Search

For more than a century, observations of cloudbursts have contributed to understanding physical processes producing "the sudden heavy fall of rain" – the American Meteorological Society definition of a cloudburst. Keen observers of cloudbursts include pioneers in the hydrological sciences, notably Robert Horton, G.K. Gilbert, Luna Leopold and John Hack. Horton transformed early 20th century understanding of cloudbursts into a conceptual model of thunderstorms that provided the foundation for his conclusion that "there is a natural limitation to rain intensity for any duration." The notion of bounds on rainfall and flood peaks has been ingrained in the philosophy of engineering design for high-hazard dams. The evolution of ideas linking cloudburst rainfall to the properties of short-duration rainfall extremes is examined in this paper through the lens of Robert Horton's cloudburst research, which provides useful insights to 21st century problems tied to cloudbursts and extreme, short-duration rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall frequency analysis methods are developed and implemented based on high‐resolution radar rainfall data sets, with the Baltimore metropolitan area serving as the principal study region. Analyses focus on spatial heterogeneities and time trends in sub‐daily rainfall extremes. The 22‐year radar rainfall data set for the Baltimore study region combines reflectivity‐based rainfall fields during the period from 2000 to 2011 and polarimetric rainfall fields for the period from 2012 to 2021. Rainfall frequency analyses are based on non‐stationary formulations of peaks‐over‐threshold and annual peak methods. Increasing trends in short‐duration rainfall extremes are inferred from both peaks‐over‐threshold and annual peak analyses for the period from 2000 to 2021. There are pronounced spatial gradients in short‐duration rainfall extremes over the study region, with peak values of rainfall between Baltimore City and Chesapeake Bay. Spatial gradients in 100‐year, 1 hr rainfall over 20 km length scale are comparable to time trends over 20 years. Rainfall analyses address the broad challenge of assessing changing properties of short‐duration rainfall in urban regions. Analyses of high‐resolution rainfall fields show that sub‐daily rainfall extremes are only weakly related to daily extremes, pointing to difficulties in inferring climatological properties of sub‐daily rainfall from daily rainfall analyses. Changing measurement properties are a key challenge for application of radar rainfall data sets to detection of time trends. Mean field bias correction of radar rainfall fields using rain gauge observations is an important tool for improving radar rainfall fields and provides a useful tool for addressing problems associated with changing radar measurement properties. Key Points: Rainfall frequency analysis tools based on long‐term, high‐resolution radar rainfall fields are developedSub‐daily rainfall extremes for the Baltimore study region exhibit increasing trends over 22‐year period of recordSub‐daily rainfall extremes exhibited pronounced spatial heterogeneities over the Baltimore study region [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 1 September 2021, the remnants of Hurricane Ida transformed into a lethal variant of tropical cyclone in which unprecedented short‐duration rainfall from clusters of supercells produced catastrophic flooding in watersheds of the Northeastern US. Short‐duration rainfall extremes from Ida are examined through analyses of polarimetric radar fields and rain gauge observations. Rainfall estimates are constructed from a polarimetric rainfall algorithm that is grounded in specific differential phase shift (KDP) fields. Rainfall accumulations at multiple locations exceed 1000‐year values for 1–3 hr time scales. Radar observations show that supercells are the principal agents of rainfall extremes. Record flood peaks occurred throughout the eastern Pennsylvania—New Jersey region; the peak discharge of the Elizabeth River is one of the most extreme in the eastern US, based on the ratio of the peak discharge to the sample 10‐year flood at the gaging station. As with other tropical cyclones that have produced record flooding in the Northeastern US, Extratropical Transition was a key element of extreme rainfall and flooding from Ida. Tropical and extratropical elements of the storm system contributed to extremes of atmospheric water balance variables and Convective Available Potential Energy, providing the environment for extreme short‐duration rainfall from supercells. Key Points: Remnants of Hurricane Ida produced unprecedented short‐duration rainfall extremes at 1–3 hr time scaleSupercells were the principal agents of extreme rainfall and floodingExtratropical Transition of Ida contributed to the environment of record short‐duration rainfall [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine polarimetric rainfall estimates of extreme rainfall through intercomparisons of radar rainfall estimates with rainfall observations from a dense network of rain gauges in Kansas City. The setting provides unique capabilities for examining range dependence in polarimetric rainfall estimates due to the overlapping coverage of the Kansas City, Missouri, and Topeka, Kansas, WSR-88D radars. We focus on polarimetric measurements of specific differential phase shift, KDP, for estimating extreme rainfall. Gauge–radar intercomparisons from the "close-range" Kansas City radar and from the "far-range" Topeka radar show that KDP can provide major improvements in estimating extreme rainfall, but the advantages of KDP rainfall estimates diminish with range. Storm-to-storm variability of multiplicative bias remains an important issue for polarimetric rainfall estimates; variability in bias is comparable at both close and far range from the radar. "Conditional bias," in which peak radar rainfall estimates are lower than rain gauge observations, is a systematic feature of polarimetric rainfall estimates, but is more severe at far range. The Kansas City region has experienced record flooding in urban watersheds since the polarimetric upgrade of the Kansas City and Topeka radars in 2012. Polarimetric rainfall estimates from the far-range Topeka radar provide useful quantitative information on basin-average rainfall, but the ability to resolve spatial variation of the most extreme rain rates diminishes significantly with range from the radar. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During and after rainfall events, the interaction of precipitation with hot urban pavements leads to hot runoff, and its merger with urban streams can result in an abrupt change in water temperature that can harm aquatic ecosystems. To understand this phenomenon and its relation to land cover and hydrometeorological parameters, we analyzed data spanning two years from 100 sites in the eastern United States. To identify surges, we first isolated temperature jumps of at least 0.5°C over 15 min occurring simultaneously with water flow increase. Surge magnitude was defined as the difference between peak stream temperature and baseflow temperature right before the jump. At least 10 surges were observed in 53 of the studied streams, with some surges exceeding 10°C. Our results demonstrate that the watershed developed area and vegetation fraction are the best descriptors of surge frequency (Spearman correlation of 0.76 and 0.77, respectively). On the other hand, for surge magnitude and peak temperature, the primary drivers are stream discharge and stream temperature immediately before the surge. In general, the more urbanized streams were found to be already warmer than their more "vegetated" counterparts during baseflow conditions, and were also the most affected by temperature surges. Together, these findings suggest the existence of a hydrological urban heat island, here defined as the increase in stream temperature (chronic and/or acute), caused by increased urbanization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of rainfall space–time structure, as well as its complex interactions with land surface properties, in flood response remains an open research issue. This study contributes to this understanding, specifically for small (<15 km 2) urban watersheds. Using a flood frequency analysis framework that combines stochastic storm transposition (SST)-based rainfall scenarios with the physically based distributed Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model, we examine the role of rainfall spatial and temporal variability in flood frequency across drainage basin scales in the highly urbanized Dead Run watershed (14.3 km 2), Maryland, USA. The results show the complexities of flood response within several subwatersheds for both short (<50 years) and long (>100 years) rainfall return periods. The impact of impervious area on flood response decreases with increasing rainfall return period. For extreme storms, the maximum discharge is closely linked to the spatial structure of rainfall, especially storm core spatial coverage. The spatial heterogeneity of rainfall increases flood peak magnitudes by 50 % on average at the watershed outlet and its subwatersheds for both small and large return periods. The framework of SST–GSSHA-coupled frequency analysis also highlights the fact that spatially