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The COVID-19 pandemic has caused extensive disruption to economies and societies across the world. In terms of demographic processes, mortality has risen in many countries, international migration and mobility has been widely curtailed, and rising unemployment and job insecurity is expected to lower fertility rates in the near future. This paper attempts to examine the possible effects of COVID-19 on Australia's demography over the next two decades, focusing in particular on population ageing. Several population projections were prepared for the period 2019–41. We formulated three scenarios in which the pandemic has a short-lived impact of 2–3 years, a moderate impact lasting about 5 years, or a severe impact lasting up to a decade. We also created two hypothetical scenarios, one of which illustrates Australia's demographic future in the absence of a pandemic for comparative purposes, and another which demonstrates the demographic consequences if Australia had experienced excess mortality equivalent to that recorded in the first half of 2020 in England & Wales. Our projections show that the pandemic will probably have little impact on numerical population ageing but a moderate effect on structural ageing. Had Australia experienced the high mortality observed in England & Wales there would have been 19,400 excess deaths. We caution that considerable uncertainty surrounds the future trajectory of COVID-19 and therefore the demographic responses to it. The pandemic will need to be monitored closely and projection scenarios updated accordingly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic there has been interest in the migration of city-dwellers to regional areas to escape lockdowns and movement restrictions, yet evidence of a 'regional renaissance' in Australia remains anecdotal. This paper aims to quantify the current and future dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic on the levels, patterns and drivers of migration to and from Australian cities and regions. Results show a 7% drop in the rate of migration between Greater Capital City Statistical Areas in 2020 compared to the previous year, with record net gains in regional areas facilitated by a 9% decrease in departures rather than an increase in arrivals from cities. Our forecasts suggest that net gains to regions will slow down after 2022, but remain higher than pre-pandemic levels in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, and Tasmania because of a sustained increase in arrivals. Regional Western Australia and the Northern Territory will continue to record net losses, while net gains to regional Victoria are predicted to be lower than pre-COVID-19 because of an increase in departures. These patterns have important implications for population projections and policies regarding the attraction and retention of internal migrants to Australia's regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The last few decades have seen the intensity of internal migration decline in Australia and other advanced economies including the United States. Recent evidence suggests that changes in the composition of the population alone do not account for this persistent downward trend. This has led migration scholars to suspect that more profound behavioural changes driven by social, economic, and technological transformations are at play and that shifts in migration behaviour are likely to be reflected in changes in reasons for migration. We use data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey to shed new light on the factors driving the decline in internal migration in Australia between 2002 and 2018. This is done by examining annual trends in self-reported reasons for intrastate and interstate migration and applying a series of pooled logistic regressions. Results reveal a decline across all reasons for migration, and not only employment-related migration contrary to explanations proposed in the extant literature. The decline in employment-related migration does not appear to be the result of a rise in alternative forms of mobility such as teleworking or substitution with inter-industry or occupation mobility. Furthermore, we also find that the negative effect of duration of residence has increased for family-related migration. Collectively, these findings suggest that behavioural change, particularly increased place attachment, may have contributed to the decline in internal migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the role of human capital in explaining divergent employment growth within advanced economies. It adds a spatial dimension to William J. Baumol's theory of 'unbalanced growth' by linking it with the concept of 'job polarization'. We develop a theory of 'geographical unbalanced growth' that explains divergent employment trajectories in terms of skill restructuring. The theory is operationalized via a novel shift–share extension, which is applied to Australian data. We find evidence of ongoing regional divergence and for our proposed mechanism. The findings reinforce the importance of active policies to attract high-skilled jobs to non-metropolitan regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia is one of the most migratory countries in the world, yet as internal migrants typically represent only a small proportion of the population, the impact of stayers and transient populations need to be considered to create a fuller picture of regional population dynamics. To that end, this paper analyses net migration, population turnover, and population retention for 69 Australian regions from 1976 to 2016. Applying sequence analysis to a temporally-consistent framework, we find that regions follow four ideal-typical trajectories: 1) escalator regions with transient populations, 2) amenity destinations with fading attractiveness, 3) regions at risk of terminal decline, and 4) sticky regions. This classification in part follows the urban