Search

Background: Current patient selection for adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) after curative surgery for stage II colon cancer (CC) is suboptimal, causing overtreatment of high-risk patients and undertreatment of low-risk patients. Postoperative circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) could improve patient selection for ACT. Objectives: We conducted an early model-based evaluation of the (cost-)effectiveness of ctDNA-guided selection for ACT in stage II CC in the Netherlands to assess the conditions for cost-effective implementation. Methods: A validated Markov model, simulating 1000 stage II CC patients from diagnosis to death, was supplemented with ctDNA data. Five ACT selection strategies were evaluated: the current guideline (pT4, pMMR), ctDNA-only, and three strategies that combined ctDNA status with pT4 and pMMR status in different ways. For each strategy, the costs, life years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), recurrences, and CC deaths were estimated. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the impact of the costs of ctDNA testing, strategy adherence, ctDNA as a predictive biomarker, and ctDNA test performance. Results: Model predictions showed that compared to current guidelines, the ctDNA-only strategy was less effective (+2.2% recurrences, −0.016 QALYs), while the combination strategies were more effective (−3.6% recurrences, +0.038 QALYs). The combination strategies were not cost-effective, since the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €67,413 per QALY, exceeding the willingness-to-pay threshold of €50,000 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses showed that the combination strategies would be cost-effective if the ctDNA test costs were lower than €1500, or if ctDNA status was predictive of treatment response, or if the ctDNA test performance improved substantially. Conclusion: Adding ctDNA to current high-risk clinicopathological features (pT4 and pMMR) can improve patient selection for ACT and can also potentially be cost-effective. Future studies should investigate the predictive value of post-surgery ctDNA status to accurately evaluate the cost-effectiveness of ctDNA testing for ACT decisions in stage II CC. Plain language summary: Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of circulating tumour DNA-guided selection for adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with stage II colon cancer Most patients with stage II colon cancer (CC) are cured by surgery. Therefore, guidelines recommend to only offer adjuvant chemotherapy to patients who have a tumor with high-risk features. However, current selection is suboptimal, leading to recurrence of cancer in 13% of low-risk patients and unnecessary administration of chemotherapy in some high-risk patients. Previous studies indicate that a biomarker, so-called circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA), could improve the selection of high-risk patients for adjuvant chemotherapy, as patients who have detectable ctDNA in their blood after surgery are likely to develop a recurrence. Despite its potential, implementation is still pending. Our study assessed the long-term effectiveness and costs associated with various ctDNA-guided strategies for selecting high-risk patients for adjuvant chemotherapy in stage II CC. We used an health-economic model to simulate a cohort of 1000 Dutch patients with stage II CC from diagnosis to death. Next, we compared the health outcomes and costs of the ctDNA-guided strategies to those when selection is based on the Dutch guideline. We found that a combination of the Dutch guideline and ctDNA was the most effective strategy, but not cost-effective. Additional analyses showed that ctDNA-guided selection were cost-effective if the costs of the ctDNA test were below 1500 euros, if the ctDNA test performed significantly better, or if patients with detectable ctDNA responded better to chemotherapy. Thus, while post-surgery ctDNA status is a good indicator for recurrence risk, specific criteria related to ctDNA test performance and costs, in addition to combining ctDNA with current high-risk features, should be met to achieve cost-effective implementation. Looking ahead, future studies should explore how patients with detectable ctDNA respond to chemotherapy for next assessments of the cost-effectiveness of ctDNA-guided strategies in selecting patients with stage II CC for adjuvant chemotherapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: We aimed to perform an early cost-effectiveness analysis of using a whole-genome sequencing-based tumor mutation burden (WGS-TMB), instead of programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1), for immunotherapy treatment selection in patients with non-squamous advanced/metastatic non-small cell lung cancer ineligible for targeted therapy, from a Dutch healthcare perspective. Methods: A decision-model simulating individual patients with metastatic non-small cell lung cancer was used to evaluate diagnostic strategies to select first-line immunotherapy only or the immunotherapy plus chemotherapy combination. Treatment was selected using PD-L1 [A, current practice], WGS-TMB [B], and both PD-L1 and WGS-TMB [C]. Strategies D, E, and F take into account a patient's disease burden, in addition to PD-L1, WGS-TMB, and both PD-L1 and WGS-TMB, respectively. Disease burden was defined as a fast-growing tumor, a high number of metastases, and/or weight loss. A threshold of 10 mutations per mega-base was used to classify patients into TMB-high and TMB-low groups. Outcomes were discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and healthcare costs measured from the start of first-line treatment to death. Healthcare costs includes drug acquisition, follow-up costs, and molecular diagnostic tests (i.e., standard diagnostic techniques and/or WGS for strategies involving TMB). Results were reported using the net monetary benefit at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €80,000/QALY. Additional scenario and threshold analyses were performed. Results: Strategy B had the lowest QALYs (1.84) and lowest healthcare costs (€120,800). The highest QALYs and healthcare costs were 2.00 and €140,400 in strategy F. In the base-case analysis, strategy A was cost effective with the highest net monetary benefit (€27,300), followed by strategy B (€26,700). Strategy B was cost effective when the cost of WGS testing was decreased by at least 24% or when immunotherapy results in an additional 0.5 year of life gained or more for TMB high compared with TMB low. Strategies C and F, which combined TMB and PD-L1 had the highest net monetary benefit (≥ €76,900) when the cost of WGS testing, immunotherapy, and chemotherapy acquisition were simultaneously reduced by at least 47%, 39%, and 43%, respectively. Furthermore, strategy C resulted in the highest net monetary benefit (≥ €39,900) in a scenario where patients with both PD-L1 low and TMB low were treated with chemotherapy instead of immunotherapy plus chemotherapy. Conclusions: The use of WGS-TMB is not cost effective compared to PD-L1 for immunotherapy treatment selection in non-squamous metastatic non-small cell lung cancer in the Netherlands. WGS-TMB could become cost effective provided there is a reduction in the cost of WGS testing or there is an increase in the predictive value of WGS-TMB for immunotherapy effectiveness. Alternatively, a combination strategy of PD-L1 testing with WGS-TMB would be cost effective if used to support the choice to withhold immunotherapy in patients with a low expected benefit of immunotherapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision makers frequently face decisions about optimal resource allocation. A model-based economic evaluation can be used to guide decision makers in their choices by systematically evaluating the magnitude of expected health effects and costs of decision options and by making trade-offs explicit. We provide a guide to an iterative approach to the medical decision-making process by following a coherent framework, and outline the overarching iterative steps of model-based decision making. We systematized the framework by performing three steps. First, we compiled the existing guidelines provided by the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force, and the ISPOR Value of Information Task Force. Second, we identified other previous work related to frameworks and guidelines for model-based decision analyses through a literature search in PubMed. Third, we assessed the role of the evidence and iterative process in decision making and formalized key steps in a model-based decision-making framework. We provide guidance on an iterative approach to medical decision making by applying the compiled iterative model-based decision-making framework. The framework formally combines the decision problem conceptualization (Part I), the model conceptualization and development (Part II), and the process of model-based decision analysis (Part III). Following the overarching steps of the framework ensures compliance to the principles of evidence-based medicine and regular updates of the evidence, given that value of information analysis represents an essential component of model-based decision analysis in the framework. Following the provided guide and the steps outlined in the framework can help inform various health care decisions, and therefore it has the potential to improve decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is among the most frequently diagnosed cancers. Approximately 20–30% of stage I-III CRC patients develop a recurrent tumour or metastases after curative surgical resection. Post-operative follow-up is indicated for the first five years after curative surgical resection. As intensified follow-up after curative surgical resection has shown no effect on survival, patient organisations and policy makers have advocated for a more patient-centred approach to follow-up. The objective of this study is to successfully implement patient-led, home-based follow-up (PHFU) in six hospitals in The Netherlands, with as ultimate aim to come to a recommendation for a patient-centred follow-up schedule for stage I-III CRC patients treated with surgical resection with curative intent. Methods: This study is designed as a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial (SW-CRT) in six participating centres. During the trial, three centres will implement PHFU after six months; the other three centres will implement PHFU after 12 months of inclusion in the control group. Eligible patients are those with pT2-4N0M0 or pT1-4N1-2M0 CRC, who are 18 years or older and have been free of disease for 12 months after curative surgical resection. The studied intervention is PHFU, starting 12 months after curative resection. The in-hospital, standard-of-care follow-up currently implemented in the participating centres functions as the comparator. The proportion of patients who had contact with the hospital regarding CRC follow-up between 12–24 months after curative surgical resection is the primary endpoint of this study. Quality of life, fear of cancer recurrence, patient satisfaction, cost-effectiveness and survival are the secondary endpoints. Discussion: The results of this study will provide evidence on whether nationwide implementation of PHFU for CRC in The Netherlands will be successful in reducing contact between patient and health care provider. Comparison of PROMs between in-hospital follow-up and PHFU will be provided. Moreover, the cost-effectiveness of PHFU will be assessed. Trial registration: Dutch Trail Register (NTR): NL9266 (Registered on January 1st, 2021). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent discoveries in molecular diagnostics and drug treatments have improved the treatment of patients with advanced (inoperable) non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) from solely platinum-based chemotherapy to more personalized treatment, including targeted therapies and immunotherapies. However, these improvements come at considerable costs, highlighting the need to assess their cost-effectiveness in order to optimize lung cancer care. Traditionally, cost-effectiveness models for the evaluation of new lung cancer treatments were based on the findings of the randomized control trials (RCTs). However, the strict RCT inclusion criteria make RCT patients not representative of patients in the real-world. Patients in RCTs have a better prognosis than patients in a real-world setting. Therefore, in this study, we developed and validated a diagnosis-treatment decision model for patients with advanced (inoperable) non-squamous NSCLC based on real-world data in the Netherlands. The model is a patient-level microsimulation model implemented as discrete event simulation with five health events. Patients are simulated from diagnosis to death, including at most three treatment lines. The base-model (non-personalized strategy) was populated using real-world data of patients treated with platinum-based chemotherapy between 2008 and 2014 in one of six Dutch teaching hospitals. To simulate personalized care, molecular tumor characteristics were incorporated in the model based on the literature. The impact of novel targeted treatments and immunotherapies was included based on published RCTs. To validate the model, we compared survival under a personalized treatment strategy with observed real-world survival. This model can be used for health-care evaluation of personalized treatment for patients with advanced (inoperable) NSCLC in the Netherlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evidence on the cost-effectiveness of eHealth in palliative care is scarce. Oncokompas, a fully automated behavioral intervention technology, aims to support self-management in cancer patients. This study aimed to assess the cost-utility of the eHealth application Oncokompas among incurably ill cancer patients, compared to care as usual. In this randomized controlled trial, patients were randomized into the intervention group (access to Oncokompas) or the waiting-list control group (access after three months). Healthcare costs, productivity losses, and health status were measured at baseline and three months. Intervention costs were also taken into account. Non-parametric bootstrapping with 5000 replications was used to obtain 95% confidence intervals around the incremental costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). A probabilistic approach was used because of the skewness of cost data. Altogether, 138 patients completed the baseline questionnaire and were randomly assigned to the intervention group (69) or the control group (69). In the base case analysis, mean total costs and mean total effects were non-significantly lower in the intervention group (−€806 and −0.01 QALYs). The probability that the intervention was more effective and less costly was 4%, whereas the probability of being less effective and less costly was 74%. Among patients with incurable cancer, Oncokompas does not impact incremental costs and seems slightly less effective in terms of QALYs, compared to care as usual. Future research on the costs of eHealth in palliative cancer care is warranted to assess the generalizability of the findings of this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To optimize colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and surveillance, information regarding the time-dependent risk of advanced adenomas (AA) to develop into CRC is crucial. However, since AA are removed after diagnosis, the time from AA to CRC cannot be observed in an ethically acceptable manner. We propose a statistical method to indirectly infer this time in a progressive three-state disease model using surveillance data.Methods: Sixteen models were specified, with and without covariates. Parameters of the parametric time-to-event distributions from the adenoma-free state (AF) to AA and from AA to CRC were estimated simultaneously, by maximizing the likelihood function. Model performance was assessed via simulation. The methodology was applied to a random sample of 878 individuals from a Norwegian adenoma cohort.Results: Estimates of the parameters of the time distributions are consistent and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs) have good coverage. For the Norwegian sample (AF: 78%, AA: 20%, CRC: 2%), a Weibull model for both transition times was selected as the final model based on information criteria. The mean time among those who have made the transition to CRC since AA onset within 50 years was estimated to be 4.80 years (95% CI: 0; 7.61). The 5-year and 10-year cumulative incidence of CRC from AA was 13.8% (95% CI: 7.8%;23.8%) and 15.4% (95% CI: 8.2%;34.0%), respectively.Conclusions: The time-dependent risk from AA to CRC is crucial to explain differences in the outcomes of microsimulation models used for the optimization of CRC prevention. Our method allows for improving models by the inclusion of data-driven time distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The risk of recurrence after resection of a stage II or III colon cancer, and therefore qualification for adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT), is traditionally based on clinicopathological parameters. However, the parameters used in clinical practice are not able to accurately identify all patients with or without minimal residual disease. Some patients considered 'low-risk' do develop recurrence (undertreatment), whilst other patients receiving ACT might not have developed recurrence at all (overtreatment). We previously analysed tumour tissue expression of 28 protein biomarkers that might improve identification of patients at risk of recurrence. In the present study we aimed to build a prognostic classifier based on these 28 biomarkers and clinicopathological parameters.Methods: Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was used to build a prognostic classifier based on a well described cohort of 386 patients with stage II and III colon cancer. Separate classifiers were built for patients who were or were not treated with ACT. Routine clinicopathological parameters and tumour tissue immunohistochemistry data were included, available for 28 proteins previously published. Classification trees were pruned until lowest misclassification error was obtained. Survival of the identified subgroups was analysed, and robustness of the selected CART variables was assessed by random forest analysis (1000 trees).Results: In patients not treated with ACT, prognosis was estimated best based on expression of KCNQ1. Poor disease-free survival (DFS) was observed in those with loss of expression of KCNQ1 (HR = 3.38 (95% CI 2.12 - 5.40); p < 0.001). In patients treated with ACT, key prognostic factors were lymphovascular invasion (LVI) and expression of KCNQ1. Patients with LVI showed poorest DFS, whilst patients without LVI and high expression of KCNQ1 showed most favourable survival (HR = 7.50 (95% CI 3.57-15.74); p < 0.001). Patients without LVI and loss of expression of KCNQ1 had intermediate survival (HR = 3.91 (95% CI 1.76 - 8.72); p = 0.001).Conclusion: KCNQ1 and LVI were identified as key features in prognostic classifiers for disease-free survival in stage II and III colon cancer patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Metamodeling may substantially reduce the computational expense of individual-level state transition simulation models (IL-STM) for calibration, uncertainty quantification, and health policy evaluation. However, because of the lack of guidance and readily available computer code, metamodels are still not widely used in health economics and public health. In this study, we provide guidance on how to choose a metamodel for uncertainty quantification. Methods: We built a simulation study to evaluate the prediction accuracy and computational expense of metamodels for uncertainty quantification using life-years gained (LYG) by treatment as the IL-STM outcome. We analyzed how metamodel accuracy changes with the characteristics of the simulation model using a linear model (LM), Gaussian process regression (GP), generalized additive models (GAMs), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). Finally, we tested these metamodels in a case study consisting of a probabilistic analysis of a lung cancer IL-STM. Results: In a scenario with low uncertainty in model parameters (i.e., small confidence interval), sufficient numbers of simulated life histories, and simulation model runs, commonly used metamodels (LM, ANNs, GAMs, and GP) have similar, good accuracy, with errors smaller than 1% for predicting LYG. With a higher level of uncertainty in model parameters, the prediction accuracy of GP and ANN is superior to LM. In the case study, we found that in the worst case, the best metamodel had an error of about 2.1%. Conclusion: To obtain good prediction accuracy, in an efficient way, we recommend starting with LM, and if the resulting accuracy is insufficient, we recommend trying ANNs and eventually also GP regression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND : The European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) has developed a core curriculum for high quality optical diagnosis training for practice across Europe. The development of easy-to-measure competence standards for optical diagnosis can optimize clinical decision-making in endoscopy. This manuscript represents an official Position Statement of the ESGE aiming to define simple, safe, and easy-to-measure competence standards for endoscopists and artificial intelligence systems performing optical diagnosis