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The Mediterranean region is experiencing pronounced aridification and in certain areas higher occurrence of intense precipitation. In this work, we analyze the evolution of the precipitation probability distribution in terms of precipitating days (or "wet‐days") and all‐days quantile trends, in Europe and the Mediterranean, using the ERA5 reanalysis. Looking at the form of wet‐days quantile trends curves, we identify four regimes. Two are predominant: in most of northern Europe the precipitation quantiles all intensify, while in the Mediterranean the low‐medium quantiles are mostly decreasing as extremes intensify or decrease. The wet‐days distribution is then modeled by a Weibull law with two parameters, whose changes capture the four regimes. Assessing the significance of the parameters' changes over 1950–2020 shows that a signal on wet‐days distribution has already emerged in northern Europe (where the distribution shifts to more intense precipitation), but not yet in the Mediterranean, where the natural variability is stronger. We extend the results by describing the all‐days distribution change as the wet‐days' change plus a contribution from the dry‐days frequency change, and study their relative contribution. In northern Europe, the wet‐days distribution change is the dominant driver, and the contribution of dry‐days frequency change can be neglected for wet‐days percentiles above about 50%. In the Mediterranean, however, the change of precipitation distribution comes from the significant increase of dry‐days frequency instead of an intensity change during wet‐days. Therefore, in the Mediterranean the increase of dry‐days frequency is crucial for all‐days trends, even for heavy precipitation. Plain Language Summary: The Mediterranean region is facing increased dryness alongside more intense rainfall in certain areas. We delved into the change of precipitation frequency and intensity across Europe and the Mediterranean using ERA5 reanalysis data from 1950 to 2020. Our analysis revealed four distinct patterns in how rainfall is evolving. In much of northern Europe, heavy rainfall events are becoming more frequent, while in the Mediterranean, lighter precipitation is decreasing while heavy rain is either increasing or decreasing. To understand these changes better, we used a mathematical model with two parameters. This model helped us track the types of changes in precipitation patterns. We found that in northern Europe, the increase in rainfall intensity is the primary driver of change, while in the Mediterranean, it's more about the increase of the dry‐days frequency. These findings underscore the importance of considering both the frequency and intensity of precipitation when studying climate change impacts. By understanding these shifts, we can better prepare for future weather extremes in these regions and adapt to the changing climate. Key Points: Four regimes of change for daily precipitation distribution are identified, and are captured by a two parameters analytical modelIn northern Europe, a signal of increasing mean and extreme precipitation has emergedIn the Mediterranean, the changes of precipitation appears dominated by changes in dry‐days frequency [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep convection occurs periodically in the Gulf of Lion, in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, driven by the seasonal atmospheric change and Mistral winds. To determine the variability and drivers of both forcings, multiple 1 year ocean simulations were run, spanning from 1993 to 2013. Two sets of simulations were performed: a control and seasonal set, the first forced by unfiltered atmospheric forcing and the other by filtered forcing. The filtered forcing was bandpass filtered, retaining the seasonal and intraday aspects but removing the high frequency phenomena. Comparing the two sets allows for distinguishing the effects of the high frequency component of the Mistral on the ocean response. During the preconditioning phase, the seasonal forcing was found to be the main destratifying process, removing on average 46% of the stratification needed for deep convection to occur, versus the 28% removed by the Mistral. Despite this, each forcing triggered deep convection in roughly half of the deep‐convection events. Sensible and latent heat fluxes were found to be the main drivers of the seasonal forcing during deep‐convection years, removing 0.17 and 0.43 m2s−2 of stratification, respectively. They were themselves driven by increased wind speeds, believed to be the low frequency signal of the Mistral, as more Mistral events occur during deep‐convection winters (34% vs. 29% of the preconditioning period days). An evolving seasonal forcing in a changing climate may have significant effects on the future deep convection cycle of the western Mediterranean Sea. Plain Language Summary: Deep convection occurs periodically in the Gulf of Lion (located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea), when water at the surface of the ocean is cooled enough to mix freely with the deeper water below, sometimes reaching the sea floor. It's an important part of the overall circulation of the Mediterranean Sea that leads to an explosion in the phytoplankton population in the following spring. In the gulf, the surface cooling is caused by the atmospheric transition from summer to winter and the Mistral winds. The latter is a cool, dry northerly wind that flows through the Rhône Valley out over the gulf. In our study, we ran ocean simulations that included and excluded the non‐seasonal effects of the Mistral to determine the importance of the seasonal and Mistral forcing on deep convection. The seasonal forcing was found to have a larger role, and contained a low frequency part of the Mistral, elevating the average wind speeds during the winter. Changes in the seasonal forcing and ocean water composition will need to be studied to understand the evolution of deep convection in the Gulf of Lion and its consequences on the Mediterranean Sea dynamics and biology in a changing climate. Key Points: The seasonal atmospheric change is the main driver of destratificationWinters with deep convection have below average levels of stratification that the atmospheric forcing has to overcomeThe Mistral winds have a low frequency signature that elevates the seasonal wind speeds in the winter [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies using convection-permitting (CP) climate simulations have demonstrated a step-change in the representation of heavy rainfall and rainfall characteristics (frequency-intensity) compared to coarser resolution Global and Regional climate models. The goal of this study is to better understand what explains the weaker frequency of precipitation in the CP ensemble by assessing the triggering process of precipitation in the different ensembles of regional climate simulations available over Europe. We focus on the statistical relationship between tropospheric temperature, humidity and precipitation to understand how the frequency of precipitation over Europe and the Mediterranean is impacted by model resolution and the representation of convection (parameterized vs. explicit). We employ a multi-model data-set with three different resolutions (0.44°, 0.11° and 0.0275°) produced in the context of the MED-CORDEX, EURO-CORDEX and the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study "Convective Phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean" (FPSCONV). The multi-variate approach is applied to all model ensembles, and to several surface stations where the integrated water vapor (IWV) is derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements. The results show that all model ensembles capture the temperature dependence of the critical value of IWV (IWVcv), above which an increase in precipitation frequency occurs, but the differences between the models in terms of the value of IWVcv, and the probability of its being exceeded, can be large at higher temperatures. The lower frequency of precipitation in convection-permitting simulations is not only explained by higher temperatures but also by a higher IWVcv necessary to trigger precipitation at similar temperatures, and a lower probability to exceed this critical value. The spread between models in simulating IWVcv and the probability of exceeding IWVcv is reduced over land in the ensemble of models with explicit convection, especially at high temperatures, when the convective fraction of total precipitation becomes more important and the influence of the representation of entrainment in models thus becomes more important. Over lowlands, both model resolution and convection representation affect precipitation triggering while over mountainous areas, resolution has the highest impact due to orography-induced triggering processes. Over the sea, since lifting is produced by large-scale convergence, the probability to exceed IWVcv does not depend on temperature, and the model resolution does not have a clear impact on the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mistral is a northerly gap‐wind regime blowing through the Rhone Valley in Southern France. It is held responsible for the sea‐surface cooling necessary to produce deep convection in the Gulf of Lion through turbulent ocean heat loss. The mistral is tightly connected to lee‐cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Genoa, where topography forces substantial downward motion. Dry intrusions (DIs) are airstreams forming the descending branch of extratropical cyclones. Known to induce cold and dry surface anomalies, DIs are potential contributors to enhanced surface evaporation during mistral. In this study, a climatological database (ERA‐INTERIM, 