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Aims: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is more common in certain ethnic groups. This systematic review compares mortality risk between people with T2D from different ethnic groups and includes recent larger studies. Methods: We searched nine databases using PRISMA guidelines (PROSPERO CRD42022372542). We included community-based prospective studies among adults with T2D from at least two different ethnicities. Two independent reviewers undertook screening, data extraction and quality assessment using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. The primary outcome compared all-cause mortality rates between ethnic groups (hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals). Results: From 30,825 searched records, we included 13 studies (7 meta-analysed), incorporating 573,173 T2D participants; 12 were good quality. Mortality risk was lower amongst people with T2D from South Asian [HR 0.68 (0.65–0.72)], Black [HR 0.82 (0.77–0.87)] and Chinese [HR 0.57 (0.46–0.70)] ethnicity compared to people of White ethnicity. Narrative synthesis corroborated these findings but demonstrated that people of indigenous Māori ethnicity had greater mortality risk compared to European ethnicity. Conclusions: People with T2D of South Asian, Black and Chinese ethnicity have lower all-cause mortality risk than White ethnicity, with Māori ethnicity having higher mortality risk. Factors explaining mortality differences require further study, including understanding complication risk by ethnicity, to improve diabetes outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study investigated cause-specific mortality rates in 12 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. Methods: We collected weekly cause-specific mortality data from respiratory disease, pneumonia, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer from national vital statistic databases. We calculated excess mortality for respiratory disease (excluding COVID-19 codes), pneumonia, and CVD in 2020 and 2021 by comparing observed weekly against expected mortality based on historical data (2015–2019), accounting for seasonal trends. We used multilevel regression models to investigate the association between country-level pandemic-related variables and cause-specific mortality. Results: Significant reductions in cumulative mortality from respiratory disease and pneumonia were observed in 2020 and/or 2021, except for Georgia, Northern Ireland, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, which exhibited excess mortality for one or both causes. Australia, Austria, Cyprus, Georgia, and Northern Ireland experienced excess cumulative CVD mortality in 2020 and/or 2021. Australia, Austria, Brazil, Cyprus, Georgia, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Slovenia, experienced increased crude cumulative cancer mortality during 2020 and/or 2021 compared to previous years. Among pandemic-related variables, reported COVID-19 incidence was negatively associated with increased cancer mortality, excess respiratory, (2020) and pneumonia (2021) mortality, and positively associated with respiratory and CVD mortality (2021). Stringency of control measures were negatively associated with excess respiratory disease, CVD, and increased cancer mortality (2021). Conclusions: This study provides evidence of substantial excess mortality from CVD, and notable reductions in respiratory disease and pneumonia in both years across most countries investigated. Our study also highlights the beneficial impact of stringent control measures in mitigating excess mortality from most causes in 2021. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: People with diabetes are more likely to develop tuberculosis (TB) and to have poor TB‐treatment outcomes than those without. We previously showed that blood transcriptomes in people with TB‐diabetes (TB‐DM) co‐morbidity have excessive inflammatory and reduced interferon responses at diagnosis. It is unknown whether this persists through treatment and contributes to the adverse outcomes. Methods: Pulmonary TB patients recruited in South Africa, Indonesia and Romania were classified as having TB‐DM, TB with prediabetes, TB‐related hyperglycaemia or TB‐only, based on glycated haemoglobin concentration at TB diagnosis and after 6 months of TB treatment. Gene expression in blood at diagnosis and intervals throughout treatment was measured by unbiased RNA‐Seq and targeted Multiplex Ligation‐dependent Probe Amplification. Transcriptomic data were analysed by longitudinal mixed‐model regression to identify whether genes were differentially expressed between clinical groups through time. Predictive models of TB‐treatment response across groups were developed and cross‐tested. Results: Gene expression differed between TB and TB‐DM patients at diagnosis and was modulated by TB treatment in all clinical groups but to different extents, such that differences remained in TB‐DM relative to TB‐only throughout. Expression of some genes increased through TB treatment, whereas others decreased: some were persistently more highly expressed in TB‐DM and others in TB‐only patients. Genes involved in innate immune responses, anti‐microbial immunity and inflammation were significantly upregulated in people with TB‐DM throughout treatment. The overall pattern of change was similar across clinical groups irrespective of diabetes status, permitting models predictive of TB treatment to be developed. Conclusions: Exacerbated transcriptome changes in TB‐DM take longer to resolve during TB treatment, meaning they remain different from those in uncomplicated TB after treatment completion. This may indicate a prolonged inflammatory response in TB‐DM, requiring prolonged treatment or host‐directed therapy for complete cure. Development of transcriptome‐based biomarker signatures of TB‐treatment response should include people with diabetes for use across populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Diabetes mellitus and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are independent risk factors for poor outcomes among people with tuberculosis (TB). To date, information on the joint impact of diabetes and HIV on TB outcomes is limited. We aimed to estimate (1) the association between hyperglycemia and mortality and (2) the effect of joint exposure to diabetes and HIV on mortality. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study among people with TB in the state of Georgia between 2015 and 2020. Eligible participants were 16 or older, did not have a previous TB diagnosis, and were microbiologically confirmed or clinical cases. Participants were followed during TB treatment. Robust Poisson regression was used to estimate risk ratios for all-cause mortality. Interaction between diabetes and HIV was assessed on the additive scale using the attributable proportion and on the multiplicative scale with product terms in regression models. Results Of 1109 participants, 318 (28.7%) had diabetes, 92 (8.3%) were HIV positive, and 15 (1.4%) had diabetes and HIV. Overall, 9.8% died during TB treatment. Diabetes was associated with an increased risk of death among people with TB (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] = 2.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.62–4.13). We estimated that 26% (95% CI, −43.4% to 95.0%) of deaths among participants with diabetes mellitus and HIV were due to biologic interaction. Conclusions Diabetes alone and co-occurring diabetes and HIV were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality during TB treatment. These data suggest a potential synergistic effect between diabetes and HIV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background To understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, this study investigates overall, sex- and age-specific excess all-cause mortality in 20 countries, during 2020. Methods Total, sex- and age-specific weekly all-cause mortality for 2015–2020 was collected from national vital statistics databases. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly 2020 observed mortality against expected mortality, estimated from historical data (2015–2019) accounting for seasonality, long- and short-term trends. Crude and age-standardized rates were analysed for total and sex-specific mortality. Results Austria, Brazil, Cyprus, England and Wales, France, Georgia, Israel, Italy, Northern Ireland, Peru, Scotland, Slovenia, Sweden, and the USA displayed substantial excess age-standardized mortality of varying duration during 2020, while Australia, Denmark, Estonia, Mauritius, Norway, and Ukraine did not. In sex-specific analyses, excess mortality was higher in males than females, except for Slovenia (higher in females) and Cyprus (similar in both sexes). Lastly, for most countries substantial excess mortality was only detectable (Austria, Cyprus, Israel, and Slovenia) or was higher (Brazil, England and Wales, France, Georgia, Italy, Northern Ireland, Sweden, Peru and the USA) in the oldest age group investigated. Peru demonstrated substantial excess mortality even in the <45 age group. Conclusions This study highlights that excess all-cause mortality during 2020 is context dependent, with specific countries, sex- and age-groups being most affected. As the pandemic continues, tracking excess mortality is important to accurately estimate the true toll of COVID-19, while at the same time investigating the effects of changing contexts, different variants, testing, quarantine, and vaccination strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OBJECTIVE: People living with type 2 diabetes (T2D) are at higher infection risk, but it is unknown how this risk varies by ethnicity or whether the risk is similarly observed in people with nondiabetic hyperglycemia ("prediabetes"). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We included 527,151 patients in England with T2D and 273,216 with prediabetes, aged 18–90, and alive on 1 January 2015 on the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Each was matched to two patients without diabetes or prediabetes on age, sex, and ethnic group. Infections during 2015–2019 were collated from primary care and linked hospitalization records. Infection incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for those with prediabetes or T2D were estimated, unadjusted and adjusted for confounders. RESULTS: People with T2D had increased risk for infections presenting in primary care (IRR 1.51, 95% CI 1.51–1.52) and hospitalizations (IRR 1.91, 1.90–1.93). This was broadly consistent overall within each ethnic group, although younger White T2D patients (age <50) experienced a greater relative risk. Adjustment for socioeconomic deprivation, smoking, and comorbidity attenuated associations, but IRRs remained similar by ethnicity. For prediabetes, a significant but smaller risk was observed (primary care IRR 1.35, 95% CI 1.34–1.36; hospitalization IRR 1.33, 1.31–1.35). These were similar within each ethnicity for primary care infections, but less consistent for infection-related hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: The elevated infection risk for people with T2D appears similar for different ethnic groups and is also seen in people with prediabetes. Infections are a substantial cause of ill-health and health service use for people with prediabetes and T2D. This has public health implications with rising prediabetes and diabetes prevalence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Diabetes mellitus (DM) increases the risk of tuberculosis (TB) and will hamper global TB control due to the dramatic rise in type 2 DM in TB-endemic settings. In this trial, we will examine the efficacy and safety of TB preventive therapy against the development of TB disease in people with DM who have latent TB infection (LTBI), with a 12-week course of rifapentine and isoniazid (3HP).Methods: The 'Prevention of tuberculosis in diabetes mellitus' (PROTID) consortium will randomise 3000 HIV-negative eligible adults with DM and LTBI, as evidenced by a positive tuberculin skin test or interferon gamma release assay, to 12 weeks of 3HP or placebo. Participants will be recruited through screening adult patients attending DM clinics at referral hospitals in Tanzania and Uganda. Patients with previous TB disease or treatment with a rifamycin medication or isoniazid (INH) in the previous 2 years will be excluded. The primary outcome is the occurrence of definite or probable TB disease; secondary outcome measures include adverse events, all-cause mortality and treatment completion. The primary efficacy analysis will be intention-to-treat; per-protocol analyses will also be carried out. We will estimate the ratio of TB incidence rates in intervention and control groups, adjusting for the study site using Poisson regression. Results will be reported as efficacy estimates (1-rate ratio). Cumulative incidence rates allowing for death as a competing risk will also be reported. Approximately 1000 LTBI-negative, HIV-negative participants will be enrolled consecutively into a parallel cohort study to compare the incidence of TB in people with DM who are LTBI negative vs positive. A number of sub-studies will be conducted among others to examine the prevalence of LTBI and active TB, estimate the population impact and cost-effectiveness of LTBI treatment in people living with DM in these African countries and address gaps in the prevention and therapeutic management of combined TB-DM.Discussion: PROTID is anticipated to generate key evidence to guide decisions over the use of TB preventive treatment among people with DM as an important target group for better global TB control.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04600167 . Registered on 23 October 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: People with diabetes mellitus (DM) have a higher tuberculosis (TB) risk, but the evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) was scarce until recently and not included in earlier global summaries. Therefore, this systematic review aims to determine the risk of active TB disease among people with DM in SSA and whether HIV alters this association. Methods: Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, Global Health and African Index Medicus were searched between January 1980 and February 2021. Cohort, case‐control and cross‐sectional studies from SSA, which assessed the association between DM and active TB, were included if adjusted for age. Two researchers independently assessed titles, abstracts, full texts, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. Estimates for the association between DM and TB were summarised using a random effects meta‐analysis. PROSPERO: CRD42021241743. Results: Nine eligible studies were identified, which reported on 110,905 people from 5 countries. Individual study odds ratios (OR) of the TB–DM association ranged from 0.88 (95% CI 0.17–4.58) to 10.7 (95% CI 4.5–26). The pooled OR was 2.77 (95% CI 1.90–4.05). High heterogeneity was reduced in sensitivity analysis (from I2 = 57% to I2 = 6.9%), by excluding one study which ascertained DM by HbA1c. Risk of bias varied widely between studies, especially concerning the way in which DM status was determined. Conclusions: There is a strong positive association between DM and active TB in SSA. More research is needed to determine whether HIV, a key risk factor for TB in SSA, modifies this relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Physical activity (PA) levels are low in Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC; Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). We carried out a systematic review (PROSPERO registration number 131817) to assess the effect of interventions to increase PA levels in this region. We also assessed their effects on anthropometry and cardiovascular risk. A systematic search of six databases (Medline, EMBASE, SPORTDiscus, CINAHL, Cochrane, Web of Science) was performed to identify randomized and non-randomized intervention studies performed in adults and children published between January 1985 and November 2020. We included studies published in English or Arabic, and included PA interventions regardless of setting, delivery, and duration. The primary outcomes were changes in PA duration and intensity. Secondary outcomes included anthropometric measures (e.g., weight, body mass index) and cardiovascular risk profiles (e.g., lipid measures, blood glucose). Two independent reviewers screened studies in accordance with pre-determined criteria, extracted data, assessed risk of bias (Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 and Newcastle Ottawa Scale) and undertook a narrative synthesis. From 13,026 records identified, 14 studies were included. Nine studies focussed exclusively on changing PA behaviour, resulting in statistically significant increases in step count ranging from an additional 757 steps/day (95% confidence interval [CI] 0–1,513) to 3,853 steps/day (95% CI 3,703–4,002). Five identified studies were multi-component lifestyle interventions, targeting people at higher risk (due to obesity or type 2 diabetes). Evidence for increases in PA from multi-component studies was limited, although improvements were seen in outcomes e.g. body weight and blood lipid levels. In conclusion, relatively few studies have focussed on changing PA behaviour, despite the urgent need in the GCC. Limited evidence suggested that pedometer-based programmes encouraging step counting and walking were effective in promoting PA, at least in the short term. Policies to roll out