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Background. There is lack of reliable predictors of disease severity and mortality in dengue. The present study was carried out to identify these predictors during the 2015 outbreak in India. Methods. This prospective observational study included confirmed adult dengue patients hospitalized between August and November 2015 in a tertiary care centre in New Delhi, India. Appropriate statistical tests were used to compare clinicolaboratory characteristics, derive predictors of severe disease and mortality, and compute a predictive score for mortality. Serotyping was done. Results. Data of 369 patients were analyzed (mean age, 30.9 years; 67% males). Of these, 198 (54%) patients had dengue fever, 125 (34%) had dengue hemorrhagic fever (grade 1 or 2), and 46 (12%) developed dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Twenty-two (6%) patients died. Late presentation to the hospital (≥5 days after onset) and dyspnea at rest were identified as independent predictors of severe disease. Age ≥24 years, dyspnea at rest and altered sensorium were identified as independent predictors of mortality. A clinical risk score was developed (12*age + 14*sensorium + 10*dyspnea), which, if ≥22, predicted mortality with a high sensitivity (81.8%) and specificity (79.2%). The predominant serotypes in Delhi (2015) were dengue virus DENV2 and DENV4. Conclusion. Age ≥24 years, dyspnea at rest, and altered sensorium were identified as independent predictors of mortality. Platelet counts did not determine outcome in dengue patients. Timely referral/access to healthcare is important. The clinical risk score for mortality prediction that was developed in this study can be used in all healthcare settings, after validation in larger cohorts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. There is lack of reliable predictors of disease severity and mortality in dengue. The present study was carried out to identify these predictors during the 2015 outbreak in India. Methods. This prospective observational study included confirmed adult dengue patients hospitalized between August and November 2015 in a tertiary care centre in New Delhi, India. Appropriate statistical tests were used to compare clinicolaboratory characteristics, derive predictors of severe disease and mortality, and compute a predictive score for mortality. Serotyping was done. Results. Data of 369 patients were analyzed (mean age, 30.9 years; 67% males). Of these, 198 (54%) patients had dengue fever, 125 (34%) had dengue hemorrhagic fever (grade 1 or 2), and 46 (12%) developed dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Twenty-two (6%) patients died. Late presentation to the hospital (≥5 days after onset) and dyspnea at rest were identified as independent predictors of severe disease. Age ≥24 years, dyspnea at rest and altered sensorium were identified as independent predictors of mortality. A clinical risk score was developed (12*age + 14*sensorium + 10*dyspnea), which, if ≥22, predicted mortality with a high sensitivity (81.8%) and specificity (79.2%). The predominant serotypes in Delhi (2015) were dengue virus DENV2 and DENV4. Conclusion. Age ≥24 years, dyspnea at rest, and altered sensorium were identified as independent predictors of mortality. Platelet counts did not determine outcome in dengue patients. Timely referral/access to healthcare is important. The clinical risk score for mortality prediction that was developed in this study can be used in all healthcare settings, after validation in larger cohorts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Altered plasma concentrations of vitamin D and mannose binding lectin (MBL), components of innate immunity, have been shown to be associated with the pathogenesis of viral infections. The objective of the present study was to find out whether plasma concentrations of MBL and vitamin D are different in patients with dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). The results: The plasma concentrations of vitamin D and MBL were assessed in 48 DF cases, 45 DHF cases and 20 apparently healthy controls using ELISA based methods. Vitamin D concentrations were found to be higher among both DF and DHF cases as compared to healthy controls (P<0.005 and P<0.001). Vitamin D concentrations were not different between DF and DHF cases. When the dengue cases were classified into primary and secondary infections, secondary DHF cases had significantly higher concentrations of vitamin D as compared to secondary DF cases (P<0.050). MBL concentrations were not significantly different between healthy controls and dengue cases. MBL concentrations were observed to be lower in DHF cases as compared to DF cases (P<0.050). Although MBL levels were not different DF and DHF cases based on immune status, the percentage of primary DHF cases (50%) having MBL levels lower than 500 ng/ml were less compared to primary DF cases (P = 0.038). Conclusions: The present study suggests that higher concentrations of vitamin D might be associated with secondary DHF while deficiency of MBL may be associated with primary DHF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dengue infections have become a huge threat to public health systems in developing countries. Data on seroprevalence and incidence of dengue infections are lacking from rural regions of India. The objective of present study was to investigate the seroprevalence and incidence of dengue infection utilizing repeated serosurveys from a rural region of Maharashtra, Western India.Methods: In the present study, 819 children between ages 5 to 15 years from 21 villages in Pune District of Maharashtra, India were sampled in 2014 and 2016. The sera were tested for the presence of dengue specific IgG using an indirect IgG ELISA kit.Results: Overall seroprevalence of dengue was 15.3% (95% confidence intervals (CI) 12.9-17.8%) in 2014 and 20.5% (95% CI 17.8-23.4%) in 2016. Among the 694 children who were seronegative at baseline (2014), 78 seroconverted. Overall incidence rate of primary dengue was 54.2 infections/1000 children years (95% CI 43.0-67.3). Incidence of primary dengue infection was higher in children from urbanized villages compared to rural villages (Incidence rate ratio (IRR) 2.6 (95% CI 1.3-5.2)). In rural villages, incidence of primary dengue infection was higher in children aged 10 years or above as compared to those aged below 10 years (IRR 9.75 (95% CI 1.21-77.9).Conclusions: The study provides the incidence rates of primary dengue infections from a rural region of India. More multi centric studies investigating the incidence of dengue will provide accurate estimate of incidence of dengue and help formulate well directed policies. The results also suggest that urbanization and transitions in demographic settings might favour dengue outbreaks in rural regions and these regions need to be targeted for vector control measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]