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Aim: Given the rapid pace of climate change and its significant impact on species distribution and survival, understanding the dynamics of ecological niches over time becomes imperative. By employing ecological niche models and species distribution models, alongside analyses of historical occurrence records and palaeoclimatic data, we aimed to assess the extent of changes in the niche of Porites astreoides from the Holocene to the present. Specifically, we quantified the amount of: (1) niche stability, (2) niche expansion, (3) niche decline and (4) niche overlap in both the environmental and geographical space. Location: Atlantic Ocean. Taxon: Cnidarian, Scleractinia. Materials and Methods: Through fossil and current records and environmental variables from the same periods, we use two ecological niche modelling approaches (overlap and maximum entropy) to analyse niche dynamics in environmental and geographical space, specifically the degree of expansion, stability and loss of niches over the last ~8000 years. We used a principal component analysis to build the models within two different calibration areas (minimum convex polygon and buffer). Results: Our results were similar, except for the loss of habitat, across the calibration areas used to build the models. The PCA used to build the models accounts for more than 65% of the variation in the data. Most of the environmental niche remained stable with an increase of almost a third and a negligible loss. Models in geographical space showed that most of the suitable area remained stable, but the species expanded its range from the Caribbean to the coast of Brazil. The analysis also showed a high value of niche overlap in environmental and geographical spaces. Main Conclusions: The species studied is one of the corals with the greatest capacity to adapt to new environments and locations, but it also has a high tendency to preserve niche traits. These characteristics helped the species to expand its environmental and geographical niche in a period of relative climatic stability. On the other hand, these same characteristics of niche conservatism can lead the species to population decline and habitat loss, if the speed of adaptation is lower than the rapid climate changes predicted for the middle and end of the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is no scientific consensus about whether and how species' evolutionary age, or the elapsed time since their origination, might affect their probability of going extinct. Different age-dependent extinction (ADE) patterns have been proposed in theoretical and empirical studies, while the existence of a consistent and universal pattern across the tree of life remains debated. If evolutionary age predicts species extinction probability, then the study of ADE should comprise the elapsed time and the ecological process acting on species from their origin to their extinction or to the present for extant species. Additionally, given that closely related species share traits associated with fitness, evolutionary proximity could generate similar ADE patterns. Considering the historical context and extinction selectivity based on evolutionary relatedness, we build on previous theoretical work to formalize the Clade Replacement Theory (CRT) as a framework that considers the ecological and evolutionary aspects of species age and extinction probability to produce testable predictions on ADE patterns. CRT's domain is the diversification dynamics of two or more clades competing for environmental space throughout time, and its propositions or derived hypotheses are as follows: (i) incumbency effects by an early arriving clade that limit the colonization and the diversification of a younger clade leading to a negative ADE scenario (younger species more prone to extinction than older ones) and (ii) an ecological shift triggered by an environmental change that imposes a new selective regime over the environmental space and leads to a positive ADE scenario (extinction probability increasing with age). From these propositions, we developed the prediction that the ADE scenario would be defined by whether an ecological shift happens or not. We discuss how the CRT could be tested with empirical data and provide examples where it could be applied. We hope this article will provide a common ground to unify results from different fields and foster new empirical tests of the mechanisms derived here while providing insights into CRT theoretical structuration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although climate‐based hypotheses are widely used to explain large‐scale diversity patterns, they fall short of explaining the spatial variation among taxonomic groups. Integrating food web and metabolic theories into macroecology is a promising step forward, as they allow including explicit taxon‐specific traits that can potentially mediate the relationship between climate and diversity. Our investigation focuses on the role of body size and trophic structure in mediating the influence of contemporary climate and historical climate change on global tetrapods species richness. We used piecewise structural equation modeling to assess the direct effects of contemporary climate and climate instability of species richness and the indirect effects of climate on tetrapod richness mediated by community‐wide species traits. We found that birds and mammals are less sensitive to the direct effect of contemporary climate than amphibians and squamates. Contemporary climate and climate instability favored the species richness of mammals and amphibians. However, for birds and squamates, this link is only associated with contemporary climate. Moreover, we showed that community‐wide traits are correlated with species richness gradients. However, we highlight that this relationship is dependent upon the specific traits and taxonomic groups. Specifically, bird communities with smaller bodies and bottom‐heavy structures support higher species richness. Squamates also tend to be more diverse in communities with prevalence of smaller bodies, while