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Background: The discovery of cryptic species complexes within morphologically established species comes with challenges in the classification and handling of these species. We hardly know to what extent species within a species complex differ ecologically. Such knowledge is essential to assess the vulnerability of individual genetic lineages in the face of global change. The abiotic conditions, i.e., the Grinnellian niche that a genetic lineage colonizes, provides insights into how diverse the ecological requirements of each evolutionary lineage are within a species complex. Material and Methods: We sampled the cryptic species complex of the amphipod Gammarus roeselii from Central Germany to Greece and identified genetic lineages based on cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) barcoding. At the same time, we recorded various abiotic parameters and local pollution parameters using a series of in vitro assays to then characterize the Grinnellian niches of the morphospecies (i.e., Gammarus roeselii sensu lato) as well as each genetic lineage. Local pollution can be a significant factor explaining current and future distributions in times of increasing production and release of chemicals into surface waters. Results: We identified five spatially structured genetic lineages in our dataset that differed to varying degrees in their Grinnellian niche. In some cases, the niches were very similar despite the geographical separation of lineages, supporting the hypothesis of niche conservatism while being allopatrically separated. In other cases, we found a small niche that was clearly different from those of other genetic lineages. Conclusion: The variable niches and overlaps of different dimensions make the G. roeselii species complex a promising model system to further study ecological, phenotypic and functional differentiation within this species complex. In general, our results show that the Grinnellian niches of genetically distinct molecular operational taxonomic units (MOTUs) within a cryptic species complex can differ significantly between each other, calling for closer inspection of cryptic species in a conservational and biodiversity context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The raccoon is listed among the invasive alien species of EU concern requiring management actions. Projections of its global distribution have been mainly based on climatic variables so far. In this study, we aim to address the impact of land cover (LC) on the raccoon distribution in North America and Europe. First, we identified the LC types in which the observation sites are predominantly located to derive preferred LC types. Second, we used an ecological niche modelling (ENM) approach to evaluate the predictive power of climatic and LC information on the current distribution patterns of raccoons in both ranges. Raccoons seem to be more often associated to forested areas and mixed landscapes, including cropland and urban areas, but underrepresented in vegetation-poor areas, with patterns largely coinciding in both ranges. In order to compare the predictive power of climate variables and land cover variables, we conducted principal component analyses of all variables in the respective variable sets (climate variables and land cover variables) and used all PC variables that together explain 90% of the total variance in the respective set as predictors. Land cover only models resulted in patchy patterns in the projected habitat suitabilities and showed a higher performance compared to the climate only models in both ranges. In Europe, the land cover habitat suitability seems to exceed the current observed occurrences, which could indicate a further spread potential of the raccoon in Europe. We conclude that information on land cover types are important drivers, which explain well the spatial patterns of the raccoon. Consideration of land cover could benefit efforts to control invasive carnivores and contribute to better management of biodiversity, but also human and animal health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tick-borne diseases are a major health problem worldwide and could become even more important in Europe in the future. Due to changing climatic conditions, ticks are assumed to be able to expand their ranges in Europe towards higher latitudes and altitudes, which could result in an increased occurrence of tick-borne diseases. There is a great interest to identify potential (new) areas of distribution of vector species in order to assess the future infection risk with vector-borne diseases, improve surveillance, to develop more targeted monitoring program, and, if required, control measures. Based on an ecological niche modelling approach we project the climatic suitability for the three tick species Ixodes ricinus, Dermacentor reticulatus and Dermacentor marginatus under current and future climatic conditions in Europe. These common tick species also feed on humans and livestock and are vector competent for a number of pathogens. For niche modelling, we used a comprehensive occurrence data set based on several databases and publications and six bioclimatic variables in a maximum entropy approach. For projections, we used the most recent IPCC data on current and future climatic conditions including four different scenarios of socio-economic developments. Our models clearly support the assumption that the three tick species will benefit from climate change with projected range expansions towards north-eastern Europe and wide areas in central Europe with