Search

A common method for assessing the energy potential of hydropower systems in Iran is the sequential streamflow routing with control on the energy-yield reliability. The method results in developing a reliability-based simulation (RBS) model that is used to analyze single-reservoir hydropower systems. In most of the cascade hydropower systems in the country, a single-reservoir RBS model is usually employed in the design and operation of each of the systems reservoirs. This paper presents a multireservoir RBS model considering the integrated operation of the systems. The model employs the general algorithm of the single-reservoir RBS model; however, with a single-period optimization submodel in determining releases from reservoirs during the system simulation. The objective function of the submodels minimizes the sum of reservoir releases and/or maximizes the sum of reservoir storages in each of the time periods, subject to a reliability constraint on the system’s energy yield. The single and multireservoir RBS models are applied in the Khersan hydropower system located in Iran as a case study. The multireservoir RBS, compared to the single-reservoir model, results in 7.9% excess firm-energy yield in reliability of 90%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reservoir system reliability is the ability of reservoir to perform its required functions under stated conditions for a specified period of time. In classical method of reservoir system reliability analysis, the operation policy is used in a simple simulation model, considering the historical/synthetic inflow series and a number of physical bounds on a reservoir system. This type of reliability analysis assumes a reservoir system as fully failed or functioning, called binary state assumption. A number of researchers from various research backgrounds have shown that the binary state assumption in the traditional reliability theory is not extensively acceptable. Our approach to tackle the present problem space is to implement the algorithm of advance first order second moment (AFOSM) method. In this new method, the inflow and reservoir storage are considered as uncertain variables. The mean, variance and covariance of uncertain variables are determined using moment values of reservoir state variables. For this purpose, a stochastic optimization model developed based on the constraint state formulation is applied. The proposed model of reliability analysis is used to a real case study in Iran. As a result, monthly probabilities of water allocation were computed from AFOSM method, and the outputs were compared with those from Monte Carlo method. The comparison shows that the outputs from AFOSM method are similar to those from the Monte Carlo method. In term of practical use of this study, the proposed method is appropriate to determine the monthly probability of failure in water allocation without the aid of simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]