distributed rainfall scenarios are needed in quick-response flood frequency, even for relatively small basin scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report an empirical analysis of the hydrologic response of three small, highly impervious urban watersheds to pulse rainfall events, to assess how traditional stormwater management (SWM) alters urban hydrographs. The watersheds vary in SWM coverage from 3% to 61% and in impervious cover from 45% to 67%. By selecting a set of storm events that involved a single rainfall pulse with >96% of total precipitation delivered in 60 min, we reduced the effect of differences between storms on hydrograph response to isolate characteristic responses attributable to watershed properties. Watershed‐average radar rainfall data were used to generate local storm hyetographs for each event in each watershed, thus compensating for the extreme spatial and temporal heterogeneity of short‐duration, intense rainfall events. By normalizing discharge values to the discharge peak and centring each hydrograph on the time of peak we were able to visualize the envelope of hydrographs for each group and to generate representative composite hydrographs for comparison across the three watersheds. Despite dramatic differences in the fraction of watershed area draining to SWM features across these three headwater tributaries, we did not find strong evidence that SWM causes significant attenuation of the hydrograph peak. Hydrograph response for the three watersheds is remarkably uniform despite contrasts in SWM, impervious cover and spatial patterns of land cover type. The primary difference in hydrograph response is observed on the recession limb of the hydrograph, and that change appears to be associated with higher storm‐total runoff in the watersheds with more area draining to SWM. Our findings contribute more evidence to the work of previous authors suggesting that SWM is less effective at attenuating urban hydrographs than is commonly assumed. Our findings also are consistent with previous work concluding that percent impervious cover may have greater influence on runoff volume than percent SWM coverage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of rainfall space-time structure, as well as its complex interactions with land surface properties, in flood response remains an open research issue. This study contributes to this understanding, specifically in small (<15 km²) urban watersheds. Using a flood frequency analysis framework that combines stochastic storm transposition-based rainfall scenarios with the physically-based distributed GSSHA model, we examine the role of rainfall spatial and temporal variability in flood frequency across drainage scales in the highly-urbanized Dead Run watershed (14.3 km²) outside of Baltimore, Maryland, USA. The results show the complexities of flood response within several subwatersheds for both short (<50 years) and long (>100 years) rainfall return periods. The impact of impervious area on flood response decreases with increasing rainfall return period. For extreme storms, the maximum discharge is closely linked to the spatial structure of rainfall, especially storm core spatial coverage. The spatial heterogeneity of rainfall increases flood peak magnitudes by 50% on average at the watershed outlet and its subwatersheds for both small and large return periods. The results imply that commonly-made assumption of spatially uniform rainfall in urban flood frequency modeling is problematic even for relatively small basin scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 14 September 2015 Hildale, Utah, storm resulted in 20 flash flood fatalities, making it the most deadly natural disaster in Utah history; it is the quintessential example of the "paroxysmal precipitation of the desert". The measured peak discharge from Maxwell Canyon at a drainage area of 5.3 km2 was 266 m3/s, a value that exceeds envelope curve peaks for Utah. The 14 September 2015 flash flood reflects features common to other major flash flood events in the region, as well as unique features. The flood was produced by a hailstorm that was moving rapidly from southwest to northeast and intensified as it interacted with complex terrain. Polarimetric radar observations show that the storm exhibited striking temporal variability, with the Maxwell Canyon tributary of Short Creek and a small portion of the East Fork Virgin River basin experiencing extreme precipitation. Periods of extreme rainfall rates for the 14 September 2015 storm are characterized by KDP signatures of extreme rainfall in polarimetric radar measurements. Similar KDP signatures characterized multiple storms that have produced record and near‐record flood peaks in Colorado Plateau watersheds. The climatology of monsoon thunderstorms that produce flash floods exhibits striking spatial heterogeneities in storm occurrence and motion. The hydroclimatology of flash flooding in arid/semiarid watersheds of the southwestern United States exhibits relatively weak dependence on drainage basin area. Large flood peaks over a broad range of basin scales can be produced by small thunderstorms like the 14 September 2015 Hildale Storm, which pass close to the outlet. Key Points: The 14 September 2015 Hildale storm was a hailstorm that produced catastrophic flooding in southern UtahThe climatology of monsoon thunderstorms that produce flash floods in the southwestern United States exhibits large spatial heterogeneityRecord flood peaks over a wide range of basin scales are produced by "small," monsoon storms that pass close to the basin outlet [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flash flooding in the arid/semiarid southwestern United States is frequently associated with convective rainfall during the North American monsoon. In this study, we examine flood-producing storms in central Arizona based on analyses of dense rain gauge observations and stream gauging records as well as North American Regional Reanalysis fields. Our storm catalog consists of 102 storm events during the period of 1988-2014. Synoptic conditions for flood-producing storms are characterized based on principal component analyses. Four dominant synoptic modes are identified, with the first two modes explaining approximately 50% of the variance of the 500-hPa geopotential height. The transitional synoptic pattern from the North American monsoon regime to midlatitude systems is a critical large-scale feature for extreme rainfall and flooding in central Arizona. Contrasting spatial rainfall organizations and storm environment under the four synoptic modes highlights the role of interactions among synoptic conditions, mesoscale processes, and complex terrains in determining space-time variability of convective activities and flash flood hazards in central Arizona. We characterize structure and evolution properties of flood-producing storms based on storm tracking algorithms and 3D radar reflectivity. Fast-moving storm elements can be important ingredients for flash floods in the arid/semiarid southwestern United States. Contrasting storm properties for cloudburst storms highlight the wide spectrum of convective intensities for extreme rain rates in the arid/semiarid southwestern United States and exhibit comparable vertical structures to their counterparts in the eastern United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid urbanization over Phoenix has resulted in increased water consumption for maintenance of green spaces and heat stress mitigation. The hydrometeorological impact of urban irrigation is not well understood and is the principal objective of this study. Our results are based on high‐resolution numerical experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. A simple irrigation scheme is implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting model to represent changes in soil moisture due to irrigation. A monthlong simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with irrigation shows improved model performance in representing the regional water and energy cycle. Comparisons of model simulations with and without irrigation highlight the regional impacts of urban irrigation on surface heat fluxes and rainfall variability over Phoenix. There is a strong modulation of irrigation on surface energy partitioning over both irrigated and nonirrigated areas. Irrigation increases (decreases) surface latent (sensible) heat fluxes by enhanced evapotranspiration over irrigated areas, with opposing changes presented over nonirrigated areas. Irrigation contributes little to the domain‐average rainfall accumulation, but can noticeably modify its spatial distribution, with increased rainfall over the downwind mountainous regions and decreased rainfall over the irrigated areas. Irrigation‐induced rainfall anomalies can be tied to strengthened thermal gradients and induced changes in surface pressure fields, which lead to perturbations on large‐scale flow and its interactions with complex terrain. Our results shed light on the hydrometeorological impacts of increasing anthropogenic water use driven by urbanization and highlight the importance of accurate representations of land surface processes in better characterizing land‐atmosphere interactions in arid/semiarid regions. Key Points: Hydrometeorological impacts due to urban irrigation are examined