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Background: Indigenous populations in Canada and the United States (US) have maintained reciprocal relationships with nature, grounded in respect for and stewardship of the environment; however, disconnection from traditional food systems has generated a plethora of physical and mental health challenges for communities. Indigenous food sovereignty including control of lands were found to be factors contributing to these concerns. Therefore, our aim was to conduct a scoping review of the peer-reviewed literature to describe Indigenous disconnection from Indigenous food systems (IFS) in Canada and the US. Methods: Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-SR) and Joanna Briggs Institute guidelines, we searched MEDLINE, SCOPUS, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences, Sociological Abstracts, and Bibliography of Native North Americans. Data was extracted from 41 studies and a narrative review completed based on study themes. Results: The overarching theme identified in the included studies was the impact of colonization on IFS. Four sub-themes emerged as causes for Indigenous disconnection from traditional food systems, including: climate change; capitalism; legal change; and socio-cultural change. These sub-themes highlight the multiple ways in which colonization has impacted Indigenous food systems in Canada and the US and important areas for transformation. Conclusions: Efforts to reconnect Indigenous knowledge and values systems with future food systems are essential for planetary health and sustainable development. Traditional knowledge sharing must foreground authentic Indigenous inclusion within policymaking. Highlights: • The main theme identified amongst the SR literature was the lasting impacts of colonization on Indigenous food systems in Canada and the US, which is described through four key areas: climate change; capitalism; legal changes; and socio-cultural changes. • Less than 20% of included papers report author positionality, with only 7% of included papers reporting Indigenous authorship, emphasizing an opportunity for more reporting and Indigenous engagement in the future. • Loss of cultural knowledge and practices was highlighted by many articles reviewed. • Revitalisation of IFS must include authentic Indigenous engagement, support Indigenous knowledge frameworks, community sharing networks, education programs and co-management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Societal Impact Statement: Cultural use berries are prized foods and medicines across the United States and Canada, with almost 200 different species used by Indigenous Peoples. Berries are increasingly being impacted by environmental and land‐use change. Berry habitats, how and when berry plants reproduce, and the volume of berries available for harvest each year are shifting widely. These changes are impacting access to, availability of, and consumption of berries. Biocultural stewardship practices, like low‐intensity fire, transplanting, and thinning, can be used in response to these stressors to support berry plant health and productivity as well as a sustained relationship with this important food. Summary: Almost 200 different species of berries are used for food and medicine by Indigenous Peoples, with unparalleled nutritional and cultural significance among plant foods. Environmental and land‐use change is increasingly compromising access to, availability of, and consumption of berries. In this review, I consider (a) how climate and land‐use change are impacting cultural use berries across species and places, as documented by Indigenous Peoples and in the scientific literature, and (b) how stewardship practices are being applied to promote resilience and sustainability in berrying landscapes experiencing stress. Climate impacts on Arctic and subarctic berry species include earlier ripening, changes in taste, or increased variability in abundance. These same regions are experiencing a proliferation of shrubs, while forests throughout the lower 48 and Canada are suffering from suffocating fuel loads and stand densities that are not conducive to berry habitat for many species. In the Pacific West, berries are influenced by prolonged droughts and increasing spring and summer temperatures. Climate change impacts are amplified by shifts in land use for forestry and agriculture. Biocultural stewardship practices, like low‐intensity fire, thinning, transplanting, and cultural care, can be used to mitigate these impacts and promote berry microclimate habitats. There is opportunity for intertribal networking and knowledge sharing around berry stewardship practices that will support local and regional climate change responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central Asia is among the most heavily affected regions worldwide by climate change and water shortages. Impacts include changes in precipitation patterns, more frequent temperature extremes and increased aridity causing a negative impact on agricultural production, food availability, and environmental security. To combat this threat, it is important to enhance information literacy among all water users. This can be done through awareness campaigns, blended learning by providing the proper Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) programs and utilizing all available facilities. This will address relevant issues, such as miscommunication, complexities of transboundary water sharing issues, overexploitation of water resources, and poor flood-drought mitigation techniques. Proper and user-friendly lifelong blended learning for scientific information dissemination focusing water issues can provide stronger support to increase awareness among water users and decision policy makers. Worldwide, especially in North America and Australia, information literacy campaigns have proven successful. This strategy can be replicated in the Mountainous Kyrgyz-Kazakh Chu-Talas transboundary river basin. The issues concerning the Mountainous KyrgyzKazakh Chu-Talas transboundary river basin is elaborated and compared with Australian, Canadian, and US river basin management programs. The foresight analysis is presented, as to what would be a rationale to improve water resources more sustainably in Central Asia. Methodologies, programs, technologies, communities-based river basin committees, snow-water collection with agroforestry, and basin-based water market opportunities were analyzed to assess potential applications in Central Asia