such interventions should be implemented and evaluated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/Introduction: To investigate and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic, its related risk factors and cost in Oman by 2050. Materials and Methods: An age‐structured mathematical model was used to characterize type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemiology and trends in Oman between 1990 and 2050. The model was parametrized using current and quality data, including six nationally representative population‐based epidemiological surveys for type 2 diabetes mellitus and its key risk factors. Results: The projected type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence increased from 15.2% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2050. The prevalence increased from 16.8 and 13.8% in 2020 among women and men to 26.3 and 21.4% in 2050, respectively. In 2020, 190,489 Omanis were living with type 2 diabetes mellitus compared with 570,227 in 2050. The incidence rate per 1,000 person‐years changed from 8.3 in 2020 to 12.1 in 2050. Type 2 diabetes mellitus' share of Oman's national health expenditure grew by 36% between 2020 and 2050 (from 21.2 to 28.8%). Obesity explained 56.7% of type 2 diabetes mellitus cases in 2020 and 71.4% in 2050, physical inactivity explained 4.3% in 2020 and 2.7% in 2050, whereas smoking accounted for <1% of type 2 diabetes mellitus cases throughout 2020–2050. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses affirmed these predictions. Conclusions: The type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic in Oman is expected to increase significantly over the next three decades, consuming nearly one‐third of the national health expenditure. The type 2 diabetes mellitus burden is heavily influenced by obesity. Interventions targeting this single risk factor should be a national priority to reduce and control the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Oman. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Diabetes mellitus (DM) patients are three times more likely to develop tuberculosis (TB) than the general population. Active TB screening in people with DM is part of a bidirectional approach. The aim of this study was to conduct pragmatic active TB screening among DM patients in four countries to inform policy. Methods DM patients were recruited in Indonesia (n=809), Peru (n=600), Romania (n=603) and South Africa (n=51). TB cases were diagnosed using an algorithm including clinical symptoms and chest X-ray. Presumptive TB patients were examined with sputum smear and culture. Results A total of 171 (8.3%) individuals reported ever having had TB (South Africa, 26%; Indonesia, 12%; Peru, 7%; Romania, 4%), 15 of whom were already on TB treatment. Overall, 14 (0.73% [95% confidence interval 0.40 to 1.23]) TB cases were identified from screening. Poor glucose control, smoking, lower body mass index, education and socio-economic status were associated with newly diagnosed/current TB. Thirteen of the 14 TB cases diagnosed from this screening would have been found using a symptom-based approach. Conclusions These data support the World Health Organization recommendation for routine symptom-based screening for TB in known DM patients in high TB-burden countries. DM patients with any symptoms consistent with TB should be investigated and diagnostic tools should be easily accessible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We developed a diabetes risk score using a novel analytical approach and tested its diagnostic performance to detect individuals at high risk of diabetes, by applying it to the Qatari population. A representative random sample of 5,000 Qataris selected at different time points was simulated using a diabetes mathematical model. Logistic regression was used to derive the score using age, sex, obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity as predictive variables. Performance diagnostics, validity, and potential yields of a diabetes testing program were evaluated. In 2020, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.79 and sensitivity and specificity were 79.0% and 66.8%, respectively. Positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) were 36.1% and 93.0%, with 42.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. In 2030, projected AUC was 0.78 and sensitivity and specificity were 77.5% and 65.8%. PPV and NPV were 36.8% and 92.0%, with 43.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. In 2050, AUC was 0.76 and sensitivity and specificity were 74.4% and 64.5%. PPV and NPV were 40.4% and 88.7%, with 45.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. This model-based score demonstrated comparable performance to a data-derived score. The derived self-complete risk score provides an effective tool for initial diabetes screening, and for targeted lifestyle counselling and prevention programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background People with diabetes have an increased risk of developing active tuberculosis (TB) and are more likely to have poor TB-treatment outcomes, which may impact on control of TB as the prevalence of diabetes is increasing worldwide. Blood transcriptomes are altered in patients with active TB relative to healthy individuals. The effects of diabetes and intermediate hyperglycemia (IH) on this transcriptomic signature were investigated to enhance understanding of immunological susceptibility in diabetes-TB comorbidity. Methods Whole blood samples were collected from active TB patients with diabetes (glycated hemoglobin [HbA1c] ≥6.5%) or IH (HbA1c = 5.7% to <6.5%), TB-only patients, and healthy controls in 4 countries: South Africa, Romania, Indonesia, and Peru. Differential blood gene expression was determined by RNA-seq (n = 249). Results Diabetes increased the magnitude of gene expression change in the host transcriptome in TB, notably showing an increase in genes associated with innate inflammatory and decrease in adaptive immune responses. Strikingly, patients with IH and TB exhibited blood transcriptomes much more similar to patients with diabetes-TB than to patients with only TB. Both diabetes-TB and IH-TB patients had a decreased type I interferon response relative to TB-only patients. Conclusions Comorbidity in individuals with both TB and diabetes is associated with altered transcriptomes, with an expected enhanced inflammation in the presence of both conditions, but also reduced type I interferon responses in comorbid patients, suggesting an unexpected uncoupling of the TB transcriptome phenotype. These immunological dysfunctions are also present in individuals with IH, showing that altered immunity to TB may also be present in this group. The TB disease outcomes in individuals with IH diagnosed with TB should be investigated further. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction Prevalence of overweight, obesity and diabetes are high and rising across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates). In parallel, physical activity (PA) levels are low relative to international standards. PA aids weight control and reduces risk of non-communicable diseases including diabetes and cardiovascular disease. It is likely interventions developed elsewhere will not translate to GCC countries due to unique environmental, social and cultural factors. This protocol is for a systematic review assessing the efficacy of interventions promoting PA within GCC countries among generally healthy adults and children. The primary outcome of interest is change in objectively measured or self-reported PA levels, the secondary outcomes of interest are changes in anthropometry or chronic disease risk factors (eg, blood pressure). Interventions will be compared with no intervention or those of differing PA intensity or duration. The relationships between PA change and the following will be assessed: intervention intensity or duration, season in which intervention occurs, sex, age, nationality and sustainability over time. Methods and analysis A systematic search strategy will identify indexed publications on the efficacy of interventions promoting PA. Randomised controlled trials and quasi-experimental studies recruiting predominantly healthy children and adults will be included. Studies of exercise rehabilitation will be excluded. Medline, Embase, Cinahl, Cochrane Library, SportDiscus, Web of Science, Index Medicus for the Eastern Mediterranean Region and Qscience will be searched. Clinical trial registries including the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, the Iranian Registry of Clinical Trials and Clinical Trials.gov will be searched for ongoing and unpublished studies. Searches will be ran from database inception until 1 May 2020 and be supplemented by checking references of key