mammals are correlated with top‐heavy structures. Moreover, we showed that higher contemporary climate and climate instability reduce the species richness of birds and mammals through community‐wide traits and indirectly increase squamate species richness. We also showed that body size and trophic structure are driving a global asymmetric response of tetrapod diversity to climate effects, which highlights the limitation to use the "typical" climate‐based hypotheses. Furthermore, by combining multiple theories, our research contributes to a more realistic and mechanistic understanding of diversity patterns across taxonomic groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main objectives of ecology is to understand how species abundance varies in space. Throughout the distribution of a species, a population is expected to increase its abundance where environmental conditions are most suitable for survival and reproduction. It is possible to evaluate environmental suitability and species distribution with ecological niche modelling regarding predictors of interest.Suitability measures derived from ecological niche models have primarily been used as proxies for abundance, mainly for conservation purposes. However, the suitability–abundance pattern is far from general, with several local biotic and abiotic factors and demographic causes that may interfere with this relationship. We evaluated the relationship between suitability and the local abundance of four Eulaema (Apidae: Euglossini) species.We modelled the ecological niche of the species and evaluated its relationship to local abundance values across the Amazon Forest. Given our results, there was no significant relationship between climate suitability and abundance. We used quantile regression to examine whether climate suitability limited species abundance, which confirmed our result that climate suitability model estimates are not related to the abundance of Eulaema species. Our results suggest that the relationship between climatic suitability and abundance cannot be generalised to the orchid bee species in Amazon Forest, and, probably, the abundance of these species reflects variables on smaller spatial scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Body size and shape fundamentally determine organismal energy requirements by modulating heat and mass exchange with the environment and the costs of locomotion, thermoregulation, and maintenance. Ecologists have long used the physical linkage between morphology and energy balance to explain why the body size and shape of many organisms vary across climatic gradients, e.g., why larger endotherms are more common in colder regions. However, few modeling exercises have aimed at investigating this link from first principles. Body size evolution in bats contrasts with the patterns observed in other endotherms, probably because physical constraints on flight limit morphological adaptations. Here, we develop a biophysical model based on heat transfer and aerodynamic principles to investigate energy constraints on morphological evolution in bats. Our biophysical model predicts that the energy costs of thermoregulation and flight, respectively, impose upper and lower limits on the relationship of wing surface area to body mass (S-MR), giving rise to an optimal S-MR at which both energy costs are minimized. A comparative analysis of 278 species of bats supports the model's prediction that S-MR evolves toward an optimal shape and that the strength of selection is higher among species experiencing greater energy demands for thermoregulation in cold climates. Our study suggests that energy costs modulate the mode of morphological evolution in bats--hence shedding light on a long-standing debate over bats' conformity to ecogeographical patterns observed in other mammals--and offers a procedure for investigating complex macroecological patterns from first principles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The Island Rule—that is, the tendency for body size to decrease in large mammals and increase in small mammals on islands has been commonly evaluated through macroecological or macroevolutionary, pattern‐orientated approaches, which generally fail to model the microevolutionary processes driving either dwarfing or gigantism. Here, we seek to identify which microevolutionary process could have driven extreme insular dwarfism in the extinct dwarf red deer population on the island of Jersey. Location: Jersey, UK (Channel Islands). Taxon: Red deer (Cervus elaphus). Methods: We applied an individual‐based quantitative genetics model parameterized with red deer life‐history data to study the evolution of dwarfism in Jersey's deer, considering variations in island area and isolation through time due to sea level changes. Results: The body size of red deer on Jersey decreased fast early on, due to phenotypic plasticity, then kept decreasing almost linearly over time down to the actual body size of the Jersey deer (36 kg on average). Only 1% of 10,000 replicates failed to reach that size in our simulations. The distribution of time to adaptation in these simulations was right skewed, with a median of 395 generations (equivalent to roughly 4 kyr), with complete dwarfism effectively occurring in less than 6 kyr 84.6% of times. About 72% of the variation in the time to adaptation between simulations was collectively explained by higher mutational variance, the number of immigrants from the continent after isolation, available genetic variance, heritability, and phenotypic plasticity. Main Conclusions: The extreme dwarfing of red deer on Jersey is an expected outcome of high mutational variance, high immigration rate, a wide adaptive landscape, low levels of inbreeding, and high phenotypic plasticity (in the early phase of dwarfing), all occurring within a time window of around 6 kyr. Our model reveals how extreme dwarfism is a plausible outcome of common, well‐known evolutionary processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pandemic state of COVID-19 caused by the SARS CoV-2 put the world in quarantine, led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and