projected potential co-occurrence. A higher tick biodiversity and locally higher abundances might increase the risk of tick-borne diseases, although other factors such as pathogen prevalence and host abundances are also important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, a rapid range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus) towards Northern and Western Europe has been observed. The golden jackal is a medium‐sized canid, with a broad and flexible diet. Almost 200 different parasite species have been reported worldwide from C. aureus, including many parasites that are shared with dogs and cats and parasite species of public health concern. As parasites may follow the range shifts of their host, the range expansion of the golden jackal could be accompanied by changes in the parasite fauna in the new ecosystems. In the new distribution area, the golden jackal could affect ecosystem equilibrium, e.g., through changed competition situations or predation pressure. In a niche modeling approach, we project the future climatic habitat suitability of the golden jackal in Europe in the context of whether climatic changes promote range expansion. We use an ensemble forecast based on six presence‐absence algorithms to estimate the climatic suitability of C. aureus for different time periods up to the year 2100 considering different IPCC scenarios on future development. As predictor variables, we used six bioclimatic variables provided by worldclim. Our results clearly indicate that areas with climatic conditions analogous to those of the current core distribution area of the golden jackal in Europe will strongly expand towards the north and the west in future decades. Thus, the observed range expansion may be favored by climate change. The occurrence of stable populations can be expected in Central Europe. With regard to biodiversity and public health concerns, the population and range dynamics of the golden jackal should be surveyed. Correlative niche models provide a useful and frequently applied tool for this purpose. The results can help to make monitoring more efficient by identifying areas with suitable habitat and thus a higher probability of occurrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Studies of parasite communities and patterns in the Antarctic are an important knowledge base with the potential to track shifts in ecological relations and study the effects of climate change on host–parasite systems. Endemic Nototheniinae is the dominant fish group found in Antarctic marine habitats. Through their intermediate position within the food web, Nototheniinae link lower to higher trophic levels and thereby also form an important component of parasite life cycles. The study was set out to gain insight into the parasite fauna of Nototheniops larseni, N. nudifrons and Lepidonotothen squamifrons (Nototheniinae) from Elephant Island (Antarctica). Methods: Sampling was conducted at three locations around Elephant Island during the ANT-XXVIII/4 expedition of the research vessel Polarstern. The parasite fauna of three Nototheniine species was analysed, and findings were compared to previous parasitological and ecological research collated from a literature review. Results: All host species shared the parasites Neolebouria antarctica (Digenea), Corynosoma bullosum (Acanthocephala) and Pseudoterranova decipiens E (Nematoda). Other parasite taxa were exclusive to one host species in this study. Nototheniops nudifrons was infected by Ascarophis nototheniae (Nematoda), occasional infections of N. larseni with Echinorhynchus petrotschenkoi (Acanthocephala) and L. squamifrons with Elytrophalloides oatesi (Digenea) and larval tetraphyllidean Cestoda were detected. Conclusion: All examined fish species' parasites were predominantly euryxenous regarding their fish hosts. The infection of Lepidonotothen squamifrons with Lepidapedon garrardi (Digenea) and Nototheniops larseni with Echinorhynchus petrotschenkoi represent new host records. Despite the challenges and limited opportunities for fishing in remote areas, future studies should continue sampling on a more regular basis and include a larger number of fish species and sampling sites within different habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Formerly introduced for their presumed value in controlling mosquito‐borne diseases, the two mosquitofish Gambusia affinis and G. holbrooki (Poeciliidae) are now among the world's most widespread invasive alien species, negatively impacting aquatic ecosystems around the world. These inconspicuous freshwater fish are, once their presence is noticed, difficult to eradicate. It is, therefore, of utmost importance to assess their geographic potential and to identify their likely ability to persist under novel climatic conditions. Location: Global. Methods: We build species distribution models using occurrence data from the native and introduced distribution ranges to identify putative niche shifts and further ascertain the areas climatically suitable for the establishment and possible spread of mosquitofish. Results: We found significant niche expansions into climatic regions outside their natural climatic conditions, emphasizing the importance of integrating climatic niches of both native and invasive ranges into projections. In particular, there was a marked shift toward tropical regions in Asia and a clear niche shift of European G. holbrooki. This ecological flexibility partly explains the massive success of the two species, and substantially increases the risk for further range expansion. We also showed that the