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Aim: Oceanic islands possess unique floras with high proportions of endemic species. Island floras are expected to be severely affected by changing climatic conditions as species on islands have limited distribution ranges and small population sizes and face the constraints of insularity to track their climatic niches. We aimed to assess how ongoing climate change affects the range sizes of oceanic island plants, identifying species of particular conservation concern. Location: Canary Islands, Spain. Methods: We combined species occurrence data from single‐island endemic, archipelago endemic and nonendemic native plant species of the Canary Islands with data on current and future climatic conditions. Bayesian Additive Regression Trees were used to assess the effect of climate change on species distributions; 71% (n = 502 species) of the native Canary Island species had models deemed good enough. To further assess how climate change affects plant functional strategies, we collected data on woodiness and succulence. Results: Single‐island endemic species were projected to lose a greater proportion of their climatically suitable area (x ̃ = −0.36) than archipelago endemics (x ̃ = −0.28) or nonendemic native species (x ̃ = −0.26), especially on Lanzarote and Fuerteventura, which are expected to experience less annual precipitation in the future. Moreover, herbaceous single‐island endemics were projected to gain less and lose more climatically suitable area than insular woody single‐island endemics. By contrast, we found that succulent single‐island endemics and nonendemic natives gain more and lose less climatically suitable area. Main Conclusions: While all native species are of conservation importance, we emphasise single‐island endemic species not characterised by functional strategies associated with water use efficiency. Our results are particularly critical for other oceanic island floras that are not constituted by such a vast diversity of insular woody species as the Canary Islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current models of island biogeography treat endemic and non‐endemic species as if they were functionally equivalent, focussing primarily on species richness. Thus, the functional composition of island biotas in relation to island biogeographical variables remains largely unknown. Using plant trait data (plant height, leaf area and flower length) for 895 native species in the Canary Islands, we related functional trait distinctiveness and climate rarity for endemic and non‐endemic species and island ages. Endemics showed a link to climatically rare conditions that is consistent with island geological change through time. However, functional trait distinctiveness did not differ between endemics and non‐endemics and remained constant with island age. Thus, there is no obvious link between trait distinctiveness and occupancy of rare climates, at least for the traits measured here, suggesting that treating endemic and non‐endemic species as functionally equivalent in island biogeography is not fundamentally wrong. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Functional traits can help us to elucidate biogeographical and ecological processes driving assemblage structure. We analysed the functional diversity of plant species of different evolutionary origins across an island archipelago, along environmental gradients and across geological age, to assess functional aspects of island biogeographical theory. Location: Canary Islands, Spain. Major taxa studied: Spermatophytes. Time period: Present day. Methods: We collected data for four traits (plant height, leaf length, flower length and fruit length) associated with resource acquisition, competitive ability, reproduction and dispersal ability of 893 endemic, non‐endemic native and alien plant species (c. 43% of the Canary Island flora) from the literature. Linking these traits to species occurrences and composition across a 500 m × 500 m grid, we calculated functional diversity for endemic, non‐endemic native and alien assemblages using multidimensional functional hypervolumes and related the resulting patterns to climatic (humidity) and island biogeographical (geographical isolation, topographic complexity and geological age) gradients. Results: Trait space of endemic and non‐endemic native species overlapped considerably, and alien species added novel trait combinations, expanding the overall functional space of the Canary Islands. We found that functional diversity of endemic plant assemblages was highest in geographically isolated and humid grid cells. Functional diversity of non‐endemic native assemblages was highest in less isolated and humid grid cells. In contrast, functional diversity of alien assemblages was highest in arid ecosystems. Topographic complexity and geological age had only a subordinate effect on functional diversity across floristic groups. Main conclusions: We found that endemic and non‐endemic native island species possess similar traits, whereas alien species tend to expand functional space in ecosystems where they have been introduced. The spatial distribution of the functional diversity of floristic groups is very distinct across environmental gradients, indicating that species assemblages of different evolutionary origins thrive functionally in dissimilar habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Trait-based approaches are increasingly important in ecology and biogeography, but progress is often hampered by the availability of high-quality quantitative trait data collected in the field. Alternative sources of trait information include scientific floras and taxonomic monographs. Here we test the reliability and usefulness of trait data acquired from scientific floras against trait values measured in the field, and those in TRY, the most comprehensive global plant trait database. Location: Tenerife and La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain. Methods: We measured leaf area and specific leaf area (SLA) in the field for 451 native vascular plant species and compared them with equivalent trait data digitised from the most recent and comprehensive guide of the Canarian flora, and data sourced from TRY. We regressed the field-measured traits against their equivalents estimated from the literature and used the regression models from one island to predict the trait values on the other island. Results: For leaf area, linear models showed good agreement between values from the scientific flora and those measured in the field (r 2 = 0.86). These models were spatially transferable across islands. In contrast, for SLA we found a weak relationship between field-measured values and the best estimates from the scientific flora (r 2 = 0.11). Insufficient data were available in the TRY database for our study area to calculate trait correlations with other data sources. Conclusions: Scientific floras can act as useful data sources for quantitative plant trait data for some traits but not others, whilst the TRY database contains many traits, but is incomplete in species coverage for our study region, and oceanic islands in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and invasive species are among the biggest threats to global biodiversity and ecosystem function. Although the individual impacts of climate change and invasive species are commonly assessed, we know far less about how a changing climate may impact invading species. Increases in water temperature due to climate change are likely to alter the thermal regime of UK rivers, and this in turn may influence the performance of invasive species such as signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus), which are known to have deleterious impacts on native ecosystems. We evaluate the relationship between water temperature and two key performance traits in signal crayfish—feeding and burrowing rate—using thermal experiments on wild‐caught individuals in a laboratory environment. Although water temperature was found to have no significant influence on burrowing rate, it did have a strong effect on feeding rate. Using the thermal performance curve for feeding rate, we evaluate how the thermal suitability of three UK rivers for signal crayfish may change as a result of future warming. We find that warming rivers may increase the amount of time that signal crayfish can achieve high feeding rate levels. These results suggest that elevated river water temperatures as a result of climate change may promote higher signal crayfish performance in the future, further exacerbating the ecological impact of this invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how and why rates of evolutionary diversification vary is a key issue in evolutionary biology, ecology, and biogeography. Evolutionary rates are the net result of interacting processes summarized under concepts such as adaptive radiation and evolutionary stasis. Here, we review the central concepts in the evolutionary diversification literature and synthesize these into a simple, general framework for studying rates of diversification and quantifying their underlying dynamics, which can be applied across clades and regions, and across spatial and temporal scales. Our framework describes the diversification rate (d) as a function of the abiotic environment (a), the biotic environment (b), and clade‐specific phenotypes or traits (c); thus, d ~ a,b,c. We refer to the four components (a–d) and their interactions collectively as the "Evolutionary Arena." We outline analytical approaches to this framework and present a case study on conifers, for which we parameterize the general model. We also discuss three conceptual examples: the Lupinus radiation in the Andes in the context of emerging ecological opportunity and fluctuating connectivity due to climatic oscillations; oceanic island radiations in the context of island formation and erosion; and biotically driven radiations of the Mediterranean orchid genus Ophrys. The results of the conifer case study are consistent with the long‐standing scenario that low competition and high rates of niche evolution promote diversification. The conceptual examples illustrate how using the synthetic Evolutionary Arena framework helps to identify and structure future directions for research on evolutionary radiations. In this way, the Evolutionary Arena framework promotes a more general understanding of variation in evolutionary rates by making quantitative results comparable between case studies, thereby allowing new syntheses of evolutionary and ecological processes to emerge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]