hierarchy while unveiling some important regional differences, highlighting the utility of the long-term multi-dimensional framework developed in this paper. This approach offers policymakers a new capacity to measure and monitor changes in internal migration and population dynamics to design and deploy more targeted regional policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study establishes a new method for estimating the monthly Average Population Present (APP) in Australian regions. Conventional population statistics, which enumerate people where they usually live, ignore the significant spatial mobility driving short term shifts in population numbers. Estimates of the temporary or ambient population of a region have several important applications including the provision of goods and services, emergency preparedness and serve as more appropriate denominators for a range of social statistics. This paper develops a flexible modelling framework to generate APP estimates from an integrated suite of conventional and novel data sources. The resultant APP estimates reveal the considerable seasonality in small area populations across Australia's regions alongside the contribution of domestic and international visitors as well as absent residents to the observed monthly variations. The modelling framework developed in the paper is conceived in a manner such that it can be adapted and re-deployed both for use with alternative data sources as well as other situational contexts for the estimation of temporary populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Levels of internal migration have declined since the 1980s in many advanced economies. Australian studies remain largely descriptive, making it difficult to ascertain the extent to which the decline in aggregate levels of migration is due to shifts in the socio‐demographic composition of the Australian population or driven by deeper behavioural changes. This paper aims to address this gap by applying an Oaxaca‐Blinder decomposition method to individual‐level data from the 2001 and 2016 censuses. Our results confirm the strong impact of population ageing on the decline in migration although its effect has been fully counteracted by other compositional changes such as education and immigration. We find behavioural effects to be the principal factor explaining this downward trend. This finding points to a secular shift in migration behaviour and represents a starting point in developing a more comprehensive understanding of the factors underpinning the long‐term decline in internal migration in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the utility of information and communication technologies data for the measurement of visitation dynamics in third places across a large metropolitan university campus. A suite of seven metrics encompassing intensity, popularity, capacity, tempo, dwell, churn, and periodicity are employed to describe the visitation dynamics of each third place. Findings suggest that despite overt functional similarities, significant variability exists in the visitation dynamics of third places. Increasing pervasiveness of Wi-Fi networks in public spaces will improve the utility of social sensing data in recording the spatial and temporal dynamics of visitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: COVID-19 is an emergent infectious disease that has spread geographically to become a global pandemic. While much research focuses on the epidemiological and virological aspects of COVID-19 transmission, there remains an important gap in knowledge regarding the drivers of geographical diffusion between places, in particular at the global scale. Here, we use quantile regression to model the roles of globalisation, human settlement and population characteristics as socio-spatial determinants of reported COVID-19 diffusion over a six-week period in March and April 2020. Our exploratory analysis is based on reported COVID-19 data published by Johns Hopkins University which, despite its limitations, serves as the best repository of reported COVID-19 cases across nations.Results: The quantile regression model suggests that globalisation, settlement, and population characteristics related to high human mobility and interaction predict reported disease diffusion. Human development level (HDI) and total population predict COVID-19 diffusion in countries with a high number of total reported cases (per million) whereas larger household size, older populations, and globalisation tied to human interaction predict COVID-19 diffusion in countries with a low number of total reported cases (per million). Population density, and population characteristics such as total population, older populations, and household size are strong predictors in early weeks but have a muted impact over time on reported COVID-19 diffusion. In contrast, the impacts of interpersonal and trade globalisation are enhanced over time, indicating that human mobility may best explain sustained disease diffusion.Conclusions: Model results confirm that globalisation, settlement and population characteristics, and variables tied to high human mobility lead to greater reported disease diffusion. These outcomes serve to inform suppression strategies, particularly as they are related to anticipated relocation diffusion from more- to less-developed countries and regions, and hierarchical diffusion from countries with higher population and density. It is likely that many of these processes are replicated at smaller geographical scales both within countries and within regions. Epidemiological strategies must therefore be tailored according to human mobility patterns, as well as countries' settlement and population characteristics. We suggest that limiting human mobility to the greatest extent practical will best restrain COVID-19 diffusion, which in the absence of widespread vaccination may be one of the best lines of epidemiological defense. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While there is a large volume of research discussing the role of internal migration in the transformation of the Brazilian national settlement system, past studies have shown conflicting tendencies towards population concentration and dispersion. This paper analyses the evolution of the spatial networks formed by migration flows and the changes in the direction of these flows since the 1980s. Network analysis methods proved to be a valuable tool to determine the degree of concentration in the Brazilian migration system, examine the overall changes in the topology or shape of the migration network and study its spatial manifestations over time. Results indicate a highly concentrated migration system (notably polarised by the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo) but also evidence of a multiplication of both places of migration origin and destination, increasing connectivity and reciprocity of flows, although the pace of these changes seems to be slowing down. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The estimation of temporary populations is a well-established field, but despite growing interest they are yet to form part of the standard suite of official population statistics. This systematic review seeks to review the empirical literature on temporary population estimation and identify the contemporary "state of the art". We identify a total of 96 studies that attempt to estimate or describe a method of estimation. Our findings reveal strong growth in the number of studies in recent decades that in part has been driven by the rise in both the type and availability of new sources of information, including mobile phone data. What emerges from this systematic review is the lack of any "gold standard" data source or methodology for temporary population estimation. The review points to a number of important challenges that remain for estimating temporary populations, both conceptually and practically. What remains is the need for clear definitions along with identification of appropriate data and methods that are able to robustly capture and measure the diverse array of spatial behaviours that drive temporary population dynamics. To our knowledge, this is the first review on this topic that brings together literature from various disciplines and collates methods used for estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is considerable demand for official statistics on temporary populations to supplement statistics on resident and working populations. Progress has been slow, with temporary population statistics not part of the standard suite of measures produced by national statistical offices. This article adopts the framework for official statistics proposed by Raymer and colleagues as a guide to aspects relating to society, concepts, data, processing, outputs and validation. The article proposes a conceptual framework linking temporary population mobility, defined as a move more than one night in duration that does not entail a change in usual residence, and temporary populations. Using Australia as an example, we discuss various dimensions of temporary mobility that complicate its measurement. We then report the outcomes of a survey of user needs for temporary population statistics along with a desktop review of OECD countries to identify the best formulation of temporary population statistics, and current international practice respectively. The article concludes by proposing two related concepts for temporary populations: population present and person-time, which overcome a number of issues currently impeding progress in this area and discuss their potential implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Internal migration, the movement of people between localities and regions within a country, has resulted in a significant redistribution of national populations. Past cross-national studies have been impeded by a lack of data and comparable metrics upon which to base comparisons. This paper examines internal migration in 30 Asian countries utilising a global dataset and a novel suite of measures devised in the IMAGE project. Three aspects of internal migration are explored: overall intensity, age patterns, and spatial impacts. Comparisons reveal that internal migration intensities, while on average lower than in other regions, are highly variable across countries. Migration peaks at earlier ages and is concentrated into a narrower age band than in other parts of the world. Analysis of spatial impacts highlights the contribution of migration to urbanisation, but a comparison of current trends against lifetime migration data also reveals the impact of historical events and government policies on national migration systems. Wide variation in key dimensions of migration among Asian countries reflects a diversity in national circumstances. The way forward lies in further in-depth country studies building on the common analytic framework articulated in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling of internal migration to new cities is challenging, yet necessary to ensure that these newly established urban areas will be populated and function as intended. In the State of Kuwait, there is a unique set of push and pull factors: government subsidised housing for citizens, the existence of a single urban area, and the initiation of a new and ambitious master plan for the construction of 12 new cities, which are expected to attract not only locals, but also international residents and businesses. On top of these factors, there is an unusual demographic situation, as non-citizens outnumber Kuwaiti citizens by a factor of 2.3, with these groups having widely different preferences in terms of housing. Currently, there is no plan to take these resident groups’ opinions into consideration for the new cities project. Besides, the current study simulates the impacts of the involvement of residents in urban planning. Samples from resident