is causing an unprecedented economic crisis. However, COVID-19 is spreading in different rates at different countries. Here, we tested the effect of three classes of predictors, i.e., socioeconomic, climatic and transport, on the rate of daily increase of COVID-19 on its exponential phase. We found that population size and global connections, represented by countries' importance in the global air transportation network, are the main explanations for the early growth rate of COVID-19 in different countries. Climate and socioeconomics had no significant effect in this big picture analysis. Our results indicate that the current claims that the growth rate of COVID-19 may be lower in warmer and humid countries should be taken very carefully, risking to disturb well-established and effective policy of social isolation that may help to avoid higher mortality rates due to the collapse of national health systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation strategies aiming to safeguard species genetic diversity in the Cerrado are urgent. The biome is an agriculture frontier and lost at least 50% of its natural capital since the early 1950s, with the highest rate of vegetation clearing among all Brazilian biomes. Here we match information on geographic range shifts in response to climate changes and habitat loss to define conservation priorities for species genetic diversity using Eugenia dysenterica, a widely distributed tree across the Brazilian Cerrado. We found a set of 27 optimal solutions in which a minimum of 12 out of 23 populations are necessary to represent all 208 alleles of the species. Environmental suitability predicted for 2050 was higher for populations in the southern region of the Cerrado, whereas the proportion of natural remnants around populations expected for 2030 was lower in this same region. Thus, it seems to be more conservative to adopt "in situ" strategies in the northwestern part of the species range to hold more genetic diversity in areas harboring high numbers of natural remnants, despite the likely reduction in climatic suitability. On the other hand, in the southern and southeastern region of the range, despite more stability from a climatic point of view, there was a serious constraint given the high levels of human occupation; in this case, "ex situ" strategies might be a better option for the species. Our results and proposed priorities enable different strategies for making an operational approach for conservation of genetic diversity. Adopting different prioritization strategies for stable and unstable regions (both in climatic suitability and natural remnants) in the future would allow, in principle, to avoid "the worst of both worlds" to achieve an efficient conservation program for the species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Despite longstanding investigation, the gradients of species richness remain unknown for most taxa because of shortfalls in knowledge regarding the quantity and distribution of species. Here, we explore the ability of a geostatistical interpolation model, regression‐kriging, to recover geographical gradients of species richness. We examined the technique with an in silico gradient of species richness and evaluated the effect of different configurations of knowledge shortfalls. We also took the same approach for empirical data with large knowledge gaps, the infraorder Furnariides of suboscine birds. Innovation: Regression‐kriging builds upon two cornerstones of geographical gradients of biodiversity, the spatial autocorrelation of species richness and the conspicuous association of species with environmental factors. With this technique, we recovered a simulated gradient of richness using < 0.01% of sampling sites across the region. The accuracy of the regression‐kriging is higher when input samples are more evenly distributed throughout the geographical space rather than the environmental space of the target region. Moreover, the accuracy of this method is more sensitive to the sufficiency of sampling effort within cells than to the quantity of sampled localities. For Furnariides birds, regression‐kriging provided a geographical gradient of species richness that resembles purported patterns of other groups and illustrated ubiquitous shortfalls of knowledge about bird diversity. Main conclusions: Geostatistical interpolation, such as regression‐kriging, might be a useful tool to overcome shortfalls in knowledge that plague our understanding of geographical gradients of biodiversity, with many applications in ecology, palaeoecology and conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is amongst the main threats to biodiversity. Considering extant mammals endured Quaternary climate change, we analyzed the extent to which this past change predicts current mammals’ extinction risk at global and biogeographical scales. We accessed range dynamics by modeling the potential distribution of all extant terrestrial mammals in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) and in current climate conditions and used extinction risk from IUCN red list. We built General Linear Mixed-Effects Models to test the magnitude with which the variation in geographic range (ΔRange) and a proxy for abundance (ΔSuitability) between the LGM and present-day predicts current mammal’s extinction risk. We found past climate change most strongly reduced the geographical range and climatic suitability of threatened rather than non-threatened mammals. Quaternary range contractions and reduced suitability explain around 40% of species extinction risk, particularly for small-bodied mammals. At global and biogeographical scales, all groups that suffered significant Quaternary range contractions now contain a greater proportion of threatened species when compared to groups whose ranges did not significantly contract. This reinforces the importance of using historical range contractions as a key predictor of extinction risk for species in the present and future climate change scenarios and supports current efforts to fight climate change for biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Despite the widespread use of ecological niche models (ENMs) for predicting the responses of species to climate change, these models do not explicitly incorporate any population‐level mechanism. On the other hand, mechanistic models adding population processes (e.g. biotic interactions, dispersal and adaptive potential to abiotic conditions) are much more complex and difficult to parameterize, especially if the goal is to predict range shifts for many species simultaneously. In particular, the adaptive potential (based on genetic adaptations, phenotypic plasticity and behavioral adjustments for physiological responses) of local populations has been a less studied mechanism affecting species' responses to climatic change so far. Here, we discuss and apply an alternative macroecological framework to evaluate the potential role of evolutionary rescue under climate change based on ENMs. We begin by reviewing eco‐evolutionary models that evaluate the maximum sustainable evolutionary rate under a scenario of environmental change, showing how they can be used to understand the impact of temperature change on a Neotropical anuran species, the Schneider's toad Rhinella diptycha. Then we show how to evaluate spatial patterns of species' geographic range shift using such models, by estimating evolutionary rates at the trailing edge of species distribution estimated by ENMs and by recalculating the relative amount of total range loss under climate change. We show how different models can reduce the expected range loss predicted for the studied species by potential ecophysiological adaptations in some regions of the trailing edge predicted by ENMs. For general applications, we believe that parameters for large numbers of species and populations can be obtained from macroecological generalizations (e.g. allometric equations and ecogeographical rules), so our framework coupling ENMs with eco‐evolutionary models can be applied to achieve a more accurate picture of potential impacts from climate change and other threats to biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is facing an unprecedented set of challenges in balancing the effects of economic development and global climate change with environmental protection and maintaining biodiversity. Although positive steps have been undertaken to remedy this situation, currently 80% of China’s 25 extant primate species are threatened, 15-18 species have population sizes of less than 3000 individuals, and two species of gibbons and one species of langur have been extirpated over the past few decades. Today, virtually all species of primates in China inhabit fragmented landscapes and are distributed in small isolated subpopulations with limited opportunities to exchange individuals or genetic information. Here we present a historical framework examining how human-induced environmental changes, particularly since the second half of the 20th century, accelerated primate population decline in China. In addition, we modeled the expected spatial conflict between agricultural expansion and primate distributions over the next 25-75 years and assessed the current overlap between protected areas and primate distributions. Depending on the assumptions of the spatial conflict model, primate distributions are expected to decline by an additional 51-87% by the year 2100. Thus, unless large-scale conservation policies are implemented immediately the current trend of primate population decline, local extirpation, and species extinctions will accelerate. To mitigate against such extinction scenarios, we advocate the creation of a Chinese national agency and repository of environmental information focused on public awareness and education, the implementation of targeted programs of habitat restoration designed to return impacted forests to a more natural state especially within and at the boundaries of nature reserves, the establishment of additional protect areas, and the construction of a latticework of corridors connecting isolated primate subpopulations. This comprehensive approach offers the most effective way to protect China’s animal and plant biodiversity, including its endangered primate populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Primates occur in 90 countries, but four--Brazil, Madagascar, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)--harbor 65% of the world's primate species (439) and 60% of these primates are Threatened, Endangered, or Critically Endangered (IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2017-3). Considering their importance for global primate conservation, we examine the anthropogenic pressures each country is facing that place their primate populations at risk. Habitat loss and fragmentation are main threats to primates in Brazil, Madagascar, and Indonesia. However, in DRC hunting for the commercial bushmeat trade is the primary threat. Encroachment on primate habitats driven by local and global market demands for food and non-food commodities hunting, illegal trade, the proliferation of invasive species, and human and domestic-animal borne infectious diseases cause habitat loss, population declines, and extirpation. Modeling agricultural expansion in the 21st century for the four countries under a worst-case-scenario, showed a primate range contraction of 78% for Brazil, 72% for Indonesia, 62% for Madagascar, and 32% for DRC. These pressures unfold in the context of expanding human populations with low levels of development. Weak governance across these four countries may limit effective primate conservation planning. We examine landscape and local approaches to effective primate conservation policies and assess the distribution of protected areas and primates in each country. Primates in Brazil and Madagascar have 38% of their range inside protected areas, 17% in Indonesia and 14% in DRC, suggesting that the great majority of primate populations remain vulnerable. We list the key challenges faced by the four countries to avert primate extinctions now and in the future. In the short term, effective law enforcement to stop illegal hunting and