1981–2016) of mistral–DI co‐occurrence is constructed, allowing quantification of the impact of DIs on the mistral evaporative hot spot for the first time. We find that, on average, mistral–DI evaporation rates are doubled, compared to mistral without DIs. Moreover, cluster‐composite analysis reveals amplifications exceeding 300% between dynamically similar mistral events, with response to DIs. Daily latent heat‐flux anomalies in the Gulf of Lion are decomposed into contributions from the various parameters to analyse the mistral evaporation response to DIs. Mistral–DI events are shown to produce extreme evaporation rates through increased mistral wind speeds. The results highlight the downward momentum flux delivered by DIs to the mistral at the Gulf of Lion as the primary driver of the evaporation amplification mechanism. We further explore the variability between different mistral–DI events and conclude that extreme mistral–DI evaporation events are linked to descending air trajectories entering the Gulf of Lion at an early stage of their lifetimes. These DIs charge the mistral with maximum vertical momentum fluxes, which act to intensify surface winds and hence evaporation rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Morocco, as a Mediterranean and North African country, is acknowledged as a climate change hotspot, where increased drought and related water resource shortages present a real challenge for human and natural systems. However, its geographic position and regional characteristics make the simulation of the distribution and variability of precipitation particularly challenging in the region. In this study, we propose an approach where the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Zoom (LMDZ) GCM is run with a stretched grid configuration developed with enhanced resolution (35 km) over the region, and we apply run‐time bias correction to deal with the atmospheric model's systematic errors on large‐scale circulation. The bias‐correction terms for wind and temperature are built using the climatological mean of the adjustment terms on tendency errors in an LMDZ simulation relaxed towards ERA5 reanalyses. The free reference run with the zoomed configuration is compared to two bias‐corrected runs. The free run exhibits noticeable improvements in mean low‐level circulation, high frequency variability and moisture transport and compares favourably to precipitation observations at the local scale. The mean simulated climate is substantially improved after bias correction w.r.t. to the uncorrected runs. At the regional scale, the bias‐correction showed improvements in moisture transport and precipitation distribution, but no noticeable effect was observed in mean precipitation amounts, interannual variability and extreme events. To address the latter, model tuning after grid refinement and developing more "scale‐aware" parameterizations are necessary. The observed improvements on the large‐scale circulation suggest that the run‐time bias correction can be used to drive regional climate models for a better representation of regional and local climate. It can also be combined with "a posteriori" bias correction methods to improve local precipitation simulation, including extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land surface–atmosphere interactions are a key component of climate modeling. They are particularly critical to understand and anticipate the climate and the water resources over the semiarid and arid North African regions. This study uses in situ observations to assess the ability of the IPSL-CM global climate model to simulate the land–atmosphere interactions over the Moroccan semiarid plains. A specific configuration with a grid refinement over the Haouz Plain, near Marrakech, and nudging outside Morocco has been performed to properly assess the model's performances. To ensure reliable model–observation comparisons despite the fact that station measurements are not representative of a mesh-size area, we carried out experiments with adapted vegetation properties. Results show that the CMIP6 version of the model's physics represents the near-surface climate over the Haouz Plain reasonably well. Nonetheless, the simulation exhibits a nocturnal warm bias, and the wind speed is overestimated in tree-covered meshes and underestimated in the wheat-covered region. Further sensitivity experiments reveal that LAI-dependent parameterization of roughness length leads to a strong surface wind drag and to underestimated land surface atmosphere thermal coupling. Setting the roughness heights to the observed values improves the wind speed and, to a lesser extent, the nocturnal temperature. A low bias in latent heat flux and soil moisture coinciding with a pronounced diurnal warm bias at the surface is still present in our simulations. Including a first-order irrigation parameterization yields more realistic simulated evapotranspiration flux and daytime skin surface temperatures. This result raises the importance of accounting for the irrigation process in present and future climate simulations over Moroccan agricultural areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean basin and Northern Africa are projected to be among the most vulnerable areas to climate change. This research documents, analyzes, and synthesizes the projected changes in precipitation P, evapotranspiration E, net water supply from the atmosphere to the surface P–E, and surface soil moisture over these regions as simulated by 17 global climate models from the sixth exercise of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5. It also explores the sensitivity of the results to the chosen climate scenario and model resolution and assesses how the projections have evolved from the fifth exercise (CMIP5). Models project a statistically robust drying over the entire Mediterranean and coastal North Africa. Over the Northern Mediterranean sector, a significant precipitation decrease reaching −0.4 ∓ 0.1 mm day−1 is projected during the 21st century under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario. Conversely, a significant increase in precipitation of +0.05 to 0.3 ∓ 0.1 mm day−1 is projected over South‐Eastern Sahara under the same scenario. Evapotranspiration and soil moisture exhibit decreasing trends over the Mediterranean basin and an increase over the Sahara for both SSPs, with a notable acceleration from the 2020s. As a result, P‐E is projected to decrease at a rate of about −0.3 mm day−1 under the high‐end scenario SSP5‐8.5 over the Mediterranean whilst no significant changes are expected over the Sahara due to evapotranspiration compensation effects. CMIP6 and CMIP5 models project qualitatively similar patterns of changes but CMIP6 models exhibit more intense changes over the Mediterranean basin and South‐Eastern Sahara, especially during winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to the increasing share of variable renewable energies in the electricity mix, the European energy sector is becoming more weather sensitive. In this regard, skillful subseasonal predictions of essential climate variables can provide considerable socioeconomic benefits to the energy sector. The aim of this study is therefore to improve the European subseasonal predictions of 100-m wind speed and 2-m temperature, which we achieve through statistical downscaling. We employ redundancy analysis (RDA) to estimate spatial patterns of variability from large-scale fields that allow for the best prediction of surface fields. We compare explanatory powers between the patterns obtained using RDA against those derived using principal component analysis (PCA), when used as predictors in multilinear regression models to predict surface fields, and show that the explanatory power of the former is superior to that of the latter. Subsequently, we employ the estimated relationship between RDA patterns and surface fields to produce statistical probabilistic predictions of gridded surface fields using dynamical ensemble predictions of RDA patterns. We finally demonstrate how a simple combination of dynamical and statistical predictions of surface fields significantly improves the accuracy of subseasonal predictions of both variables over a large part of Europe. We attribute the improved accuracy of these combined predictions to improvements in reliability and resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclones are responsible for a large share of global damage resulting from natural disasters, and estimating cyclone-related damage at a national level is a challenge attracting growing interest in the context of climate change. The global climate models, whose outputs are available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), do not resolve tropical cyclones. The Cyclone generation Algorithm including a THERmodynamic module for Integrated National damage Assessment (CATHERINA), presented in this paper, couples statistical and thermodynamic relationships to generate synthetic tracks sensitive to local climate conditions and estimates the damage induced by tropical cyclones at a national level. The framework is designed to be compatible with the data from CMIP models offering a reliable solution to resolve tropical cyclones in climate projections. We illustrate this by producing damage projections in representative concentration pathways (RCPs) at the global level and for individual countries. The algorithm contains a module to correct biases in climate models based on the distributions of the climate variables in the reanalyses. This model was primary developed to provide the economic and financial community with reliable signals allowing for a better quantification of physical risks in the long term, to estimate, for example, the impact on sovereign