potential for additional expansion resulting from climate change is enormous—especially in Europe. Main conclusions: Despite the successful invasion history and ongoing range expansions, many countries still lack proper preventive measures. Thus, we urge policy makers to carefully evaluate the risk both mosquitofish pose to a particular area and to initiate appropriate management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In the face of ongoing climate warming, vector-borne diseases are expected to increase in Europe, including tick-borne diseases (TBD). The most abundant tick-borne diseases in Germany are Tick-Borne Encephalitis (TBE) and Lyme Borreliosis (LB), with Ixodes ricinus as the main vector. Methods: In this study, we display and compare the spatial and temporal patterns of reported cases of human TBE and LB in relation to some associated factors. The comparison may help with the interpretation of observed spatial and temporal patterns. Results: The spatial patterns of reported TBE cases show a clear and consistent pattern over the years, with many cases in the south and only few and isolated cases in the north of Germany. The identification of spatial patterns of LB disease cases is more difficult due to the different reporting practices in the individual federal states. Temporal patterns strongly fluctuate between years, and are relatively synchronized between both diseases, suggesting common driving factors. Based on our results we found no evidence that weather conditions affect the prevalence of both diseases. Both diseases show a gender bias with LB bing more commonly diagnosed in females, contrary to TBE being more commonly diagnosed in males. Conclusion: For a further investigation of of the underlying driving factors and their interrelations, longer time series as well as standardised reporting and surveillance system would be required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coconut is recognized for its popularity in contributing to food and nutritional security. It generates income and helps to improve rural livelihood. However, these benefits are constrained by lethal yellowing disease (LYD). A clear understanding of climate suitable areas for disease invasion is essential for implementing quarantine measures. Therefore, we used a machine learning algorithm based on maximum entropy to model and map habitat suitability of LYD and coconut under current and future climate change scenarios using three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) (1.26, 3.70 and 5.85) for three time periods (2041–2060, 2061–2080 and 2081–2100). Outside its current range, the model projected habitat suitability of LYD in Australia, Asia and South America. The distribution of coconut exceeded that of LYD. The area under the curve value of 0.98 was recorded for LYD, whereas 0.87 was obtained for the coconut model. The predictor variables that most influenced LYD projections were minimum temperature of the coldest month (88.4%) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (7.3%), whereas minimum temperature of the coldest month (85.9%) and temperature seasonality (8.7%) contributed most to the coconut model. Our study highlights potential climate suitable areas of LYD and coconut, and provides useful information for increasing quarantine measures and developing resistant or tolerant coconut varieties against the disease. Also, our study establishes an approach to model the climatic suitability for surveillance and monitoring of the disease, especially in areas that the disease has not been reported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the last century, the practice of fur farming in Europe led to the introduction of two mammal species from opposite ends of the world. With their subsequent unintentional escape from captivity or intentional releases, the process of slow expansion and establishment in Europe began. The raccoon Procyon lotor and the raccoon dog Nyctereutes procyonoides are included on the European Union's list of invasive alien species.We characterised the current climatic niches of the two species in their native ranges in North America and Asia, and compared them with their non‐native‐range niches in Europe, where we also projected climatic suitability. The aim was to locate suitable habitats beyond their current ranges and assess where a range expansion can be expected.Niche comparison and the projection of climatic suitability in Europe were based on eight bioclimatic variables and presence records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database. For niche modelling, we applied the maximum entropy approach (Maxent) and used the native‐range data for training.Minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio06) was identified as the most important bioclimatic variable in the habitat suitability models for both species. Different tolerance levels regarding this variable might explain small differences between the species' projected ranges, especially in the north and east of Europe. The high niche unfilling for both species in Europe suggests a potential for expansion beyond their present ranges.With only little understanding of their ecological impacts in their new ranges, including the potential risk of Nyctereutes procyonoides as SARS‐CoV‐2 reservoir hosts, further research and management is required at various spatial scales in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Culex pipiens complex encompasses five species and subspecies of the genus Culex. Over time, a multitude of morphologically indistinguishable species has been assigned