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Volcanic plume height is one the most important features of explosive activity; thus, it is a parameter of interest for volcanic monitoring that can be retrieved using different remote sensing techniques. Among them, calibrated visible cameras have demonstrated to be a promising alternative during daylight hours, mainly due to their low cost and low uncertainty in the results. However, currently these measurements are generally not fully automatic. In this paper, we present a new, interactive, open-source MATLAB tool, named 'Plume Height Analyzer' (PHA), which is able to analyze images and videos of explosive eruptions derived from visible cameras, with the objective of automatically identifying the temporal evolution of eruption columns. PHA is a self-customizing tool, i.e., before operational use, the user must perform an iterative calibration procedure based on the analysis of images of previous eruptions of the volcanic system of interest, under different eruptive, atmospheric and illumination conditions. The images used for the calibration step allow the computation of ad hoc expressions to set the model parameters used to recognize the volcanic plume in new images, which are controlled by their individual characteristics. Thereby, the number of frames used in the calibration procedure will control the goodness of the model to analyze new videos/images and the range of eruption, atmospheric, and illumination conditions for which the program will return reliable results. This also allows improvement of the performance of the program as new data become available for the calibration, for which PHA includes ad hoc routines. PHA has been tested on a wide set of videos from recent explosive activity at Mt. Etna, in Italy, and may represent a first approximation toward a real-time analysis of column height using visible cameras on erupting volcanoes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe a method for calculating the probability that a distal geographic location is impacted by a pyroclastic density current (PDC) of a given size, considering the key related uncertainties. Specifically, we evaluate the minimum volume and mass of a PDC generated at the Aso caldera (Japan) that might affect each of five distal infrastructure (marker) sites, with model input parameter uncertainties derived from expert judgment. The 5 marker sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera; as these lie in well-separated directions, we can test the effects of the different topographic shielding effects in each case. To inform our probabilistic analysis, we apply alternative kinetic energy assessment approaches, i.e., rock avalanche and density current dynamics. In the latter formulation, the minimum mass needed to reach the markers ranges between median values of ∼153×1012 and ∼465×1012 kg (M 7.2–7.7), depending on the site. Rock avalanche dynamics modeling indicates that a ∼3 -times greater mass would be required to reach the marker sites with 50 % probability, while the hypothetical scenario of a relatively dilute distal ash cloud would require ∼3 -times less mass. We compare our results with the largest recorded Aso eruption, showing that a catastrophic eruption, similar to Aso-4, ≈ M8, would present a significant conditional probability of PDCs reaching the marker sites, in the density current formulation and contingent on uncertainty in the erupted mass and on marker site direction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We applied systematically the branching energy cone model to a large ( N = 50 ) set of stratovolcanoes around the world in order to evaluate the main topographic characteristics that may control the propagation of dense pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Results indicate that the channelization efficiency of a PDC is strongly controlled by the relative scale between flow size and volcano topographic features. Most of the studied stratovolcanoes topographies are able to induce significant PDC channelization in proximal domains, while strong channelization in distal zones is mainly observed for volcanoes with steep flanks, with long, uninterrupted valleys, and with catchments zones of pyroclastic material (i.e. the valleys heads) located near the source. From the statistical analysis of numerical results, we recognise five groups of stratovolcanoes in terms of the mode of interaction between their topographies and dense PDCs: (1) intense channelization through different valleys up to distal domains (e.g. Colima and Peteroa); (2) intense channelization through a single, dominant valley up to distal domains (e.g. Reventador and Mt. St. Helens); (3) intense channelization near the source and moderate distal channelization, frequently involving intertwined drainage networks (e.g. Tungurahua and El Misti); (4) potentially intense channelization only near the source, typically involving flat distal topographies (e.g. Sinabung and Mayon); and (5) weak channelization in proximal domains, resulting in efficient early energy dissipation and thus reduced PDC run-out distance (e.g. Kelut and Akagi). The relevance of this classification lies in the possibility of defining volcanic analogues (defined here as volcanoes that share a suite of topographic characteristics and may be considered comparable to a certain extent) and identifying the main processes that may affect PDC propagation in specific topographic contexts. These aspects are useful for studying poorly documented volcanic edifices and for volcanic hazard assessment. Additionally, we compare this classification with published morphometric characteristics of volcanoes, showing morphometric parameters such as the mean slope of the low flank, irregularity index, ratio of volcano height and basal width and ratio of crater width and