debt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A methanol island, powered by solar or wind energy, indirectly captures atmospheric CO2 through the ocean and combines it with hydrogen gas to produce a synthetic fuel. The island components include a carbon dioxide extractor, a desalinator, an electrolyzer, and a carbon dioxide-hydrogen reactor to complete this process. In this study, the optimal locations to place such a device in the Mediterranean Sea were determined, based on three main constraints: power availability, environmental risk, and methanol production capability. The island was numerically simulated with a purpose built python package pyseafuel. Data from 20 years of ocean and atmospheric simulation data were used to "force" the simulated methanol island. The optimal locations were found to strongly depend on the power availability constraint, with most optimal locations providing the most solar and/or wind power, due to the limited effect the ocean surface variability had on the power requirements of methanol island. Within this context, optimal locations were found to be the Alboran, Cretan, and Levantine Sea due to the availability of insolation for the Alboran and Levantine Sea and availability of wind power for the Cretan Sea. These locations were also not co-located with areas with larger maximum significant wave heights, thereby avoiding areas with higher environmental risk. When we simulate the production at these locations, a 10 L s−1 seawater inflow rate produced 494.21, 495.84, and 484.70 mL m−2 of methanol over the course of a year, respectively. Island communities in these regions could benefit from the energy resource diversification and independence these systems could provide. However, the environmental impact of such systems is poorly understood and requires further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investments into wind power generation may be hampered by the uncertainty of future revenues caused by the natural variability of the wind resource, the impact of climate change on wind potential and future electricity prices, and the regulatory risks. We quantify the uncertainty of the economic value of wind farms in France, Germany, and Denmark, and evaluate the cost of support mechanisms needed to ensure the profitability of wind farms under present and future climates. To this end, we built a localised model for wind power output and a country-level model for electricity demand and prices. Our study reveals that support mechanisms are needed for current market conditions and the current climate, as well as under future climate conditions according to several scenarios for climate change and energy transition. The cost of support mechanisms during a 15-year period is evaluated to EUR 3.8 to EUR 11.5 billion per year in France, from EUR 15.5 to EUR 26.5 billion per year in Germany, and from EUR 1.2 to EUR 3.3 billion per year in Denmark, depending on the scenario considered and the level of penetration of wind energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subseasonal forecasts of 100-m wind speed and surface temperature, if skillful, can be beneficial to the energy sector as they can be used to plan asset availability and maintenance, assess risks of extreme events, and optimally trade power on the markets. In this study, we evaluate the skill of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ subseasonal predictions of 100-m wind speed and 2-m temperature. To the authors’ knowledge, this assessment is the first for the 100-m wind speed, which is an essential variable of practical importance to the energy sector. The assessment is carried out on both forecasts and reforecasts over European domain gridpoint wise and also by considering several spatially averaged domains, using several metrics to assess different attributes of forecast quality. We propose a novel way of synthesizing the continuous ranked probability skill score. The results show that the skill of the forecasts and reforecasts depends on the choice of the climate variable, the period of the year, and the geographical domain. Indeed, the predictions of temperature are better than those of wind speed, with enhanced skill found for both variables in the winter relative to other seasons. The results also indicate significant differences between the skill of forecasts and reforecasts, arising mainly due to the differing ensemble sizes. Overall, depending on the choice of the geographical domain and the forecast attribute, the results show skillful predictions beyond 2 weeks, and in certain cases, up to 6 weeks for both variables, thereby encouraging their implementation in operational decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep convection in the Gulf of Lion is believed to be primarily driven by the mistral winds. However, our findings show that the seasonal atmospheric change provides roughly two-thirds of the buoyancy loss required for deep convection to occur for the year 2012 to 2013, with the mistral supplying the final third. Two NEMOMED12 ocean simulations of the Mediterranean Sea were run from 1 August 2012 to 31 July 2013, forced with two sets of atmospheric-forcing data from a RegIPSL coupled run within the Med-CORDEX framework. One set of atmospheric-forcing data was left unmodified, while the other was filtered to remove the signal of the mistral. The control simulation featured deep convection, while the seasonal simulation did not. A simple model was derived by relating the anomaly scale forcing (the difference between the control and seasonal runs) and the seasonal scale forcing to the ocean response through the stratification index. This simple model revealed that the mistral's effect on buoyancy loss depends more on its strength rather than its frequency or duration. The simple model also revealed that the seasonal cycle of the stratification index is equal to the net surface heat flux over the course of the year, with the stratification maximum and minimum occurring roughly at the fall and spring equinoxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclones are responsible for a large share of global damage resulting from natural disasters and estimating cyclone-related damage at a national level is a challenge attracting growing interest in the context of climate change. The global climate models, whose outputs are available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), do not resolve tropical cyclones. The Cyclone generation Algorithm including a THERmodynamic module for Integrated National damage Assessment (CATHERINA) presented in this paper, couples statistical and thermodynamic relationships to generate synthetic tracks sensitive to local climate conditions and estimates the damage induced by tropical cyclones at a national level. The framework is designed to be compatible with CMIP models data offering a simple solution to resolve tropical cyclones in climate projections. We illustrate it by producing damage projections in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) at the global level and for individual countries. The algorithm contains a module to correct biases in climate models based on the distributions of the climate variables in the reanalyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep convection in the Gulf of Lion is believed to be primarily driven by the Mistral winds. However, our findings show that the seasonal atmospheric change provides roughly 2/3 of the buoyancy loss required for deep convection to occur, for the 2012 to 2013 year, with the Mistral supplying the final 1/3. Two NEMOMED12 ocean simulations of the Mediterranean Sea were run for the Aug. 1st, 2012 to July 31st, 2013 year, forced with two sets of atmospheric forcing data from a RegIPSL coupled run within the Med-CORDEX framework. One set of atmospheric forcing data was left unmodified, while the other was filtered to remove the signal of the Mistral. The Control simulation featured deep convection, while the Seasonal did not. A simple model was derived, relating the anomaly scale forcing (the difference between the Control and Seasonal runs) and the seasonal scale forcing to the ocean response through the Stratification Index. This simple model revealed that the Mistral's effect on buoyancy loss depends more on its strength rather than its frequency or duration. The simple model also revealed that the seasonal cycle of the Stratification Index is equal to the net surface heat flux over the course of the year, with the stratification maximum and minimum occurring roughly at the fall and spring equinoxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between the wind speed derived from the outputs of a numerical-weather-prediction model and from observations is explored using statistical and machine-learning models. Eight years of wind-speed measurements at a height of 10 m (from 2010 to 2017) from 171 stations spread over mainland France and Corsica are used for reference. Operational analyses from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) provide the model information not only on the surface flow, but on other aspects of the atmospheric state at the location (or above) each station. In a first step, a large number of explanatory variables are used as input to several models (linear regressions, k-nearest neighbours, random forests, and gradient boosting). The modelled wind speed in the ECMWF analyses, by itself, has root-mean-square errors over all stations distributed widely around a median of 1.42 m s - 1 . Using statistical post-processing and making use of a historical dataset for training, the median of the root-mean-square errors at all stations can be reduced down to 1.07 m s - 1 when modelled with linear regressions, and down to 0.94 m s - 1 with the machine-learning models (random forests or gradient boosting). Yet