based on WRF model simulations with a simple irrigation schemeThe impacts of urban irrigation on surface heat fluxes and rainfall extend beyond local scales through perturbations to atmospheric forcingsAccurate representations of human water consumption are important in characterizing land‐atmosphere interactions in arid/semiarid regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban development, topographic relief, and coastal boundaries can all exert influences on storm hydroclimatology, making rainfall and flood frequency analysis a major challenge. This study explores heterogeneity in extreme rainfall in the Baltimore Metropolitan region at small spatial scales using hydrometeorological analyses of major storm events in combination with hydroclimatological analyses based on storm catalogs developed using a 16‐year record of high‐resolution bias‐corrected radar rainfall fields. Our analyses demonstrate the potential for rainfall frequency methods using storm catalogs combined with stochastic storm transposition (SST); procedures are implemented for Dead Run, a small (14.3 km2) urban watershed located within the Baltimore Metropolitan area. The results point to the pronounced impact of complex terrain (including the Chesapeake Bay to the east, mountainous terrain to the west and urbanization in the region) on the regional rainfall climatology. Warm‐season thunderstorm systems are shown to be the dominant mechanism for generating extreme, short‐duration rainfall that leads to flash flooding. The SST approach is extended through the implementation of a multiplier field that accounts for spatial heterogeneities in extreme rainfall magnitude. SST‐based analyses demonstrate the need to consider rainfall heterogeneity at multiple scales when estimating the rainfall intensity‐duration‐frequency relationships. Key Points: There is significant spatial heterogeneity in extreme rainfall across the Baltimore area, which is closely linked to the complex terrainStochastic storm transposition‐based analysis highlights the necessity of considering spatial heterogeneity in rainfall estimation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the upper tail of flood peak distributions through analyses of annual peak observations from more than 8,000 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gaging stations and through hydrometeorological analyses of the storms that produce the most extreme floods. We focus on the distribution of the upper tail ratio, which is defined as the peak discharge for the flood of record at a stream gaging station divided by the sample 10‐year flood magnitude. The 14 June 1903 Heppner storm, which produced an upper tail ratio of 200, was the product of a hailstorm that formed along the Blue Mountains in eastern Oregon, a region dominated by snowmelt flooding. A striking contrast between record flood peaks and the larger distribution of annual flood peaks in the United States is in the seasonality of flood occurrence, with record floods reflecting a much stronger contribution from warm season thunderstorm systems. Mountainous terrain and intense convective rainfall are important elements of the geography and hydrometeorology of extreme upper tail ratio flood peaks. The distribution of upper tail ratio values for USGS stream gaging stations does not depend on basin area, a result which is consistent with scaling results based on extreme value theory. Downscaling simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model are used to examine the storm environment of the 1903 Heppner storm, along with two other record flood peaks near the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon from the USGS miscellaneous flood record, the July 1956 Meyers Canyon flood and the July 1965 Lane Canyon flood. Key Points: The upper tail of flood peaks in the United States is examined through analyses of the upper tail ratio for annual flood peak observationsTwo important aspects of strange floods in the United States are location near mountainous terrain and intense thunderstorms as causative agentsA fundamental distinction between record floods in the United States and the broader population of annual flood peaks is their seasonal distribution [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hydroclimatology, hydrometeorology, and hydrology of flash floods in the arid/semiarid southwestern United States are examined through empirical analyses of long-term, high-resolution rainfall and stream gauging observations, together with hydrological modeling analyses of the 19 August 2014 storm based on the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion Model (KINEROS2). The analyses presented here are centered on identifying the structure and evolution of flood-producing storms, as well as the interactions of space–time rainfall variability and basin characteristics in determining the upper-tail properties of rainfall and flood magnitudes over this region. This study focuses on four watersheds in Maricopa County, Arizona, with contrasting geomorphological properties. Flash floods over central Arizona are concentrated in both time and space, reflecting controls of the North American monsoon and complex terrain. Thunderstorm systems during the North American monsoon, as represented by the 19 August 2014 storm, are the dominant flood agents that determine the upper tail of flood frequency over central Arizona and that also shape the envelope curve of floods for watersheds smaller than 250 km². Flood response for the 19 August 2014 storm is associated with storm elements of comparable spatial extent to the drainage area and slow movement for the three compact, headwater watersheds. Flood response for the elongated and relatively flat Skunk Creek highlights the importance of the spatial distribution of rainfall for transmission losses in arid/semiarid watersheds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine urban flood response through data-driven analyses for a diverse sample of 'small' watersheds (basin scale ranging from 7.0 to 111.1 km2) in the Charlotte Metropolitan region. These watersheds have experienced extensive urbanization and suburban development since the 1960s. The objective of this study is to develop a broad characterization of land surface and hydrometeorological controls of urban flood hydrology. Our analyses are based on peaks-over-threshold flood data developed from USGS streamflow observations and are motivated by problems of flood hazard characterization for urban regions. We examine flood-producing rainfall using high-resolution (1 km2 spatial resolution and 15 min time resolution), bias-corrected radar rainfall fields that are developed through the Hydro-NEXRAD system. The analyses focus on the 2001-2015 period. The results highlight the complexities of urban flood response. There are striking spatial heterogeneities in flood peak magnitudes, response times, and runoff ratios across the study region. These spatial heterogeneities are mainly linked to watershed scale, the distribution of impervious cover, and storm water management. Contrasting land surface properties also determine the mixture of flood-generating mechanisms for a particular watershed. Warm-season thunderstorm systems and tropical cyclones are main flood agents in Charlotte, with winter/spring storms playing a role in less-urbanized watersheds. The mixture of flood agents exerts a strong impact on the upper tail of flood frequency distributions. Antecedent watershed wetness plays a minor role in urban flood response, compared with less-urbanized watersheds. Implications for flood hazard characterization in urban watersheds and for advances in flood science are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The partitioning of evapotranspiration ( ET) between plant transpiration ( Et) and direct evaporation ( Ed) presents one of the most important and challenging problems for characterizing ecohydrological processes. The exchange of water vapor ( q) and CO2 ( c) are closely coupled in ecosystem processes and knowledge of their controls can be gained through joint investigation of q and c. In this study we examine the correlation of water vapor and CO2 ( Rqc) through analyses of high-frequency time series derived from eddy covariance measurements collected over a suburban grass field in Princeton, NJ during a 2 year period (2011-2013). Rqc at the study site exhibits pronounced seasonal and diurnal cycles, with maximum anticorrelation in June and maximum decorrelation in January. The diurnal cycle of Rqc varies seasonally and is characterized by a near-symmetric shape with peak anticorrelation around local noon. Wavelet and spectral analyses suggest that q and c are jointly transported for most eddy scales (1-200 m), which is important for ET partitioning methods based on flux variance similarity. The diurnal cycle of the transpiration fraction (ratio of Et to total ET) exhibits an asymmetric diurnal cycle, especially during the warm season, with peak values occurring in the afternoon. These ET partitioning results give similar diurnal and seasonal patterns compared with numerical simulations from the Noah Land Surface Model using the Jarvis canopy resistance formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The regional water cycle is examined with a special focus on water vapor transport in Iowa during the Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) campaign period, April-June 2013. The period had exceptionally large rainfall accumulations, and rainfall was distributed over an unusually large number of storm days. Radar-derived rainfall fields covering the 200 000 km2 study region; precipitable water from a network of global positioning system (GPS) measurements; and vertically integrated water vapor flux derived from GPS precipitable water, radar velocity-azimuth display (VAD) wind profiles, and radiosonde humidity profiles are utilized. They show that heavy rainfall is relatively weakly correlated with precipitable water and precipitable water change, with somewhat stronger direct relationships to water vapor flux. Thermodynamic properties tied to the vertical distribution of water vapor play an important role in determining heavy rainfall distribution, especially for periods of strong southerly water vapor flux. The diurnal variation of the water cycle during the IFloodS field campaign is pronounced, especially for rainfall and water vapor flux. To examine the potential effects of relative humidity in the lower atmosphere on heavy rainfall, numerical simulations are performed. It is found that low-level moisture can greatly affect heavy rainfall amount under favorable large-scale environmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The structure and evolution of flash flood-producing storms over a small urban watershed in the mid-Atlantic United States with a prototypical flash flood response is examined. Lagrangian storm properties are investigated through analyses of the 32 storms that produced the largest peak discharges in Moores Run between January 2000 and May 2014. The Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis, and Nowcasting (TITAN) algorithm is used to track storm characteristics over their life cycle with a focus on storm size, movement, intensity, and location. First, the 13 June 2003 and 1 June 2006 storms, which produced the two largest peak discharges for the study period, are analyzed. Heavy rainfall for the 13 June 2003 and 1 June 2006 storms were caused by a collapsing thunderstorm cell and a slow-moving, low-echo centroid storm. Analyses of the 32 storms show that collapsing storm cells play an important role in peak rainfall rate production and flash flooding. Storm motion is predominantly southwest-to-northeast, and approximately half of the storms exhibited some linear organization. Mean storm total rainfall for the 32 storms displayed an asymmetric distribution around Moores Run, with sharply decreasing gradients southwest of the watershed (upwind and into the city) and increased rainfall to the northeast (downwind and away from the city). Results indicate urban modification of rainfall in flash flood-producing storms. There was no evidence that the storms split around Baltimore. Flood-producing rainfall was highly concentrated in time; on average, approximately 21% of the storm total rainfall fell within 15 min. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze flash flooding in small urban watersheds, with special focus on the roles of rainfall variability, antecedent soil moisture, and urban storm water management infrastructure in storm event hydrologic response. Our results are based on empirical analyses of high-resolution rainfall and discharge observations over Harry's Brook watershed in Princeton, New Jersey, during 2005-2006, as well as numerical experiments with the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. We focus on two subwatersheds of Harry's Brook, a 1.1 km2 subwatershed which was developed prior to modern storm water management regulations, and a 0.5 km2 subwatershed with an extensive network of storm water detention ponds. The watershed developed prior to modern storm water regulations is an 'end-member' in urban flood response, exhibiting a frequency of flood peaks (with unit discharge exceeding 1 m3 s−1 km−2) that is comparable to the 'flashiest' watersheds in the conterminous U.S. Observational analyses show that variability in storm event water balance is strongly linked to peak rain rates at time intervals of less than 30 min and only weakly linked to antecedent soil moisture conditions. Peak discharge for both the 1.1 and 0.5 km2 subwatersheds are strongly correlated with rainfall rate averaged over 1-30 min. Hydrologic modeling analyses indicate that the sensitivity of storm event hydrologic response to spatial rainfall variability decreases with storm intensity. Temporal rainfall variability is relatively more important than spatial rainfall variability in representing urban flood response, especially for extreme storm events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 1927 flood in the Lower Mississippi River was the most destructive flood in American history, inundating more than 70,000 km2 of land, resulting in approximately 500 fatalities and leaving more than 700,000 people homeless. Despite the prominence of the 1927 flood, details on the flood, and the storms that produced the flood, are sparse. We examine the hydrometeorology and hydroclimatology of the 1927 flood in the Lower Mississippi River through downscaling simulations of the storms that were responsible for catastrophic flooding and through empirical analyses of rainfall and streamflow records. We use Twentieth Century Reanalysis fields as boundary conditions and initial conditions for downscaling simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We place the hydrometeorological analyses of the 1927 storms in a hydroclimatological context through analyses of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis fields. Analyses are designed to assess the physical processes that control the upper tail of flooding in the Lower Mississippi River. We compare the 1927 flood in the Lower Mississippi River to floods in 1937 and 2011 that represent the most extreme flooding in the Lower Mississippi River. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a climatology of the structure and evolution of rainfall for organized thunderstorm systems in the urban corridor of the northeastern United States is developed. These storm systems are major agents of flash flooding for urban regions of the northeastern United States and, more generally, for the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. The analyses are motivated by problems that center on characterizing flash flood hazards. The authors focus on spatial heterogeneities of rainfall associated with urbanization in a region of complex landscape including mountainous terrain and land-water boundaries along the geometrically complex coastline of the New York City-New Jersey metropolitan region. The sample of storms selected for investigation consists of the 50 days from April to September 2001-09 with the largest cloud-to-ground lightning flash density derived from National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) observations over the study region. Storm-tracking analyses of 3D radar reflectivity fields are performed for the 50 storm days and used to develop a Lagrangian climatology of storm structure and evolution for the study region. Rainfall analyses for the 50 storm days are based on high-resolution (1 km, 15 min) bias-corrected radar rainfall fields developed from the Hydro-NEXRAD system. The analyses suggest that complex terrain and land-water boundaries have large impacts on Lagrangian storm properties. Areas of increased heavy rainfall and lightning flash density over New York City were identified. The authors found evidence for changing storm structure as thunderstorms pass over New York City, but little evidence that thunderstorms split as they approach New York City. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The NEXRAD program has recently upgraded the WSR-88D network observational capability with dual polarization (DP). In this study, DP quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) provided by the current version of the NWS system are evaluated using a dense rain gauge network and two other single-polarization (SP) rainfall products. The analyses are performed for the period and spatial domain of the Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) campaign. It is demonstrated that the current version (2014) of QPE from DP is not superior to that from SP mainly because DP QPE equations introduce larger bias than the conventional rainfall-reflectivity [i.e., R( Z)] relationship for some hydrometeor types. Moreover, since the QPE algorithm is based on hydrometeor type, abrupt transitions in the phase of hydrometeors introduce errors in QPE with surprising variation in space that cannot be easily corrected using rain gauge data. In addition, the propagation of QPE uncertainties across multiple hydrological scales is investigated using a diagnostic framework. The proposed method allows us to quantify QPE uncertainties at hydrologically relevant scales and provides information for the evaluation of hydrological studies forced by these rainfall datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, rainfall variability in the Beijing metropolitan region and its link to urbanization during the first 10 years of the twenty-first century (2000-09) was examined. Analyses are based on both observations and regional climate model simulations. The study was focused on