region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of sub-global participation in greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, this paper investigates the effectiveness of a Canada-U.S. emissions bubble under their existing regional trade agreement. It also explores the potential economic impact of carbon tariff harmonization through the implementation of a common Canada-U.S. external border tariff adjustment as a mean to address competitiveness issues. Using a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model the paper finds that the creation of an emission bubble between the two countries could improve efficiency. The findings also suggest that a carbon tariff harmonization policy could give rise to distributional issues among Annex I regions and could fail to mitigate the negative competitiveness impacts of carbon abatement policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses how 10 localities in the USA and England, recognised as leaders in clean energy and climate action, have used collaborative approaches to develop local climate change plans and energy conservation, efficiency, and renewable energy initiatives. It examines these planning and policy-making processes in the context of Margerum's [2008. A typology of collaboration efforts in environmental management.Environmental Management, 41 (4), 487–500] typology of “action”, “organizational”, and “policy-level” collaborations, as well as Gray's [1989.Collaborating: finding common ground for multiparty problems. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass] classification of collaboration in the “problem-setting”, “direction-setting”, and “implementation” phases. We conducted interviews with local elected officials, municipal staff, energy professionals, and citizen volunteers in each community, supplemented with an analysis of their adopted energy, climate change, and land-use plans. We find that despite the different government structures and political contexts between the two countries, there was a surprising amount of commonality in how the case study localities used collaborative planning to develop local climate plans and clean energy initiatives. These processes were most often initiated by local elected officials and/or high-level staff members, and then carried out in collaboration with local third-sector organisations and other community stakeholders. In the USA, collaboration was strongest at the policy level and in the direction-setting phase, with the distinguishing feature that citizen advisory boards or stakeholder working groups often took a more active role in shaping local plans and policies. The English localities had some of those same types of collaborations, but were more likely to also employ action collaboration, in the implementation phase, in which third-sector organisations coordinated with the locality to directly provide clean energy services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on findings from an analysis of data submitted through the Sustainability Tracking, Assessment and Rating System (STARS). STARS has addressed the demand for standard metrics to measure sustainability progress at US and Canadian colleges and universities, with expanding access to institutions in other countries gained through the launch of an International Pilot and release of STARS 2.0. Since its release in 2009, STARS has emerged as a reputable source of data that can provide a broad overview of the state of campus sustainability. The release of STARS Version 2.0 in 2013 improved upon the original reporting framework and also expanded accessibility of STARS to all higher education institutions worldwide. The findings in this paper tell the story of a campus sustainability movement that is quite young. As STARS matures along with this movement, STARS data will hopefully show a trend of continuous improvement at participating institutions. By participating in STARS and learning from examples set by other institutions, colleges and universities from across the world can be on the leading edge of moving toward a more just and sustainable world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In spring 2011, an unprecedented flood hit the complex eastern United States (U.S.)–Canada transboundary Lake Champlain–Richelieu River (LCRR) Basin, destructing properties and inducing negative impacts on agriculture and fish habitats. The damages, covered by the Governments of Canada and the U.S., were estimated to C$90M. This natural disaster motivated the study of mitigation measures to prevent such disasters from reoccurring. When evaluating flood risks, long‐term evolving climate change should be taken into account to adopt mitigation measures that will remain relevant in the future. To assess the impacts of climate change on flood risks of the LCRR basin, three bias‐corrected multi‐resolution ensembles of climate projections for two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios were used to force a state‐of‐the‐art, high‐resolution, distributed hydrological model. The analysis of the hydrological simulations indicates that the 20‐year return period flood (corresponding to a medium flood) should decrease between 8% and 35% for the end of the 21st Century (2070–2099) time horizon and for the high‐emission scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. The reduction in flood risks is explained by a decrease in snow accumulation and an increase in evapotranspiration expected with the future warming of the region. Nevertheless, due to the large climate inter‐annual variability, short‐term flood probabilities should remain similar to those experienced in the recent past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A set of 182 populations of 76 mammal species in the United States and Canada, examined in natural conditions with minimized disturbances or management effects, shows that responses to climate change include negative responses, such as elevational range contractions, upward shifts and decreases in abundance, positive responses, such as range expansions, and no detectable responses. Responses vary among and within mammal species but many are correlated with species traits, particularly the responses linked to high extinction risks (= climate change risk: decreases in population sizes, range contractions, local extirpations). The traits showing the strongest links to differential responses to climate change are 1) body size—large mammals respond more often and most negatively to climate change, 2) activity times—few