more significant decreases are found for coastal stations where the errors are largest. The random-forest models are further explored to reduce the list of explanatory variables: a list of 25 explanatory variables, mainly consisting of flow variables (wind speed, velocity components, horizontal gradients of geopotential on different isobaric surfaces, wind shear between 10 and 100 m) and including marginally some temperature variables, appears as a good compromise between performance and simplicity. Finally, as a preliminary test for further work, the relation thus captured between the model outputs and the observed wind speed at a given time is applied to forecasts of the numerical-weather-prediction model, for lead times up to 24 h. The machine-learning model is found to be essentially as relevant on the forecasts as it was on the analyses, encouraging further use and development of these approaches for local wind-speed forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nearly all regions in the world are projected to become dryer in a warming climate. Here, we investigate the Mediterranean region, often referred to as a climate change “hot spot”. From regional climate simulations, it is shown that although enhanced warming and drying over land is projected, the spatial pattern displays high variability. Indeed, drying is largely caused by enhanced warming over land. However, in Northern Europe, soil moisture alleviates warming induced drying by up to 50% due to humidity uptake from land. In already arid regions, the Mediterranean Sea is generally the only humidity source, and drying is only due to land warming. However, over Sahara and the Iberian Peninsula, enhanced warming over land is insufficient to explain the extreme drying. These regions are also isolated from humidity advection by heat lows, which are cyclonic circulation anomalies associated with surface heating over land. The cyclonic circulation scales with the temperature gradient between land and ocean which increases with climate change, reinforcing the cyclonic circulation over Sahara and the Iberian Peninsula, both diverting the zonal advection of humidity to the south of the Iberian Peninsula. The dynamics are therefore key in the warming and drying of the Mediterranean region, with extreme aridification over the Sahara and Iberian Peninsula. In these regions, the risk for human health due to the thermal load which accounts for air temperature and humidity is therefore projected to increase significantly with climate change at a level of extreme danger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aerosols may impact precipitation in a complex way involving their direct and indirect effects. In a previous numerical study, the overall microphysical effect of aerosols was found to weaken precipitation through reduced precipitable water and convective instability. The present study aims to quantify the relative importance of these two processes in the reduction of summer precipitation using temperature–precipitation scaling. Based on a numerical sensitivity experiment conducted in central Europe aiming to isolate indirect effects, the results show that, all others effects being equal, the scaling of hourly convective precipitation with temperature follows the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relationship, whereas the decrease in convective precipitation does not scale with the CC law since it is mostly attributable to increased stability with increased aerosol concentration rather than to decreased precipitable water content. This effect is larger at low surface temperatures at which clouds are statistically more frequent and optically thicker. At these temperatures, the increase in stability is mostly linked to the stronger reduction in temperature in the lower troposphere compared to the upper troposphere, which results in lower lapse rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dry spells are natural hazards which have strong impacts on the environment and on many socioeconomic sectors. Their evolution in the Mediterranean Basin is a major issue because it is one of the most extreme hot spots of climate change world-wide. Very long dry spells are defined as climatic events characterized by their location, spatial extent, duration, and recurrence. This study investigates the evolution of these events during the wet season and for regional future climate projections of the Mediterranean and European Coordinated Downscaling Experiment initiatives (called Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX). All simulations were performed with different regional climate models and various climate change scenarios. Main results are (i) an increase in the number of very long dry spells (between + 3 and + 31 events) and (ii) an increase of their mean duration and spatial extent. This increase in the severity of very long dry spells may have strong socioeconomic impacts in particular for the most vulnerable areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work uses a network of GPS stations over Europe from which a homogenized integrated water vapor (IWV) dataset has been retrieved, completed with colocated temperature and precipitation measurements over specific stations to (i) estimate the biases of six regional climate models over Europe in terms of humidity; (ii) understand their origins; and (iii) finally assess the impact of these biases on the frequency of occurrence of precipitation. The evaluated simulations have been performed in the framework of HYMEX/Med-CORDEX programs and cover the Mediterranean area and part of Europe at horizontal resolutions of 50 to 12 km. The analysis shows that models tend to overestimate the low values of IWV and the use of the nudging technique reduces the differences between GPS and simulated IWV. Results suggest that physics of models mostly explain the mean biases, while dynamics affects the variability. The land surface–atmosphere exchanges affect the estimation of IWV over most part of Europe, especially in summer. The limitations of the models to represent these processes explain part of their biases in IWV. However, models correctly simulate the dependance between IWV and temperature, and specifically the deviation that this relationship experiences regarding the Clausius–Clapeyron law after a critical value of temperature (Tbreak). The high spatial variability of Tbreak indicates that it has a strong dependence on local processes which drive the local humidity sources. This explains why the maximum values of IWV are not necessarily observed over warmer areas, which are often dry areas. Finally, it is shown over the SIRTA observatory (near Paris) that the frequency of occurrence of light precipitation is strongly conditioned by the biases in IWV and by the precision of the models to reproduce the distribution of IWV as a function of the temperature. The results of the models indicate that a similar dependence occurs in other areas of Europe, especially where precipitation has a predominantly convective character. According to the observations, for each range of temperature, there is a critical value of IWV from which precipitation starts to increase. The critical values and the probability of exceeding them are simulated with a bias that depends on the model. Those models, which generally present light precipitation too often, show lower critical values and higher probability of exceeding them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indirect effects of aerosols were found to weaken convective precipitation through reduced precipitable water and convective instability. The present study aims at quantifying the relative importance of these two processes in the reduction of summer precipitation using the temperature-precipitation scaling. Based on a numerical sensitivity experiment conducted over central Europe aiming to isolate indirect effects, all others effects being equal, the results show that the scaling of hourly convective precipitation with temperature follows the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship whereas the decrease of convective precipitation does not scale with the CC law since it is mostly attributable to increased stability with increased aerosols concentrations rather than to decreased precipitable water content. This effect is larger at low temperatures for which clouds are statistically more frequent and optically thicker. At these temperatures, the increase of stability is mostly linked to the stronger reduction of temperature in the lower troposphere compared to the upper troposphere which results in lower lapse rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Mediterranean basin, moisture transport can occur over large distance from remote regions by the synoptic circulation or more locally by sea breezes, driven by land-sea thermal contrast. Sea breezes play an important role in inland transport of moisture especially between late spring and early fall. In order to explicitly represent the two-way interactions at the atmosphere-ocean interface in the Mediterranean region and quantify the role of air-sea feedbacks on regional meteorology and climate, simulations at 20 km resolution performed with WRF regional climate model (RCM) and MORCE atmosphere-ocean regional climate model (AORCM) coupling WRF and NEMO-MED12 in the frame of HyMeX/MED-CORDEX are compared. One result of this study is that these simulations reproduce remarkably well the intensity, direction and inland penetration of the sea breeze and even the existence of the shallow sea breeze despite the overestimate of temperature over land in both simulations. The coupled simulation provides a more realistic representation of the evolution of the SST field at fine scale than the atmosphere-only one. Temperature