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CO2 capture from coal power plants is an important and necessary solution to realizing carbon neutrality in China, but CCS demonstration deployment in power sector is far behind expectations. Hence, the reduction potential of energy consumption and cost for CCS and its competitiveness to renewable powers are very important to make roadmaps and policies toward carbon neutrality. Unlike the popular recognition that capturing CO2 from flue gases is technically and commercially mature, this paper notes that it has been proved to be technically feasible but far beyond technology maturity and high energy penalty leads to its immaturity and therefore causes high cost. Additionally, the potential energy penalty reduction of capture is investigated thermodynamically, and future CO2 avoidance cost is predicted and compared to renewable power (solar PV and onshore wind power). Results show that energy penalty for CO2 capture can be reduced by 48%-57%. When installation capacity reaches a similar scale to that of solar PV in China (250 GW), CO2 capture cost in coal power plants can be reduced from the current 28-40 US$/ton to 10-20 US$/ton, and efficiency upgrade contributes to 67%-75% in cost reduction for high coal price conditions. In China, CO2 capture in coal power plants can be cost competitive with solar PV and onshore wind power. But it is worth noting that the importance and share of CCS role in CO2 emission reduction is decreasing since renewable power is already well deployed and there is still a lack of large-scale CO2 capture demonstrations in China. Innovative capture technologies with low energy penalties need to be developed to promote CCS. Results in this work can provide informative references for making roadmaps and policies regarding CO2 emission reductions that contribute towards carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]