illegal forest destruction is absolutely key. Long-term success can only be achieved by focusing local and global public awareness, and actively engaging with international organizations, multinational businesses and consumer nations to reduce unsustainable demands on the environment. Finally, the four primate range countries need to ensure that integrated, sustainable land-use planning for economic development includes the maintenance of biodiversity and intact, functional natural ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use changes have profound effects on populations of Neotropical primates, and ongoing climate change is expected to aggravate this scenario. The titi monkeys from eastern Brazil ( Callicebus personatus group) have been particularly affected by this process, with four of the five species now allocated to threatened conservation status categories. Here, we estimate the changes in the distribution of these titi monkeys caused by changes in both climate and land use. We also use demographic-based, functional landscape metrics to assess the magnitude of the change in landscape conditions for the distribution predicted for each species. We built species distribution models ( SDMs) based on maximum entropy for current and future conditions (2070), allowing for different global circulation models and contrasting scenarios of glasshouse gas concentrations. We refined the SDMs using a high-resolution map of habitat remnants. We then calculated habitat availability and connectivity based on home-range size and the dispersal limitations of the individual, in the context of a predicted loss of 10% of forest cover in the future. The landscape configuration is predicted to be degraded for all species, regardless of the climatic settings. This include reductions in the total cover of forest remnants, patch size and functional connectivity. As the landscape configuration should deteriorate severely in the future for all species, the prevention of further loss of populations will only be achieved through habitat restoration and reconnection to counteract the negative effects for these and several other co-occurring species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

* Premise of the study: Wild edible plants (WEPs) have an important cultural and economic role in human population worldwide. Human impacts are quickly converting natural habitats in agricultural, cattle ranch, and urbanized lands, putting native species on peril of risk of extinction, including some WEPs. Moreover, global climate changes also can pose another threat to species persistency. Here, we established conservation priorities for the Cerrado, a neotropical region in South America with high levels of plant endemism and vulnerability, aiming to assure long-term persistency of 16 most important WEPs. We evaluated these conservation priorities using a conservation biogeography framework using ecological patterns and process at a biogeographical scale to deal with species conservation features. * Methods: We built ecological niche models for 16 WEPs from Cerrado in the neotropics using climate models for preindustrial, past (Last Glacial Maximum) and future (year 2080) time periods to establish climatically stable areas through time, finding refugias for these WEPs. We used a spatial prioritization algorithm based on the spatial pattern of irreplaceability across the neotropics, aiming to ensure the persistence of at least 25% of range size in climatically stable areas for each WEP, using agricultural models as constraints. * Key results: The Southeast Cerrado was the most biotically stable and irreplaceable region for the WEPs compared with other areas across the neotropics. * Conclusions: Our findings strongly suggest that the Southeast Cerrado should be considered a conservation priority, with new protected areas to be sustainably managed and restored, to guarantee the supply of cultural and ecosystem services provided from the Cerrado's WEPs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geographic gradients in the species richness of non-human primates have traditionally been attributed to the variation in forest productivity (related to precipitation levels), although an all-inclusive, global-scale analysis has never been conducted., We perform a more comprehensive test on the role of precipitation and biomass production and propose an alternative hypothesis - the variation in vertical structure of forest habitats as measured by forest canopy height - in determining primate species richness on a global scale., Considering the potential causal relationships among precipitation, productivity and forest structure, we arranged these variables within a path framework to assess their direct and indirect associations with the pattern of primate species richness using structural equation modelling. The analysis also accounted for the influence of spatial autocorrelation in the relationships and assessed possible historical differences among biogeographical regions., The path coefficients indicate that forest canopy height (used as a proxy for vertical forest structure) is a better predictor of primate species richness than either precipitation or productivity on both global and continental scales. The only exception was Asia, where precipitation prevailed, albeit independently from productivity or forest structure. The influence of spatially structured processes varied markedly among biogeographical regions., Our results challenge the traditional rainfall-based viewpoint in favour of forest distribution and structure as primary drivers of primate species richness, which aggregate potential effects from both climatic factors and habitat complexity. These findings may support predictions of the impact of forest removal on primate species richness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