articles. Two reviewers will independently screen identified citations then full texts using prespecified inclusion and exclusion criteria. Piloted data extraction forms will be used in duplicate. Inconsistencies in screening or data extraction will be resolved by a third investigator or study author contact. Risk of bias will be independently assessed by two reviewers using validated tools. A narrative summary of findings will be produced supplemented with meta-analyses and exploration of heterogeneity as appropriate. Ethics and Dissemination The review aims to strengthen the findings of the primary studies it incorporates and explore the impact of setting. It will synthesise existing published aggregate patient data. If publications or data with ethical concerns are identified, they will be excluded from the review. Results of the systematic review will be published in full and authors will engage directly with research audiences and key stakeholders to share findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction The prevalence of diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are rapidly increasing in most parts of the world. In order to ameliorate the related public health burden, evidence-informed policies to improve diet need to be implemented. Financial subsidies that promote healthful consumption patterns have the potential to reduce NCD risk and may also reduce inequality if targeted at those of low socio-economic position. This protocol is for an updated systematic review of such evidence. Methods and analysis A systematic search strategy will be used to identify publications on fiscal intervention studies indexed in Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, EconLit and PubMed in between January 2013 to February 2019. Two reviewers will independently sift identified citations using prespecified inclusion and exclusion criteria to inform full-text review. The outcomes of interest are: consumption patterns (% change in targeted items and in overall dietary patterns), purchasing patterns (% change) or body mass index. Pretested data capture forms will be used for double data extraction. Any inconsistencies in citation sifting or data extraction will be resolved by a third investigator and study authors will be contacted if needed. Systematic searches will be supplemented by reference checking of key articles. Study quality will be assessed and a narrative summary of findings will be produced. Meta-analyses and exploration of heterogeneity will be completed if appropriate. Ethics and dissemination The review aims to strengthen findings of the primary studies it incorporates. It will synthesise existing published aggregated patient data and only present further aggregate data. Given this, no concerns are held relating to confidentiality and informed consent due to re-use of patient data. If publications or data with ethical concerns are identified, they will be excluded from the review. Results of the systematic review will be published in full and authors will engage directly with research audiences and key stakeholders to share findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing interest in the re-emerging interaction between type 2 diabetes (DM) and TB, but the underlying biologic mechanisms are poorly understood despite their possible implications in clinical management. Experts in epidemiologic, public health, basic science, and clinical studies recently convened and identified research priorities for elucidating the underlying mechanisms for the co-occurrence of TB and DM. We identified gaps in current knowledge of altered immunity in patients with DM during TB, where most studies suggest an underperforming innate immunity, but exaggerated adaptive immunity to Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Various molecular mechanisms and pathways may underlie these observations in the DM host. These include signaling induced by excess advanced glycation end products and their receptor, higher levels of reactive oxidative species and oxidative stress, epigenetic changes due to chronic hyperglycemia, altered nuclear receptors, and/or differences in cell metabolism (immunometabolism). Studies in humans at different stages of DM (no DM, pre-DM, and DM) or TB (latent or active TB) should be complemented with findings in animal models, which provide the unique opportunity to study early events in the host-pathogen interaction. Such studies could also help identify biomarkers that will complement clinical studies in order to tailor the prevention of TB-DM, or to avoid the adverse TB treatment outcomes that are more likely in these patients. Such studies will also inform new approaches to host-directed therapies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Data regarding the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) among people living with diabetes (PLWD) in TB-endemic settings are scarce. We examined TB incidence among PLWD in Indonesia who had previously been screened for latent TB infection (LTBI) and TB disease. Methods PLWD (≥18 y of age) in an urban setting were examined a mean 3.4 y after they had been screened for active TB and LTBI. Data on subsequent TB diagnosis were collected by interview and with chest X-ray, sputum smear and Mycobacterium tuberculosis culture. TB incidence rates were stratified for baseline LTBI status, as determined by the QuantiFERON interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA). Results Of 590 PLWD, 101 had died and 163 could not be contacted or refused. Among the 326 who were re-examined, 6 (1.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.7 to 4.0) reported being diagnosed already and a further 5 were diagnosed with active TB (1.5%; 95% CI 0.50 to 3.5). The TB incidence rate was 9.85 (95% CI 4.03 to 15.68) per 1000 person-years. TB incidence was higher among PLWD with baseline LTBI (17.13; 95% CI 5.25 to 29.00/1000 person-years) compared with those without LTBI (4.79; 95% CI −0.63 to 10.21), with an incidence rate ratio of 3.57 (95% CI 0.86 to 20.92; p=0.054). Conclusions PLWD with LTBI in Indonesia and similar settings are likely to benefit from TB preventive therapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. Methods: A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. Results: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10–50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8–33.7%, incidence by 8.4–38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1–13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10–50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5–2.8%, incidence by 0.5–3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1–0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10–50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5–6.9%, incidence by 0.5–7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2–2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3–9.2%, incidence by 4.2–11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9–5.2%. Conclusions: Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In context of the rapidly expanding diabetes mellitus (DM) epidemic in India and slowly declining tuberculosis (TB) incidence, we aimed to estimate the past, current, and future impact of DM on TB epidemiology.Methods: An age-structured TB-DM dynamical mathematical model was developed and analyzed to assess the DM-on-TB impact. The model was calibrated using a literature review and meta-analyses. The DM-on-TB impact was analyzed using population attributable fraction metrics. Sensitivity analyses were conducted by accommodating less conservative effect sizes for the TB-DM interactions, by factoring the age-dependence of the TB-DM association, and by assuming different TB disease incidence rate trajectories.Results: In 1990, 11.4% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 6.3%-14.4%) of new TB disease incident cases were attributed to DM. This proportion increased to 21.9% (95% UI = 12.1%-26.4%) in 2017, and 33.3% (95% UI = 19.0%-44.1%) in 2050. Similarly, in 1990, 14.5% (95% UI = 9.5%-18.2%) of TB-related deaths were attributed to DM. This proportion increased to 28.9% (95% UI = 18.9%-34.1%) in 2017, and 42.8% (95% UI = 28.7%-53.1%) in 2050. The largest impacts originated from the effects of DM on TB disease progression and infectiousness. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the impact could be even greater.Conclusions: The burgeoning DM epidemic is predicted to become a leading driver of TB disease incidence and mortality over the coming decades. By 2050, at least one-third of TB incidence and almost half of TB mortality in India will be attributed to DM. This is likely generalizable to other Asian Pacific countries with similar TB-DM burdens. Targeting the impact of the increasing DM burden on TB control is critical to achieving the goal of TB elimination by 2050. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Diabetes guidelines focus on target glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels. Long-term variability in HbA1c may be predictive of hospitalization or mortality, but its importance at different average levels or trajectories is unclear.Research Design and Methods: Using English primary care data, 58,832 patients with type 2 diabetes had HbA1c average (mean of annual means), variability (coefficient of variation), and trajectory (annual regression slope) estimated during 2006-2009. Hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality and emergency hospitalization during 2010-2015, with adjustment for age, sex, smoking, BMI, duration of diabetes, and deprivation, were estimated using Cox regression. The simultaneous impact of HbA1c average, variability, and trajectory was estimated using percentiles.Results: In mutually adjusted models, HbA1c variability showed a consistent dose-response relationship with all-cause mortality, while average level was only important among individuals in the highest or lowest 10% of the distribution, and trajectory had no independent effect. Individuals with the most unstable HbA1c (top 10%) were almost twice as likely to die (HR 1.93 [95% CI 1.72-2.16]) than were those with the most stable (bottom 10%)-an association attenuated but not explained by hypoglycemia. For emergency hospitalizations, similar trends were seen except for coronary artery disease (CAD) and ischemic stroke (IS), where increasing average rather than variability was predictive.Conclusions: HbA1c variability was strongly associated with overall mortality and emergency hospitalization and not explained by average HbA1c or hypoglycemic episodes. Only for CAD and IS hospitalizations was no association found, with average HbA1c strongly predictive. Targets should focus on both stability and absolute level of HbA1c. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

INTRODUCTION Tobacco smoking is a significant public health threat in the world, a risk factor for many diseases, and has been increasing in prevalence in many developing countries. In this study, we aimed to estimate the burden of premature deaths attributable to smoking among Tunisian men aged 35--69 years in 2009. METHODS The number of deaths attributable to smoking was estimated using the population attributable risk fraction method. Smoking prevalence was obtained from a nationally representative survey. Causes of death were obtained from the registry of the National Public Health Institute. Relative risks were taken from the American Cancer Society Prevention Study (CPS-II). RESULTS Total estimated premature deaths attributable to smoking among men in Tunisia were 2601 (95% CI: 2268--2877), accounting for 25% (95% CI: 23.3--26.6) of total male adult mortality. Cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were the major causes of premature deaths attributable to smoking with 1272 (95% CI: 1188--1329), 966 (95% CI: 779--1133) and 364 (300--415) deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Tobacco smoking is highly relevant and is related to substantial premature mortality in Tunisia, around double that estimated for the region as a whole. This also has not decreased over the past 20 years. Urgent actions are needed to reduce this pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives In Barbados, high case fatality rates have been reported after myocardial infarction (MI) with higher rates in women than men. To explore this inequality, we examined documented pharmacological interventions for ST-segment elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI), non-STEMI (NSTEMI) and unstable and chronic angina in women and men. Design Prospective cohort registry data for STEMI and NSTEMI and retrospective chart review for unstable and chronic angina. Setting Tertiary care (acute coronary syndromes) and primary care (chronic angina) centres in Barbados. Participants For the years 2009-2016, a total of 1018 patients with STEMI or NSTEMI were identified via the prospective study. For unstable and chronic angina, 136 and 272 notes were reviewed respectively for the years 2010-2014. Outcome measures The proportions of patients prescribed recommended medication during the first 24 hours after an acute event, at discharge and for chronic care were calculated. Prescribed proportions were analysed by gender after adjustment for age. Results Between 2009 and 2016, for the acute management of patients with NSTEMI and STEMI, only two (aspirin and clopidogrel) of six drugs had documented prescription rates of 80% or more. Patients with STEMI (n=552) had higher prescription rates than NSTEMI (n=466), with gender differences being more pronounced in the former. Among patients with STEMI, after adjustment for age, diabetes, hypertension and smoking, men were more likely to receive fibrinolytics acutely, OR 2.28 (95% CI 1.24 to 4.21). Compared with men, a higher proportion of women were discharged on all recommended treatments; this was only statistically significant for beta-blockers: age-adjusted OR 1.87 (95% CI 1.16 to 3.00). There were no statistically significant differences in documented prescription of drugs for chronic angina. Conclusion Following acute MI in Barbados, the proportion of patients with documented recommended treatment is relatively low. Although women were less likely to receive appropriate acute care than men, by discharge gender differences were reversed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This paper examines one EC-funded multinational project (RESCAP-MED), with a focus on research capacity building (RCB) concerning non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in the Mediterranean Middle East and North Africa. By the project's end (2015), the entire region was engulfed in crisis. Objective: Designed before this crisis developed in 2011, the primary purpose of RESCAP-MED was to foster methodological skills needed to conduct multi-disciplinary research on NCDs and their social determinants. RESCAP-MED also sought to consolidate regional networks for future collaboration, and to boost existing regional policy engagement in the region on the NCD challenge. This analysis examines the scope and sustainability of RCB conducted in a context of intensifying political turmoil. Methods: RESCAP-MED linked two sets of activities. The first was a framework for training early- and mid-career researchers through discipline-based and writing workshops, plus short fellowships for sustained mentoring. The second integrated public-facing activities designed to raise the profile of the NCD burden in the region, and its implications for policymakers at national level. Key to this were two conferences to showcase regional research on NCDs, and the development of an e-learning resource (NETPH). Results: Seven discipline-based workshops (with 113 participants) and 6 workshops to develop writing skills (84 participants) were held, with 18 fellowship visits. The 2 symposia in Istanbul and Beirut attracted 280 participants. Yet the developing political crisis tagged each activity with a series of logistical challenges, none of which was initially envisaged. The immediacy of the crisis inevitably deflected from policy attention to the challenges of NCDs. Conclusions: This programme to strengthen research capacity for one priority area of global public health took place as a narrow window of political opportunity was closing. The key lessons concern issues of sustainability and the paramount importance of responsively shaping a context-driven RCB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Diabetes mellitus (DM) increases the risk of infections, but the effect of better control has not been thoroughly investigated.Research Design and Methods: With the use of English primary care data, average glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) during 2008-2009 was estimated for 85,312 patients with DM ages 40-89 years. Infection rates during 2010-2015 compiled from primary care, linked hospital, and mortality records were estimated across 18 infection categories and further summarized as any requiring a prescription or hospitalization or as cause of death. Poisson regression was used to estimate adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) by HbA1c categories across all DM, and type 1 and type 2 DM separately. IRRs also were compared with 153,341 age-sex-practice-matched controls without DM. Attributable fractions (AF%) among patients with DM were estimated for an optimal control scenario (HbA1c 6-7% [42-53 mmol/mol]).Results: Long-term infection risk rose with increasing HbA1c for most outcomes. Compared with patients without DM, those with DM and