mammals with flexible active times respond to climate change, and 3) spatial distribution—high-latitude and high-elevation mammals responded more often to climate change. Using these traits and two approaches to trait weighting, I modeled the relative climate change risk for all 328 terrestrial, nonvolant mammal species in the United States and Canada across 10 levels of risk (low = 1–2, moderate = 3–4, moderate-high = 5–6, high = 7–8, very high = 9–10). The models predicted that 15% of these mammalian species are in the high- and very high-risk categories, including species from most orders. Many mammal populations and species listed as of conservation concern due to other human impacts by national or international agencies are also predicted by my models to be in the higher categories of climate change risk. My intention for these models is to clarify for managers and researchers which, where, and how mammals are responding to climate change relatively independent of other anthropogenic stressors (e.g. large-scale habitat change, overhunting) and to provide a preliminary assessment of species most in need of careful monitoring for climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although scientists disagree about the rate at which Arctic ice is melting, climate change will greatly alter the northern latitudes in coming decades if greenhouse gas emissions are not curtailed. Many of the expected changes will be negative; already, permafrost is melting in Siberia, and apartments and factories are sinking into quagmires. The melting of Arctic ice, however, will also open sea-lanes to shipping and allow access to enormous oil and gas reserves beneath the Arctic Ocean. The prospect of increased Arctic commerce brings with it competition among countries and companies for control of the area’s riches, and international competition always carries the possibility of conflict. Three authors, all experts in national security and the Arctic, explore the military, diplomatic, environmental, and economic outlook for the Arctic in 2030: from Russia, Yury Morozov (2012); from Canada, Rob Huebert (2012); and from the United States, George Backus. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Multilevel governance poses several challenges for the politics of climate change. On the one hand, the unequal distribution of power and interests can serve as a barrier to implementing coherent policy at a federal level. On the other, these features also enable policy leadership among sub-federal units. In the context of wide variation in climate policy at both national and sub-federal levels in Canada and in the United States, this paper utilizes an original data set to examine public attitudes and perceptions toward climate science and climate change policy in two federal systems. Drawing on national and provincial/state level data from telephone surveys administered in the United States and in Canada, the paper provides insight into where the public stands on the climate change issue in two of the most carbon-intensive federal systems in the world. The paper includes the first directly comparable public opinion data on how Canadians and Americans form their opinions regarding climate matters and provides insight into the preferences of these two populations regarding climate policies at both the national and sub-federal levels. Key findings are examined in the context of growing policy experiments at the sub-federal level in both countries and limited national level progress in the adoption of climate change legislation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The production of maple syrup is an important cultural and economic activity directly related to the climate of northeastern North America. As a result, there are signs that climate change could have negative impacts on maple syrup production in the next decades, particularly for regions located at the southern margins of the sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) range. The purpose of this survey study is to present the beliefs and opinions of maple syrup producers of Canada (N = 241) and the U.S. (N = 113) on climate change in general, its impacts on sugar maple health and maple syrup production, and potential adaptation measures. Using conditional inference classification trees, we examined how the socio-economic profile of respondents and the geographic location and size of respondents’ sugar bushes shaped the responses of survey participants. While a majority (75%) of respondents are confident that the average temperature on Earth is increasing, less than half (46%) believe that climate change will have negative impacts on maple syrup yield in the next 30 years. Political view was a significant predictor of these results, with respondents at the right right and center-right of the political spectrum being less likely to believe in climate change and less likely to anticipate negative effects of climate change on maple syrup production. In addition, 77% of the participants indicated an interest in adopting adaptation strategies if those could increase maple syrup production. This interest was greater for respondents using vacuum tubing for sap collection than other collection methods. However, for many respondents (particularly in Canada), lack of information was identified as a constraint limiting adaptation to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Negotiations on a Canada-US Pacific salmon treaty began in 1908 but the first comprehensive treaty was not achieved until 1985. At that time, catches and landed values in the salmon fishery were near record levels and both countries viewed the agreement as a means of enhancing their individual prosperity. After a short period of co-operation, the 1985 treaty was undermined by arguments over catch sharing and the failure to rebuild some important salmon stocks. A revised treaty, agreed upon in 1999, established conservation of salmon as a priority and included a side-payment, in the form of two endowment funds designed in part to appease Canadian concern over catch imbalances. Major shifts in abundances combined with significant reductions in the value of the fishery were key factors in the negotiations. In this paper, we use the graph model for conflict resolution to examine the stability of the revised salmon treaty. Our assessment suggests that the treaty will be stable if the side-payment is maintained or enhanced even if both countries pursue aggressive fishing strategies. If the side-payment is not maintained, then it is likely