groups (citizens and non-citizens) participated in targeted surveys and useful answers were extracted in relation to the migration likelihood, push and pull factors that may affect their decisions, spatial preferences for new cities and their opinions on segregation by nationality. Specifically, the survey results showed significant interest of residents in moving to the new cities. For citizens, the most important factors in deciding whether to move or not were proximity to their close family and housing availability, while for non-citizens the most important factor was the creation of new employment opportunities. Both survey groups agreed that existing city property prices are too high and make the prospect of moving to a new city more attractive. The responses were transferred in an Agent Based Model, and the simulations showed certain differences to the official projections for 2050 without the public responses, in regards to the geographical distribution of the most desirable suburbs. Furthermore, the simulations showed that in the new cities, nationality segregation levels are expected to drop by at least 15% compared to the 2015 levels. The findings may be utilised by the authorities to modify the master plan accordingly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides commentary on the changing nature of the geography PhD. Taking as a point of departure Rae Dufty‐Jones's article on the career aspirations and expectations of geography doctoral students published in this journal earlier this year, we frame the paper around a series of propositions that prospective higher degree candidates may find useful. We buttress Dufty‐Jones's argument with numerical evidence that the "supply" of Australian PhDs outstrips "demand" by any reasonable measure. This evidence brings to light the question of whether a PhD in geography is meant to serve its traditional function as a threshold for an academic career and whether those pursuing non‐academic pathways should invest their time and effort in what may have become a "gladiatorial" pursuit. While the challenges facing PhD candidates are not insurmountable, they are not trivial. To optimise the experience and outcomes of a PhD, the needs and aspirations of candidates must be balanced, therefore, against the levels of support provided by universities. Candidates thus need to understand how such professional and personal aspirations fit in the contemporary higher education landscape and to appreciate what value a PhD holds—both to the individual and to society more broadly. We suggest two solutions to the pessimism of neoliberalisation and "massification": greater emphasis on a terminal master's degree in geography and insistence that geographers promote disciplinary visibility to the greatest extent possible, with the hope that geographical approaches to problem‐solving are increasingly recognised across industry and government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia's population is transitioning from traditional family homes to communal living, in either house sharing, institutionally provided housing or, as part of Intentional Community Living Arrangements (ICLAs). Between 2001 and 2016 there was a 42.2% increase to almost five million people living communally. This paper investigates communal living in Australia using data from the 2006, 2011 and 2016 Censuses and introduces ICLAs: group dwellings characterised by five or more unrelated individuals who intentionally combine their efforts in a self-governed manner and share aspects of living for collective community benefit. Unlike other forms of communal housing, ICLAs are not identified in the Census. To address this deficit, the paper draws upon ICLA association websites and online questionnaire responses to estimate a resident population of 25,000 members across 1700 communities. Growing public awareness of the benefits of communal living is likely to place pressure upon planners to facilitate a range of communal housing types. ICLAs have a number of attributes that make them a sustainable form of collaborative, communal housing. The adoption of the ICLA model will, however, require a shift in attitudes among planners and changes to planning regulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first decades of the new millennium have seen a dramatic increase in the level of net overseas migration to Australia. This has been accompanied by growing diversity in the origins of migrants away from the traditional source countries in Northern and Western Europe towards Asia. One result of this trend is an increasingly complex settlement geography. This Regional Graphic paper seeks to represent Australia’s immigrant geography by mapping the largest overseas-born population for regions of Australia using recently released 2016 Census data. The maps reveal a strong regionalization in migrant populations. Patterns reflect the concentration of some smaller migrant groups (e.g., Former Yugoslav Region (FYR) of Macedonia), while larger migrant groups (e.g., the UK) are more dispersed across the continent. Climate and geographical proximity to immigrants’ country of origin are possible factors driving the observed broad-level geographical variation in settlement. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