to this complex with several species being classified as important vectors for different diseases. Some species of this complex hibernate in subterranean habitats, and it has been proven that viruses can survive this phase of hibernation. However, studies focusing on the environmental requirements, ecology and spatial and temporal distribution patterns of mosquitos in underground habitats are sparse. Here, we investigate the main environmental factors and dependencies of Culex, considering the number of individuals and survival probabilities in underground habitats during the winter months. Methods. Since the State of Hesse, Germany harbors about 3500 to 4000 subterranean shelters ample availability of subterranean habitats there provides a good opportunity to conduct detailed investigations of the Culex pipiens complex. In this study, we identified a sample of 727 specimens of overwintering females within the Culex pipiens complex from 52 different underground sites collected over a period of 23 years using qPCR. A complete data set of samplings of hibernating mosquitos from 698 subterranean habitats in Central Germany over the same period was available to study the spatial and temporal patterns and the effect of temperature and precipitation conditions on these hibernating populations using a generalized linear model (GLM). Results. Our qPCR-results show, similar to aboveground studies of mosquitos, that Culex pipiens pipiens and Culex torrentium occur sympatrically. On the other hand, Culex pipiens molestus occurred very rarely. The GLM revealed no shifts in species composition over time, but different preferences for subterranean hibernacula, chemical effects on overwintering populations as well as effects of annual and seasonal mean temperature and precipitation during the active phase from March to November. Cx. p. pipiens and Cx. torrentium are the most common species within Hessian caves and other underground habitats during winter. They co-occur with different frequency without any patterns in species composition. Weather conditions influence the number of overwintering mosquitos during the activity phase. Depending on cave parameters, the number of mosquitos decreases during the winter months. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND There is great interest in modelling the distribution of invasive species, particularly from the point of view of management. However, distribution modelling for invasive species using ecological niche models (ENMs) involves multiple challenges. Owing to the short time span since the introduction or arrival of a non‐indigenous species and the associated dispersal limitations, applying regular ENMs at an early stage of the invasion process may result in an underestimation of the potential niche in the new ranges. This topic is dealt with here using the example of Aedes japonicus japonicus, a vector competent mosquito species for a number of diseases. RESULTS: We found high niche unfilling for the species' non‐native range niches in Europe and North America compared with the native range niche, which can be explained by the early stage of the invasion process. Comparing four different ENMs based on: (i) the European and (ii) the North American non‐native range occurrence data, (iii) (derived) native range occurrence data, and (iv) all available occurrence data together, we found large differences in the projected climatic suitability, with the global data model projecting larger areas with climatic suitability. CONCLUSION: ENM in biological invasions can be challenging, especially when distribution data are only poorly available. We suggest one possible way to project climatic suitability for Aedes j. japonicus despite poor data availability for the non‐native ranges and missing occurrences from the native range. We discuss aspects of the lack of information and the associated implications for modelling. © 2020 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Zika is of great medical relevance due to its rapid geographical spread in 2015 and 2016 in South America and its serious implications, for example, certain birth defects. Recent epidemics urgently require a better understanding of geographic patterns of the Zika virus transmission risk. This study aims to map the Zika virus transmission risk in South and Central America. We applied the maximum entropy approach, which is common for species distribution modelling, but is now also widely in use for estimating the geographical distribution of infectious diseases. Methods: As predictor variables we used a set of variables considered to be potential drivers of both direct and indirect effects on the emergence of Zika. Specifically, we considered (a) the modelled habitat suitability for the two main vector species Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus as a proxy of vector species distributions; (b) temperature, as it has a great influence on virus transmission; (c) commonly called evidence consensus maps (ECM) of human Zika virus infections on a regional scale as a proxy for virus distribution; (d) ECM of human dengue virus infections and, (e) as possibly relevant socio-economic factors, population density and the gross domestic product. Results: The highest values for the Zika transmission risk were modelled for the eastern coast of Brazil as well as in Central America, moderate values for the Amazon basin and low values for southern parts of South America. The following countries were modelled to be particularly affected: Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Puerto Rico and Venezuela. While