optimal control (HbA1c 6-7% [42-53 mmol/mol], IRR 1.41 [95% CI 1.36-1.47]) and poor control (≥11% [97 mmol/mol], 4.70 [4.24-5.21]) had elevated hospitalization risks for infection. In patients with type 1 DM and poor control, this risk was even greater (IRR 8.47 [5.86-12.24]). Comparisons within patients with DM confirmed the risk of hospitalization with poor control (2.70 [2.43-3.00]) after adjustment for duration and other confounders. AF% of poor control were high for serious infections, particularly bone and joint (46%), endocarditis (26%), tuberculosis (24%), sepsis (21%), infection-related hospitalization (17%), and mortality (16%).Conclusions: Poor glycemic control is powerfully associated with serious infections and should be a high priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: We describe in detail the burden of infections in adults with diabetes within a large national population cohort. We also compare infection rates between patients with type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T1DM and T2DM).Research Design and Methods: A retrospective cohort study compared 102,493 English primary care patients aged 40-89 years with a diabetes diagnosis by 2008 (n = 5,863 T1DM and n = 96,630 T2DM) with 203,518 age-sex-practice-matched control subjects without diabetes. Infection rates during 2008-2015, compiled from primary care and linked hospital and mortality records, were compared across 19 individual infection categories. These were further summarized as any requiring a prescription or hospitalization or as cause of death. Poisson regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) between 1) people with diabetes and control subjects and 2) T1DM and T2DM adjusted for age, sex, smoking, BMI, and deprivation.Results: Compared with control subjects without diabetes, patients with diabetes had higher rates for all infections, with the highest IRRs seen for bone and joint infections, sepsis, and cellulitis. IRRs for infection-related hospitalizations were 3.71 (95% CI 3.27-4.21) for T1DM and 1.88 (95% CI 1.83-1.92) for T2DM. A direct comparison of types confirmed higher adjusted risks for T1DM versus T2DM (death from infection IRR 2.19 [95% CI 1.75-2.74]). We estimate that 6% of infection-related hospitalizations and 12% of infection-related deaths were attributable to diabetes.Conclusions: People with diabetes, particularly T1DM, are at increased risk of serious infection, representing an important population burden. Strategies that reduce the risk of developing severe infections and poor treatment outcomes are under-researched and should be explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The burgeoning epidemic of diabetes mellitus (DM) is one of the major global health challenges. We systematically reviewed the published literature to provide a summary estimate of the association between DM and active tuberculosis (TB). We searched Medline and EMBASE databases for studies reporting adjusted estimates on the TB–DM association published before December 22, 2015, with no restrictions on region and language. In the meta-analysis, adjusted estimates were pooled using a DerSimonian-Laird random-effects model, according to study design. Risk of bias assessment and sensitivity analyses were conducted. 44 eligible studies were included, which consisted of 58,468,404 subjects from 16 countries. Compared with non-DM patients, DM patients had 3.59–fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.25–5.73), 1.55–fold (95% CI 1.39–1.72), and 2.09–fold (95% CI 1.71–2.55) increased risk of active TB in four prospective, 16 retrospective, and 17 case-control studies, respectively. Country income level (3.16–fold in low/middle–vs. 1.73–fold in high–income countries), background TB incidence (2.05–fold in countries with >50 vs. 1.89–fold in countries with ≤50 TB cases per 100,000 person-year), and geographical region (2.44–fold in Asia vs. 1.71–fold in Europe and 1.73–fold in USA/Canada) affected appreciably the estimated association, but potential risk of bias, type of population (general versus clinical), and potential for duplicate data, did not. Microbiological ascertainment for TB (3.03–fold) and/or blood testing for DM (3.10–fold), as well as uncontrolled DM (3.30–fold), resulted in stronger estimated association. DM is associated with a two- to four-fold increased risk of active TB. The association was stronger when ascertainment was based on biological testing rather than medical records or self-report. The burgeoning DM epidemic could impact upon the achievements of the WHO “End TB Strategy” for reducing TB incidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction Coronary heart disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of UK mortality. Dietary trans fats (TFA) represent a powerful CHD risk factor. However, UK efforts to reduce intake have been less successful than other nations. We modelled the potential health and economic effects of eliminating industrial and all TFA up to 2020. Methods We extended the previously validated IMPACTsec model, to estimate the potential effects on health and economic outcomes of mandatory reformulation or a complete ban on dietary TFA in England and Wales from 2011 to 2020. We modelled two policy scenarios: 1) Elimination of industrial TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0.4% daily energy 2) Elimination of all TFA consumption, from 0.8% to 0% Results Elimination of industrial TFA across the England and Wales population could result in approximately 1600 fewer deaths per year, with some 4000 fewer hospital admissions; gaining approximately 14 000 additional life years. Health inequalities would be substantially reduced in both scenarios. Elimination of industrial TFA would be cost saving. This would include approximately £100m saved in direct healthcare costs. Elimination of all TFA would double the health and economic gains. Conclusions Eliminating industrial or all UK dietary intake of TFA could substantially reduce CHD mortality and inequalities, while resulting in substantial annual savings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is growing interest in the interaction between type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and TB, but many research questions remain unanswered. Epidemiologists, basic scientists, and clinical experts recently convened and identified priorities. This is the first of two reviews on this topic, summarizing priority areas of research regarding epidemiology, clinical management, and public health. First, from an epidemiologic point of view, more study is needed to determine the importance of transient hyperglycemia in patients with TB and on the importance of DM for the global epidemic of multidrug resistant (MDR)-TB. Second, regarding the screening and clinical management of combined TB and DM (TB-DM), clinical trials and large cohort studies should examine the benefits of improved DM care as well as prolonged or intensified TB treatment on the outcome of TB-DM and investigate the cost-effectiveness of screening methods for DM among patients newly diagnosed with TB. Third, from a public health and health systems point of view, the population health impact and cost-effectiveness of different interventions to prevent or treat DM and TB in high-burden populations should be examined, and health-system interventions should be developed for routine TB-DM screening, management of DM after completion of TB treatment, and better access to DM services worldwide. Studies are needed across different ethnicities and settings given the heterogeneity of metabolic perturbations, inflammatory responses, medications, and access to health care. Finally, studies should address interactions between TB, DM, and HIV because of the convergence of epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa and some other parts of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: In Sweden, previous favourable trends in blood cholesterol levels have recently levelled off or even increased in some age groups since 2003, potentially reflecting changing fashions and attitudes towards dietary saturated fatty acids (SFA). We aimed to examine the potential effect of different SFA intake on future coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in 2025. Methods: We compared the effect on future CHD mortality of two different scenarios for fat intake a) daily SFA intake decreasing to 10 energy percent (E%), and b) daily SFA intake rising to 20 E%. We assumed that there would be moderate improvements in smoking (5%), salt intake (1g/day) and physical inactivity (5% decrease) to continue recent, positive trends. Results: In the baseline scenario which assumed that recent mortality declines continue, approximately 5,975 CHD deaths might occur in year 2025. Anticipated