of diminutive colorectal polyps (1 - 5 mm). METHODS : A panel of European experts in optical diagnosis participated in a modified Delphi process to reach consensus on Simple Optical Diagnosis Accuracy (SODA) competence standards for implementation of the optical diagnosis strategy for diminutive colorectal polyps. In order to assess the clinical benefits and harms of implementing optical diagnosis with different competence standards, a systematic literature search was performed. This was complemented with the results from a recently performed simulation study that provides guidance for setting alternative competence standards for optical diagnosis. Proposed competence standards were based on literature search and simulation study results. Competence standards were accepted if at least 80 % agreement was reached after a maximum of three voting rounds. RECOMMENDATION 1:  In order to implement the leave-in-situ strategy for diminutive colorectal lesions (1-5 mm), it is clinically acceptable if, during real-time colonoscopy, at least 90 % sensitivity and 80 % specificity is achieved for high confidence endoscopic characterization of colorectal neoplasia of 1-5 mm in the rectosigmoid. Histopathology is used as the gold standard.Level of agreement 95 %. RECOMMENDATION 2:  In order to implement the resect-and-discard strategy for diminutive colorectal lesions (1-5 mm), it is clinically acceptable if, during real-time colonoscopy, at least 80 % sensitivity and 80 % specificity is achieved for high confidence endoscopic characterization of colorectal neoplasia of 1-5 mm. Histopathology is used as the gold standard.Level of agreement 100 %. CONCLUSION : The developed SODA competence standards define diagnostic performance thresholds in relation to clinical consequences, for training and for use when auditing the optical diagnosis of diminutive colorectal polyps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) harbours many genetic aberrations that can be targeted with systemic treatments. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) can simultaneously detect these (and possibly new) molecular targets. However, the exact added clinical value of WGS is unknown. Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the early cost effectiveness of using WGS in diagnostic strategies compared with currently used molecular diagnostics for patients with inoperable stage IIIB,C/IV non-squamous NSCLC from a Dutch healthcare perspective. Methods: A decision tree represented the diagnostic pathway, and a cohort state transition model represented disease progression. Three diagnostic strategies were modelled: standard of care (SoC) alone, WGS as a diagnostic test, and SoC followed by WGS. Treatment effectiveness was based on a systematic review. Probabilistic cost-effectiveness analyses were performed, and threshold analyses (using €80,000 per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]) was used to explore the early cost effectiveness of WGS. Results: WGS as a diagnostic test resulted in more QALYs (0.002) and costs (€1534 [incremental net monetary benefit –€1349]), and SoC followed by WGS resulted in fewer QALYs (–0.002) and more costs (€1059 [–€1194]) compared with SoC alone. WGS as a diagnostic test was only cost effective if it was priced at €2000 per patient and identified 2.7% more actionable patients than SoC alone. Treating these additional identified patients with new treatments costing >€4069 per month decreased the probability of cost effectiveness. Conclusions: Our analysis suggests that providing WGS as a diagnostic test is cost effective compared with SoC followed by WGS and SoC alone if costs for WGS decrease and additional patients with actionable targets are identified. This cost-effectiveness model can be used to incorporate new findings iteratively and to support ongoing decision making regarding the use of WGS in this rapidly evolving field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Patient's quality of life should be included in clinical decision making regarding the administration of adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) in stage II/III colon cancer. Therefore, quality of life, summarized as health utility (HU), was evaluated for patients treated with and without ACT. Furthermore, the role of chemotherapy–induced peripheral neuropathy (CIPN) on HU was evaluated. Patients diagnosed with stage II/III colon cancer between 2011 and 2019 and participating in the Prospective Dutch ColoRectal Cancer cohort were included (n = 914). HU scores were assessed with the EQ‐5D‐5L at baseline, 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Patients treated with ACT received mainly capecitabine and oxaliplatin (57%) or capecitabine monotherapy (40%) (average duration: 3.5 months). HU 3 to 18 months after diagnosis (potential ACT period + 12 months follow‐up) was compared between patients treated with and without ACT using a mixed model adjusted for age, sex and education level. Subsequently, the CIPN sensory, motor and autonomy scales, measured using the EORTC QLQ‐CIPN20, were independently included in the model to evaluate the impact of neuropathy. Using a mixed model, a significant difference of −0.039 (95% confidence interval: −0.062; −0.015) in HU was found between patients treated with and without ACT. Including the CIPN sensory, motor and autonomy scales decreased the difference with 0.019, 0.015 and 0.02, respectively. HU 3 to 18 months after diagnosis is significantly lower in patients treated with ACT vs without ACT. This difference is on the boundary of clinical relevance and appears to be partly related to the sensory and motor neuropathy‐related side effects of ACT. What's new? Given its potentially serious side effects, patient quality of life should be included in clinical decision‐making regarding the administration of adjuvant chemotherapy in stage II/III colon cancer. Using a mixed model which was corrected for relevant covariates, here the authors found a statistically‐significant but small decrease in HU of −0.039 during chemotherapy and the following 12 months for patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy compared to patients without adjuvant chemotherapy. The decrease in HU, which is on the boundary of clinical relevance, appears to be partly related to sensory and motor neuropathy side effects of adjuvant chemotherapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of risk-based strategies to improve the selection of surgically treated stage II colon cancer (CC) patients for adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods: Using the 'Personalized Adjuvant TreaTment in EaRly stage coloN cancer' (PATTERN) model, we evaluated five selection strategies: (1) no chemotherapy, (2) Dutch guideline recommendations assuming observed adherence, (3) Dutch guideline recommendations assuming perfect adherence, (4) biomarker mutation OR pT4 stage strategy in which patients with MSS status combined with a pT4 stage or a mutation in BRAF and/or KRAS receive chemotherapy assuming perfect adherence and (5) biomarker mutation AND pT4 stage strategy in which patients with MSS status combined with a pT4 stage tumor and a BRAF and/or KRAS mutation receive chemotherapy assuming perfect adherence. Outcomes were number of CC deaths per 1000 patients and total discounted costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per patient (pp). Analyses were conducted from a societal perspective. The robustness of model predictions was assessed in sensitivity analyses. Results: The reference strategy, that is, no adjuvant chemotherapy, resulted in 139 CC deaths in a cohort of 1000 patients, 8.077 QALYs pp and total costs of €22,032 pp. Strategies 2–5 were more effective (range 8.094–8.217 QALYs pp and range 118–136 CC deaths per 1000 patients) and more costly (range €22,404–€25,102 pp). Given a threshold of €50,000/QALY, the optimal use of resources would be to treat patients with either the full adherence strategy and biomarker mutation OR pT4 stage strategy. Conclusion: Selection of stage II CC patients for chemotherapy can be improved by either including biomarker status in the selection strategy or by improving adherence to the Dutch guideline recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: After curative treatment of primary non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), patients undergo intensive surveillance with the aim to detect recurrences from the primary tumor or metachronous second primary lung cancer as early as possible and improve overall survival. However, the benefit of surveillance is debated. Available evidence is of low quality and conflicting. Microsimulation modeling facilitates the exploration of the impact of different surveillance strategies and provides insight into the cost-effectiveness of surveillance. Methods: A microsimulation model was used to simulate a range of computed tomography (CT)–based surveillance schedules, differing in the frequency and duration of CT surveillance. The impact on survival, quality-adjusted life-years, costs, and cost-effectiveness of each schedule was assessed. Results: Ten of 108 strategies formed the cost-effectiveness frontier; that is, these were the strategies with the optimal cost-health benefit balance. Per person, the discounted QALYs of these strategies varied between 5.72 and 5.81 y, and discounted costs varied between €9892 and €19,259. Below a willingness-to-pay threshold of €50,000/QALY, no scanning is the preferred option. For a willingness-to-pay threshold of €80,000/QALY, surveillance scanning every 2 y starting 1 y after curative treatment becomes the best option, with €11,860 discounted costs and 5.76 discounted QALYs per person. The European Society for Medical Oncology guideline strategy was more expensive and less effective than several other strategies. Conclusion: Model simulations suggest that limited CT surveillance scanning after the treatment of primary NSCLC is cost-effective, but the incremental health-benefit remains marginal. However, model simulations do suggest that the guideline strategy is not cost-effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of risk-based strategies to improve the selection of surgically treated stage II colon cancer (CC) patients for adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods: Using the 'Personalized Adjuvant TreaTment in EaRly stage coloN cancer' (PATTERN) model, we evaluated five selection strategies: (1) no chemotherapy, (2) Dutch guideline recommendations assuming observed adherence, (3) Dutch guideline recommendations assuming perfect adherence, (4) biomarker mutation OR pT4 stage strategy in which patients with MSS status combined with a pT4 stage or a mutation in BRAF and/or KRAS receive chemotherapy assuming perfect adherence and (5) biomarker mutation AND pT4 stage strategy