modelled vector habitat suitability as predictor variable showed the highest contribution to the transmission risk model, temperature of the warmest quarter contributed only comparatively little. Areas with optimal temperature conditions for virus transmission overlapped only little with areas of suitable habitat conditions for the two main vector species. Instead, areas with the highest transmission risk were characterised as areas with temperatures below the optimum of the virus, but high habitat suitability modelled for the two main vector species. Conclusion: Modelling approaches can help estimating the spatial and temporal dynamics of a disease. We focused on the key drivers relevant in the Zika transmission cycle (vector, pathogen, and hosts) and integrated each single component into the model. Despite the uncertainties generally associated with modelling, the approach applied in this study can be used as a tool and assist decision making and managing the spread of Zika. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aedes koreicus, a mosquito species originating from Japan, China, Korea, and parts of Russia, has been sporadically found in Europe since 2008. It is suspected to be a vector of a variety of viruses and nematodes. In Germany, one individual was found in 2015 in the city of Augsburg, situated in the federal state of Bavaria. Based on morphological and molecular species identification, this study reports a new finding of Ae. koreicus, about 370 km northwest from Augsburg. The sampling point is located in the city of Wiesbaden, in the federal state of Hesse, where four individuals were found over a period of 2 months in 2017. The re-finding of the species in the same location in May and July 2018 suggests that (a) the species was able to reproduce and overwinter at this site, and (b) spreading of non-native mosquito species is an ongoing process in Germany, which requires close monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. Worldwide, the number of recorded human hantavirus infections as well as the number of affected countries is on the rise. In Europe, most human hantavirus infections are caused by the Puumala virus (PUUV), with bank voles (Myodes glareolus) as reservoir hosts. Generally, infection outbreaks have been related to environmental conditions, particularly climatic conditions, food supply for the reservoir species and land use. However, although attempts have been made, the insufficient availability of environmental data is often hampering accurate temporal and spatially explicit models of human hantavirus infections. Methods. In the present study, dynamics of human PUUV infections between 2001 and 2015 were explored using ArcGIS in order to identify spatio-temporal patterns. Results. Percentage cover of forest area was identified as an important factor for the spatial pattern, whereas beech mast was found explaining temporal patterns of human PUUV infections in Germany. High numbers of infections were recorded in 2007, 2010 and 2012 and areas with highest records were located in Baden-Wuerttemberg (southwest Germany) and North Rhine-Westphalia (western Germany). Conclusion. More reliable data on reservoir host distribution, pathogen verification as well as an increased awareness of physicians are some of the factors that should improve future human infection risk assessments in Germany. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Aedes albopictus and Ae. japonicus are two of the most widespread invasive mosquito species that have recently become established in western Europe. Both species are associated with the transmission of a number of serious diseases and are projected to continue their spread in Europe. Methods: In the present study, we modelled the habitat suitability for both species under current and future climatic conditions by means of an Ensemble forecasting approach. We additionally compared the modelled MAXENT niches of Ae. albopictus and Ae. japonicus regarding temperature and precipitation requirements. Results: Both species were modelled to find suitable habitat conditions in distinct areas within Europe: Ae. albopictus within the Mediterranean regions in southern Europe, Ae. japonicus within the more temperate regions of central Europe. Only in few regions, suitable habitat conditions were projected to overlap for both species. Whereas Ae. albopictus is projected to be generally promoted by climate change in Europe, the area modelled to be climatically suitable for Ae. japonicus is projected to decrease under climate change. This projection of range reduction under climate change relies on the assumption that Ae. japonicus is not able to adapt to warmer climatic conditions. The modelled MAXENT temperature niches of Ae. japonicus were found to be narrower with an optimum at lower temperatures compared to the niches of Ae. albopictus. Conclusions: Species distribution models identifying areas with high habitat suitability can help improving monitoring programmes for invasive species currently in place. However, as mosquito species are known to be able to adapt to new environmental conditions within the invasion range quickly, niche evolution of invasive mosquito species should be closely followed upon in future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus, native to South East Asia, is listed as one of the worst invasive vector species worldwide. In Europe the species is currently restricted to Southern Europe, but due to the ongoing climate change, Ae. albopictus is expected to expand its potential range further northwards. In addition to modelling the