basal width are useful variables for recognising the groups we defined. These parameters can be used as rough indicators of the expected interaction patterns between the topography of a given volcano and dense PDCs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe a method for calculating the probability that a distal geographic location is impacted by a pyroclastic density current (PDC) of a given size, considering the key related uncertainties. Specifically, we evaluate the minimum volume and mass of a PDC generated at the Aso caldera (Japan) that might affect each of three distal infrastructure (target) sites, with model input parameter uncertainties derived from expert judgement. The three target sites are all located 130-145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions and thus, for each, we test the different topographic shielding effects. To inform our probabilistic analysis, we apply alternative kinetic energy assessment approaches, i.e. rock avalanche and density current dynamics. In the latter formulation, the minimum mass needed to reach the targets ranges between median values ~283x1012 kg and ~465x1012 kg (M7.5-7.7), depending on the site. Rock avalanche dynamics modelling indicates ~3-times greater mass would be required to reach the target sites with 50% probability, while the hypothetical scenario of a relatively dilute distal ash-cloud would require ~3-times less mass. We compare our results with the two largest recorded Aso eruptions, showing that a catastrophic eruption, similar to Aso-4, ≈M8, would present a high conditional probability of PDCs reaching the target sites, i.e. 32% - 96%, in the density current formulation and contingent on uncertainty in the erupted mass and on target site direction. This said, for Aso the current occurrence probability of such a colossal initiating eruption has been estimated <10-8 in the next 100 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the influence of gas pore pressure in granular flows through numerical simulations on horizontal and low-angle inclined surfaces. We present a two-phase formulation that allows a description of dam-break experiments considering high-aspect-ratio collapsing columns and depth-dependent variations of flow properties. The model is confirmed by comparing its results with data from analogue experiments. The results suggest that a constant, effective pore pressure diffusion coefficient can be determined in order to reproduce reasonably well the dynamics of the studied dam-break experiments, with values of the diffusion coefficient consistent with experimental estimates from defluidizing static columns. The discrepancies between simulations performed using different effective pore pressure diffusion coefficients are mainly observed during the early acceleration stage, while the final deceleration rate, once pore pressure has been dissipated, is similar in all the studied numerical experiments. However, these short-lasting discrepancies in the acceleration stage can be manifested in large differences in the resulting run-out distance. We also analyze the pore pressure at different distances along the channel. Although our model is not able to simulate the under-pressure phase generated by the sliding head of the flows in experiments and measured beneath the flow-substrate interface, the spatio-temporal characteristics of the subsequent over-pressure phase are compatible with experimental data. Additionally, we studied the deposition dynamics of the granular material, showing that the timescale of deposition is much smaller than that of the granular flow, while the time of the deposition onset varies as a function of the distance from the reservoir, being strongly controlled by the surface slope angle. The simulations reveal that an increment of the surface slope angle from 0° to 10° is able to increase significantly the flow run-out distance (by a factor between 2.05 and 2.25, depending on the fluidization conditions). This has major implications for pyroclastic density currents, which typically propagate at such gentle slope angles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua) have been characterized by a significant variability in eruption style and vent location. Densely inhabited cities are built on them and their surroundings, including the metropolitan areas of San Salvador (∼2.4 million people) and Managua (∼1.4 million people), respectively. In this study we present novel vent opening probability maps for these volcanic complexes, which are based on a multi-model approach that relies on kernel density estimators. In particular, we present thematic vent opening maps, i.e., we consider different hazardous phenomena separately, including lava emission, small-scale pyroclastic density currents, ejection of ballistic projectiles, and low-intensity pyroclastic fallout. Our volcanological dataset includes: (1) the location of past vents, (2) the mapping of the main fault structures, and (3) the eruption styles of past events, obtained from critical analysis of the literature and/or inferred from volcanic deposits and morphological features observed remotely and in the field. To illustrate the effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents derived from phreatomagmatic activity or from low-intensity magmatic volcanism. For the numerical simulation of these phenomena we adopted the recently developed branching energy cone model by using the program ECMapProb. Our results show that the implementation of thematic vent opening maps can produce significantly different hazard levels from those estimated with traditional, non-thematic maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