that all groups will attempt to maximize their catch and Canada will seek a renegotiation of the treaty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In many forested ecosystems, it is increasingly recognized that the probability of burning is substantially reduced within the footprint of previously burned areas. This self‐limiting effect of wildland fire is considered a fundamental emergent property of ecosystems and is partly responsible for structuring landscape heterogeneity (i.e., mosaics of different age classes), thereby reducing the likelihood of uncharacteristically large fires in regions with active fire regimes. However, the strength and longevity of this self‐limiting phenomenon is not well understood in most fire‐prone ecosystems. In this study, we quantify the self‐limiting effect in terms of its strength and longevity for five fire‐prone study areas in western North America and investigate how each measure varies along a spatial climatic gradient and according to temporal (i.e., annual) climatic variation. Results indicate that the longevity (i.e., number of years) of the self‐limiting effect ranges between 15 yr in the warm and dry study area in the southwestern United States to 33 yr in the cold, northern study areas in located in northwestern Montana and the boreal forest of Canada. We also found that spatial climatic variation has a strong influence on wildland fire's self‐limiting capacity. Specifically, the self‐limiting effect within each study area was stronger and lasted longer in areas with low mean moisture deficit (i.e., wetter and cooler settings) compared to areas with high mean moisture deficit (warmer and drier settings). Last, our findings show that annual climatic variation influences wildland fire's self‐limiting effect: drought conditions weakened the strength and longevity of the self‐limiting effect in all study areas, albeit at varying magnitudes. Overall, our study provides support for the idea that wildland fire contributes to spatial heterogeneity in fuel ages that subsequently mediate future fire sizes and effects. However, our findings show that the strength and longevity of the self‐limiting effect varies considerably according to spatial and temporal climatic variation, providing land and fire managers relevant information for effective planning and management of fire and highlighting that fire itself is an important factor contributing to fire‐free intervals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates projected changes to rain-on-snow (ROS) characteristics (i.e., frequency, rainfall amount, and runoff) for the future 2041-2070 period with respect to the current 1976-2005 period over North America using six simulations, based on two Canadian RCMs, driven by two driving GCMs for RCP4.5 and 8.5 emission pathways. Prior to assessing projected changes, the two RCMs are evaluated by comparing ERA-Interim driven RCM simulations with available observations, and results indicate that both models reproduce reasonably well the observed spatial patterns of ROS event frequency and other related features. Analysis of current and future simulations suggest general increases in ROS characteristics during the November-March period for most regions of Canada and for northwestern US for the future period, due to an increase in the rainfall frequency with warmer air temperatures in future. Future ROS runoff is often projected to increase more than future ROS rainfall amounts, particularly for northeastern North America, during snowmelt months, as ROS events usually accelerate snowmelt. The simulations show that ROS event is a primary flood generating mechanism over most of Canada and north-western and -central US for the January-May period for the current period and this is projected to continue in the future period. More focused analysis over selected basins shows decreases in future spring runoff due to decreases in both snow cover and ROS runoff. The above results highlight the need to take into consideration ROS events in water resources management adaptation strategies for future climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We apply a hedonic framework to estimate and simulate the impact of global warming on real estate prices near ski resorts in the western United States and Canada. Using data on housing values for selected U.S. Census tracts and individual home sales in four locations, combined with detailed weather data and characteristics of nearby ski resorts, we find precise and consistent estimates of positive snowfall effects on housing values. Simulations based on these estimates reveal substantial heterogeneity in the likely impact of climate change across regions, including large reductions in home prices near resorts where snow reliability already is low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To explore the concept of sustainability in nursing using social media as a vehicle for discussion on the topic. Background There is a need for an increased awareness among nurses of the issues that are crucial for the healthcare sector to prepare for climate change and contribute to sustainable development. However, topics about sustainability and climate change are not a requirement of nursing curricula in Europe; social media provides an opportunity to raise issues and promote discussion. Design A thematic analysis of a Twitter discussion. Methods A Twitter discussion session hosted by @WeNurses took place on 24 March 2015 over 1 hour. Data were gathered via this online discussion hosted on Twitter, a social media platform. Following the discussion a thematic analysis of the posted Tweets was conducted. Findings One hundred and nineteen people posted nine hundred and ninety six Tweets, a reach of 3,306,368. Tweets broadly followed the questions posted by the team. Several threads related to the sustainable use of healthcare resources and the need to reduce waste was evident. A Word Cloud of the Tweets highlighted prominent words in the discussion: sustainability, nursing/nurses, curriculum, important, waste, practice, resources, student, plastic, health, gloves. Conclusion Social media is an effective way of engaging nurses and students in a discussion on challenging issues. Sustainability appears to be important for nurses, with a particular emphasis on resource use and the importance of sustainability topics in nurse education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This special issue represents an assessment of international organizations and transboundary networks governing