encounter increases in available area as a result of shifting upslope. A deeper understanding of underlying mountain topography can inform conservation priorities by revealing where shifting species stand to undergo area increases, decreases and bottlenecks as they respond to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]