improvements in smoking, dietary salt intake and physical activity, would result in some 380 (-6.4%) fewer deaths (235 in men and 145 in women). In combination with a mean SFA daily intake of 10 E%, a total of 810 (-14%) fewer deaths would occur in 2025 (535 in men and 275 in women). If the overall consumption of SFA rose to 20 E%, the expected mortality decline would be wiped out and approximately 20 (0.3%) additional deaths might occur. Conclusion: CHD mortality may increase as a result of unfavourable trends in diets rich in saturated fats resulting in increases in blood cholesterol levels. These could cancel out the favourable trends in salt intake, smoking and physical activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking, physical activity levels, dietary salt, saturated fat intake, mean body mass index (BMI) levels, diabetes prevalence and fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption on future coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in Turkey for year 2025. Design: A CHD mortality model previously developed and validated in Turkey was extended to predict potential trends in CHD mortality from 2008 to 2025. Setting: Using risk factor trends data from recent surveys as a baseline, we modelled alternative evidence-based future risk factor scenarios (modest/ ideal scenarios). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to account for uncertainties. Subject: Projected populations in 2025 (aged 25-84) of 54 million in Turkey. Results: Assuming lower mortality, modest policy changes in risk factors would result in ~25 635 (range: 20 290-31 125) fewer CHD deaths in the year 2025; 35.6% attributed to reductions in salt consumption, 20.9% to falls in diabetes, 14.6% to declines in saturated fat intake and 13.6% to increase in F&V intake. In the ideal scenario, 45 950 (range: 36 780- 55 450) CHD deaths could be prevented in 2025. Again, 33.2% of this would be attributed to reductions in salt reduction, 19.8% to increases in F&V intake, 16.7% to reductions in saturated fat intake and 14.0% to the fall in diabetes prevalence. Conclusions: Only modest risk factor changes in salt, saturated/unsaturated fats and F&V intake could prevent around 16 000 CHD deaths in the year 2025 in Turkey, even assuming mortality continues to decline. Implementation of population-based, multisectoral interventions to reduce salt and saturated fat consumption and increase F&V consumption should be scaled up in Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Stroke and Ischemic Heart Diseases (IHD) are the main cause of premature deaths globally, including Turkey. There is substantial potential to reduce stroke and IHD mortality burden; particularly by improving diet and health behaviours at the population level. Our aim is to estimate and compare the potential impact of ischemic stroke treatment vs population level policies on ischemic stroke and IHD deaths in Turkey if achieved like other developed countries up to 2022 and 2032.Methods: We developed a Markov model for the Turkish population aged >35 years. The model follows the population over a time horizon of 10 and 20 years. We modelled seven policy scenarios: a baseline scenario, three ischemic stroke treatment improvement scenarios and three population level policy intervention scenarios (based on target reductions in dietary salt, transfat and unsaturated fat intake, smoking prevalence and increases in fruit and vegetable consumption). Parameter uncertainty was explored by including probabilistic sensitivity analysis.Results: In the baseline scenario, we forecast that approximately 655,180 ischemic stroke and IHD deaths (306,500 in men; 348,600 in women) may occur in the age group of 35-94 between 2012 and 2022 in Turkey. Feasible interventions in population level policies might prevent approximately 108,000 (62,580-326,700) fewer stroke and IHD deaths. This could result in approximately a 17% reduction in total stroke and IHD deaths in 2022. Approximately 32%, 29%, 11% and 6% of that figure could be attributed to a decreased consumption of transfat, dietary salt, saturated fats and fall in smoking prevalence and 22% could be attributed to increased fruit and vegetable consumption. Feasible improvements in ischemic stroke treatment could prevent approximately 9% fewer ischemic stroke and IHD deaths by 2022.Conclusions: Our modeling study suggests that effective and evidence-based food policies at the population level could massively contribute to reduction in ischemic stroke and IHD mortality in a decade and deliver bigger gains compared to healthcare based interventions for primary and secondary prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland. Methods: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted. Results: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25–84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8–7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1–3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2–5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8–9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of UK mortality, generating a large and unequal burden of disease. Dietary trans fatty acids (TFA) represent a powerful CHD risk factor, yet to be addressed in the UK (approximately 1% daily energy) as successfully as in other nations. Potential outcomes of such measures, including effects upon health inequalities, have not been well quantified. We modelled the potential effects of specific reductions in TFA intake on CHD mortality, CHD related admissions, and effects upon socioeconomic inequalities. Methods & Results: We extended the previously validated IMPACTsec model, to estimate the potential effects of reductions (0.5% & 1% reductions in daily energy) in TFA intake in England and Wales, stratified by age, sex and socioeconomic circumstances. We estimated reductions in expected CHD deaths in 2030 attributable to these two specific reductions. Output measures were deaths prevented or postponed, life years gained and hospital admissions. A 1% reduction in TFA intake energy intake would generate approximately 3,900 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3,300–4,500) fewer deaths, 10,000 (8,800–10,300) (7% total) fewer hospital admissions and 37,000 (30,100–44,700) life years gained. This would also reduce health inequalities, preventing five times as many deaths and gaining six times as many life years in the most deprived quintile compared with the most affluent. A more modest reduction (0.5%) would still yield substantial health gains. Conclusions: Reducing intake of industrial TFA could substantially decrease CHD mortality and hospital admissions, and gain tens of thousands of life years. Crucially, this policy could also reduce health inequalities. UK strategies should therefore aim to minimise industrial TFA intake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Most projections of type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence are simply based on demographic change (i.e. ageing). We developed a model to predict future trends in T2D prevalence in Tunisia, explicitly taking into account trends in major risk factors (obesity and smoking). This could improve assessment of policy options for prevention and health service planning. Methods: The IMPACT T2D model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future T2D prevalence. We developed a model for the Tunisian population from 1997 to 2027, and validated the model outputs by comparing with a subsequent T2D prevalence survey conducted in 2005. Results: The model estimated that the prevalence of T2D among Tunisians aged over 25 years was 12.0% in 1997 (95% confidence intervals 9.6%-14.4%), increasing to 15.1% (12.5%-17.4%) in 2005. Between 1997 and 2005, observed prevalence in men increased from 13.5% to 16.1% and in women from 12.9% to 14.1%. The model forecast for a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2027 (26.6% overall, 28.6% in men and 24.7% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declined by 20% in the 10 years from 2013, and if smoking decreased by 20% over 10 years from 2009, a 3.3% reduction in T2D prevalence could be achieved in 2027 (2.5% in men and 4.1% in women). Conclusions: This innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. Responses will be evaluated in future population surveys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends. Methods and findings: The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25–74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: 1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. 