and moisture anomalies are created in direct response to the SST anomaly and are advected by the sea breeze over land. However, the SST anomalies are not of sufficient magnitude to affect the large-scale sea-breeze circulation. The temperature anomalies are quickly damped by strong surface heating over land, whereas the water vapor mixing ratio anomalies are transported further inland. The inland limit of significance is imposed by the vertical dilution in a deeper continental boundary-layer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exploiting the added value of the ensemble of high-resolution model simulations provided by the Med-CORDEX coordinated initiative, an updated assessment of Mediterranean extreme precipitation events as represented in different observational, reanalysis and modelling datasets is presented. A spatiotemporal characterisation of the long-term statistics of extreme precipitation is performed, using a number of different diagnostic indices. Employing a novel approach based on the timing of extreme precipitation events a number of physically consistent subregions are defined. The comparison of different diagnostics over the Mediterranean domain and physically homogeneous sub-domains is presented and discussed, focussing on the relative impact of several model configuration features (resolution, coupling, physical parameterisations) on the performance in reproducing extreme precipitation events. It is found that the agreement between the observed and modelled long-term statistics of extreme precipitation is more sensitive to the model physics, in particular convective parameterisation, than to other model configurations such as resolution and coupling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the potential of spaceborne passive microwave observations for assessing decadal simulations of precipitation from a regional climate model through a model-to-satellite approach. A simulation from the Weather and Research Forecasting model is evaluated against 2002-2012 observations from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit and the Microwave Humidity Sounder over the Mediterranean region using the radiative transfer code Radiative Transfer for Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder. It is first shown that simulated and observed brightness temperatures are consistently correlated for both water vapour and window channels. Yet, although the average simulated and observed brightness temperatures are similar, the range of brightness temperatures is larger in the observations. The difference is presumably due to the too low content of frozen particles in the simulation. To assess this hypothesis, density and altitude of simulated frozen hydrometeors are compared with observations from an airborne cloud radar. Results show that simulated frozen hydrometeors are found at lower median altitude than observed frozen hydrometeors, with an average content at least 5 times inferior. Spatial distributions of observed and simulated precipitation match reasonably well. However, when using simulated brightness temperatures to diagnose rainfall, the simulation performs very poorly. These results highlight the need of providing more realistic frozen hydrometeors content, which will increase the interest of using passive microwave observations for the long-term evaluation of regional models. In particular, significant improvements are expected from the archiving of convective fluxes of precipitating hydrometeors in future regional model simulation programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The region of Valencia in Spain has historically been affected by heavy precipitation events (HPEs). These HPEs are known to be modulated by the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Balearic Sea. Using an atmosphere-ocean regional climate model, we show that more than 70 % of the HPEs in the region of Valencia present a SST cooling larger than the monthly trend in the Northwestern Mediterranean before the HPEs. This is linked to the breaking of a Rossby wave preceding the HPEs: a ridge-trough pattern at mid-levels centered over western France associated with a low-level depression in the Gulf of Genoa precedes the generation of a cut-off low over southern Spain with a surface depression over the Alboran Sea in the lee of the Atlas. This latter situation is favourable to the advection of warm and moist air towards the Mediterranean Spanish coast, possibly leading to HPEs. The depression in the Gulf of Genoa generates intense northerly (Mistral) to northwesterly (Tramontane/Cierzo) winds. In most cases, these intense winds trigger entrainment at the bottom of the oceanic mixed layer which is a mechanism explaining part of the SST cooling in most cases. Our study suggests that the SST cooling due to this strong wind regime then persists until the HPEs and reduces the precipitation intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study we investigate the scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean region by assessing against observations the present day and future regional climate simulations performed in the frame of the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX programs. Over the 1979-2008 period, despite differences in quantitative precipitation simulation across the various models, the change in precipitation extremes with respect to temperature is robust and consistent. The spatial variability of the temperature-precipitation extremes relationship displays a hook shape across the Mediterranean, with negative slope at high temperatures and a slope following Clausius-Clapeyron (CC)-scaling at low temperatures. The temperature at which the slope of the temperature-precipitation extreme relation sharply changes (or temperature break), ranges from about 20 °C in the western Mediterranean to <10 °C in Greece. In addition, this slope is always negative in the arid regions of the Mediterranean. The scaling of the simulated precipitation extremes is insensitive to ocean-atmosphere coupling, while it depends very weakly on the resolution at high temperatures for short precipitation accumulation times. In future climate scenario simulations covering the 2070-2100 period, the temperature break shifts to higher temperatures by a value which is on average the mean regional temperature change due to global warming. The slope of the simulated future temperature-precipitation extremes relationship is close to CC-scaling at temperatures below the temperature break, while at high temperatures, the negative slope is close, but somewhat flatter or steeper, than in the current climate depending on the model. Overall, models predict more intense precipitation extremes in the future. Adjusting the temperature-precipitation extremes relationship in the present climate using the CC law and the temperature shift in the future allows the recovery of the temperature-precipitation extremes relationship in the future climate. This implies negligible regional changes of relative humidity in the future despite the large warming and drying over the Mediterranean. This suggests that the Mediterranean Sea is the primary source of moisture which counteracts the drying and warming impacts on relative humidity in parts of the Mediterranean region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work uses a network of GPS stations over Europe from which a homogenised integrated water vapor (IWV) dataset has been retrieved, completed with colocated temperature and precipitation measurements over specific stations to i) estimate the biases of six regional climate models over Europe in terms of humidity; ii) understand their origins; iii) and finally assess the impact of these biases on the frequency of occurrence of precipitation. The evaluated simulations have been performed in the framework of HYMEX/Med-CORDEX programs and cover the Mediterranean area and part of Europe at horizontal resolutions of 50 to 12km. The analysis shows that models tend to overestimate the low values of IWV and the use of the nudging technique reduces the differences between GPS and simulated IWV. Results suggest that physics of models mostly explain the mean biases, while dynamics affects the variability. The land surface/atmosphere exchanges affect the estimation of IWV over most part of Europe, especially in summer. The limitations of the models to represent these processes explain part of their baises in IWV. However, models correctly simulate the dependance between IWV and temperature, and specifically the deviation that this relationship experiences regarding the Clausius-Clapeyron law after a critical value of temperature (Tbreak). The high spatial variability of Tbreak indicates that it has a strong dependence on local processes which drive the local humidity sources. This explains why the maximum values of IWV are not necessarely observed over warmer area, that are often dry area. Finally, it is shown over SIRTA observatory (near Paris) that the frequency of occurrence of light precipitation is strongly conditioned by the biases in IWV and by the precision of the models to reproduce the distribution of IWV as a function of the temperature. The results of the models indicate that a similar dependence occurs in other areas of Europe, especially where precipitation has a predominantly convective character. According to the observations, for each range of temperature, there is a critical value of IWV from which precipitation picks up. The critical values and the probability to exceed them are simulated with a bias that depends on the model. Those models which present too often light precipitation generally show lower critical values and higher probability to exceed them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Very long dry spell