natural resource and biodiversity issues in and among Canada, Mexico, and the United States. The management of natural resources and protection of biodiversity is a highly technocratic process requiring collaboration and information sharing among a diversity of actors to facilitate the development and coordination of policy addressing complex and multisectoral issues. Numerous bilateral and trilateral organizations exist to ostensibly facilitate transboundary governance, yet the scholarly knowledge of their respective roles has many gaps. In this introductory article, we propose a typology of international environmental organizations based on two dimensions: (1) whether their activities center primarily on capacity building or regulation, and (2) the extent to which they exemplify the 'bureaucratic' or 'post-bureaucratic' model of governance. Using this typology we provide an overview of the special issue's contributions in terms of their assessment of North American bilateral and trilateral environmental organizations and transboundary networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disappointment with international efforts to find legal solutions to climate change has led to the emergence of a new generation of climate policy. This includes the emergence of courts as new ‘battlefields in climate fights’. Cross-national comparative analysis of the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia supplements research that has found that litigation plays an important governance gap-filling role in jurisdictions without comprehensive national-level climate change policies. The inductive research design identifies patterns in climate change litigation. The three countries illustrate the varieties of climate policies, and thus serve as a useful entry point for thinking more generally about the interplay between climate politics and legal mobilisation. To improve theoretical understandings of the role of courts in climate change politics, the range of litigants and the variety of cases brought to courts under the umbrella of the term ‘climate change litigation’ are identified. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Annual maxima (AM) series of precipitation from 15 simulations of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) have been analysed for gridpoints covering Canada and the northern part of United States. The NARCCAP Regional Climate Models' simulations have been classified into the following three groups based on the driving data used at the RCMs boundaries: (1) NCEP (6 simulations); (2) GCM-historical (5 simulations); and (3) GCM-future (4 simulations). Historical simulations are representative of the 1968-2000 period while future simulations cover the 2041-2070 period. A reference common grid has been defined to ease the comparison. Multi-model average intensities of AM precipitation of 6-, 12-, 24-, 72-, and 120-h for 2-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year return periods have been estimated for each simulation group. Comparison of results from NCEP and GCM-historical groups shows good overall agreement in terms of spatial distribution of AM intensities. Comparison of GCM-future and GCM-historical groups clearly shows widespread increases with median relative changes across all gridpoints ranging from 12 to 18% depending on durations and return periods. Fourteen Canadian climatic regions have been used to define regional projections and average regional changes in intense precipitation have been estimated for each duration and return period. Uncertainties on these regional values, resulting from inter-model variability, were also estimated. Results suggest that inland regions (e.g. Ontario and more specifically Southern Ontario, the Prairies, Southern Quebec) will experience the largest relative increases in AM intensities while coastal regions (e.g. Atlantic Provinces and the West Coast) will experience the smallest ones. These projections are most valuable inputs for the assessment of future impact of climate change on water infrastructures and the development of more efficient adaptation strategies. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of significant environmental changes underway in the Arctic region, institutional change for Northwest Passage management is receiving increased attention. Due to the potential environmental and security impacts of regularized ship transits through the Northwest Passage, a number of informed observers have discussed the need for considering alternative means of governing the waterway. This article assesses four approaches to governing the use of the Northwest Passage, including the current institutional arrangement. Following an overview of the environmental change underway in the Arctic region and its impacts on the Northwest Passage, the controversy surrounding the international legal status of the waterway and the possibility that it may in future become a commercial resource are discussed. Advantages and disadvantages of three alternative institutional models of resource governance recommended for application in the Northwest Passage case are presented, along with those surrounding the Arctic Cooperation Agreement, the current institution in use. The analysis suggests maintenance of the status quo institution appears to be the most likely outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Analyses of long-term records at 35 headwater basins in the United States and Canada indicate that climate change effects on streamflow are not as clear as might be expected, perhaps because of ecosystem processes and human influences. Evapotranspiration was higher than was predicted by temperature in water-surplus ecosystems and lower than was predicted in water-deficit ecosystems. Streamflow was correlated with climate variability indices (e.g., the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation), especially in seasons when vegetation influences are limited. Air temperature increased significantly at 17 of the 19 sites with 20- to 60-year records, but streamflow trends were directly related to climate trends (through changes in ice and snow) at only 7 sites. Past and present human and natural disturbance, vegetation succession, and human water use can mimic, exacerbate, counteract, or mask the effects of climate change on streamflow, even in reference basins. Long-term ecological research sites are ideal places to disentangle these processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystems driven by wildfire regimes are characterized by