in which patients with MSS status combined with a pT4 stage tumor and a BRAF and/or KRAS mutation receive chemotherapy assuming perfect adherence. Outcomes were number of CC deaths per 1000 patients and total discounted costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per patient (pp). Analyses were conducted from a societal perspective. The robustness of model predictions was assessed in sensitivity analyses. Results: The reference strategy, that is, no adjuvant chemotherapy, resulted in 139 CC deaths in a cohort of 1000 patients, 8.077 QALYs pp and total costs of €22,032 pp. Strategies 2–5 were more effective (range 8.094–8.217 QALYs pp and range 118–136 CC deaths per 1000 patients) and more costly (range €22,404–€25,102 pp). Given a threshold of €50,000/QALY, the optimal use of resources would be to treat patients with either the full adherence strategy and biomarker mutation OR pT4 stage strategy. Conclusion: Selection of stage II CC patients for chemotherapy can be improved by either including biomarker status in the selection strategy or by improving adherence to the Dutch guideline recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Our aim was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of 3 months' adjuvant chemotherapy versus 6 months in high-risk (T4 stage + microsatellite stable) stage II colon cancer (CC) patients. Methods: Using the validated PATTERN Markov cohort model, which simulates the disease progression of stage II CC patients from diagnosis to death, we first evaluated a reference strategy in which high-risk patients were treated with chemotherapy for 6 months. In the second strategy, treatment duration was shortened to 3 months. Both strategies were evaluated for CAPOX (capecitabine plus oxaliplatin) and FOLFOX (fluorouracil, leucovorin and oxaliplatin). Based on trial data, we assumed that shortened treatment duration compared with a 6-month regimen was equally effective for CAPOX and less effective for FOLFOX. Adverse events were highest in the 6-month strategy. Analyses were conducted from a societal perspective using a lifelong time horizon. Outcomes were number of CC deaths per 1000 patients and total discounted costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per patient (pp). Incremental net monetary benefit (iNMB) was calculated using a willingness-to-pay value of €50,000/QALY. Results: For CAPOX, the 6-month strategy resulted in 316 CC deaths per 1000 patients, 6.71 QALYs pp and total costs of €41,257 pp. The 3-month strategy resulted in an equal number of CC deaths, but higher QALYs (6.80 pp) and lower costs (€37,645 pp), leading to a iNMB of €8454 per person for 3 months versus 6 months. For FOLFOX, the 6-month strategy resulted in 316 CC deaths per 1000 patients, 6.71 QALYs pp and total costs of €47,135 pp. The 3-month strategy resulted in more CC deaths (393), lower QALYs (6.19 pp) and lower costs (€44,389 pp). An iNMB of −€23,189 was found for 3 months versus 6 months. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that 3 months' adjuvant chemotherapy should be considered as standard of care in high-risk stage II CC patients for CAPOX, but not for FOLFOX. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To develop a decision model for the population-level evaluation of strategies to improve the selection of stage II colon cancer (CC) patients who benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy.Methods: A Markov cohort model with a one-month cycle length and a lifelong time horizon was developed. Five health states were included; diagnosis, 90-day mortality, death other causes, recurrence and CC death. Data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry were used to parameterize the model. Transition probabilities were estimated using parametric survival models including relevant clinical and pathological covariates. Subsequently, biomarker status was implemented using external data. Treatment effect was incorporated using pooled trial data. Model development, data sources used, parameter estimation, and internal and external validation are described in detail. To illustrate the use of the model, three example strategies were evaluated in which allocation of treatment was based on (A) 100% adherence to the Dutch guidelines, (B) observed adherence to guideline recommendations and (C) a biomarker-driven strategy.Results: Overall, the model showed good internal and external validity. Age, tumor growth, tumor sidedness, evaluated lymph nodes, and biomarker status were included as covariates. For the example strategies, the model predicted 83, 87 and 77 CC deaths after 5 years in a cohort of 1000 patients for strategies A, B and C, respectively.Conclusion: This model can be used to evaluate strategies for the allocation of adjuvant chemotherapy in stage II CC patients. In future studies, the model will be used to estimate population-level long-term health gain and cost-effectiveness of biomarker-based selection strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. This study aimed to assess the validity of 2 microsimulation models of colorectal cancer (CRC), Policy1-Bowel and ASCCA. Methods. The model-estimated CRC risk in population subgroups with different health statuses, "dwell time" (time from incident precancerous polyp to symptomatically detected CRC), and reduction in symptomatically detected CRC incidence after a one-time complete removal of polyps and/or undetected CRC were compared with published findings from 3 well-established models (MISCAN, CRC-SPIN, and SimCRC). Furthermore, 6 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that provided screening using a guaiac fecal occult blood test (Funen trial, Burgundy trial, and Minnesota Colon Cancer Control Study [MCCCS]) or flexible sigmoidoscopy (NORCCAP, SCORE, and UKFSST) with long-term follow-up were simulated. Model-estimated long-term relative reductions of CRC incidence (RR inc ) and mortality (RR mort ) were compared with the RCTs' findings. Results. The Policy1-Bowel and ASCCA estimates showed more similarities to CRC-SPIN and SimCRC. For example, overall dwell times estimated by Policy1-Bowel (24.0 years) and ASCCA (25.3) were comparable to CRC-SPIN (25.8) and SimCRC (25.2) but higher than MISCAN (10.6). In addition, ∼86% of Policy1-Bowel 's and ∼74% of ASCCA 's estimated RR inc and RR mort were consistent with the RCTs' long-term follow-up findings. For example, at 17 to 18 years of follow-up, the MCCCS reported RR mort of 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.51–0.83) and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.62–0.97) for the annual and biennial screening arm, respectively, and the UKFSST reported RR mort of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.62–0.79) for CRC at all sites and 0.54 (95% CI, 0.46–0.65) for distal CRC. The corresponding model estimates were 0.65, 0.74, 0.81, and 0.61, respectively, for Policy1-Bowel and 0.65, 0.70, 0.75, and 0.58, respectively, for ASCCA. Conclusion. Policy1-Bowel and ASCCA 's estimates are largely consistent with the data included for comparisons, which indicates good model validity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Treatment decision-making for patients with incurable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is complex due to the rapidly increasing number of treatments and discovery of new biomarkers. Decision support systems (DSS) could assist thoracic oncologists (TO) weighing of the pros and cons of treatments in order to arrive at an evidence-based and personalized treatment advice. Our aim is to inventory (1) TO's needs with regard to DSS in the treatment of incurable (stage IIIB/IV) NSCLC patients, and (2) preferences regarding the development of future tools in this field. We disseminated an online inventory questionnaire among all members of the Section of Oncology within the Society of Physicians in Chest Medicine and Tuberculosis. Telephone interviews were conducted to better contextualize the findings from the questionnaire. In total, 58 TO completed the questionnaire and expressed a need for new DSS. They reported that it is important for tools to include genetic and immune markers, to be sufficiently validated, regularly updated, and time-efficient. Also, future DSS should incorporate multiple treatment options, integrate estimates of toxicity, quality of life and cost-effectiveness of treatments, enhance communication between caregivers and patients, and use IT solutions for a clear interface and continuous updating of tools. With this inventory among Dutch TO, we summarized the need for new DSS to aid treatment decision-making for patients with incurable NSCLC. To meet the expressed needs, substantial additional efforts will be required by DSS developers, above already existing tools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Incurable cancer does not only affect patients, it also affects the lives of their partners. Many partners take on caregiving responsibilities. The burden of these caregiving tasks are often associated with physical, psychological, and social difficulties and many partners have unmet supportive care needs. Oncokompas is an eHealth self-management application to support partners in finding and obtaining optimal supportive care, tailored to their quality of life and personal preferences. A randomized controlled trial will be carried out to determine the efficacy and cost-utility of Oncokompas.Methods: A total of 136 adult partners of patients with incurable cancer will be included. Partners will be randomly assigned to the intervention group, which directly gets access to Oncokompas, or the waiting-list control group, which gets access to Oncokompas after three months. The primary outcome measure is caregiver burden. Secondary outcome measures comprise self-efficacy, health-related quality of life, and costs. Measures will be assessed at baseline, two weeks after randomization, and three months after the baseline measurement.Discussion: This study will result in evidence on the efficacy and cost-utility of Oncokompas among partners of patients with incurable cancer, which might lead to implementation of Oncokompas as a health service for partners of patients with incurable cancer.Trial Registration: Netherlands Trial Register, NTR 7636. Registered on 23 November 2018. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Our aim was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of 3 months' adjuvant chemotherapy versus 6 months in high-risk (T4 stage + microsatellite stable) stage II colon cancer (CC) patients. Methods: Using the validated PATTERN Markov cohort model, which simulates the disease progression of stage II CC patients from diagnosis to death, we first evaluated a reference strategy in which high-risk patients were treated with chemotherapy for 6 months. In the second strategy, treatment duration was shortened to 3 months. Both strategies were evaluated for CAPOX (capecitabine plus oxaliplatin) and FOLFOX (fluorouracil, leucovorin and oxaliplatin). Based on trial data, we assumed that shortened treatment duration compared with a 6-month regimen was equally effective for CAPOX and less effective for FOLFOX. Adverse events were highest in the 6-month strategy. Analyses were conducted from a societal perspective using a lifelong time horizon. Outcomes were number of CC deaths per 1000 patients and total discounted costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per patient (pp). Incremental net monetary benefit (iNMB) was calculated using a willingness-to-pay value of €50,000/QALY. Results: For CAPOX, the 6-month strategy resulted in 316 CC deaths per 1000 patients, 6.71 QALYs pp and total costs of €41,257 pp. The 3-month strategy resulted in an equal number of CC deaths, but higher QALYs (6.80 pp) and lower costs (€37,645 pp), leading to a iNMB of €8454 per person for 3 months versus 6 months. For FOLFOX, the 6-month strategy resulted in 316 CC deaths per 1000 patients, 6.71 QALYs pp and total costs of €47,135 pp. The 3-month strategy resulted in more CC deaths (393), lower QALYs (6.19 pp) and lower costs (€44,389 pp). An iNMB of −€23,189 was found for 3 months versus 6 months. Conclusion: Our findings indicate that 3 months' adjuvant chemotherapy should be considered as standard of care in high-risk stage II CC patients for CAPOX, but not for FOLFOX. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer worldwide. Accurately identifying stage II CRC patients at risk for recurrence is an unmet clinical need. KCNQ1 was previously identified as a tumour suppressor gene and loss of expression was associated with poor survival in patients with CRC liver metastases. In this study the prognostic value of KCNQ1 in stage II and stage III colon cancer patients was examined.Methods: KCNQ1 mRNA expression was assessed in 90 stage II colon cancer patients (AMC-AJCCII-90) using microarray gene expression data. Subsequently, KCNQ1 protein expression was evaluated in an independent cohort of 386 stage II and stage III colon cancer patients by immunohistochemistry of tissue microarrays.Results: Low KCNQ1 mRNA expression in stage II microsatellite stable (MSS) colon cancers was associated with poor disease-free survival (DFS) (P=0.025). Loss of KCNQ1 protein expression from epithelial cells was strongly associated with poor DFS in stage II MSS (P<0.0001), stage III MSS (P=0.0001) and stage III microsatellite instable colon cancers (P=0.041). KCNQ1 seemed an independent prognostic value in addition to other high-risk parameters like angio-invasion, nodal stage and microsatellite instability-status.Conclusions: We conclude that KCNQ1 is a promising biomarker for prediction of disease recurrence and may aid stratification of patients with stage II MSS colon cancer for adjuvant chemotherapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Decision-making about palliative care for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) consists of many different treatment-related decisions, and there generally is no best treatment option. Decision support systems (DSS), e.g., prognostic calculators, can aid oncologists' decision-making. DSS that contain features tailored to the needs of oncologists are more likely to be implemented in clinical practice. Therefore, our aim is to inventory colorectal cancer specialists' unmet decision support needs.Methods: We asked oncologists from the Dutch colorectal cancer group (DCCG), to participate in an online inventory questionnaire on their unmet decision support needs. To get more in-depth insight in required features of the DSS they need, we also conducted semi-structured telephone interviews.Results: Forty-one oncologists started the inventory questionnaire, and 27 of them completed all items. Of all respondents, 18 were surgeons (44%), 22 were medical oncologists (54%), and 28 (68%) had more than 10 years of experience treating mCRC. In both the inventory questionnaire and interviews, respondents expressed a need for an overarching DSS incorporating multiple treatment options, and presenting both the treatment benefits and harms. Respondents found it relevant for other outcomes, such as cost-effectiveness of treatment or quality of life, to be incorporated in DSS. There was also a wish for DSS incorporating an up-to-date "personalized" overview of the ongoing trials for which a specific patient is eligible.Conclusions: Experienced oncologists indicate that their treatment advice is currently almost solely based on the available clinical guidelines. They experience a lack of good quality DSS to help them personalize their treatment advice. New tools integrating multiple treatment options and providing a broad range of clinically relevant outcomes are urgently needed to stimulate and safeguard more personalized treatment decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and microwave ablation (MWA) are widely accepted techniques to eliminate small unresectable colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). Although previous studies labelled thermal ablation inferior to surgical resection, the apparent selection bias when comparing patients with unresectable disease to surgical candidates, the superior safety profile, and the competitive overall survival results for the more recent reports mandate the setup of a randomized controlled trial. The objective of the COLLISION trial is to prove non-inferiority of thermal ablation compared to hepatic resection in patients with at least one resectable and ablatable CRLM and no extrahepatic disease.Methods: In this two-arm, single-blind multi-center phase-III clinical trial, six hundred and eighteen patients with at least one CRLM (≤3 cm) will be included to undergo either surgical resection or thermal ablation of appointed target lesion(s) (≤3 cm). Primary endpoint is OS (overall survival, intention-to-treat analysis). Main secondary endpoints are overall disease-free survival (DFS), time to progression (TTP), time to local progression (TTLP), primary and assisted technique efficacy (PTE, ATE), procedural morbidity and mortality, length of hospital stay, assessment of pain and quality of life (QoL), cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and quality-adjusted life years (QALY).Discussion: If thermal ablation proves to be non-inferior in treating lesions ≤3 cm, a switch in treatment-method may lead to a reduction of the post-procedural morbidity and mortality, length of hospital stay and incremental costs without compromising oncological outcome for patients with CRLM.Trial Registration: NCT03088150 , January 11th 2017. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Cytoreduction and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) improve the survival of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients with peritoneal metastases. Patient selection is key since this treatment is associated with high morbidity. Patients with peritoneal recurrence within 1 year after previous adjuvant chemotherapy are thought to benefit less from HIPEC treatment; however, no published data are available to assist in clinical decision making. This study assessed whether peritoneal recurrence within 1 year after adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with survival after HIPEC treatment.Methods: Peritoneal recurrence within 1 year after adjuvant chemotherapy, as well as other potentially prognostic clinical and pathological variables, were tested in univariate and multivariate analysis for correlation with primary outcomes, i.e. overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). Two prospectively collected databases from the VU University Medical Center Amsterdam and Catherina Hospital Eindhoven containing 345 CRC patients treated with the intent of HIPEC were utilized.Results: High Peritoneal Cancer Index (PCI) scores were associated with worse DFS [hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.08, p = 0.040] and OS (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.07-1.15, p < 0.001) in multivariate analysis. Furthermore, patients with peritoneal recurrence within 1 year following adjuvant chemotherapy had worse DFS (HR 2.13, 95% CI 1.26-3.61, p = 0.005) and OS (HR 2.76, 95% CI 1.45-5.27, p = 0.002) than patients who did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy or patients with peritoneal recurrence after 1 year.Conclusion: Peritoneal recurrence within 1 year after previous adjuvant chemotherapy, as well as high PCI scores, are associated with poor survival after cytoreduction and HIPEC. These factors should be considered in order to avoid high-morbidity treatment in patients who might not benefit from such treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) will fully roll‐out 2‐yearly screening using the immunochemical Faecal Occult Blood Testing (iFOBT) in people aged 50 to 74 years by 2020. In this study, we aimed to estimate the comparative health benefits, harms, and cost‐effectiveness of screening with iFOBT, versus other potential alternative or adjunctive technologies. A comprehensive validated microsimulation model, Policy1‐Bowel, was used to simulate a total of 13 screening approaches involving use of iFOBT, colonoscopy, sigmoidoscopy, computed tomographic colonography (CTC), faecal DNA (fDNA) and plasma DNA (pDNA), in people aged 50 to 74 years. All strategies were evaluated in three scenarios: (i) perfect adherence, (ii) high (but imperfect) adherence, and (iii) low adherence. When assuming perfect adherence, the most effective strategies involved using iFOBT (annually, or biennially with/without adjunct sigmoidoscopy either at 50, or at 54, 64 and 74 years for individuals with negative iFOBT), or colonoscopy (10‐yearly, or once‐off at 50 years combined with biennial iFOBT). Colorectal cancer incidence (mortality) reductions for these strategies were 51–67(74–80)% in comparison with no screening; 2‐yearly iFOBT screening (i.e. the NBCSP) would be associated with reductions of 51(74)%. Only 2‐yearly iFOBT screening was found to be cost‐effective in all scenarios in context of an indicative willingness‐to‐pay threshold of A$50,000/life‐year saved (LYS); this strategy was associated with an incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio of A$2,984/LYS–A$5,981/LYS (depending on adherence). The fully rolled‐out NBCSP is highly cost‐effective, and is also one of the most effective approaches for bowel cancer screening in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Meaning-centered group psychotherapy for cancer survivors (MCGP-CS) improves meaning, psychological well-being, and mental adjustment to cancer and reduces psychological distress. This randomized controlled trial was conducted to investigate