It is widely recognised that environmental events may trigger permanent and seasonal migration but less attention has been given to the way they shape the everyday mobility that shapes household livelihood strategies. This dearth of attention can be traced to a lack of statistical data, the difficulties of collecting information on local space-time trajectories and the absence of sound statistical measures by which to express them. We review prior work on the migration-environment nexus and trace the development of methods that aim to capture and measure temporary population movement. We identify nine discrete dimensions of mobility and introduce the Mobility in Space and Time among Individuals and Communities (MISTIC) toolkit that is designed to capture the spatio-temporal patterns of household everyday mobility using a flexible, participant centred approach that facilitates data recording and subsequent analysis. We illustrate application of the toolkit using data from 90 smallholder, subsistence households in semi-arid rural Northeast Brazil. The empirical evidence reveals systematic changes in the frequency and duration of both production and consumption-related movements in response to the 2010-2013 drought. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We know that internal migration shapes human settlement patterns, but few attempts have been made to measure systematically the extent of population redistribution or make comparisons between countries. Robust comparisons are hampered by limited data access, different space-time frameworks, and inadequate summary statistics. We use new analysis software (IMAGE Studio) to assess the effects of differences in the number and configuration of geographic zones and implement new measures to make comparisons across a large sample of countries, representing 80% of global population. We construct a new Index of Net Migration Impact to measure system-wide population redistribution and examine the relative contributions of migration intensity and effectiveness to cross-national variations. We compare spatial patterns using the slope of a regression between migration and population density across zones in each country to indicate the direction and pace of population concentration. We report correlations between measures of population redistribution and national development and propose a general theoretical model suggesting how internal migration redistributes population across settlement systems during the development process. Copyright © 2016 The Authors Population, Space and Place Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While considerable progress has been made in understanding the way particular aspects of internal migration, such as its intensity, age profile and spatial impact, vary between countries around the world, little attention to date has been given to establishing how these dimensions of migration interact in different national settings. We use recently developed measures of internal migration that are scale-independent to compare the overall intensity, age composition, spatial impact, and distance profile of internal migration in 19 Latin American countries. Comparisons reveal substantial cross-national variation but cluster analysis suggests the different dimensions of migration evolve systematically to form a broad sequence characterised by low intensities, young ages at migration, unbalanced flows and high friction of distance at lower levels of development, trending to high intensities, an older age profile of migration, more closely balanced flows and lower friction of distance at later stages of development. However, the transition is not linear and local contingencies, such as international migration and political control, often distort the migration-development nexus, leading to unique migration patterns in individual national contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Life-course transitions are important drivers of mobility, resulting in a concentration of migration at young adult ages. While there is increasing evidence of cross-national variations in the ages at which young adults move, the relative importance of various key life-course transitions in shaping these differences remains poorly understood. Prior studies typically focus on a single country and examine the influence of a single transition on migration, independently from other life-course events. To better understand the determinants of cross-national variations in migration ages, this paper analyses for Australia and Great Britain the joint influence of five key life-course transitions on migration: (1) higher education entry, (2) labour force entry, (3) partnering, (4) marriage and (5) family formation. We first characterise the age profile of short- and long-distance migration and the age profile of life-course transitions. We then use event-history analysis to establish the relative importance of each life-course transitions on migration. Our results show that the age structure and the relative importance of life-course transitions vary across countries, shaping differences in migration age patterns. In Great Britain, the strong association of migration with multiple transitions explains the concentration of migration at young adult ages, which is further amplified by the age-concentration and alignment of multiple transitions at similar ages. By contrast in Australia a weaker influence of life-course transitions on migration, combined with a dispersion of entry into higher education across a wide age range, contribute to a protracted migration age profile. Comparison by distance moved reveals further differences in the mix of transitions driving migration in each country, confirming the impact of the life-course in shaping migration age patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migration is the principal demographic process shaping patterns of human settlement, and it serves an essential role in human development. While progress has been made in measuring international migration, internal migration statistics are as yet poorly developed in many countries. This article draws on a repository of data established under the IMAGE (Internal Migration Around the GlobE) project to address this deficit by constructing the first comprehensive league table of internal migration intensities for countries around the world. We review previous work, outline the major impediments to making reliable comparisons, and set out a methodology that combines a novel estimation procedure with a flexible spatial aggregation facility. We present the results in the form of league tables of aggregate crude migration intensities