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During the outbreak of a disease caused by a pathogen with unknown characteristics, the uncertainty of its progression parameters can be reduced by devising methods that, based on rational assumptions, exploit available information to provide actionable insights. In this study, performed a few (~6) weeks into the outbreak of COVID-19 (caused by SARS-CoV-2), one of the most important disease parameters, the average time-to-recovery, was calculated using data publicly available on the internet (daily reported cases of confirmed infections, deaths, and recoveries), and fed into an algorithm that matches confirmed cases with deaths and recoveries. Unmatched cases were adjusted based on the matched cases calculation. The mean time-to-recovery, calculated from all globally reported cases, was found to be 18.01 days (SD 3.31 days) for the matched cases and 18.29 days (SD 2.73 days) taking into consideration the adjusted unmatched cases as well. The proposed method used limited data and provided experimental results in the same region as clinical studies published several months later. This indicates that the proposed method, combined with expert knowledge and informed calculated assumptions, could provide a meaningful calculated average time-to-recovery figure, which can be used as an evidence-based estimation to support containment and mitigation policy decisions, even at the very early stages of an outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The article examines gender differences in happy life expectancy at age 50 (LE50) and computes the age-specific contributions of mortality and happiness effects to gender differences in happy LE50 in 16 European countries. Methods Abridged life tables and happy LE50 were calculated using conventional life tables and Sullivan's method. Age-specific death rates were calculated from deaths and population exposures in the Human Mortality Database. Happiness prevalence was estimated using the 2010–11 Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. Happiness was defined using a single question about life satisfaction on a scale of 0–10. A decomposition algorithm was applied to estimate the exact contributions of the differences in mortality and happiness to the overall gender gap in happy LE50. Results Gender differences in happy LE50 favour women in all countries except Portugal (0.43 years in Italy and 3.55 years in Slovenia). Generally, the contribution of the gender gap in happiness prevalence is smaller than the one in mortality. The male advantage in the prevalence of happiness partially offsets the effects of the female advantage in mortality on the total gender gap in happy LE50. Gender differences in unhappy life years make up the greatest share of the gender gap in total LE50 in all countries except Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Slovenia and Sweden. Conclusion Countries with the largest gender gap in LE are not necessarily the countries with larger differences in happy LE50. The remaining years of life of women are expected to be spent not only in unhealthy but also in unhappy state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]