August, one of the summer months that receive most of the warm season precipitation in Beijing. Observations from surface stations and weather radars in Beijing and its surrounding regions along with satellite observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) are used to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation. It is found that the urban area has fewer rain days and higher rainfall intensity compared to its surrounding region. This suggests a possible impact of urbanization on the spatial variability of rainfall for the region. Regional climate model simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are thus performed with two land use-land cover datasets that represent different stages of urbanization in the Beijing metropolitan region to investigate such an impact. The modeling study demonstrates how urbanization modifies the surface energy budget and the planetary boundary layer, which in turn affects the production of precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate records of high-resolution rainfall fields are essential in urban hydrology, and are lacking in many areas. We develop a high-resolution (15 min, 1 km2) radar rainfall data set for Charlotte, North Carolina during the 2001-2010 period using the Hydro- NEXRAD system with radar reflectivity from the National Weather Service Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler weather radar located in Greer, South Carolina. A dense network of 71 rain gages is used for estimating and correcting radar rainfall biases. Radar rainfall estimates with daily mean field bias (MFB) correction accurately capture the spatial and temporal structure of extreme rainfall, but bias correction at finer timescales can improve cold-season and tropical cyclone rainfall estimates. Approximately 25 rain gages are sufficient to estimate daily MFB over an area of at least 2,500 km2, suggesting that robust bias correction is feasible in many urban areas. Conditional (rain-rate dependent) bias can be removed, but at the expense of other performance criteria such as mean square error. Hydro- NEXRAD radar rainfall estimates are also compared with the coarser resolution (hourly, 16 km2) Stage IV operational rainfall product. Stage IV is adequate for flood water balance studies but is insufficient for applications such as urban flood modeling, in which the temporal and spatial scales of relevant hydrologic processes are short. We recommend the increased use of high-resolution radar rainfall fields in urban hydrology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, observational and numerical modeling analyses based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) are used to investigate the impact of urbanization on heavy rainfall over the Milwaukee-Lake Michigan region. The authors examine urban modification of rainfall for a storm system with continental-scale moisture transport, strong large-scale forcing, and extreme rainfall over a large area of the upper Midwest of the United States. WRF simulations were carried out to examine the sensitivity of the rainfall distribution in and around the urban area to different urban land surface model representations and urban land-use scenarios. Simulation results suggest that urbanization plays an important role in precipitation distribution, even in settings characterized by strong large-scale forcing. For the Milwaukee-Lake Michigan region, the thermodynamic perturbations produced by urbanization on the temperature and surface pressure fields enhance the intrusion of the lake breeze and facilitate the formation of a convergence zone, which create favorable conditions for deep convection over the city. Analyses of model and observed vertical profiles of reflectivity using contoured frequency by altitude displays (CFADs) suggest that cloud dynamics over the city do not change significantly with urbanization. Simulation results also suggest that the large-scale rainfall pattern is not sensitive to different urban representations in the model. Both urban representations, the Noah land surface model with urban land categories and the single-layer urban canopy model, adequately capture the dominant features of this storm over the urban region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flooding is the product of complex interactions among spatially and temporally varying rainfall, heterogeneous land surface properties, and drainage network structure. Conventional approaches to flood frequency analysis rely on assumptions regarding these interactions across a range of scales. The impacts of these assumptions on flood risk estimates are poorly understood. In this study, we present an alternative flood frequency analysis framework based on stochastic storm transposition (SST). We use SST to synthesize long records of rainfall over the Charlotte, North Carolina, USA metropolitan area by 'reshuffling' radar rainfall fields, within a probabilistic framework, from a 10 year (2001-2010) high-resolution (15 min, 1 km2) radar data set. We use these resampled fields to drive a physics-based distributed hydrologic model for a heavily urbanized watershed in Charlotte. The approach makes it possible to estimate discharge return periods for all points along the drainage network without the assumptions regarding rainfall structure and its interactions with watershed features that are required using conventional methods. We develop discharge estimates for return periods from 10 to 1000 years for a range of watershed scales up to 110 km2. SST reveals that flood risk in the larger subwatersheds is dominated by tropical storms, while organized thunderstorm systems dominate flood risk in the smaller subwatersheds. We contrast these analyses with examples of potential problems that can arise from conventional frequency analysis approaches. SST provides an approach for examining the spatial extent of flooding and for incorporating nonstationarities in rainfall or land use into flood risk estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors examine the hydroclimatology, hydrometeorology, and hydrology of flooding in the Milwaukee metropolitan region of the upper midwestern United States. The objectives of this study are 1) to assess nonstationarities in flood frequency associated with urban transformation of land surface properties and climate change and 2) to examine how spatial heterogeneity in land surface properties and heavy rainfall climatology interact to determine floods in urbanizing areas. The authors focus on the Menomonee River basin, which drains much of the urban core of Milwaukee, and the adjacent Cedar Creek basin, where agricultural land use dominates. Results are based on analyses of bias-corrected, high-resolution (1-km2 spatial resolution and 15-min time resolution) radar rainfall fields that are developed using the Hydro-NEXRAD system, rainfall observations from a network of 21 rain gauges in the Milwaukee metropolitan region, and discharge observations from 11 U.S. Geological Survey stream gauging stations. Both annual flood peak magnitudes and annual peaks over threshold flood counts have increased for the Menomonee River basin during the past five decades, and these trends are accompanied by a transition of flood events dominated by snowmelt (March-April floods) to a regime in which warm season thunderstorms are the dominant flood-producing agents. The frequency of heavy rainfall events has increased significantly. The spatial distribution of rainfall for flood-producing storms in the Milwaukee study region exhibits striking spatial heterogeneity, with a maximum in the central portion of the Menomonee River basin. Storm event hydrologic response is determined by the interactions of spatial patterns of urbanization and rainfall distribution in the Menomonee River basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors examine the hydroclimatology, hydrometeorology, and hydrology of extreme floods through analyses that center on the June 2008 flooding in Iowa. The most striking feature of the June 2008 flooding was the flood peak of the Cedar River at Cedar Rapids (3964 m3 s−1), which was almost twice the previous maximum from a record of 110 years. The spatial extent of extreme flooding was exceptional, with more U.S. Geological Survey stream gauging stations reporting record flood peaks than in any other year. The 2008 flooding was produced by a sequence of organized thunderstorm systems over a period of two weeks. The authors examine clustering and seasonality of flooding in the Iowa study region and link these properties to features of the June 2008 flood event. They examine the environment of heavy rainfall in Iowa during June 2008 through analyses of composite rainfall fields (15-min time interval and 1-km spatial resolution) developed with the Hydro-NEXRAD system and simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Water balance analyses of extreme flood response, based on rainfall and discharge observations from basins with extreme flooding, suggest that antecedent soil moisture plays a diminishing role in flood response as the return interval increases. Rainfall structure and evolution play a critical and poorly understood role in determining the scaling of flood response. As in other extreme flood studies, analyses of the Iowa flood data suggest that measurement errors can be