events occurring during winter are natural hazards to which the Mediterranean region is extremely vulnerable, because they can lead numerous impacts for environment and society. Four dry spell patterns have been identified in a previous work. Identifying the main associated atmospheric conditions controlling the dry spell patterns is key to better understand their dynamics and their evolution in a changing climate. Except for the Levant region, the dry spells are generally associated with anticyclonic blocking conditions located about 1000 km to the Northwest of the affected area. These anticyclonic conditions are favourable to dry spell occurrence as they are associated with subsidence of cold and dry air coming from boreal latitudes which bring low amount of water vapour and non saturated air masses, leading to clear sky and absence of precipitation. These extreme dry spells are also partly related to the classical four Euro-Atlantic weather regimes are: the two phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Scandinavian “blocking” or “East-Atlantic”, and the “Atlantic ridge”. Only the The “East-Atlantic”, “Atlantic ridge” and the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation are frequently associated with extremes dry spells over the Mediterranean basin but they do not impact the four dry spell patterns equally. Finally long sequences of those weather regimes are more favourable to extreme dry spells than short sequences. These long sequences are associated with the favourable prolonged and reinforced anticyclonic conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aerosols affect atmospheric dynamics through their direct and semi-direct effects as well as through their effects on cloud microphysics (indirect effects). The present study investigates the indirect effects of aerosols on summer precipitation in the Euro-Mediterranean region, which is located at the crossroads of air masses carrying both natural and anthropogenic aerosols. While it is difficult to disentangle the indirect effects of aerosols from the direct and semidirect effects in reality, a numerical sensitivity experiment is carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which allows us to isolate indirect effects, all other effects being equal. The Mediterranean hydrological cycle has often been studied using regional climate model (RCM) simulations with parameterized convection, which is the approach we adopt in the present study. For this purpose, the Thompson aerosol-aware microphysics scheme is used in a pair of simulations run at 50 km resolution with extremely high and low aerosol concentrations. An additional pair of simulations has been performed at a convection-permitting resolution (3.3 km) to examine these effects without the use of parameterized convection. While the reduced radiative flux due to the direct effects of the aerosols is already known to reduce precipitation amounts, there is still no general agreement on the sign and magnitude of the aerosol indirect forcing effect on precipitation, with various processes competing with each other. Although some processes tend to enhance precipitation amounts, some others tend to reduce them. In these simulations, increased aerosol loads lead to weaker precipitation in the parameterized (low-resolution) configuration. The fact that a similar result is obtained for a selected area in the convection-permitting (high-resolution) configuration allows for physical interpretations. By examining the key variables in the model outputs, we propose a causal chain that links the aerosol effects on microphysics to their simulated effect on precipitation, essentially through reduction of the radiative heating of the surface and corresponding reductions of surface temperature, resulting in increased atmospheric stability in the presence of high aerosol loads. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) Special Observing Period 2 (SOP2, January 27-March 15, 2013) was dedicated to the study of dense water formation in the Gulf of Lion in the northwestern Mediterranean. This paper outlines the deep convection of winter 2012-2013 and the meteorological conditions that produced it. Alternating phases of mixing and restratification are related to periods of high and low heat losses, respectively. High-resolution, realistic, three-dimensional models are essential for assessing the intricacy of buoyancy fluxes, horizontal advection, and convective processes. At the submesoscale, vertical velocities resulting from symmetric instabilities of the density front bounding the convection zone are crucial for ventilating the deep ocean. Finally, concomitant atmospheric and oceanic data extracted from the comprehensive SOP2 data set highlight the rapid, coupled evolution of oceanic and atmospheric boundary layer characteristics during a strong wind event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) can be a major cause of damage and casualties in the Mediterranean basin. With the use of atmosphere-ocean coupled regional climate models (AORCMs) and the advantage of 24 years of simulation (1989-2012), we identified regions with potential impact of submonthly air-sea coupling on HPEs from among the regions hit by heavy rain during the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) first special observation period (SOP1): Valencia in Spain, the Cévennes in Southern France, Liguria in Northwestern Italy, Calabria in Southern Italy and Northeastern Italy. A first evaluation of the two AORCMs (MORCE and CNRM-RCSM4) against gridded precipitation datasets showed that 70-90% of the 30 most intense HPEs simulated were observed HPEs for most regions. The Cévennes, Valencia and Calabria were the only three regions to show a statistical relationship between rain differences and sea-surface temperature (SST) differences where the low-level jets that feed the events most frequently blow. This sensitivity of precipitation to SST changes is due to low-level wind changes related to changes in surface heat fluxes. Based on the calculation of submonthly variations in these regions during HyMeX, HPEs on 28 September 2012 and 12 October 2012 in Valencia and on 25-26 October 2012 in the Cévennes have most probably been affected by submonthly air-sea coupling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind-speed statistics are generally modelled using the Weibull distribution. However, the Weibull distribution is based on empirical rather than physical justification and might display strong limitations for its applications. Here, we derive wind-speed distributions analytically with different assumptions on the wind components to model wind anisotropy, wind extremes and multiple wind regimes. We quantitatively confront these distributions with an extensive set of meteorological data (89 stations covering various sub-climatic regions in France) to identify distributions that perform best and the reasons for this, and we analyze the sensitivity of the proposed distributions to the diurnal to seasonal variability. We find that local topography, unsteady wind fluctuations as well as persistent wind regimes are determinants for the performances of these distributions, as they induce anisotropy or non-Gaussian fluctuations of the wind components. A Rayleigh-Rice distribution is proposed to model the combination of weak isotropic wind and persistent wind regimes. It outperforms all other tested distributions (Weibull, elliptical and non-Gaussian) and is the only proposed distribution able to catch accurately the diurnal and seasonal variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global and regional climate model (GCM and RCM) outputs are often used as climate forcing for ecological impact models, and this potentially results in large cumulative errors because information and error are passed sequentially along the modeling chain from GCM to RCM to impact model. There are also a growing number of Earth system modeling platforms in which climate and ecological models are dynamically coupled, and in this case error amplification due to feedbacks can lead to even more serious problems. It is essential in both cases to rethink the organization of evaluation which typically relies on independent validation at each successive step, and to rely more heavily on analyses that cover the full modeling chain and thus require stronger interactions between climate and impact modelers. In this paper, we illustrate the benefits of using impact models as an additional source of information for evaluating climate models. Four RCMs that are part of the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in Mediterranean EXperiment) and Mediterranean CORDEX projects (MED-CORDEX) were tested with observed climatology and a process-based model of European beech ( Fagus sylvatica L.) tree growth and forest ecosystem functioning that has been rigorously validated. This two part analysis i) indicates that evaluation of RCMs on climate variables alone may be insufficient to determine the suitability of RCMs for studies of climate-forest interactions and ii) points to areas of improvement in these RCMs that would improve impact studies or behavior in coupled climate-ecosystem models over the spatial domain studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents and analyzes the three-dimensional dynamical structure of intense Mediterranean cyclones. The analysis is based on a composite approach of the 200 most intense cyclones during the period 1989-2008 that have been identified and tracked using the output of a coupled ocean-atmosphere regional simulation with 20 km horizontal grid spacing and 3-hourly output. It is shown that the most intense Mediterranean cyclones have a common baroclinic life cycle with a potential vorticity (PV) streamer associated with an