habitat suitability for Ae. albopictus under current and future climatic conditions in Europe by means of the maximum entropy approach, we here focused on the drivers of the habitat suitability prediction. We explored the most limiting factors for Aedes albopictus in Europe under current and future climatic conditions, a method which has been neglected in species distribution modelling so far. Ae. albopictus is one of the best-studied mosquito species, which allowed us to evaluate the applied Maxent approach for most limiting factor mapping. We identified three key limiting factors for Ae. albopictus in Europe under current climatic conditions: winter temperature in Eastern Europe, summer temperature in Southern Europe. Model findings were in good accordance with commonly known establishment thresholds in Europe based on climate chamber experiments and derived from the geographical distribution of the species. Under future climatic conditions low winter temperature were modelled to remain the most limiting factor in Eastern Europe, whereas in Central Europe annual mean temperature and summer temperatures were modelled to be replaced by summer precipitation, respectively, as most limiting factors. Changes in the climatic conditions in terms of the identified key limiting factors will be of great relevance regarding the invasive potential of the Ae. albopictus. Thus, our results may help to understand the key drivers of the suggested range expansion under climate change and may help to improve monitoring programmes. The applied approach of investigating limiting factors has proven to yield valuable results and may also provide valuable insights into the drivers of the prediction of current and future distribution of other species. This might be particularly interesting for other vector species that are of increasing public health concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic changes raise the risk of re-emergence of arthropod-borne virus outbreaks globally. These viruses are transmitted by arthropod vectors, often mosquitoes. Due to increasing worldwide trade and tourism, these vector species are often accidentally introduced into many countries beyond their former distribution range. Aedes albopictus, a well-known disease vector, was detected for the first time in Germany in 2007, but seems to have failed establishment until today. However, the species is known to occur in other temperate regions and a risk for establishment in Germany remains, especially in the face of predicted climate change. Thus, the goal of the study was to estimate the potential distribution of Ae. albopictus in Germany. We used ecological niche modeling in order to estimate the potential habitat suitability for this species under current and projected future climatic conditions. According to our model, there are already two areas in western and southern Germany that appear suitable for Ae. albopictus under current climatic conditions. One of these areas lies in Baden-Wuerttemberg, the other in North-Rhine Westphalia in the Ruhr region. Furthermore, projections under future climatic conditions show an increase of the modeled habitat suitability throughout Germany. Ae. albopictus is supposed to be better acclimated to colder temperatures than other tropical vectors and thus, might become, triggered by climate change, a serious threat to public health in Germany. Our modeling results can help optimizing the design of monitoring programs currently in place in Germany. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Questions How does the seasonal variability of wind affect the seed release phenology of plant species from different vegetation types? Do wind-dispersed species show a seasonal synchronization of seed release timing with meteorological conditions that promote long-distance dispersal ( LDD) by wind? Location Germany, Central Europe. Methods We combined empirical observations of seed release phenology with simulations of LDD by wind. We simulated LDD by wind for species differing in seed terminal velocity for open and forested habitats using a broad set of measured meteorological conditions. In order to investigate the extent of seasonal synchronization of seed release with LDD, we compared species' LDD throughout the year with phenological data on timing of seed release for herbaceous species from open and tree species from forested habitats. Results For tree species with winged seeds and medium seed terminal velocity (e.g. Acer platanoides, Tilia cordata) we found a pronounced seasonal synchronization of seed release timing with high LDD by wind. These species showed an extended ripening duration together with both the highest rate of seed release and high LDD in winter. Species with low seed terminal velocity (i.e. high wind dispersal potential) from open habitats (mainly species from the Asteraceae with plumed seeds) and forested habitats (e.g. tree species of the genera Populus, Salix) both showed high LDD but lacked seasonal synchronization of seed release timing with LDD. Conclusions For forest species with medium seed terminal velocity, the seasonal timing of seed release during winter and strong winds could be evidence for phenological adaptations to timing of wind dispersal within periods with favourable conditions. Our finding that species with low seed terminal velocity and high LDD throughout the year did not show seasonal seed release synchronization tentatively suggests that selection for other mechanisms such as synchronization with short-term weather events might promote LDD of these species. Our results provide insights