If the growing needs of humans are to be met, food production must increase; however, increasing food production will further compromise biodiversity. Can this seemingly irreconcilable conflict be mitigated? The solutions proposed so far include reducing food waste and closing yield gaps. Here, we investigate an alternative approach to reducing the impact of agricultural expansion on biodiversity without compromising food production by combining two strategies: taking agricultural production into consideration to solve the biodiversity crisis and promoting the definition of protected areas on the basis of a globalized blueprint. We found that combining these strategies could result in a 78% reduction in the agricultural opportunity costs incurred in the implementation of protected areas. Furthermore, a 30% increase in biodiversity protection could be achieved. We show that the movement toward global governance of natural resources would lead to reduced conflict between the needs of food production and biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Spatial variation in biological traits reflects evolutionary and biogeographical processes of the history of clades, and patterns of body size and range size can be suitable to recover such processes. In the present study, we test for latitudinal and altitudinal gradients in both body and range sizes in an entire family of tropical anurans, Centrolenidae. We partition the species latitudinal, and altitudinal distributions into an indirect measure of tolerance, and then test its effect on the body size gradient. We use an assemblage-based approach to correlate the traits with altitudinal and latitudinal axes, taking into account both phylogenetic and spatial autocorrelation in data. Centrolenids lack any gradient in range size but show a positive cline of both body size and adaptive body enlargement with altitude. This pattern is also positively correlated with an altitudinal gradient of cold tolerance, thus lending support to the heat balance hypothesis as an explanation of the body size cline. By using an entire Neotropical clade of anurans, we add further support for Bergmann's rule in ectotherms, warn for a likely effect of environmental steepness in fashioning the gradient, and offer evidence for an historical scenario (the Oligocene- Eocene Andean uplift) as its likely trigger. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species richness and range size are key features of biogeographic and macroecological analyses, which can yield a first assessment tool to define conservation priorities. Here we combined both features in a simultaneous analysis, based on range-diversity plots, to identify sets of rich-rare (high species richness with restricted ranges) and poor-rare cells (low species richness with restricted ranges). We applied this analysis to the anurans of South America and evaluated the representation of those sets of cells within the protected area system. South American anurans showed high species richness in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and East Tropical Andes, while regions harboring most of the rare species were concentrated in the Andes and Atlantic Coast from North-Eastern Brazil to River Plate. Based on such patterns, we identified as rich-rare cells the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and Tropical Andes and as poor-rare cells the southern part of Andes and Uruguay. A low fraction of both sets of cells was represented within the protected area system. We show that a simultaneous consideration of species richness and rarity provides a rapid assessment of large-scale biodiversity patterns and may contribute to the definition of conservation priorities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite wide evidence of a quickly changing world, systematic conservation planning analyses are usually static assuming that the biodiversity being preserved in sites do not change through time. Here we generated a comprehensive ensemble forecasting experiment for 444 amphibian species inhabiting the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot. Models were based on four methods for modeling ecological niches, and three future climate simulations. Combinations of these models were used to estimate species occurrences. We used species occurrences to optimize the current and future representation of amphibians with different conservation targets based on their geographic range size. We compared spatial priority outcomes (variance of site selection frequency scores) under dynamic conditions, using a bi-dimensional plot in which the relative importance of each site in achieving conservation targets was assessed both for current time and to 2050. Projections for 2050 show that species richness pattern will remain approximately constant, whereas high turnover rates are forecasted. Selection frequency of several locations varied widely, with recurrent sites located at the north and southeast of the biome. As for 2050, spatial priorities concentrate in the northern part of the biome. Thirty-three sites have high priority for conservation as they play an important role now and will still stand as priority locations in 2050. We present a conceptual model for dynamic spatial conservation prioritization that helps to identify priority sites under climate change. We also call attention to sites in which risk of investment is high, and to those that may become interesting options in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systematic Conservation Planning (SCP) involves a series of steps that should be accomplished to determine the most cost-effective way to invest in conservation action. Although SCP has been usually applied at the species level (or hierarchically higher), it is possible to use alleles from molecular analyses at the population level as basic units for analyses. Here we demonstrate how SCP procedures can be used to establish optimum strategies for in situ and ex situ conservation of a single species, using Dipteryx alata (a Fabaceae tree species widely distributed and endemics to Brazilian Cerrado) as a case study. Data for the analyses consisted in 52 alleles from eight microsatellite loci coded for a total of 644 individual trees sampled in 25 local populations throughout species' geographic range. We found optimal solutions in which seven local populations are the smallest set of