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The probabilistic forecasting method described in this study is devised to leverage spatial and temporal dependency of urban traffic networks, in order to provide predictions accurate at short term and meaningful for a horizon of up to several hours. By design, it can deal with missing data, both for training and running the model. It is able to forecast the state of the entire network in one pass, with an execution time that scales linearly with the size of the network. The method consists in learning a sparse Gaussian copula of traffic variables, compatible with the Gaussian belief propagation algorithm. The model is trained automatically from an historical dataset through an iterative proportional scaling procedure, that is well suited to compatibility constraints induced by Gaussian belief propagation. Results of tests performed on two urban datasets show a very good ability to predict flow variables and reasonably good performances on speed variables. Some understanding of the observed performances is given by a careful analysis of the model, making it to some degree possible to disentangle modeling bias from the intrinsic noise of the traffic phenomena and its measurement process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solid 4He may acquire superfluid characteristics due to the frustration of the solid phase at grain boundaries. Here, introducing a negative-U generalized Hubbard model and a coarse-grained semiclassical pseudospin model, we show that an analogous effect occurs in systems with competition among charge-density-waves (CDW) and superconductivity in the presence of disorder, as cuprate or dichalcogenide superconductors. The CDW breaks apart in domains with topologically protected filamentary superconductivity at the interfaces. Our transport measurements, carried out in underdoped La2−xSrxCuO4, with the magnetic field acting as a control parameter, are shown to be in excellent agreement with our theoretical prediction. Assuming superconductivity and CDW phases have similar energies, at intermediate temperatures, the magnetic field drives the system from a fluctuating superconductor to a CDW as expected in the clean limit. Lowering the temperature, the expected clean quantum critical point is avoided and a filamentary phase appears, analogous to 'glassy' supersolid phenomena in 4He. The transition line ends at a second quantum critical point at high-fields. Within our scenario, the filamentary superconducting phase is parasitic with CDW and bulk superconducting phases playing the role of primary competing order parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tracking multiple moving targets allows quantitative measure of the dynamic behavior in systems as diverse as animal groups in biology, turbulence in fluid dynamics and crowd and traffic control. In three dimensions, tracking several targets becomes increasingly hard since optical occlusions are very likely, i.e., two featureless targets frequently overlap for several frames. Occlusions are particularly frequent in biological groups such as bird flocks, fish schools, and insect swarms, a fact that has severely limited collective animal behavior field studies in the past. This paper presents a 3D tracking method that is robust in the case of severe occlusions. To ensure robustness, we adopt a global optimization approach that works on all objects and frames at once. To achieve practicality and scalability, we employ a divide and conquer formulation, thanks to which the computational complexity of the problem is reduced by orders of magnitude. We tested our algorithm with synthetic data, with experimental data of bird flocks and insect swarms and with public benchmark datasets, and show that our system yields high quality trajectories for hundreds of moving targets with severe overlap. The results obtained on very heterogeneous data show the potential applicability of our method to the most diverse experimental situations. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Collective decision-making in biological systems requires all individuals in the group to go through a behavioural change of state. During this transition fast and robust transfer of information is essential to prevent cohesion loss. The mechanism by which natural groups achieve such robustness, however, is not clear. Here we present an experimental study of starling flocks performing collective turns. We find that information about direction changes propagates across the flock with a linear dispersion law and negligible attenuation, hence minimizing group decoherence. These results contrast starkly with present models of collective motion, which predict diffusive transport of information. Building on spontaneous symmetry breaking and conservation-law arguments, we formulate a theory that correctly reproduces linear and undamped propagation. Essential to this framework is the inclusion of the birds' behavioural inertia. The theory not only explains the data, but also predicts that information transfer must be faster the stronger the group's orientational order, a prediction accurately verified by the data. Our results suggest that swift decision-making may be the adaptive drive for the strong behavioural polarization observed in many living groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Collective behaviour is a widespread phenomenon in biology, cutting through a huge span of scales, from cell colonies up to bird flocks and fish schools. The most prominent trait of collective behaviour is the emergence of global order: individuals synchronize their states, giving the stunning impression that the group behaves as one. In many biological systems, though, it is unclear whether global order is present. A paradigmatic case is that of insect swarms, whose erratic movements seem to suggest that group formation is a mere epiphenomenon of the independent interaction of each individual with an external landmark. In these cases, whether or not the group behaves truly collectively is debated. Here, we experimentally study swarms of midges in the field and measure how much the change of direction of one midge affects that of other individuals. We discover that, despite the lack of collective order, swarms display very strong correlations, totally incompatible with models of non-interacting particles. We find that correlation increases sharply with the swarm's density, indicating that the interaction between midges is based on a metric perception mechanism. By means of numerical simulations we demonstrate that such growing correlation is typical of a system close to an ordering transition. Our findings suggest that correlation, rather than order, is the true hallmark of collective behaviour in biological systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]