fire size distributions resembling power laws. Existing models produce power laws, but their predicted exponents are too high and fail to capture the exponent's variation with geographic region. Here we present a minimal model of fire dynamics that describes fire spread as a stochastic birth-death process, analogous to stochastic population growth or disease spread and incorporating memory effects from previous fires. The model reproduces multiple regional patterns in fire regimes and allows us to classify different regions in terms of their proximity to a critical threshold. Transitions across this critical threshold imply abrupt and pronounced increases in average fire size. The model predicts that large regions in Canada are currently close to this transition and might be driven beyond the threshold in the future. We illustrate this point by analyzing the time series for large fires (>199 ha) from the Canadian Boreal Plains, found to have shifted from a subcritical regime to a critical regime in the recent past. By contrast to its predecessor, the model also suggests that a critical transition, and not self-organized criticality, underlies forest fire dynamics, with implications for other ecological systems exhibiting power-law-like patterns, in particular for their sensitivity to environmental change and control efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic activity can damage natural systems and reduce the flow of ecosystem services. The harms can be substantial, as our case studies vividly illustrate. Most degraded landscapes have at least some potential to be reclaimed. However, uncertainty plagues decision making regarding degradation and reclamation, in relation to the extent of the damage, the success of reclamation, and how exposure will change in the future. We examine how a range of observed decision biases can lead to far-from-optimal policies regarding how much degradation to allow and when, as well as how and how much, to reclaim degraded sites. Despite our focus on degraded landscapes, we believe these are generic biases present in a wide range of risk situations. Our three case studies show these biases at work. The first two studies are of mining operations in the United States and Canada, and the third is of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservationists have proposed methods for adapting to climate change that assume species distributions are primarily explained by climate variables. The key idea is to use the understanding of species-climate relationships to map corridors and to identify regions of faunal stability or high species turnover. An alternative approach is to adopt an evolutionary timescale and ask ultimately what factors control total diversity, so that over the long run the major drivers of total species richness can be protected. Within a single climatic region, the temperate area encompassing all of the Northeastern U.S. and Maritime Canada, we hypothesized that geologic factors may take precedence over climate in explaining diversity patterns. If geophysical diversity does drive regional diversity, then conserving geophysical settings may offer an approach to conservation that protects diversity under both current and future climates. Here we tested how well geology predicts the species diversity of 14 US states and three Canadian provinces, using a comprehensive new spatial dataset. Results of linear regressions of species diversity on all possible combinations of 23 geophysical and climatic variables indicated that four geophysical factors; the number of geological classes, latitude, elevation range and the amount of calcareous bedrock, predicted species diversity with certainty (adj. R² = 0.94). To confirm the species-geology relationships we ran an independent test using 18,700 location points for 885 rare species and found that 40% of the species were restricted to a single geology. Moreover, each geology class supported 5-95 endemic species and chi-square tests confirmed that calcareous bedrock and extreme elevations had significantly more rare species than expected by chance (P<0.0001), strongly corroborating the regression model. Our results suggest that protecting geophysical settings will conserve the stage for current and future biodiversity and may be a robust alternative to species-level predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Bali Action Plan as adopted under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2007, states that Annex I (developed) countries should reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, based on comparable efforts. Within this context, we have explored various comparable effort approaches (for example, equal marginal abatement costs for all countries) for reducing emissions by the year 2020 for individual countries and regions. In all calculations, the total reduction for Annex I countries as a group is assumed to be 30% below 1990 levels. In the analysis, we compare the reduction targets as calculated from the different approaches with the emission reductions as pledged by these countries as part of the Copenhagen Accord, as drafted under the UNFCCC in 2009. Our analysis indicates that the different elements in these calculations may cause a diversity in outcomes and that, therefore, individual countries may favour certain elements over others. These elements include (a) the choice of the approach itself (the same approach may produce very different outcomes for countries with diverging national circumstances, such as Canada and Russia); (b) the reference year (such as 1990 or 2006 emissions, is very important for countries with an increase in emissions since 1990 (e.g. the United States, Canada) or for those that have lower emission levels (e.g. Russia, the Ukraine)); and (c) rules on land use (these are important for countries with large forest areas). It should be noted that the stringency of the individual countries’ reductions as pledged, differs substantially from the stringency of the reduction targets calculated from the effort-sharing approaches. The current pledges by both the European Union and the United States, are lower than the reductions that would be obtained in the effort-sharing approaches for a 30% overall reduction in Annex I countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change is increasingly being implicated in species' range shifts throughout the world, including those of important vector and reservoir species for infectious diseases. In North America (México, United States, and