local populations of D. alata that should be conserved to represent the known genetic diversity. Combining these several solutions allowed estimating the relative importance of the local populations for conserving all known alleles, taking into account the current land-use patterns in the region. A germplasm collection for this species already exists, so we also used SCP approach to identify the smallest number of populations that should be further collected in the field to complement the existing collection, showing that only four local populations should be sampled for optimizing the species ex situ representation. The initial application of the SCP methods to genetic data showed here can be a useful starting point for methodological and conceptual improvements and may be a first important step towards a comprehensive and balanced quantitative definition of conservation goals, shedding light to new possibilities for in situ and ex situ designs within species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat loss is the most important cause of species extinction worldwide that can act as a catalyst of biological invasions. To prevent species extinction, in-situ conservation strategies still figure as the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation. However, with expected broad-scale environmental changes likely to produce species range shifts and foster alien species invasions, will existing networks of protected areas be able to guarantee the long-term persistence of the species they should protect? Here we evaluate the potential impact of climate change in driving the invasive American bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus into reserves currently established in the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot. We produced potential geographic distribution maps both for current time and for 2050 using eight species distribution modeling methods and three different climate models to evaluate model uncertainty. We then overlaid a consensus prediction of species distribution to the existing network of protected areas. We show that, under climate change, L. catesbeianus is likely to colonize reserves more efficiently than today, putting in jeopardy native amphibian species thought to be protected in such places. We also suggest some policy recommendations to mitigate such potential impact on the Atlantic Forest native amphibian fauna. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim We tested whether the geographic variation in the proportion of beta diversity attributed to nestedness or turnover components was explained by the effect of past glaciation events. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that most of the beta diversity in regions retaining ice until recent periods was due to nestedness. Additionally, we tested whether the variation was influenced by thermal tolerance and the dispersal ability of species. Location This study analysed data from the New World. Methods We used presence/absence data for amphibians, birds and mammals of the New World. We calculated beta diversity among each 1°× 1° cell and the adjacent cells using the Sorensen dissimilarity index that expresses the total beta diversity. Furthermore, we partitioned it into turnover and nestedness components. The relative importance of the two latter components was expressed as the proportion of total beta diversity explained by nestedness (βratio). We calculated the correlation between βratio and the time each cell was free of ice since the last glaciation (cell age). To control the effects of spatial autocorrelation, we calculated geographically effective degrees of freedom. Results The proportion of beta diversity attributed to nestedness was negatively correlated with cell age. Moreover, this effect was stronger for amphibians than mammals, and stronger for mammals than birds. Main conclusions Our results are in accordance with the hypothesis that the nestedness component of beta diversity is more important in areas affected by glaciations until recent time. The beta diversity in high latitudes is the result of past extinctions and recent recolonization, which result in higher levels of nestedness. This process is more evident for vertebrates with lower dispersal ability and lower temperature tolerance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non-governmental organizations have proposed nine different global prioritization schemes, some of them focusing on areas with low vulnerability (a proactive reasoning) and some others targeting areas with high vulnerability (a reactive reasoning). The main threat to the remaining natural habitats of these areas is the expansion of agriculture. We evaluated the spatial congruence between agricultural land cover and global conservation priority areas in the present and in the future using a spatial model of land use cover change from 2000 to 2100. We showed that by the year 2000, the extent of agriculture was larger in reactive priority areas than in the rest of the world, while it was smaller in areas highlighted as important under proactive approaches. During the twenty-first century, we found a general increase in agriculture area and the difference between the approaches of conservation schemes is expected to hold true, although we found that high-biodiversity wilderness areas (HBWA), a proactive scheme, may be specially affected in certain scenarios of future change. These results suggest an increase in conservation conflicts over this century. In face of agricultural expansion, both kinds of prioritization approaches are important, but different strategies of protection are necessary (e.g., reactive approaches need the urgent protection of remnant habitats, while proactive ones have space to create megareserves). Further, conservation organizations must include agriculture expansion data and their uncertainty in conservation planning in order to be more successful in biological conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A letter to the editor is presented on why Brazil should help developing nations to improve agriculture and environmental protection.