upper-level cyclonic Rossby wave breaking, which precedes cyclogenesis in the region and triggers baroclinic instability. It is argued that this common baroclinic life cycle is due to the strongly horizontally sheared environment in the Mediterranean basin, on the poleward flank of the quasi-persistent subtropical jet. The composite life cycle of the cyclones is further analyzed considering the evolution of key atmospheric elements as potential temperature and PV, as well as the cyclones' thermodynamic profiles and rainfall. It is shown that most intense Mediterranean cyclones are associated with warm conveyor belts and dry air intrusions, similar to those of other strong extratropical cyclones, but of rather small scale. Before cyclones reach their mature stage, the streamer's role is crucial to advect moist and warm air towards the cyclones center. These dynamical characteristics, typical for very intense extratropical cyclones in the main storm track regions, are also valid for these Mediterranean cases that have features that are visually similar to tropical cyclones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional climate modelling sometimes requires that the regional model be nudged towards the large-scale driving data to avoid the development of inconsistencies between them. These inconsistencies are known to produce large surface temperature and rainfall artefacts. Therefore, it is essential to maintain the synoptic circulation within the simulation domain consistent with the synoptic circulation at the domain boundaries. Nudging techniques, initially developed for data assimilation purposes, are increasingly used in regional climate modeling and offer a workaround to this issue. In this context, several questions on the 'optimal' use of nudging are still open. In this study we focus on a specific question which is: What variable should we nudge? in order to maintain the consistencies between the regional model and the driving fields as much as possible. For that, a 'Big Brother Experiment', where a reference atmospheric state is known, is conducted using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model over the Euro-Mediterranean region. A set of 22 3-month simulations is performed with different sets of nudged variables and nudging options (no nudging, indiscriminate nudging, spectral nudging) for summer and winter. The results show that nudging clearly improves the model capacity to reproduce the reference fields. However the skill scores depend on the set of variables used to nudge the regional climate simulations. Nudging the tropospheric horizontal wind is by far the key variable to nudge to simulate correctly surface temperature and wind, and rainfall. To a lesser extent, nudging tropospheric temperature also contributes to significantly improve the simulations. Indeed, nudging tropospheric wind or temperature directly impacts the simulation of the tropospheric geopotential height and thus the synoptic scale atmospheric circulation. Nudging moisture improves the precipitation but the impact on the other fields (wind and temperature) is not significant. As an immediate consequence, nudging tropospheric wind, temperature and moisture in WRF gives by far the best results with respect to the Big-Brother simulation. However, we noticed that a residual bias of the geopotential height persists due to a negative surface pressure anomaly which suggests that surface pressure is the missing quantity to nudge. Nudging the geopotential has no discernible effect. Finally, it should be noted that the proposed strategy ensures a dynamical consistency between the driving field and the simulated small-scale field but it does not ensure the best 'observed' fine scale field because of the possible impact of incorrect driving large-scale field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean Sea water budget (MWB) is a key parameter, as it controls the Mediterranean Sea water loss and thus the Atlantic Water inflow and the Mediterranean general circulation. More accurately, the MWB controls the net flow through the Strait of Gibraltar, which implies both inflow and outflow. Generally considered at the basin scale and over long-term periods, the MWB is in fact characterized by a large variability in space and time, induced by the complex topography of the region, mesoscale processes and (short) intense events in the ocean and atmosphere compartments. In this study, we use an ocean-atmosphere coupled system at mesoscale able to represent such phenomena, to evaluate the MWB atmospheric components: Evaporation (E) and Precipitation (P). We compare two companion regional simulations: an uncoupled atmospheric run using the ERA-interim Sea Surface Temperature (SST) reanalysis and a coupled run using the MORCE system with the two-way coupling between the NEMO-MED12 eddy-resolving ocean model and the non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting atmospheric model. We first evaluate the SST validity against satellite data and evidence the coupled system ability in representing SST mesoscale structures, characteristics of the Mediterranean circulation and of small-scale ocean processes, despite a colder mean value and a lower amplitude of the annual cycle. Then, the comparison aims to examine the coupled processes effects (meaning the impacts of the interactive high-resolution and high-frequency SST) on E and P and on their variability. The comparison highlights that the SST is the controlling factor for E and P budgets, with reduction by 6 and 3 % in the coupled run compared to the uncoupled run, respectively. The modifications propagate until 750 km inland far from the Mediterranean coast, as towards the Atlantic Ocean and the Black Sea. This indicates that coupling plays a major role in distributing water at mesoscale. The coupling directly modifies the seasonal variability. It also significantly decreases extreme evaporation and precipitation occurences and intensities. This extreme events mitigation in the coupled run contributes for ~50 % to the decrease in the E and P budgets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The representation of Mediterranean intense rain events in regional coupled models is of great importance for impact studies of climate change. It is investigated through the comparison of an atmosphere-only simulation forced by a coarse-resolution sea-surface temperature (SST), an atmosphere-ocean coupled simulation generating a high-resolution SST and an atmosphere-only simulation forced by a high-resolution monthly smoothed SST. The Cévennes, located in Southern France, is a region of high interest because of its frequent intense rain events and the proximity of the Gulf of Lion, where intense air-sea exchanges happen during mistral and tramontane wind bursts. Focus is given to one of the most intense rain events of the 20 year simulations (1989-2009): 19 September 1996, for which the change in the rain location between the atmosphere-ocean simulation and the atmosphere-only simulation forced by the coarse-resolution SST is large. In this case, the change in the rain location can be attributed mainly to a long-term change in the SST of 1.5 K, with a smaller but significant contribution of submonthly coupled effects such as cooling of the SST in the Gulf of Lion after moderate mistral events that occurred before the precipitation event. The change in the location of precipitation is related to a wind change of 5ms−1. This wind deviation originated from the combined effects of a surface pressure anomaly, stronger stratification on the western side of the coastal front in the Gulf of Lion and the enhanced blocking effect of the Alps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of high resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled regional climate models to study possible future climate changes in the Mediterranean Sea requires an accurate simulation of the atmospheric component of the water budget (i.e., evaporation, precipitation and runoff). A specific configuration of the version 3.1 of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) regional climate model was shown to systematically overestimate the Mediterranean Sea water budget mainly due to an excess of evaporation (~1,450 mm yr) compared with observed estimations (~1,150 mm yr). In this article, a 70-member multi-physics ensemble is used to try to understand the relative importance of various sub-grid scale processes in the Mediterranean Sea water budget and to evaluate its representation by comparing simulated results with observed-based estimates. The physics ensemble was constructed by performing 70 1-year long simulations using version 3.3 of the WRF model by combining six cumulus, four surface/planetary boundary layer and three radiation schemes. Results show that evaporation variability across the multi-physics ensemble (∼10 % of the mean evaporation) is dominated by the choice of the surface layer scheme that explains more than ∼70 % of the total variance and that the overestimation of evaporation in WRF simulations is generally related with an overestimation of surface exchange coefficients due to too large values of the surface roughness parameter and/or the simulation of too unstable surface conditions. Although the influence of radiation schemes on evaporation variability is small (∼13 % of the total variance), radiation schemes strongly influence exchange coefficients and vertical humidity gradients near the surface due to modifications of temperature lapse rates. The precipitation variability across the physics ensemble (∼35 % of the mean precipitation) is dominated by the choice of both cumulus (∼55 % of the total variance) and planetary boundary layer (∼32 % of the total variance) schemes with a strong regional dependence. Most members of