into how seasonal seed release timing of plant species from different vegetation types affects LDD by wind and shows that seed release phenology should be considered while assessing species' wind dispersal potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, international travel and global freight transportation are increasing and have a direct influence on the introduction and establishment of non-native mosquito species as well as on the spread of arthropod (mosquito)-borne diseases inside Europe. One of the mosquito species that has become invasive in many areas is the Asian rock pool or bush mosquito Ochlerotatus japonicus japonicus (synonyms: Aedes japonicus japonicus or Hulecoeteomyia japonica japonica). This species was detected in Germany in 2008 for the first time. Until today, three different Oc. j. japonicus populations have been documented. Laboratory studies have shown that Oc. j. japonicus can act as a vector for a variety of disease agents. Thus, the knowledge on its current distribution is essential for different measurements. In the present study, ecological niche models were used to estimate the potential distribution of Oc. j. japonicus in Germany. The aim was to detect areas within Germany that could potentially function as habitats for this species. According to our model, areas in western, southern, and central Germany offer suitable conditions for the mosquito and may therefore be at risk for an invasion of the species. We strongly suggest that those areas should be monitored more intensively in the future. For this purpose, it would also be essential to search for possible dispersal routes as well as for natural barriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-distance dispersal (LDD) of plant seeds by wind is affected by functional traits of the species, specifically seed terminal velocity and height of seed release above the vegetation cover (HAC), as well as by the meteorological parameters wind speed and vertical turbulence. The relative importance of these parameters is still under debate and the importance of their variability in vegetation types, sites and years has only rarely been quantified. To address these topics, we performed simulation studies for different vegetation types, sites, years and plant species with PAPPUS, a process based trajectory model. We found that LDD (measured in terms of migration rates) was higher in forests compared to open landscapes. Forests also showed greater between-year variability in LDD. Terminal velocity had an effect on LDD in both vegetation types, while the effect of HAC was significant only in the open landscape. We found considerable differences in how vertical turbulence and wind speed affect LDD between species and vegetation types: In the open landscape the strength of the positive relationship between vertical turbulence and LDD generally decreases with terminal velocity, whereas it increases in forests. The strength of the predominantly positive effect of wind speed on LDD increases with terminal velocity in both vegetation types, while in forests we found even negative relationships for species with low terminal velocity. Our results generally suggest that the effects of vertical turbulence and wind speed on LDD by wind diverge for species with different functional traits as well as in different vegetation types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future climate change is predicted to advance faster than the postglacial warming. Migration may therefore become a key driver for future development of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. For 140 European plant species we computed past range shifts since the last glacial maximum and future range shifts for a variety of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and global circulation models (GCMs). Range shift rates were estimated by means of species distribution modelling (SDM). With process-based seed dispersal models we estimated species-specific migration rates for 27 dispersal modes addressing dispersal by wind (anemochory) for different wind conditions, as well as dispersal by mammals (dispersal on animal's coat – epizoochory and dispersal by animals after feeding and digestion – endozoochory) considering different animal species. Our process-based modelled migration rates generally exceeded the postglacial range shift rates indicating that the process-based models we used are capable of predicting migration rates that are in accordance with realized past migration. For most of the considered species, the modelled migration rates were considerably lower than the expected future climate change induced range shift rates. This implies that most plant species will not entirely be able to follow future climate-change-induced range shifts due to dispersal limitation. Animals with large day- and home-ranges are highly important for achieving high migration rates for many plant species, whereas anemochory is relevant for only few species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ambrosia artemisiifolia L., native to North America, is a problematic invasive species, because of its highly allergenic pollen. The species is expected to expand its range due to climate change. By means of ecological niche modelling (ENM), we predict habitat suitability for A. artemisiifolia in Europe under current and future climatic conditions. Overall, we compared the performance and results of 16 algorithms commonly applied in ENM. As occurrence records of invasive species may be dominated by sampling bias, we also used data from the native range. To assess the