significant for record discharge estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dual-polarization radars are expected to provide better rainfall estimates than single-polarization radars because of their ability to characterize hydrometeor type. The goal of this study is to evaluate single- and dual-polarization radar rainfall fields based on two overlapping radars (Kansas City, Missouri, and Topeka, Kansas) and a dense rain gauge network in Kansas City. The study area is located at different distances from the two radars (23-72 km for Kansas City and 104-157 km for Topeka), allowing for the investigation of radar range effects. The temporal and spatial scales of radar rainfall uncertainty based on three significant rainfall events are also examined. It is concluded that the improvements in rainfall estimation achieved by polarimetric radars are not consistent for all events or radars. The nature of the improvement depends fundamentally on range-dependent sampling of the vertical structure of the storms and hydrometeor types. While polarimetric algorithms reduce range effects, they are not able to completely resolve issues associated with range-dependent sampling. Radar rainfall error is demonstrated to decrease as temporal and spatial scales increase. However, errors in the estimation of total storm accumulations based on polarimetric radars remain significant (up to 25%) for scales of approximately 650 km2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) are used in conjunction with observational analyses to investigate land surface processes and heavy rainfall over the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area. Analyses focus on a 6-day period, 21-26 July 2008, which in-cludes a major eonveetive rain event (23-24 July), a prestorm period (21-22 July), and a dry-down period (25-26 July). The performance of WRF in capturing land-atmosphere interactions, the bulk structure of the atmospheric boundary layer, and the rainfall pattern in urban environments is explored. Results indicate that WRF captures the incoming radiative fluxes and surface meteorological conditions. Mean profiles of potential temperature and humidity in the atmosphere are also relatively well reproduced, both preceding and fol-lowing the heavy rainfall period. However, wind features in the lower atmosphere, including low-level jets, are not accurately reproduced by WRF. The biases in the wind fields play a central role in determining errors in WRF-simulated rainfall fields. The study also investigates the sensitivity of WRF simulations to different urban surface representations. It is found that urban surface representations have a significant impact on the surface energy balance and the rainfall distribution. As the impervious fraction increases, the sensible heat flux and the ground heat flux increase, while the latent heat flux decreases. The impact of urban surface representations on precipitation is as significant as that of microphysical parameterizations. The fact that changing urban surface representations can significantly alter the rainfall field suggests that urbanization plays an important role in modifying the regional precipitation pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On July 17-18, 1996, two mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) passed through northeastern Illinois, causing a record 440-mm total storm rainfall within a 24-h period at Aurora, Illinois, with values exceeding 200 mm throughout a broad area of the region. The storm caused flooding with a return period larger than 100 years at different USGS regional stream gauging locations. The Davenport, Iowa, Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radar coverage allows high-quality characterization of the storm at fine spatial and temporal scales. Of particular interest is the inter- and intravariability in watershed response to the two pulses of intense rainfall. Spatial distribution of rainfall and the degree of urbanization of the individual basins are the dominant factors determining the magnitude of runoff response. These properties are highly dependent on the extent and history of urbanization. Examination of the annual maximum instantaneous peak discharge and the peaks-over-threshold (POT) time series at three stream gauging stations in Illinois (Blackberry Creek, DuPage River, and Sawmill Creek) over the past 50 years points to the large effect of urbanization on the flood peak distribution in the greater Chicago metropolitan area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study is to characterize the climatology of extreme rainfall and flash flooding in Atlanta, Georgia using high-resolution land surface, rainfall, and discharge datasets. We examine nine urban watersheds in the Atlanta area that range in size from 3.7 to 225 km² and exhibit a range of urban development and land-use characteristics. We develop a high-resolution 15 mm, 1 km² radar rainfall data set for the 2002-2010 period using the Hydro-NEXRAD system with volume scan reflectivity observations from the Atlanta WSR-88D radar and rainfall observations from a dense network of 72 U.s. Geological Survey rain gauges. Bias-corrected radar rainfall fields accurately capture the spatial and temporal structure of heavy rainfall. There is enhancement of heavy rainfall within and east of the urban core, and a rainfall minimum north and northwest of the city. There has been an increase in variability of aanual flood peaks in Atlanta since the 1960s associated with urban impacts on runoff production. Flood response is dependent on a combination of basin size, drainage network structure, spatial distribution of land use, and basin storage in urban soils and storm water detention ponds. Future studies of urban rainfall modification in Atlanta and elsewhere should consider the influence of regional topography and other geographic features on the storm environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a long-term, high-resolution radar rainfall data set for the Baltimore metropolitan area covering the 10-yr period from 2000-2009. Rainfall fields are developed at 15 mm time interval and 1 km horizontal resolution for a 17,000-km² region centered on the Baltimore metropolitan area. The Hydro-NEXRAD system is used as a platform for generating radar rainfall fields. We utilize the high-resolution, 10-yr data set to characterize striking spatial heterogeneities in rainfall for the Baltimore metropolitan region, both in terms of mean rainfall and rainfall extremes. The role of complex terrain (associated with urbanization, the Chesapeake Bay, and mountainous terrain) in controlling spatial heterogeneities of rainfall climatology for the Baltimore study region is discussed. We also characterize the seasonal and diurnal variation of rainfall over the study region using the 10-yr rainfall data set, with particular focus on the diurnal variation of rainfall during the warm season. High-resolution rainfall fields are especially useful for examining the distribution of rainfall from a drainage basin perspective, as illustrated through analyses of basin-averaged rainfall rate for basins of contrasting drainage area and analyses of the duration of dry periods for small urban watersheds. Analyses and methodologies used to develop the long-term Baltimore rainfall data set are broadly applicable to other regions of the United States and in settings around the world with long-term, high-quality radar data sets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Villarini, Gabriele, James A. Smith, Mary Lynn Baeck, and Witold F. Krajewski, 2011. Examining Flood Frequency Distributions in the Midwest U.S. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):447-463. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00540.x Annual maximum peak discharge time series from 196 stream gage stations with a record of at least 75 years from the Midwest United States is examined to study flood peak distributions from a regional point of view. The focus of this study is to evaluate: (1) 'mixtures' of flood peak distributions, (2) upper tail and scaling properties of the flood peak distributions, and (3) presence of temporal nonstationarities in the flood peak records. Warm season convective systems are responsible for some of the largest floods in the area, in particular in Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa. Spring events associated with snowmelt and rain-on-snow are common in the northern part of the study domain. Nonparametric tests are used to investigate the presence of abrupt and slowly varying changes. Change-points rather than monotonic trends are responsible for most violations of the stationarity assumption. The abrupt changes in flood peaks can be associated with anthropogenic changes, such as changes in land use/land cover, agricultural practice, and construction of dams. The trend analyses do not suggest an increase in the flood peak distribution due to anthropogenic climate change. Examination of the upper tail and scaling properties of the flood peak distributions are examined by means of the location, scale, and shape parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flooding in the eastern United States reflects a mixture of flood-generating mechanisms, with landfalling tropical cyclones and extratropical systems playing central roles. The authors