Canada), leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease that is autochthonous in México and Texas and has begun to expand its range northward. Further expansion to the north may be facilitated by climate change as more habitat becomes suitable for vector and reservoir species for leishmaniasis. Methods and Findings: The analysis began with the construction of ecological niche models using a maximum entropy algorithm for the distribution of two sand fly vector species (Lutzomyia anthophora and L. diabolica), three confirmed rodent reservoir species (Neotoma albigula, N. floridana, and N. micropus), and one potential rodent reservoir species (N. mexicana) for leishmaniasis in northern México and the United States. As input, these models used species' occurrence records with topographic and climatic parameters as explanatory variables. Models were tested for their ability to predict correctly both a specified fraction of occurrence points set aside for this purpose and occurrence points from an independently derived data set. These models were refined to obtain predicted species' geographical distributions under increasingly strict assumptions about the ability of a species to disperse to suitable habitat and to persist in it, as modulated by its ecological suitability. Models successful at predictions were fitted to the extreme A2 and relatively conservative B2 projected climate scenarios for 2020, 2050, and 2080 using publicly available interpolated climate data from the Third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. Further analyses included estimation of the projected human population that could potentially be exposed to leishmaniasis in 2020, 2050, and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios. All confirmed vector and reservoir species will see an expansion of their potential range towards the north. Thus, leishmaniasis has the potential to expand northwards from México and the southern United States. In the eastern United States its spread is predicted to be limited by the range of L. diabolica; further west, L. anthophora may play the same role. In the east it may even reach the southern boundary of Canada. The risk of spread is greater for the A2 scenario than for the B2 scenario. Even in the latter case, with restrictive (contiguous) models for dispersal of vector and reservoir species, and limiting vector and reservoir species occupancy to only the top 10% of their potential suitable habitat, the expected number of human individuals exposed to leishmaniasis by 2080 will at least double its present value. Conclusions: These models predict that climate change will exacerbate the ecological risk of human exposure to leishmaniasis in areas outside its present range in the United States and, possibly, in parts of southern Canada. This prediction suggests the adoption of measures such as surveillance for leishmaniasis north of Texas as disease cases spread northwards. Potential vector and reservoir control strategies-besides direct intervention in disease cases-should also be further investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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An iterative chi-square method is applied to determine recent climate change of extremes of daily minimum temperature at two locations between an 18-year recent period and a 36-year prior period. The method determines for each of two locations in northwestern North America, Bozeman, Montana, USA and Coldstream, British Columbia, Canada, which values of the extreme daily weather elements are most significantly different between the prior years and the recent years and gives a measure of the weekly significance of that difference. Determination was made of the average percent of each recent year date (plotted weekly) that was impacted by extreme weather due to climate change as well as the percentage change in the frequency of the number of extreme days for each period of contiguous significant weeks. During the recent period at both locations, most weeks experienced a greater number of days of extreme high minimum temperature and a fewer number of days of extreme low minimum temperature. The weekly percentage changes indicate that extreme high minimum temperatures at both Bozeman and Coldstream are increasing at the rate of about 10% per decade, with a close corresponding decrease of extreme low minimum temperatures. The major changes in climate were very similar at both locations, with greatest warming occurring during the late winter and early spring and during the late July to August period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale atmospheric variables have been statistically downscaled to derive winter (December–March) maximum daily precipitation at stations over North America using the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV). Here, the leading principal components of the sea level pressure field and local specific humidity are covariates of the distribution parameters. The GEV parameters are estimated using data from 1949 to 1999 and the r-largest method. This statistical downscaling procedure is found to yield skill over the southern and northern West Coast, central United States, and areas of western and eastern Canada when tested with independent data. The projected changes in covariates or predictors are obtained from transient climate change simulations conducted with the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled General Circulation Model, version 3.1 (CGCM3.1) forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 forcing scenario. They are then used to derive the GEV distribution parameters for the period 2050–99. The projected frequency of the current 20-yr return maximum daily precipitation for that period suggests that extreme precipitation risk will increase heavily over the south and central United States but decrease over the Canadian prairies. The difference between the statistical downscaling results and those estimated using GCM simulation is also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current and projected future physical impacts of climate change are most extreme in the northern latitudes. The indigenous peoples in the North American arctic and sub-arctic rely on the availability of natural resources in mixed subsistence economies for nutritional and cultural survival and thus experience disproportionate burdens with respect to our changing climate. Arctic climate impacts exemplify how global phenomena and activities can significantly affect people locally in remote