the ensemble underestimate total precipitation amounts with biases as large as 250 mm yr over the whole Mediterranean Sea compared with ERA Interim reanalysis mainly due to an underestimation of the number of wet days. The larger number of dry days in simulations is associated with a deficit in the activation of cumulus schemes. Both radiation and planetary boundary layer schemes influence precipitation through modifications on the available water vapor in the boundary layer generally tied with changes in evaporation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of soil moisture-temperature feedback during heatwaves occurring over France between 1989 and 2008. Two simulations of the weather research and forecasting regional model have been analysed, with two different land-surface models. One resolves the hydrology and is able to simulate summer dryness, while the other prescribes constant and high soil moisture and hence no soil moisture deficit. The sensitivity analysis conducted for all heatwave episodes highlights different soil moisture-temperature responses (1) over low-elevation plains, (2) over mountains and (3) over coastal regions. In the plains, soil moisture deficit induces less evapotranspiration and higher sensible heat flux. This has the effect of heating the planetary boundary layer and at the same time of creating a general condition of higher convective instability and a slight increase of shallow cloud cover. A positive feedback is created which increases the temperature anomaly during the heatwaves. In mountainous regions, enhanced heat fluxes over dry soil reinforce upslope winds producing strong vertical motion over the mountain slope, first triggered by thermal convection. This, jointly to the instability conditions, favors convection triggering and produces clouds and precipitation over the mountains, reducing the temperature anomaly. In coastal regions, dry soil enhances land/sea thermal contrast, strengthening sea-breeze circulation and moist cold marine air advection. This damps the magnitude of the heatwave temperature anomaly in coastal areas, expecially near the Mediterranean coast. Hence, along with heating in the plains, soil dryness can also have a significant cooling effect over mountains and coastal regions due to meso-scale circulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this work is to gain a general insight into the key mechanisms involved in the impact of nudging on the large scales and the small scales of a regional climate simulation. A 'Big Brother experiment' (BBE) approach is used where a 'reference atmosphere' is known, unlike when regional climate models are used in practice. The main focus is on the sensitivity to nudging time, but the BBE approach allows to go beyond a pure sensitivity study by providing a reference which model outputs try to approach, defining an optimal nudging time. Elaborating upon previous idealized studies, this work introduces key novel points. The BBE approach to optimal nudging is used with a realistic model, here the weather research and forecasting model over the European and Mediterranean regions. A winter simulation (1 December 1989-28 February 1990) and a summer simulation (1 June 1999-31 August 1999) with a 50 km horizontal mesh grid have been performed with initial and boundary conditions provided by the ERA-interim reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast to produce the 'reference atmosphere'. The impacts of spectral and indiscriminate nudging are compared all others things being equal and as a function of nudging time. The impact of other numerical parameters, specifically the domain size and update frequency of the large-scale driving fields, on the sensitivity of the optimal nudging time is investigated. The nudged simulations are also compared to non-nudged simulations. Similarity between the reference and the simulations is evaluated for the surface temperature, surface wind and for rainfall, key variables for climate variability analysis and impact studies. These variables are located in the planetary boundary layer, which is not subject to nudging. Regarding the determination of a possible optimal nudging time, the conclusion is not the same for indiscriminate nudging (IN) and spectral nudging and depends on the update frequency of the driving large-scale fields τ. For IN, the optimal nudging time is around τ = 3 h for almost all cases. For spectral nudging, the best results are for the smallest value of τ used for the simulations (τ = 1 h) for frequent update of the driving large-scale fields (3 and 6 h). The optimal nudging time is 3 for 12 h interval between two consecutive driving large-scale fields due to time sampling errors. In terms of resemblance to the reference fields, the differences between the simulations performed with IN and spectral nudging are small. A possible reason for this very similar performance is that nudging is active only above the planetary boundary layer where small-scale features are less energetic. As expected from previous studies, the impact of nudging is weaker for a smaller domain size. However the optimal nudging time itself is not sensitive to domain size. The proposed strategy ensures a dynamical consistency between the driving field and the simulated small-scale field but it does not ensure the best 'observed' fine scale field because of the possible impact of incorrect driving large-scale field. This type of downscaling provides an upper bound on the skill possible for recent historical past and twenty-first century projections. The optimal nudging strategy with respect to dynamic downscaling could add skill whenever the parent global model has some level of skill. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constellations of driftsonde systems- gondolas floating in the stratosphere and able to release dropsondes upon command- have so far been used in three major field experiments from 2006 through 2010. With them, high-quality, high-resolution, in situ atmospheric profiles were made over extended periods in regions that are otherwise very difficult to observe. The measurements have unique value for verifying and evaluating numerical weather prediction models and global data assimilation systems; they can be a valuable resource to validate data from remote sensing instruments, especially on satellites, but also airborne or ground-based remote sensors. These applications for models and remote sensors result in a powerful combination for improving data assimilation systems. Driftsondes also can support process studies in otherwise difficult locations-for example, to study factors that control the development or decay of a tropical disturbance, or to investigate the lower boundary layer over the interior Antarctic continent. The driftsonde system is now a mature and robust observing system that can be combined with flight-level data to conduct multidisciplinary research at heights well above that reached by current research aircraft. In this article we describe the development and capabilities of the driftsonde system, the exemplary science resulting from its use to date, and some future applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a statistical method to reconstruct continuous atmospheric fields on various pressure levels, given a constraint at the surface. The method is based on analogues of circulation and taking into consideration the time sequence of the analogues. The method is tested on the 2001-2011 period, with an emphasis on the year 2010. We base the atmospheric reconstruction on reanalysis data from 1948 to 2000, and use a constraint of sea-level pressure for 2001-2011. The pattern correlation scores appear to be significant most of the time, although score flaws are occasionally detected. Those flaws are mainly due to the time continuity constraint that is imposed on the reconstruction, which lowers the possibility of finding matching analogues. This method offers an ensemble of atmospheric reconstructions, and presents a computationally cheap alternative to data assimilation for a climate model, although with lower scores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ekman flow, an exact solution of the Boussinesq equations with rotation, is a prototype flow for both atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers. The effect of stratification on the finite-amplitude longitudinal rolls developing in the Ekman flow and their three-dimensional stability is studied by means of linearized and nonlinear numerical simulations. Similarities and differences with respect to billows developing in the Kelvin–Helmholtz (KH) unidirectional stratified shear flow are discussed. Prandtl number effects are investigated as well as the role played by the buoyant-convective instability. For low Prandtl number, the amplitude of the saturated rolls vanishes at the critical bulk Richardson number, while at high Prandtl number, finite-amplitude rolls are found. The Prandtl number also affects how the growth rate of the secondary instability evolves as the Richardson number is increased. For low Prandtl number, the growth rate decreases as the Richardson number increases while it remains significant for large Prandtl number over the range of stratification studied. This behaviour is likely a result of the differing amplitudes of the roll vortices. Furthermore, the most unstable wave vector is much lower than for the secondary instability of KH billows. Examination of the energetics of the secondary instability shows that buoyant-convective instability is present locally at high Reynolds and Prandtl numbers but plays an overall minor role despite the presence in the base flow of statically unstable regions characterized by a high Richardson number. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]