examine the climatology of heavy rainfall and flood magnitudes for the eastern United States through analyses of long-duration records of flood peaks and maximum daily rainfall series. Spatial heterogeneities in flood peak distributions due to orographic precipitation mechanisms in mountainous terrain, coastal circulations near land--ocean boundaries, and urbanization impacts on regional climate are central elements of flood peak distributions. Lagrangian analyses of rainfall distribution and storm evolution are presented for flood events in the eastern United States and used to motivate new directions for stochastic modeling of rainfall. Tropical cyclones are an important element of the upper tail of flood peak distributions throughout the eastern United States, but their relative importance varies widely, and abruptly, in space over the region. Nonstationarities and long-term persistence of flood peak and rainfall distributions are examined from the perspective of the impacts of human-induced climate change on flood-generating mechanisms. Analyses of flood frequency for the eastern United States, which are based on observations from a dense network of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauging stations, provide insights into emerging problems in flood science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The central Appalachian region has experienced some of the largest rainfall accumulations in the world at time intervals less than 6 h, including the 18 July 1942 Smethport, Pennsylvania, storm that produced 780 mm in less than 5 h. The envelope curve of central Appalachian flood peaks at 'small' drainage areas (less than 1000 km2) is dominated by orographic thunderstorm systems, like the Smethport storm. Orographic thunderstorm systems that have produced catastrophic flooding in the central Appalachians are examined through observational and numerical model analyses using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Analyses suggest that the frequency of catastrophic flooding varies over the central Appalachian region and that small-scale variation may be linked to the role of complex terrain in altering thunderstorm dynamics. Catastrophic flooding along the western margin of the central Appalachians is dominated by four storms that occurred on 18-19 July (1889, 1942, 1977, and 1996), which were associated with warm season extratropical systems and were characterized by rapidly moving storm elements in complex terrain. Along the eastern margin and interior of the central Appalachians, catastrophic flooding is linked to four 'terrain-locked' orographic convective systems that occurred 17-18 June 1949, 18-19 August 1969, 27 June 1995, and 11 August 2003. WRF model simulations of the Little River storm (June 1949), Rapidan storm (June 1995), Smethport storm (18 July 1942) and Redbank storm (18-19 July 1996) are used to characterize 'ingredients' of catastrophic rainstorms in the central Appalachians. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meierdiercks, Katherine L., James A. Smith, Mary Lynn Baeck, and Andrew J. Miller, 2010. Heterogeneity of Hydrologic Response in Urban Watersheds. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(6):1221-1237. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00487.x The changing patterns of streamflow associated with urbanization are examined through analyses of discharge and rainfall records for the study watersheds of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES). Analyses utilize a decade (1999-2008) of observations from a dense U.S. Geological Survey stream gaging network and Hydro-NEXRAD radar rainfall fields. The principal study watershed of the BES is Gwynns Falls (171 km). Focus is given to two Gwynns Falls basins with contrasting patterns and histories of development, Dead Run and Upper Gwynns Falls. The sharp contrasts in streamflow properties between the basins reflect the differences in urban development prior to implementation of stormwater management regulations (much of Dead Run) and development for which stormwater management is an integral part of the hydrologic system (Upper Gwynns Falls). The mean annual runoff in Dead Run (558 mm) is 35% larger than that of Upper Gwynns Falls; larger contrasts in runoff properties typify the 'warm season' and are linked to storm event hydrologic response. Spatial heterogeneities in storm event response are reflected in seasonal and diurnal properties of streamflow. Analyses of storm event response are presented for June 2006, during which monthly rainfall over the BES region ranged from less than 150 to more than 500 mm. Baisman Run, the BES forest reference watershed, and Moores Run, a highly urbanized watershed in Baltimore City, provide 'end-member' representations of urban impacts on streamflow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landfalling tropical cyclones present major hazards for the eastern United States. Hurricane Isabel (September 2003) produced more than $3.3 billion in damages from wind, inland riverine flooding, and storm surge flooding, and resulted in 17 fatalities. Case study analyses of Hurricane Isabel are carried out to investigate multiple hazards from landfalling tropical cyclones. The analyses focus on storm evolution following landfall and center on simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). WRF simulations are coupled with the 2D, depth-averaged hydrodynamic Advanced Circulation Model (ADCIRC), to examine storm surge in the Chesapeake Bay. Analyses of heavy rainfall and flooding include an examination of the structure and evolution of extreme rainfall over land. Intercomparisons of simulated rainfall from WRF with Hydro-NEXRAD rainfall fields and observations from rain gauge networks are presented. A particular focus of these analyses is the evolving distribution of rainfall, relative to the center of circulation, as the storm moves over land. Similar analyses are carried out for the wind field of Hurricane Isabel as it moves over the mid-Atlantic region. Outer rainbands, which are not well captured in WRF simulations, played a major role in urban flooding and wind damage, especially for the Baltimore metropolitan region. Wind maxima in outer rainbands may also have played a role in storm surge flooding in the upper Chesapeake Bay. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meierdiercks, Katherine L., James A. Smith, Mary Lynn Baeck, and Andrew J. Miller, 2010. Analyses of Urban Drainage Network Structure and Its Impact on Hydrologic Response. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1-12. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00465.x Abstract: Urban flood studies have linked the severity of flooding to the percent imperviousness or land use classifications of a watershed, but relatively little attention has been given to the impact of urban drainage networks on hydrologic response. The drainage network, which can include storm pipes, surface channels, street gutters, and stormwater management ponds, is examined in the Dead Run watershed (14.3 km [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme floods in the Delaware River basin are examined through analyses of a sequence of record and near-record floods during September 2004, April 2005, and June 2006. The three flood episodes reflect three principal flood-generating mechanisms in the eastern United States: tropical cyclones (September 2004); late winter–early spring extratropical systems (April 2005); and warm-season convective systems (June 2006). Extreme flooding in the Delaware River basin is the product of heavy rainfall and runoff from high-gradient portions of the watershed. Orographic precipitation mechanisms play a central role in the extreme flood climatology of the Delaware River basin and, more generally, for the eastern United States. Extreme flooding for the 2004–06 events was produced in large measure from forested portions of the watershed. Analyses of flood frequency based on annual flood peak observations from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauging stations with “long” records illustrate the striking heterogeneity of flood response over the region, the important role of landfalling tropical cyclones for the upper tail of flood peak distributions, and the prevalence of nonstationarities in flood peak records. Analyses show that changepoints are a more common source of nonstationarity than linear time trends. Regulation by dams and reservoirs plays an important role in determining changepoints, but the downstream effects of reservoirs on flood distributions are limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrometeorological analyses of rainfall and flood response are presented for urbanizing drainage basins in the Philadelphia metropolitan region. Research focuses on major flood events resulting from Tropical Storm Allison (June 16 and 17, 2001), Hurricane Floyd (September 16 and 17, 1999), an extratropical cyclone on October 19 and 20, 1996, and a squall-line snowmelt event on January 19 and 20, 1996. We also examine the rainfall distribution from an organized thunderstorm system (June 12 and 13, 1996), which produced extreme flooding in ungauged watersheds of the region. The largest flood peaks for many of the USGS stream gauging stations in the Philadelphia metropolitan region were produced by Hurricane