regions. These impacts are largely consistent throughout the region, irrespective of national boarders; however, indigenous peoples in Canada are better positioned than those in the United States to shape policy in a way that would ensure their adaptation to climate change. Political and industrial activity on national and global scales can have significant environmental, social and cultural repercussions on the local scale in remote areas. Remedies for environmental injustice will thus require strong cross-scale political and institutional linkages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this analysis, we undertake a comparative Ricardian analysis of agriculture between Canada and the United States. We find that the climate responses of the two countries are similar but statistically different despite the fact that the two countries are neighbors. Comparing the marginal impacts of climate change, we find that Canadian agriculture is unaffected by warmer temperatures but would benefit from more precipitation. US farms are much more sensitive to higher temperatures and benefit relatively less from increased precipitation. These marginal results were anticipated given that Canadian farms are generally cooler and drier than American farms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This article reports that Canadian-U.S. environmental relations manifest a growing importance of transborder state and provincial cooperation and policy-making. Under the joint Climate Change Action Plan, adopted by the New England Governors and the Eastern Canadian Premiers in August 2001, participating provinces and states commit to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2010 and 10 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. The provinces and states moreover pledge to ultimately decrease GHG emissions to levels that do not pose a threat to the climate, which according to an official estimate would require a 75-85 percent reduction from 2001 emission levels.

Discusses the key requirements for implementation of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). Reference to how the Russian ratification of the treaty approved it along with the participation of 126 other countries; Indications that the U.S. and Australia will not take actions to ratify the agreement; Reference to how the rules of the agreement were rewritten at the Conferences of the Parties (COPs) of the Framework Convention in order to lower the costs for Canada, Japan, and Russia; Goals of a post-Kyoto framework which will focus on fundamental aspects of the science and economics of global climate change policy; Suggestion for industrialized to take initial steps to make emissions reductions on their own.

Aim We describe and use a model, SHIFT, to estimate potential migration due to climate change over the next 100 years. Location Eastern United States. Methods Five species, currently confined to the eastern half of the United States and not extending into Canada, were used to assess migration potential: Diospyros virginiana (persimmon), Liquidambar styraciflua (sweetgum), Oxydendrum arhoreum (sourwood), Pinus taeda (loblolly pine), and Quercus falcata var. falcata (southern red oak). SHIFT is a matrix simulation model using simple inverse power functions to provide a distance decay of seed dispersal and is driven primarily by the abundance of the species near the boundary, the forest density within and beyond the boundary, and the distance between cells. For each cell outside the current boundary, the model creates an estimate of the probability that each unoccupied cell will become colonized over a period of 100 years. SHIFT is a `fat-tailed' migration model that allows rare very long distance dispersal events and colonization could occur up to 500 km beyond the current distribution boundary. Model outputs were analysed using transects through sections showing relatively low and high colonization probabilities as a result of low and high densities of target trees (high source strength) as well as high densities of forest (high sink strength). We also assess migration potential for species by concentric rings around the current boundary. Results Model outputs show the generally limited nature of migration for all five species over 100 years. There is a relatively high probability of colonization within a zone of 10-20 km (depending on habitat quality and species abundance) from the current boundary, but a small probability of colonization where the distance from the current boundary exceeds about 20 km. Whether biologically plausible or not, rare very long distance migration events are not sufficient to rescue migration. Species abundance (the source strength of migration) near the range boundary carried relatively more influence than percentage forest cover (sink strength) in determining migration rates. Main conclusion The transect evaluation revealed the importance of abundance of the species near the boundary, indicating that rare species may have much more difficulty in unassisted northward migration due to climate change. The concentric rings analysis of the model outputs showed that only the first 10-20 km of area would have a reasonably high probability of colonization. Rare, long-distance events permit colonization of remote outliers, but much more needs to be understood about the likelihood of these rare events to predict the frequency of outlier establishment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author discusses the approach to climate science. He says that climate science became the focus of right-wing political attack in the U.S., Australia, and Canada. He mentions that the key factor in the success of the U.S. special envoy for climate change is an effective communications strategy, which has yet to be learned or used by the climate-science community.

Regionally based, collaborative efforts from diverse stakeholders are critical to identify and address diverse and complicated environmental challenges. We present here an example from the Northern Forest Ecoregion of the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada, which currently is being degraded by a variety of simultaneous environmental impacts, including acid rain, fragmentation of landscapes, mercury and salt pollution of water resources, invasive alien species and diseases, and climate change. We propose five sustained, multigenerational actions to protect and restore the vital ecosystem functions of the Northern Forest Ecoregion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]