that capture all changes of address over one-year or five-year intervals for 96 countries, representing four-fifths of the global population. Explanation for the observed differences has been sought, inter alia, in historical, structural, cultural, and economic forces. We examine the links between development and migration intensity through simple correlations using a range of demographic, economic, and social variables. Results reveal clear associations between internal migration intensities and selected indicators of national development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Seasonality is integral to many forms of temporary population mobility. To date, however, most research has focused on tourist movements and has been primarily concerned with its impacts on destinations. Less attention has been given to tracing its effects on the localities from which tourists are drawn or to understanding the spatial dynamics that underpin this periodic flux in population. The fact that tourism accounts for a minority of all temporary movements also supports the case for a broader analytical perspective. We aim to redress this neglect by examining seasonal variation in various forms of temporary movement across 77 regions of Australia over the decade 2000-2010, focusing on both origins and destinations. Coupling seasonal factors with cluster analysis and fixed effects models, we show that seasonal mobility across the Australian settlement system is highly structured with spatio-temporal variations reflecting the interplay of climatic variability with institutional constraints and the functional characteristics of regions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compared with other demographic processes, little attention has been given to the way levels and patterns of internal migration vary around the world. This can be traced in part to the absence of any central repository of internal migration data, but it also reflects widespread variation in the ways migration is measured. If robust, reliable comparisons between countries are to be made, a clear understanding of the available data is an essential pre-requisite. This paper reports results from the Internal Migration Around the GlobE project, which established an inventory of internal migration data collections for the 193 UN member States, identifying, inter alia, the types of data collected, the intervals over which it is measured and the spatial frameworks employed. Results reveal substantial diversity in data collection practice. We assess the strengths, limitations, and utility of the six principle ways migration is measured and examine their capacity to address key questions and issues in the field. We also identify avenues for harmonisation and conclude with recommendations which aim to facilitate cross-national comparisons. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fieldwork has long been fundamental to human geography; however, increasingly unreceptive institutional environments have led to a decline in fieldwork in undergraduate human geography programs. We argue that mobility research presents an opportunity to reinvigorate the undergraduate field trip in human geography. We report on a second-year field course to Noosa, Australia, that blends new technologies with conventional survey techniques to capture data on a spectrum of human spatial behaviour. Over the course of a single weekend, students collect GPS traces of tourist mobility, survey businesses on the journey to work, collect residential migration histories and trace population dynamics on Noosa beach. Over the three years the course has been running, students have constructed a large repository of data on this Australian mobility hotspot, of which we report highlights. Results from standardised student course evaluations confirm the pedagogical value of these initiatives for human geography undergraduates. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We develop and demonstrate the application of a concise set of measures intended to encapsulate key features of the age profile of internal migration and highlight the significant differences that exist between nations in these profiles. Model schedules have been the most common method of comparing internal migration patterns but issues related to the estimation and interpretation of their parameters hinder their use for cross-national comparison. We demonstrate that the interpretation of exponential coefficients as rates of ascent and descent does not best reflect the slopes of migration age profiles, and we propose more consistent measures based on the rate of change in migration intensity. We demonstrate, through correlation and factor analysis, that most of the inter-country variance in migration age profiles is captured by the age at and intensity of peak migration. The application of these two indicators to 25 countries reveals significant differences between regions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Despite underlying regularities in the age profile of migration, there is mounting evidence of cross-national variations in the ages at which migration occurs. Explanations for these differences have variously been sought by reference to cultural, social, and economic factors, and through analysis of reasons for moving. There is also a growing body of work linking migration events to particular transitions in the life course. We set out a conceptual framework that links contextual factors to the age structure of migration through life-course transitions that act as proximate determinants of the age at migration. We propose metrics to capture the prevalence, timing, and spread of four key life-course transitions: education completion, labor force entry, union formation, and first childbearing. We then seek to quantitatively establish the link between these indicators and the age and intensity of internal migration at its peak for a global sample of 27 countries. Correlation