Floyd. The most extreme flooding in the Philadelphia metropolitan region in small drainage basins was due to Tropical Storm Allison, which produced localized storm total rainfall accumulations greater than 300 mm. Hydrometeorological and hydrologic studies illustrate the important role of landfalling tropical cyclones for flood hazards for major urban regions of the northeastern United States. Analyses of high-resolution radar rainfall fields are presented, with special emphasis on radar rainfall error structure and the spatial and temporal variations of flood-producing rainfall. Diagnostic and hydrologic model studies in Pennypack Creek, Wissahickon Creek, and the Little Neshaminy Creek are carried out to examine the controls of land surface processes and space-time rainfall distribution on extreme flood response in urban watersheds. Land surface processes and the contrasting distribution of rainfall in space and time from the storm systems that affect the northeastern United States combine to shape the scale-dependent distribution of extreme floods in urban watersheds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heavy precipitation in the northeastern United States is examined through observational and numerical modeling analyses for a weather system that produced extreme rainfall rates and urban flash flooding over the New York–New Jersey region on 4–5 October 2006. Hydrometeorological analyses combine observations from Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) weather radars, the National Lightning Detection Network, surface observing stations in the northeastern United States, a vertically pointing lidar system, and a Joss–Waldvogel disdrometer with simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). Rainfall analyses from the Hydro-Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) system, based on observations from WSR-88D radars in State College, Pennsylvania, and Fort Dix, New Jersey, and WRF model simulations show that heavy rainfall was organized into long-lived lines of convective precipitation, with associated regions of stratiform precipitation, that develop along a frontal zone. Structure and evolution of convective storm elements that produced extreme rainfall rates over the New York–New Jersey urban corridor were influenced by the complex terrain of the central Appalachians, the diurnal cycle of convection, and the history of convective evolution in the frontal zone. Extreme rainfall rates and flash flooding were produced by a “leading line–trailing stratiform” system that was rapidly dissipating as it passed over the New York–New Jersey region. Radar, disdrometer, and lidar observations are used in combination with model analyses to examine the dynamical and cloud microphysical processes that control the spatial and temporal structure of heavy rainfall. The study illustrates key elements of the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall that can be used to characterize flash flood hazards in the urban corridor of the northeastern United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A stochastic model of rainfall rate is used to examine the temporal variability of rainfall during heavy convective rain periods. The model represents the microstructure of rainfall rate at time scales that are important for land surface processes associated with infiltration and runoff production. The representation of rainfall rate is based on a marked point process model of raindrop size distributions, which yields a gamma raindrop spectrum with parameters that are time-varying stochastic processes. Raindrop size distribution observations from a Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer in Princeton, New Jersey, during the period May-October 2006 are used along with the stochastic model to examine rainfall rate variability. Analyses focus on a sample of 60-min time periods in which heavy convective rainfall occurred. Central elements of the analyses entail examination of the relationships between rainfall rate and the time-varying model parameters that characterize the raindrop size distribution. We also examine the dependence structure among these processes. 'Scaling law' formulations of raindrop size distributions are used to examine variability of raindrop size distributions. Analyses of the Princeton heavy rainfall periods also point to seasonal and diurnal heterogeneities as important elements of the distribution of extreme rainfall rates. Convective intensity, as reflected in cloud-to-ground lightning observations, plays an important role in the distribution of extreme rainfall rates and the evolution of raindrop size distributions associated with heavy rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban streams play a significant role in the transport of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) from uplands to sensitive coastal receiving waters. In this study, we investigate the timing of DIN export through monitoring conducted during several storm events of different magnitude and with different antecedent conditions in an urban catchment. Our monitoring was conducted at a first-order stream site in a highly urban catchment in the northeastern United States during four rainstorms. Nitrate made up the dominant portion of the DIN load during all four events and the response of nitrate and ammonia were very different. Discharge, rather than concentration, was the most important factor in determining nitrate export with hot moments of nitrate export coinciding with peaks in flow. However, the highest nitrogen concentrations were observed after the streamflow peak during all of the events. During extreme rainstorms, this delayed response may constitute an important secondary hot-moment of nitrate export. These results may be significant for the development of nitrogen management plans for urban watersheds, especially since many water quality improvement BMPs (best management practices) are being designed to treat the first-flush of stormwater and would miss much of the DIN load. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational analyses and mesoscale modeling studies, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are used to dissect the mechanisms associated with record lightning, rainfall, and flooding over the Baltimore metropolitan region on 7 July 2004. Storm evolution on 7 July 2004 exhibited characteristic features of warm season thunderstorms producing flash flooding over the Baltimore-Washington DC metropolitan region. The storm system was initiated along the Blue Ridge mountains, with model simulations suggesting that convergence-induced spin-up of a meso-low was responsible for initial thunderstorm development. Observations and model analyses show that thermal effects associated with Chesapeake Bay had a pronounced impact on storm evolution and rainfall distribution. Analyses of radar reflectivity and lightning observations suggest that the urban environment played a significant role in storm evolution and heavy rainfall distribution. Model analyses show that urban canopy effects from both the Baltimore and Washington DC urban regions play an important role in determining the storm environment associated with heavy rainfall. Urban Heat Island effects did not play a significant role in the storm evolution. Observations of aerosols and drop-size distributions from a vertically pointing LIDAR and a disdrometer and model analyses suggest that the aerosols may have played an important role in stimulating efficient precipitation mechanisms and extreme rainfall rates for the 7 July 2004 storm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The utility of distributed hydrologic models in combination with high-resolution Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) rainfall estimates for flash flood forecasting in urban drainage basins is examined through model simulations of 10 flood events in the 14.3 km2 Dead Run watershed of Baltimore County, Maryland. The hydrologic model consists of a simple infiltration model and a geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph–based representation of hillslope and channel response. Analyses are based on high-resolution radar rainfall estimates from the Sterling, Virginia, WSR-88D and observations from a nested network of 6 stream gauges in the Dead Run watershed and a network of 17 rain gauge stations in Dead Run. For the three largest flood peaks in Dead Run, including the record flood on 7 July 2004, hydrologic model forecasts do not capture the pronounced attenuation of flood peaks. Hydraulic controls imposed by valley bottom constrictions associated with bridges and bridge abutments are a dominant element of the extreme flood response of small urban watersheds. Model analyses suggest that a major limitation on the accuracy of flash flood forecasting in urban watersheds is imposed by storm water management infrastructure. Model analyses also suggest that there is potential for improving model forecasts through the utilization of information on initial soil moisture storage. Errors in the rainfall field, especially those linked to bias correction, are the largest source of uncertainty in quantitative flash flood forecasting. Bias correction of radar rainfall estimates is an important element of flash flood forecasting systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]