San Salvador Volcanic Complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe Volcanic Complex (Nicaragua) have been characterized by a significant variability in eruption style and vent location. Densely inhabited cities are in their surroundings, including the metropolitan areas of San Salvador (~2.4 M people) and Managua (~1.4 M people), respectively. In this study we present novel vent opening probability maps for these volcanic complexes, which are based on a multi-model approach that relies on kernel density estimators. Our volcanological dataset includes: (1) the location of past vents, (2) the mapping of the main fault structures, and (3) the eruption styles of past events, obtained from the critical analysis of literature and/or inferred from volcanic deposits and morphological features observed remotely and in the field. In particular, we present thematic vent opening maps, i.e. we consider different hazardous phenomena separately, including lava emission, small-scale pyroclastic density currents, ejection of ballistic projectiles, and low-intensity pyroclastic fallout. To illustrate the effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents derived from phreatomagmatic activity or from low-intensity magmatic volcanism. For the numerical simulation of these phenomena we adopted the recently developed branching energy cone model by using the program ECMapProb. Our results show that the implementation of thematic maps of vent opening can produce significantly different hazard levels from those estimated with traditional, non-thematic, maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pyroclastic avalanches are a type of granular flow generated at active volcanoes by different mechanisms, including the collapse of steep pyroclastic deposits (e.g., scoria and ash cones), fountaining during moderately explosive eruptions, and crumbling and gravitational collapse of lava domes. They represent end-members of gravity-driven pyroclastic flows characterized by relatively small volumes (less than about 1 Mm 3) and relatively thin (1–10 m) layers at high particle concentration (10–50 vol %), manifesting strong topographic control. The simulation of their dynamics and mapping of their hazards pose several different problems to researchers and practitioners, mostly due to the complex and still poorly understood rheology of the polydisperse granular mixture and to the interaction with the complex natural three-dimensional topography, which often causes rapid rheological changes. In this paper, we present IMEX_SfloW2D, a depth-averaged flow model describing the granular mixture as a single-phase granular fluid. The model is formulated in absolute Cartesian coordinates (whereby the fluid flow equations are integrated along the direction of gravity) and can be solved over a topography described by a digital elevation model. The numerical discretization and solution algorithms are formulated to allow for a robust description of wet–dry conditions (thus allowing us to accurately track the front propagation) and an implicit solution to the nonlinear friction terms. Owing to these features, the model is able to reproduce steady solutions, such as the triggering and stopping phases of the flow, without the need for empirical conditions. Benchmark cases are discussed to verify the numerical code implementation and to demonstrate the main features of the new model. A preliminary application to the simulation of the 11 February pyroclastic avalanche at the Etna volcano (Italy) is finally presented. In the present formulation, a simple semi-empirical friction model (Voellmy–Salm rheology) is implemented. However, the modular structure of the code facilitates the implementation of more specific and calibrated rheological models for pyroclastic avalanches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pyroclastic avalanches are a type of granular flow generated at active volcanoes by different mechanisms, including the collapse of steep pyroclastic deposits (e.g., scoria and ash cones) and fountaining during moderately explosive eruptions. They represent end-members of gravity-driven pyroclastic flows, characterized by relatively small volumes (less than about 1Mm3) and relatively thin (1--10m) layers at high particle concentration (1--50vol.%), manifesting strong topographic control. The simulation of their dynamics and mapping of their hazards pose several different problems to researchers and practitioners, mostly due to the complex and still poorly understood rheology of the polydisperse granular mixture, and to the interaction with the complex natural three-dimensional topography, which often causes rapid rheological changes. In this paper, we present IMEX&lowbar;SfloW2D, a depth-averaged flow model describing the granular mixture as a single-phase granular fluid. The model is formulated in absolute Cartesian coordinates (where the fluid flow equations are integrated along the direction of gravity) and can be solved over a topography described by a Digital Elevation Model. The numerical discretization and solution algorithms are formulated to allow a robust description of wet-dry conditions (thus allowing to accurately track the front propagation) and to implicitly solve the non-linear friction terms. Owing to these features, the model is able to reproduce steady solutions, such as the triggering and stopping phases of the flow, without the need of empirical conditions. Benchmark cases are discussed to verify the numerical code implementation and to demonstrate the main features of the new model. A preliminary application to the simulation of the February 11th pyroclastic avalanche at Etna volcano (Italy) is finally presented. In the present formulation, a simple semi-empirical friction model (Voellmy-Salm rheology) is implemented. However, the modular structure of the code facilitates the implementation of more specific and calibrated rheological models for pyroclastic avalanches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]