and factor analysis reveal substantial diversity in the timing and spread of transitions to adult roles, and show that cross-national differences in the age profile of migration closely parallel variations in the age structure of the life course for over two-thirds of countries. Migration age profiles are aligned with transitions to adulthood for both sexes but most strongly among women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional population estimates prepared by statistical agencies typically focus on the population resident in a given geographic area at a defined point in time, but in practice many locations undergo substantial daily, weekly and seasonal flux in population numbers. Such fluctuations exert wide-ranging impacts for goods and services in destination areas, such that increasing recognition is being given to the need for more refined estimates that capture these 'service populations'. While a number of methods have been proposed to count visitors or estimate temporary populations, systematic testing has been limited, and the evidence suggests that no single methodology is effective at multiple spatial and temporal scales. This paper utilises a hybrid approach which couples cordon counts based on multiple technologies with administrative data and an on-line survey to estimate the daily, weekly and seasonal fluctuation in the population of a large Australian metropolitan University campus. Our results trace the rise and fall of the campus population over the course of the day, identify the scale and duration of the peak, and show how population numbers vary from day to day and over the course of the teaching semester. We track aggregate flows to and from Campus by mode of travel and find they significantly exceed the on-campus population peak, underlining its sensitivity to timetabling of classes and other events. We also identify strong correlations between data sources which assist in validating the estimates and, together with evolving technologies, offer potential avenues for substantial cost saving in future estimations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of future population are essential for planning in both the public and private sectors but conventional approaches provide little guidance as to the uncertainties associated with published projections. Moreover, history suggests that forecasters are generally slow in responding to new trends in key demographic processes. These limitations come into sharp relief at times of high public interest, such as occasioned by the unprecedented increase in Australia's net overseas migration over the past decade. How reliable is the recent upwards revision which raises Australia's projected population from 28 million to 35 million by mid-century? If projections are to be of more value to users, progress is required on two fronts: (i) more effective processes for setting assumptions, and (ii) greater clarity as to the uncertainty of the resulting projections. We address these challenges by combining a more systematic, theoretically guided approach to the formulation of projection assumptions using a structured questionnaire to elicit the views of experts on the future of net overseas migration to Australia, and harness the results in a new, probabilistic projection framework which explicitly identifies confidence intervals within which Australia's future population growth is likely to fall. We present probabilistic projections for Australia from 2010 to 2051 and compare the results with the 2006-based Australian Bureau of Statistics projections. We show how forecast uncertainty grows, and how it varies between demographic variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1981, the population of South East Queensland stood at 1.5 million. Today, the region is home to twice that number, and over the last few years has been increasing in population by an average of 2.7%, or 80,000, per year. Concern about high population growth and its implications for housing affordability, transport, water supply and the environment have recently led some commentators to call for reduced population growth, or even a population cap. This paper examines key characteristics of South East Queensland's population and household trends and presents several scenarios, both plausible and implausible, for their future development. In addition to conventional high and low scenarios, we explore the demographic implications of capping population at current levels. Consequences range from rapid growth (7.4 million by mid-century) to severe ageing. We also show that household growth continues even under conditions of zero population growth. Our results demonstrate that population dynamics involve substantial inertia, with little scope for policy to influence outcomes in the short term. Realistically, planners should be preparing for sustained population growth in South East Queensland with continued population ageing, and large increases in the number of lone person and couple households without children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migration research in Australia has tended to focus on internal migration, partly due to the paucity of international migration statistics at the regional scale, especially for emigration. In this regional graphic, internal and international migration flows for 50 major regions of Australia are presented using census data on internal migration and immigration over the one-year interval before the 2011 Census together with new estimates of regional emigration. Because of the difficulties of mapping migration flows for a country with huge variations in the geographical size of regions, a new visualization tool - the circular migration plot - is employed. It enables a more complete, and more interpretable, summary picture of the spatial pattern of internal and international migration in Australia to be depicted than has been possible previously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]