quality of the modelling approaches we assembled a new map of current occurrences of A. artemisiifolia in Europe. Our results show that ENM yields a good estimation of the potential range of A. artemisiifolia in Europe only when using the North American data. A strong sampling bias in the European Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) data for A. artemisiifolia causes unrealistic results. Using the North American data reflects the realized European distribution very well. All models predict an enlargement and a northwards shift of potential range in Central and Northern Europe during the next decades. Climate warming will lead to an increase and northwards shift of A. artemisiifolia in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: More than 170 species of tabanids are known in Europe, with many occurring only in limited areas or having become very rare in the last decades. They continue to spread various diseases in animals and are responsible for livestock losses in developing countries. The current monitoring and recording of horseflies is mainly conducted throughout central Europe, with varying degrees of frequency depending on the country. To the detriment of tabanid research, little cooperation exists between western European and Eurasian countries. Methods: For these reasons, we have compiled available sources in order to generate as complete a dataset as possible of six horsefly species common in Europe. We chose Haematopota pluvialis, Chrysops relictus, C. caecutiens, Tabanus bromius, T. bovinus and T. sudeticus as ubiquitous and abundant species within Europe. The aim of this study is to estimate the distribution, land cover usage and niches of these species. We used a surface-range envelope (SRE) model in accordance with our hypothesis of an underestimated distribution based on Eurocentric monitoring regimes. Results: Our results show that all six species have a wide range in Eurasia, have a broad climatic niche and can therefore be considered as widespread generalists. Areas with modelled habitat suitability cover the observed distribution and go far beyond these. This supports our assumption that the current state of tabanid monitoring and the recorded distribution significantly underestimates the actual distribution. Our results show that the species can withstand extreme weather and climatic conditions and can be found in areas with only a few frost-free months per year. Additionally, our results reveal that species prefer certain land-cover environments and avoid other land-cover types. Conclusions: The SRE model is an effective tool to calculate the distribution of species that are well monitored in some areas but poorly in others. Our results support the hypothesis that the available distribution data underestimate the actual distribution of the surveyed species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The genus Ebolavirus comprises some of the deadliest viruses for primates and humans and associated disease outbreaks are increasing in Africa. Different evidence suggests that bats are putative reservoir hosts and play a major role in the transmission cycle of these filoviruses. Thus, detailed knowledge about their distribution might improve risk estimations of where future disease outbreaks might occur. A MaxEnt niche modelling approach based on climatic variables and land cover was used to investigate the potential distribution of 9 bat species associated to the Zaire ebolavirus. This viral species has led to major Ebola outbreaks in Africa and is known for causing high mortalities. Modelling results suggest suitable areas mainly in the areas near the coasts of West Africa with extensions into Central Africa, where almost all of the 9 species studied find suitable habitat conditions. Previous spillover events and outbreak sites of the virus are covered by the modelled distribution of 3 bat species that have been tested positive for the virus not only using serology tests but also PCR methods. Modelling the habitat suitability of the bats is an important step that can benefit public information campaigns and may ultimately help control future outbreaks of the disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental niche modelling is an acclaimed method for estimating species' present or future distributions. However, in marine environments the assembly of representative data from reliable and unbiased occurrences is challenging. Here, we aimed to model the environmental niche and distribution of marine, parasitic nematodes from the Pseudoterranova decipiens complex using the software Maxent. The distribution of these potentially zoonotic species is of interest, because they infect the muscle tissue of host species targeted by fisheries. To achieve the best possible model, we used two different approaches. The land distance (LD) model was based on abiotic data, whereas the definitive host distance (DHD) model included species-specific biotic data. To assess whether DHD is a suitable descriptor for Pseudoterranova spp., the niches of the parasites and their respective definitive hosts were analysed using ecospat. The performance of LD and DHD was compared based on the variables' contribution to the model. The DHD-model clearly outperformed the LD-model. While the LD-model gave an estimate of the parasites' niches, it only showed the potential distribution. The DHD-model produced an estimate of the species' realised distribution and indicated that biotic variables can help to improve the modelling of data-poor, marine species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]