the cost-utility of MCGP-CS compared with supportive group psychotherapy (SGP) and care-as-usual (CAU).Methods: In total, 170 patients were randomized to MCGP-CS, SGP, or CAU. Intervention costs, direct medical and nonmedical costs, productivity losses, and health-related quality of life were measured until 6 months follow-up, using the TIC-P, PRODISQ, data from the hospital information system, and the EQ-5D. The cost-utility was calculated by comparing mean cumulative costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs).Results: Mean total costs ranged from €4492 (MCGP-CS) to €5304 (CAU). Mean QALYs ranged .507 (CAU) to .540 (MCGP-CS). MCGP-CS had a probability of 74% to be both less costly and more effective than CAU, and 49% compared with SGP. Sensitivity analyses showed these findings are robust. If society is willing to pay €0 for one gained QALY, MCGP-CS has a 78% probability of being cost-effective compared with CAU. This increases to 85% and 92% at willingness-to-pay thresholds of €10 000 and €30 000, which are commonly accepted thresholds.Conclusions: MCGP-CS is highly likely a cost-effective intervention, meaning that there is a positive balance between the costs and gains of MCGP-CS, in comparison with SGP and CAU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Both the adenoma detection rate (ADR) and proximal serrated polyp detection rate (PSPDR) vary among endoscopists. It is unclear how these variations influence colorectal cancer (CRC) screening effectiveness. We evaluated the effect of variation in these detection rates on the long-term impact of fecal immunochemical test (FIT) based screening.Methods: The Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer (ASCCA) model was set up to simulate the Dutch national biennial FIT-based CRC screening program between 2014 and 2044. Adherence to FIT and colonoscopy was 73 and 92%. Besides a 'no screening scenario', several screening scenarios varying in ADR and PSPDR were evaluated. Using the available literature on colonoscopy miss rates led to a base-case ADR of 59% and PSPDR of 11%, which were varied with intervals of 3 and 2%.Results: Compared to no screening, FIT-screening in the base-case scenario reduced long-term mortality with 51.8%. At a fixed PSPDR of 11%, an increase in ADR from 44 to 62% would result in a 10.7% difference in mortality reduction. Using a fixed ADR of 59%, changing the PSPDR from 3 to 15% did not substantially influence long-term mortality (51.0 to 52.3%).Conclusions: An increase in ADR gradually reduces CRC burden in a FIT-based screening program, whereas an increase in PSPDR only minimally influences long-term outcomes at a population-level. The limited effect of the PSPDR can be explained by the limited sensitivity of FIT for serrated polyps (SPs). Other triage modalities aiming to detect relevant SPs should be explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The aim of this study is to investigate the associations between patient activation and total costs in cancer patients treated with total laryngectomy (TL).Methods: All members of the Dutch Patients' Association for Laryngectomees were asked to participate in this cross-sectional study. TL patients who wanted to participate were asked to complete a survey. Costs were measured using the medical consumption and productivity cost questionnaire and patient activation using the Patient Activation Measure (PAM). Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were self-reported, and health status measured using the EQ-5D. The difference in total costs from a healthcare and societal perspective among four groups with different PAM levels were compared using (multiple) regression analyses (5000 bootstrap replications).Results: In total, 248 TL patients participated. Patients with a higher (better) PAM (levels 2, 3, and 4) had a probability of 70, 80, and 93% that total costs from a healthcare perspective were lower than in patients with the lowest PAM level (difference €-375 to €-936). From a societal perspective, this was 73, 87, and 82% (difference €-468 to €-719). After adjustment for time since TL, education, and sex, the probability that total costs were lower in patients with a higher PAM level compared to patients with the lowest PAM level changed to 62-91% (healthcare) and 63-92% (societal). After additional adjustment for health status, the probability to be less costly changed to 35-71% (healthcare) and 31-48% (societal).Conclusions: A better patient activation is likely to be associated with lower total costs from a healthcare and societal perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims/hypothesis: Glycaemic markers and fasting insulin are frequently measured outcomes of intervention studies. To extrapolate accurately the impact of interventions on the risk of diabetes incidence, we investigated the size and shape of the associations of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2 h post-load glucose (2hPG), HbA, fasting insulin and HOMA-IR with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods: The study population included 1349 participants aged 50-75 years without diabetes at baseline (1989) from a population-based cohort in Hoorn, the Netherlands. Incident type 2 diabetes was defined by the WHO 2011 criteria or known diabetes at follow-up. Logistic regression models were used to determine the associations of the glycaemic markers, fasting insulin and HOMA-IR with incident type 2 diabetes. Restricted cubic spline logistic regressions were conducted to investigate the shape of the associations. Results: After a mean follow-up duration of 6.4 (SD 0.5) years, 152 participants developed diabetes (11.3%); the majority were screen detected by high FPG. In multivariate adjusted models, ORs (95% CI) for incident type 2 diabetes for the highest quintile in comparison with the lowest quintile were 9.0 (4.4, 18.5) for FPG, 6.1 (2.9, 12.7) for 2hPG, 3.8 (2.0, 7.2) for HbA, 1.9 (0.9, 3.6) for fasting insulin and 2.8 (1.4, 5.6) for HOMA-IR. The associations of FPG and HbA with incident diabetes were non-linear, rising more steeply at higher values. Conclusions/interpretation: FPG was most strongly associated with incident diabetes, followed by 2hPG, HbA, HOMA-IR and fasting insulin. The strong association with FPG is probably because FPG is the most frequent marker for diabetes diagnosis. Non-linearity of associations between glycaemic markers and incident type 2 diabetes should be taken into account when estimating future risk of type 2 diabetes based on glycaemic markers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The fecal immunochemical test (FIT) for detecting hemoglobin is used widely for noninvasive colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, but its sensitivity leaves room for improvement. Objective: To identify novel protein biomarkers in stool that outperform or complement hemoglobin in detecting CRC and advanced adenomas. Design: Case–control study. Setting: Colonoscopy-controlled referral population from several centers. Participants: 315 stool samples from one series of 12 patients with CRC and 10 persons without colorectal neoplasia (control samples) and a second series of 81 patients with CRC, 40 with advanced adenomas, and 43 with nonadvanced adenomas, as well as 129 persons without colorectal neoplasia (control samples); 72 FIT samples from a third independent series of 14 patients with CRC, 16 with advanced adenomas, and 18 with nonadvanced adenomas, as well as 24 persons without colorectal neoplasia (control samples). Measurements: Stool samples were analyzed by mass spectrometry. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis and logistic regression analyses were performed to identify protein combinations that differentiated CRC or advanced adenoma from control samples. Antibody-based assays for 4 selected proteins were done on FIT samples. Results: In total, 834 human proteins were identified, 29 of which were statistically significantly enriched in CRC versus control stool samples in both series. Combinations of 4 proteins reached sensitivities of 80% and 45% for detecting CRC and advanced adenomas, respectively, at 95% specificity, which was higher than that of hemoglobin alone (P < 0.001 and P = 0.003, respectively). Selected proteins could be measured in small sample volumes used in FIT-based screening programs and discriminated between CRC and control samples (P < 0.001). Limitation: Lack of availability of antibodies prohibited validation of the top protein combinations in FIT samples. Conclusion: Mass spectrometry of stool samples identified novel candidate protein biomarkers for CRC screening. Several protein combinations outperformed hemoglobin in discriminating CRC or advanced adenoma from control samples. Proof of concept that such proteins can be detected with antibody-based assays in small sample volumes indicates the potential of these biomarkers to be applied in population screening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Optimizing radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy through advanced imaging and accelerated radiation schemes shows promising results in locally advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study compared the cost-effectiveness of positron emission tomography-computed tomography based isotoxic accelerated sequential chemo-radiation (SRT2) and concurrent chemo-radiation with daily low-dose cisplatin (CRT2) with standard sequential (SRT1) and concurrent chemo-radiation (CRT1). Methods: We used an externally validated mathematical model to simulate the four treatment strategies. The model was built using data from 200 NSCLC patients treated with curative sequential chemo-radiation. For concurrent strategies, data from a meta-analysis and a single study were included in the model. Costs, utilities, and resource use estimates were obtained from literature. Primary outcomes were the incremental cost-effectiveness and cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of each strategy. Scenario analyses were carried out to investigate the impact of uncertainty. Results: Total undiscounted costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for SRT1, CRT1, SRT2, and CRT2 were EUR 17,288, EUR 18,756, EUR 19,072, EUR 17,360 and QALYs 1.10, 1.15, 1.40, and 1.40, respectively. Compared with SRT1, the ICURs were EUR 38,024/QALY for CRT1, EUR 6,249/QALY for SRT2, and EUR 346/QALY for CRT2. CRT2 was highly cost-effective compared with SRT1. Moreover, CRT2 was more effective and less costly than CRT1 and SRT2. Therefore, these strategies were dominated by CRT2. Conclusion: Optimized sequential and concurrent chemo-radiation strategies are more effective and cost-effective than the current conventional sequential and concurrent strategies. Concurrent chemo-radiation with a daily low dose cisplatin regimen is the most cost-effective treatment option for locally advanced inoperable NSCLC patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Uncomplicated Urinary Tract Infections (UTIs) are common in primary care resulting in substantial costs. Since antimicrobial resistance against antibiotics for UTIs is rising, accurate diagnosis is needed in settings with low rates of multidrug-resistant bacteria. Objective: To compare the cost-effectiveness of different strategies to diagnose UTIs in women who contacted their general practitioner (GP) with painful and/or frequent micturition between 2006 and 2008 in and around Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Methods: This is a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis using data from 196 women who underwent four tests: history, urine stick, sediment, dipslide, and the gold standard, a urine culture. Decision trees were constructed reflecting 15 diagnostic strategies comprising different parallel and sequential combinations of the four tests. Using the decision trees, for each strategy the costs and the proportion of women with a correct positive or negative diagnosis were estimated. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to estimate uncertainty surrounding costs and effects. Uncertainty was presented using cost-effectiveness planes and acceptability curves. Results: Most sequential testing strategies resulted in higher proportions of correctly classified women and lower costs than parallel testing strategies. For different willingness to pay thresholds, the most cost-effective strategies were: 1) performing a dipstick after a positive history for thresholds below €10 per additional correctly classified patient, 2) performing both a history and dipstick for thresholds between €10 and €17 per additional correctly classified patient, 3) performing a dipstick if history was negative, followed by a sediment if the dipstick was negative for thresholds between €17 and €118 per additional correctly classified patient, 4) performing a dipstick if history was negative, followed by a dipslide if the dipstick was negative for thresholds above €118 per additional correctly classified patient. Conclusion: Depending on decision makers’ willingness to pay for one additional correctly classified woman, the strategy consisting of performing a history and dipstick simultaneously (ceiling ratios between €10 and €17) or performing a sediment if history and subsequent dipstick are negative (ceiling ratios between €17 and €118) are the most cost-effective strategies to diagnose a UTI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Population-based screening to prevent colorectal cancer (CRC) death is effective, but the effectiveness of postpolypectomy surveillance is unclear.Objective: To evaluate the additional benefit in terms of cost-effectiveness of colonoscopy surveillance in a screening setting.Design: Microsimulation using the ASCCA (Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer) model.Data Sources: Dutch CRC screening program and published literature.Target Population: Asymptomatic persons aged 55 to 75 years without a prior CRC diagnosis.Time Horizon: Lifetime.Perspective: Health care payer.Intervention: Fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening with colonoscopy surveillance performed according to the Dutch guideline was simulated. The comparator was no screening or surveillance. FIT screening without colonoscopy surveillance and the effect of extending surveillance intervals were also evaluated.Outcome Measures: CRC burden, colonoscopy demand, life-years, and costs.Results of Base-case Analysis: FIT screening without surveillance reduced CRC mortality by 50.4% compared with no screening or surveillance. Adding surveillance to FIT screening reduced mortality by an additional 1.7% to 52.1% but increased lifetime colonoscopy demand by 62% (from 335 to 543 colonoscopies per 1000 persons) at an additional cost of €68 000, for an increase of 0.9 life-year. Extending the surveillance intervals to 5 years reduced CRC mortality by 51.8% and increased colonoscopy demand by 42.7% compared with FIT screening without surveillance. In an incremental analysis, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for screening plus surveillance exceeded the Dutch willingness-to-pay threshold of €36 602 per life-year gained.Results of Sensitivity Analysis: When using a parameter set representing low colorectal lesion prevalence or when colonoscopy costs were halved or colorectal lesion incidence was doubled, screening plus surveillance became cost-effective compared with screening without surveillance.Limitation: Limited data on FIT performance and background CRC risk in the surveillance population.Conclusion: Adding surveillance to FIT screening is not cost-effective based on the Dutch ICER threshold and substantially increases colonoscopy demand. Extending surveillance intervals to 5 years would decrease colonoscopy demand without substantial loss of effectiveness.Primary Funding Source: Alpe d'HuZes, Dutch Cancer Society, and Stand Up To Cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction Patient decision aids (PDAs) have been developed to help patients make an informed choice for a treatment option. Despite proven benefits, structural implementation falls short of expectations. The present study aims to assess the effectiveness and cost-utility of the PDA among newly diagnosed patients with localised prostate cancer and their partners, alongside implementation of the PDA in routine care. Methods/analysis A stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial will be conducted. The PDA will be sequentially implemented in 18 hospitals in the Netherlands, over a period of 24 months. Every 3 or 6 months, a new cluster of hospitals will switch from usual care to care including a PDA. The primary outcome measure is decisional conflict experienced by the patient. Secondary outcomes comprise the patient's quality of life, treatment preferences, role in the decision making, expectations of treatment, knowledge, need for supportive care and decision regret. Furthermore, societal cost-utility will be valued. Other outcome measures considered are the partner's treatment preferences, experienced participation to decision making, quality of life, communication between patient, partner and health care professional, and the effect of prostate cancer on the relationship, social contacts and their role as caregiver. Patients and partners receiving the PDA will also be asked about their satisfaction with the PDA. Baseline assessment takes place after the treatment choice and before the start of a treatment, with follow-up assessments at 3, 6 and 12 months following the end of treatment or the day after deciding on active surveillance. Outcome measures on implementation include the implementation rate (defined as the proportion of all eligible patients who will receive a PDA) and a questionnaire for health care professionals on determinants of implementing an innovation. Ethics and dissemination This study will be conducted in accordance with local laws and regulations of the Medical Ethics Committee of VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. The results from this stepped-wedge trial will be presented at scientific meetings and published in peer-reviewed journals. Trial registration Nederlands Trial Register NTR TC5177, registration date: May 28th 2015. Pre-results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cancer survivors have to deal with a wide range of physical symptoms, psychological, social and existential concerns, and lifestyle issues related to cancer and its treatment. Therefore, it is essential that they have access to optimal supportive care services. The eHealth self-management application Oncokompas was developed to support cancer survivors with where they need to turn to for advice and guidance, as well as to increase their knowledge on the availability of optimal support. A randomised controlled trial will be conducted to assess the efficacy, cost-utility and reach of Oncokompas as an eHealth self-management application compared with care as usual among cancer survivors.Methods/design: Adult cancer survivors diagnosed with breast, colorectal or head and neck cancer or lymphoma who are at 3 months to 5 years since curative treatment will be included. In total, 544 cancer survivors will be randomly assigned to the intervention group or a wait-list control group. The primary outcome measure is patient activation. Secondary outcome measures include self-efficacy, personal control, perceived patient-physician interaction, need for supportive care, mental adjustment to cancer and health-related quality of life. Furthermore, cost-utility outcomes will be assessed. Reach is defined as the percentage of cancer survivors who get access to Oncokompas within the context of this trial. Questionnaires will be administered at baseline, post-intervention and at 3- and 6-month follow-up.Discussion: In this study, we will evaluate the efficacy and cost-utility of Oncokompas among cancer survivors, as well as the reach of Oncokompas. These are essential first steps in the translation of research into practice and contribute to sustainable adoption, implementation and maintenance of an evidence-based Oncokompas.Trial Registration: Netherlands Trial Register identifier: NTR5774 . Registered on 8 March 2016. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Considerable variation exists in diagnostic tests used for local response evaluation after chemoradiation in patients with advanced oropharyngeal cancer. The yield of invasive examination under general anesthesia (EUA) with biopsies in all patients is low and it may induce substantial morbidity. We explored four response evaluation strategies to detect local residual disease in terms of diagnostic accuracy and cost-effectiveness.Methods: We built a decision-analytic model using trial data of forty-six patients and scientific literature. We estimated for four strategies the proportion of correct diagnoses, costs concerning diagnostic instruments and the proportion of unnecessary EUA indications. Besides a reference strategy, i.e. EUA for all patients, we considered three imaging strategies consisting of 18FDG-PET-CT, diffusion-weighted MRI (DW-MRI), or both 18FDG-PET-CT and DW-MRI followed by EUA after a positive test. The impact of uncertainty was assessed in sensitivity analyses.Results: The EUA strategy led to 96% correct diagnoses. Expected costs were €468 per patient whereas 89% of EUA indications were unnecessary. The DW-MRI strategy was the least costly strategy, but also led to the lowest proportion of correct diagnoses, i.e. 93%. The PET-CT strategy and combined imaging strategy were dominated by the EUA strategy due to respectively a smaller or equal proportion of correct diagnoses, at higher costs. However, the combination of PET-CT and DW-MRI had the highest sensitivity. All imaging strategies considerably reduced (unnecessary) EUA indications and its associated burden compared to the EUA strategy.Conclusions: Because the combined PET-CT and DW-MRI strategy costs only an additional €927 per patient, it is preferred over immediate EUA since it reaches the same diagnostic accuracy in detecting local residual disease while leading to substantially less unnecessary EUA indications. However, if healthcare resources are limited, DW-MRI is the strategy of choice because of lower costs while still providing a large reduction in unnecessary EUA indications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: As in many other European countries, a nationwide screening program for colorectal cancer (CRC) has recently been introduced in the Netherlands. As a side effect, such a screening program will inherently yield an increase in the demand for surveillance after removal of polyps/adenomas or CRC. Although these patients are at increased risk of metachronous colorectal neoplasia, solid evidence on CRC-related mortality reduction as a result of colonoscopy-based surveillance programs is lacking. Furthermore, colonoscopy-based surveillance leads to high patient burden, high logistic demands and high costs. Therefore, new surveillance strategies are needed. The aim of the present study, named Molecular stool testing for Colorectal CAncer Surveillance (MOCCAS), is to determine the performance characteristics of two established non-invasive tests, i.e., the multitarget stool DNA test Cologuard® and the faecal immunochemical test (FIT) in the detection of CRC and advanced adenomas as an alternative for colonoscopy surveillance.Methods: In this observational cross-sectional cohort study, subjects aged 50 to 75 years will be approached to collect (whole-) stool samples for molecular testing and a FIT prior to their scheduled surveillance colonoscopy. The results of the tests will allow calculation of test sensitivities and specificities in the context of surveillance. This will provide the required input for the Dutch ASCCA model (Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer) to simulate surveillance strategies differing in frequency and duration. The model will allow predictions of lifetime health effects and costs. Multiple centres in the Netherlands will participate in the study that aims to include 4,000 individuals.Discussion: The outcome of this study will inform on the (cost-) effectiveness of stool based molecular testing as an alternative for colonoscopy in the rapidly expanding surveillance population.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov ( https://clinicaltrials.gov/ ): NCT02715141 . Retrospectively registered 17 February 2016. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Optimizing radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy through advanced imaging and accelerated radiation schemes shows promising results in locally advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study compared the cost-effectiveness of positron emission tomography-computed tomography based isotoxic accelerated sequential chemo-radiation (SRT2) and concurrent chemo-radiation with daily low-dose cisplatin (CRT2) with standard sequential (SRT1) and concurrent chemo-radiation (CRT1).Methods: We used an externally validated mathematical model to simulate the four treatment strategies. The model was built using data from 200 NSCLC patients treated with curative sequential chemo-radiation. For concurrent strategies, data from a meta-analysis and a single study were included in the model. Costs, utilities, and resource use estimates were obtained from literature. Primary outcomes were the incremental cost-effectiveness and cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of each strategy. Scenario analyses were carried out to investigate the impact of uncertainty.Results: Total undiscounted costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for SRT1, CRT1, SRT2, and CRT2 were EUR 17,288, EUR 18,756, EUR 19,072, EUR 17,360 and QALYs 1.10, 1.15, 1.40, and 1.40, respectively. Compared with SRT1, the ICURs were EUR 38,024/QALY for CRT1, EUR 6,249/QALY for SRT2, and EUR 346/QALY for CRT2. CRT2 was highly cost-effective compared with SRT1. Moreover, CRT2 was more effective and less costly than CRT1 and SRT2. Therefore, these strategies were dominated by CRT2.Conclusion: Optimized sequential and concurrent chemo-radiation strategies are more effective and cost-effective than the current conventional sequential and concurrent strategies. Concurrent chemo-radiation with a daily low dose cisplatin regimen is the most cost-effective treatment option for locally advanced inoperable NSCLC patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Repeated participation is important in faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) screening for colorectal cancer (CRC). However, a large number of screening invitations over time may lead to screening fatigue and consequently, decreased participation rates. We evaluated the impact of screening fatigue on overall screening programme effectiveness. Methods: Using the ASCCA model, we simulated the Dutch CRC screening programme consisting of biennial FIT screening in individuals aged 55-75. We studied the resilience of the programme against heterogeneity in screening attendance and decrease in participation rate due to screening fatigue. Outcomes were reductions in CRC incidence and mortality compared to no screening. Results: Assuming a homogenous 63 % participation, i.e., each round each individual was equally likely to attend screening, 30 years of screening reduced CRC incidence and mortality by 39 and 53 %, respectively, compared to no screening. When assuming clustered participation, i.e., three subgroups of individuals with a high (95 %), moderate (65 %) and low (5 %) participation rate, screening was less effective; reductions were 33 % for CRC incidence and 43 % for CRC mortality. Screening fatigue considerably reduced screening effectiveness; if individuals refrained from screening after three negative screens, model-predicted incidence reductions decreased to 25 and 18 % under homogenous and clustered participation, respectively. Figures were 34 and 25 % for mortality reduction. Conclusions: Screening will substantially decrease CRC incidence and mortality. However, screening effectiveness can be seriously compromised if screening fatigue occurs. This warrants careful monitoring of individual screening behaviour and consideration of targeted invitation systems in individuals who have (repeatedly) missed screening rounds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Total laryngectomy with or without adjuvant (chemo)radiation often induces speech, swallowing and neck and shoulder problems. Speech, swallowing and shoulder exercises may prevent or diminish these problems. The aim of the present paper is to describe the study, which is designed to investigate the effectiveness and cost-utility of a guided self-help exercise program built into the application "In Tune without Cords" among patients treated with total laryngectomy.Methods/design: Patients, up to 5 years earlier treated with total laryngectomy with or without (chemo)radiation will be recruited for participation in this study. Patients willing to participate will be randomized to the intervention or control group (1:1). Patients in the intervention group will be provided access to a guided self-help exercise program and a self-care education program built into the application "In Tune without Cords". Patients in the control group will only be provided access to the self-care education program. The primary outcome is the difference in swallowing quality (SWAL-QOL) between the intervention and control group. Secondary outcome measures address speech problems (SHI), shoulder disability (SDQ), quality of life (EORTC QLQ-C30, QLQ-H&N35 and EQ-5D), direct and indirect costs (adjusted iMCQ and iPCQ measures) and self-management (PAM). Patients will be asked to complete these outcome measures at baseline, immediately after the intervention or control period (i.e. at 3 months follow-up) and at 6 months follow-up.Discussion: This randomized controlled trial will provide knowledge on the effectiveness of a guided self-help exercise program for patients treated with total laryngectomy. In addition, information on the value for money of such an exercise program will be provided. If this guided self-help program is (cost)effective for patients treated with total laryngectomy, the next step will be to implement this exercise program in current clinical practice.Trial Registration: NTR5255 Protocol version 4 date September 2015. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Imaging may be promising for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, since it has test characteristics comparable with colonoscopy but is less invasive. We aimed to assess the potential of CT colonography (CTC) and MR colonography (MRC) in terms of (cost-effectiveness) using the Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer model. Methods: We compared several CTC and MRC strategies with 5- or 10-yearly screening intervals with no screening, 10-yearly colonoscopy screening and biennial faecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening. We assumed trial-based participation rates in the base-case analyses and varied the rates in sensitivity analyses. Incremental lifetime costs and health effects were estimated from a healthcare perspective. Results: The health gain of CTC and MRC was similar and ranged from 0.031 to 0.048 life-year gained compared with no screening, for 2-5 screening rounds. Lifetime costs per person for MRC strategies were €60-110 higher than those for CTC strategies with an equal number of screening rounds. All imaging-based strategies were cost-effective compared with no screening. FIT screening was the dominant screening strategy, leading to most LYG and highest cost-savings. Compared with three rounds of colonoscopy screening, CTC with five rounds was found to be cost-effective in an incremental analysis of imaging strategies. Assumptions on screening participation have a major influence on the ordering of strategies in terms of costs and effects. Conclusion: CTC and MRC have potential for CRC screening, compared with no screening and compared with three rounds of 10-yearly colonoscopy screening. When taking FIT screening as the reference, imaging is not cost-effective. Participation is an important driver of effectiveness and cost estimates. Advances in knowledge: This is the first study to assess the cost-effectiveness of MRC screening for CRC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]