2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040. Conclusions: The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Turkey since the early 1990s. Our study aimed to determine how much of the CHD mortality decrease in Turkey between 1995 and 2008 could be attributed to temporal trends in major risk factors and how much to advances in medical and surgical treatments. Methods: The validated IMPACT CHD mortality model was used to combine and analyse data on uptake and effectiveness of CHD treatments and risk factor trends in Turkey in adults aged 35-84 years between 1995 and 2008. Data sources were identified, searched and appraised on population, mortality and major CHD risk factors for adults those aged 35-84 years. Official statistics, electronic databases, national registers, surveys and published trials were screened from 1995 onwards. Results: Between 1995 and 2008, coronary heart disease mortality rates in Turkey decreased by 34% in men and 28% in women 35 years and over. This resulted in 35,720 fewer deaths in 2008. Approximately 47% of this mortality decrease was attributed to treatments in individuals (including approximately 16% to secondary prevention, 3% angina treatments, 9% to heart failure treatments, 5% to initial treatments of acute myocardial infarction, and 5% to hypertension treatments) and approximately 42% was attributable to population risk factor reductions (notably blood pressure 29%; smoking 27%; and cholesterol 1%). Adverse trends were seen for obesity and diabetes (potentially increasing mortality by approximately 11% and 14% respectively). The model explained almost 90% of the mortality fall. Conclusion: Reduction in major cardiovascular risk factors explained approximately 42% and improvements in medical and surgical treatments explained some 47% of the CHD mortality fall. These findings emphasize the complimentary value of primary prevention and evidence-based medical treatments in controlling coronary heart disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality increased in developed countries until the 1970s then started to decline. Turkey is about to complete its demographic transition, which may also influence mortality trends. This study evaluated trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality between 1988 and 2008. Methods: The number of deaths by cause (ICD-8), age and sex were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) annually between 1988 and 2008. Population statistics were based on census data (1990 and 2000) and Turkstat projections. European population standardised mortality rates for CHD and stroke were calculated for men and women over 35 years old. Joinpoint Regression was used to identify the points at which a statistically significant (p < 0.05) change of the trend occurred. Results: The CHD mortality rate increased by 2.9% in men and 2.0% in women annually from 1988 to 1994, then started to decline. The annual rate of decline for men was 1.7% between 1994-2008, whilst in women it was 2.8% between 1994-2000 and 6.7% between 2005-2008 (p < 0.05 for all periods). Stroke mortality declined between 1990-1994 (annual fall of 3.8% in both sexes), followed by a slight increase between 1994-2004 (0.6% in men, 1.1% in women), then a further decline until 2008 (annual reduction of 4.4% in men, 7.9% in women) (p < 0.05 for all periods). Conclusions: A decrease in CVD mortality was observed from 1995 onwards in Turkey. The causes need to be explored in detail to inform future policy priorities in noncommunicable disease control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents evidence from research into health system challenges of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes in four Eastern Mediterranean countries: the occupied Palestinian territory, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey. We address two questions. How has the health system in each country been conceptualised and organised to manage the provision of care for those with CVD or diabetes? And what were key concerns about the institutional ability to address this challenge? Research took place from 2009 to 2010, shortly before the political upheavals in the region, and notably in Syria and Tunisia. Data collection involved a review of key documents, interviews with key informants and brief data collection in clinics. In analysing the data, we adopted the analytical schema proposed by Walt and Gilson, distinguishing content, actors, context and process. Key findings from each country highlighted concerns about fragmented provision and a lack of coordination. Specific concerns included: the lack of patient referral pathways, functioning health information systems and investment in staff. Regarding issues underlying these ‘visible’ problems in managing these diseases, we highlight implications of the wider systemic pressure for reform of health-sector finance in each country, based on neoliberal models. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: In Tunisia, Cardiovascular Diseases are the leading causes of death (30%), 70% of those are coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths and population studies have demonstrated that major risk factor levels are increasing. Objective: To explain recent CHD trends in Tunisia between 1997 and 2009. Methods: Data Sources: Published and unpublished data were identified by extensive searches, complemented with specifically designed surveys. Analysis: Data were integrated and analyzed using the previously validated IMPACT CHD policy model. Data items included: (i)number of CHD patients in specific groups (including acute coronary syndromes, congestive heart failure and chronic angina)(ii) uptake of specific medical and surgical treatments, and(iii) population trends in major cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), diabetes and physical inactivity). Results: CHD mortality rates increased by 11.8% for men and 23.8% for women, resulting in 680 additional CHD deaths in 2009 compared with the 1997 baseline, after adjusting for population change. Almost all (98%) of this rise was explained by risk factor increases, though men and women differed. A large rise in total cholesterol level in men (0.73 mmol/L) generated 440 additional deaths. In women, a fall (−0.43 mmol/L), apparently avoided about 95 deaths. For SBP a rise in men (4 mmHg) generated 270 additional deaths. In women, a 2 mmHg fall avoided 65 deaths. BMI and diabetes increased substantially resulting respectively in 105 and 75 additional deaths. Increased treatment uptake prevented about 450 deaths in 2009. The most important contributions came from secondary prevention following Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) (95 fewer deaths), initial AMI treatments (90), antihypertensive medications (80) and unstable angina (75). Conclusions: Recent trends in CHD mortality mainly reflected increases in major modifiable risk factors, notably SBP and cholesterol, BMI and diabetes. Current prevention strategies are mainly focused on treatments but should become more comprehensive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Turkey since the early 1990s. Our study aimed to determine how much of the CHD mortality decrease in Turkey between 1995 and 2008 could be attributed to temporal trends in major risk factors and how much to advances in medical and surgical treatments. Methods The validated IMPACT CHD mortality model was used to combine and analyse data on uptake and effectiveness of CHD treatments and risk factor trends in Turkey in adults aged 35-84 years between 1995 and 2008. Data sources were identified, searched and appraised on population, mortality and major CHD risk factors for adults those aged 35-84 years. Official statistics, electronic databases, national registers, surveys and published trials were screened from 1995 onwards. Results Between 1995 and 2008, coronary heart disease mortality rates in Turkey decreased by 34% in men and 28% in women 35 years and over. This resulted in 35,720 fewer deaths in 2008. Approximately 47% of this mortality decrease was attributed to treatments in individuals (including approximately 16% to secondary prevention, 3% angina treatments, 9% to heart failure treatments, 5% to initial treatments of acute myocardial infarction, and 5% to hypertension treatments) and approximately 42% was attributable to population risk factor reductions (notably blood pressure 29%; smoking 27%; and cholesterol 1%). Adverse trends were seen for obesity and diabetes (potentially increasing mortality by approximately 11% and 14% respectively). The model explained almost 90% of the mortality fall. Conclusion Reduction in major cardiovascular risk factors explained approximately 42% and improvements in medical and surgical treatments explained some 47% of the CHD mortality fall. These findings emphasize the complimentary value of primary prevention and evidence-based medical treatments in controlling coronary heart disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]