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Causality is an intriguing concept that once tamed, can have many applications. While having been widely investigated in other domains, its relevance and usefulness in the cybersecurity domain has received little attention. In this paper, we present a systematic investigation of a particular approach to causality, known as Granger causality (G-causality), in cybersecurity. We propose a framework, dubbed Cybersecurity Granger Causality (CGC), for characterizing the presence of G-causality in cyber attack rate time series and for leveraging G-causality to predict (i.e., forecast) cyber attack rates. The framework offers a range of research questions, which can be adopted or adapted to study G-causality in other kinds of cybersecurity time series data. In order to demonstrate the usefulness of CGC, we present a case study by applying it to a particular cyber attack dataset collected at a honeypot. From this case study, we draw a number of insights into the usefulness and limitations of G-causality in the cybersecurity domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling cyber risks has been an important but challenging task in the domain of cyber security, which is mainly caused by the high dimensionality and heavy tails of risk patterns. Those obstacles have hindered the development of statistical modeling of the multivariate cyber risks. In this work, we propose a novel approach for modeling the multivariate cyber risks which relies on the deep learning and extreme value theory. The proposed model not only enjoys the high accurate point predictions via deep learning but also can provide the satisfactory high quantile predictions via extreme value theory. Both the simulation and empirical studies show that the proposed approach can model the multivariate cyber risks very well and provide satisfactory prediction performances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling cybersecurity risks is an important, yet challenging, problem. In this paper, we initiate the study of modeling multivariate cybersecurity risks. We develop the first statistical approach, which is centered at a Copula-GARCH model that uses vine copulas to model the multivariate dependence exhibited by real-world cyber attack data. We find that ignoring the due multivariate dependence causes a severe underestimation of cybersecurity risks. Both simulation and empirical studies show that the proposed approach leads to accurate predictions of multivariate cybersecurity risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Internet-based computer information systems play critical roles in many aspects of modern society. However, these systems are constantly under cyber attacks that can cause catastrophic consequences. To defend these systems effectively, it is necessary to measure and predict the effectiveness of cyber defense mechanisms. In this article, we investigate how to measure and predict the effectiveness of an important cyber defense mechanism that is known asearly-warning. This turns out to be a challenging problem because we must accommodate thedependenceamong certain four-dimensional time series. In the course of using a dataset to demonstrate the prediction methodology, we discovered a newnonexchangeableandrotationally symmetricdependence structure, which may be of independent value. We propose a new vine copula model to accommodate the newly discovered dependence structure, and show that the new model can predict the effectiveness of early-warning more accurately than the others. We also discuss how to use the prediction methodology in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A security indicator is a sign that shows us what something is like or how a situation is changing and can aid us in making informed estimations on cyber risks. There are many different breeds of security indicators, but, unfortunately, they are not always easy to apply due to a lack of available or credible sources of data. This paper undertakes a systematic mapping study on the academic literature related to cyber security indicator data. We identified 117 primary studies from the past five years as relevant to answer our research questions. They were classified according to a set of categories related to research type, domain, data openness, usage, source, type and content. Our results show a linear growth of publications per year, where most indicators are based on free or internal technical data that are domain independent. While these indicators can give valuable information about the contemporary cyber risk, the increasing usage of unconventional data sources and threat intelligence feeds of more strategic and tactical nature represent a more forward-looking trend. In addition, there is a need to take methods and techniques developed by the research community from the conceptual plane and make them practical enough for real-world application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]